Closing Stock Market SummaryThe S&P 500 rallied 2.5% on Thursday, as earnings reactions helped instill confidence in dip-buying efforts. The Nasdaq Composite rose 3.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.9%, and the Russell 2000 rose 1.8%.
After a shaky start in which the major indices, except the S&P 500, turned negative, the market kicked into higher gear in the afternoon. All 11 sectors in the S&P 500 closed higher with gains ranging from 1.1% (utilities) to 4.0% (information technology).
Meta Platforms (FB 205.73, +30.78, +17.6%) had sort of a halo effect on the mega-caps, as shares surged 17.6% following its better-than-feared earnings report. Apple (AAPL 163.64, +7.07, +4.5%) and Amazon.com (AMZN 2891.93, +128.59, +4.7%) posted strong gains in front of their earnings reports after the close.
Qualcomm's (QCOM 148.19, +13.09, +9.7%) results and guidance had a similar effect on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+5.6%), while the 11% gain in PayPal (PYPL 92.09, +9.48, +11.5%) despite its downside guidance was viewed as a justification to buy other beaten-down growth stocks -- but not Teladoc (TDOC 33.51, -22.48, -40.2%), which cratered 40% on disappointing guidance.
McDonald's (MCD 254.19, +7.05, +2.9%) and Merck (MRK 88.58, +4.17, +4.9%) also pleased investors with their earnings reports. Fellow Dow components Caterpillar (CAT 212.44, -1.52, -0.7%) and Amgen (AMGN 238.13, -10.66, -4.3%), however, closed lower despite beating EPS estimates.
Of course, the notion that the market was simply due for a bounce from an oversold condition can't be understated. Encouragingly, too, the stock market did not appear fazed by the disappointing Advance Q1 GDP report that had marks of stagflation.
Briefly, real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter (consensus +1.1%) while the GDP Chain Deflator increased by a larger-than-expected 8.0% (consensus +7.3%).
The Treasury market, however, did react in such a way that maintained expectations for the Fed to prioritize tighter policy to keep inflation pressures in check. The 2-yr yield rose seven basis points to 2.64%, and the 10-yr yield rose five basis points to 2.86%. The U.S. Dollar Index (103.59, +0.64, +0.6%) hit a 20-year high. WTI crude settled above $105 per barrel ($105.31, +3.56, +3.5%).
Reviewing Thursday's economic data:
- Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter (consensus +1.1%) while the GDP Chain Deflator shot up 8.0% ( consensus +7.3%). Real final sales of domestic product, which exclude the change in private inventories, were down 0.6%.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it will exacerbate concerns about the U.S. economy being at risk of slipping into an eventual recession at worst or at least entering a stagflation period that will necessitate tighter monetary policy to get inflation under control.
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 23 decreased by 5,000 to 180,000 (consensus 182,000). Continuing claims for the week ending April 16 decreased by 1,000 to 1.408 million, which is the lowest level since February 7, 1970.
- The key takeaway from this report remains the same: jobless claims are near historically low levels, which is indicative of a tight labor market. The tightness in the labor market, though, will continue to fuel concerns about wage-based inflation pressures that can feed into more persistent, and broader, price inflation.
Looking ahead, investors will receive Personal Income and Spending for March, PCE Prices for March, the Q1 Employment Cost Index, the Chicago PMI for April, and the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for April on Friday.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average -6.7% YTD
- S&P 500 -10.0% YTD
- Russell 2000 -14.6% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite -17.7% YTD
mDAU RecastIn March of 2019, we launched a feature that allowed people to link multiple separate accounts together in order to conveniently switch between accounts.An error was made at that time, such that actions taken via the primary account resulted in all linked accounts being counted as mDAU.This resulted in an overstatement of mDAU from Q1’19 through Q4’21.The table below provides updated values for mDAU from Q4’20 to Q4’21 alongside historical reported values for those same time periods. We are including one decimal place for both the absolute values and growth rates to give more detail around the magnitude of the changes. Note that recast data is not available prior to Q4’20 due to data retention policies, but our estimates suggest the prior period adjustments are not likely to be greater than those in Q4’20.
In the annual reference document released this week, the auditor of Foncière Euris, holding company of the Casino group, warns that the company lacks cash to honor a large derivatives debt before Christmas. What weaken the control of the distribution group.
It is sometimes necessary to bring a magnifying glass to detect the financial setbacks of the CEO of the Casino group, Jean-Charles Naouri. In this case, you have to go to page 12 of Foncière Euris' annual financial report, published on Monday 25 April. As a reminder, the former director of Pierre Bérégovoy took control of Casino thanks to a series of holding companies. Foncière Euris, located under the holding companies Euris and Finatis, owns 57.9% of Rallye, which itself owns 52.3% of Casino.
However, on page 12 of the document, the statutory auditor explains: "The projected cash flow of Foncière Euris, as estimated to date, does not allow the derivative banks to be reimbursed at the maturity date of December 2022 (or June 2023 in some cases)". The news alerted scrupulous investors. Foncière Euris owes its creditors a total of 54 million euros: 50 million euros expiring in December 2022 and 4 million euros in June 2023. Because, unlike conventional loans, contracts in the form of derivatives are not "frozen" by the safeguard procedure for holdings in progress since May 2019. They must therefore be paid for.
The Societe Generale precedent
Societe Generale knows something about it. In 2019, when all of the group's holding companies were placed under safeguard proceedings, the bank had obtained through legal proceedings the benefit of Rallye shares as collateral for derivative contracts concluded in 2014 with the same Foncière Euris. She had thus found herself with 1.77 million Rallye shares, or 3.4% of the capital, which she had undoubtedly hastened to convert into cash.
Even today, if Foncière Euris could not honor its debts, the auditor reminds that the pledges on Rallye shares could result in a considerable loss of control of Casino's parent holding company. "The percentage of Foncière Euris in Rallye would drop from 57.9% to 39.8% in capital and from 71.8% to 55.6% in voting rights", details the document. What mortgage a little more the future of Jean-Charles Naouri at the head of Casino.
Research Calls
- Upgrades:
- Antero Midstream (AM) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $13
- Ares Capital (ARCC) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Hovde Group
- Autohome (ATHM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $30
- Fifth Third (FITB) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $52
- Kinder Morgan (KMI) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $21
- MaxLinear (MXL) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $66
- MSCI (MSCI) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $515
- RPC (RES) upgraded to Accumulate from Hold at Johnson Rice; tgt $13
- Wabtec (WAB) upgraded to Peer Perform from Underperform at Wolfe Research
- Downgrades:
- Coca-Cola (KO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at DZ Bank; tgt $69
- Columbia Financial (CLBK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Compass Point; tgt lowered to $20
- FARO Techs (FARO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Craig Hallum; tgt lowered to $40
- Greenhill (GHL) downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $12
- LG Display (LPL) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
- Moelis (MC) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $50
- Peoples Bancorp (PEBO) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
- Spotify (SPOT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Pivotal Research Group; tgt lowered to $110
- Teladoc (TDOC) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at William Blair
- Teladoc (TDOC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $43
- Teladoc (TDOC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
- Teladoc (TDOC) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $35
- Vroom (VRM) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at William Blair
- Others:
- Allstate (ALL) resumed with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $188
- Archer Aviation (ACHR) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $7
- Arvinas (ARVN) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $104
- AvidXchange (AVDX) initiated with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $9
- Babylon (BBLN) initiated with a Hold at Berenberg; tgt $5.50
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $62
- C4 Therapeutics (CCCC) initiated with an Underperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $10
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $78
- EVgo Inc. (EVGO) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $14
- Freshpet (FRPT) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $135
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $100
- Joby Aviation (JOBY) initiated with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $7
- Kemper (KMPR) initiated with an Underperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $44
- Kinetik (KNTK) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $80
- Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $63
- Lilium GmbH (LILM) initiated with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $5
- Monte Rosa Therapeutics (GLUE) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $19
- Progressive (PGR) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $124
- Sachem Capital (SACH) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer; tgt $6
- Silicon Labs (SLAB) assumed with a Hold at The Benchmark Company
- Vascular Biogenics (VBLT) initiated with a Buy at Chardan Capital Markets; tgt $5
- Xeris Biopharma (XERS) initiated with a Buy at Craig Hallum; tgt $6.50
Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance:
- TDOC -42.5%, ALGN -22.3%, BTU -11.7%, DPZ -7.5%, SWK -7.4%, ORLY -6.5% (also names new CFO), JKS -6.5%, LH -5.2%, AMGN -5.1% (also receives notice of deficiency from IRS), RLGY -5.1%, CAKE -5% (also dividend and buyback reinstated), AMSF -5%, COUR -4.9%, CACI -4.8%, CHD -4.5%, CLB -4.1%, OSTK -3.9%, TW -3.6%, NTGR -3.5%, UIS -3.3%, FARO -3.2%, GGG -3%, MC -2.5%, POR -2.4%, ALSN -2%, KBR -1.8%, SO -1.8%, KIM -1.7%, CAT -1.6%, HAYW -1.5%, HOLX -1.3%, STRA -1.3%, FTI -1.2%, TS -1.2%, EQIX -1.1%, LIN -1.1%, UCTT -1%
Other news:
- IKNA -6.8% (files for $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering)
- FHN -3% (files mixed securities shelf offering)
- ARKK -0.6% (down on TDOC earnings)
Analyst comments:
- GHL -8.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette)



