>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 14th of April 2022

>>> Up
* Chaarat Gold Raised to Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 29 pence
* Husqvarna Raised to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 95 kronor
* Repsol Raised to Buy at Goldman

>>> Down
* Galp Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 15 euros

>>> Initiation
* Adyen Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT 1,810 euros
* Mondo TV Rated New Buy at Integrae SIM; PT 3.10 euros
* Pearson Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 750 pence

>>> Call
* Bunzl Cut at Berenberg as Inflationary Tailwinds Set to Ease

>>> US After Hours Summary: CMBM -13%, RENT -4% move lower on results/guidance

After Hours Summary: CMBM -13%, RENT -4% move lower on results/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: N/A

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ANSS +2.8% (agreed to acquire OnScale), INMB +1% (dosed first patient in Phase 2 trial of XPro1595), AVNW +0.6% (announced intent to acquire Redline Communications)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: CMBM -13.9%, RENT -4.4%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: PTGX -36.9% (received letter from FDA indicating intent to rescind Breakthrough Therapy Designation for rusfertide), OCX -18.1% (announced public offering of stock and warrants), AMRX -2.1% (received FDA approval for BLA for bevacizumab-maly), GPC -1.1% (announced acquisition of Lausan Group)

>>> US Close Dow +1,01% S&P +1,12% Nasdaq +2,03% Russell +1,92%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The S&P 500 rose 1.1% on Wednesday in a relatively broad-based advance led by the growth stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.0%) rose comparably, while the Nasdaq Composite (+2.0%) and Russell 2000 (+1.9%) outperformed with roughly 2% gains. 

Investors assumed a dip-buying mindset, undeterred by a larger than expected 1.4% m/m increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for March (consensus 1.2%) and an earnings miss from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 127.30, -4.24, -3.2%).

The S&P 500 reclaimed its 50-day moving average (4422) on a closing basis amid gains in nine of its 11 sectors. Six sectors advanced at least 1.0%, including a 2.5% gain for the consumer discretionary sector (+2.5%).

Airline stocks were particularly strong after Delta Air Lines (DAL 41.02, +2.40, +6.2%) beat top and bottom-line estimates and Delta's CEO provided upbeat bookings commentary. The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS 21.65, +1.09) rose 5.3%. 

Conversely, the financials (-0.1%) and utilities (-0.2%) sectors closed lower, with the former pressured by JPM's disappointing earnings results and a second-straight decline in Treasury yields. 

The 2-yr yield decreased five basis points to 2.34%, and the 10-yr yield decreased four basis points to 2.69%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.4% to 99.88. 

The decline in rates helped alleviate some of the valuation concerns in the growth stocks, including the mega-caps. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK 225.04, +4.02) rose 1.8%, versus a 1.1% gain for the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP 156.60, +1.75).

Demand for Treasuries was presumably influenced by the peak inflation narrative and cautious-sounding commentary from JPM CEO Jamie Dimon about the economic challenges ahead. The PPI report wasn't that surprising, either, after the hot CPI report yesterday, suggesting the report was already priced in. 

WTI crude futures, meanwhile, flirted with $105 per barrel ($104.25, +3.56, +3.5%) despite bearish inventory data from the EIA and a downwardly revised 2022 global demand growth forecast from the IEA. 

Reviewing Wednesday's economic data:

  • The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.4% month-over-month in March ( consensus 1.2%) following an upwardly revised 0.9% increase (from 0.8%) in February. The index for final demand, less foods and energy, rose 1.0% month-over-month ( consensus 0.5%) following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.2%) in February. On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 11.2% while the index for final demand, less foods and energy, was up 9.2%. The accompanying tables for the report show a lengthy list of double-digit percentage increases on a year-over-year basis for many categories.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it is a signpost of potential profit margin pressures that are going to intensify if consumers start showing more resistance to price increases. Beyond that, it's another reminder that the Fed needs to get aggressive with its policy to get these rampant inflation pressures in check.
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 1.3% following a 6.3% decline in the prior week.
  • Weekly crude oil inventories increased by 9.38 mln barrels after increasing by 2.42 mln barrels during the previous week.

Looking ahead to Thursday, investors will receive Retail Sales for March, weekly Initial and Continuing Claims, the preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for April, Import and Export Prices for March, and Business Inventories for February.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -4.9% YTD
  • S&P 500 -6.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -9.8% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite -12.8% YTD

WSJ : Yellen Warns Nations Staying Neutral in Russia’s War With Ukraine

Yellen Warns Nations Staying Neutral in Russia’s War With Ukraine
The U.S. has cautioned China, India and others not to aid Moscow or undercut sanctions

WASHINGTON—Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said countries that maintain their ties to Russia after its invasion of Ukraine risk facing isolation from the global economy, sending a warning shot to nations that have so far remained neutral in the conflict.

As it has crafted with its allies a wide-ranging package of sanctions on Russia, the U.S. has urged China, a close partner of Russia, to not provide substantive aid to Russia or take steps to undercut the sanctions. It has also sought to push countries that haven’t put penalties on the Russian economy, notably India, to take a tougher stance against Moscow.

In her speech, made a week before finance officials from around the world will descend on Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, Ms. Yellen said indecision about how to respond to the war in Ukraine weakens the international financial system.

“Let me now say a few words to those countries that are currently sitting on the fence, perhaps seeing an opportunity to gain by preserving their relationship with Russia and backfilling the void left by others. Such motivations are shortsighted,” she said at the Atlantic Council. “And let’s be clear, the unified coalition of sanctioning countries will not be indifferent to actions that undermine the sanctions we’ve put in place.”

Ms. Yellen singled out China, saying that it could become more difficult for the U.S. and its allies to separate their economic interests in the country from national security concerns if Beijing supports Russia’s invasion. China has maintained normal trade relations with Russia despite the conflict, and so far major Chinese companies and banks haven’t helped Russia evade sanctions.

“The world’s attitude towards China and its willingness to embrace further economic integration may well be affected by China’s reaction to our call for resolute action on Russia,” she said.

While Ms. Yellen didn’t call out any other countries by name, the Biden administration has stepped up its engagement in recent weeks with India, a key U.S. partner that has maintained a neutral stance amid the war in Ukraine.

During a virtual meeting Monday, President Biden urged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday not to accelerate or increase India’s purchase of Russian oil, according to the White House, and both the U.S. and Russia have recently dispatched officials to India. India has longstanding defense ties to Russia and hasn’t denounced the invasion of Ukraine.

“I think that, to date, there are certainly areas where we have been disappointed by both China and India’s decisions in the context of the invasion in terms of their reaction overall,” Brian Deese, the director of the White House National Economic Council, said last week. “Our message to the Indian government is that the costs and consequences for them of moving into a more explicit strategic alignment with Russia will be significant and long-term.”

The Indian embassy in Washington didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

A group of House lawmakers also recently pushed for the Biden administration to follow a more confrontational approach with Saudi Arabia after it has refused to cooperate with Washington over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ms. Yellen said the war in Ukraine will require an overhaul of international financial agreements and institutions, with an eye toward diversifying supply chains and commodity sources. Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas has presented an obstacle to efforts to weaken the Russian economy while still sparing Western economies from harm.

“We cannot allow countries to use their market position in key raw materials, technologies or products to have the power to disrupt our economy or exercise unwanted geopolitical leverage,” she said. She added that countries should try to arrange new trade agreements that reduce the influence of non-friendly partners in a move she called “friend-shoring” to allied nations.

A central concern at next week’s spring meetings will be food shortages and price increases brought on by the war between Russia and Ukraine, which are major suppliers of wheat and fertilizer. Ms. Yellen said she would convene a meeting on the issue.

The IMF, World Bank and international development banks are all in need of strengthening, Ms. Yellen said, pointing to the divergent ability of poor and rich nations to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic and the need to better marshal private capital to developing economies.

“Some may say that now is not the right time to think big. Indeed, we are in the middle of Russia’s war in Ukraine, alongside the lingering fight against a global pandemic and a long list of other initiatives under way,” Ms. Yellen said. “Yet, I see this as the right time to work to address the gaps in our international financial system that we are witnessing in real time.”

FT : Texts reveal UK traders exulting over negative oil price in 2020

Texts reveal UK traders exulting over negative oil price in 2020
‘Please don’t tell anyone what happened today lads,’ message from court papers said, as WTI hit minus $37

A US judge has allowed a case to proceed against UK traders accused of causing an unprecedented crash in oil futures markets after ruling that text messages between the group were sufficient to point towards a potential conspiracy.

The proposed class-action lawsuit centres around trading on April 20 2020, when the price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil plunged below zero for the first time on record. Self-employed traders linked to Vega Capital London, a little-known commodities brokerage based in the Essex town of Benfleet, stand accused of making more than $700mn by flooding futures markets to drive the price lower.

Mish International Monetary, a California rare coin dealer that says it lost money that day, alleges market manipulation and violations of antitrust laws. Its civil suit accuses the defendants of buying special “trading at settlement” (TAS) contracts, whose price would be fixed by that day’s settlement value, then conspiring to dump huge volumes of ordinary WTI contracts ahead of the expiry.

Court documents released on Tuesday and first reported by Bloomberg show how the group — dubbed the Essex Boys — discussed trading strategies that day over WhatsApp.

“I’m doing a fortune on TAS haha,” one of the traders is quoted as saying.

“We pushed each other so hard for years for this one moment . . . And we f****** blitzed it boys,” said another. A third added: “Please don’t tell anyone what happened today lads.”

US District Judge Gary Feinerman of Chicago gave the go-ahead for the case to progress, ruling that the allegations against eight of the 12 traders accused were plausible based on the communications, as well as on a “high degree of correlative trading”.

The defendants, whose identities are protected by court order, deny the allegations and contend they are independent traders who were following market signals during a period of turmoil. Vega Capital could not be reached for comment.

WTI futures on CME Group’s New York Mercantile Exchange had crashed by $56 a barrel to close at negative $37.63 as a shortage of physical storage space led investors to dump futures contracts rather than take delivery. The price recovered to around $10 the next day, allegedly giving the group its windfall.

In the period immediately before WTI futures expired, the collective was dumping 153.5 contracts a minute and accounting for more than 30 per cent of total global market volume, the Mish lawsuit alleges. It notes an “extremely strong tendency” of between 96.2 per cent and 99.7 per cent for its trades to “move in the same direction at the very same time”.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US regulator, analysed the WTI price plunge on April 20, 2020, but it did not draw conclusions as to the cause.

Feinerman dismissed the case against Vega Capital and its owner, ruling that they were not party to the alleged conspiracy. Mish has until April 28 to challenge the judge’s decisions by amending its complaint.