TheChek News Flow

How Austria’s embrace of the far right could fracture the EU centre

Far right rises

Austria’s far-right Freedom party (FPÖ) appears to be on a glide path to the country’s chancellery, after negotiations among centrist parties collapsed and the moderate conservative People’s party (ÖVP) said it was open to coalition talks.

Any deal would mark the latest major victory for Europe’s far right, and put intense scrutiny on the stance of the EU’s centre-right towards engaging with extremist political groups.

Context: The Eurosceptic, pro-Russia, anti-immigration FPÖ won almost 29 per cent of September’s election, the highest share of the vote. Other parties, including the ÖVP, ruled out working with them and tried to cobble together an alternative coalition. Those talks collapsed on Saturday, with Karl Nehammer resigning as chancellor and stepping down as ÖVP leader.

Nehammer’s appointed replacement Christian Stocker abandoned the party’s cordon sanitaire approach, saying yesterday he was willing to negotiate with the FPÖ. FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl will meet Austria’s president Alexander Van der Bellen today.

Should Stocker strike a deal to become the far-right party’s junior partner, he would put one of the EU’s most uncompromising politicians at the helm of a national government and give him a seat around the EU’s 27-leader council.

Kickl has stark pro-Russian views, has embraced Covid-19 pandemic conspiracy theories and made unsavoury flirtations with Austria’s Nazi past.

Aside from significantly boosting efforts to overturn EU support to Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and existing immigration policies, it would also shine a spotlight on the centre-right European People’s party’s stance towards working with far-right parties.

The EPP, of which the ÖVP is a member, is the largest political group in the European parliament. Its member parties in Germany and Poland are battling far-right rivals in critical national elections this spring, and the party is already under heavy criticism from the assembly’s socialist and liberal groups for teaming up with hard-right groups to win votes.

Stocker may feel he has no choice. A survey released by Austrian tabloid Kronen Zeitung yesterday suggested that if a fresh snap election was called, the FPÖ could poll as high as 37 per cent, with the once dominant ÖVP falling to 21 per cent.

The case for European stocks

America’s S&P 500 is in the midst of an artificial intelligence-led boom. The “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks make up around one-third of the index, and their market capitalisation surpasses the entire value of the French, British and German bourses combined. Tech accounts for around just 8 per cent of the Stoxx Europe 600. AI euphoria has mostly passed the continent by.

But here’s something for perspective. Take Nvidia out of the S&P 500 and its total returns underperform the eurozone’s stock benchmark since this bull market began in late 2022.

There are a few interpretations of this datapoint. First, the S&P 500’s bull run mostly reflects a bet on AI (particularly Nvidia). Second, despite less tech exposure and a slow-growing economy, eurozone stocks have actually performed quite well. (The “S&P 499” still includes the six remaining “Magnificents”).

Charles Schwab’s chief global investment strategist, Jeffrey Kleintop, who flagged the above chart, also points out that the eurozone’s forward price-to-earnings ratio trades at a historic discount to the S&P 500, creating scope for European valuations to rise further.

Either way, European equities clearly have an underlying appeal. Where is it coming from? Goldman Sachs calls the continent’s dominant listed companies “the Granolas”. The acronym covers a diverse group of international companies spanning the pharmaceutical, consumer and health sectors. Together, they account for about one-fifth of the Stoxx 600.

Their performance against the Magnificent Seven has only recently diverged. The S&P 500 — which has around 70 per cent revenue exposure to the US — got a jolt following the election of Donald Trump.

They are no corporate pushovers. Novo Nordisk produces the in-demand Wegovy weight loss drug. LVMH is unrivalled among luxury brands. ASML is a global specialist in chip design. Nestlé is an international food staple.

They didn’t end 2024 well. Novo Nordisk’s latest obesity drug had “disappointing” test results, LVMH is suffering from weak Chinese demand and tough macroeconomic conditions are eating into Nestlé’s bottom line. Still, they are established, broad businesses with global exposure, low volatility and strong earnings — and some are now undervalued.

But Europe is more than the Granolas. Other companies are competitive across sectors, including in tech: Glencore, Siemens Energy, Airbus, Adidas, and Zeiss to name a few.

Small listed European businesses also tend to outperform their American counterparts. About 40 per cent of US small caps have negative earnings, compared with just over 10 per cent in Europe. The winner-takes-all dynamic may be stronger in the US, where tech behemoths suck capital and talent away from smaller companies. (This shouldn’t detract from genuine scaling challenges in Europe.)

European corporates also rely more on relationship-based, illiquid funding, unlike in the US, where listed equity dominates. That may encourage longer-term corporate governance in Europe, but also highlights the challenges of comparing US and European stock performance (the liquid equity flows aren’t in the same league).

Regarding the Trump tariff threat, it’s not all disaster for European companies either. Stoxx 600 groups derive only 40 per cent of their revenues from the continent. (For measure, Frankfurt’s Dax rose close to 20 per cent last year, outperforming European peers, despite Germany’s lacklustre economy.) A stronger dollar would also boost the earnings of European companies with sizeable US sales.

In sum, the stellar returns of the US stock market do not mean that European companies are no good. Rather, investors are willing to pay a premium to get exposure to AI (and Trump 2.0) — one that is looking harder to justify.

...but they are bifurcating based on tariff exposure

Other than the value proposition, there are catalysts that may lure more investors to European stocks: disappointing AI results, lower interest rates in Europe, Trump risks and further stimulus attempts in China.

And, even if its listed companies make a lot of their money outside Europe, there is a domestic upside, too.

First, the European economy has arguably shown agility and resilience in the face of unprecedented shocks, for instance by pivoting away from cheap Russian energy. Total manufacturing production is largely unchanged since the beginning of Trump’s first term (pharma and computer equipment have picked up the slack from car production). So-called peripheral European economies are also performing better.

Then there’s the longer-term domestic earnings and financing outlook. Though France and Germany face political instability, the rising urgency among policymakers to address the bloc’s subdued productivity growth is at least leading to a more encouraging discourse on reforms. There is growing consensus on the need for a true capital markets union to drive scale, deregulation to support innovation, a more pragmatic approach to free trade and China, a debt brake rethink in Germany, investment in digitalisation and lower energy costs. Mario Draghi’s report on European competitiveness has added momentum.

America’s financial, innovative and tech advantage is unquestionable. And whether Europe can actually execute important reforms is another matter. Yet the comparative surge of US stocks — given access to vast liquidity, tech expertise and exposure to AI — hides strengths in Europe’s listed businesses that I, at least, had under-appreciated. The continent has diverse, resilient and international companies with established use cases (while AI is still looking for one). That’s a solid platform for investors to exploit — and for policymakers to build on.

Christian Stocker signalled willingness to share power with Freedom party after resignation of Chancellor

The incoming leader of Austria’s centre right People’s party (ÖVP) has signalled his openness to sharing power with the far right, just a day after Chancellor Karl Nehammer resigned after failing to form a centrist governing coalition. 

Christian Stocker, the ÖVP’s general secretary, said on Sunday that he had been nominated as the party’s new head and was willing to enter negotiations with the anti-immigration, pro-Russian Freedom party (FPÖ), which emerged with the most seats in Austria’s national election in September.

Stocker’s statement came after Austria’s president Alexander Van der Bellen announced that he would meet FPÖ’s leader Herbert Kickl on Monday. Observers expect Van der Bellen to ask Kickl to form a coalition government, with centrist parties having previously ruled out such an alliance.

“If we get invited [by the FPÖ to hold coalition talks], we will seriously conduct these discussions like we did in the past with the other parties,” said Stocker, stressing that his party will “face its responsibilities”.

The ÖVP would be the junior partner in any tie-up with the far-right Freedom party, which won 28.8 per cent of the votes in the September election, compared to the ÖVP’s 26.3 per cent.

It was the first time the FPÖ, which has embraced increasingly hardline policies on immigration and the war in Ukraine under Kickl in recent years, had come first in a national election.

The failed negotiations deepened the political stasis in Austria at a time when its economy is at risk of shrinking for a third successive year in 2025. Vienna also faces the prospect of finding between €18bn and €24bn in budget cuts to repair its public finances, according to figures from the EU Commission.

One possibility to break any deadlock would be fresh elections, but that could further strengthen the hand of the FPÖ. One poll for tabloid Kronen Zeitung after Nehammer’s resignation suggested FPÖ would surge to 37 per cent in a snap vote, while the ÖVP would fall to 21 per cent.

Van der Bellen last year tasked the then ÖVP leader and chancellor Nehammer to form a government. Nehammer, who had vigorously ruled out any co-operation with Kickl, resigned late on Saturday after conceding that lengthy negotiations with the Social Democrats had hit a wall.

The 52-year-old, who has served as chancellor since 2021 when his predecessor Sebastian Kurz stood down amid a corruption investigation, had sought to strike a deal to form a centrist coalition with the Social Democrats and the small, liberal Neos party.

In a brief statement to journalists in Vienna on Sunday, the designated new ÖVP boss Stocker acknowledged that he had also been highly critical of the far-right FPÖ in the campaign. But he stressed that circumstances have changed and that all attempts to form a government without the FPÖ failed.

Filings show Kuiper initiative held meetings with MoD as tech group bids to rival Starlink

Amazon’s satellite operation, Project Kuiper, is pushing ahead with plans to launch a broadband service in the UK, as the tech group founded by Jeff Bezos attempts to take on Elon Musk’s Starlink. 

Kuiper is not yet operational, but has previously said it expects to begin deploying its satellite constellation in early 2025 and that it plans to roll out its broadband service later this year. It aims to compete with Starlink in low Earth orbit, a region of space where satellites can provide broadband to areas across the globe poorly served by traditional internet services.

Kuiper needs approval from the UK communications regulator Ofcom to provide broadband services across the country. A final decision on Kuiper’s licence is pending, after a consultation closed in October on Ofcom’s proposal to approve it.

Ofcom said on Sunday that it was “still considering the Amazon application for an Earth Station Network licence to allow Amazon Kuiper to operate terminals in the UK”.

Amazon has also been in talks with the UK Ministry of Defence. Filings show that last year Kuiper discussed a study it carried out on behalf of the UK Space Command. Blue Origin — Bezos’s separate space company — also had a “capability discussion”, according to transparency data published by the government department. The meetings were first reported by the Sunday Telegraph newspaper.

Amazon did not immediately respond to a request seeking comment. The MoD declined to comment.

Meanwhile, SpaceX’s Starlink is operational in more than 100 countries including the UK. A launch of satellite services by Amazon in the UK would follow an increase in demand for Musk’s broadband offering in the country. Ofcom in December reported that Starlink’s service had reached 87,000 connections across the UK — more than double the 42,000 the previous year — with the majority in rural areas.

Starlink’s satellite broadband capacity for the south-east of the country has also sold out. Its website shows it has a waiting list for new connections in a region including London, and stretching from Milton Keynes to Hastings and Andover to Canterbury.

SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request seeking comment.

In its game of catch-up with Starlink, Kuiper must first secure Ofcom’s approval for a licence for certain band frequencies that would enable the delivery of broadband from a constellation of satellites in low Earth orbit.

Ofcom said in September that Kuiper planned to “provide secure, high speed, low latency broadband services to a variety of retail and wholesale customers in the UK” including households, government — such as schools, hospitals and offices — first responders and disaster relief operators.

Kuiper’s planned satellite constellation was at the time expected to launch in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the project already having been beset by delays.

Kuiper is also eyeing direct-to-device satellite services, which would enable consumers to text, call or use data on their mobile phones. Ofcom published in November a call for views on the service, in which Amazon said it was “exploring options” for such a plan.

Kuiper added that direct-to-device services had the “potential to facilitate innovation and improve connectivity, even in the most remote parts of the UK”, and could be “especially valuable in emergency situations occurring outside of the coverage areas of terrestrial systems or following natural or man-made disasters that compromise terrestrial networks”.

Ofcom said on Sunday that it planned to consult on specific proposals to authorise direct-to-device satellite services in mobile bands in the UK early this year. “Subject to consideration of stakeholder responses and our final decisions this could enable such services to be offered to consumers later in 2025,” it added.

--> Elon Musk is standing in the way as Jeff Bezos reaches for orbit

Though the Amazon founder has ground to make up, he is unlikely to be short of customers for his space project

from 02/01/2025

Filings show Kuiper initiative held meetings with MoD as tech group bids to rival Starlink

Amazon’s satellite operation, Project Kuiper, is pushing ahead with plans to launch a broadband service in the UK, as the tech group founded by Jeff Bezos attempts to take on Elon Musk’s Starlink. 

Kuiper is not yet operational, but has previously said it expects to begin deploying its satellite constellation in early 2025 and that it plans to roll out its broadband service later this year. It aims to compete with Starlink in low Earth orbit, a region of space where satellites can provide broadband to areas across the globe poorly served by traditional internet services.

Kuiper needs approval from the UK communications regulator Ofcom to provide broadband services across the country. A final decision on Kuiper’s licence is pending, after a consultation closed in October on Ofcom’s proposal to approve it.

Ofcom said on Sunday that it was “still considering the Amazon application for an Earth Station Network licence to allow Amazon Kuiper to operate terminals in the UK”.

Amazon has also been in talks with the UK Ministry of Defence. Filings show that last year Kuiper discussed a study it carried out on behalf of the UK Space Command. Blue Origin — Bezos’s separate space company — also had a “capability discussion”, according to transparency data published by the government department. The meetings were first reported by the Sunday Telegraph newspaper.

Amazon did not immediately respond to a request seeking comment. The MoD declined to comment.

Meanwhile, SpaceX’s Starlink is operational in more than 100 countries including the UK. A launch of satellite services by Amazon in the UK would follow an increase in demand for Musk’s broadband offering in the country. Ofcom in December reported that Starlink’s service had reached 87,000 connections across the UK — more than double the 42,000 the previous year — with the majority in rural areas.

Starlink’s satellite broadband capacity for the south-east of the country has also sold out. Its website shows it has a waiting list for new connections in a region including London, and stretching from Milton Keynes to Hastings and Andover to Canterbury.

SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request seeking comment.

In its game of catch-up with Starlink, Kuiper must first secure Ofcom’s approval for a licence for certain band frequencies that would enable the delivery of broadband from a constellation of satellites in low Earth orbit.

Ofcom said in September that Kuiper planned to “provide secure, high speed, low latency broadband services to a variety of retail and wholesale customers in the UK” including households, government — such as schools, hospitals and offices — first responders and disaster relief operators.

Kuiper’s planned satellite constellation was at the time expected to launch in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the project already having been beset by delays.

Kuiper is also eyeing direct-to-device satellite services, which would enable consumers to text, call or use data on their mobile phones. Ofcom published in November a call for views on the service, in which Amazon said it was “exploring options” for such a plan.

Kuiper added that direct-to-device services had the “potential to facilitate innovation and improve connectivity, even in the most remote parts of the UK”, and could be “especially valuable in emergency situations occurring outside of the coverage areas of terrestrial systems or following natural or man-made disasters that compromise terrestrial networks”.

Ofcom said on Sunday that it planned to consult on specific proposals to authorise direct-to-device satellite services in mobile bands in the UK early this year. “Subject to consideration of stakeholder responses and our final decisions this could enable such services to be offered to consumers later in 2025,” it added.

The nation’s busiest spaceports are fielding record demand, spurring new efforts to develop launch sites in landlocked states and even at sea

A traffic jam is forming at U.S. rocket-launch sites.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX and other rocket companies are planning to increase flights in the years ahead as they ferry their own satellites or payloads for other customers to space.

The problem: Only three sites in Florida and California handle most U.S. rocket launches, and those locations are expected to become increasingly congested as companies and regulators schedule more missions.

Last year marked a record in U.S. spaceflight with 145 launches reaching orbit, or five times as many as 2017, according to data from astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, who closely tracks space activities. SpaceX—the world’s top rocket launcher—conducted 134 of that total.

Government officials and industry executives fear that backed-up launch sites would restrict payloads from getting to space in a timely manner. A significant weather event or an accident could put one of the major spaceports out of commission for months or even years, said George Nield, the former top space official at the Federal Aviation Administration.

“We’re so dependent on space, to put all your eggs in one basket is a risky strategy,” he said.

Operators of smaller and nascent spaceports, including those in landlocked states and at sea, are jockeying for new business, but face their own set of expansion hurdles.

‘Ready to move’

For decades, rocket launches were relatively rare and there was little appetite for creating new sites. The most prominent locations then and currently are tied to military bases and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Kennedy Space Center.

Multiple spaceport operators are now trying to take advantage of the crunch forming at the main sites. The Pacific Spaceport Complex, located on Alaska’s Kodiak Island, has never seen more than three rocket launches in a year.

Still, it is seeking federal clearance to launch up to 25 times annually, and its forecast for flights five years out is already starting to fill up, said John Oberst, the chief executive of Alaska Aerospace Corp., which oversees the Kodiak spaceport. The facility is looking to coax smaller rocket companies affected by congestion to its launchpads, Oberst said.

Launches can’t just occur anywhere. Rockets are typically sent up from coastal areas, where vehicles soar over water and avoid the risks of flying above populated areas.

Developing new launch facilities along coastal areas is difficult, as locals often worry about disruptions and noise. A proposal to develop a new launch site along the coast in southeast Georgia unraveled a couple of years ago amid public opposition.

Nearly two decades ago, a spaceport in Oklahoma became the first inland site to receive an FAA license for plane-based spaceflights, where an aircraft would ferry a rocket to a high altitude before the rocket detaches to fly to space. The site has yet to conduct a launch. Officials at the spaceport have commissioned a study to determine how to safely launch rockets over land.

“There has to be a first mover, and we’re ready to move,” said Bailey J. Siegfried, vice chair of the Oklahoma Space Industry Development Authority’s board of directors.

Tom Marotta founded the Spaceport Company in 2022 to swallow up rising launch demand. His idea: launches from boats in the ocean. The Boeing Sea Launch System, an international collaboration that launched a couple dozen times from an old floating oil rig, provided a blueprint, he said.

Launches can’t just occur anywhere. Rockets are typically sent up from coastal areas, where vehicles soar over water and avoid the risks of flying above populated areas.

Developing new launch facilities along coastal areas is difficult, as locals often worry about disruptions and noise. A proposal to develop a new launch site along the coast in southeast Georgia unraveled a couple of years ago amid public opposition.

Nearly two decades ago, a spaceport in Oklahoma became the first inland site to receive an FAA license for plane-based spaceflights, where an aircraft would ferry a rocket to a high altitude before the rocket detaches to fly to space. The site has yet to conduct a launch. Officials at the spaceport have commissioned a study to determine how to safely launch rockets over land.

“There has to be a first mover, and we’re ready to move,” said Bailey J. Siegfried, vice chair of the Oklahoma Space Industry Development Authority’s board of directors.

Tom Marotta founded the Spaceport Company in 2022 to swallow up rising launch demand. His idea: launches from boats in the ocean. The Boeing Sea Launch System, an international collaboration that launched a couple dozen times from an old floating oil rig, provided a blueprint, he said.

Companies have tussled over control of pads at busy spaceports.

SpaceX has conducted its launch ramp-up largely from Florida, and is working to bring Starship—the name of the powerful vehicle it is developing—to the Kennedy Space Center and an open pad within the Space Force’s Cape Canaveral base.

Rivals have raised concerns about those plans, including potential congestion the huge rocket might cause. SpaceX didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The boutique bank, long seen as a holdout, could sell a stake after recent interest from big investors

Centerview Partners has long been seen as a holdout on Wall Street as one of the only boutique banks that hasn’t gone public or taken outside money.

That could finally change.

The firm is becoming more open to exploring its options, Centerview co-founder Blair Effron suggested in a recent interview. Those could include selling a stake in the firm to an outside investor or going public.

Centerview has recently received interest from big investors, people familiar with the matter said.

This comes after Centerview booked record revenue in 2024. The stocks of its publicly traded rivals including Evercore and PJT have surged in the past few years and jumped further on the expectation dealmaking will rebound under President-elect Donald Trump.

A transaction could also assuage Centerview’s roughly 80 partners, including a handful who are near or past the age of 60 and would likely welcome an opportunity to sell shares.

Centerview booked roughly $1.9 billion of revenue in 2024, up from $1.5 billion the prior year. The company’s revenue has increased every year except one since its 2006 founding.

Centerview is best known for its dominant healthcare deals franchise and its founders’ long track records advising clients in the consumer-goods sector. The firm also punches above its weight in other areas, such as industrials and media and entertainment. Close to 30% of the firm’s revenue today comes from general advisory, rather than deals.

“I never wanted to think about anything around monetization until the firm was broad enough to be stable enough, irrespective of the environment,” Effron said from the firm’s Midtown Manhattan headquarters. “I feel comfortable that that is no longer a concern.”

Still, Effron and his co-founder, Robert Pruzan, cautioned that the newfound stance doesn’t guarantee the firm will do a deal soon, especially given that the firm is doing well as is.

“It’s going to be a high bar,” Pruzan said.

Effron, 62, and Pruzan, 61, jointly control the firm. In spring 2023, Centerview elevated Eric Tokat, a rainmaker in biotech dealmaking, and Tony Kim, who has advised on many of the firm’s biggest deals, as co-presidents. The move clarified the firm’s succession plans and laid the groundwork for changes ahead.

Boutiques on the rise

Centerview’s boutique-bank peers were handsomely rewarded in the public market last year, partly because their focus on advisory work makes them a straightforward way to invest in an anticipated dealmaking uptick.

Shares of Perella rallied over 90% in 2024, Evercore shares rose more than 60% and PJT shares rose about 55%. (The run-up in PJT’s shares made its founder, Paul Taubman, a billionaire, the Financial Times reported.) Shares of Lazard, Houlihan Lokey and Moelis also surged.

If Centerview traded at a multiple similar to that of its rivals, it could command a valuation of as much as $10 billion.

Boutiques have been taking a bigger slice of Wall Street’s fee pool, too, raking in the second-highest share of M&A advisory fees in the U.S. in 2024 after 2020, according to data from LSEG. As a group, they took 38% of M&A advisory fees in 2024. And Centerview had the largest share of the U.S. boutiques, with 5.35% of M&A advisory fees.

Centerview ranked fourth among all the banks for U.S. M&A revenue in 2024, trailing JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, according to Dealogic.

The bank also says it is the most productive, with the highest revenue per employee of its peer set.

One criticism of the firm—and a factor that could complicate any plan to go public—has been its heavy reliance on healthcare, which accounts for a disproportionate share of the firm’s revenue. Centerview’s healthcare team, spearheaded by Alan Hartman, Mark Robinson and Tokat, rarely misses a major deal in the sector.

The firm also has some notable areas for improvement, including the all-important tech sector.

Pruzan said the business isn’t overly reliant on any one industry. He emphasized its work on corporate restructurings, counseling special committees, as well as a recent string of media-and-telecom deals, which included advising Paramount Global’s special committee on its merger with David Ellison’s production company Skydance.

Centerview also advised Capital One on its more than $35 billion acquisition of Discover Financial Services, 2024’s largest deal, and worked on some of the biggest activist situations, including at Disney, Starbucks and Honeywell.

Both Effron and Pruzan are expecting another banner year for the business in 2025. “There’s a level of optimism that I see everywhere and I really think it’s justified,” Effron said.

RÉCIT - L’ex patron portugais menait la vie dure aux salariés du groupe, avec sa chasse aux coûts permanente. L’héritier Agnelli a repris les rênes. Il impose un changement de style, qui soulage les équipes.

Le champagne sabré à la cantine du centre de recherche et développement de Vélizy, c’est une première chez Stellantis. Un événement inimaginable il y a encore quelques semaines, alors que régnait l’austère Carlos Tavares. Les 130 cadres de direction du groupe venus de toute l’Europe ce vendredi 6 décembre, à la demande de John Elkann, le nouveau président du «comité exécutif intérimaire», n’en sont d’ailleurs pas revenus. Par ce geste inédit mais aussi par son discours, le petit-fils de Gianni Agnelli, l’emblématique patron de Fiat, a voulu ouvrir une nouvelle ère, après l’éviction le 1er décembre du directeur général portugais. John Elkann, qui pilote aussi le holding familial Exor, premier actionnaire du groupe et préside de surcroît le conseil d’administration, a demandé à ses hauts cadres «de ne jamais faire de compromis sur la qualité des produits Stellantis, ou sur la relation avec nos clients et parties prenantes».

« Le message était de ramener le calme et la sérénité au sein du groupe, sans pour autant changer de cap », résume l’un des participants. Calme et sérénité : le virage est net, après des années de tension permanente au sein du groupe aux quatorze marques (Peugeot, Citroën, Fiat, Opel, Chrysler, Jeep, Ram, Maserati...). Et pour bien faire passer le message, John Elkann a rencontré, dans chaque pays clé du groupe né de la fusion de PSA et de Fiat-Chrysler, les cadres de direction, tout en multipliant les visites des usines historiques comme à Rüsselsheim (Allemagne) chez Opel et à Mirafiori (Italie) chez Fiat. Une véritable tournée diplomatique. À chaque fois, l’héritier de la famille Agnelli distribue de bonnes nouvelles. « Toutes les usines vont rester en activité », promet-il, alors que la plupart d’entre elles tournent au ralenti faute de commandes. Le changement de ton est «sidérant». « La vitesse à laquelle il s’opère est extrêmement rapide», résume un cadre supérieur de Stellantis.

Les relations avec les gouvernements aussi ont pris un tour nouveau. Sur tous les continents, John Elkann, enchaîne les rendez-vous rassurants avec les chefs d’État, alors que la défiance à l’égard des hommes politiques en Italie et aux États-Unis s’était infiltrée à tous les étages du quatrième groupe automobile mondial ces dernières années. On se souvient de l’échange musclé entre Carlos Tavares et la première ministre italienne Georgia Meloni en février 2024. Celle-ci avait pris contact avec le Chinois BYD pour qu’il s’installe en Italie. Une manière de faire pression sur Stellantis, seul constructeur en Italie, accusé de ne pas investir assez au pays de Fiat. «Ceux qui seraient en train de flirter avec les constructeurs chinois pour les inviter à venir en Italie empruntent la même route que ceux qui ont vendu Volvo à Geely ou MG à un autre constructeur chinois», avait cinglé Carlos Tavares.

Amadouer Donald Trump

Ces changements de ton sont surtout synonymes de ruptures plus profondes. Des décisions stratégiques prises par Carlos Tavares n’ont pas tardé à être abandonnées par la nouvelle direction en Europe et aux États-Unis, signe qu’elles suscitaient le doute et le désaccord depuis un certain temps.

Premier revirement : le bon élève de l’électrique en Europe va désormais se montrer moins allant, à l’image de ses concurrents. Stellantis qui s’était désolidarisé de l’Association des constructeurs automobiles européens (Acea) fin 2022 est revenu au bercail du lobby du secteur. Il réclame désormais, comme son rival Renault, d’assouplir la réglementation sur les émissions de CO2 des véhicules, par crainte des amendes prévues fin 2025 et pour mieux répondre à une demande trop timide de véhicules 100% électriques.

De l’autre côté de l’Atlantique, une volte-face a aussi eu lieu. Pendant la campagne électorale américaine, un bras de fer s’était engagé entre Donald Trump qui se posait en défenseur d’une automobile 100% «made in USA» et Carlos Tavares, qui voulait continuer à accroître la production au Mexique. Preuve de ses bonnes dispositions à l’égard du nouveau président, l’équipe de John Elkann a, elle, annulé juste avant Noël le projet de supprimer 1100 postes dans l’usine Jeep de Toledo, dans l’Ohio. Stellantis espère que cette décision sera suffisante pour calmer le sénateur républicain de cet État, Bernie Moreno, qui a fait fortune dans la distribution automobile. Ce dernier, qui se targue de son influence sur Donald Trump, est allé jusqu’à interpeller John Elkann en lui demandant de céder Chrysler avec ses différentes marques (Jeep, Ram, Dodge, Chrysler), afin que le constructeur redevienne 100% américain.

Une politique contre-productive

Le changement de cap est également très net avec les concessionnaires, ambassadeurs des marques du groupe auprès des clients. Chez PSA déjà, Carlos Tavares était convaincu que les distributeurs gagnaient beaucoup trop d’argent sur le dos des industriels. Pendant le Covid, il a élaboré une stratégie commerciale fondée sur le développement des ventes digitales qui réduisait les coûts de distribution d’environ 20%. « Mais le produit automobile, c’est compliqué à vendre en ligne. Ce ne sont pas comme des imprimantes ! », rappelle l’un des cadres supérieurs de Stellantis venu de PSA.

En parallèle, Carlos Tavares a coupé les vivres aux concessionnaires, et notamment leurs moyens marketing (rabais, transport des véhicules...). «Lorsque les distributeurs achetaient les modèles sortis d’usine, ils devaient attendre des mois que Stellantis les paie. Cela a pu durer jusqu’à un an. Certains investisseurs de concessions Stellantis ont été en très grandes difficultés », ajoute François Mary, le nouveau président de l’Association des groupements des concessionnaires de marques Stellantis (AGGS). Le patron d’un grand groupe de concessions automobiles avait même donné comme consigne à ses collaborateurs de ne jamais reprendre d’enseigne du groupe Stellantis pour éviter l’enfer vécu par bon nombre d’investisseurs...

Cette politique avait fini par être contre-productive. Peu de gestes commerciaux en concession, prix élevé des véhicules : les clients ont déserté les showrooms. Le «pricing power», ce prix plus élevé que celui des concurrents, justifié selon Carlos Tavares par l’attrait des marques, a cessé de fonctionner. « Aujourd’hui la part de marché de Peugeot qui se maintenait à 18% en France, est passée sous les 14%, se lamente un distributeur. Celles de l’ensemble des marques de Stellantis en France sont maintenant inférieures à celles de PSA avant la fusion ».

Alerte des concessionnaires

Plusieurs représentants de distributeurs automobiles qui avaient l’oreille de la famille Peugeot avaient donné l’alerte ces dernières années. Sans succès. Ils assistent à présent à un revirement spectaculaire. Le nouveau patron de la région Europe élargie, Jean-Philippe Imparato, vieux compagnon de route de Carlos Tavares et dont la fibre commerciale est saluée unanimement, leur a promis de tout mettre en œuvre pour ramener les clients. « La nouvelle équipe a compris que la politique du tout digital et du tout électrique n’était pas tenable», confie François Mary. «Pour faire tourner les usines, ils ont besoin de volumes et ils doivent pouvoir s’appuyer sur nous ! , rappelle un vendeur. Aujourd’hui, le message, c’est plutôt ’Si c’est bon pour le client, faites-le’ ». Au point même de relancer les versions diesel de plusieurs modèles appréciés des professionnels.

Plus généralement, la chasse aux coûts poussée à l’extrême, marque de fabrique de Carlos Tavares, ne semble plus être l’alpha et l’oméga de Stellantis. Au sein du groupe, des voix s’élèvent désormais pour dénoncer ce système de rabotage qui garantissait la fameuse «marge à deux chiffres». Le dirigeant portugais, à l’époque auréolé dans l’industrie, l’avait promise jusqu’à la fin de la décennie. « Ce double digit « sacré » était choquant, confie un cadre supérieur qui a longtemps admiré ce que Carlos Tavares a fait de PSA et d’Opel. Cette obsession s’est reportée sur les fournisseurs avec des délais de paiement insoutenables. En interne, la pratique du « capping », qui limitait le cash utilisé chaque semaine par chaque branche et les mettait en compétition les unes avec les autres, induisait des retards de paiements et des dysfonctionnements chez les fournisseurs. Stellantis était même contraint de payer des pénalités pour cette raison. Cette pratique peut se justifier quand l’entreprise est en grande difficulté, mais cela n’a jamais été le cas chez Stellantis ».

Les coupes claires ont aussi décimé les troupes. La nouvelle direction va-t-elle aussi stopper l’hémorragie des cadres et techniciens, vivement incités sous l’ère Tavares à donner une nouvelle orientation à leur carrière ? Comprendre, quitter le groupe. « Chacun recevait de manière récurrente un e-mail pour contacter sa DRH et prendre connaissance des conditions de départ», rappelle un syndicaliste. Le dernier plan de suppression de postes, déclenché en juillet en France et portant sur 1300 départs dans le cadre d’une rupture conventionnelle collective, a atteint son quota dès le 1er décembre, alors qu’il pouvait rester ouvert jusqu’en août 2025. « À cela s’ajoutent les mesures d’âge pour les seniors», précise Frédéric Lemayitch, le représentant de la CFTC chez Stellantis.

Décentrer l’organisation

Cadres, syndicalistes, ouvriers, expriment une sourde colère face à la perte de compétences liée à tous ces départs. Et font le lien avec la répétition des crises dues aux problèmes de qualité - moteurs PureTech, airbags Takata défaillants...-, jamais pris en compte au juste niveau. « Aujourd’hui, l’entreprise doit se reconfigurer et se recentrer sur ses compétences, espère un ingénieur cadre supérieur, nostalgique de la culture d’excellence. Les choix dictés par la course aux économies ont conduit à des défauts de conception et de qualité vraiment graves». Un cadre du groupe renchérit : « aujourd’hui, il est nécessaire de faire une pause pour éviter que les pertes de compétences compliquent dramatiquement les objectifs des années 2025 et 2026».

Même s’il est encore trop tôt pour mesurer l’ampleur du changement à venir dans les usines et dans les bureaux, les représentants des salariés notent la volonté de décentraliser l’organisation. «Très verticale, elle va s’aplatir, prédit un cadre exécutif de Stellantis. Dorénavant, elle sera gérée par grande région du monde de manière plus autonome, comme c’était le cas chez Fiat-Chrysler auparavant ».

Le prochain directeur général ne sera probablement plus le patron omnipotent qui glaçait son auditoire. « Sous Tavares, c’était le petit doigt sur la couture du pantalon, raconte Frédéric Lemayitch de la CFTC. Il ne savait pas déléguer. Il était craint et donnait l’impression d’aimer être LE boss. Aujourd’hui, la pression s’est relâchée».

Une industrie très concurrentielle

Reste que les inconnues sont nombreuses et que l’automobile est une industrie de forte pression concurrentielle. Le darwinisme cher à l’ancien directeur général ne sortait pas de nulle part. « On ne sait pas trop ce qui se passera lorsque le successeur de Carlos Tavares sera arrivé », souligne Frédéric Lemayitch. La volonté affichée de doper la production en Italie se fera-t-elle au détriment des usines françaises ? L’activité des sites industriels dédiés à l’électrique sera-t-elle revue à la baisse ? Le télétravail généralisé à trois jours par semaine pour les fonctions tertiaires sera-t-il revu à la baisse ?

Aujourd’hui, beaucoup s’interrogent sur les leviers que vont utiliser les actionnaires pour continuer de profiter de la machine à cash que Carlos Tavares avait inventée. Jamais ces derniers n’avaient gagné autant d’argent qu’avec l’ancien patron de PSA. En 2024, plus de 7,7 milliards d’euros auront été distribués en dividendes et rachats d’action. Carlos Tavares avait d’ailleurs programmé de faire mieux encore en 2025 avec un taux de redistribution situé entre 25% et 30%, contre 25% jusqu’alors.

Les détenteurs d’actions Stellantis devront prendre leur mal en patience pour retrouver leur bonne fortune. Mais pas question de voir la profitabilité chuter. Même avec un management moins raide, il faudra encore serrer les coûts. Les actionnaires comptent sur le premier d’entre eux, John Elkann, le représentant d’Exor, pour veiller au grain.

Stellantis: The Elkann Method to Break Away from the Tavares Era
Champagne, “cuddle therapy,” plant visits… At Stellantis, Elkann’s approach is shaking up the post-Tavares era

STORY – The former Portuguese boss gave employees a hard time with his relentless cost-cutting drive. Now, the Agnelli heir has taken the reins. He has ushered in a change of style that comes as a relief to teams.

Sabring champagne in the cafeteria of the research and development center in Vélizy—a first at Stellantis. An event that would have been unimaginable just a few weeks ago, under the austere Carlos Tavares. The 130 senior executives from across Europe who gathered that Friday, December 6, at the request of John Elkann, the new chairman of the “interim executive committee,” could hardly believe their eyes. With this unprecedented gesture and his speech, the grandson of Gianni Agnelli, Fiat’s legendary leader, sought to open a new chapter, following the ouster on December 1 of the Portuguese CEO. John Elkann, who also heads the family holding Exor (the group’s main shareholder) and additionally chairs the board of directors, asked his top executives “never to compromise on the quality of Stellantis products or on relationships with our customers and stakeholders.”

“One of the meeting’s takeaways was to bring calm and serenity back to the group, without changing course,” explains one participant. Calm and serenity: it is a sharp pivot after years of nonstop tension within the group’s fourteen brands (Peugeot, Citroën, Fiat, Opel, Chrysler, Jeep, Ram, Maserati, etc.). To reinforce the point, John Elkann met with executive teams in every key country of the group—born from the merger of PSA and Fiat-Chrysler—while multiplying visits to historic plants like Rüsselsheim (Germany) for Opel and Mirafiori (Italy) for Fiat. A genuine goodwill tour. Each time, the Agnelli heir delivers positive news. “All plants will remain operational,” he promises, even though many of them are running at a slow pace due to a lack of orders. The change in tone is “astounding.” “It’s happening extremely quickly,” says a senior Stellantis manager.

Relations with governments have also taken on a new tone. Across the continents, John Elkann is holding reassuring meetings with heads of state, while over the past few years distrust of politicians in Italy and the United States had permeated every level of the world’s fourth-largest automaker. People remember the tense exchange in February 2024 between Carlos Tavares and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who had approached the Chinese company BYD about investing in Italy—Italy’s way of pressuring Stellantis, the country’s only carmaker, which was accused of not investing enough in Fiat’s homeland. “Those who are flirting with Chinese automakers to invite them to Italy are taking the same path as those who sold Volvo to Geely or MG to another Chinese manufacturer,” Carlos Tavares had retorted sharply.

Wooing Donald Trump

These shifts in tone also hint at deeper fractures. Strategic decisions taken by Carlos Tavares have not been slow to be abandoned by the new management in Europe and the United States, underscoring the doubts and disagreements they had been causing for some time.

The first turnaround: The shining star of electric vehicles in Europe now plans to be more cautious, aligning itself with competitors. After leaving the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) at the end of 2022, Stellantis has now returned to the industry lobby. Like its rival Renault, it is calling for more flexibility in CO₂ emissions regulations, fearing the fines scheduled for late 2025 and aiming to better adapt to a still-weak demand for 100% electric vehicles.

Across the Atlantic, there has also been an about-face. During the U.S. presidential campaign, a standoff arose between Donald Trump, who portrayed himself as the champion of 100% “Made in USA” cars, and Carlos Tavares, who wanted to keep increasing production in Mexico. To show good faith to the new president, John Elkann’s team canceled the plan—right before Christmas—to cut 1,100 jobs at the Jeep plant in Toledo, Ohio. Stellantis hopes this will be enough to appease Ohio’s Republican Senator Bernie Moreno, who made his fortune in car dealerships. Moreno, who boasts of his close ties to Donald Trump, went so far as to challenge John Elkann by calling on him to sell Chrysler along with its brands (Jeep, Ram, Dodge, Chrysler) in order to make the carmaker 100% American again.

A Counterproductive Policy

There is also a marked change in policy toward dealerships, which serve as the group’s brand ambassadors to customers. Back at PSA, Carlos Tavares was already convinced that dealers were making too much money at the automaker’s expense. During COVID, he devised a commercial strategy focusing on online sales, cutting distribution costs by about 20%. “But cars are complicated to sell online. It’s not like selling printers!” points out one senior Stellantis executive who came from PSA.

Meanwhile, Carlos Tavares slashed financial support for dealers, including marketing funds (rebates, vehicle transport, etc.). “When dealers bought vehicles coming off the production line, they had to wait months for Stellantis to pay them. In some cases it lasted up to a year. Some Stellantis dealership investors faced huge challenges,” adds François Mary, the new chairman of the Stellantis Brand Dealership Association (AGGS). The head of a large automotive dealership group even told his teams never to take on a Stellantis franchise again to avoid the misery many investors had gone through.

Eventually, this policy became counterproductive. Dealers could hardly offer special deals in showrooms, and car prices rose. Customers simply stopped coming. The “pricing power”—charging more than competitors on the assumption that the brands alone justified higher prices—stopped working. “Peugeot’s market share, which used to hold steady at 18% in France, has fallen below 14%,” laments one dealer. “All Stellantis brands combined now have a lower market share in France than PSA had before the merger.”

Dealers Raise the Alarm

Several dealership representatives with the ear of the Peugeot family had already sounded the alarm in recent years, to no avail. Now they are seeing a remarkable change of direction. The new head of the Expanded Europe region, Jean-Philippe Imparato—an old ally of Carlos Tavares who is widely praised for his commercial expertise—has pledged to do whatever it takes to win customers back. “The new team has realized that a fully digital approach and an all-electric strategy are not feasible,” says François Mary. “To keep the factories running, they need volumes, and they need us!” adds one salesperson. “Today, the message is more like ‘If it’s good for the customer, go for it.’” They have even reintroduced diesel versions of several models favored by professionals.

More generally, relentless cost-cutting—Carlos Tavares’ signature—is no longer Stellantis’s alpha and omega. Inside the group, people are increasingly speaking out against the across-the-board cuts that had secured the revered “double-digit margins.” The Portuguese boss, who was a star in the industry at the time, had pledged to maintain these double-digit profits through the end of the decade. “That sacred ‘double-digit’ target was shocking,” confides a senior executive who long admired Carlos Tavares for what he did at PSA and Opel. “This obsession shifted onto suppliers with untenable payment deadlines. Internally, the ‘capping’ system—limiting the cash each branch could use every week and pitting them against each other—led to payment delays and disrupted supplier operations. Stellantis even had to pay penalties for that. It might make sense if a company is in real trouble, but that was never Stellantis’s situation.”

Putting the Brakes on Job Cuts?

Sweeping cuts have also thinned the ranks. Will the new management stop the exodus of managers and technicians who were strongly encouraged under Tavares to “reorient their careers”—in other words, leave the company? “Everyone regularly received an email inviting them to contact HR to learn about departure terms,” recalls a union representative. The last plan for job cuts, launched in France in July and involving 1,300 departures through a collective mutually agreed termination, reached its target by December 1, even though it could have remained open until August 2025. “On top of that, you also have age-related measures for older workers,” adds Frédéric Lemayitch, the CFTC representative at Stellantis.

Managers, union reps, and factory workers all share a simmering anger over the loss of skills resulting from these departures. They see it tied to repeated quality-related crises—issues with PureTech engines, faulty Takata airbags—that were never properly addressed. “Now, the company needs to restructure and refocus on its core skills,” hopes a senior engineering manager, nostalgic for a culture of excellence. “Cost-cutting led to severe design and quality problems.” Another Stellantis executive agrees: “We need to pause to keep the loss of expertise from endangering our 2025 and 2026 objectives.”

Although it’s too soon to measure the full impact of upcoming changes in the factories and offices, employee representatives note a desire to decentralize. “Highly vertical, the organization will become more horizontal,” predicts a Stellantis executive. “From now on, it will be managed by major world regions with more autonomy, as was the case at Fiat-Chrysler before.”

A Less Omnipotent CEO?

The next CEO likely won’t be the all-powerful boss who sent chills through the ranks. “Under Tavares, people toed the line,” says Frédéric Lemayitch of the CFTC. “He didn’t know how to delegate. He was feared and seemed to enjoy being THE boss. Now, the pressure has eased.”

But the automotive industry remains highly competitive, and many unknowns remain. The Darwinian approach favored by the former CEO was not without basis. “We don’t really know what will happen when Carlos Tavares’s successor arrives,” says Frédéric Lemayitch. Will the stated intention to ramp up production in Italy come at the expense of French plants? Will output at electric-only sites be scaled back? Will remote work—three days a week for office employees—be reduced?

Today, many people are wondering which levers shareholders will use to continue benefiting from the cash-generating machine that Carlos Tavares built. Under the former PSA boss, they never made as much money. In 2024, over €7.7 billion was paid out via dividends and share buybacks. Carlos Tavares had even planned more for 2025, targeting a payout ratio of 25% to 30%, compared to 25% up to now.

Shareholders will have to be patient if they hope to return to such prosperity. But there’s no question of allowing profitability to plummet. Even with a less rigid management style, costs will still have to be kept in check. The shareholders are counting on their chief representative, John Elkann of Exor, to keep a close watch.