FINANCIAL TIMES
-Donald Trump will have to appear for sentencing in the New York "hush money" criminal case on January 10, just days before he is to start his second term in the White House. Justice Juan Merchan's has decided to hand Trump a figurative legal blow, and many expect a courtroom spectacle in lower Manhattan. Nevertheless, Trump will not be handed a jail sentence, and he will even be permitted to attend the sentencing hearing virtually, should he wish. Trump's transition team has complained that the sentencing timing violates the Supreme Court's immunity decision.
-Alcohol stocks on both sides of the Atlantic have fallen, with several brewery and distillery owners down over 2%. The likely reason is that US surgeon-general Vivek Murthy has recommended that alcoholic beverages should carry warning labels to increase awareness about their link to cancer. Alcohol consumption ranks behind tobacco and obesity as the third leading preventable cause of cancer in the USA. Murthy suggests Congress should authorize updated warning labels on beverages containing alcohol about the cancer risk. The advisory and recommendations are similar to public health efforts targeting the tobacco industry, which have led to a significant decline in smoking.
-Mike Johnson has been re-elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives after a slim majority was secured through a backroom deal with Republican rebels. This victory is a success for Donald Trump, who strongly endorsed Johnson for the top job in Congress's lower chamber and sees him as a reliable ally to implement his second term agenda. The vote ended with 218 in favor of Johnson, 215 for Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, and one vote for another candidate. Johnson stated that the first priority of the Republican-controlled House would be to protect US borders and provide resources for the Trump administration's crackdown on undocumented immigrants. He also vowed to extend tax cuts, protect American industry from one-sided trade deals, and boost US energy dominance.
-Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin has warned about the potential for resurgent US inflation following Donald Trump's presidency. Despite forecasting solid growth for the world's largest economy, Barkin expects more risk on the inflation side. He warned that wage and product costs could see pressure, and that price-setters might have more courage to pass costs along. Barkin's comments come just weeks before Trump returns to the US presidency with a pledge to raise tariffs, slash taxes and regulation, crack down on immigration, and start mass deportations. Some economists have warned that the policy agenda could spark a new bout of inflation in the US.
-Broadway is recovering from a challenging 2023-24 season, with attendances and grosses rising by 16% in the first half of the new season. Playbill reports that Broadway had the highest grossing Christmas week since 2018, indicating a potential recovery similar to London's. Producers note that Broadway has new commercial successes, including Wicked, The Lion King, and Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, which are all guaranteed to generate revenue.
-Home heating fuel prices have increased, reacting to a polar vortex that is affecting the United States and, which has revived volatility in markets. Natural gas prices have risen by 4% and 14% in the past month, while heating oil futures have gained 5% in a week. The northern US may face its coldest January in over a decade, catching some traders off guard. About 47% of US households heat their homes with gas, while 40% use electricity.
-US President Joe Biden has stopped Japan’s Nippon Steel’s effort to acquire US Steel for $15B. The blocked deal has triggered a setback to Washington-Tokyo relations – Japan being the US’s closet ally in the Asia Pacific region. Biden ordered Nippon and US Steel to abandon the proposed transaction within 30 days. The two companies labelled the move a violation of due process and the law, and threatened legal action. A clause in the original agreement required Nippon to pay a $565M break-fee should the deal have been blocked. Biden's intervention reflects his presidency’s effort to favor American jobs at the expense of free trade.
-Stellantis's production in Italy fell by some 40% in 2024, the lowest level since the 1950s, according to trade union FIM-CISL. Stellantis, which was formed from the fusion of Fiat-Chrysler and PSA-Peugeot in 2021, made 475,090 vehicles in Italy last year, a significant drop from 2023's 750,000 units. Revenues were hit by weak demand, Chinese competition, and regulatory uncertainty around electric vehicles. CEO Carlos Tavares was dismissed las December and Chairman John Elkann is heading the search for a new leader who might be able to address production problems in Europe and the US.
-Lower interest rates, more inventory, and sales enticed consumers to buy, and both General Motors and Ford announced their best year of US sales since the coronavirus outbreak shook the auto industry. In 2024, GM and Ford sold 2.7M and 2.1M cars respectively in the US, marking a 4% sales increase compared to 2023. Falling loan rates, better inventory, and a decrease in the uncertainty surrounding the US election that had kept buyers on the sidelines for months all contributed to a quickening pace of auto sales at the end of the year.
NEW YORK TIMES
-NY Judge Juan M. Merchan sustained President-elect Donald J. Trump's felony conviction even while stressing that the president-elect would be spared of any punishment. Merchan favored an unconditional discharge of Trump's sentence, a rare and lenient alternative to jail or probation. The judge set a sentencing date of Jan. 10 and ordered Trump to appear either in person or virtually. An unconditional discharge would reinforce Trump's felon status just days before his inauguration, while watering down the consequences for his crimes.
-Speaker Mike Johnson kept his job in a spectacular last-minute turnabout by putting down a revolt from conservatives who had first voted to stop his climb to the top of the House. Johnson secured re-election to the position on Friday. President-elect Donald J. Trump, interrupted a golf game to call holdouts, helped Mr. Johnson narrowly muster the majority he needed to win re-election on the first ballot. Because of this, the speaker was spared the embarrassment of a multi-day slog of unsuccessful votes, similar to what his predecessor Kevin McCarthy endured before ultraconservatives gave in and elected him two years ago.
-House Republicans, including Louisiana's Mike Johnson, have pledged to prioritize restoring America's energy dominance. Johnson announced that the Republican Congress would expand oil and gas drilling, end federal support for electric vehicles, and promote the export of American gas. He emphasized the need to stop attacks on liquefied natural gas, pass legislation to eliminate the Green New Deal, expedite new drilling permits, save jobs for auto manufacturers, and end ridiculous EV mandates. The Green New Deal was a proposed legislation that Congress never passed but Republicans have seized on as shorthand for policies to help the US transition away from fossil fuels.
-Police have shared notes from a phone used by Master Sgt. Matthew Livelsberger, who fatally shot himself inside a Tesla Cybertruck outside a Trump hotel in Las Vegas. Livelsberger, a veteran of several combat tours, had post-traumatic stress disorder and had written in a notes app on his phone that the country was "headed toward collapse." Authorities said that Livelsberger praised President-elect Donald J. Trump. On New Year's Day, he pulled the Tesla into the driveway of the hotel and fatally shot himself before the vehicle went up in flames, injuring seven bystanders and stirring alarm far beyond Las Vegas.
-Starting on January 5, most drivers entering Manhattan south of 60th Street during peak travel times will be charged a $9 fee. New Jersey's bid to halt the congestion pricing program has been rejected by a federal judge. The city's tolling program has been the subject of at least 10 legal challenges and repeated delays. New York officials plan to proceed with the long-planned congestion pricing program, stating that the time for debating and lawsuits is over and it's time to work on making the new initiative a success for New York.
-The FBI has confirmed that the man who killed 14 people in New Orleans on New Year's Day had planned to use a transmitter to detonate two explosives he had placed near the site of the attack. The attacker, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, was inspired by the Islamic State extremist group and had placed both devices on Bourbon Street, the famous stretch of bars and revelry that turned into a scene of devastation on Wednesday morning. The transmitter and two guns were recovered from the truck driven by Jabbar, who was killed by the police moments after his attack. It is unclear whether the devices failed to detonate because Jabbar had not activated the transmitter or because it did not work. Jabbar, 42, had rented the truck and driven it from Houston to New Orleans earlier on New Year's Eve.
-France is grappling with a surge in domestic drug trade and violence, particularly in small and medium-sized cities like Morlaix. The trade, which has a population of 15,000, has led to increased insecurity in previously safe areas. Mayor Jean-Paul Vermot warns of a "new thing" - a tide of cocaine. Despite the challenges, Morlaix's charms, such as its marina, City Hall balcony, and 18th-century tobacco factory, remain a source of pride.
-Japan's companies are continuing to seek American deals for growth, despite President Biden's rejection of Nippon Steel's attempt to buy US Steel. Japanese officials have warned that quashing the merger would hinder economic ties between the allies. Japan's largest business lobby, Keidanren, stated that America's investment attractiveness would be tarnished if Nippon Steel's $15B bid for US Steel was blocked. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan reached out to Biden asking him to approve the deal during a critical juncture. In the United States, both Biden and his opponent, Donald J. Trump, came out against the Japanese acquisition of US Steel during a heated presidential campaign. Biden stopped the merger from going forward, arguing that foreign control of US Steel would jeopardize America's national security.
-The United States could join a small group of nations that advise drinkers of the risk of cancer if it follows the surgeon general's call for cancer warning labels on alcohol. The World Health Organization concluded in 1988 that alcohol is carcinogenic to humans and that no safe amount of alcohol consumption for cancers can be established. However, a 2020 study found that only a quarter of the world's countries require any health warnings on alcohol, with their language generally vague and cancer warnings being rare. The research found that greater alcohol consumption was associated with higher risks of cancer. South Korea has only one label warning about liver cancer, and in 2016, the country mandated a group of labels for alcohol, some of which include warnings about liver cancer. Ireland has been on the forefront of other public health policies in the past, becoming the first country to ban smoking in indoor workplaces in 2004.
-Elon Musk has shifted his focus from promoting the AfD party in Germany to targeting Britain in a series of social media posts. He has revived questions about a child sex abuse scandal, vilified the prime minister, and defended a jailed far-right agitator. Musk demanded the release of a convicted criminal and far-right agitator, falsely accused Prime Minister Keir Starmer of failing to address child rapists during his time as head of public prosecutions. He also endorsed a post calling on King Charles III to dissolve Parliament and call elections to remove Britain's seven-month-old Labour government, a constitutional impossibility. The British government responded politely to Musk's trolling, despite mostly ignoring the trolling for months.
-Honduras's President Xiomara Castro has threatened to remove the US military from a base it built decades ago in the Central American country if President-elect Donald Trump conducts mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. This was the first concrete response by a leader in the region to Trump's plan to send back millions of Latin American citizens living in the US. Castro said that Honduras would have to consider a change in its policies of cooperation with the US, especially in the military arena, if faced with a hostile attitude of mass expulsion of its brothers.
-The State Department has informed Congress that it plans to approve $8B in purchases of US-made arms by Israel –using money provided by the US. This could be the final arms transfer by President Biden, as the rising death toll in Israel's war in Gaza has fueled growing opposition within his party to further weapons sales. The weapons package includes artillery shells, small-diameter bombs, missiles for fighter jets and helicopters, and GPS guidance systems for bombs. Much of the equipment would not be of immediate deployment; rather, it would feed a manufacturing pipeline, and delivery would take years.
NEW YORK POST
-Las Vegas ‘Cybertruck bomber’ Matthew Livelsberger left notes indicating that his suicide was not a terrorist attack but a way to "cleanse" his mind while blasting the "feckless leadership" of a United States "near collapse." Livelsberger, an active member of the Army's elite Special Forces, left behind two notes in a charred cellphone recovered inside the singed Tesla he rented that suggest his motive for detonating explosives as he "simultaneously" shot himself in front of the Trump International Hotel. In another letter recovered by police, Livelsberger implored fellow servicemembers, veterans, and all Americans to "WAKE UP" and criticize the "weak and feckless leadership who only serve to enrich themselves."
-Many, among the top, hedge funds experienced double-digit returns in 2024, thanks to messy markets, shifts in central bank policy, and a complex US presidential election race. Dan Loeb's New York-based Third Point posted a 28.7% return, Mets owner Steve Cohen's Point72 reported a 19% return, and the flagship Wellington fund from Ken Griffin's Citadel reported a 15.1% gain. All three multistrategy hedge funds exceeded the 10.7% average return this year through November, compared to 5.7% in the same period in 2023. Portfolio managers achieved over-50% gains in 2024, thanks to the "Trump Trade." Light Street Capital's technology-focused long/short fund saw a 59.4% increase, while long/short hedge funds had their best year since 2020. Discovery Capital's 52% increase was due to gains across equities, currencies, rates, and credit. Rokos Capital Management's 30.7% gain through Dec. 27 was also attributed to the Trump Trade. The S&P 500 saw a 23% gain, while D.E. Shaw's Composite fund and Oculus's 36% return were the best-ever annual performances. British hedge fund Marshall Wace also saw double-digit returns in several funds.