>>> TWTR : Confirms holdings remain at 9.1%; May engage in discussions with boar

TWTR : Confirms holdings remain at 9.1%; May engage in discussions with board about strategy and may express his views via social media - 13D/A filing

From time to time, the Reporting Person may engage in discussions with the Board and/or members of the Issuer’s management team concerning, including, without limitation, potential business combinations and strategic alternatives, the business, operations, capital structure, governance, management, strategy of the Issuer and other matters concerning the Issuer. The Reporting Person may express his views to the Board and/or members of the Issuer’s management team and/or the public through social media or other channels with respect to the Issuer’s business, products and service offerings.

WAshington Examiner : 'Something is up': Jim Jordan spots major shift in Hunter

'Something is up': Jim Jordan spots major shift in Hunter Biden story
House Oversight Committee ranking member Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, gives his opening remarks during a hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, Monday, July 15, 2019.
(AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

A top House Republican thinks "something is up" as the federal investigation into Hunter Biden and his financial practices heats up.
Rep. Jim Jordan said on Sunday it "sure seems" the president's son is on his way to being indicted, though the congressman acknowledged he could not say for certain. He pointed to an upswell in reporting on the authentication of contents on a laptop believed to have belonged to Hunter Biden, coinciding with a wave of grand jury activity.


"You mentioned those two stories from the Washington Post 10 days ago," the Ohio Republican told host Maria Bartiromo on Fox News. "I understand they were four minutes apart. One was at 11:00. One was at 11:04. So two eight-page-long stories four minutes apart from the news organization that said 18 months ago there was no story here, this was Russian disinformation. That tells you something is up. You don't see the Washington Post do that."
While the New York Post led the charge in reporting on the contents of the abandoned laptop, which contained emails detailing Biden's business dealings and roller coaster personal life, other major media outlets sought to cast doubt on its authenticity, and Big Tech companies even took steps to suppress its spread in the final weeks of the 2020 election.
Jordan, who is the top Republican on the House Judiciary Committee, remarked how "interesting" it is that the "story has evolved" in recent weeks, coinciding with rising suspicions that President Joe Biden himself could be drawn into a federal criminal investigation, even as the White House has been adamant in asserting that the president is not involved and that his 52-year-old son did not commit any crimes.
"Remember, it started off as, 'Oh, it wasn't his laptop.' Then it was, 'Well, it was his laptop, but it was Russian disinformation.' Now it's, 'No, it wasn't Russian disinformation, but Joe had nothing to do with it,'" Jordan said.
"And now, finally, it is, 'Well, Joe had something to do with it, but he really didn't do anything wrong.' In fact, that's what his chief of staff, Ron Klain, told us last Sunday on the Sunday shows," he added. "So, my, how this story has changed. And now, we find out these text messages and emails that link the entire family, not just Hunter and Joe and — but also uncle, the — Joe's brother, James Biden, is involved in this as well."
Hunter Biden revealed he was under federal investigation shortly after the 2020 election. He has never publicly denied that the laptop belonged to him, but the younger Biden is "100% certain" he will be cleared of wrongdoing.

One particular email dated May 13, 2017, from investor James Gilliar to himself, Hunter Biden's business associate Rob Walker, and James and Hunter Biden detailed a "provisional" business deal with a Chinese company called CEFC. The email, in part, asked about “10 held by H for the big guy," as well as "10" for "Jim." It appears "H" is a reference to Hunter Biden, "Jim" is Joe Biden's brother, and "10" is a reference to 10%.
Hunter Biden’s ex-business partner Tony Bobulinski, a Navy veteran, corroborated the authenticity of the email in October 2020 and insisted the "big guy" was then-presidential candidate Joe Biden. The Washington Post recently reported on "verified emails illuminating a deal Hunter Biden developed with a fast-growing Chinese energy conglomerate, CEFC China Energy, for which he was paid nearly $5 million, and other business relationships."
Bartiromo noted Author Peter Schweizer has said the laptop includes messages to and from Hunter Biden that show him taking in at least $31 million in shady international dealings. She also brought up a New York Post report published on Saturday about messages appearing to show Hunter Biden complaining to his daughter in 2019 about covering family expenses. “I hope you all can do what I did and pay for everything for this entire family for 30 years,” Hunter Biden said. “It’s really hard. But don’t worry, unlike pop, I won’t make you give me half your salary.”
Asked to respond, Jordan said, "It sure looks like Joe Biden was involved," and talked about how there are "4.8 million reasons" to doubt the president's claim during the 2020 campaign that there was nothing unethical in his son's business dealings related to China and Ukraine.
"The thing that bothers me the most, though, Maria, is the conspiracy," Jordan added. "The Left always tries to — always says, 'Oh, there's these right-wing conspiracies.' The real conspiracy here was the Democrats, Big Tech, Big Media keeping this story from the American people just days before the most important election we have, an election for president of the United States, election for who's going to be the commander in chief."

The congressman said "maybe the worst of it all" was the 51 former intelligence officials who signed an October 2020 letter claiming Russian involvement in the Hunter Biden laptop stories. Joe Biden even called the story a Russian operation during one of the 2020 presidential debates with then-President Donald Trump.
"That letter they wrote where they said this has all the earmarks of a Russian disinformation campaign, that letter became the basis for Big Tech and Big Media to suppress this story and keep it from We the People in the run-up to our most important election," he said. "That's why we sent a letter to these 51 guys. We want to know who they were talking to, how they came to this conclusion, how they put that letter together, because that was the basis for the conspiracy that kept information from the voters right up before the presidential election."

>>> US Research Calls

Research Calls

  • Upgrades:
    • AT&T (T) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $22
    • Cameco (CCJ) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts

    • ChampionX (CHX) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt raised to $30
    • EPAM Systems (EPAM) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $390
    • Essent Group (ESNT) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $47
    • JetBlue Airways (JBLU) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at MKM Partners; tgt $13
    • KeyCorp (KEY) upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $27
    • Mizuho Financial (MFG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities
    • Photronics (PLAB) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel; tgt raised to $21
    • Regions Fincl (RF) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $26
    • Schlumberger (SLB) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt raised to $55
    • Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt lowered to $40
    • Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities; tgt $40
    • Wells Fargo (WFC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
  • Downgrades:
    • BioCryst Pharma (BCRX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $14
    • C4 Therapeutics (CCCC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $15
    • Cactus (WHD) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $52
    • CatchMark Timber Trust (CTT) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt raised to $10
    • Citizens Financial Group (CFG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
    • Commscope (COMM) downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James
    • KeyCorp (KEY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $195
    • Kinder Morgan (KMI) downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $18
    • Navient (NAVI) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $17
    • NVIDIA (NVDA) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt lowered to $225
    • SBA Comm (SBAC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at MoffettNathanson; tgt lowered to $380
    • State Street (STT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
    • Sterling Check Corp. (STER) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $26
    • Sumitomo Mitsui (SMFG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities
    • T. Rowe Price (TROW) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt $156
    • TC Energy (TRP) downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt raised to $57
    • Truist (TFC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
    • U.S. Bancorp (USB) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigrou
  • Others:
    • Accolade (ACCD) initiated with an Underweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $9
    • Alibaba (BABA) assumed with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $185
    • Allego Holding B.V. (ALLG) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen; tgt $19
    • Baidu (BIDU) assumed with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $240
    • Bilibili (BILI) assumed with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $35
    • GoodRx (GDRX) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $20
    • HealthEquity (HQY) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $95
    • iQIYI (IQ) assumed with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $6.20
    • Kanzhun Limited (BZ) assumed with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $37.50
    • Kingsoft Cloud (KC) assumed with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $9.50
    • Match Group (MTCH) initiated with a Buy at Loop Capital; tgt $140
    • NetEase (NTES) assumed with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $132
    • OneConnect Financial (OCFT) assumed with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $2.20
    • Pinduoduo (PDD) assumed with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $95
    • Qualys (QLYS) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research; tgt $162
    • Rapid7 (RPD) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research; tgt $122
    • Sea Limited (SE) assumed with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $196
    • Syndax Pharmaceuticals (SNDX) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $31
    • Tencent Music (TME) assumed with a Sell at Goldman; tgt $5.60
    • Tencent (TCEHY) assumed with a Conviction Buy at Goldman
    • Weibo (WB) assumed with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $37.50
    • Xiaomi (XIACF) assumed with a Buy at Goldman
    • Zhihu (ZH) assumed with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $4.70


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>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • ASX -1.2%

Other news:

  • T -22.8% (AT&T and Discovery close WarnerMedia transaction)
  • NIO -9% (has suspended production amid supply chain issues)
  • XPEV -7.5% (in sympathy with NIO)
  • LI -6.2% (in sympathy with NIO)
  • ZH -3.9% (files for ordinary share offering, no amount given)
  • CRGY -3.5% (files for $75 mln common stock offering)
  • NVDA -3.4% (asks stockholders to approve a Charter amendment to increase the number of authorized shares from 4 bln to 8 bln shares)
  • ADAP -1.8% (files for $400 mln mixed securities shelf offering)
  • TWTR -1.7% (Elon Musk has decided against joining TWTR's Board of Directors)
  • ALLT -1.5% (files for 12,785,917 share offering by selling shareholder)
  • AAPL -1.3% (EU to send another antitrust charge to Apple related to case that Spotify (SPOT) brought to their attention over music streaming rights, according to Reuters)

Analyst comments:

  • BCRX -5.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities)
  • CCCC -3.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities)
  • COMM -2.2% (downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up

News:

  • SAIL +29.6% (confirms agreement to be acquired by Thoma Bravo for $6.9 bln; stockholders to receive $65.25 per share in cash)
  • VERU +24.8% (Novel COVID-19 Drug Candidate Reduces Deaths by 55% in Hospitalized Patients in Interim Analysis of Phase 3 Study; Independent Data Monitoring Committee Halts Study Early for Overwhelming Efficacy)
  • AFMD +12.9% (Presents Updated Clinical Data from Phase 1/2 Study of AFM13 Precomplexed with Cord Blood-Derived NK Cells at AACR Annual Meeting)
  • GRCL +9.1% (to present data at AACR Annual Meeting 2022 showcasing early first-in-human results for GC502 in r/r B-ALL)
  • SPPI +7% (announces that the resubmitted Biologics License Application for eflapegrastim has been accepted for filing)
  • XAIR +5.5% (Beyond Cancer Announces New Preclinical Data Presented at American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Showing Ultra-High Concentration Nitric Oxide Therapy Anti-Tumor Effect)
  • SURF +4.3% (Presents New SRF388 Data at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2022)
  • FSM +2% (reports Q1 production of 103,098 Gold Equivalent Ounces)
  • WBX +2% (commences construction at its Arlington manufacturing facility, the company's first U.S.-based EV charger manufacturing facility)
  • NRXP +1.9% (files for 7,824,727 share common stock offering by selling shareholders)
  • TSVT +1.2% (bio presents new preclinical data on bbT369, an investigational dual-targeting gene-edited CAR T cell therapy, at the AACR Annual Meeting)
  • AMRC +1% (provides SCE project update)
  • SHOP +1% (plans 10:1 split of A and B shares, details "Founder share" aimed at making Tobi Lütke a 40% shareholder)

Analyst comments:

  • CTT +1.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert Baird)
  • ESNT +1% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
  • CCJ +0.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts)
  • EPAM +0.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

  • Gapping up:
    • VERU +33.3%, SAIL +26.8%, AFMD +15.1%, SURF +4.3%, FSM +2.7%, GRCL +1.7%, NTR +1.6%, TSVT +1.2%, CF +1.2%, AMRC +1%
  • Gapping down:
    • T -23.2%, NIO -8.4%, XPEV -6.8%, LI -5.4%, NRXP -4.2%, ZH -3.9%, ADAP -3.7%, NVDA -2.6%, ALLT -2.1%, CRGY -1.9%, TWTR -1.8%, LOW -0.9%, ASX -0.9%

(ZH) Morgan Stanley: This Yield Curve Inversion Is Different

Morgan Stanley: This Yield Curve Inversion Is Different

By Guneet Dhingra, strategist at Morgan Stanley
"The only thing we have to fear...is fear itself" – Franklin D Roosevelt (March 4, 1933)
An economic recession in the US is on the minds of all investors today – in no small part due to the inversion of the 2s10s Treasury curve. Observations over the last 70 years suggest that almost every time the 2s10s yield curve has inverted,a recession has followed close behind (it’s correlation, not causality though). We think that this time is different.We think that an inverted yield curve is here to stay, without necessarily being a signal fora recession ahead. To borrow FDR's famous words, the only thing investors have to fear about an inverted yield curve today...is fear itself.
Believers in the predictive power of the yield curve posit that inverted curves reflect rate cuts in the future, which in turn must be a sign of a growth slowdown ahead,and ultimately a recession. Unless one believes that the curve inversion in 2019 predicted the 2020 Covid recession, it is likely that the predictive power of the yield curve inversion would have been debunked in 2020 itself
The signal from the yield curve inversion worked better a couple of decades ago, when yield levels were closely tied to inflation, GDP and, ultimately, Fed policy. However, the yield curve today is uniquely affected by two factors which limit the macro signal in the curve.
First, a number of technical distortions mean that the yield curve is artificially flatter than comparable points in the past. A combination of:
  1. a significant amount of Fed QE,
  2. significant demand from defined benefit US pension funds, and
  3. sporadic flight-to-quality demand for Treasuries
... has depressed 10-year and 30-year yields well below the levels consistent with inflation and growth. We estimate that these distortions have kept the curve up to 50-100bp flatter than its true level. Arguably, a 2s10s curve below -75bp should be the new recession signal, instead of 2s10s below 0bp.
Second, the Fed's intention to deliver restrictive policy fits with inverted curves. The March FOMC dot plot shows that the Fed expects to see a terminal fed funds rate close to 3% in 2023, about 50bp higher than the Fed's perception of the neutral rate at around 2.5%. In essence, the Fed is telegraphing an inverted curve, and the rates market is reflecting the Fed's policy path. Importantly, the inversion priced into markets doesn't reflect rate cuts back to zero in 2024, but rate cuts back to a neutral rate of 2.5% (Exhibit 1) – hardly a signal for a recession down the line.
Our view that the yield curve inversion is different this time found resonance across various research teams at Morgan Stanley. In our collaborative note on yield curve inversion, our economics team highlighted strong economic fundamentals and alternative recession models signalling a low probability of recession. Our US bank analysts highlighted the case for continued loan growth for banks in the coming years even with some inversion. Our credit strategy team highlighted continued improvement in balance sheet leverage, strong liquidity and low defaults – not the hallmarks of late-cycle. Our REITs team notes the strong fundamentals for commercial real estate as well.
Can the curve keep inverting deeper without signalling a recession? The answer depends on how high markets can price the terminal rate. From a historical perspective many investors see 1994 as a template for this hiking cycle. In 1994, the terminal rate ended up 100-150bp above the Laubach-Williams estimate of the then neutral rate in that cycle. Investors currently see the long-run dot as the neutral rate – around 2.5% – and therefore markets could price a terminal rate100-150bp above neutral, at around 3.5-4.0%, and yet hope for a soft landing like in 1994.
Finally, could the Fed’s plans for its balance sheet limit curve inversion? The yield curve can steepen if the Fed considers selling Treasuries (not our base case), but the curve should not steepen due to quantitative tightening, where the Fed is merely allowing Treasuries to mature off its balance sheet. Contrary to popular perception, quantitative tightening (QT) is not the opposite of quantitative easing (QE). The ultimate impact of QT on the rates market depends on the US Treasury, not the Fed. And we think that the US Treasury will respond to QT by increasing short-term Treasury supply – more likely to flatten the curve than steepen it.