>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 2nd of March 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Adevinta Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 105 kroner
* Alcon Raised to Hold at SocGen
* Ambu Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 140 kroner
* FRoSTA Raised to Hold at GSC Research; PT 70 euros
* MotorK Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 3.60 euros (+)
* Solaria Energia Raised to Hold at Renta 4; PT 18 euros
* Wolters Kluwer Raised to Neutral at Exane; PT 105 euros

>>> Down
* Babcock Cut to Neutral at Citi on Risks From Legacy Issues
* BT Cut to Sell at Numis; PT 115 pence (+)
* Efecte Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 12 euros
* Persimmon Cut to Reduce at Numis; PT 1,185 pence

>>> Initiation
* Boa Concept Rated New Buy at Euroland Corporate; PT 42.50 euros (+)
* Boliden Rated New Underperform at Credit Suisse; PT 385 kronor
* D'Ieteren Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 220 euros
* Ergomed Rated New Buy at Investec; PT 1,397 pence (+)
* Franchise Brands Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 270 pence (+)
* Norsk Hydro Rated New Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT 86 kroner
* Spie Reinstated Strong Buy at Portzamparc; PT 31.50 euros
* Tomra Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 205 kroner

>>> Call
* Buy European Banks’ 2024 Dividend Futures, JPM Strategists Say (+)
* Evonik Earnings Miss Expectations, Demand Seen Slow: Jefferies
* Morgan Stanley Strategists Say Europe Firms Post Healthy Results
* Norsk Hydro Started Outperform and Preferred to Boliden at CS
* Travis Perkins Lacks Catalysts, Downgraded to Hold at Peel Hunt
* VAT Group’s Lower Guidance Should Not Surprise, Analysts Say
* Workday Cut to Hold at SocGen on Valuation Following Results

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Subsea 7 (SOC TH) +0.5%
    • Subsea 7 4Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -1.1%
    • Rohm, Fuji Electric Drop as Tesla Mulls Less Silicon Carbide
  • Nel (D7G TH) -1.2%
    • NEL ASA: Nel ASA: Annual Report 2022
  • Nordic Semiconductor (N0S TH) -1.7%
  • Genmab (GE9 TH) -1.9%
  • STMicroelectronics (SGM TH) -2.2%
    • Rohm, Fuji Electric Drop as Tesla Mulls Less Silicon Carbide
  • Evonik (EVK TH) -2.3%
    • Evonik Earnings Miss Expectations, Demand Seen Slow: Jefferies
  • AB InBev (1NBA TH) -2.3%
    • AB InBev Reports First Decline in Volume Since Pandemic
  • Kion (KGX TH) -3.9%
    • Kion Sees 2023 Adjusted Ebit at Least EU550M, Est. EU500.7M
  • Merck KGaA (MRK TH) -4%
    • Merck KGaA Sees Profit Declining for 2023 as Covid Demand Ebbs
  • Covestro (1COV TH) -7.6%
    • Covestro 1Q Ebitda Forecast Misses Estimates

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -0.8%
    • Rohm, Fuji Electric Drop as Tesla Mulls Less Silicon Carbide
  • Merck KGaA (MRK TH) -3.4%
    • Merck KGaA Sees Profit Declining for 2023 as Covid Demand Ebbs
  • Covestro (1COV TH) -7.1%
    • Covestro 1Q Ebitda Forecast Misses Estimates
MDAX:
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) -1.3%
  • Evonik (EVK TH) -1.6%
    • Evonik Earnings Miss Expectations, Demand Seen Slow: Jefferies
  • Befesa (BFSA TH) -1.7%
    • Befesa FY Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
  • Kion (KGX TH) -5.8%
    • Kion Sees 2023 Adjusted Ebit at Least EU550M, Est. EU500.7M
SDAX:
  • GFT (GFT TH) +2.3%
    • GFT Sees 2023 Pretax Profit EU72M
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +1.6%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) +0.3%
  • Schaeffler (SHA TH) +0.1%
  • flatexDEGIRO (FTK TH) -0.6%
  • Bilfinger (GBF TH) -0.7%

WSJ : Behind Fan Bao’s Detention—a Suspected Quid Pro Quo

Behind Fan Bao’s Detention—a Suspected Quid Pro Quo
Financier has been questioned about former senior executive at his investment bank

Chinese financier Fan Bao, who went missing last month, has been detained by authorities in mainland China in connection with a corruption investigation targeting a former senior executive at the investment bank he founded, according to people familiar with the matter.

The investment bank, China Renaissance Holdings Ltd. , disclosed on Feb. 16 that it had been unable to contact Mr. Bao, who serves as the bank’s chairman and chief executive. On Sunday, it said in a regulatory filing that it had since discovered Mr. Bao is aiding an investigation being carried out by authorities in China, which it didn’t name.

Mr. Bao was detained in February by antigraft investigators in relation to a case involving Cong Lin, the former president of China Renaissance and chairman of its Hong Kong securities subsidiary, the people said. Mr. Cong became the target of a government investigation related to his dealings before joining China Renaissance and was detained in September, leading to his departure from the company, according to some of the people.

The information office of China’s cabinet, the State Council, which handles press inquiries on behalf of the government, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment and declined to transmit a request for comment to the Communist Party’s central corruption watchdog.

Before Mr. Bao’s detention, authorities had spoken to him several times over a period of months regarding the probe of Mr. Cong, the people said. Investigators asked Mr. Bao about a suspected quid pro quo involving a loan Mr. Cong helped arrange for China Renaissance before joining the firm, but Mr. Bao didn’t provide them with all the information they sought, according to some of the people.

Mr. Bao is being held under a special form of detention known as liuzhi, or “retention in custody,” according to the people. Under that system, a person may be detained for up to six months without access to a lawyer. It couldn’t be determined whether authorities planned to formally arrest or charge him.

Asked for information about Messrs. Bao and Cong, China Renaissance referred to its statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange on Sunday about Mr. Bao’s assisting an investigation, adding it would make further announcements “as and when appropriate.”

News of the disappearance of Mr. Bao, a top deal maker in China’s technology sector, ricocheted around finance and business circles. China Renaissance’s share price tumbled 28% after the company confirmed on Feb. 17 that it was unable to reach him.

China Renaissance, whose business spans securities trading, equity underwriting and investment management, said in its most recent exchange filing on Feb. 26 that it is operating normally and being supervised by its executive committee.

Mr. Bao’s predicament and the official silence surrounding it have stirred consternation among the country’s business elite. Some say they fear the Communist Party’s opaque enforcement tactics will continue to weaken the country’s beleaguered private sector even as Beijing strives to project a more business-friendly image following a rash of regulatory crackdowns and pandemic restrictions that dented economic growth.

A veteran of Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse Group AG , Mr. Bao helped broker mergers that formed Chinese ride-hailing company Didi Global Inc. and e-commerce company Meituan. He is a familiar face on the international financial-conference circuit.

The 52-year-old’s detention is partly related to a $200 million credit line provided to China Renaissance in 2017 by ICBC International Holdings Ltd., a division of the state-owned Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. , according to people familiar with the investigation. The loan was secured by shares in a vehicle controlled by Mr. Bao and was due to be repaid after China Renaissance went public in Hong Kong. ICBC International was also one of the sponsors of the IPO that raised close to $350 million in September 2018.

Mr. Cong was serving as head of ICBC International at the time of the loan and joined China Renaissance in 2020, two years after the investment bank went public. One question investigators have is whether Mr. Bao offered Mr. Cong a position at his bank to secure the funding, the people said.

Mr. Cong was supposed to join China Renaissance in 2019 but the move was delayed by a protracted departure audit process, according to some of the people. Chinese government and state-owned enterprise officials must go through an audit looking for signs of malfeasance before being allowed to leave their posts.

Chinese investigative media outlet Caixin earlier reported that investigators were looking into Mr. Cong’s role in the loan to China Renaissance.

Questions about the loan arrangement arose as part of a larger investigation into Mr. Cong’s dealings at ICBC International, and earlier at ICBC’s financial leasing affiliate, where he held several senior positions, according to some of the people. Several other executives at both ICBC divisions have been targeted by corruption probes over the past year, including two deputy governors of the bank’s Guangdong and Yunnan branches.

Mr. Cong has been unreachable since late last year, according to people familiar with the matter. China Renaissance hasn’t released any statement about Mr. Cong’s disappearance.

ICBC didn’t reply to requests for comment.

China’s business community has been unnerved by the disappearances of several prominent figures since leader Xi Jinping launched an aggressive anticorruption drive that has unfolded largely behind closed doors. One of the best known figures, Canadian-Chinese financier Xiao Jianhua, was sentenced to 13 years in prison on corruption charges last year, a half-decade after he was snatched from his home in a luxury hotel in Hong Kong and smuggled across the border without explanation.

Others have resurfaced only after collaborating with investigators. The billionaire chairman of Shanghai-based conglomerate Fosun Group, Guo Guangchang, returned to work after briefly being taken away to assist with an unspecified investigation in 2015. The same year, Yim Fung, chairman of Hong Kong-listed brokerage firm Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd. , vanished under similarly mysterious circumstances only to resurface a month later.

FT : Investors brand US private equity swoop for UK’s Hyve ‘opportunistic’

Investors brand US private equity swoop for UK’s Hyve ‘opportunistic’
Providence bid undervalues exhibition company, say leading shareholders

Top shareholders in exhibition company Hyve have branded the takeover approach by Providence Equity of the US “opportunistic” as it warned of the risks to UK companies of being acquired too cheaply.

Fund managers Redwheel and Blackmoor Investment Partners are among London listed Hyve’s long-term shareholders that say the bid does not fairly value the company and its future growth prospects.

It comes as energy services company Wood Group revealed it was the target of three bids from US private equity firm Apollo last week in another sign that UK small and mid-cap stocks are vulnerable to takeovers.

The Providence warning follows a cash offer of 105p per share for Hyve valuing the business at about £300mn after an earlier approach of 101p. Providence Equity has three weeks to lodge a formal offer.

Douglas Smith, managing partner at top 20 shareholder Blackmoor, said: “We think that the suggested price is not representative of [Hyve’s] value.”

He said the company “has real potential but is at a point in its life cycle where it has suffered” largely as a result of Covid-19 lockdowns and the war against Ukraine.

He added the share price, which took a hammering from the pandemic, “has little to do with the intrinsic value and prospects of the company”.

It was one of many companies that suffered because of lockdowns, which stopped it from organising exhibitions and conferences. Its shares are trading at 103p, more than 80 per cent down on highs in January 2020.

The war against Ukraine also accelerated a planned exit from Russia, which represented half its revenue in 2021.

Investors said Hyve’s management has successfully navigated and repositioned its business since the lockdown hit, paving the way for growth yet to be reflected in the share price.

Redwheel fund manager David Stewart, the third-largest shareholder in Hyve, was upbeat about medium term growth predicted by management of at least £250mn in revenues and an operating margin of 30 per cent.

“It looks pretty positive and should be an opportunity for [long-term] shareholders to recoup some of the losses [from Covid-19 and Russia],” he said.

“The UK, in particular in the small and mid-cap space, is trading on comparatively meagre multiples and so where the public markets aren’t willing to value these companies at higher multiples, strategic and financial buyers appear willing to do so. It does make quality small and mid caps vulnerable,” he added.

Another shareholder said the price offered by Providence “was far too low” and about the same level of 107p when the company raised funds in November 2021.

A fourth shareholder, in the top 10, said: “My sense is that the price is too low given the fairly obvious deep value in this business. Now that the Russian assets are disposed, this should . . . fit nicely and assertively within a larger industry player — like Informa, Ascential Events, Clarion, Tarsus.”

Hyve declined to comment. The company’s board said it was “considering its position” in response to the Providence proposal last week.

FT : Anorexia is the deadliest psychiatric disorder. Could psychedelics help?

Anorexia is the deadliest psychiatric disorder. Could psychedelics help?
A Nasdaq-listed biotech is trialling the active ingredient in magic mushrooms as a possible new treatment

Aly began to cry as she took a sip of water. For years, she was afraid of anything — food or liquid — passing her lips. The 34-year-old Californian had spent more than a decade in and out of hospital since developing anorexia as a teenager. Now she felt something new. As she drank, she discovered that the usual sensation of fear was completely absent. Instead, she felt a curious affinity. “It was just this beautiful moment where I was like, ‘Oh, I’m water,’” she says. “It was so strange, but really healing.”

Quietly spoken, with large dark eyes, Aly is talking to me on a video call. (She asked me not to use her last name.) The hood of her jumper is up and, as she recalls the decades during which she suffered seizures and damage to her heart and kidneys, her tone becomes flat with exhaustion. She became anorexic at the age of 14 in the wake of a traumatic event. “I found restriction was my way to just try to be invisible and try to control my thoughts,” she says. When she refused treatment in her twenties, courts ordered her to be force fed.

Anorexia nervosa is the deadliest psychiatric disorder. Patients are at risk from the physical impacts of starving themselves, as well as from a high rate of suicide. Medical knowledge of the condition dates back to the 19th century, but no drug has been approved to treat it. Psychiatrists tend to offer a combination of therapy, antidepressants and nutritional programmes aimed at helping the patient regain weight. But these frequently fail, with some experts estimating that only about one-third of people make a full recovery.

So, two years ago, when Aly heard about a small medical trial in San Diego investigating the effects on anorexia of psilocybin, the active ingredient in magic mushrooms, she felt a flicker of hope. “Something in me knew that if I didn’t do it,” she says, “I was going to be dead by the end of last year.”

Ekaterina Malievskaia stands in her small office in London’s Soho, gazing at a self-portrait by Lene Marie Fossen, a Norwegian photographer. The picture shows Fossen hunched over, her bones protruding, in an abandoned hospital. She died from anorexia in 2019 at the age of 33. It was while watching a documentary about the photographer that Malievskaia, a 56-year-old doctor and co-founder of the biotech firm Compass Pathways, says she began to understand some hard truths about the disorder. “She was talking about her experience, and kind of . . . how slowly she was dying, and no one could understand that . . . it’s not a disease of vanity,” she says. She also noticed how Fossen, who agreed to be filmed, was frustrated with medical professionals’ relentless focus on weight gain, while feeling that the root causes of her illness were not being addressed. “They were treating her symptoms, but they were not looking at her as a whole person.”

Born in Ekaterinburg, Russia, Malievskaia trained as a doctor in St Petersburg before moving to the US in 1991, where she received an MSc in public health at New York University. She met her husband, the US software entrepreneur George Goldsmith, in 2008. The couple were drawn into the world of psychedelics in 2013, when Malievskaia was searching for new treatments for her son’s obsessive compulsive disorder. Reading medical journals in the middle of the night, she found an early study using psilocybin to treat the condition. She was surprised that there was “such a strong signal” that it could work. “I’ve never used any drugs. As a doctor, that never interested me. So, I woke up George and said, ‘You grew up in the ’60s and ’70s, you know something about that!’” she says. (Goldsmith is 11 years older than her.)


The cover of FT Weekend Magazine, March 4/5
She was right. As a teen in the late 1960s, Goldsmith had taken LSD recreationally, experiencing what he calls a “really interesting” trip. (Malievskaia attributes the drug-taking to “peer pressure”, but Goldsmith says it was “peer exposure”.) He became fascinated by the work of psychiatrists who had explored the therapeutic potential of psychedelics in the 1950s and early 1960s, until the experiments ground to a halt amid a political backlash against drug abuse and Richard Nixon’s 1971 announcement of a “war on drugs”.

By the mid-2010s, medical interest in hallucinogenic drugs had returned, with clinical trials taking place at universities in the US and Europe. Goldsmith and Malievskaia began to privately fund small studies. In 2015, they created the “Center of Mental Health Pathways And Support for Self-directed care”, Compass, as a non-profit and began meeting with academics in the field. But they quickly decided that there was, in Goldsmith’s words, “no way in God’s green earth” that a non-profit could drive the expensive and laborious development of a psychedelic drug towards regulatory approval. So, in 2016, they founded Compass Pathways. “From the beginning, it was not a psychedelic company. And the difference is that we are not inspired by the particular psychedelic drug,” says Malievskaia. “We are inspired by significant unmet need and patient suffering.”

The company’s first study investigated the impact of psilocybin on patients suffering “treatment-resistant depression”, a severe clinical condition that is unresponsive to medication or therapy. After promising results, they started the first phase 3 trial for psilocybin last year. They have also launched trials for post-traumatic stress disorder and anorexia. Malievskaia tears up when describing how eating disorders have some similarities with OCD. Both can be “ego-dystonic”, behaviours that persist against a person’s will and beliefs. “They understand that this is not the right way. And there’s nothing they can do. So these people, they kill themselves, not because they want to die, but because they cannot go on like this,” she says.

Compass’s psilocybin was used in the San Diego trial that Aly took part in. She was one of four out of 10 patients who showed clinically significant reductions in eating disorder symptoms after three months. The study was far too small to be conclusive, and similar studies from Imperial College London and Johns Hopkins have not yet reported results. But the results gave Compass enough hope to start a phase 2 trial of 60 participants late last year.

When Aly decided to participate in the trial, part of her feared that she was “failing” her eating disorder. “I really looked at my eating disorder as this thing that has always been there for me throughout all of these hard times in my life, so I almost felt I was betraying the anorexia and, like, abandoning it.”

In a small therapy room at King’s College Hospital in London, eating disorder specialist Hubertus Himmerich explains that people suffering from anorexia struggle to separate themselves from the condition. “This is the challenge . . . that you have patients who might superficially say to you, ‘I know that I’m suffering from anorexia’, but in front of the food they wouldn’t eat,” he says. “Whereas a patient with depression would do anything to get rid of the depression, take medications, go to group therapies, individual therapies and so on. This leads to a revolving-door situation.”

Himmerich estimates that about one-third of his patients will reach full recovery with treatment. Another third will have some symptoms for the rest of their life. And about 30 per cent will remain severely unwell, usually dying far younger than they should due to the toll of prolonged starvation.

At the Bethlem Royal Hospital in south-east London where Himmerich treats patients, he said about 300 or 400 people were on a waiting list for their first assessment when I met him in October, a dramatic increase from an average of 50 before the pandemic. During the Covid-19 pandemic, many patients’ conditions worsened without in-person check-ups and others, isolated and anxious, developed eating disorders for the first time. In the UK, hospital admissions for eating disorders have soared 84 per cent in the past five years.


So-called pro-Ana messaging is not hard to find on social media, with posts like “What I eat in a day” and “thinspo” (short for “thin inspiration”) trending and hashtags sending users from healthy eating posts into pro-anorexia content © Jules Julien
Treatment for anorexia typically includes cognitive behavioural therapy, which is aimed at addressing rigidity of thinking, learning new ways of managing emotions and enabling patients to become comfortable returning to a healthy weight. For patients so unwell that they have to be hospitalised, the last resort is feeding by tube, either with the patient’s permission or after they have been sectioned. Himmerich is also working on a trial for an antipsychotic called Olanzapine but patients can be reluctant to take it because, unlike psilocybin, it directly helps them gain weight.

Anorexia is defined by low body weight, fear of weight gain and body-image disturbance. The body has three systems that make us eat: the homeostatic system that releases hormones to ensure we get the energy we need for growth and movement, the hedonic system, which gets pleasure from eating, and the self-regulatory system in the prefrontal cortex, integrating personal values and social expectations. The latter could make us eat when we’re not hungry — because we’re at a wedding, for example — or not eat because we’re afraid of being overweight. In people with anorexia, the prefrontal cortex is thought to have too much power.

Rebecca Lester is a medical and psychological anthropologist who almost died from anorexia when she was a teenager. Now recovered, she is a professor at Washington University in St Louis and works as a licensed social worker with people with eating disorders. She notes that the disease is often bound up with issues of morality and signalling to one’s self and others that you are a “good and worthy person”. While anorexia is probably underdiagnosed in men — an estimated 2.2 per cent of women and 0.3 per cent of men are diagnosed with the condition — she says it is not surprising that more women are affected by the disease. “Still, we are predominantly judged by our bodies,” she says.

Vulnerable people today face a uniquely image-obsessed online culture, with Instagram, TikTok and photoshopped images leading to unprecedented pressure around appearance and weight. So-called pro-Ana messaging is not hard to find on social media, with posts like “What I eat in a day” and “thinspo” (short for “thin inspiration”) trending and hashtags sending users from healthy eating posts into pro-anorexia content. The Social Media Victims Law Center in Seattle and San Francisco has filed 19 cases against social media companies in the past year, claiming they have caused eating disorders. On niche online message boards, some people even advertise their services as “coaches” to push people deeper into anorexia, promising “meanspo”, bullying to keep people from eating.

Lester hopes that if psychedelics work, they could help change the conversation around anorexia to show that it is much more about “deeper existential issues” than “about somebody who stayed on a diet too long”. But she warns it could also feed into a wider movement to “biologise” all mental illness, which can ignore the cultural dynamics that are producing the problem in the first place.

When Malievskaia and Goldsmith first met with regulators in Europe in October 2016, they found the door surprisingly open. Legally, psychedelics are still scheduled as dangerous drugs, but medical regulators could see their promise. In fact, the European Medicines Agency brought to their attention a study that had been published by Imperial College London that year on the positive effects of psilocybin on severe depression. Instead of Malievskaia and Goldsmith’s initial plan to treat cancer patients with depression or existential distress, the EMA suggested Compass target a larger group: patients with treatment-resistant depression.

The next hurdle was creating a synthetic version of psilocybin, which could deliver a precise and pure dose and could be trademarked, unlike the substance found in magic mushrooms. Psilocybin was first clinically manufactured in 1959 by Sandoz, now part of Novartis, but the company had never commercialised it. If Compass could make psilocybin to meet today’s more exacting standards, it could own the manufacturing patents that would justify spending on expensive clinical trials, gaining about 20 years’ monopoly to sell the substance from when it filed patents. “The first organisation crossing the finish line with this becomes a new chemical entity and that makes it difficult for others to do,” says Goldsmith.

A number of Compass’s rivals, who are further behind, are already focusing on alternative versions, for example, modifying the substance to cut the time of a trip. The value of the market for drugs for treatment-resistant depression alone is expected to hit $2.8bn by 2029, according to Fortune Business Insights.


‘Psychedelic medicine is not medicine like we currently understand it,’ says Maya Albert, a participant in the San Diego study. ‘It’s not a pill that you take one day, and you’re better the next. You can’t extract the dosing from the work that needs to be done before and after’ © Jules Julien
In February 2017, the couple bumped into someone at a breakfast who introduced them to the billionaire Mike Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs partner and hedge fund manager turned cryptocurrency investor. “It was almost like everybody we met along the way, we were meeting at exactly the right time,” Goldsmith says. “There was no deck…” he adds, before his wife interrupts. “We had a deck. We had a drug. We had scientific advice. We were prepared,” she says.

Novogratz introduced the company to Christian Angermayer, a German fintech investor who went on to found Atai Life Sciences, another company focused on psychedelics. Through him, they met venture capitalist Peter Thiel. With funding from these three billionaires, Compass then also attracted money from family offices and hedge fund investors, particularly those whose families had experienced mental illness, gaining some $115mn in seed funding. The day after its oversubscribed IPO hit the Nasdaq in 2020, the company reached a market capitalisation of $1bn.

While Goldsmith was raising money, Malievskaia was running a small team recruiting clinical trial sites one by one. She says she still has “scar tissue” from the experience. While hospitals were keen, there were significant delays as many had to apply for licences to handle psychedelics for the first time. Then, Compass had to train therapists in how to guide patients on a hallucinogenic trip.

Maya Albert was not at death’s door when she signed up for the same psilocybin trial as Aly in San Diego. Years of therapy had helped stabilise her anorexia, but it still lived in her head, making her obsess about food and the way her body looked. “I had resigned to being that way forever and didn’t have any hope of getting better,” she recalls.

Albert was already working in psychedelics as a conference organiser when she heard about the trial. So she knew that preparation was key to being receptive to the experience. Early pioneers of psychedelics emphasised the importance of “set and setting” — mindset and environment. This was underlined in the 1960s and 1970s when psychedelics were administered in uncontrolled environments, sometimes even without people’s permission. Trial protocols now include therapy sessions before the dosing day to prepare for the experience and after to “integrate” it.

“Psychedelic medicine is not medicine like we currently understand it,” says Albert. “It’s not a pill that you take one day, and you’re better the next. You can’t extract the dosing from the work that needs to be done before and after.” Her first intention was to find “any sort” of hope. “There was no light at the end of the tunnel for me and my recovery . . . But I thought, at minimum, I could get hope that there might be a way to change in the future,” she says.

As well as blood tests, vital measurements and surveys, Albert was able to visit the room where her trip would take place in advance. The trial organisers do their best to transform clinical rooms into places of comfort, with soft lighting, flowers and a gentle soundtrack designed to accompany the experience. Participants can lie under a weighted blanket and wear an eye mask. Albert brought along an aromatherapy diffuser and a photo of her with a loved one.

Just after 8am, she took the capsule of psilocybin. Therapists are trained to ask participants to take a mindful breath and think about what brought them there. About 15 minutes later, Albert felt herself slipping under the covers into a lucid dream. “The most surprising thing at the beginning is that I didn’t feel like I fully lost control. I felt like I had agency over what I was experiencing,” she says. Two therapists were in the room in case she needed them but they rarely interact with patients, only sometimes offering reminders to let go or, if agreed in advance, holding the participant’s hand.

Her early hallucinations were dark, discomforting, shadowy figures. “I was so committed to whatever it was going to offer me that I just opened my arms to whatever it was. When I saw something I didn’t like, I made sure to look even longer. And it would just disappear. It felt like a skill I was practising over and over again,” she says.

At one point, she saw herself in a coffin, surrounded by nature and seeming to experience her own birth and her own death. Soon, it all became one and dissolved into the world. “I sat with that moment for however long it lasted and was as present as I could be and just experiencing the wonder and awe of it,” she recalls. While still on the trip, she realised this was a form of “ego death”, a term describing a transcendent loss of subjective self-identity.

After this turning point, she spent several hours floating in the “most profound bliss and euphoria” she has ever experienced. The whole session can last six to eight hours. She says she laughed with herself, accepted herself, loved herself. “When I finally woke up and looked next to my bed at that photo of myself and someone who I loved, I thought ‘Oh that’s a nice photo, who’s that girl?’. I really did not recognise myself,” she says.

The days after were incredible. “I would live there forever if I could,” she says. The therapy sessions to “integrate” the experience were essential. “Nothing about my journey had anything to do with body or food. It was way beyond that.” She felt like she was handed a “tabula rasa, this blank slate of possibility”, cut off from her eating disorder. “OK, now, you have a fresh start . . . Do you want to go back and live that way? Do you want to let that control you?”

Stephanie Knatz Peck is the clinical psychologist at the University of California San Diego who ran the trial, a small independent study using Compass’s synthetic psilocybin. She believes integration therapy is vital. “If there is, in fact, this window of neuroplasticity that opens up, we really want people to leverage that for behaviour change,” she says.

Scientists don’t yet know exactly why this window appears to open, but Knatz Peck says there is significant evidence that anorexia is linked to serotonin disturbances in the brain and that psilocybin activates a serotonin receptor. MRI scans of people taking psilocybin show activity is spread far further around the brain, with more connections between networks and less activity on the well-trodden neural pathways, leading to a broader experience of consciousness.


The week after Aly’s treatment in 2021, she tried to stop herself eating — and failed. ‘I remember trying to restrict just to see: is this for real? And after just like day one, I was like, “This is so dumb. Why, why would I ever do this again?”’ © Jules Julien
One of the big challenges is trying to understand who responds to the treatment and who does not. Knatz Peck says those who were treated successfully in her trial either had trauma memories emerge during the session or, like Albert, experienced a loss of self. Separating from your eating disorder also appears significant. On her trip, Aly saw her anorexia as a skeleton, with red eyes. All the organs where she was suffering glowed red inside. “I think it was like the first time I’ve seen that like outside of myself or that I was able to be like, ‘Oh, this is not my identity. This is a totally separate thing,’” she says.

Even though not everyone improved as considerably as Aly did after the dose, the majority described it as among the most meaningful experiences of their life. In the three months the study ran, it did not show an impact on weight itself, although participants did have to be of a minimum weight — significantly above that of an inpatient with anorexia — in order to take part. (Doctors in charge of the trial believe that over time they will be able to treat people who weigh less.) Some participants suffered headaches or fatigue but no serious side effects.

In November 2021, Compass published its initial results from the study on people with treatment-resistant depression. A single dose of psilocybin, combined with therapy, was shown to have a significant effect in the short term, improving depression scores for 37 per cent of patients three weeks after the trial, with 29 per cent in remission.

James Rucker, a consultant psychiatrist and the principal investigator on the trial at King’s College Hospital, felt the results were “amazing”. The fact that the study didn’t show a runaway success with a population that other drugs had failed to treat was reassuring to him because it was credible. “There’s so much magic ascribed to psychedelics,” he says, “and it’s rubbish. And it’s dangerous, because it creates huge hype and expectation and then huge disappointment.” Desperate patients fill his email inbox asking about psychedelics every day. “How would you feel if you were given the ‘miracle cure’ for your depression, and it didn’t work?” he says. “That’s the danger.”

Others were clearly disappointed. Compass’s stock price fell 28 per cent in a week. Some investors may have had too-high expectations. Others were spooked by safety concerns because some participants experienced suicidal behaviours or suicidal ideation after the treatment. About 14 per cent in the highest dose group saw a worsening of suicidal state, as did 17 per cent in the dose below and 9 per cent at the lowest dose. Andrew McIntosh, a professor of psychiatry at the University of Edinburgh who has no relationship with Compass, said the results were “concerning”, even with small numbers, because you don’t want to make a condition worse with psychiatric treatment.

The results also showed that for many participants the effect of the drug waned over time. By 12 weeks the remission figure had fallen from 29 to just 20 per cent. McIntosh said it was early to draw conclusions but that even if future trials showed only one-fifth of people benefited, the treatment would still be worth having. “Treatment-resistant depression is a pretty awful disease, it shortens lifespans, there’s a great deal of suffering and suicide,” he said. He believes the study was probably “the most convincing evidence so far” that psilocybin has promise for people with the condition.

Compass says it is looking at the effects of a second dose as part of its phase 3 trial, though the idea of repeated treatments raises other questions. Ravi Das, an associate professor in psychology at University College London who is also independent from Compass, said repeated dosing may be less practical. “Clinical psychologists are already up to their eyeballs in workload.”

If the phase 3 results show similar promise, the company hopes it could bag the first approval of a hallucinogenic psychedelic, either from the EMA or the FDA. Recently, the US regulator has shown it is open to considering versions of drugs better-known for their recreational properties, approving Johnson & Johnson’s drug based on ketamine for treatment-resistant depression in 2020. The Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, a US-based public benefit corporation, started its clinical research programme for MDMA in 2004. Now armed with positive results trialling the drug with therapy for PTSD, it expects to apply for approval soon.

“What the regulator has demonstrated is that there are no ideological, political, spiritual or religious barriers to this,” Malievskaia says.

Debra Safer, co-director of the Stanford Adult eating and weight disorders programme, who was not involved in the trial, said that the long list of people it excludes — including people with a history of psychosis or psychosis in an immediate family member — shows Compass is being careful. If it works, she says, psilocybin therapy would be “amazing”. But she has a list of challenges: keeping anorexic patients from dropping out of the study, showing a sustained impact over a longer period of time and, importantly, proving a direct impact on weight. “Ultimately, I think we are interested in weight and does weight go up? We believe food is medicine,” she says.

How Compass will fare until then is an open question. Since the IPO in 2020, its share price has fallen 51 per cent, underperforming the broader biotech sector, as investors have turned on riskier companies without revenue. The stock battering was not the first bout of controversy in the company’s short history. Its switch from being a non-profit disappointed some of the researchers that the founders had initially partnered with and some in the psychedelic community, especially after Compass successfully applied for patents on its synthetic version of a substance that had been used so freely for decades. When I put this criticism to the company, a spokesperson responded that it believes the therapy should be widely accessible to patients if approved, and that this is only possible through the well-established drug development model.

To navigate the pharmaceutical and regulatory landscape, Compass has recruited Kabir Nath, a new chief executive with a background at a large drugmaker, the Japanese company Otsuka. Nath, who took the reins of the 160-person start-up last year, first encountered Compass just before his former employer invested in its series B round in April 2020.

In a meeting room over a darkening Soho street, Nath says the company is beginning to attract investors who had been wary about psychedelics: long-term healthcare specialists. “Some of those people who have perhaps stood back until now are starting to come in and understand that the opportunity and the promise is here,” he says. He is already talking to the healthcare providers and insurers that will eventually pay for an approved treatment about how to deliver it.

Charles Duncan, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, says institutional investors are interested, but so far only “very casually”. The big change, he believes, is that a couple of years ago the market was dominated by short-term investors. Now, the field has narrowed from about 30 companies to a few with solid prospects such as Compass. Duncan says anorexia could be even more important for Compass than treatment-resistant depression, where there is more competition. “Anorexia could be a really interesting programme going forward, in part because I haven’t heard of any other company talking about it,” he says.

But there are still unanswered questions: can Compass train enough therapists to supervise such long sessions? Will patients only need a single dose or a series of sessions? And how will doctors distinguish who will benefit and who will not?

Malievskaia and Goldsmith know the road to improving mental health is never smooth. Their son is now grown up and mostly recovered. “It’s not the story of a boy who was failed by traditional psychopharmacology, took mushrooms, got better the next day and then the parents set up a mushroom company,” Malievskaia says. “It’s a journey. It’s a path. There are ups and downs. We’re talking about serious mental illness and there are no magic solutions.”

The week after Aly’s treatment in 2021, she tried to stop herself eating — and failed. “I remember trying to restrict just to see: is this for real? And after just like day one, I was like, ‘This is so dumb. Why, why would I ever do this again?’ And I remember being like, ‘Oh my god, it’s really gone,’” she says.

Previously a vegan, she’s enjoyed trying new foods, especially smoked barbecue meats. But mostly she’s relieved that she doesn’t even think about food or her body anymore. She has moved in with her girlfriend, who she describes as the first partner she’s had who doesn’t encourage her eating disorder. Having left school at 18, she was scared her anorexia had damaged her brain’s ability to learn. But she recently completed a course to become an emergency medical technician.

Psilocybin provided Aly with hope. Psychedelics could eventually do that for millions. To do so, scientists need to further investigate the mechanism behind how a break with reality can transform people’s relationship with the real world. Regulators must resist the hype and only approve drugs with robust trial results. And healthcare systems will have to invest in the therapists crucial to making the drugs effective and safe.

Aly is now fighting forest fires in Northern California. “I want to do something that gives me purpose and that I can work outside and do a really physical job, because it is so opposite to the years I spent just not being able to get out of bed,” she says. “I don’t think anyone in my life thought it was possible because everyone was just waiting for me to die.”

FT : Relentless rise in carbon emissions tempered by renewable energy surge

Relentless rise in carbon emissions tempered by renewable energy surge
The IEA said Europe benefited from power-saving measures caused by the fall in gas supplies from Russia

Carbon dioxide emissions from energy hit a global record high last year, but rose more slowly than expected thanks to rapid growth in renewable energy as a result of the energy crisis caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The record 36.8bn tonnes of carbon emissions in 2022 was a rise of just under 1 per cent, the International Energy Agency said in its latest report. This compares with a rise of 6 per cent the previous year following a rebound in economic activity after coronavirus pandemic lockdowns eased.

In Europe, carbon emissions fell by 2.5 per cent in 2022. The IEA said Europe benefited from record levels of renewable energy and power-saving measures caused by the fall in gas supplies from Russia, helped by the second-warmest start to winter in the last 30 years.

“Without clean energy, the growth in [carbon] emissions would have been nearly three times as high,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

Renewable energy sources met 90 per cent of last year’s growth in electricity generation, the IEA said, as wind and solar power set new records.

Despite this progress, Birol warned that the continued rise in carbon emissions was “hindering efforts to meet the world’s climate targets”. Countries around the world have committed to limit global temperature rises to well below 2C and ideally 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, under the Paris accord. Temperatures have already risen at least 1.1C.

The IEA report found that emissions from coal were up by 1.6 per cent, while emissions from oil increased by 2.5 per cent. About half of the increase in oil-related emissions came from aviation as consumers returned to flying after the pandemic.

Emissions from natural gas fell by 1.6 per cent globally, and by 13.5 per cent in Europe, as supplies tightened following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

As the world’s biggest polluter annually, China’s emissions were largely flat because of the country’s strict Covid-19 measures, declining construction activity and reductions in industrial and transport emissions.

But in the US, the second-biggest emitter and the most polluting on a historical basis, the rise in emissions was 0.8 per cent — perversely as a consequence of the country grappling with extreme temperatures that are believed by scientists to be exacerbated by climate change.

Regionally, the largest increase in emissions came from Asia, excluding China, where the number was 4.3 per cent.

The IEA also reported recently that the global fossil fuel industry emissions of methane increased to a near record in 2022.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 2nd of March 2023

>>> Up
* Adevinta Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 105 kroner
* Alcon Raised to Hold at SocGen
* Ambu Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 140 kroner
* FRoSTA Raised to Hold at GSC Research; PT 70 euros
* Solaria Energia Raised to Hold at Renta 4; PT 18 euros
* Wolters Kluwer Raised to Neutral at Exane; PT 105 euros

>>> Down
* Babcock Cut to Neutral at Citi on Risks From Legacy Issues
* Efecte Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 12 euros
* Persimmon Cut to Reduce at Numis; PT 1,185 pence

>>> Initiation
* Boliden Rated New Underperform at Credit Suisse; PT 385 kronor
* D'Ieteren Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 220 euros
* Norsk Hydro Rated New Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT 86 kroner
* Spie Reinstated Strong Buy at Portzamparc; PT 31.50 euros
* Tomra Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 205 kroner

>>> Call
* Evonik Earnings Miss Expectations, Demand Seen Slow: Jefferies
* Morgan Stanley Strategists Say Europe Firms Post Healthy Results
* Norsk Hydro Started Outperform and Preferred to Boliden at CS
* Travis Perkins Lacks Catalysts, Downgraded to Hold at Peel Hunt
* VAT Group’s Lower Guidance Should Not Surprise, Analysts Say
* Workday Cut to Hold at SocGen on Valuation Following Results

>>> What to look at today - 2nd of March 2023

US futures declined along with Asian equities Thursday as Treasury yields continued to edge higher following another round of hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials. Euro Stoxx 50 contracts were little changed ahead of European inflation data due later in the day.  The rate on benchmark 10-year US government debt consolidated above 4% during Asian trading, weighing on shares from Tokyo to Hong Kong and Mumbai. Hong Kong-listed Chinese technology companies were among the hardest hit, sliding more than 1.5%, after a sharp rally on Wednesday. Swaps markets are now pricing in a peak US policy rate of 5.5% in September, with some traders betting it may reach 6%. That’s damping appetite for risk taking in markets around the world, even as China offers hope with its economy recovering markedly after Beijing abandoned its Covid-zero policy. China’s successful reopening is a much-needed bright spot for investors but in terms of inflation “adds cyclical upside pressure because of the sheer amount of demand” that it brings, especially in commodities, Charu Chanana, senior markets strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, said on Bloomberg Television. The dollar rose against its Group-of-10 counterparts, with the currencies of raw materials and energy exporters like Australia, New Zealand and Norway showing the biggest falls. The offshore yuan weakened after being one of the most notable gainers versus the dollar Wednesday, when it rallied more than 1% in its largest advance since November.  The trigger for higher yields was Fed officials on Wednesday reinforcing their hawkish stance. Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic called for continued rate hikes to above 5% to make sure inflation doesn’t pick up again. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, meanwhile, said he’s concerned that there isn’t much of an indication that the central bank’s rate hikes are slowing down the services sector.  Oil was slightly lower after a two-day gain as traders weighed the potential revival in Chinese demand against concerns over tighter US monetary policy. Gold was down marginally after a three-day advance. US After Hours CRM +14.9% jumps following earnings; OKTA +12.8%, AEO +6.8% also higher on earnings; FNKO -26.8%, AVID -16%, BOX -9.3%, AAN -8%, SNOW -6.9% lower on earnings; SI -32.5% down sharply on going concern.

Nikkei -0,06% Hang Seng -0,87% CSI -0,29% Shanghai -0,10% Shenzen -0,60%

Eur$ 1,0639 CNH 6,9085 CNY 6,9008 JPY 136,68 GBP 1,1987 CHF 0,9427 RUB 75,3025 TRY 18,8776 WTI$ 77,51 -0,20% Gold 1,832,50 -0,22% BTC 23,461-0,40% ETH 1,647,50

S&P -0,48% Nasdaq -0,56% EuroStoxx -0,19% FTSE +0,18% Dax _0,21% SMI +0,08%

Macro :
- FTSE 100 Index to Remain Unchanged After Final Quarterly Review
- EU Seeks to Salvage Combustion-Engine Ban After Germany Balks
- Morgan Stanley Strategists Say Europe Firms Post Healthy Results
- Stoxx 600 Adds Embracer, Sydbank, BPER Banca, Technip Energies

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : SpaceX Launches Latest International Crew to Space Station
- ARL GY : Aareal Bank 2023 Net Interest Income Forecast Beats Estimates
- ABI BB : AB InBev Earnings Gain Helped by Budweiser Maker’s Premium Beers
- ARGX BB : Argenx 4Q Vyvgart Sales Beats Estimates
- AZE BB : Azelis FY Revenue Meets Estimates (1)
- BFSA GY : Befesa FY Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
- CLN SW : Clariant Sees 2023 Sales About CHF5B, Est. CHF5.04B
- COTN SW : Comet FY Dividend per Share CHF3.70 Vs. CHF3.50 Y/y
- 1COV GY : Covestro 1Q Ebitda Forecast Misses Estimates
- DUELL FH : Duell Offering of 5.09m Shares Prices at EU1.70/Share
- EDP PL : EDP FY Net Income Misses Estimates
- EDP PL : EDP Offers to Buy EDP Brasil Stock It Doesn’t Own for R$24/Shr
- EQS GY : Semperit Plans up to €5/Share Dividend After Medical Unit Sale
- EQT SS : *EQT IS SAID TO PAY $15 PER SHARE FOR RADIUS GLOBAL
- EVK GY : Evonik Sees 2023 Adjusted Ebitda EU2.1B to EU2.4B, Est. EU2.25B
- FORN SW : Forbo FY Ebit Misses Estimates
- FUTR LN : Future Plc Sinks After Losing Clean Sweep of Buy Ratings
- GALP PL : Galp Says Brazil Tax May Have €50m Impact on Petrogal Brasil
- GFT GY : GFT Sees 2023 Pretax Profit EU72M
- HLAG GY : Hapag-Lloyd FY Dividend per Share Beats Estimates
- HEX NO : Hexagon Purus Completes Offering, Raises About NOK1.3b
- HYVE LN : Hyve Shareholders Say Providence Bid Isn’t Fairly Valued: FT
- ICAD FP : Icade Appoints Nicolas Joly as CEO
- IFCN SW : Inficon FY Dividend per Share CHF18 Vs. CHF21 Y/y
- KARN SW : Kardex FY Ebit Beats Estimates
- KGX GY : Kion Sees 2023 Adjusted Ebit at Least EU550M, Est. EU500.7M
- LSEG LN : LSE FY Fixed Income, Derivatives & Other Revenue Meets Estimates
- MT IM : Maire Tecnimont FY Net Income Meets Estimates
- MRK GY : Merck KGaA 4Q Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates (1)
- MBTN SW : Meyer Burger Sees Positive Group Result on 2023 Ebitda
- MITRA BB : Mithra Says Preclinical Data Confirm CSF-1R Inhibitors Potential
- BMPS IM : Monte De Paschi to Join Italy’s FTSE MIB, Buzzi Unicem to Leave
- NOVOB DC : Diabetes Price Pressure a Constant as Payors Pit Lilly vs. Novo
- PSH NA : Pershing Square Holdings Feb. Net Performance -4.4%
- PRX NA : Prosus Plans OLX Autos Exit to Help Profitability of Classifieds
- PURP LN : Purplebricks Founder Bruce Exploring Takeover of Firm: Sky
- RADI US : *EQT IS SAID TO PAY $15 PER SHARE FOR RADIUS GLOBAL
- ROCKB DC : Rockwool Says Its Products Aren’t on 2014 Russia Sanctions List
- RBREW DC : Royal Unibrew's Profit Needs Consumers Lifting Volume: React
- SAN FP : Sanofi, Novo Nordisk Should Also Cut Insulin Price: Sen. Sanders
- SCR FP : Scor 4Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- SMCP FP : SMCP FY Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
- SUBC NO : Subsea 7 4Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- SWON SW : SoftwareONE Sees 2023 Adjusted Ebitda Margin 24% to 25%
- ALTER FP : Theradiag Names Policard as Chairman, Davière as CEO
- TE FP : Technip Energies FY Adjusted Recurring Ebit Beats Estimates
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia to Reorganize Enterprise Unit Ahead of Spinoff
- URW NA : Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield Seeks Buyers for San Diego Property
- BZU UM : Monte De Paschi to Join Italy’s FTSE MIB, Buzzi Unicem to Leave
- UCG IM : UniCredit Raises CEO Orcel Target Pay by 30% After Strong Year
- VACN SW : VAT FY Net Sales Matches Estimates
- VK FP : Vallourec 4Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- VLA FP : Valneva Says Covid-19 Vaccine Shelf Life Extended to 21 Months
- VIE FP : Veolia Lifts Dividend by 12% as Profit Jumps on Rising Demand
- VOW GY : VW to Combine Volkswagen Financial Services and Volkswagen Bank
- VZN SW : VZ Holding FY Operating Revenue CHF413.9M Vs. CHF388.9M Y/y
- ZEAL DC : Zealand Pharma FY Revenue Misses Estimates

>>> US Close Dow +0,02% S&P -0,47% Nasdaq -0,66%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The new month started on a mostly downbeat note. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed with decent losses, weighed down by weakness in the mega cap space, while the Dow managed a slim gain. Downside momentum was somewhat limited, though, thanks to the S&P 500 finding support at its 200-day moving average (3,940) twice today.

Rising market rates were a big headwind for stocks today. The 10-yr note yield reached 4.00% earlier and settled up eight basis points at 3.99%. The 2-yr note yield rose ten basis points to 4.90%. These moves were mostly in response to the ISM Manufacturing Index this morning and comments from Fed officials. 

Briefly, the ISM Manufacturing Index edged higher to 47.7% from 47.4% in January. A reading below 50% is indicative of a general contraction in manufacturing activity. The sticking point is that the Prices Index rose to 51.3% from 44.5%, marking the first price increase in four months. This price data, we would add, followed a higher-than-expected February CPI reading for Germany. 

In addition, rate hike concerns were stoked by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (2023 FOMC voter) saying he is leaning toward raising rates further and pushing up his own policy path forecast and Atlanta Fed President Bostic (2024 FOMC voter) saying he thinks the Fed should get to 5.00-5.25% and hold there well into 2024, according to CNBC.

Negative reactions to disappointing earnings and/or guidance from the likes of Lowe's (LOW 194.31, -11.44, -5.6%), Rivian (RIVN 15.76, -3.54, -18.3%), Kohl's (KSS 27.51, -0.53, -1.9%), and Agilent Technologies (A 137.51, -4.46, -3.1%) acted as another headwind for stocks today.

Most of the S&P 500 sectors registered losses with the interest rate sensitive real estate (-1.5%) and utilities (-1.7%) sectors suffering the steepest declines. On the flip side, the energy (+1.9%), materials (+0.7%), and industrials (+0.4%) sectors were the lone standouts in positive territory, having been enthused somewhat by China reporting stronger-than-expected Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing readings for February.

Notably, small and mid cap stocks fared better than their larger peers today. The Russell 2000 (+0.1%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.3%) were among the best performers for the major indices. 

  • Nasdaq Composite: +8.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +7.8% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +7.3% YTD
  • S&P 500: +2.9% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.5% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

  • Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -5.7%; Prior -13.3%
  • February IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI - Final 47.3; Prior 47.8
  • February ISM Manufacturing Index 47.7% (consensus 47.8%); Prior 47.4%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing activity continued to contract in February, albeit at a slightly slower pace, yet it did so against a backdrop of prices increasing for the first time in four months in a move that will keep the Fed with a tightening bias.
  • January Construction Spending -0.1% (consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to -0.7% from -0.4%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that new single family construction continued to decline (-1.7%), clipped by higher interest rates that are making construction projects more expensive to finance at a time when broader economic activity is slowing due in part to the higher interest rates.

Ahead of tomorrow's open, Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), Best Buy (BBY), Big Lots (BIG), Burlington Stores (BURL), Kroger (KR), and Macy's (M) headline the earnings reports. 

Looking ahead to Thursday, market participants will receive the following economic data:

  • 8:30 ET: Revised Q4 Productivity (consensus 2.5%; prior 3.0%) and Unit Labor Costs (consensus 1.4%; prior 1.1%), weekly Initial Claims (consensus 197,000; prior 192,000) and Continuing Claims (prior 1.654 mln)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -71 bcf)