Barron’s Weekend Summary: Charles Schwab Has Had a Terrible Year. But the brokerage king won’t be dethroned according to Barron’s
Cover:
-Charles Schwab Has Had a Terrible Year. But the brokerage king won’t be dethroned according to Barron’s. For some advisors, the move to Charles Schwab from TD Ameritrade didn't go smoothly. The snags in the $1.3T Labor Day transition have come amid a trying year for the company. The stock is down 35%, bank deposits had fallen 28% year over year as of Sept. 30, and net new assets tumbled in July and August as some Ameritrade customers and advisors took their business elsewhere.
Interview:
-This week, Barron’s features David Samra, a portfolio manager at Artisan Partners, who considers the current market headwinds to be an opportunity to invest in consumer-focused companies with low valuations and long-term potential. Samra, based in Boston, has run the $28.2B Artisan International Value since its 2002 inception, and applies classic value-investing principles—the sort espoused by Benjamin Graham and his pupil, Warren Buffett—to non-US markets. Samra buys well-run companies trading at a significant discount to intrinsic value.
Tech Trader:
-Heading into its earnings report on Wednesday, Netflix’s shares had fallen by nearly a third over the past three months. Investors have been increasingly worried about Netflix’s future profitability and its ability to retain subscribers. Rather, Netflix delivered a surprise by materially beating profit and subscriber expectations, driving its shares up 16% the next day. For the September quarter, the company posted earnings of $3.73 a share, well ahead of the consensus of $3.49. Paid net subscriber additions came in at 8.8 million, versus Wall Street’s 6.1M estimate.
The Trader:
-While one should not dismiss the macroeconomic and geopolitical issues that are weighing on markets, overestimating their significance could also hurt an investment portfolio. Michael Antonelli, managing director and market strategist at Baird favors energy stocks, which have been getting a boost with oil trading above $90 a barrel. The Energy Select Sector ETF has been trading sideways this year but offers safe dividends. “High quality” consumer-discretionary stocks also look good and will benefit as long as the economy stays strong, he says. Retail sales rose 0.7% in September, and American Express posted yet another quarter of record revenue and profit as America’s propensity to shop continued, even if its stock fell 5.4% on Friday following the release.
-Quarter after quarter, the United States’ largest banks have proven to be resilient despite a challenging economic environment. They also passed the Federal Reserve’s stringent stress test in June, even after a spate of upheaval rocked the industry in March. Regulators have had to admit that the sector has been resilient in the face of stress, even as they prepare tougher capital rules. Earnings bear that out, with nearly three-quarters of banks beating earnings estimates, and the six largest ones—including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF has been trading in a narrow range since mid-March, when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed and Wall Street was in a panic over what bank would go next. While that has largely subsided, stock prices haven’t recovered. Now investors are worried about what comes next for the economy—and the impact on US banks, which fell again this past week.
Features:
-With several stocks trading for under 10X projected 2023 earnings and yielding 5% or more, investors ought to take a closer look. Some of the better plays include industry leader BlackRock, as well as T. Rowe Price Group, AllianceBernstein Holding, Federated Hermes, and Affiliated Managers Group. A stronger stock market like this year’s would normally boost the stocks because it leads to more assets under management and larger fees and profits. “The stock market is up, but it has been concentrated in a handful of stocks,” says KBW analyst Michael Brown. “That hasn’t improved sentiment enough to drive flows back into these stocks.” What could go right? Flows could become less negative, and third-quarter profit reports might offer some hopeful signs. Bond investments look more attractive than in the past 15 years, which could prompt investments in fixed-income funds.
-Frontier Communications has long been an undervalued stock. It got a positive catalyst last week in the form of Jana Partners, with the activist investor calling for a sale of the internet, television, and phone provider. Frontier has been transitioning from a copper wire to a modern fiber-optic cable one. The process has been slow and requires billions of dollars of investment before generating positive returns. Higher interest rates and a stock-market rout have only raised the cost of financing that transition. Once running, however, fiber-based internet costs less to run and performs better, allowing Frontier to charge more. Frontier says that 85% of its footprint has only one or no fiber competitor, which will boost adoption.
Europe:
-Nokia announced plans to cut up to 14,000 jobs as part of a cost-saving initiative after profit tumbled 69% in the third quarter. The Finnish telecom equipment maker said its plan will address the “challenging market environment.” It’s still early in the day but the cost-cutting measures may not spare the stock from a similar fate to its Swedish rival Ericsson, whose shares tumbled 6% Tuesday after it said tough market conditions would persist into 2024. Nokia stock fell 8.5% in European trading, while its American depositary receipts fell 9.7% in early New York trading.
Emerging Markets:
-no update this week
Commodities:
-The Chinese government is planning to place further restrictions on graphite exports. Graphite is essential for the manufacturing of batteries and China is the dominant global supplier. Export controls could raise prices of the material for electric-vehicle makers such as Tesla and intensify the search for alternative sources of graphite.
Streetwise:
-Stocks haven’t looked this overpriced in 20 years, says Jack Hough, citing a Wall Street economist. He cites the 10-year Treasury yield, recently up to about 5%, compared with the “earnings yield” of the S&P 500 index, or the price/earnings ratio flipped upside down, which is also near 5%. Why take a chance on risky stocks when safe bonds seem similarly priced? BofA Securities points out that since 1945, the correlation between rising real yields and falling P/E ratios has been weak, and negative. Stick with stocks, in other words. Another point the bulls make about the S&P 500’s valuation is that it has been driven higher by recent gains for seven tech giants that carry the most sway in the index—or that did until this past week, when Tesla had an earnings mishap, falling behind Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). The others are Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, and Meta Platforms, which report results in the week ahead; Apple, which is up the following week; and Nvidia, which reports closer to Thanksgiving. The P/E ratio for the seven has climbed from 29 to 45 this year.