>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 7th of July 2023

>>> Up
* Antin Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 20 euros
* ConvaTec Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 200 pence
* Duell Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 1.60 euros
* Elementis Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 144 pence
* Newmont Corp Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $61
* Rotork Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 370 pence
* Saint-Gobain Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 68 euros
* Scatec Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 115 kroner
* Wienerberger Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 37.50 euros

>>> Down
* Atrium Ljungberg Cut to Sell at ABG; PT 170 kronor
* Avance Gas Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 100 kroner
* BHP Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 2,400 pence
* BW LPG Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 100 kroner
* Dorian LPG Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT $25
* Getinge Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 210 kronor
* United Internet Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 15 euros
* Vincit Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 4.80 euros
* Zurich Ins. Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 445 Swiss francs

>>> Initiation
* Fuchs Petrolub Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 45 euros
* IBM Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $145

>>> Call
* Elementis Upgraded at JPMorgan on Better Earnings Backdrop
* GTCR’s Worldpay Takeover; Jefferies Turnaround: Financials Wrap
* Rotork Upgraded to Buy at Jefferies on Healthy Balance Sheet
* Swedish Banks Can Withstand Real Estate Collapse, SEB Says

>>> What to look at today - 7th of July 2023

Shares fell across Asia on Friday after stronger-than-expected private hiring data in the US roiled equities on Wall Street and pushed up Treasury yields. A region-wide stock gauge slid for a third day, with large declines in Australia and in Hong Kong-listed technology firms. US equity futures extended on losses seen Thursday in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 benchmarks as investors turned their focus to the release of critical nonfarm payrolls numbers later in the day. ADP Research Institute data showed US companies added the most jobs in more than a year in June, underscoring the inflationary threat from the resilient labor market. Samsung Electronics Co. dropped in Seoul after reporting its biggest decline in quarterly revenue since at least 2009. Japanese drug maker Eisai Co. was among the biggest contributors to losses in the Topix index on concern over adoption risks for its Alzheimer’s drug, even after the medication received full approval from the Food and Drug Administration.  Treasuries extended losses in Asia with the policy sensitive two-year yield at 5%, while that on the 10-year note hovered near the highest since March. The two-year yield jumped as much as 17 basis points Thursday following the ADP report and data showing the service sector expanded in June at the fastest pace in four months. The slide in Treasuries reverberated across Asia, with Australia’s 10-year yield climbing to the highest level since 2014, before paring the advance. New Zealand’s bond yields also jumped. Currencies were mixed in Asia after the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose to the highest level in about four weeks Thursday. The yen was marginally stronger after rising against all its Group-of-10 peers in the prior session, supported by comments from the Bank of Japan about a “balanced” approach toward yield-curve control. 
The offshore yuan traded in a narrow range after the People’s Bank of China ramped up support for the currency again through its daily fixing. Swap contracts linked to the Federal Reserve’s future policy decisions almost fully price in a quarter-point interest-rate hike by July 26 and show a growing likelihood of an additional move by year-end. This expectation for higher rates is reinforcing bets on tighter monetary policy globally as central banks struggle to rein in inflation. Traders will be on tenterhooks for Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment reports to see if they reinforce or reduce pressure on the Fed to raise rates soon. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting figures to moderate.  In Asia, investors were on the lookout for any stimulus decision by the Chinese government. The country is at a critical stage of economic recovery and industrial upgrading, Premier Li said during an event on Thursday. He pledged to “spare no time” in implementing a batch of targeted policies to strengthen the country’s economic recovery. Traders in Chinese assets were also watching the meeting of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Premier Li Qiang in Beijing for any signs of improvement in the frayed trade ties of the two superpowers. Oil headed for a second weekly gain after OPEC+ leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia tightened supplies and US crude stockpiles fell. Gold steadied Friday, but remained on track for a fourth consecutive weekly loss. US After Hours BIIB is the big news as FDA converted Leqembi to traditional approval, stock remains halted; LEVI -5.9% lower on earnings; ABBV -0.1% ticks lower on reduced guidance.

Nikkei -0.77% Hang Seng -0,28% CSI -0.03% Shanghai +0.13% Shenzen -0.20%

Eur$ 1.0895 CNH 7.2519 CNY 7.2434 JPY 143.83 GBP 1.2743 CHF 0.8957 RUB 91.0842 TRY 26.1223 WTI$ 72.07 +0.38% Gold 1,912 +0.06% BTC 30,100 -0.71% ETH 1,855 -1.50%

S&P -0.08% Nasdaq -0.11% EuroStoxx +0.28% Ftse +0.02% Dax +0.22% SMI +0.04%

Macro :
- EU paves way to quit international accord on energy investments
- UK Plans to Reverse MiFID II Ban on Free Research for Clients
- EU Is Pushing China to Narrow the Scope of Metal Export Controls
- BlackRock’s Nearly Perfect ETF Record Spurs Hope of Bitcoin Fund
- Hedge Fund Dymon Hires Yu From Goldman, Aims to Raise $1 Billion
- Broadcom to Build Chip Plant in Spain, Economy Minister Says

Keep an eye on :
- BABA US : China Will Wrap Ant Probe With $1.1 Billion Fine, Reuters Says -->
- AZE BB : Azelis Holder PSP Investments Holding Europe Offers Shares
- BIIB US : Biogen, Eisai Alzheimer’s Drug Gets Full Approval
- CABP LN : CAB Payments London Debut Highlights IPO Doldrums: ECM Watch
- CO FP : Casino Groupe Posts Full Text of Rival Offers Online
- CLN SW : Clariant Lowers FY Sales Forecast
- CLASB SS : Clas Ohlson June Sales +5%
- ENEL IM : KKR, Entel to Buy Stake in Telefonica’s Peru Fiber Wholesale
- FABG SS : Fabege 1H Rental Income SEK1.69B Vs. SEK1.48B Y/y
- GRF SM : China Resources Said to Weigh Deal for Grifols Stake in Raas
- LAZ US : Lazard Dismissed Snellenbarger for Alleged Misconduct at Party
- MC FP : L Catterton Said to Tap Banks for US IPO of Birkenstock
- OR FP : Coty Sinks Most in 2 Months Despite Higher Estimates
- MYTIL GA : Mytilineos Raises €500m From New 7-Year Bond Issue
- NETW LN : Brookfield Offers Share Alternative in Network International Bid
- NTEL NO : Nortel Holders Agree With Unifon on Sale of 70% of Company
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk Sues to Block Pharmacy-Made Wegovy Knock-Offs
- ORA FP : E&, Orange Said to Weigh Bids For 45% Stake in Ethio Telecom
- PIRC IM : Sinochem to Nominate Jian for Pirelli Chair Seat: Ansa (July 6)
- PRS SM : Berlusconi’s MFE Signals Interest in Growing in Spanish Market
- REP SM : Repsol 2Q Refining Margin $6.4/Bbl Vs $23.3/Bbl a Year Earlier
- REP SM : Repsol Taps Lazard to Find Methanol Plant Investor: Expansion
- ROTH FP : Concordia Bought All Rothschild Shares Permitted Prior to Offer
- SGO FP : Saint-Gobain to Invest $235M to Expand Florida Gypsum Site
- SWTQ SW : Schweiter Technologies Names Urs Scheidegger as Group CFO Sept.1
- ENR GY : Siemens Energy Sets Up Twin Taskforces to Investigate Wind Unit
- GLE FP : SocGen’s €9 Billion CIB Losing Growth, Share as ROE Prioritized
- SUN SW : Sulzer Boosts FY Net Orders Forecast
- TSLA US : Tesla Starts to Lay Off Some Battery Workers at China Factory
- YOU LN : YouGov to Buy GfK’s Consumer Panel Business for €315m in Cash

>>> US After Hours Summary: BIIB is the big news as FDA converted Leqembi to tra

After Hours Summary: BIIB is the big news as FDA converted Leqembi to traditional approval, stock remains halted; LEVI -5.9% lower on earnings; ABBV -0.1% ticks lower on reduced guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: SAND +1.8%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: GRRR +36.4% (signs contract worth more than $270 mln with Government of Egypt), CRON +4.3% (receives unsolicited indications of interest from third parties), CZR +0.4% (Caesars Sportsbook mobile sports betting app expands into Puerto Rico), ZLAB +0.1% (names new CFO)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: LEVI -5.9%, KRUS -1.8%, ABBV -0.1% (guides Q2 and FY23 EPS below consensus)

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: BLZE -5.6% (eliminates dual-class share structure), MRNS -3.7% (Adage Capital discloses 5.45% stake), KTB -2% (in sympathy with LEVI earnings), SRPT -0.9% (selects AcariaHealth as part of the limited distribution network for ELEVIDYS), RIOT -0.8% (provides June production and operations updates), COST -0.7% (reports June comps of +3.0%), PLTR -0.7% (Director sold 37076 shares), LL -0.3% (names new CFO), QTRX -0.2% (launches LucentAD), CBOE -0.1% (names new CFO; also reports June trading volume), ABNB -0.1% (CEO sold 30000 shares)

>>> US Close Dow -1,07% S&P -0,79% Nasdaq -0,82% Russell -1,64%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The major indices all registered losses on this downbeat session, yet they were able to rebound from intraday lows around mid-morning with no specific news to account for the move, although the rebound coincided with market rates sliding back from peak intraday levels. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average had been down as much as 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.5%, respectively. By the close, their losses ranged from 0.8% to 1.1%.  

Even the Russell 2000, which lagged its larger peers with a 1.6% decline, bounced back from an earlier loss of 2.6%. 

Rising market rates, the biggest factor driving today's retreat, created a reason to take more money off the table following the market's strong start to the year. The 2-yr note yield rose seven basis points to 5.01% and the 10-yr note yield rose 10 basis points to 4.04%. Those moves were in response to this morning's strong labor data and the stronger-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for June. 

Briefly, ADP estimated that 497,000 jobs were added to private sector payrolls in June (Briefing.com consensus 245,000). That news preceded a report that weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending July 1 were 248,000 (Briefing.com consensus 250,000), which is well below recession-like levels. The Employment Situation Report for June will be released before the open on Friday.

The bump in rates stoked valuation concerns in the stock market as participants considered the possibility of the Fed being more aggressive than expected with its tightening action. A 25 basis points rate hike in July has been solidified while expectations for rate hikes at future meetings increased. 

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a second rate hike in September jumped to 27.7% from 18.1% yesterday; however, the probability of a rate hike in November jumped to 46.7% from 35.9%.

All 11 S&P 500 sectors and 28 of the 30 Dow components closed with losses. Apple (AAPL 191.81, +0.48, +0.3%) and Microsoft (MSFT 341.27, +3.12, +0.9%) were the lone outperformers to close with a gain from the DJIA. Those stocks also offered some support to the information technology sector (-0.2%), which saw the slimmest decline today.

Other sectors that outperformed the broader market included consumer staples (-0.3%) and real estate (-0.6%). Meanwhile, the energy (-2.5%) and consumer discretionary (-1.7%) sectors logged the largest declines.

  • Nasdaq Composite: +30.7% YTD
  • S&P 500: +14.9% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +6.1% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +4.6% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.3% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 4.4% with purchase applications dropping 5.0% and refinance applications falling 4.0%.
  • According to ADP, private sector hiring increased by 497,000 in June (consensus 245,000) following a downwardly revised 267,000 (from 278,000) in May. Jobs in the goods-producing sector increased by 124,000 while jobs in the service-providing sector surged by 373,000. Small and medium businesses led the hiring, registering gains of 299,000 and 183,000, respectively, versus a decline of 8,000 positions at large establishments.
  • Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 1 increased by 12,000 to 248,000 (Briefing.com consensus 245,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending June 24 decreased by 13,000 to 1.720 million.
    • The key takeaway from the report is much the same: initial jobless claims -- a leading indicator -- continue to run well below recession-like levels.
  • The May Trade Balance Report showed a narrowing in the trade deficit to $69.0 billion ( consensus -$69.0 billion) from an upwardly revised $74.4 billion (from -$74.6 billion) in April. The deficit moved in a positive direction, but not because of any overwhelming strength in exports. On the contrary, exports were $2.1 billion less than April exports. The swing factor was that imports were $7.5 billion less than April imports.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the decline in exports and imports is emblematic of a softening in global demand that one would expect to see in an environment where many of the world's leading central banks are raising rates.
  • The final IHS Markit Services PMI reading for June fell to 54.4 from 54.9. 
  • JOLTS - Job Openings totaled 9.824 million in May following a revised count of 10.320 million in April (from 10.103 million).
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for June checked in at 53.9% (consensus 51.1%), increasing from 50.3% in May. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%. The increase from May suggests activity in the services sector picked up steam in June.
    • The key takeaway from the report is the understanding that services sector activity expanded at a faster pace in June, a trend that will temper hard-landing concerns and presumably contribute to the Fed's inclination to implement additional tightening.
  • Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 1.51 million barrels after last week's draw of 9.60 million barrels.

Market participants will receive the June Employment Report tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET that will include:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls ( consensus 220,000; prior 339,000) 
  • Nonfarm Private Payrolls ( consensus 210,000; prior 283,000)
  • Average Hourly Earnings ( consensus 0.3%; prior 0.3%)
  • Unemployment Rate ( consensus 3.6%; prior 3.7%)
  • Average Workweek ( consensus 34.3; prior 34.3)

Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories (prior +76 bcf) will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET. 

Le Figaro : Ukraine: le rôle méconnu de la CIA au coeur de la guerre

Ukraine: le rôle méconnu de la CIA au coeur de la guerre

RÉCIT - Jusqu’à présent ce jeu délicat a plutôt réussi. Mais il n’est pas certain qu’il continue.

Correspondant à Washington

LA CIA a retrouvé avec la guerre en Ukraine son adversaire russe, celui contre lequel elle avait été créée en 1947. Mais le conflit a aussi donné à l’agence un rôle central dans l’immense opération d’assistance à l’Ukraine lancée par les États-Unis.

Dans une enquête publiée mercredi, l’hebdomadaire Newsweek décrit ce qui peut l’être sur ce rôle de la CIA dans une guerre où les États-Unis cherchent à la fois à aider l’Ukraine à repousser l’invasion russe, mais aussi à limiter la défaite de la Russie, tout en évitant que leur conflit ne s’étende au-delà des frontières de l’Ukraine, ou ne connaisse une escalade.

«Il y a une guerre clandestine, avec des règles clandestines, qui sous-tend tout ce qui se passe en Ukraine , explique un haut responsable du renseignement de l’Administration Biden cité par le magazine, qui oblige la CIA à jouer un rôle de premier plan d’espionnage, de négociation, de fournisseur de renseignements, de logisticien, de gestionnaire des relations sensibles avec l’Otan et, peut-être le plus important de tous, de veiller à ce que la guerre ne devienne pas encore plus incontrôlable.»

Au fil du Dniepr, un désastre sans fin après l’explosion du barrage de Kakhovka: le récit de l’envoyé spécial du Figaro : https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/au-fil-du-dniepr-un-desastre-sans-fin-apres-l-explosion-du-barrage-de-kakhovka-le-recit-de-l-envoye-special-du-figaro-20230705

La CIA s’est vue confier dans l’immense opération logistique d’aide militaire à l’Ukraine une partie des missions qui reviennent normalement au Pentagone. Joe Biden ayant décidé qu’il ne devait pas y avoir de soldats américains engagés dans cette guerre, l’assistance militaire sur le sol ukrainien est en partie assurée par des personnels de l’agence. Selon l’hebdomadaire, la CIA aurait déployé en Ukraine depuis le début de l’invasion russe des personnels, «moins d’une centaine à la fois» afin d’assurer diverses missions, dont la lutte contre la corruption, florissante compte tenu de la quantité et du prix des matériels livrés à l’Ukraine.

Toujours d’après Newsweek, l’agence opère parallèlement à la chaîne logistique du Pentagone un circuit clandestin, utilisant une flotte d’avions banalisés, pour acheminer des armes et du matériel à l’Ukraine. La Pologne, par où transitent des quantités phénoménales d’armes et de munitions, est au cœur des opérations de la CIA. Ce pays, qui avait déjà servi à l’agence dans la guerre contre le terrorisme pour héberger des centres d’interrogation, joue un rôle encore plus central dans les opérations de la CIA en Europe. C’est là où elle interagit avec ses partenaires ukrainiens et les forces spéciales d’une vingtaine de pays, mais aussi où elle maintient ses contacts avec ses agents ukrainiens ou russes.

En Russie, l’avenir incertain du groupe Wagner : https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/en-russie-l-avenir-incertain-du-groupe-wagner-20230628

Le volet du renseignement, plus classique, est aussi multiforme. Par ses capacités techniques et humaines, la CIA est l’un des principaux acteurs de la guerre du renseignement qui se déroule en Ukraine. L’agence mène aussi une intense activité de contre-espionnage. Les services de renseignements russes sont très actifs en Ukraine, jusqu’au sein du gouvernement et de l’armée. «Presque tout ce que les États-Unis partagent avec l’Ukraine est supposé parvenir également aux services de renseignements russes», dit une source à Newsweek. En Europe, où les espions et sympathisants russes sont nombreux, en particulier dans les pays de l’Est, l’agence a aussi fort à faire pour «traquer les pénétrations russes dans les gouvernements et les services de renseignements étrangers». Dans de nombreux pays d’Europe, des espions ont été démasqués, des «diplomates» russes expulsés, ce qui indique assez clairement que leur nombre réel est sans doute bien plus élevé.

Mais la tâche la moins classique confiée à la CIA, et la plus délicate, consiste à éviter que le conflit ne s’étende au-delà des frontières ukrainiennes, ou ne débouche sur une escalade aux conséquences imprévues. La difficulté est double. Vis-à-vis de l’Ukraine, l’agence américaine doit s’assurer que ce pays ne mènera pas d’attaques risquant d’entraîner une surréaction. Vis-à-vis de la Russie, la CIA est chargée de maintenir une communication ouverte, et d’assurer à Moscou que les États-Unis ne mènent pas d’opérations clandestines contre elle.

Un équilibre régulièrement menacé

Dans un conflit où l’instabilité est la règle, cet équilibre est régulièrement menacé. En échange de l’aide américaine, Kiev a depuis le début tacitement accepté de limiter ses opérations à la partie de son territoire occupée par la Russie. Mais plusieurs opérations clandestines indiquent que ces limites ont sans doute été testées. Le sabotage du gazoduc Nord Stream sous la mer Baltique en septembre 2022, attribué à «un groupe pro-ukrainien» dans les documents classifiés américains ayant fuité l’hiver dernier, aurait été mené malgré les mises en garde de l’agence américaine. Cette attaque avait été suivie par une explosion sur le viaduc de Kertch, le pont qui relie la péninsule de Crimée à la Russie, puis une autre série d’explosions mystérieuses sur la base russe d’Engels. L’agence américaine était alors sortie de son habituel silence pour faire savoir que «l’allégation selon laquelle la CIA soutient d’une manière ou d’une autre des réseaux de saboteurs en Russie est catégoriquement fausse».

Nord Stream 2: un journaliste américain accuse Washington du sabotage : https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/nord-stream-2-un-journaliste-americain-accuse-washington-du-sabotage-20230213

L’attaque de drones contre le Kremlin, le 3 mai dernier, avait suscité de nouvelles spéculations. Le secrétaire du Conseil de sécurité russe, Nikolaï Patrouchev, avait accusé les États-Unis et la Grande-Bretagne de mener «des attaques terroristes (…) destinées à déstabiliser la situation sociale et politique et à saper les fondements constitutionnels et la souveraineté de la Russie».

La mutinerie avortée de Wagner et d’Evgueni Prigojine a de nouveau placé la CIA dans une situation délicate. Selon les médias américains, l’agence aurait eu vent des préparatifs de cette révolte quelques jours auparavant, mais se serait soigneusement abstenue de tout commentaire, faisant savoir aussitôt à Moscou après son déclenchement qu’elle n’avait rien à voir avec celle-ci.

Jusqu’à présent ce jeu délicat a plutôt réussi. Mais il n’est pas certain qu’il continue. Le plus grand défi de la CIA reste finalement de connaître les intentions des belligérants. Vladimir Poutine demeure une énigme, et ses intentions du domaine de la spéculation. La principale préoccupation de l’agence américaine est de voir la Russie à court d’options recourir à l’arme nucléaire. Mais même Volodymyr Zelensky et les Ukrainiens conservent une autonomie de décision. «Les deux parties s’engagent à limiter leurs actions, mais c’est aux États-Unis qu’il incombe de faire respecter ces engagements. Tout cela dépend de la qualité de nos renseignements», indique à Newsweek un responsable américain.