The S&P moved back to within a couple percent of all time highs this week as US Treasury yields moved lower. The week’s data and trade developments were viewed as generally constructive for investors. May inflation readings, both PPI and CPI, undershot market expectations and were seen supporting Fed doves who will likely push for rate cuts later this year. University of Michigan sentiment had its first improved reading in 6-months, jumping above 60. Also the accompanying inflation expectation surveys cooled off from the jumps seen in the wake of Trump’s April 2nd tariff announcement. US and Chinese officials expressed hope after constructive talks in London led to an agreement to implement the de-escalatory measures announced last month in Geneva. Separately, President Trump and his team noted the July 8th reciprocal tariff suspension deadline could be pushed further out if they sense nations are negotiating in good faith.
It wasn’t all sunshine and butterflies though. Inflation readings did move in the preferred direction but still remained stuck above the Fed’s target, even without the emergence of notable tariff impacts within the data yet. Also growth concerns continued to mount after weekly initial jobless claims came within a whisker of 250K for the second straight week. Despite a solid take down in this week’s US treasury auctions, the unsustainable American fiscal trajectory remained prominent in the ongoing Senate debate on the House’s tax and spending bill. President Trump continued to champion the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’, but the GOP goal to get it to the President’s desk by July 4th seemed to be slipping, even as the late summer debt ceiling deadline fast approaches. It was also hard to argue that the US-China trade “deal” offered much that was truly incremental or substantive. President Trump and his team painted it as another watershed moment, but details remained murky and it is still subject to final approval by both Xi and Trump. Finally, geopolitical risks surged on Friday as, after weeks of speculation, Israel finally launched an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leaders with the tacit backing of the United States. PM Netanyahu emphasized strikes will last until the threat is removed. President Trump looked to seize the moment by calling the Iranians back to the bargaining table and demanding they reach a deal before enduring even worse death and destruction. Oil prices and gold jumped on Friday but those gains were quickly halved. Energy markets seemed to take solace in the fact that Israel at least for now has decided against attacking oil installations. For the week, the S&P fell 0.4%, the DJIA lost 1.3% and the Nasdaq declined 0.6%.
Corporate news was largely overshadowed by the geopolitical and economic news of the week, but nevertheless there were some notable stories. The most impactful corporate event was arguably the crash of an Air India flight on Thursday, the first ever fatal accident for a 787 Dreamliner. Shares of the beleaguered plane maker sagged, though investigators are still only starting to form theories on why the plane plummeted back to earth right after takeoff. Oracle reported another blowout quarter, noting AI demand continues to outstrip their ability to supply customers by a wide margin, infusing new energy into one of the markets most widely discussed and dynamic drivers. Apple held its annual developer conference without much fanfare, announcing some incremental new features for Apple Intelligence, but withholding its major AI upgrade of its Siri assistant until the Spring of next year. Two more multi-billion dollar IPOs had successful launches this week: Mobile banking technology company Chime opened 60% above its IPO price, while smart mobility tech startup Voyager opened at more than double its pricing before settling lower.
MON 06-09
(BR) Reportedly Brazil will propose a 17.5% income tax on all fixed income assets by eliminating exemption on income tax exemption for LCI and LCA - Brazilian press
(CA) Canada PM Carney: Confirms Canada to increase defense spending to reach NATO target of 2% this fiscal year - comments in Toronto
(CN) China reportedly to raise minimum wage standard and boost fiscal support for employment, health and education – press
(US) APR FINAL WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 0.2% V 0.0%E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Maintains Q2 GDP estimate at 3.8%
(US) HHS Sec Kennedy (RFK): Totally reconstituting Advisory Committee for immunization practices; New vaccine panel members are 'Currently under consideration'
(US) May NY Fed (NYFRB) 1-year Inflation Expectations Survey: 3.20% v 3.6% prior
AAPL Will announce new Apple Intelligence features throughout today's presentation; Opening up the Foundational Model that powers Apple Intelligence for developers to use in their apps, tapping into the LLM model at the core of Apple Intelligence – WWDC
HUAWEI.CN CEO: US is 'exaggerating' co's achievements related to the Ascend chip; Our single chips are still a generation behind the US - People's Daily (China) interview
NOVOB.DK Reportedly activist hedge fund Parvus Asset Management building stake; Parvus seeking to influence Novo's search for new CEO – FT
WBD To separate into two media companies, Streaming & Studios and Global Networks; Commences debt tender funded by $17.5B bridge loan to enhance debt portfolio
TUES 06-10
(DE) GERMANY SELLS €3.078B VS. €4.0B INDICATED IN 2.4% APR 2030 BOBL; AVG YIELD: 2.14% V 2.07% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER: 1.8X V 1,23X PRIOR
(EU) ECB Chief Lagarde: Coercive trade policies are Not a sustainable option to today's trade tensions - lecture at PBOC event in Beijing
(EU) EURO ZONE JUN SENTIX INVESTOR CONFIDENCE: +0.2 V -5.5E (1st positive reading since Jun 2024)
(RU) European Commission Pres Von der Leyen: EU formally proposes 18th Russia sanctions package; Confirms price cap on Russian oil to be set at $45/bbl (prior: $60/bbl); Confirms proposes restrictions on Nord Stream II gas pipeline; Proposes SWIFT ban for 22 Russian banks
(US) Chief strategist at BCA Research Marko Papic: Capital is moving away from the US as global power fragments; Expect higher Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, and relative underperformance of U.S. equities
(US) Reportedly House Republicans will try to fix issues with their megabill in the Rules Committee this week based on provisions the Senate parliamentarian has identified as non-compliant with the chamber’s rules – Politico
(US) TRUFLATION PROXY OF US AGGREGATED INFLATION INDEX AT 1.9% V 2.1% END-MAY AND 1.4% BEFORE LIBERATION DAY
(US) TREASURY'S $58B 3-YEAR NOTE AUCTION RESULTS: DRAWS 3.972% V 3.824% PRIOR; BTC 2.52 V 2.56 PRIOR AND 2.59 OVER THE LAST 8 AUCTIONS
(US) Sen Hawley (R-MO) plans to introduce legislation Tuesday to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour – CBS
(US) BOFA INSTITUTE: MAY TOTAL CARD SPENDING +0.8% V +1.0% ON AVERAGE IN APRIL; Notes May weakness in spending partly reflects declining gasoline spending, some payback from earlier tariff-related "buying ahead", and the impact of relatively poor weather; There are several signs these rising costs of living are putting financial pressure on some younger consumers
(US) Commerce Sec Lutnick on China talks: We'll try to finish things; Talks going really well, hope they can end this evening, could go into tomorrow if necessary - comments to media in London
(US) Science & Tech Advisor Sacks: China only 3-6 months behind US in AI
(US) HHS Sec Kennedy (RFK): Advisory Committee for immunization practices (ACIP) will have its new members in place by the June meeting; Promises not to bring 'anti-vaxxer' on to the committee
(US) White House: Bloomberg's report on Bessent as potential for next Fed Chair is false
(US) World Bank: Global economy will grow at its slowest pace since the 1960s during this decade
(US) Treasury Sec Bessent said to be contender for next Fed Chair – press
(US) Agriculture Sec Rollins: US looking to increase timber production by 25% - comments to media at White House
GME Reports Q1 $0.17 v -$0.12 y/y, Rev $732M v $882M y/y
GOOG OpenAI said to select Google in cloud deal for more AI compute – press
IBM Unveils its path to build the world's first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, setting the stage for practical and scalable quantum computing; To perform 20,000 times more operations than today's quantum computers
JPM TTN Summary of 13:00ET Morgan Stanley US Financials Conference 2025: There's chance that real numbers will begin to deteriorate soon; Want staff looking for M&A, but not pushing them to do it; Avoid overreacting to market or economic swings, maintaining conservative risk discipline and shunning exposures that aren’t fully understood
WEDS 06-11
(BR) Reportedly Brazil govt to unveil shortlist of rare earth mine projects to get $1B of support - press
(CH) Switzerland’s senate approved proposals to loosen strict controls on exports of war materials – press
(CN) CHINA RELEASES STATEMENT AFTER TALKS WITH US; "Not afraid to fight trade war but does Not want to fight"; Notes no winners in trade war and urges US to resolve issues via dialog; Vows to enhance cooperation with the US and reduce misunderstandings
(CN) China said to place six-month limit on its loosening of rare earth export licenses; Limit gives China govt leverage should negotiations sour in coming months - WSJ
(CN) US Commerce Sec Lutnick: There's no text on the deal, just an agreement after Xi approved it
(CN) Treasury Sec Bessent: If China upholds its end of Geneva agreements, 'big, beautiful' balancing of US and China economizes is possible; US May budget receipts +14.7% y/y following 9.5% increase in April - testimony to House Ways & Means Committee
(EU) Reportedly EU aims for US trade talks to extend past Pres Trump's July 9th deadline – press
(EU) ECB Chief Lagarde: Further shifts may be underway in global currencies; Dollar loses ground, but euro gains limited - Role of the Euro Report
(HK) Reportedly Hong Kong’s pension fund managers have earlier formed a preliminary plan to sell down their US Treasury holdings within as soon as three months if the US loses its last recognized AAA credit rating - press [**Reminder: Moody's joined S&P and Fitch at cutting US rating from 'AAA' to 'AA+' on May 16th]
(UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Reeves delivers Spending Review for 2026-29
(US) Atlanta May Apr Sticky-CPI (12-month annualized) 2.3% v 3.8% m/m; Core Sticky CPI (1-month annualized) 3.2% v 3.7% m/m (update)
(US) Commerce Sec Lutnick: When China slow rolled the rare earth magnets we put on counter measures but the Trump Xi phone call changed the trajectory; Tariff levels won't change from here; Focus is now moving to other trade deals - CNBC
(US) Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast sees May US CPI Y/Y (to be out this morning) to accelerate to 2.4% v 2.3% for Apr US CPI Y/Y; Also sees June US CPI Y/Y (to be out next month) to again accelerate to 2.7% (would be highest print since Feb)
(US) Musk: I regret some of my posts about President Trump last week. They went too far.
(US) TREASURY'S $39B 10-YEAR NOTE REOPENING DRAWS 4.421% V 4.435% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.52 V 2.67 PRIOR AND 2.61 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
(US) MAY CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.4%E (1st reacceleration since Jan)
(US) US official: Pres Trump to hold new China tariffs at 30%
(US) PRES TRUMP: DEAL WITH CHINA DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME; WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT
(IQ) US Embassy in Iraq preparing for evacuation due to heightened security risks - press cites Iraqi official
(IR) Israel said to be 'fully ready' to launch operation in Iran; US anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain US sites in Iraq; Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for the 6th rounds of talks this Sunday - CBS, citing sources
(US) Pres Trump: Less confident on Iran deal - podcast interview with NYP
AMZN Said to reorganize its grocery business with new exec who will integrate Whole Foods unit – press
AXP TTN Summary of 09:45ET Morgan Stanley US Financials Conference 2025: Airline spending remains soft, consistent q/q; Credit levels remain strong
ITX.ES Reports Q1 Net €1.31B v €1.30Be, EBIT €1.64B v €1.65Be, Rev €8.27B v €8.38Be; May 1-June 9th sales (cc) +6% v +4.2% in Q1
JBHT TTN Summary of 15:15ET Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference 2025: "The industry is starting to spark about cabotage**... that's really coming on; I think that's a big play on where cheap rates are coming from"
META Announces video gen for Meta AI app; Later this year, users will be able to edit videos alongside Meta AI with text prompts to make video edits exactly as user's imagine them to be
OPENAI.IPO CEO Altman blogpost: 2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights; 2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world; As datacenter production gets automated, the cost of intelligence should eventually converge to near the cost of electricity.
ORCL Reports Q4 $1.70 v $1.64e, Rev $15.9B v $15.5Be
VOYG IPO opens for trade at $69.75
THRS 06-12
(IR) EXPLOSIONS HEARD IN TEHRAN, IRAN; Israeli strikes reported by US media - Iranian press
(IR) ISRAEL DECLARES A STATE OF EMERGENCY; ISRAEL IS ANTICIPATING RETALIATORY ATTACKS ACCORDING TO ISRAEL DEFENSE MIN KATZ
(IL) ISRAEL OFFICIAL CONFIRMS THAT ATTACK TARGETED IRAN NUCLEAR SITES
(IL) Israel Defense Forces: Dozens of IAF jets have completed "FIRST STAGE" strikes against Iran
(IL) ISRAEL BELIEVES IT HAS KILLED SOME IRANIAN GENERALS AS WELL AS SEVERAL ATOMIC SCIENTISTS
(IR) ISRAELI DEFENSE FORCE (IDF) CHIEF: IRANIAN REGIME WILL ATTEMPT TO ATTACK USA IN RESPONSE
(IR) IRAN NEWS MEDIA ON ISRAELI ATTACK: Multiple military sites in Tehran have been targeted; Iran Natanz nuclear site and Arak heavy water reactor facility have also been targeted
(IR) IRAN'S ARMED FORCES SPOKESPERSON: US AS WELL AS ISRAEL WILL RECEIVE A 'HARSH BLOW IN RESPONSE;' IRAN WILL HAVE A 'DECISIVE RESPONSE' TO THE ISRAELI ATTACK - IRAN NEWS
(IR) IRAN SAID TO BE PREPARED TO DECLARE WAR ON ISRAEL- PRESS
(IR) INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY (IAEA): CONFIRMS ISRAEL HAS STRUCK IRAN'S NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT SITE
(IR) IAEA reportedly declares Iran is in 'non-compliance' with nuclear safeguards (1st time in 20 years) – press
(IR) Iran will launch a new nuclear enrichment site in a safe zone (in response to IAEA resolution) - state TV
(UK) APR MONTHLY GDP M/M: -0.3% V -0.1%E (biggest drop since Oct 2023)
(US) TREASURY $22B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 4.844% V 4.813% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.43 V 2.37 PRIOR AND 2.42 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
(US) MAY PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.1% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.6%E
BA (IN) Air India 787-8 Boeing Dreamliner plane crashes at India's Ahmedabad airport soon after take off; Enroute to London-Gatwick; Registration VT-ANB [**Note: No Boeing Dreamliner (787) has ever crashed in a fatal accident]
CAH Raises FY25 $8.15-8.20 v $8.12e (prior $8.05-8.15); Guides initial FY26 $9.10-9.30 v $9.06e; Raising baseline share repurchase plans to >=$750M per year - investor day
COHR Introduces Breakthrough Diamond-Silicon Carbide Material for Next Generation Thermal Management in AI and High-Performance Computing
MP (US) Reportedly US plans to use Defense Production Act for rare earths; Trump advisers see MP Materials Crop as a prime recipient of funding; Timeline remains unclear – press
MU Announces with Trump Administration Expanded U.S. Investments in Leading-Edge DRAM Manufacturing and R&D; Plans to Invest
NVDA CEO Huang: Will stop including China in its forecasts due to US chip export controls – CNN
CHYM ; Priced 32M shares at $27.00/shr
FRI 06-13
(IL) ISRAELI MILITARY SPOKESPERSON: WE MUST PREPARE FOR A LENGTHY OPERATION [**Note: earlier, Israel PM Netanyahu said strikes will last against Iran until "THREAT IS REMOVED"]
(IL) Israel Defense Min Katz: Strike on underground meeting killed most of IRGC air force brass in one strike
(IL) Israel Senior Official: Planned 14 days of operations against Iran – WSJ
(IR) TWO LOUD EXPLOSIONS HEARD NEAR IRAN'S FORDOW NUCLEAR FACILITY - IRANIAN STATE PRESS
(IR) Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: Iranian armed forces will leave Israel 'helpless'; Israel won't remain unscathed; Tehran won't go for half measures in its response
(IR) Iran President: Our legitimate and powerful response 'will make Israel regret its foolish act' - Address to nation
(IL) Israel Def Min Katz: Iran crossed red lines by firing into civilian areas; Will ensure Ayatollah regime pays heavy price
(US) US Pres Trump: I was made aware of the attacks before they happened; Hopes that Iran will still come to the negotiating table; Watching for what retaliation may arise; CENTCOM is on high alert
(IL) Reportedly Israeli Official commented that 'There was full and complete coordination with Americans' on Iran strikes - Israel press
(US) Reportedly two Israeli officials claimed that Pres Trump and his aides were only pretending to oppose an Israeli attack in public and didn't express opposition in private. "We had a clear U.S. green light," one claimed - Axios
(IN) Reportedly India govt asks state mining co. IREL to cease exports of rare-earth materials to Japan after China's restrictions to Japan – press
(US) JUN PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 60.5 V 53.6E; 1-year inflation expectations 5.1% v 6.4%e
(US) Tier1 week-to-June 12th US Truckload Demand Indicator at 54.1 v 52.6 prior; Remains in Freight Recession signal territory (in-line with the 54.2 average of the prior 3 Freight Recessions of '12, '15, '19)
Global Logistics Updates: New booking intakes have slowed since early June, indicating some ease in demand; Demand for TPEB shipping still remains strong; Sailing cancellations continue to fall; The East Coast and Gulf regions remain firmer due to less significant capacity injection compared to the West Coast
MAERSKB.DK Activates business continuity procedures after the attack on Iran, to limit impact on customers and trade flows; “At the moment we are not experiencing disruptions”
WMT Reportedly Walmart, Amazon and other multinational giants mull issuing own stablecoins in the US, potentially shifting the high volumes of cash and card transactions that they handle outside the traditional financial system and saving them billions of dollars in fees – WSJ
AMZN Said to be reorganizing its healthcare business into six pillars to simplify; Changes in response to losing some top healthcare execs in recent months - CNBC
