>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 6th of July 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* BHP Raised to Hold at Liberum
* Brunello Cucinelli Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 83 euros
* Caledonia Mining Raised to Buy at Liberum
* Constellation Brands PT Raised to $282 from $254 at Argus
* Microsoft PT Raised to $415 from $335 at Morgan Stanley
* Mondi Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 1,355 pence
* Simon Property Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $127
* Smiths Raised to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 1,775 pence
* Smurfit Kappa Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 3,100 pence
* Tele2 Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 107 kronor
* u-blox Raised to Buy at Baader Helvea; PT 139 Swiss francs
* United Utilities Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* UPM-Kymmene Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Vicat Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 27 euros

>>> Down
* Alfen PT Cut to 50 euros from 58 euros at Jefferies
* American Express Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $185
* Clariant PT Cut to 14 Swiss francs from 16 Swiss francs at Citi
* Eagle Materials Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $190
* Energy Srl Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 3 euros (+)
* Euronext Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 69 euros
* Geberit Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 419 Swiss francs
* Heidelberg Materials AG Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 81 euros
* Kingspan Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 64 euros
* Martin Marietta Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $470
* Nemetschek Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 60 euros
* Purmo Group Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 7.90 euros
* Vulcan Materials Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $230
* Wentworth Cut to Hold at Panmure Gordon; PT 35 pence

>>> Initiation
* CTP Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 14.50 euros
* Fasadgruppen Group Rated New Buy at SEB Equities; PT 126 kronor
* Idorsia Resumed Sell at Citi; PT 5.50 Swiss francs
* WDP Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT 28 euros

>>> Call
* Clariant PT Cut at Citi, Cites Volume Weakness Hitting Profit (+)
* Idorsia Rated Sell at Citi on Lack on Quviviq Revenue Inflection
* Japan May Intervene If Yen Weakens Past 150 to Dollar, Citi Says
* Nemetschek Downgraded at Barclays on Construction Weakness
* Smiths Valuation Back In Line, Raised to Sector Perform at RBC
* Smurfit Kappa and Mondi Raised at JPMorgan on Bottoming Prices
* UPM Raised as Morgan Stanley Sees Less Packaging Sector Downside

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Wacker Chemie (WCH TH) -1.3%
  • DHL Group (DPW TH) -1.3%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -1.3%
  • Lotus Bakeries (7LB TH) -1.4%
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -1.5%
  • Renault (RNL TH) -1.5%
  • Heidelberg Materials AG (HEI TH) -2.8%
    • Heidelberg Materials AG Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 81 euros
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) -2.9%
    • Nemetschek Downgraded at Barclays on Construction Weakness
  • Gerresheimer (GXI TH) -3.7%
    • Gerresheimer 2Q Adj. Ebitda Misses Estimates, FY View Confirmed
  • Embracer (TH9 TH) -8.8%
    • Embracer Offering of 80m Shares Prices at SEK25/Share

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Fresenius SE (FRE TH) -0.9%
  • Continental (CON TH) -1%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -1.2%
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) -1.3%
  • Heidelberg Materials AG (HEI TH) -3%
    • Heidelberg Materials AG Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 81 euros
MDAX:
  • TAG Immobilien (TEG TH) -0.9%
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -1.1%
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) -2.3%
    • Nemetschek Downgraded at Barclays on Construction Weakness
  • Gerresheimer (GXI TH) -4.2%
    • Gerresheimer 2Q Adj. Ebitda Misses Estimates, FY View Confirmed
SDAX:
  • Suedzucker (SZU TH) +3.5%
    • Suedzucker Boosts FY Operating Profit Forecast, Beats Estimates
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +0.7%
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) -0.9%
  • Salzgitter (SZG TH) -1.3%
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) -1.4%
  • SUSE (SUSE TH) -4.1%
    • SUSE 2Q Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates, FY Outlook Confirmed

>>> What to look at today - 6th of July 2023

Equity benchmarks across Asia fell on Thursday with Hong Kong shares leading the losses in a broad, risk-off move across global markets. The Hang Seng Index tumbled as much as 3.2% while benchmarks in Japan and Australia fell more than 1%. A gauge representing Chinese firms also dropped. US equity futures fell, compounding Wednesday losses for the S&P 500. Chinese investors don’t expect policymakers to unveil aggressive stimulus or big economic reforms at a key meeting expected later this month, accordingu to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Traders have been hoping for more as a slew of data disappointed, including the latest services industry release on Wednesday.  Investors also digested news that Chinese banks have stopped buying bonds issued in the Shanghai free trade zone after heightened regulatory scrutiny, in a development that hurts local government financing vehicles. Treasuries rose two basis points to 3.95%, adding to gains on Wednesday that were spurred by the latest Federal Reserve minutes. The two-year rate inched up to 4.96%.  The action was driven by Fed minutes showing division among policymakers over the decision to pause in the central bank’s June meeting, with the voting members on track to take rates higher this month. Traders are also looking ahead to US jobs data over the next two days that will further illuminate the path for interest rates. A series of US employment reports due Thursday and Friday will be pivotal. The so-called JOLTS report of job openings is expected to show a tapering of available positions and a separate measure of jobless claims is anticipated to tick higher, in a sign of cooling in the labor market. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen touches down in Beijing Thursday to attempt to further repair the relationship between the world’s two largest economies. Elsewhere in China, the central bank extended support for the yuan via a stronger daily reference rate, a day after its flagship newspaper published commentary stating that the country has ample tools to stabilize the weakening currency. Other efforts to shore up the yuan included a decision among China’s largest banks to reduce rates on the country’s $453 billion in corporate US dollar deposits - the second cut in a matter of weeks. In emerging markets, the central bank of Malaysia will hand down interest rate decisions after Sri Lanka cut for the second meeting. Moves in major currencies were relatively muted, aside from the yen strengthening about 0.3% versus the dollar. Traders are likely to keep a keen eye on both the yen and the yuan again, with no end in sight to the broad downward pressure on these currencies. Oil edged higher to compound a rally on Wednesday. Gold rose while Bitcoin traded flat just above $30,000. US After Hours Quiet after hours session; JBLU -1.1% lower as court rules against Northeast Alliance deal with AAL; but SAVE +2.3% higher as JBLU plans to focus more on it.

Nikkei -1.75% Hang Seng -3.08% CSI -0.72% Shanghai -0.58% Shenzen -0.34%

Eur$ 1.0834 CNH 7.2644 CNY 7.2515 JPY 144.03 GBP 1.2695 CHF 0.8990 RUB 90.4905 TRY 26.0546 WTI$71.70 -0.13% Gold 1,918 +0.14% BTC 30,4890 +0.07% ETH 1,913 +0.13%

S&P -0.42% Nasdaq -0.54% EuroStoxx -0.57% FTSE -0.58% Dax -0.59% CAC SMI -0.20%

Macro :
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF May Be Clearing Way for Next Bull Market
- CAC Has Fat Wallet, But Risky Earnings Prospects Limit Buybacks

Keep an eye on :
- ADOC FP : Adocia in Exclusivity Pact With Sanofi; to Repay Debt Early
- AI FP : Air Liquide Plans Home Healthcare Activity Transform, Job Cuts
- AGAS NO : Avance Gas to Sell 2008 built VLGC Iris Glory for $60 million
- ANIM IM : Anima Holding June Net Inflows EU212M
- ATRLJB SS : Atrium Ljungberg 1H Net Loss SEK440M Vs. Profit SEK4.87B Y/y
- BMW GY : BMW AG: BMW of North America Reports Q2 2023 U.S. Sales Results.
- BNR GY : Brenntag to Make Divisions More Autonomous as Part of Strategy
- CO FP : Credit Swaps Panel Asked on Casino CDS Payout for Seventh Time
- EMBRACB SS : Embracer Offering of 80m Shares Prices at SEK25/Share
- EMMN SW : Emmi Sells Glaeserne Molkerei to Mutares, Price Not Disclosed
- GXI GY : Gerresheimer 2Q Adj. Ebitda Misses Estimates, FY View Confirmed
- KTCG AV : Kapsch Sees €243m AutoTicket Compensation in Germany Arbitration
- LNZ AV : Lenzing Completes EU400 Million Capital Increase
- LSG NO : Leroy Prelim 2Q Harvest 29,700 Tons Excluding Scottish Seafarms
- META US : Instagram Unveils Threads App, a Threat to Musk’s Twitter
- NAS NO : Norwegian Air June Passenger Load Factor 85.8% Vs. 84.8% Y/y
- NOKIA FH : Jio Is Set to Sign 5G Equipment Deal With Nokia for $1.7b: ET
- RDC GY : Redcare Pharmacy NV Prelim 2Q Revenue EU421M
- SAN FP : Adocia in Exclusivity Pact With Sanofi; to Repay Debt Early
- SAN FP : Pfizer, Sanofi to Drive $1.3 Billion Sales in Newborn RSV Market
- STLA IM : Stellantis ‘Very Safe’ Until 2027 on Critical Raw Materials: CEO
- SZU GY : Suedzucker Boosts FY Operating Profit Forecast, Beats Estimates
- SUSE GY : SUSE 2Q Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates, FY Outlook Confirmed
- TKA GY : Thyssenkrupp’s Nucera Valued at €2.5 Billion in German Listing
- VINPAI IPO : Vinpai Launches IPO on Euronext Growth in Paris at €6.55/Shr
- VOW GY : Audi to Unveil EV Manufacturing Plans in Mexico This Month: Rtrs
- VOW GY : VW to Start China Deliveries of First Fully-Electric Sedan in 4Q

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 6th of July 2023

>>> Up
* BHP Raised to Hold at Liberum
* Brunello Cucinelli Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 83 euros
* Caledonia Mining Raised to Buy at Liberum
* Constellation Brands PT Raised to $282 from $254 at Argus
* Microsoft PT Raised to $415 from $335 at Morgan Stanley
* Mondi Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 1,355 pence
* Simon Property Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $127
* Smiths Raised to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 1,775 pence
* Smurfit Kappa Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 3,100 pence
* Tele2 Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 107 kronor
* u-blox Raised to Buy at Baader Helvea; PT 139 Swiss francs
* United Utilities Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* UPM-Kymmene Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Vicat Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 27 euros

>>> Down
* Alfen PT Cut to 50 euros from 58 euros at Jefferies
* American Express Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $185
* Clariant PT Cut to 14 Swiss francs from 16 Swiss francs at Citi
* Eagle Materials Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $190
* Euronext Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 69 euros
* Geberit Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 419 Swiss francs
* Heidelberg Materials AG Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 81 euros
* Kingspan Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 64 euros
* Martin Marietta Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $470
* Nemetschek Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 60 euros
* Purmo Group Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 7.90 euros
* Vulcan Materials Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $230
* Wentworth Cut to Hold at Panmure Gordon; PT 35 pence

>>> Initiation
* CTP Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 14.50 euros
* Fasadgruppen Group Rated New Buy at SEB Equities; PT 126 kronor
* Idorsia Resumed Sell at Citi; PT 5.50 Swiss francs
* WDP Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT 28 euros

>>> Call
* Idorsia Rated Sell at Citi on Lack on Quviviq Revenue Inflection
* Japan May Intervene If Yen Weakens Past 150 to Dollar, Citi Says
* Nemetschek Downgraded at Barclays on Construction Weakness
* Smiths Valuation Back In Line, Raised to Sector Perform at RBC
* Smurfit Kappa and Mondi Raised at JPMorgan on Bottoming Prices
* UPM Raised as Morgan Stanley Sees Less Packaging Sector Downside

>>> US After Hours Summary: Quiet after hours session; JBLU -1.1% lower as court

After Hours Summary: Quiet after hours session; JBLU -1.1% lower as court rules against Northeast Alliance deal with AAL; but SAVE +2.3% higher as JBLU plans to focus more on it

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: None

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ASLN +3.9% (to discuss Phase 2b topline data from TREK-AD trial), VSTM +3.6% (announces design for confirmatory trial of Avutometinib and Defactinib), LUNR +2.5% (stock offering by selling shareholder), NKTX +2.4% (names new CFO), SAVE +2.3% (JBLU issues statement on Northeast Alliance with AAL; disagrees with court ruling, but does not plan to appeal; JBLU will now turn even more focus to proposed combination with SAVE), MRUS +1.8% (FDA grants second Breakthrough Therapy Designation for Zenocutuzumab), MGNI +1.7% (chosen by Foxtel Media to enable programmatic advertising on BINGE Basic), SVM +1.1% (reports high-grade silver-lead drill results), BAC +0.3% (increases dividend), SQM +0.2% (new long term supply agreement with LG Energy), RMD +0.1% (acquires Somnoware)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: None

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: XOM -1.2% (details items that will impact Q2 results), SLDP -1.2% (Ford extends the term of Joint Development Agreement with SLDP), JBLU -1.1% (JBLU issues statement on Northeast Alliance with AAL; disagrees with court ruling, but does not plan to appeal; JBLU will now turn even more focus to proposed combination with SAVE), NKLA -0.7% (awarded $41.9 mln grant by California to build refueling stations), AAL -0.4% (JBLU issues statement on Northeast Alliance with AAL; disagrees with court ruling, but does not plan to appeal; JBLU will now turn even more focus to proposed combination with SAVE), F -0.2% (Ford extends the term of Joint Development Agreement with SLDP)

>>> US Close Dow -0,38% S&P -0,20% Nasdaq -0,18% Russell -1,26%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The major indices all registered losses ranging from 0.2% to 1.3%. Several catalysts drove market participants to take some money off the table today amid a lingering sense that the market is due for a pullback following its big run in the first half of the year. 

Those catalysts included geopolitical angst and concerns about global growth following the news that Services PMI readings for June out of China and the eurozone were weaker than expected, that the U.S. is looking to restrict China's access to cloud computing, and that China said foreign entities will have to request permission to export gallium and germanium.

There was also some knee-jerk selling in the wake of the release of the FOMC Minutes for the June 13-14 meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET. The minutes didn't contain anything surprising, though, and the major indices quickly bounced back from the spate of selling interest. Ultimately, the stock and bond markets finished their sessions in close proximity to where they were trading when the minutes were released.

Expectations for future rate hikes were also little changed. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 88.7% probability of a 25-basis points rate hike at the July FOMC meeting (versus 86.8% on July 3) and a 17.7% probability of a second rate hike at the September FOMC meeting (versus 20.8% on July 3).

Relative strength from the mega cap space helped to limit index losses while the Russell 2000 lagged, declining 1.3%. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) rose 0.1% while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) fell 0.4%. 

Most of the S&P 500 sectors registered a loss, but the materials sector (-2.5%) saw the biggest loss by a wide margin. The industrials (-0.6%) and information technology (-0.6%) sectors were also notable underperformers. 

The communication services (+1.2%) and utilities (+1.1%) sectors, meanwhile, rose to the top of the leaderboard. 

Decliners led advancers by a better than 2-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a nearly 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq. 

Treasuries settled with losses across the curve. The 2-yr note yield rose two basis points to 4.94% and the 10-yr note yield rose nine basis points to 3.95%. 

  • Nasdaq Composite: +31.8% YTD
  • S&P 500: +15.8% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +7.3% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +6.3% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +3.4% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

  • Factory orders increased 0.3% month-over-month in May (consensus 0.6%) following a downwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.4%) in April. Excluding transportation, factory orders declined 0.5% month-over-month on the heels of a 0.6% decline in April. Shipments of manufactured goods also increased 0.3% month-over-month after declining 0.6% in April.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that new order activity for manufactured goods remained weak, excluding transportation.

Looking ahead to Thursday, market participants will receive the following economic data:

  • 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 3.0%)
  • 8:15 ET: June ADP Employment Change (consensus 245,000; prior 278,000)
  • 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (consensus 250,000; prior 239,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.742 mln), May Trade Balance ( consensus -$69.0 bln; prior -$74.6 bln)
  • 9:45 ET: June IHS Markit Services PMI - Final (prior 54.9) 
  • 10:00 ET: June ISM Non-Manufacturing Index ( consensus 51.1%; prior 50.3%) and May job openings (prior 10.103 mln)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +76 bcf)
  • 11:00 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -9.60 mln)

WSJ : First Female Athlete Diagnosed With CTE After Repeated Head Impacts

First Female Athlete Diagnosed With CTE After Repeated Head Impacts
Australian researchers say Heather Anderson, who died last year, had multiple lesions across her cortex

A former Australian athlete was diagnosed with chronic traumatic encephalopathy, marking the first time a female professional athlete has been found to have the degenerative brain disease stemming from repetitive head trauma.

Researchers at the Australian Sports Brain Bank determined Heather Anderson, a professional Australian Rules footballer who died last year, had multiple lesions related to the disease, known as CTE, across her cortex, according to a statement from the Concussion Legacy Foundation. Anderson died in November at age 28.

Australian Rules football is a fast-paced tackling and kicking game. It’s one of the country’s most popular sports. The professional women’s Australian Football League launched in 2017.

Foundation officials said the findings should serve as a warning for the women’s sports world as more female athletes participate in contact sports.

“This case should be seen as a canary in a coal mine that she’s certainly not the only young AFL player with CTE,” said Chris Nowinski, co-founder of the Concussion Legacy Foundation. “It should make us stop and ask: ‘Does this matter to us?,’ which it should, and therefore how do we prevent it? That conversation just has not been prioritized.”

Symptoms of CTE include memory loss, impulse control problems, depression and progressive dementia, according to the Boston University CTE Center. Scientists can only diagnose the progressive degenerative disease after death through brain-tissue analysis. There is no known cure.

The disease is still being studied. Researchers have found CTE in athletes playing contact sports including boxing, American football and hockey, and in military veterans.

A study published in 2017 found 87% of donated brains from former high-school, college, semiprofessional and professional football players showed signs of the disease. Among former National Football League players in the study, 110 of 111 brains showed signs of CTE. Researchers noted that those sampled for the study were people expected to have experienced head trauma, and had on average played for much longer than most recreational players.

Research into the connection between contact sports and CTE has sparked concern in the U.S. in recent years, particularly within American football. The National Football League has changed some rules to limit potential injuries. Some high school football programs are using technology like helmet sensors to help track the hits young players take.

A small number of women have been diagnosed with CTE, but Anderson’s diagnosis is the first among female professional athletes, researchers said in a paper about the diagnosis. Anderson played contact sports for 18 years, beginning at 5 years old. She played both Australian Rules football and rugby, eventually playing professionally in her early 20s. Anderson played for the Adelaide Crows, which won the league’s first Grand Final in 2017. She was known for wearing a soft-shelled pink helmet while she played.

Over the course of her career, she suffered one concussion and four possible concussions that weren’t officially diagnosed, researchers said. Anderson also served in the military for nine years. Researchers said she suffered no known concussions related to her service.

Athletes who begin playing contact sports in their youth and into adulthood face the greatest risk of developing CTE, researchers said. The growth of professional women’s leagues in recent years means more women are playing at a higher level.

The Concussion Legacy Foundation and Boston University in June published guidelines to help sports organizations lower the risk of athletes developing CTE. They include limiting hits to the head during practice and increasing the minimum age to participate in parts of the sports that could lead to repeated head injuries.

“I hope this begins a dialogue with sports-covering bodies on this issue,” Nowinski said. “We can predict here in 2023 that this is going to be the first of many, many cases of high-profile female athletes developing CTE.”