WSJ : These Charts Show Why Wall Street’s Gloom Over Deals Is Overblown

These Charts Show Why Wall Street’s Gloom Over Deals Is Overblown
The total number of U.S. deals is down from last year, but transactions worth $1 billion to $10 billion


Key Points
Wall Street bankers haven’t gotten the surge in deals they had hoped for under President Trump, but the picture hasn’t been all bad.
U.S. deal value so far this year is up around 3.8% at $750 billion, though the number of deals is down.
Global deal value is up over 28%, with countries like Japan and Canada seeing big jumps.

Wall Street bankers who were bemoaning a slowdown in deals are finding themselves now looking at a reasonably solid year. Maybe.

The mood in M&A circles has been lukewarm under President Trump despite a number of megadeals this year, including Google’s $32 billion agreement to purchase the cybersecurity startup Wiz and Charter Communications’s $22 billion deal for Cox Communications. The damped enthusiasm is partly a result of dashed hopes: Many bankers had believed the Trump administration would usher in a surge in mergers and acquisitions after a relative lull in the past few years.

The reality has been mixed. The number of deals in 2025 so far with U.S.- based target companies is down sharply from the same period a year earlier. But the total value of those deals is up around 3.8% at $750 billion, according to the London Stock Exchange Group.

The number of deals worth between $1 billion and $10 billion, including debt, has jumped compared with last year. It is the relatively smaller deals—those worth less than $1 billion—that have fallen, and those account for the biggest share of transactions.

The biggest deals—those worth more than $10 billion—don’t come along as often. So far this year, there have been 13 such megadeals for U.S. targets, including debt. That is down from 16 during the same time last year.

Even the biggest deals this year have been more modest in size. Blockbuster deals in recent years have included ExxonMobil’s $60 billion deal for Pioneer Natural Resources in 2023 and Microsoft’s $75 billion acquisition of Activision in 2022, which dwarf the biggest transactions so far this year.

Many dealmakers have said they are still unsure about the Trump administration’s approach to antitrust regulation.

The picture also varies by sector. Some industries that are more insulated from tariffs, such as finance and technology, have seen a big pickup in transactions from last year. Consumer-products deals, meanwhile, are down from last year.

Dealmaking has been looking a lot better outside the U.S. Global deal value is up more than 28%, with countries including Japan and Canada seeing big jumps.

Still, the U.S. remains by far the biggest M&A market.

FT : Oil in the new age of volatility

Oil in the new age of volatility
High prices will undermine Trump’s plans to drive inflation lower and make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates

In recent years, June Fridays have often been viewed by financiers as a good moment to work from home. Not now. 

As news spread about the Israeli air strikes on Iran, traders across Wall Street and London — not to mention Asia — rushed back to their offices to prepare for the inevitable storm.

It swiftly materialised: oil prices surged (initially by around 13 per cent), stock prices fell (initially by 1 per cent in the US), and the dollar reversed its recent downward slide. And while these moves were later partly erased, volatility is likely to stay high; particularly since US President Donald Trump has warned that without a deal the next “already planned attacks” by Israel will be “even more brutal”.

So what should investors think? There is good(ish) and bad news. The former revolves around the issue of oil. At first glance, it seems reasonable to assume that higher oil prices will be a nasty blow to global growth.

For while Iran “only” produces about 3.3mn barrels of oil a day, according to S&P — about 2 per cent of the global total — the real threat is that if further conflict shuts the Strait of Hormuz it will undermine shipping. Indeed, ING Barings expects that in an extreme, worst-case scenario — ie a long blockage of the strait — oil prices could double to a record high of $150 later this year.

Twentieth century history has shown how damaging oil price jumps can be. And with the World Bank having just cut its outlook for global growth by almost half a percentage point to 2.3 per cent — the lowest since 2008 — now is a bad moment for another shock.

While Trump claimed on Friday that the strikes would eventually be the “greatest thing ever for the market”, the repercussions create short-term stress. High oil prices will undermine Trump’s team’s plan to drive inflation lower. It will also make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, given the risks of stagflation. For Europe, it is even worse.

But here is the good news, or at least the less depressing issue: one of the more remarkable but oft-ignored developments in recent decades is that the so-called “oil intensity” of global economies — ie the amount of barrels needed to fuel each unit of growth — has inexorably fallen.

In 1975, for example, the World Bank calculates that 0.12 “tonnes of oil equivalent” (TOE) was needed to produce $1,000 of GDP. By 2022, however, that was just 0.05, due to spreading renewable energy sources, like solar, and rising industrial efficiency.

Thus we do not face your grandfather’s — or father’s — economy, to cite the tagline. Shocks like the Israeli attack need not be as devastating as before; or not if the main transmission channel of this shock is oil.

However, the bad news is that oil is not the only transmission channel right now; instead, I suspect that the most important channel is investor psychology.

For what the Israeli strikes have done is intensify the perception that we are not just beset by rising geopolitical instability, but a zeitgeist shift too. A vicious competition for hegemonic power seems to be displacing even the fig leaf of international collaborative norms and laws.

Or, to cite Trump again, events are being driven not by a sense of universal law, but by the question of who has “the cards” (or not) of power; Israel thus feels free to bomb Iran using its military “cards”, irrespective of any UN norms.

That is disorientating — if not terrifying — for investors raised to predict the future with neat economic models. After all, in the neoliberal era those models typically excluded messy politics — and assumed that the rule of law was consistent, in the domestic and international sphere. “The traditional world order — in which economics shaped politics — has been turned on its head,” as Pimco told its clients this week: “Politics [are] now driving economics.”

So what should investors do? One essential step is to realise that while the old economic models are often useful, they are also now dangerously incomplete.

A second is to read more financial history, sociology and psychology. I personally find that useful ways to frame today’s events can be found in the writings of political scientists like Albert Hirschman and Carl Schmidt or economists John Maynard Keynes and Charles Kindleberger. Anthropologists such as David Graeber, Arjun Appadurai and James Scott help too.

Third, we must recognise that in a world where “the fragmentation of trade and security alliances is becoming a potent source of volatility”, to cite Pimco again, it is essential to diversify portfolios, take a long view of events — and a deep breath.

The bottom line, then, if you work in finance, is don’t plan many Fridays off this summer. That is not just because of rising Middle East tensions; soaring debt, currency dislocation, disrupted trade — and a US president determined to remake the global order — all present risks too. Volatility is now a feature, not a bug.

FT : UK moves jets to Middle East after Iran threat

UK moves jets to Middle East after Iran threat
Sir Keir Starmer says move is ‘contingency’ measure to support regional security

The UK is moving additional fighter jets and other military aircraft to the Middle East, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on Saturday, after Iran threatened to attack British bases in the region if they assisted Israel.

Starmer said the move was a “contingency” measure to support regional security but hinted the UK might also provide defensive support to Israel in its confrontation with Iran.

“We are moving assets to the region, including jets, and that is for contingency support in the region,” Starmer told reporters after being asked about the Iranian threats.

“I will be clear-eyed in relation to our duties and obligations and my duties as prime minister . . . I will always make the right decisions for the UK and our allies.”

Starmer declined to discuss operational issues but said the situation was “intense” and “fast moving”.

The UK was not involved in Israel’s defence during the first wave of Iranian retaliatory attacks on Friday evening, according to people familiar with the situation.

On Saturday Iran’s state media said that UK, French and US bases in the region would come under attack if the countries helped Israel in any way. Britain has access to bases in Qatar and the UAE and a site in Bahrain.

Starmer said he had a “good and constructive” discussion with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, on Friday, adding that it included talks “about the safety and security of Israel, as you would expect between two allies”.

Starmer, who is flying to Canada to meet Prime Minister Mark Carney in Ottawa before travelling on to the G7 meeting in Alberta, emphasised that the UK was urging all sides to back away from further conflict.

“The message is: de-escalate,” Starmer said. “We do have long-standing concerns about the nuclear programme Iran has. We do recognise Israel’s right to self-defence. But I’m absolutely clear that this needs to de-escalate. There is a huge risk of escalation for the region.”

He also warned of the effect a heightened conflict could have on the global economy. “You can see the impact already on the economy and oil prices. And of course, all of this is linked to what’s going on in Gaza. So you can see why my strong position is: this needs to de-escalate,” he said.

The government said that as part of the contingency measure, additional “fast jets” and “refuelling aircraft” were being sent from the UK to the Middle East.

The aircraft began preparing to deploy on Friday morning, the government said, “when it was clear the situation in the region was deteriorating”.

The UK already has RAF jets stationed in the region as part of its contribution to Operation Shader, which targets remnants of the Isis jihadi group.

Starmer said he had discussed de-escalation with US President Donald Trump on Friday and with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Saturday. He said he expected to hold more calls with world leaders while on the flight to Canada.

>>> Weekend Papers Summary

FINANCIAL TIMES
-Allies of Donald Trump and Elon Musk have urged the US president and his billionaire backer to repair their relationship to limit the political and commercial damage from the recent split over the president's signature tax bill. The fissure threatens to derail the White House's legislative agenda and wreck a hard-won alliance between Silicon Valley and Washington. Texas Senator Ted Cruz expressed disappointment and hope for a reconciliation. Tesla CEO Elon Musk responded positively to hedge fund manager Bill Ackman's urging to "make peace for the benefit of our great country." Trump claimed he was not even thinking about Elon and urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
-Cyber crime and espionage have become a significant security and economic threat due to the revolutionary capabilities of artificial intelligence. Cybersecurity companies, police, military, intelligence services, and think-tanks have issued warnings about the dangers of a lax approach to network security, but the message can fail to reach the public due to cost or complacency. Recent hacks against Marks and Spencer, the Co-op, and Harrods have generated attention and concern, but cyber security professionals have been frustrated that Synnovis, a blood testing and transfusions company, did not receive the same scrutiny. Marks and Spencer is expecting a £300M reduction in annual profits due to the cyber-attack, while Synnovis suffered a ransomware attack in June.
-Donald Trump has announced a new round of high-level trade talks between the US and China in London, following a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The talks will be attended by Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, commerce Howard Lutnick, and US trade representative Jamieson Greer. The meeting is expected to go well, as the Chinese embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment. The talks come two months after Trump's "liberation day" tariffs escalated levies between the world's largest economies, reaching as high as 145%.
-Palestinians, desperate for supplies after Israel's over two-month blockade, have been forced to seek food from GHF. The Israeli army has used tanks, quadcopter drones, and snipers to attack Palestinians waiting for the distribution site. Telecoms worker Ehab Jomaa and five friends took cover in the ruins of a bombed-out beach hotel before being shot by a quadcopter. Witnesses reported that the run down the final stretch to the distribution site began around 5am, and many Palestinians found all the food gone. Many Palestinians have tried to reach the site several days in a row, despite the killings, as they are hungry after Israel's siege.
-FT's network of correspondents has analyzed the biggest global movers since the inauguration to identify which are struggling and which are triumphing under Donald Trump's policies. European defense companies and Chinese technology giants are among the winners, while Silicon Valley has some winners and many losers.
-The OECD annual meeting in Paris brought together world trade ministers for the first time since Trump imposed his "liberation day" tariffs. The collective challenge was clear, as governments seemed busier than ever cobbling together deals with Washington. The US message was clear: "We have a big trade deficit we need to deal with; what matters is unilateral power, which we have." This is the way the world is going to look, so you better get used to it. When a clutch of ministers later met to discuss reforming the World Trade Organization, the 30-year-old global body that has become increasingly marginalized, the conversation was no easier.
-St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem has predicted that Donald Trump's trade war could lead to a sustained inflation burst at "50-50". He warned US rate-setters would face uncertainty through the summer, with Trump's levies potentially boosting inflation for a quarter or two. However, the impact of tariffs on prices could last longer. The Trump administration has already raised US tariffs on trading partners to the highest level in almost 90 years, threatening to fuel higher inflation and slow economic growth. Policymakers have adopted a wait-and-see approach after cutting interest rates by 1 percentage point in the second half of last year.
-Gemini, a cryptocurrency exchange run by the Winklevoss twins, has filed to list in the US to capitalize on the increasing demand for digital asset companies. The company filed confidential paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission for an initial public offering, following the double-digit increase in stablecoin operator Circle. The US election of President Donald Trump has rekindled investor enthusiasm for crypto assets, with Gemini being one of the beneficiaries. Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, who founded Gemini in 2014, were vocal critics of the regulatory clampdown on digital asset companies and became active supporters of Trump. They are also among the largest personal holders of bitcoin, with about 70,000 coins. Bitcoin is currently trading at about $105,000, just shy of its record high.
-South Korean solar cell maker OCI Holdings is boosting production in the US despite President Trump's push to cut clean energy subsidies. The company plans to invest $1.2B to increase its Texas plant's annual cell-making capacity to 10GW by 2027, equivalent to 10 nuclear power plants. The increased energy demands from data centres in the US will fuel demand for solar power, and South Korean makers could fill the gap, especially as Chinese groups face tariffs. OCI's chair and co-chief executive, Woohyun Lee, believes that the US has big growth opportunities due to tight energy supply and the need for solar power to meet rising energy demand.
NEW YORK TIMES
-Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia, who was mistakenly deported to El Salvador, has been flown back to the US to face charges of transporting undocumented migrants. The Trump administration's decision to bring him back could end the most high-profile court battle over President Trump's authority to seize and deport immigrants. The decision to pull Garcia out of El Salvador and put him on trial in an American courtroom could provide an offramp for the Trump administration, which had opposed court orders requiring the government to return him after his wrongful removal in March. The 10-page indictment filed in Federal District Court in Nashville may also be an effort to save face, as it may avoid a broader legal confrontation.
-Cybercrime and espionage have become a significant security and economic threat due to the revolutionary capabilities of artificial intelligence. Cybersecurity companies, police, military, intelligence services, and think-tanks have issued warnings about the dangers of a lax approach to network security, but the message can fail to reach the public due to cost or complacency. Recent hacks against Marks and Spencer, the Co-op, and Harrods have generated attention and concern, but cyber security professionals have been frustrated that Synnovis, a blood testing and transfusions company, did not receive the same scrutiny. Marks and Spencer is expecting a £300mn reduction in annual profits due to the cyber attack, while Synnovis suffered a ransomware attack in June.
-The Supreme Court has granted Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency access to sensitive records of millions of Americans held by the Social Security Administration. The Trump administration sought the data to combat waste and fraud and modernize operations. Two labor unions and an advocacy group sued to block access, arguing that the information was deeply personal and protected by privacy laws. The court allowed DOGE access to the necessary records, allowing the agency to continue its work.
-The Trump White House has raised concerns about potential security threats from Chinese Communist Party visitors to the US. However, the administration has allowed a Chinese government group member to access the president and the White House through a plan to sell memecoins. President Trump launched memecoins just before his inauguration, and his business partners created a contest in April offering top buyers a tour of the White House and a private dinner with Trump at his Virginia golf club. One buyer, He Tianying, is a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.
-Vice President JD Vance's practice of blocking Biden administration nominees for U.S. attorney during his tenure in the Senate has been cited by a senior Democrat as a precedent for insisting on the same standard for President Trump's federal prosecutor nominees, potentially jeopardizing their confirmation. Senator Richard J. Durbin of Illinois plans to adhere to the Vance precedent for Trump prosecutors unless Republicans offer some concessions. U.S. attorney nominees typically pass through the Senate expeditiously once they clear an FBI background check and scrutiny by the Judiciary Committee. Durbin noted that Democrats had followed this practice in agreeing to confirm scores of prosecutors in Trump's first term.
-President Trump has suggested that he might eliminate Elon Musk's federal contracts to save money in the budget. However, this is not as easy as Trump suggests, as the Pentagon and NASA are heavily reliant on SpaceX for orbiting and moving government data. Trump could use his ability to instruct federal regulators to intensify oversight of Musk's business operations to punish him. This would reverse a slowdown in regulatory actions that benefited Musk's businesses after Trump was elected. Steven L. Schooner, a former White House contracts lawyer and professor at George Washington University, believes that selectively ramping up oversight would be difficult in an administration that has defined itself by reducing regulation and oversight.
-On June 6, 2025, federal agents in tactical gear threw flash-bang grenades during an immigration raid on a clothing wholesaler in Los Angeles's Fashion District. The operation was part of three immigration sweeps in Los Angeles, including one at a Home Depot where day laborers gather for work. The raid began at 9:15 a.m. and involved dozens of agents wearing helmets and green camouflage, some carrying riot shields and others with rifles and shotguns loaded with less-than-lethal ammunition.

NEW YORK POST
-Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has been criticized by several Trump administration officials for her opposition to federal efforts to arrest illegal immigrants. Bass stated that she will not stand for this, as police used flash bangs to disperse the violent mob of protesters who descended on the arrest sites. She also stated that her office is in close coordination with immigrant rights community organizations. White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller dismissed Bass' declaration, stating that she has no say in this at all and that federal law is supreme and will be enforced.
-The public breakup between Elon Musk and President Trump has sparked concerns about SpaceX's future. Trump relies on Musk's privately owned firm to fulfill the administration's plans for NASA's return to the moon, ongoing operations at the International Space Station, a classified deal with US intelligence to build hundreds of spy satellites, and expanding internet access to rural parts of America. SpaceX, known for building and launching rockets and the Starlink satellite internet network, has approximately $22B in government contracts on the books. Musk threatened to decommission a roughly $5B deal to build the Dragon spacecraft for NASA, which Trump later reversed course on. A Republican consultant connected with Trump said that Trump could cancel most deals and contracts if he wants, but the government may still have to pay them based on contract details. The split likely works in both of their favors, as Elon distanced himself from Trump in a public way to get his businesses back on track.

CrunchBase : The Week’s Biggest Funding Rounds: Scale AI Tops Busy Week For AI I

The Week’s Biggest Funding Rounds: Scale AI Tops Busy Week For AI Investment

It was another big week for AI-related funding, topped off by Scale AI’s massive new investment from Meta. We also saw big rounds for startups in sectors including cybersecurity, networking, enterprise software and robotics, among other areas.

1. Scale AI, $14.3B, gen AI: San Francisco-based Scale AI, a provider of training data and model evaluation for AI applications, announced Thursday that it raised a new investment, reportedly totaling $14.3 billion, from Meta at a valuation of $29 billion. The agreement will also expand Scale and Meta’s commercial relationship, with Scale’s founder, Alexandr Wang, joining Meta to work on its AI efforts.

2. Cyera, $540M, cybersecurity: Data security platform Cyera announced that it raised $540 million in a Series E round with backers including Georgian, Greenoaks and Lightspeed Venture Partners. The round brings total funding for the New York- and Israel-headquartered company to $1.3 billion, per Crunchbase data.

3. Meter, $170M, networking: San Francisco-based networking infrastructure provider Meter announced that it raised $170 million in a Series C financing led by General Catalyst. Meter was founded in 2015 and has raised $255 million to date, per Crunchbase data.

4. Glean, $150M, AI work assistant: Enterprise AI startup Glean announced that it has raised $150 million in a Series F round led by Wellington Management at a $7.2 billion valuation. The latest fundraise took place just nine months after Palo Alto, California-based Glean announced a $260 million Series E that doubled the company’s valuation to $4.6 billion.

5. Gecko Robotics, $125M, robotics: Pittsburgh-based Gecko Robotics, an AI and robotics startup developing a platform for building and operating infrastructure for defense, energy and manufacturing sectors, announced that it raised a Series D round at $1.25 billion valuation. The round reportedly totaled $125 million, with Cox Enterprises as lead investor.

6. (tied) Fervo Energy, $100M, geothermal energy: Houston-based Fervo Energy, a developer of geothermal energy projects, announced that it raised $100 million in equity financing from Breakthrough Energy Ventures’ Breakthrough Energy Catalyst platform. The company also picked up $106 million in debt financing from Mercuria and X-Caliber Rural Capital for a major geothermal project in Utah.

6. (tied) Laurel, $100M, timesheet management: Laurel, provider of an AI-enabled platform for tracking time spent by knowledge workers, raised $100 million in a Series C led by IVP. Founded in 2016, San Francisco-based Laurel has raised $156 million to date, per Crunchbase data.

8. Linear, $82M, software development tools: San Francisco-based Linear, a provider of project planning tools for software development, announced that it raised $82 million in Series C financing led by Accel. The financing sets a $1.25 billion valuation for the 6-year-old company.

9. (tied) Mosanna Therapeutics, $80M, sleep apnea treatment: Mosanna Therapeutics, a startup based in Silicon Valley and Basel, Switzerland that is developing a nasal spray for obstructive sleep apnea, raised $80 million in initial funding led by Pivotal bioVenture Partners and EQT Life Sciences.

9. (tied) Coco Robotics, $80M, delivery robots: Santa Monica, California-based Coco Robotics, a startup operating a fleet of small, self-driving delivery vehicles, raised $80 million in a funding round that includes SNR.vc, Sam Altman, Pelion Venture Partners and Outlander VC. Coco said it plans to deploy 10,000 autonomous delivery vehicles by the end of 2026.

9. (tied) Canary Technologies, $80M, hospitality software: San Francisco-based Canary Technologies, a provider of hotel guest management software, raised $80 million in a Series D round led by Brighton Park Capital. The financing brings funding to date for the 8-year-old company to $177 million, per Crunchbase data.

FT : Has multi-club ownership hit its limits?

Has multi-club ownership hit its limits?

Crystal Palace: victims of their own success © PA Wire/PA Images
Long before a ball was kicked, the Club World Cup set an important precedent with big implications for investors.

Fifa’s decision to eject Mexican side Club Leon from the tournament due to its common ownership with Pachuca has set a hard line on what is permissible under multiclub ownership. That the case then went to the Court of Arbitration in Sport further underlined a new reality in which governing bodies can no longer turn a blind eye.

Crystal Palace may be the first victim of the new approach. The south London club won its first major trophy less than a month ago, but the celebrations have been crudely interrupted. Its place in next season’s Europa League is in peril — due solely to the make-up of its ownership group.

Palace have four owners — longtime chair Steve Parish, Apollo co-founder Josh Harris, Blackstone executive David Blitzer, and tech entrepreneur John Textor. None of them has a controlling stake, all four have equal voting rights.

Textor’s Eagle Football, which owns Olympique Lyonnais, RWD Molenbeek and Botafogo, has the biggest slice at around 45 per cent. And that is where the problem lies. Palace qualified for the Europa League by winning the domestic cup, but Lyon also made it after finishing sixth in Ligue 1 (a feat managed in injury time on the last day of the season).

Uefa has raised concerns about Lyon and Palace both competing in the same competition, due to Textor shareholdings in both. There is precedent, such as Red Bull Leipzig and RB Salzburg being allowed into the same competition, and Manchester United and OGC Nice, both backed by Ineos.

Other clubs with shared owners have been able to use blind trusts as a work around. But even if Textor had the foresight (Palace had never qualified for Europe before) ahead of the March 1 deadline to move his shares into a trust, that could have complicated efforts to sell them — as has been his aim for more than a year. Indeed, the money expected from the stake sale is key to his plans to fix Lyon’s battered balance sheet.

Palace now have a couple of weeks to find a solution. Textor has been trying to accelerate a sale of his stake, possibly to Woody Johnson, the former US ambassador to the UK and owner of the New York Jets in the NFL. But a sale to anyone other than Harris and Blitzer may not solve the problem, as any new owner would need to pass the Premier League’s owners and directors test.

The Palace situation has some pretty unique elements, yet it nonetheless poses real questions about the future of multiclub ownership. In theory, the multiclub approach is meant to improve the performance of every team in the network. But if widespread success then puts owners in a situation where they have to relinquish control, what’s the point? And while Uefa’s concern has always been about protecting the integrity of its pan-European competitions, what about the impact on domestic football when owners find themselves having to pick favourites?

The recent trend of investors owning more than one club may not go into reverse, or even slow down. But the questions around whether it does more harm than good are going to keep getting louder.