>>> Weekend papers Summary

FINANCIAL TIMES
-Donald Trump will have to appear for sentencing in the New York "hush money" criminal case on January 10, just days before he is to start his second term in the White House. Justice Juan Merchan's has decided to hand Trump a figurative legal blow, and many expect a courtroom spectacle in lower Manhattan. Nevertheless, Trump will not be handed a jail sentence, and he will even be permitted to attend the sentencing hearing virtually, should he wish. Trump's transition team has complained that the sentencing timing violates the Supreme Court's immunity decision.
-Alcohol stocks on both sides of the Atlantic have fallen, with several brewery and distillery owners down over 2%. The likely reason is that US surgeon-general Vivek Murthy has recommended that alcoholic beverages should carry warning labels to increase awareness about their link to cancer. Alcohol consumption ranks behind tobacco and obesity as the third leading preventable cause of cancer in the USA. Murthy suggests Congress should authorize updated warning labels on beverages containing alcohol about the cancer risk. The advisory and recommendations are similar to public health efforts targeting the tobacco industry, which have led to a significant decline in smoking.
-Mike Johnson has been re-elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives after a slim majority was secured through a backroom deal with Republican rebels. This victory is a success for Donald Trump, who strongly endorsed Johnson for the top job in Congress's lower chamber and sees him as a reliable ally to implement his second term agenda. The vote ended with 218 in favor of Johnson, 215 for Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, and one vote for another candidate. Johnson stated that the first priority of the Republican-controlled House would be to protect US borders and provide resources for the Trump administration's crackdown on undocumented immigrants. He also vowed to extend tax cuts, protect American industry from one-sided trade deals, and boost US energy dominance.
-Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin has warned about the potential for resurgent US inflation following Donald Trump's presidency. Despite forecasting solid growth for the world's largest economy, Barkin expects more risk on the inflation side. He warned that wage and product costs could see pressure, and that price-setters might have more courage to pass costs along. Barkin's comments come just weeks before Trump returns to the US presidency with a pledge to raise tariffs, slash taxes and regulation, crack down on immigration, and start mass deportations. Some economists have warned that the policy agenda could spark a new bout of inflation in the US.
-Broadway is recovering from a challenging 2023-24 season, with attendances and grosses rising by 16% in the first half of the new season. Playbill reports that Broadway had the highest grossing Christmas week since 2018, indicating a potential recovery similar to London's. Producers note that Broadway has new commercial successes, including Wicked, The Lion King, and Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, which are all guaranteed to generate revenue.
-Home heating fuel prices have increased, reacting to a polar vortex that is affecting the United States and, which has revived volatility in markets. Natural gas prices have risen by 4% and 14% in the past month, while heating oil futures have gained 5% in a week. The northern US may face its coldest January in over a decade, catching some traders off guard. About 47% of US households heat their homes with gas, while 40% use electricity.
-US President Joe Biden has stopped Japan’s Nippon Steel’s effort to acquire US Steel for $15B. The blocked deal has triggered a setback to Washington-Tokyo relations – Japan being the US’s closet ally in the Asia Pacific region. Biden ordered Nippon and US Steel to abandon the proposed transaction within 30 days. The two companies labelled the move a violation of due process and the law, and threatened legal action. A clause in the original agreement required Nippon to pay a $565M break-fee should the deal have been blocked. Biden's intervention reflects his presidency’s effort to favor American jobs at the expense of free trade.
-Stellantis's production in Italy fell by some 40% in 2024, the lowest level since the 1950s, according to trade union FIM-CISL. Stellantis, which was formed from the fusion of Fiat-Chrysler and PSA-Peugeot in 2021, made 475,090 vehicles in Italy last year, a significant drop from 2023's 750,000 units. Revenues were hit by weak demand, Chinese competition, and regulatory uncertainty around electric vehicles. CEO Carlos Tavares was dismissed las December and Chairman John Elkann is heading the search for a new leader who might be able to address production problems in Europe and the US.
-Lower interest rates, more inventory, and sales enticed consumers to buy, and both General Motors and Ford announced their best year of US sales since the coronavirus outbreak shook the auto industry. In 2024, GM and Ford sold 2.7M and 2.1M cars respectively in the US, marking a 4% sales increase compared to 2023. Falling loan rates, better inventory, and a decrease in the uncertainty surrounding the US election that had kept buyers on the sidelines for months all contributed to a quickening pace of auto sales at the end of the year.

NEW YORK TIMES
-NY Judge Juan M. Merchan sustained President-elect Donald J. Trump's felony conviction even while stressing that the president-elect would be spared of any punishment. Merchan favored an unconditional discharge of Trump's sentence, a rare and lenient alternative to jail or probation. The judge set a sentencing date of Jan. 10 and ordered Trump to appear either in person or virtually. An unconditional discharge would reinforce Trump's felon status just days before his inauguration, while watering down the consequences for his crimes.
-Speaker Mike Johnson kept his job in a spectacular last-minute turnabout by putting down a revolt from conservatives who had first voted to stop his climb to the top of the House. Johnson secured re-election to the position on Friday. President-elect Donald J. Trump, interrupted a golf game to call holdouts, helped Mr. Johnson narrowly muster the majority he needed to win re-election on the first ballot. Because of this, the speaker was spared the embarrassment of a multi-day slog of unsuccessful votes, similar to what his predecessor Kevin McCarthy endured before ultraconservatives gave in and elected him two years ago.
-House Republicans, including Louisiana's Mike Johnson, have pledged to prioritize restoring America's energy dominance. Johnson announced that the Republican Congress would expand oil and gas drilling, end federal support for electric vehicles, and promote the export of American gas. He emphasized the need to stop attacks on liquefied natural gas, pass legislation to eliminate the Green New Deal, expedite new drilling permits, save jobs for auto manufacturers, and end ridiculous EV mandates. The Green New Deal was a proposed legislation that Congress never passed but Republicans have seized on as shorthand for policies to help the US transition away from fossil fuels.
-Police have shared notes from a phone used by Master Sgt. Matthew Livelsberger, who fatally shot himself inside a Tesla Cybertruck outside a Trump hotel in Las Vegas. Livelsberger, a veteran of several combat tours, had post-traumatic stress disorder and had written in a notes app on his phone that the country was "headed toward collapse." Authorities said that Livelsberger praised President-elect Donald J. Trump. On New Year's Day, he pulled the Tesla into the driveway of the hotel and fatally shot himself before the vehicle went up in flames, injuring seven bystanders and stirring alarm far beyond Las Vegas.
-Starting on January 5, most drivers entering Manhattan south of 60th Street during peak travel times will be charged a $9 fee. New Jersey's bid to halt the congestion pricing program has been rejected by a federal judge. The city's tolling program has been the subject of at least 10 legal challenges and repeated delays. New York officials plan to proceed with the long-planned congestion pricing program, stating that the time for debating and lawsuits is over and it's time to work on making the new initiative a success for New York.
-The FBI has confirmed that the man who killed 14 people in New Orleans on New Year's Day had planned to use a transmitter to detonate two explosives he had placed near the site of the attack. The attacker, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, was inspired by the Islamic State extremist group and had placed both devices on Bourbon Street, the famous stretch of bars and revelry that turned into a scene of devastation on Wednesday morning. The transmitter and two guns were recovered from the truck driven by Jabbar, who was killed by the police moments after his attack. It is unclear whether the devices failed to detonate because Jabbar had not activated the transmitter or because it did not work. Jabbar, 42, had rented the truck and driven it from Houston to New Orleans earlier on New Year's Eve.
-France is grappling with a surge in domestic drug trade and violence, particularly in small and medium-sized cities like Morlaix. The trade, which has a population of 15,000, has led to increased insecurity in previously safe areas. Mayor Jean-Paul Vermot warns of a "new thing" - a tide of cocaine. Despite the challenges, Morlaix's charms, such as its marina, City Hall balcony, and 18th-century tobacco factory, remain a source of pride.
-Japan's companies are continuing to seek American deals for growth, despite President Biden's rejection of Nippon Steel's attempt to buy US Steel. Japanese officials have warned that quashing the merger would hinder economic ties between the allies. Japan's largest business lobby, Keidanren, stated that America's investment attractiveness would be tarnished if Nippon Steel's $15B bid for US Steel was blocked. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan reached out to Biden asking him to approve the deal during a critical juncture. In the United States, both Biden and his opponent, Donald J. Trump, came out against the Japanese acquisition of US Steel during a heated presidential campaign. Biden stopped the merger from going forward, arguing that foreign control of US Steel would jeopardize America's national security.
-The United States could join a small group of nations that advise drinkers of the risk of cancer if it follows the surgeon general's call for cancer warning labels on alcohol. The World Health Organization concluded in 1988 that alcohol is carcinogenic to humans and that no safe amount of alcohol consumption for cancers can be established. However, a 2020 study found that only a quarter of the world's countries require any health warnings on alcohol, with their language generally vague and cancer warnings being rare. The research found that greater alcohol consumption was associated with higher risks of cancer. South Korea has only one label warning about liver cancer, and in 2016, the country mandated a group of labels for alcohol, some of which include warnings about liver cancer. Ireland has been on the forefront of other public health policies in the past, becoming the first country to ban smoking in indoor workplaces in 2004.
-Elon Musk has shifted his focus from promoting the AfD party in Germany to targeting Britain in a series of social media posts. He has revived questions about a child sex abuse scandal, vilified the prime minister, and defended a jailed far-right agitator. Musk demanded the release of a convicted criminal and far-right agitator, falsely accused Prime Minister Keir Starmer of failing to address child rapists during his time as head of public prosecutions. He also endorsed a post calling on King Charles III to dissolve Parliament and call elections to remove Britain's seven-month-old Labour government, a constitutional impossibility. The British government responded politely to Musk's trolling, despite mostly ignoring the trolling for months.
-Honduras's President Xiomara Castro has threatened to remove the US military from a base it built decades ago in the Central American country if President-elect Donald Trump conducts mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. This was the first concrete response by a leader in the region to Trump's plan to send back millions of Latin American citizens living in the US. Castro said that Honduras would have to consider a change in its policies of cooperation with the US, especially in the military arena, if faced with a hostile attitude of mass expulsion of its brothers.
-The State Department has informed Congress that it plans to approve $8B in purchases of US-made arms by Israel –using money provided by the US. This could be the final arms transfer by President Biden, as the rising death toll in Israel's war in Gaza has fueled growing opposition within his party to further weapons sales. The weapons package includes artillery shells, small-diameter bombs, missiles for fighter jets and helicopters, and GPS guidance systems for bombs. Much of the equipment would not be of immediate deployment; rather, it would feed a manufacturing pipeline, and delivery would take years.

NEW YORK POST
-Las Vegas ‘Cybertruck bomber’ Matthew Livelsberger left notes indicating that his suicide was not a terrorist attack but a way to "cleanse" his mind while blasting the "feckless leadership" of a United States "near collapse." Livelsberger, an active member of the Army's elite Special Forces, left behind two notes in a charred cellphone recovered inside the singed Tesla he rented that suggest his motive for detonating explosives as he "simultaneously" shot himself in front of the Trump International Hotel. In another letter recovered by police, Livelsberger implored fellow servicemembers, veterans, and all Americans to "WAKE UP" and criticize the "weak and feckless leadership who only serve to enrich themselves."
-Many, among the top, hedge funds experienced double-digit returns in 2024, thanks to messy markets, shifts in central bank policy, and a complex US presidential election race. Dan Loeb's New York-based Third Point posted a 28.7% return, Mets owner Steve Cohen's Point72 reported a 19% return, and the flagship Wellington fund from Ken Griffin's Citadel reported a 15.1% gain. All three multistrategy hedge funds exceeded the 10.7% average return this year through November, compared to 5.7% in the same period in 2023. Portfolio managers achieved over-50% gains in 2024, thanks to the "Trump Trade." Light Street Capital's technology-focused long/short fund saw a 59.4% increase, while long/short hedge funds had their best year since 2020. Discovery Capital's 52% increase was due to gains across equities, currencies, rates, and credit. Rokos Capital Management's 30.7% gain through Dec. 27 was also attributed to the Trump Trade. The S&P 500 saw a 23% gain, while D.E. Shaw's Composite fund and Oculus's 36% return were the best-ever annual performances. British hedge fund Marshall Wace also saw double-digit returns in several funds.

WSJ : Intel’s Problems Are Even Worse Than You’ve Heard

Intel’s Problems Are Even Worse Than You’ve Heard
There is fresh evidence the once-mighty innovator is losing market share in more areas

You may think you know how much Intel is struggling, but the reality is worse.

The once-mighty American innovation powerhouse is losing market share in multiple areas that are critical to its profitability. Its many competitors include not just the AI juggernaut Nvidia but smaller rivals and even previously stalwart allies like Microsoft.

One flashing warning sign: In the latest quarter reported by both companies, Intel’s perennial also-ran, AMD, actually eclipsed Intel’s revenue for chips that go into data centers. This is a stunning reversal: In 2022, Intel’s data-center revenue was three times that of AMD.

AMD and others are making huge inroads into Intel’s bread-and-butter business of making the world’s most cutting-edge and powerful general-purpose chips, known as CPUs, short for central processing units.

Even worse, more and more of the chips that go into data centers are GPUs, short for graphics processing units, and Intel has minuscule market share of these high-end chips. GPUs are used for training and delivering AI.

By focusing on the all-important metric of performance per unit of energy pumped into their chips, AMD went from almost no market share in servers to its current ascendant position, says AMD Chief Technology Officer Mark Papermaster. As data centers become ever more rapacious for energy, this emphasis on efficiency has become a key advantage for AMD.

Notably, Intel still has about 75% of the market for CPUs that go into data centers. The disconnect between that figure and the company’s share of revenue from selling a wider array of chips for data centers only serves to illustrate the core problem driving its reversal of fortunes.

This situation looks likely to get worse, and quickly. Many of the companies spending the most on building out new data centers are switching to chips that have nothing to do with Intel’s proprietary architecture, known as x86, and are instead using a combination of a competing architecture from ARM and their own custom chip designs.

A spokeswoman for Intel says the company is focused on simplifying and strengthening its product portfolio, and advancing its manufacturing and foundry capabilities while optimizing costs. Intel interim Co-Chief Executive Michelle Johnston Holthaus recently said that 2025 will be a “year of stabilization” for the company. Intel is currently seeking a permanent leader after its CEO Pat Gelsinger was pushed out last month.

The decades that developers spent writing software for Intel’s chips mean that Intel remains a giant, even as its market share has shrunk, and that legacy will limit how quickly Intel’s revenues can decline in the future. Analysts estimate Intel’s 2024 revenue was about $55 billion, just behind Nvidia’s approximately $60 billion. Intel still has the lion’s share of the market for desktop and notebook CPUs—around 76%, overall, according to Mercury Research.

AMD recently formed an alliance with Intel to collaborate on support and development of the x86 ecosystem that both companies make chips for. Papermaster says that his own company continues to invest in this ecosystem even as AMD also develops ARM-based chips for some applications, such as networking and embedded devices.

For a concrete example of Intel’s challenges, look at Amazon, the world’s biggest provider of cloud computing. More than half of the CPUs Amazon has installed in its data centers over the past two years were its own custom chips based on ARM’s architecture, Dave Brown, Amazon vice president of compute and networking services, said recently.

This displacement of Intel is being repeated all across the big providers and users of cloud computing services. Microsoft and Google have also built their own custom, ARM-based CPUs for their respective clouds. In every case, companies are moving in this direction because of the kind of customization, speed and efficiency that custom silicon allows.

All those companies are also making their own custom, ARM-based chips for AI workloads, an area where Intel has missed the boat almost entirely. Then there’s the 800-pound gorilla in AI, Nvidia. Many of Nvidia’s current-generation AI systems have Intel CPUs in them, but ARM-based chips are increasingly taking center stage in the company’s bleeding-edge hardware.

Intel’s repeated flubs in entering markets for new kinds of computing and new applications for chips are a textbook example of a big, profitable incumbent becoming a victim of the innovator’s dilemma, says Doug O’Laughlin, an industry analyst at SemiAnalysis, which recently published a blistering report on Intel. The innovator’s dilemma holds that powerful companies that are unwilling to cannibalize their biggest sources of revenue can be overtaken by upstarts that build competing products that start out small, but which can ultimately take over the market which the incumbent dominates—like the mobile chips which ARM started off with.

In 1988, former Intel CEO Andy Grove published a book called Only the Paranoid Survive, which highlighted the ways that companies have to be vigilant about what’s coming next, and be willing to disrupt themselves and pursue new technologies. What he intended as a warning to all companies has since become a prophecy foretelling Intel’s current difficulties.

“The book is literally about the importance of not missing strategic inflections, and then Intel proceeds to miss every single strategic inflection since,” says O’Laughlin.

Then there are laptops. After decades of trying to make it happen, 2024 was finally the year of credible, ARM-based laptops running Windows, thanks to efforts by Microsoft to make Windows on ARM work. The company convinced other companies to port their own software, and created tools that allow most existing programs to run on the new laptops, in emulation. Chips in these devices are made by Qualcomm, and benchmarks show that they can finally compete with Apple’s M-class mobile processors, which are also based on a combination of ARM technology and a great deal of custom chip design by Apple’s formidable in-house team.

Another bastion of market share and profits for Intel, the PC gaming market, is also showing early signs of erosion. Portable gaming systems like Valve’s Steam Deck and the Lenovo Legion Go, which can run even very demanding games, use processors from AMD. Future devices that will be part of the company’s plan to license its custom OS to other manufacturers may also use ARM-based ones.

Inherent in Intel’s woes is the way its vertically integrated structure, long an asset, now weighs on the company’s bottom line and ability to innovate. Unlike other companies that either design chips or manufacture them, Intel has stuck to a seemingly antiquated model of doing both.

Intel reported a $16 billion loss in its most recent quarter as it spent big to transform into a contract manufacturer—that is, a company that also manufactures chips for other companies, even competitors—and catch up to rival TSMC, which now produces the world’s most cutting-edge chips.

Analysts expect Intel to return to profitability in 2025, but it won’t be clear for years whether the company’s big manufacturing bets will ultimately pay off.

One of the big bets of Intel’s recently departed CEO Gelsinger, was Intel’s attempt to leapfrog TSMC in terms of chip technology. What it calls its “18A” tech could in theory allow its own chips, and those it makes for outsiders, to once again be the most cutting-edge, and the fastest, on the planet. The company has said it could regain that title by 2026. Intel recently announced it had signed a deal with Amazon to make custom chips for the company, using its 18A technology.

Even if Intel can once again lead the industry with its technology, the best case scenario for Intel’s own products is that it regains dominance in a market that continues to shrink—the x86 CPU one, says O’Laughlin. The removal of Gelsinger, who was betting on an all-in strategy for Intel to regain dominance both in the market for its own chips and in serving outside companies, suggests that Intel’s board agrees that the company can’t continue to count on being the best in the world at everything.

All of these challenges and conflicting priorities may push Intel to someday split in two, severing its product side from manufacturing. Intel INTC 1.68%increase; green up pointing triangle Co-CEO David Zinsner recently said that spinning off the company’s manufacturing side is an “open question.”

It’s also possible, in the worst case, that a fate even worse than being dismembered could be in store for Intel.

Rene Haas, CEO of ARM, recently observed that Intel has long been an innovation powerhouse, but that in chipmaking and design, there are countless companies that don’t innovate fast enough—and no longer exist.

TechCrunch : CES 2025: What to expect from the year’s first and biggest tech

CES 2025: What to expect from the year’s first and biggest tech show

CES 2025 officially kicks off in Las Vegas on the morning of Tuesday, January 7 and runs through the end of the day on January 10. The “official” dates are specific to when the floor of the Las Vegas Convention Center is open to attendees, and ultimately belie the show’s true duration. A pair of press days kick off Sunday with a few smaller events leading up to a scrum of press conferences on January 6.

Press conferences
We’ll be watching the following with a close eye here are TechCrunch:

AMD (Monday at 11 a.m. PT/2 p.m. ET): AMD has its work cut out for it at CES 2025. Competitor Nvidia has been sucking the oxygen out of every room it graces, as the chipmaker remains at the forefront of the AI boom. So, how will AMD compete with Nvidia’s reported RTX 5000 announcement? The company should show off its own next-gen GPU. As part of an ongoing rebrand, the RDNA 4 cards could arrive as either the RX 8000 or RX 9000 series.

Toyota (Monday at 4 p.m. PT/7 p.m ET): We expect Chairman Akio Toyoda to go all in on Woven City, the carmarker’s “living laboratory.” Our automotive editor Kirsten Korosec adds: “Details are slim about exactly what will be revealed. TechCrunch, which was at the initial announcement in 2020, will be watching to see how startups will be incorporated into Woven City and whether Toyota followed through on its plans to build a fully connected ecosystem powered by hydrogen fuel cells.”

Samsung (Monday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET): Samsung’s CES presser is always an odd duck. The Korean electronics giant generally keeps its powder dry when it comes to consumer electronics. After all, it’s expected to announce its latest flagship handset — the Galaxy S25 — toward the end of January. CES 2025 is going to continue the company’s tradition of TVs and appliances. There are also odds and ends like consumer robots that will most likely never see the light of day. Samsung has adopted the tagline “AI for All: Everyday, Everywhere” for the presentation.

Nvidia (Monday at 6:30 p.m. PT/9:30 p.m. ET): Nvidia will no doubt have the biggest CES 2025. After all, the company has pretty much the biggest everything nowadays. The chip giant is sporting a $3.4+ trillion market cap, due largely to its foundational position in the ongoing AI boom. Companies like OpenAI and Meta have purchased Nvidia processors by the boatload, and that’s unlikely to change in the new year. Founder and CEO Jensen Huang will help kick off CES 2025 “with his trademark leather jacket and an unwavering vision,” per Nvidia.

Notable keynotes from the following day include Twitter/X CEO Linda Yaccarino at 1:30 p.m. PT and Delta CEO Ed Bastian at 5 p.m. PT. The latter, notably, will take place at jam band hot spot the Sphere. Both will be available to stream at the official CES YouTube page.

Trends
The show’s hot topic will almost certainly be the only thing anyone in tech seems to talk about these days: AI. That’s nothing new for CES, of course. The category has been at the forefront for years now, with 2024’s show delivering some of the earliest generative-AI-powered consumer devices.

The Rabbit R1 was, perhaps, the most notable from last year’s show. The handheld generated a lot of buzz at the event, though as with other AI devices like Humane’s AI Pin, the product failed to live up to any expectations.

The subject won’t be limited to this manner of product, however. This year, any product that doesn’t mention AI in some form will be in a small minority. As mentioned above, Nvidia and AMD will be going head-to-head on the chip front. Nvidia will be a particular focus, as the chipmaker sets the stage pace for AI in 2025, including the release of the much anticipated GeForce RTX 50 GPU. The company will also touch on other key categories, including robotics and transportation.

AI will grace everything from cars to refrigerators this year. Some applications will prove genuinely useful, but many — if not most — will be a solution in search of a problem. This is always an important thing to keep in mind at an event like CES. It’s a huge show — last year’s event hosted 4,300 companies and nearly 140,000 attendees. There’s a lot of noise, and plenty of AI “applications” exist in attempt to rise above it.

Over the past decade, CES has transformed into one of the year’s top automotive shows. This has primarily been driven by automotive manufacturers’ bids to become bleeding-edge pioneers: Where better to showcase that than the year’s biggest consumer tech show? The 2021 addition of the Las Vegas Convention Center’s West Hall has facilitated that expansion.

Questions remain about whether CES can maintain its status as a major car show. Anecdotally, fewer large names appear to be participating in a meaningful way, including U.S. manufacturers like Ford. This is likely due, in part, to Detroit’s North American International Auto Show returning after a year off. That event is set to kick off January 10, overlapping with CES.

That’s not to say that there won’t be big headlines out of Vegas next week. In addition to Toyota’s participation, Sony’s press conference should once again feature Afeela, the company’s collaboration with Honda. Firms like Hyundai — which now owns Boston Dynamics — will likely showcase its focus on humanoid and other robotics.

Robotics have increasingly become a focus point for CES in recent years. I anticipate most transportation companies discussing the topic, from manufacturing to eVTOLs. The car industry has been the tip of the automated manufacturing spear for years, a fact accelerated by various employment and supply chain crises since the pandemic. Meanwhile, eVTOLs scored a major FAA win late last year.

CES continues to be a major launching pad for computer monitors. In fact, Samsung, ASUS, and MSI all announced the addition of “the world’s first” 27-inch 4K OLED monitors with 240Hz refresh rates. Smart appliances always get a lot of love at the show as well. LG has already revealed a bunch of news on that front. Samsung should follow suit at its press conferences on Monday.

After an extended lull, I anticipate a new wave of smart home devices. Between interoperability through the Matter standard, the explosion of generative AI platforms, and a second wind for smart assistants from Google, Amazon, and Apple, companies will be showcasing how these devices might excel where their predecessors failed.

After its latest hype cycle, extended reality still has a lot to prove. The Vision Pro hasn’t taken off as Apple had hoped, and competitors are struggling to compete with Meta’s ability to subsidize the cost of the Quest. Big names in the space like HTC and Magic Leap have largely pivoted to enterprise applications. Chipmakers like Qualcomm, however, are still very much focused on making a splash.

FT : Top Federal Reserve official warns of US inflation risk after Donald Trump

Top Federal Reserve official warns of US inflation risk after Donald Trump takes power
Tom Barkin’s comments come just weeks before the president-elect takes office with a vow to raise tariffs

A top Federal Reserve official has warned about the threat of resurgent US inflation after Donald Trump takes power, even as he forecast solid growth for the world’s largest economy overall.

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin said Americans were still spending freely, job losses remained low and US consumers were starting to push back against higher prices.

But while this combination could deliver “more upside than downside in terms of growth” in 2025, Barkin said he also expected “more risk on the inflation side”.

“Wage and product costs could see pressure,” he said in a speech on Friday. “If they do, given recent experience with inflation, price-setters might have more courage to pass costs along.”

Barkin’s comments come just weeks before Trump returns to the US presidency with a vow to raise tariffs and slash taxes and regulation. He has also pledged to crack down on immigration and start mass deportations.

Some economists have warned that the policy agenda could spark a new bout of inflation in the US.

Some Fed officials have begun accounting for Trump’s return in their projections, said the US central bank’s chair Jay Powell last month, by including “highly conditional estimates of economic effects of policies into their forecasts”.

Barkin stressed that uncertainty about what Trump would actually do was clouding the outlook, but assumed there could be “an extended period of back and forth” as the final plans were worked out.

If economic growth unexpectedly faltered, he said, “the damage could be lessened by the potential to walk some of those policies back”.

Speaking later on Friday, Fed governor Adriana Kugler underscored the “wide range of views” in the central bank about Trump’s policies, especially the impact of his tariffs, whether other countries would retaliate and how consumers would respond.

“We’re policymakers and we’re forward looking, so we consider a wide range of possible scenarios,” she said in an interview with CNBC.

Kugler backed the Fed lowering interest rates gradually in 2025 given recent data showing slower progress on pushing down inflation.

“We want to make sure that that is indeed just a bump and not something more permanent,” she said, echoing Barkin in describing the economy as in a “good place”.

The Fed last month lowered interest rates to 4.25-4.5 per cent, while officials significantly scaled back their estimates for rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 and sharply raised their projections for inflation.

Most officials now expect just a half-point worth of cuts this year, down from the full percentage point they pencilled in in September.

Barkin on Friday said the Fed was “well positioned regardless of how the economy develops”.

“Were employment to falter or inflation to re-emerge, we have the tools to respond,” he said.