FT : Fifa’s moment of truth

Fifa’s moment of truth

Will Infantino’s new competition deliver?

Players are unhappy at being asked to play yet more matches while domestic leagues complain that an already overcrowded calendar is at breaking point. A report from Deloitte this week warned that football’s “insatiable appetite for growth” risks having a negative effect on club finances through higher wage demands, while another from Fifpro called for a guaranteed 4-week off-season break and mandatory time off during the season. Yet Fifa and Uefa are pulling in the other direction.

Commercially, the CWC has been an uphill battle. A lack of appetite among traditional broadcasters and big streamers led to a global rights deal with DAZN, now backed by the Saudi state. In the UK, half the games will also be shown on Channel 5, after the BBC and ITV decided it wasn’t worth interrupting their existing summer plans.

Sponsors have been reluctant too. That Fifa announced a new commercial partner just two days before the tournament starts (Airbnb will be the official alternative accommodation and experiences booking platform) points to a late scramble. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund joined the ranks of sponsors just a week earlier.

Ticket prices have reportedly been slashed to drum up demand on the ground, while the threat posed by the hardline stance on immigration in the US may cool appetite for travelling fans. According to The Athletic, US Customs and Border Protection took down a social media post this week that had highlighted the presence of its agents outside each of the host venues.

Despite all the gripes, the Club World Cup is still shaping up to be something of a game-changer. In getting this far, Fifa has firmly established itself as an important player in club football. The size of the prize pot — the winner will take home up to $125mn — makes it as lucrative as winning the Champions League. For clubs such as Real Madrid and Manchester City, who faltered in the competition this year, this offers something of a do-over, and helps explain why there has been a flurry of transfer activity in the last couple of weeks as top clubs look to maximise their chances.

But there’s one question that will only be answered in the coming weeks: is the actual football going to be any good? Data consultancy Twenty First Group is not optimistic, pointing out that the Club World Cup will feature 50 of the world’s top 100 players, compared to 72 at the World Cup in Qatar. The group stage games, on paper at least, look pretty lopsided, while a European team has a 95 per cent chance of winning the whole thing. Meanwhile three of the most popular teams in the world failed to qualify, potentially cutting off an important source of fan attention.

Whether Fifa’s land grab has paid off won’t be clear for a month, and possibly not for a few years when they presumably look to do it all again.

In the coming month, there’s a real prospect that elite teams will end up playing in empty stadiums. Glory could well be measured solely in US dollars.

WWD : Top Beverage Brands Are Racing to Partner With Formula 1

Top Beverage Brands Are Racing to Partner With Formula 1
Formula 1, the sport's 10 teams and its drivers have all partnered with a slew of alcohol and nonalcoholic brands on multiyear deals for the 2025 season and beyond.
Since the start of Formula 1 in 1950, celebratory toasts have been deeply intertwined with the culture of racing. Scenes of Ayrton Senna, Michael Schumacher, Nigel Mansell and Alain Prost celebrating their historic wins have now become some of the most recognizable iconography associated with the sport.

From victorious Champagne sprays to the legendary post-race parties held across the racing calendar, beverage brands and their associated triumphs on and off the podium have remained in the spotlight.

And who could forget recently retired Daniel Ricciardo’s popularization of the “shoey” — drinking Champagne out of a shoe (as seen for the first time at the 2016 German Grand Prix).

As Formula 1 has gone full throttle and become a large part of the global cultural zeitgeist — especially in the U.S. — a wide spectrum of beverage brands have become the top partners in the sport. Spirits to nonalcoholic brands alike have become official partners with Formula 1 itself, the individual races and the 10 teams while also tapping its drivers for brand ambassadorships.
Here, a roundup of the major beverage brands that are tapping into Formula 1.
This list will be continuously updated.

>>> 24h Le Mans : Departure 4pm Paris time : https://www.24h-lemans.com/en

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The Information : A Marc Benioff Protégé Has Morphed Into Salesforce’s Big Worry

A Marc Benioff Protégé Has Morphed Into Salesforce’s Big Worry
After a shock exit as Salesforce co-CEO, Bret Taylor has positioned his AI startup to seize a sizable piece of Marc Benioff’s business.

The Takeaway
• Bret Taylor, Salesforce’s former co-CEO, has sparked one of tech’s most talked-about rivalries with his former boss Marc Benioff.
• Taylor has targeted Salesforce customers to grow his new startup, Sierra.
• Salesforce has responded by sending teams of sales engineers to dissuade them from using Sierra and talk up its rival product, Agentforce.

After an unexpected exit as Salesforce co-CEO in 2022, Bret Taylor sat down with a friend, Benchmark’s Peter Fenton, to brainstorm ideas for what to do next. He knew if he chose to go up against ex-boss Marc Benioff, who had shared the CEO duties with him, Benioff would be a formidable opponent. “He had an immense admiration for Marc,” Fenton recalled. “And that was conveyed to me.”

Still, Taylor has ignited what has turned into one of the most intense and personal rivalries in Silicon Valley with Benioff.

In February 2024, Taylor launched his new startup, Sierra, igniting what has quickly become of the. Sierra makes automated AI software, or agents, for managing client relationships—exactly what much of Salesforce’s software is used for. Sierra has actively courted many of Salesforce’s customers and has signed deals with some of them, including SiriusXM and Sonos, according to a consultant who works with Salesforce customers. (Neither Benioff nor Taylor would comment for this story.)

Salesforce has responded by sending teams of sales engineers to dissuade them from using Sierra and explain why its agent-building service, Agentforce, is better for their needs, said two Salesforce consulting partners. It has also taken other steps to prevent competition from AI companies, like blocking rivals from accessing data in Slack.

In recent months, Benioff has also been calling senior executives at customers to ask why they aren’t moving faster to deploy Agentforce, said a person who has spoken with those executives.

Benioff’s assertive response to Sierra might seem disproportionate given the size of Taylor’s startup. Publicly traded Salesforce commands a market capitalization of more than $250 billion. By contrast, Sierra was last valued at $4.5 billion in an October funding round, which included investors such as Greenoaks Capital and Thrive Capital.

Still, Sierra is growing fast and was recently on pace to generate tens of millions of dollars in revenue this year, according to people close to the company. While that’s not a lot of revenue, it does threaten the part of Salesforce’s business that Benioff has refocused the company on: Agentforce and artificial intelligence, which he sees as the area that’s ripest for growth.

And the threat is led by someone who’s intimately familiar with Salesforce and its weaknesses, including its dependence on a seat-based pricing model that some critics say is outdated. Plus, Taylor enjoys a broad perspective on AI from his perch as OpenAI’s chair.

The Taylor-Benioff rivalry may come down to a truism about any David-versus-Goliath contest: For the smaller contestant to have a credible chance at winning, it helps to know exactly how the giant moves—and where it might stumble.

The relationship between Benioff and Taylor goes back years. Taylor, who previously worked at Google and as Facebook’s chief technology officer, took on increasingly senior roles at Salesforce after it bought Quip, which made software for office workers to collaborate on documents and spreadsheets. In late 2021, Benioff made Taylor his co-CEO, though Taylor continued to report to Benioff.

One of Taylor’s major initiatives at Salesforce was the company’s $27.7 billion purchase of Slack, the largest acquisition in Salesforce’s history—a long-running list given Benioff’s fondness for dealmaking. Although Benioff initially gushed about the deal, he later distanced himself from it by telling colleagues Taylor was its architect.

At the time, some senior Salesforce staff were skeptical that Slack was worth the hefty price tag, given that many of its customers were already using rival software from Microsoft. Despite saying privately that he expected to eventually become Salesforce’s solo CEO, Taylor suddenly left in late 2022, saying that he wanted to start a new company.

Taylor had been closely watching the ripple effect ChatGPT was having on the tech industry, and he knew that he wanted to launch a company based on new AI like OpenAI’s GPT models, recalled Fenton, the venture capitalist. Around that time, Fenton said, he visited Taylor at his home in Lafayette, Calif., when he was still considering a range of directions, from consumer products to business applications.

“That was in a time when he had not decided exactly where to take the technology, but you got the sense that he would land somewhere that would be unbounded,” Fenton said. “I saw his deep curiosity—he’d been reading the white papers, he’d been playing around with the code in Python.”

In the following weeks, Benchmark led a $25 million funding round in Taylor’s new company, which he started with Clay Bavor, a longtime Google executive.

Over the next 12 months, Sierra assembled a small team of engineers and salespeople to develop an early version of its product and begin marketing it to businesses, including consumer-focused companies like WeightWatchers and SiriusXM. Taylor also became enmeshed in the drama surrounding OpenAI’s leadership, joining as the company’s chair in November 2023 after the ouster and subsequent rehiring of CEO Sam Altman. Taylor and a handful of others replaced earlier directors who had clashed with Altman over whether he had been truthful with OpenAI’s board.

Then in early 2024, Taylor publicly unveiled Sierra. He was betting that its agent-powered chat software could better solve customers’ issues while lowering companies’ costs. That mission placed Sierra in direct competition with Salesforce software.

In February 2024, Taylor also announced a funding round of $110 million at a valuation of more than $1 billion from Benchmark and Sequoia Capital, two marquee venture capital firms. The price they paid for Sierra made it one of the most expensively valued startups in tech, relative to how little revenue it had generated to that point.

Seven months later, Benioff announced Salesforce’s contender in the AI agent field: Agentforce. In a splashy presentation at Dreamforce in September 2024, the company’s annual conference for customers and developers held each fall, Benioff announced his intention to reorient the software company around agents that can carry out tasks for workers, including handling support queries. It represented an AI-or-bust bet on the part of Benioff, who has since admitted to considering renaming his company after the new AI software.

By the end of 2024, Microsoft had announced its own agent product, as did more specialized customer support software vendors like Intercom, Zendesk and Decagon.

Sierra seemed to have particular success winning over business from Salesforce customers, many of whom Taylor already knew from his time there. “Bret’s using his Rolodex to get in there,” said Cameron Deatsch, former chief revenue officer at Atlassian and a board director at Intercom, a customer support software startup that competes with Sierra.

In a presentation to a potential customer in late 2024, Sierra said that many of its customers were also Salesforce customers, and that it had specifically designed its product so they could use it in conjunction with the CRM database they buy from Salesforce. For example, Sierra’s AI can respond to a request to return a product by using information stored in a customer’s Salesforce CRM. (Sierra is one of thousands of software providers that sell products that tap into Salesforce data.)

Sierra’s workforce also came to resemble Salesforce’s. As Sierra has grown, Taylor has hired more than 40 former Salesforce employees, who now make up a fifth of Sierra’s roughly 200 total employees. At least 11 of those came directly to Sierra from Salesforce, including Tableau’s former senior vice president of marketing and Salesforce’s senior vice president for self-service and growth.

Some enterprise buyers have come to see Sierra more favorably than Agentforce, which executives have said is far more difficult to set up, according to a person who has spoken with executives who have tested both products at their companies. Still, Salesforce has been giving customers aggressive discounts on the Agentforce software, including bundling it with other offerings like its data management product, this person said. The bundling makes it hard to determine how much revenue the company is bringing in from other products, this person added.

Meanwhile, Sierra still faces its own issues, including how accurate its chatbot is. For instance, when The Information used a Sierra-powered virtual agent on shoe seller OluKai’s website, the agent incorrectly said that the company’s Lae‘ahi Lauhala shoes were out of stock when the product page showed they were available in many different colors and sizes. OluKai was one of the first Sierra customers the company disclosed publicly.

Olukai did not respond to a request to comment. But the company appears to be generally satisfied with the performance of Sierra’s software, which as of February 2024 was enabling it to resolve 70% of its customer inquiries using the virtual agent, according to a case study on Sierra’s website. (Other companies that sell virtual agent software, including Salesforce, have had similar issues with accuracy.)

To win customers over, Sierra has said it will assign engineers to monitor its performance on a weekly basis based on metrics like what portion of customer inquiries it can resolve automatically, according to a person who has heard its sales pitch. But Sierra has also designed its product so non-technical users can use it without assistance from the startup’s engineers, a person close to the company said.

As Sierra courts large businesses, it has offered to customize its product extensively to work with their other software systems, a process that could take months, this person said. That customization could appeal to enterprises that need the AI to work across many different software systems, but it could also come with risks if technology advances quickly, according to Intercom’s Deatsch. If the product becomes obsolete or outdated in the interim, those investments in custom software might look wasteful in hindsight.

Some rival executives privately grumble that Sierra is pinning its hopes on its well-connected CEO instead of on developing cutting-edge technology. The company uses a variety of models, including software from Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta Platforms, to generate responses for customers, a Sierra spokesperson said. Sierra’s system determines which model produces the best answer for each query and uses the response from that one.

One risk to both Salesforce and Sierra is that model providers like Anthropic and OpenAI could come up with their own customer support applications even if Salesforce and Sierra might have a better understanding of what customers want from such technology.

Other software industry executives speculate that Sierra will inevitably end up in the hands of a bigger tech company—possibly even Salesforce itself. That would help justify Sierra’s sky-high valuation for a company with relatively little revenue, said Muddu Sudhakar, a longtime enterprise software executive who co-founded Aisera, a startup that automates IT help desks.

Another possible acquirer could be OpenAI, where, of course, Taylor sits on the board. OpenAI recently hired another senior tech leader, Instacart CEO Fidji Simo, to run its applications business, and the addition of Taylor could help the company gain more market share among corporate customers, many of whom use software from rival Anthropic, Sudhakar said.

While Sierra’s future isn’t entirely clear, one thing is not: Benioff will be coming for Taylor with full force—a reality Benchmark’s Fenton, who knows both men, acknowledged with his usual amount of understatement.

“Part of Marc—of any CEO—is that they have a strong competitive drive,” he said.

WWD : Vietnam’s Ready For High Stakes US Trade Talks To Avoid Steep Tariffs

Vietnam’s Ready For High Stakes US Trade Talks To Avoid Steep Tariffs
Vietnam, a substantial producer of athletic performance shoes, is hoping to avoid the 46 percent reciprocal tariffs when 90-day pause ends on July 9.

Just ahead of the high-takes reciprocal trade talks with the U.S., Vietnam‘s Trade Minister Nguyen Hong Dien said the country is ready to open its market and give more incentives for U.S. exports.

In April, U.S. President Donald Trump disclosed global reciprocal tariffs that raised Vietnam’s new total duty rate to 46 percent. Since then, there has been a temporary 10 percent increase during a 90-day pause for imports from Vietnam until July 9. The U.S. and Vietnam have been in intensive trade talks to strike a new trade agreement that would cap any new duties to a number lower than the planned 46 percent tariff should Trump reinstitute the original reciprocal rate.

The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, along with more than 80 leading U.S. footwear firms, at the end of April sent a letter to Trump urging him to exempt footwear from the reciprocal tariff plan. Trade talks are set to resume this month.

Vietnam remains a key manufacturing hub for athletic performance footwear. When Vietnam concluded a second round of tariff talks with the U.S. in Washington last month on the Bilateral Agreement on Reciprocal Trade between Vietnam and the U.S., a May 22 statement from Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade said the talks between the two negotiating delegations — led by Vietnam Minister Nguyen Hong Dien and U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer — ”made positive progress.”

In preparation for the next round of talks this month, Dien met with Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) on Tuesday in Washington, D.C. A statement on Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade said on Tuesday that the Asian country is “ready to open its market, provide more incentives for U.S. exports” and has requested the U.S. to take “corresponding steps.”

A Bloomberg story said that while Vietnam has taken steps to crackdown on trade fraud, a U.S. concern, one outstanding issue is the Trump administration’s desire to lower Vietnam’s Chinese imports. While Dien’s in town, he’s been meeting with fashion and retail executives from Nike Inc., Walmart Inc. and others as he gets ready for the upcoming talks.

Footwear executives are keeping close tabs on those talks. In last month’s first quarter earnings conference call, Crocs Inc. CEO Andrew Rees said the “daily uncertainty as to the level of these tariffs makes it incredibly hard to plan and predict both short- and long-term impacts to our business.”

He said sourcing for the U.S. market in 2025 includes 47 percent from Vietnam, 17 percent from Indonesia, 13 percent each for China and India, and 5 percent each for Mexico and Cambodia.

During the call, he spoke about the looming uncertainty of Vietnam, noting that the “whole industry is worried about if a reciprocal tariff remains in place [is] Vietnam. That’s a huge amount of production for us and everybody else. That would be incredibly hard to mitigate.”

Adidas CEO Bjørn Gulden said during the company’s April 29 conference call on first-quarter earnings that the expectation is that “people will start to raise prices should these duties or all the duties be confirmed.”

Nike has already implemented some price adjustments, raising retail prices in its U.S. that average between $2 and $10, but it did keep intact the current price range for goods under $100. And the Air Force 1 sneaker, a popular work shoe for service providers that’s priced at $115, will not see any price increase.

Other footwear prices, such as sneakers between $100 and $150, will see increases up to $5, while those starting at $150 and higher, could see increases up to $10. The sports and apparel giant elected not to raise any prices on kids’ products, whether footwear or apparel, and it also has determined that there won’t be any increases for any Jordan product.

WWD : Louis Vuitton Is the New Official Partner of Real Madrid

Louis Vuitton Is the New Official Partner of Real Madrid
The French luxury house will design off-field outfits for the men’s and women’s soccer teams, as well as the men’s basketball team.


PARIS — Jude Bellingham’s work wardrobe is about to sync with his off-duty looks.

Louis Vuitton has unveiled an official multiyear partnership with the Real Madrid soccer and basketball teams, marking yet another high-profile sports deal for the world’s biggest luxury brand, which is active in disciplines ranging from sailing to Formula 1.

The French fashion house last year signed Bellingham, who plays midfield for Real Madrid, as a brand ambassador, and has dressed him for prestigious events such as the Ballon d’Or ceremony.

Now he and his teammates, including Kylian Mbappé, Thibaut Courtois and Vinícius Júnior, will wear a wardrobe designed by Pharrell Williams, creative director of menswear at Vuitton, for major travel and events.

“Because ultimately, football is the number-one sport worldwide, and Real Madrid is a legendary team, on top of that. Louis Vuitton has just as much aura, being the global leader. I think it’s a perfect marriage and an authentic one,” he added.

The announcement, on the eve of the FIFA Club World Cup in the U.S., confirmed speculation swirling in sports circles since February that Vuitton was poised to succeed Zegna as the team’s official off-field outfitter. The club’s jerseys are designed by Adidas.

“At Real Madrid, we relentlessly pursue excellence as the path to remain at the top. That same philosophy defines a brand as iconic in the luxury industry as Louis Vuitton,” Emilio Butragueño, Real Madrid’s director of institutional relations, said in a statement.

“Both of us have managed to transcend time, and we share not only the responsibility of building a legacy, but also the purpose of inspiring the world — beyond our respective industries,” he added.

Beccari, a former professional soccer player, noted that the brand has partnered with FIFA, the sport’s international governing body, since 2010 to create the trunk for the World Cup winner’s trophy. “Today, this partnership with a football club marks a new era and predicts a very positive future,” he said in an emailed interview.

The house has also created carriers for the Rugby World Cup, the NBA Championship trophy, the Formula 1 Grand Prix de Monaco prize and the sailing America’s Cup, among others, and reached a pinnacle of global visibility last year by crafting special trunks for the medals and torches for the 2024 Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games.

“This partnership is a natural fit for Louis Vuitton and our continued focus on sports. As we like to say, ‘Victory travels in Louis Vuitton,’” Beccari said.

Bouncing Back From Defeat
Fresh off the signing of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dean Huijsen, Real Madrid and its new coach Xabi Alonso have a lot riding on the Club World Cup, after a season that saw it beaten by historic rival Barcelona at home, and bow to Arsenal in the Champions League.

Real Madrid leads a pack of favorites in the competition that also includes Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester City, Bayern Munich and Chelsea. Beccari lauded the resilience of the club and its supporters.

“Sports people embody the ultimate journey: a pursuit of excellence. Overcoming failure is part of the process, just as there are challenging times in business. What matters is the team spirit, and the values represented by the club and its federation. Real Madrid remains a legendary club, the most decorated in the world of football,” he said.

“And I think the mentality of Real Madrid is exceptional. They are able to celebrate for 24 hours and then move on to the next chapter or be sad for 24 hours because they didn’t win a trophy, then forget about it and focus on what’s next,” Beccari added, noting that he tries to apply the same spirit at Vuitton, which is navigating a global slowdown in luxury demand.

The label’s positioning as a “cultural” brand with broad reach across segments including sports, gaming, music and art, is all about diversifying revenue streams as consumers switch their focus from status-conferring luxury goods to once-in-a-lifetime experiences.

“We see fashion, culture, entertainment and sports merging like never before, and as a house of culture, we want to be at the forefront, celebrating those who excel. Our house ambassadors inspire us as the competitions we are supporting do,” Beccari said.

Soccer holds a special place for the Arnault family, which controls LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the conglomerate that owns Vuitton alongside brands including Dior, Tiffany & Co., Moët & Chandon and Sephora. Its holding group Agache last year acquired a majority stake in Paris FC, which in May vaulted back into France’s first division after almost half a century in the second tier.

Beccari would not be drawn on the possible implications for Vuitton’s link with soccer, but noted: “At Louis Vuitton, we have a genuine passion for sports and are always looking for new opportunities that resonate with the values of Louis Vuitton.”

While the terms of its deal with Real Madrid were not disclosed, Vuitton noted it was the first time it was placing its tailoring expertise at the service of athletes beyond the pitch.

The formal wardrobe for the men’s and women’s football teams, as well as the men’s basketball team, includes ready-to-wear, shoes and accessories that will be worn during official representations.

Soccer Players as “Cultural Icons”
A label made of natural cowhide leather, embossed with the Louis Vuitton signature, is sewn onto jacket lapels and the back pockets of trousers. Accessories include a leather belt with a palladium LV buckle, a navy cotton embroidered cap and LV Soft sneakers.

Players will also have a choice of luggage pieces including the Horizon 55 carry-on suitcase, the classic Keepall weekender bag, and the Christopher backpack, as well as travel accessories such as a toiletry bag and passport holder.

The items come in the brand’s signature Monogram canvas decorated with stripes and the initials “RM.” Each one also features an exclusive leather charm adorned with the club’s colors.

While items from the collection won’t be available for purchase, clients can buy pieces like the Keepall and Horizon in store and personalize them via the Mon Monogram service, potentially adding the club’s colors or initials. “It is a good way to experience a touch of that collaboration,” Beccari said.

Ahead of the 2018 World Cup in Russia, Vuitton had launched a licensed collection of upscale leather goods in the flag colors of the participating nations. And in 2020, it dropped its first menswear capsule collection designed by Virgil Abloh as part of a three-year partnership with the National Basketball Association.

These days, soccer fans are as likely to take their cues from individual players as their favorite club. In France, stars like Jules Koundé have turned their arrival at the training ground for the national team into style statements, akin to NBA tunnel arrivals.

“We see Louis Vuitton as a universal brand, not just a fashion house. So, these athletes aren’t just playing a game; they’re shaping culture and influencing tastes on a global scale,” Beccari noted.

“These players are today’s cultural icons, and their style choices resonate with the ones of the Louis Vuitton community. And during the shoot and the fittings in Madrid, all the players wanted to participate and take part in the shoot as they deeply wanted to be associated with Louis Vuitton,” he added.

If in Formula 1 the brand has a strong trackside presence as title sponsor of key races, including the Australian Grand Prix, don’t expected to see its logo writ large inside the renovated Santiago Bernabéu stadium in Madrid.

“Instead, we’ll be there to support the players, team representatives and members during international trips, official events, ceremonies and occasions when they will be representing the club. We’re focused on being a part of their journey and their representation of Real Madrid on a global scale,” Beccari said.

WSJ : rade With China Is Becoming a One-Way Street

rade With China Is Becoming a One-Way Street
Trump is trying to further open up China’s market to U.S. companies as Beijing’s appetite for the rest of the world’s exports is diminishing

SINGAPORE—After the U.S. and China reached an agreement this past week to end the latest skirmish in their trade war, President Trump wrote on social media that he and Xi Jinping will “work closely together to open up China to American Trade.”

“This would be a great WIN for both countries!!!” he added.

The reality is that China is becoming less and less interested in other countries’ goods. Its imports are stagnant even as its exports soar, a result of sluggish consumption and Beijing’s all-out push to beef up domestic industries.

Chinese leader Xi’s effort to strengthen China’s fortresslike economy will make it harder for the U.S. and China to agree to a long-term trade deal that resolves ongoing tensions—especially one built around more Chinese purchases of American goods.

It is also fueling tensions with other countries that fear trade with Asia’s rising superpower is becoming one-directional.

“China’s vision of trade is exporting without importing,” said Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former Treasury Department official. China isn’t a realistic alternative to the U.S. as a market for global goods, he said.


Whether for cars, chemicals or commodities, Chinese demand for many of the exports other countries produce is flat or falling, even as its economy reports modest growth of around 5% a year.

In volume terms, which adjust for the effect of exchange rates, Chinese imports through March haven’t grown at all since the end of 2022—while exports have rocketed 33% higher, according to data from the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis, a Dutch research institute.

Such a lopsided relationship is largely the result of Xi’s policies, which have funneled investment toward factories while doing little to pep up sluggish consumer spending. The end of a real-estate boom, meanwhile, has reined in China’s ravenous demand for commodities.

Western brands from Swatch to Porsche to the luxury giant LVMH have reported weak sales in China as consumers keep a tight leash on spending.

Xi’s longer-term ambition is to ensure that China is self-sufficient in key technologies while dominating their supply abroad. He is moving close to that goal in fields including electric vehicles, batteries, construction machinery and medical devices.

Chinese companies say they are replacing overseas suppliers with China-based ones to “localize” their supply chains and push out imports—a trend given extra impetus by the trade conflict with the U.S. State-owned companies in some sectors have been ordered to replace foreign software in their IT systems by 2027, an initiative some refer to as “Delete A,” referring to Delete America.

China Harzone Industry, which makes emergency vehicles and equipment for civil and military use, said in an April 8 notice to investors about the impact of U.S. tariffs that it would “vigorously promote domestic substitution” for imported components.

Companies in the U.S., Europe and Japan say they are also seeing Chinese demand for their products wither as they battle intensifying competition from deep-pocketed Chinese rivals, many of whom are cutting prices aggressively in China in a battle for market share.

As recently as 2015, China imported some $70 million a year of railroad trucks, the wheel assemblies under railcars. In 2023, that had sunk to $1.4 million, according to Rhodium Group, a New York-based research group.

The German medical technology company Drägerwerk said sales of its ventilators and other medical products in China fell by half in 2024 compared with 2023, hurt by what it said were “buy local” policies by Chinese hospitals. The European Union recently pushed ahead with plans to impose curbs on imports of Chinese medical devices following an investigation of China’s healthcare procurement policies that it concluded discriminated against foreign companies.

“The general conditions for foreign companies in China are difficult,” said a Drägerwerk spokeswoman. The Chinese economy is struggling, she said, and competition is increasing because Chinese competitors are given preference in public tenders. The company intends to boost its own production in China in response.

Despite those trends, Xi has been seeking to cast China as the upholder of globalization now that Trump’s decision to jack up tariffs on U.S. trading partners has raised doubts about its future. Washington and Beijing agreed this past week to renew what had been a fraying trade truce to pave the way for further talks.

In a speech in March to Western executives, Xi said China is committed to “an open world economy,” and the defense of the current trading system based on the rules of the World Trade Organization, while deploring what he said was U.S. “bullying” and protectionism.

China’s sagging imports could complicate any further deal between Trump and Xi, especially if it revolves around buying more U.S. goods.

China in 2020 agreed to expand purchases of U.S. goods and services to around $500 billion over two years, but reaching such targets has proven difficult. An analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that China by the end of the two-year period had only imported around $300 billion, though that shortfall was partly explained by the disruption of the pandemic.

Typically, when countries export more and grow richer, they suck in more imports as consumer incomes rise and expanding export industries gobble up more parts and raw materials.

China was like that for years. The sharp slowdown in import growth more recently contrasts with trends in other developing Asian economies, where through March import volumes since 2022 have grown by around 11%. U.S. import volumes over the same period have risen around 36%, driven in part by a recent surge as consumers and companies raced to bring in products from overseas before tariffs came into effect.

China is still a major importer, pulling in some $2.6 trillion in 2024, compared with the U.S.’s $3.4 trillion. Its biggest import—and in Xi’s eyes, a source of vulnerability for China—was semiconductors, including those sold by such U.S. companies as Qualcomm. China also imports a lot of energy and food, benefiting U.S. companies such as the commodities giant Cargill and the gas exporter Cheniere Energy.

Even so, with booming exports, China’s trade in goods surplus worldwide last year hit about $1 trillion, nearly double its 2020 level.

China’s sagging import demand is especially painful for countries that once relied on selling cars, machinery and other high-value goods to its rapidly-growing economy.

Since the end of 2022 through May, Chinese imports in dollar terms from the U.S. were down 11%. Imports from Japan were down 17%, and German imports were down 18%.

Imports from big emerging economies and commodity producers such as Brazil and South Africa, which supplied the iron ore, copper and energy that China vacuumed up during its breakneck expansion, have also slowed, largely because of the bursting of China’s real-estate bubble.

Since the end of 2022, China has been subject to more than 250 antidumping and antisubsidy measures by countries alarmed by their widening trade gaps. Those include efforts to stem inflows of Chinese steel, aluminum foil, gloves and other products in such countries as Vietnam, Turkey, India and Brazil.

Beijing says it intends to take steps to fire up consumption, which should boost Chinese demand for energy and other imports if spending takes off.

But economists say Xi’s self-sufficiency push and determination to shield China from Western pressure by cutting out imports might limit any upside from those measures for global exporters.

“What China is offering predominantly is the opportunity to purchase Chinese goods,” with very limited opportunities to increase sales in its enormous domestic market, said George Magnus, a research associate at the University of Oxford’s China Center and a former UBS chief economist. “A champion of globalization wouldn’t have those features.”

FT : Many oil tanker owners reluctant to brave Strait of Hormuz, Frontline chief

Many oil tanker owners reluctant to brave Strait of Hormuz, Frontline chief says
Israel’s strike on Iran raises questions about waterway handling quarter of world crude oil supplies

The world’s largest publicly listed oil tanker company is refusing new contracts to sail into the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz following Israel’s attack on Iran, its chief executive has said.

The decision by Lars Barstad of Frontline is an early sign of the widespread disruption to global shipping patterns expected as a result of the outbreak of conflict early on Friday.

The concerns are focused on movements through the Hormuz Strait, the narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman that links the Gulf and the Arabian Sea.

About a quarter of global oil supplies and a third of liquefied natural gas production move through the strait. It is also an important conduit for container ships going to and from the regional hub at Jebel Ali in Dubai.

Barstad said that “extremely few” owners, including Frontline, were accepting charters to enter the region.

“We’re not contracting to go into the Gulf,” Barstad said. “That’s not happening now.”


Other maritime security experts agreed shipowners were reluctant to use the vulnerable waterway.

Barstad added that the company had multiple vessels already in the Gulf that would sail out through Hormuz, with tightened security and in convoys with international naval escorts.

But he said: “Trade is going to become more inefficient and, of course, security has a price.”

Iran could cause significant disruption to shipping sailing through the strait. Tehran could also encourage Yemen’s Houthis, whom it backs, to step up attacks on international shipping using the Red Sea.

In April 2024, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards seized the MSC Aries, a container ship controlled by Israel’s Ofer family, near the Strait of Hormuz and forced the crew to sail it into Iranian waters.

Houthi attacks, starting in late 2023, have forced many large shipping companies to avoid the normal Asia to Europe route via the Suez Canal and instead sail round the Cape of Good Hope.

Insurance brokers on Friday said that rates on cargoes shipped through the Red Sea had jumped 20 per cent.

The sharp rise in the cost of cover against drone and missile strikes, piracy and related perils in the Red Sea reflected an increased threat of attacks on commercial vessels by Houthi rebels, said a broker familiar with the market. Israel earlier this week struck targets in the port city of Hodeidah, in Houthi-controlled Yemen.

Peter Sand, chief analyst at supply chain information company Xeneta, said the growing conflict made it less likely container ships would make a large-scale return to their normal route.

Container shipping companies — which transport mostly manufactured goods — have been particularly reluctant to sail through the Red Sea.

Sand added that there would be “inevitable disruption and port congestion” if shipping lines decided to stop using Jebel Ali as a hub and started using less well-equipped ports outside the Gulf.

Iran might impose a “de facto closure” of the Strait of Hormuz, Sand said.

However, Barstad did not believe that Iran would shut the waterway entirely due to the country’s reliance on oil revenues. “They have no interest in disrupting their own piggy bank,” Barstad said.

Iran might, however, have trouble producing its normal oil volumes following the attack, he added. That might force oil importers dependent on Iran — such as China — to look elsewhere for supplies, to the benefit of mainstream tanker operators such as Frontline.

To avoid international sanctions, Iran’s exports move on a “dark fleet” of ships not compliant with international shipping rules. However, the buyers would need to source crude from compliant sources transported on compliant ships, Barstad said.

Frontline’s shares rose 7.5 per cent in New York on Friday.

FT : Bioethanol plant owner says US-UK trade deal will force closure without gov

Bioethanol plant owner says US-UK trade deal will force closure without government help
ABF Sugar, which owns the Vivergo plant in Saltend, Hull has given ministers two weeks to come up with a rescue package

The owner of the UK’s biggest bioethanol plant has given the government two weeks to come up with a rescue package for the industry after the trade agreement with Donald Trump threatened to swamp the British market with 1.4bn litres of tariff-free ethanol.

The ultimatum by ABF Sugar, which owns the £450mn Vivergo plant in Saltend, Hull, was issued following an emergency meeting this week with the UK business secretary Jonathan Reynolds and transport secretary Heidi Alexander.

The owners said unless the government tabled a package to save the industry within two weeks, they would open consultations about making the plant’s 160 workers redundant. Vivergo supports a further 5,000 jobs in downstream supply chains.

Sir Keir Starmer’s government is under political pressure from Labour MPs in the area to save the plant. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has enjoyed a surge in popularity in the area; Reform won the Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral election last month.

Paul Kenward, chief executive of ABF Sugar, told the Financial Times that investors would no longer support continued losses at the plant, which was already struggling before the US-UK trade pact was announced on May 8.

“Our investors have had enough. We cannot continue to lose £3mn a month to support a government agenda when the government isn’t supporting us,” he said.

“I can’t go to my board and suggest they spend another £50mn unless I have a copper-bottomed guarantee that the regulatory regime will change, and there is short-term funding to get us through to the point those changes take effect,” he said.

Reynolds and his US counterpart Howard Lutnick said this week they expected key parts of the US-UK pact to be implemented “within days”, removing the UK’s current de facto 19 per cent tariff on US ethanol. 

Officials at the UK Department of Business and Trade admitted in calls to industry leaders that they had been blindsided by the decision to offer a 1.4bn litre tariff-free quota to US producers — equivalent to the entire annual demand in the UK. 

Since then, the industry has been in talks with the government over potential support and regulatory changes needed to expand the UK bioethanol market, but so far nothing has been agreed.

Reynolds said on May 14 that the government “acknowledged the significance” of the sector, whose product is used in UK “E10” petrol to reduce emission from cars.

The Vivergo plant, which opened in 2012, has only made a profit for six months since the E10 mandate was introduced in 2021, which the industry blames on the way the UK bioethanol market is regulated.

Producers argue that changes to regulations in 2022 that offered double subsidies to ethanol produced from waste products, not crops, opened the door to a flood of ethanol made as a byproduct of US corn production, which is already subsidised. 

Kenward said that plants in Europe identical to those in the UK — which produce about 750mn litres of ethanol a year — were profitable because they were shielded from US imports.

“The Department for Transport was perpetuating our demise and the Department for Business and Trade is now accelerating it,” said Vivergo managing director Ben Hackett. “They’re pushing us towards the precipice. It’s like the government is decarbonising by deindustrialising,” he said.

Even before the trade pact with Washington was signed, frustration has been growing over the government’s failure to take steps to improve the viability of the UK industry, which also includes a plant owned by Ensus in Wilton on Teesside.

The industry is asking the government to increase the size of the market by moving to the “E15” petrol blend used by many other countries, revising regulations to keep out unfair competition and provide short-term subsidies of up to £75mn a year to tide the industry over until the growth-enhancing measures take effect.

Reynolds told MPs this week that the government recognised the “competitive pressures” that the US deal would bring and that he was working with the transport department to deliver regulatory changes.

Meanwhile pressure continues to build on the government from local MPs and industry groups that rely on byproducts from the plants, including high protein animal feed and carbon dioxide gas used in the drinks and meat packing industries. 

William Bain, the head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, said the US deal had caused “a huge headache” for the domestic industry, adding that clarity on government support to the sector was “urgently needed”.  

Tom Reid, chief executive of the Renewable Transport Fuel Association lobby group, said the growing popularity of hybrid cars meant that demand for petrol was increasing in the UK and bioethanol was a vital part of the transition to fully electric vehicles.

Luke Campbell, the recently elected Reform mayor of the Hull and East Yorkshire Combined Authority, has campaigned locally on the issue, writing an open letter to Starmer warning that his US trade deal is a “bad deal for British industry and jobs”.

Local Labour MP Karl Turner — who held his seat at the July 2024 election ahead of a Reform candidate — led a delegation of workers to London this month to protest outside the Houses of Parliament.

Workers at the plant said they were aware that their jobs were hanging by a thread and urged the government to step in.

“It’s not great when you have your own government throwing you under the bus,” said Paul Snuggs, 60, an operations technician. “It’s not just 160 jobs on the site, it’s four to five thousand in the supply chain.”

Andy Gardner, 53, a systems control engineer, who has worked 12 years on the site, said: “I understand the [US-UK] deal is there to save British jobs — but if they’re sacrificing so many British jobs in the process, you have to ask whether they’ve thought it through.”