FT : Shares of alcohol makers fall after US official calls for cancer warnings

Shares of alcohol makers fall after US official calls for cancer warnings
Surgeon-general calls for more prominent warning labels on drinks to raise awareness of the link

Shares of drinks makers fell after the US surgeon-general said alcoholic beverages should carry a warning to boost awareness about their link to cancer.

The US’s top government doctor on Friday released a public-health advisory stating alcohol consumption ranks behind tobacco and obesity as the third leading preventable cause of cancer in the US.

Surgeon-general Vivek Murthy said Congress should authorise updated warning labels on beverages containing alcohol about the cancer risk, among other actions that could reduce related cancers in the US.

The advisory and the recommendations are reminiscent of public health efforts targeting the tobacco industry over recent decades, which have led to a dramatic decline in smoking.

Alcohol stocks on both sides of the Atlantic sold off after the advisory on Friday, leaving the share prices of several brewery and distillery owners down more than 2 per cent. At the extreme end, Rémy Cointreau tumbled 5 per cent, while New York-listed shares of Boston Beer closed almost 4 per cent lower.


Alcohol was first classified as a group 1 carcinogen — meaning it is an agent known to cause cancer in humans — by the International Agency for Research on Cancer in the 1980s. Murthy said evidence of the link between alcohol and cancer has strengthened over time and that for some cancers, such as those of the breast, mouth and throat, the risk starts to rise when people have one or fewer drinks a day.

The World Health Organization issued guidance in 2022 saying there is no safe amount of alcohol consumption that does not affect health. In a statement in the medical journal The Lancet Public Health, the agency said the latest data indicated half of all cancers that could be attributed to alcohol were caused by light or moderate drinking, defined as the equivalent of less than one and a half-litres of wine, three and a half-litres of beer, or 450ml of spirits a week.

The surgeon-general said less than half of all Americans were aware drinking alcohol increases the risk of developing cancer. Awareness was far greater for the increased risk from radiation, tobacco and asbestos, the advisory said.

While many countries, including the US, require alcoholic drinks to be labelled with some health warnings, such as the risks of drinking for pregnant women, few specifically alert consumers to the increased risk of cancer. Ireland and South Korea have put warnings about cancer on alcoholic drinks in recent years.

Alcohol can cause cancer by damaging DNA, increasing inflammation, or altering the levels of hormones such as oestrogen. It can also make it easier for other carcinogens such as tobacco smoke to be absorbed into the body.

FT Lex : Europe readies for scattergun defence-spend bonanza

Europe readies for scattergun defence-spend bonanza
Sickly economies and budgetary pressures likely to hit proposals and any increase will be thinly spread

European plans to fund military spending are proliferating at speed. Anticipating a reduced contribution from the US, the EU is considering a €500bn special purpose vehicle, funded through sovereign-guaranteed bonds. The bloc is also planning to divert a chunk of its common budget to defence. European Nato members are discussing a step-up in targeted spend, from 2 to 3 per cent of GDP. That is still well short of the 5 per cent US president-elect Donald Trump wants them to cough up.

While any new pots of cash will be good news for Europe’s defence sector, which has been on a tear since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, there are caveats. The bounty will not be evenly spread, with state-owned group or manufacturers of specialised kit capturing much of it. Buckled supply chains create problems at the top. And fast-evolving technology is changing the landscape of warfare.

The EU’s Act in Support of Ammunition Production is illustrative. It handed out €500mn to boost production to an annual 2mn shells from the end of next year. Nearly half went to state-owned and private companies, Jefferies estimates; of the remainder Germany’s Rheinmetall took a fifth, the UK’s Chemring 13 per cent and Thales 2 per cent.

Warfare and national security are only part of the picture. Years of peacetime under-investment means there is a lot of catching up to do on upgrading kit while supply chains, fractured by deglobalisation, are being reconfigured.

It does not help that industry supply chains are made up of sprawling networks of small and medium-sized enterprises. Take Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri, which works with more than 7,000 SMEs. Such companies lack the robust balance sheets of the primes and are often last in line for loans and other financing. That makes it difficult for them to expand production capacity.

Besides, a big step-up in European funding cannot be banked on. For one, sickly economies and budgetary pressures will weigh on efforts to expand Nato spending. Already, a quarter of Nato members fail to meet the 2 per cent target. Biggest spender Poland, contributing 4 per cent, and targeting 4.7 per cent in 2025 also has one of the smallest denominators; economic output is roughly half that of Spain, which supplies just 1.3 per cent of GDP on Nato’s 2024 estimates.

The UK ranks highly, pledging 2.5 per cent next year, but that still falls well short of its own internal projections that call for a 3.6 per cent spend — more than half as much again as is currently the case.

The will to increase spending and modernise military capabilities is strong; reaching targets will prove tougher.

FT : ‘There will be a bit of a slump’: London braced for luxury hotel glut

‘There will be a bit of a slump’: London braced for luxury hotel glut
Biggest number of room openings in more than a decade prompts concerns about oversupply and price cuts

London hoteliers are steeling themselves for the biggest number of luxury room openings in more than a decade this year, prompting concerns of oversupply and price cuts in the fiercely competitive market.

The 146-room Chancery Rosewood will open in the former US embassy in Grosvenor Square in the summer, while later in 2025 Six Senses will launch a new hotel in the former Whiteleys department store in Bayswater.

Around the same time, luxury operator Auberge Resorts Collection will open the 102-room Cambridge House in what used to be the In and Out naval and military club in Mayfair, with other launches due across the city.

The flurry comes after openings in 2024 such as the 50-room Mandarin Oriental Mayfair and Park Hyatt London River Thames, as well as renovation projects at The Savoy and London Hilton on Park Lane.

The openings will result in 757 new luxury hotel rooms in 2025 in Greater London, the biggest annual increase since 2014, according to analysis of figures from data provider AM:PM Hotels by real estate group Savills. The total number of luxury hotel rooms will rise by 4 per cent to 19,535.

“Overall, demand is weaker in London, but the offer [in the city] is increasing. So it’s a perfect storm,” said Gianluca Muzzi, co-chief executive of Maybourne Hotel Group, which owns Claridge’s, where the average daily rate is £1,800.

Fellow Maybourne co-chief executive Marc Socker said “various things may have stopped people coming to London” last year, citing the Paris Olympics and the UK government’s refusal to reinstate duty-free shopping.


Franck Arnold, managing director at the Savoy, said the five-star hotel had been forced to bring its daily rate below £1,000 in 2024 after suffering a 5 percentage point decline in occupancy in the first quarter.

Supply in London was continuing to increase at “a rate never experienced before”, which risked a “slight dilution of demand”, he added.

High-end hotels around the world have benefited in particular from the post-pandemic travel boom, with London no exception.

Luxury hotels in the UK capital make up about 16 per cent of the total of more than 110,000 hotel rooms, according to AM:PM. Their average daily room rates soared by 42 per cent between 2019 and 2023, according to CBRE, in contrast to a 27 per cent increase for the whole London market in the same period.

The real estate agency found the subsector had drawn wealthy travellers from the US and the Middle East, with the coronation of King Charles in May 2023 providing an extra boost.

Kenneth Hatton, head of hotels in Europe at CBRE, said that while Paris and Milan — which offer VAT-free shopping to international visitors — had enjoyed similar increases in daily rates, “London is by far the most visited city in Europe, and I would feel very good about the luxury sector in London”.

He added that demand had been helped by the increase in “high net-worth individuals” — with net assets valued above $1mn — around the world.

“Those luxury hotels that will stand the test of time will hold their room rate, they will accept a little lower occupancy”, and performance would eventually “ramp up”, Hatton said.


Richard Cooke, general manager of Brown’s Hotel in Mayfair, the oldest hotel in London, said “‘fear’ of oversupply is the wrong word . . . I’ve been aware of what was going on [and] what you have to change because you know it’s coming”.

The five-star flagship owned by Sir Rocco Forte, which was built in 1832, has undergone a series of recent refurbishments, including unveiling a new suite by British fashion designer Paul Smith, whose furnishings can be purchased by guests. A new spa and renovated fitness space will open in the next 18 months.

Cooke said the changes were aimed at “elevating the experience to engage guests” but that “if there is oversupply and under demand . . . you will see prices change for sure”, as he called for VAT-free shopping, abolished in 2021, to be restored.

The UK Treasury, which said before axing the scheme that tax-free shopping was a costly system, told the Financial Times in a statement that it had “no plans” to introduce a new framework in Great Britain.

Marie Hickey, director of commercial research at Savills, said that while luxury hotel openings had increased over the past few years, providers were focusing on suites, which used to be limited in London compared with rival cities such as Paris.

“We don’t think [the openings] will have a detrimental impact [on the market], because it’s just elevating the average daily rate,” with higher-end products, she said.

But in the short-term, hoteliers are navigating increased market pressures, especially as room rates start to normalise after last year’s jump. Industry figures said promotions such as four nights for the price of three were on the up.

Maybourne — which Socker said had invested “hundreds of millions of pounds” as part of a seven-year renovation of Claridge’s — last year opened the Emory, where every room is a suite.

Arnold at the Savoy said renovations to rooms, with the first expected to be unveiled in summer 2025, meant fewer rooms were available, which had helped “contain the rate erosion [and] optimise the remaining inventory at the higher rate”.

“There will be a bit of a slump within the next two to three years, in order to absorb [the new supply] but gradually, things will get better,” he added.

Other hotel groups are more confident of the near-term outlook for London’s high-end market, with US hospitality company Hilton planning to open its first Waldorf Astoria in the capital at Admiralty Arch in 2026.

Simon Vincent, Emea president at Hilton, said people were “still on a post-Covid high as it relates to travel. London has enough unique attributes to continue to thrive as a luxury destination, and they’re here to stay for a period of time.”

FT : Where the next financial crisis could emerge

Where the next financial crisis could emerge
As the IMF has warned, the rise and rise of private credit brings systemic risks

The recent growth of private markets has been a phenomenon. Indeed, private funds, which include venture capital, private equity, private debt, infrastructure, commodities and real estate, now dominate financial activity. According to consultants McKinsey, private markets’ assets under management reached $13.1tn in mid-2023 and have grown at close to 20 per cent a year since 2018.

For many years private markets have raised more in equity than public markets, where shrinkage as a result of share buybacks and takeover activity has not been made good by a dwindling volume of new issues. The vibrancy of private markets means that companies can stay private indefinitely, with no worries about gaining access to capital.

One outcome is a significant increase in the proportion of the equity market and the economy that is non-transparent to investors, policymakers and the public. Note that disclosure requirements are largely a matter of contract rather than regulation.

Much of this growth has taken place against the background of ultra-low interest rates since the 2007-08 financial crisis. McKinsey points out that roughly two-thirds of the total return for buyout deals entered in 2010 or later and exited in 2021 or before can be attributed to broader moves in market valuation multiples and leverage, rather than improved operating efficiency.

Today these windfall gains are no longer available. Borrowing costs have risen thanks to tighter monetary policy, and private equity managers have been having difficulty selling portfolio companies in a less buoyant market environment. Yet institutional investors have an ever-growing appetite for illiquid alternative investments. And big asset managers are seeking to attract rich retail investors into the area.

With public equity close to all-time highs, private equity is seen as offering better exposure to innovation within an ownership structure that ensures greater oversight and accountability than in the quoted sector. Meanwhile, half of funds surveyed by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, a UK think-tank, said they expected to increase their exposure to private credit over the next 12 months — up from about a quarter last year.

At the same time politicians, most notably in the UK, are adding impetus to this headlong rush, with a view to encouraging pension funds to invest in riskier assets, including infrastructure. Across Europe, regulators are relaxing liquidity rules and price caps in defined contribution pension plans.

Whether investors will reap a substantial illiquidity premium in these heady markets is moot. A joint report by asset manager Amundi and Create Research highlights the high fees and charges in private markets. It also outlines the opacity of the investment process and performance evaluation, high friction costs caused by premature exit from portfolio companies, high dispersion in ultimate investment returns and an all-time high level of dry powder — sums allocated but not invested, waiting for opportunities to arise. The report warns that the huge inflows into alternative assets could dilute returns.

There are wider economic questions about the burgeoning of private markets. As Allison Herren Lee, a former commissioner of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, has pointed out, private markets depend substantially on the ability to free ride on the transparency of information and prices in public markets. And as public markets continue to shrink, so does the value of that subsidy. The opacity of private markets could also lead to a misallocation of capital, according to Herren Lee.

Nor is the private equity model ideal for some types of infrastructure investment, as the experience of the British water industry demonstrates. Lenore Palladino and Harrison Karlewicz of the University of Massachusetts argue that asset managers are the worst kind of owners for an inherently long-term good or service. This is because they have no incentive to sacrifice in the short term for long-term innovations or even maintenance.

Much of the dynamic behind the shift to private markets is regulatory. Tougher capital adequacy requirements on banks after the financial crisis drove lending into more lightly regulated non-bank financial institutions. This was no bad thing in the sense that there were helpful new sources of credit for small- and medium-sized companies. But the related risks are harder to track.

According to Palladino and Karlewicz, private credit funds pose a unique set of potential systemic risks to the broader financial system because of their interrelationship with the regulated banking sector, the opacity of the terms of loans, the illiquid nature of the loans and potential maturity mismatches with the needs of limited partners (investors) to withdraw funds.

For its part, the IMF has argued that the rapid growth of private credit, coupled with increasing competition from banks on large deals and pressure to deploy capital, may lead to a deterioration in pricing and non-pricing terms, including lower underwriting standards and weakened covenants, raising the risk of credit losses in the future. No prizes for guessing where the next financial crisis will emerge from.

Barrons : Networking Companies Ride the AI Wave. It Isn’t Just Nvidia.

Networking Companies Ride the AI Wave. It Isn’t Just Nvidia.
The most powerful artificial-intelligence systems need a network to work their wonders. That’s a plus for Broadcom, Marvell, and others.

It takes a network to unleash the powers of artificial intelligence, and companies that supply these networks are seeing their stocks soar.

AI systems have gotten smarter as they have scaled up from a few Nvidia processors to thousands of chips. The recently unveiled Colossus AI supercomputer of Elon Musk’s xAI has 100,000 processors. Million-chip clusters are on drawing boards.

Nvidia processors are the most valuable parts of these factory-size AI systems, and that’s why Nvidia is one of the world’s most valuable companies. To put 100,000 processors to work on a single AI computing task, however, you need network technology that is as advanced as the processors themselves.

The basic computing element in AI isn’t a processor, but a data center, notes Nvidia networking chief Gilad Shainer. So, a growing portion of the billions spent on AI data centers will go to the suppliers of network chips, lasers, and switches that integrate thousands of processors into a single computer. Nvidia supplies that network infrastructure itself, but so do Broadcom, Cisco Systems, Arista Networks, Marvell Technology, and others.

AI can’t advance without advanced networks, says Shainer. “The network is the most important element because it determines the way the data center will behave.”

Shares of Broadcom leapt 40% in December after the networking company detailed its expanding opportunities in AI on its earnings call. Network chips now account for just 5% to 10% of all AI chip spending, said Broadcom CEO Hock Tan. But as the size of AI systems hits 500,000 or a million processors, Tan expects that networking will become 15% to 20% of a data center’s chip budget. A data center with a million or more processors will cost $100 billion to build.

Shares of Arista and Marvell also enjoyed big moves in 2024, as investors woke up to their opportunities in AI. None of the AI networkers remains a cheap stock, but they will be important ones in the AI industrial revolution.

The firms building the biggest AI clusters are called hyperscalers, and they are led by Alphabet’s Google, Amazon.com, Facebook-parent Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. Not far behind are Oracle, xAI, Alibaba Group Holding, and ByteDance. Capital spending by the hyperscalers rose more than 50% in 2024’s third quarter, to an annualized level above $200 billion. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI spending will rise another 35% to 40% in 2025.

AI architectures began scaling in recent years for two reasons. Processor chips from the likes of Intel neared the end of speed gains made possible by shrinking a chip’s transistors. Then, computer scientists at companies such as Google and OpenAI built AI models that performed amazing feats by finding connections within large volumes of training material. As the components of these “large language models” grew to millions, billions, and then trillions, they began translating languages, doing college homework, handling customer support, and designing cancer drugs.

But training an AI model is a huge task, as it calculates across billions of data points, rolls those results into new calculations, then repeats. Even with Nvidia accelerator chips to speed up those calculations, the workload has to be distributed across thousands of Nvidia processors and run for weeks.

To keep up with the distributed computing challenge, AI data centers have two networks. The “front end” network takes in data and communicates with the system’s users—like the networks of every enterprise data center or cloud-computing center.

What is new is a “back end” network that connects every AI processor and memory chip with every other processor. “It’s just a supercomputer made of many small processors,” says Ram Velaga, Broadcom’s chief of core switching. “All of these processors have to talk to each other as if they are directly connected.”

AI’s back-end networks need high bandwidth switches and network connections. Delays and congestion are expensive when each Nvidia compute node costs as much as $400,000. Idle processors waste money.

Back-end networks carry huge volumes of data. When thousands of processors are exchanging results, the data crossing one of these networks in a second can equal all the internet traffic in America.

That’s how Nvidia became one of today’s largest vendors of network gear. CEO Jensen Huang and his colleagues realized early on that AI workloads would exceed a single box. They started using InfiniBand, a network designed for scientific supercomputers, which was supplied by a company called Mellanox. InfiniBand became the standard for AI back-end networks.

Nvidia acquired Mellanox in 2020 for $6.9 billion. While most AI dollars still go to Nvidia accelerator chips, back-end networks are important enough that Nvidia has large networking sales. In 2024’s September quarter, those network sales grew 20%, to $3.1 billion.

Yet there’s a challenge to InfiniBand’s lock on AI networks and, perhaps, to Nvidia’s. It comes from Ethernet, the network standard that’s used for everything outside of AI back-ends, including the internet.

Ethernet lacks InfiniBand’s tools for memory and traffic management, but those are now being added in a version called Ultra Ethernet. Hyperscalers think Ethernet will outperform InfiniBand, as clusters scale to hundreds of thousands of processors. Another attraction is that Ethernet boasts many competing suppliers.

“All the largest guys—with an exception of Microsoft—have moved over to Ethernet,” says a network industry executive. “And even Microsoft has said that by summer of 2025, they’ll move over to Ethernet, too.”

Nvidia may be known for InfiniBand, but it sells Ethernet, as well. xAI uses Nvidia Ethernet products in its record-size Colossus system.

Ethernet back-end networks offer a big opportunity for Arista Networks, which builds switches using Broadcom chips. In the past two years, AI data centers became an important business for Arista.

AI provides sales to Arista switch rivals Cisco and Juniper Networks (soon to be a part of Hewlett Packard Enterprise), but those companies aren’t as established among hyperscalers. Analysts expect Arista to get more than $1 billion from AI sales in 2025 and predict that the total market for back-end switches could reach $15 billion in a few years. Three of the five big hyperscale operators are using Arista Ethernet switches in back-end networks, and the other two are testing them. Arista CEO Jayshree Ullal says that back-end network sales seem to pull along more orders for front-end gear, too.

The network chips used for AI switching are feats of engineering that rival AI processor chips. Cisco makes its own switching chips, but some 80% of the chips used in other Ethernet switches comes from Broadcom, with the rest supplied mainly by Marvell. These switch chips now move 51 terabits of data a second; it’s the same amount of data that a person would consume by watching videos for 200 days straight. In 2025, switching speeds will double.

The other important parts of a network are connections between computing nodes and cables. As the processor count rises, connections increase at a faster rate. A 25,000-processor cluster needs 75,000 interconnects. A million processors will need 10 million interconnects.

More of those connections will be fiberoptic, instead of copper.

AI processing chips exchange data at about 10 times the rate of a general-purpose processor chip. Copper has been the preferred conduit because it’s reliable and requires no extra power. At current network speeds, copper works well at lengths of up to five meters. So, hyperscalers have tried to “scale-up” within copper’s reach by packing as many processors as they can within each shelf, and rack of shelves.

But as networks speed up, copper’s reach shrinks. So, expanding clusters have to “scale-out” by linking their racks with optics. “Once you move beyond a few tens of thousand, or 100,000, processors, you cannot connect anything with copper—you have to connect them with optics,” Velaga says.

Back-end connections now run at 400 gigabits per second, which is equal to a day and half of video viewing. Broadcom’s Velaga says network speeds will rise to 800 gigabits in 2025, and 1.6 terabits in 2026.

Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell sell optical interface products, with Marvell enjoying a strong lead in 800-gigabit interconnects. A number of companies supply lasers for optical interconnects, including Coherent, Lumentum Holdings, Applied Optoelectronics, and Chinese vendors Innolight and Eoptolink. They will all battle for the AI data center over the next few years.

The opportunity for optical connections reaches beyond the AI data center. That’s because there isn’t enough power.

A 500,000-processor cluster needs at least 750 megawatts, enough to power 500,000 homes. When AI models scale to a million or more processors, they will require gigawatts of power and have to span more than one physical data center, says Velaga.

In September, Marvell, Lumentum, and Coherent demonstrated optical links for data centers as far apart as 300 miles. Nvidia’s next-generation networks will be ready to run a single AI workload across remote locations.

Some investors worry that AI performance will stop improving as processor counts scale. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang dismissed those concerns on his last conference call, saying that clusters of 100,000 processors or more will just be the table stakes with Nvidia’s next generation of chips.

And for that, Broadcom’s Velaga says he is grateful: “Jensen has created this massive opportunity for all of us.”

Barrons : European Stocks Fire Sale: 10 Bargains You Don’t Want to Miss

European Stocks Fire Sale: 10 Bargains You Don’t Want to Miss
BNP Paribas, Richemont, and BMW are among the companies trading at deep discounts.

The holiday season is over and now it’s time to go bargain hunting. For investors, there’s no better place to look than Europe.

Europe isn’t a popular place among investors right now. While U.S. stocks have been soaring, the Vanguard FTSE Europe exchange-traded fund, a leading European ETF, returned just 2% in 2024 including reinvested dividends.

It has gotten so bad that U.S. fund manager Bill Smead of the Smead Value fund found on a recent trip to Europe that all investors there wanted to talk about was the S&P 500 index, which returned 25% in 2024. Europe now seems irrelevant.

It shouldn’t. Despite, or because of, its underperformance, Europe offers actual bargains. The continent’s stocks, at 13 times 12-month forward earnings, trade at record valuation discounts versus the U.S., where the S&P 500 fetches 22 times.

“There is a massive valuation differential,” says David Herro, a manager of the Oakmark International fund. “I’ve never seen such a spread between international stocks and the U.S.” Herro has been managing the fund since 1992.

Some of the valuation gap is deserved. In November, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that the Stoxx Europe 600 index should have “modest” earnings growth of 3% to 4% in 2025, leading to “positive but low returns” for European stocks. The S&P 500 earnings growth is seen at 12% this year. Europe’s markets have little exposure to technology stocks and their high growth. The biggest European tech companies, software producer SAP and semiconductor equipment maker ASML Holding, weigh in at about a tenth the market value of Apple.

Yet, European stocks are also getting dinged for being European. Goldman Sachs analysts found that every sector of the continent’s market trades at a bigger discount to the U.S. than it historically has. The European energy sector, which trades at about a 50% discount to the U.S., is particularly severe. The leading European oil stock, Shell, now trades eight times 2025 earnings, while Exxon Mobil is at nearly 14 times.

Some might just see this as another example of American exceptionalism. Why invest in Europe when European stock returns have been forgettable at 5% annually over the past decade, versus 13% annually for the S&P 500. What’s more, European markets are dwarfed by the U.S., which accounts for about 65% of the global market value, according to MSCI data. Nvidia, which is valued at $3.3 trillion, is equal in size to the entire U.K. stock market and larger than the main German stock index, the 40-stock DAX, at around $2 trillion.

Herro sees it differently. He views depressed European stocks as a coiled spring that could “explode” to the upside if they ever start to close the valuation gap. Consider BNP Paribas, one of Europe’s largest banks. It has $2.6 trillion in assets against JPMorgan Chase’s $4 trillion, and its normalized return on equity of 11% to 12% isn’t much less than JPMorgan’s at 14% to 15%, Herro says. Yet, BNP is valued at $70 billion, a tenth of JPMorgan’s market cap, and trades for just six times projected 2025 earnings and for 60% of book value against JPMorgan’s 14 times and two times. It also has liquid U.S.-traded shares, as do all the European stocks listed in this article.

Herro is also partial to luxury goods companies Kering, which owns Gucci, Richemont, the parent of Cartier, and Swatch Group, noting that they have “derated” and now trade for 15 to 20 times projected 2025 earnings. He sees a bottoming in the agricultural cycle that should help stocks like chemical company Bayer and farm-equipment manufacturer CNH Industrial. Depressed liquor producers Diageo and Pernod Ricard also look attractive, Herro says.

The European auto industry has rarely been more disliked by investors due to tough continental electric-vehicle mandates, declining profits from China, and Tesla’s lead in autonomous driving. But cash- and asset-rich BMW and Mercedes-Benz Group now trade for six times forward earnings.

Matthew Fine, portfolio manager of the Third Avenue Value Fund, favors both. BMW is valued at $50 billion and sits on about $10 billion in net cash at its core automotive business. It’s also been successful with its battery electric vehicles, with its Neue Klasse EVs growing faster than Tesla, admittedly off a much smaller base. “BMW is not in secular decline and it’s not in financial distress,” Fine says.

Mercedes, he says, has been less successful in the EV space but is a very cheap stock. Valued at $60 billion, it has nearly $30 billion of net cash and equivalents at its core auto operations, a stake in its truck business worth another $10 billion, and owns a finance business with a book value of $17 billion. Investors are effectively paying little for the core car business.

The risk in Europe is that it turns into a “vast open-air museum,” to quote the late Blackstone strategist Byron Wien. But with European stocks getting written off by global investors, it may be time to buy.

Barrons : Best Income Ideas for 2025: Stocks, Bonds, and Everything in Between

Best Income Ideas for 2025: Stocks, Bonds, and Everything in Between
From foreign stocks to preferreds, we rank the best places for investors to find yield this year.

Bonds took a back seat to stocks in 2024, but income investors still found ways to get paid. The same should be true in 2025.

Taking some risk paid off last year. While long-dated Treasuries had flat to negative returns, and municipal bonds and broad high-grade bond indexes returned closer to 2%, junk bonds, convertibles, and preferred stock generated mid-single to low-double digit returns.

Among stocks, energy pipeline companies were a standout as they emerged as data-center plays, given that they transport the natural gas to produce the electricity needed to power them. Electric utilities also had a strong year as artificial-intelligence plays, keeping up with the S&P 500 index’s 23% rise. The broad Vanguard High Dividend Yield exchange-traded fund, led by megacap dividend payers like JPMorgan Chase and Exxon Mobil, returned a respectable 17%.

Looking ahead to 2025, there is still plenty of yield to be found in stocks and bonds. In fixed-income markets, investors can get 3% to 5% yields on munis, 7% or more on junk debt, 5% to 7% yields on preferred stock, 2% on convertibles, and 4%-plus on Treasuries of varying maturities. That might not be as exciting as those available in private credit—or loans with double-digit yields to private companies, many of them the target of leveraged buyouts—but that area is getting very crowded, and returns may not match those in recent years.

Whitney Watson, co-chief investment officer of fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, likes lower-quality investment-grade bonds and higher-quality junk in the 5% to 7% area. “Public fixed income offers attractive income potential in 2025,” she says.

Investors can receive 3%-plus yields on a range of stocks, even though the S&P 500 yields just 1.3%. Pipeline stocks yield 4% to 6%, real estate investment trusts and electric utilities yield 3% to 4%, and out-of-favor drug stocks, 4% or more. Telecom stocks have some of the highest dividends in the S&P 500, with Verizon Communications yielding over 6%.

The Federal Reserve is a wild card for 2025. The current federal-funds rate is 4.25%-4.5%, and investors now expect two rate cuts totaling half a percentage point, but there could be more or potentially no action depending on the direction of the economy and inflation. That has us staying the course. Barron’s favored stocks over other assets for income over the past few years in our annual outlooks, and we’re sticking to that view this year. International stocks often yielding 4% or more could be a standout in 2025 after a long period of lagging behind U.S. stocks. Electric utilities and energy pipelines are still appealing even after sizable gains in 2024.

U.S. Treasuries could be worth a look after a tough 2024 for intermediate to long-term bonds. The yield on the benchmark 10-year rose more than half a percentage point to 4.5% in 2024. U.S. mortgage securities yielding close to 6% are an underappreciated high-quality investment. And don’t forget cash: Treasury bills and money-market funds still are yielding over 4%, comfortably above the inflation rate of close to 3%.

No matter what kind of investor you are, there are still plenty of opportunities. As Barron’s does annually, we rank 12 sectors below in order of our assessment of their 2025 appeal. We had a good record in 2024, ranking U.S. dividend stocks, pipelines, and utilities at the top of our list and Treasuries at the bottom (see table of returns), though we were too bullish on international stocks. Here’s where to find income now.

Foreign Dividend Stocks
After another poor year for international markets relative to the S&P 500, investors can find a lot of yield overseas. Even the broad iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, which tracks developed markets outside the U.S., yields about 3%.

Dividend-oriented overseas ETFs offer even more yield. The iShares International Select Dividend and Schwab International Dividend Equity ETFs yield around 6%, about double the yield on U.S. dividend-oriented ETFs.

The United Kingdom is a particularly rich source of income—and its dividends are exempt from withholding taxes widely imposed by other countries. The iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF has a dividend over 4%, while big British companies like Shell, HSBC, and GSK yield 4%, and BP yields 6%. Diversified U.K.-based miner Rio Tinto is trading at a 52-week low on weakness in iron-ore prices, and yields 6%.

One drawback: Non-U.S. companies often pay annual or semiannual dividends that don’t have the predictability of quarterly U.S. payments.

U.S. Dividend Stocks
Investors don’t have to look hard to find 3%-plus yields in the U.S. after most industry groups underperformed the S&P 500 last year.
Healthcare stocks look appealing after two poor years relative to the overall market. Merck and Johnson & Johnson yield over 3%, while former pharmaceutical leader Pfizer sports a dividend of more than 6%. Energy stocks sold off in December, and the result is that Exxon Mobil and Chevron yield almost 4% and 4.5%, respectively. Food stocks like Kraft Heinz yield 4% or more, while PepsiCo yields 3.5% after two straight years of stock-price losses.

Among the many dividend-oriented mutual funds and ETFs are Vanguard High Dividend Yield and Schwab US Dividend Equity, which both yield over 3%. The more-concentrated Schwab fund’s biggest holdings include BlackRock, Home Depot, and Cisco Systems.

The laggard ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF returned just 7% in 2024. It tracks companies with records of raising dividends for at least 25 years, including Emerson Electric, Walmart, and Cincinnati Financial. That approach historically has proved to be profitable and could return to form in 2025.


Real Estate Investment Trusts
On the surface, REITs had a tough 2024. The Vanguard Real Estate ETF returned just 4% in 2024, but that masked a wide disparity in returns across real estate sectors.

Apartment REITs had midteens returns, while the formerly hot warehouse operators declined by a similar amount. New York office owners such as SL Green Realty and mall operators like Simon Property Group were standouts in 2024.

The setup for 2025 looks favorable, with REITs yielding about 4% on average and the stocks trading for about 22 times adjusted funds from operations, in line with historical averages.

Jason Yablon, the head of listed real estate at Cohen & Steers, tells Barron’s that favorable supply/demand fundamentals should support the REIT market in 2025. Higher construction costs provide an umbrella for property owners to raise rents. One negative is the relatively tight spreads of real estate cap rates—effectively, the yields on property—versus Treasuries.

Cohen & Steers favors data centers, cellphone towers, single-family residential, and senior housing for 2025, all of which have demand tailwinds. The Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty closed-end fund yields 8%.

Piper Sandler analyst Alex Goldfarb is also bullish. “Occupancies are healthy, economic growth positive, new supply declining, and lenders not eager to foreclose, which combined with Trump’s victory, create an apparent euphoric atmosphere,” he writes.

Energy Pipelines
There is no AI without electricity. And much of that juice will come from natural gas, which is transported by pipeline operators like Kinder Morgan and Williams Cos.

That story powered the pipeline sector as the broad Alerian Midstream Energy index gained over 40% last year, doubling the 20% gain from the Alerian MLP ETF, which has less gas exposure.

Rob Thummel, a senior portfolio manager at Tortoise EcoFin, sees total return potential of 12%-plus in 2025 supported by dividend growth of 5% to 7% and a return to higher valuation levels. The average stock yields 5%, with high yielders like Energy Transfer and Enterprise Products Partners at about 6.5%.

The pipeline sector has largely decoupled from the rest of the energy industry as the electricity demand growth story has taken hold. “Compelling relative and absolute valuations mean you haven’t missed it despite the recent outperformance,” Thummel tells Barron’s.

The Tortoise Energy Infrastructure closed-end fund yields 10%, in part due to leverage, and trades at a 10% discount to net asset value. Its largest investments include gas-focused Williams and Targa Resources. The Alerian MLP ETF yields 8%.

Electric Utilities
The sleepy sector came to life in 2024. Normally considered a defensive income play, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF nearly matched the return of the S&P 500 as utilities, led by independent powers like Constellation Energy, capitalized on the huge power needs of data centers constructed by Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and other tech giants.

As Barron’s argued recently, some regulated utilities also stand to benefit. Jay Rhame, CEO of Reaves Asset Management, favors “vertically integrated utilities with access to power, transmission, and natural gas, and [which] are located in business-friendly regulatory jurisdictions.” These include Entergy, NiSource, and Xcel Energy.

Yet most utilities still offer decent payouts, with the biggest, including Southern Co. and Duke Energy, yielding 3.5% or more, above the 3% yield on the Utilities Select Sector SPDR.

Utility stocks generally trade for high-teens price/earnings multiples of projected 2025 earnings. Profit growth is expected to be in the 5% to 7% annual range in the coming years, with data-center-exposed utilities like Entergy expected to better that. Dividends should rise at a similar clip. For those willing to tolerate more risk, there is the Virtus Reaves Utilities ETF, with a focus on the independent power producers like Constellation, which rose 91% last year, and Vistra, which gained more than 200% in 2024. The growthier Virtus ETF yields just 1.7%.

Mortgage Securities
This often-overlooked area offers a combination of high credit quality and attractive yields in the 5% to 6% range. Much of the market consists of so-called agency mortgage securities issued by Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac that carry little to no credit risk.

Mortgage securities are one of the few areas of taxable bond markets in which yield spreads versus Treasuries are appealing relative to history. The yield gap between mortgage securities and U.S. Treasuries is about 1.25 percentage points, which looks appealing relative to high-grade corporate bonds at less than a point, says Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management.

Mortgage issues have complex cash flows and are difficult for do-it-yourself investors to negotiate. Big funds include the iShares MBS ETF, which mainly holds below-market MBS with 3% rates. Another choice is the Simplify MBS ETF, which owns higher-rate securities and yields nearly 6%.

There is also a large market in so-called nonagency mortgage securities, whose credit quality has been enhanced by the huge amounts of equity in U.S. homes after years of price appreciation. The $30 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond fund has expertise in this sector. Run by longtime MBS manager Jeffrey Gundlach, it yields about 6%.

Treasuries
Treasuries were one of the few parts of the bond market with some negative returns in 2024—and that could be a good setup for investors in 2025.

Long-term debt was hit particularly hard last year, with the widely followed ETF posting a negative 8% return as yields rose, causing bond prices to fall.

The good news: Treasuries now offer nice yields, with long-term bonds yielding almost 4.75%. Long-term Treasuries could return 20% if yields fall back to 4%. Plus, there is an exemption of interest from state and local taxes, a nice benefit for investors in high-tax states like New York and California holding bonds in taxable accounts. Risks include big federal deficits and a potential uptick in inflation, but Treasuries still offer sleep-at-night security and a potential hedge if the economy unexpectedly weakens in 2025.

Investors can buy Treasuries directly on the TreasuryDirect website and via brokers, but low-cost ETFs offer a good alternative due to low fees, monthly income, and liquidity. IShares offers a group of ETFs such as iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond, iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond, and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond, which should work no matter what maturity an investor is looking for.

Junk Bonds
Junk bonds returned roughly 8% in 2024 based on a key ICE BofA index, after a 13% gain in 2023. Not bad. Unfortunately, the yield premium relative to Treasuries is near the tightest level in 20 years on economic optimism, low default rates, and high demand for yield. The average junk bond yields about 7% now.

Kevin Loome, manager of the T. Rowe Price US High Yield fund, thinks tight spreads—now in the 2.5% to 3% range relative to Treasuries—could persist “given supportive fundamentals,” notably low defaults and buying by yield-focused investors. But most of the return—he sees similar gains to last year—will have to come from the yield, “given tight spreads levels and limited room for capital appreciation,” he says. The fund’s top holdings include bonds from Six Flags Entertainment and pipeline operator Enbridge.

The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF—one of the largest dedicated to the asset class, with $15 billion under management—yields almost 7%. Its largest holding is Charter Communications debt. Closed-end junk and high-yield loan funds carry higher yields due in part to leverage. The BlackRock Corporate High Yield and Nuveen Floating Rate Income funds yield over 9% and trade close to their NAVs.

Convertibles
The stock/bond hybrids returned about 10% in 2024, in line with small-to mid-cap equity indexes, whose constituents make up most of the $280 billion market.

A standout was MicroStrategy, the big Bitcoin holder, which is the largest convertible issuer at nearly 5% of the market. Its stock rose over 300% and was the biggest contributor to the convertible market’s return.

Michael Youngworth, head of convertibles strategy at BofA Securities, sees a 7% to 9% total return for the market and some $60 billion to $65 billion of issuance during 2025.

There isn’t a lot of yield in convertibles, though. The largest ETF, SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities, yields about 2%, while MicroStrategy has sold converts with zero yields. That means most returns will probably have to come from appreciation of the underlying equities.

Municipals
Municipal bonds remain a favorite of individual investors due to tax benefits. But not all munis are created equal.

With yields tight relative to Treasuries, triple-A municipal bonds with maturities of 10 years or less offer little appeal for investors in all but the highest federal tax brackets. There are better values among long-term munis, with bonds from such high-quality issuers as the Los Angeles International airport and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey yielding 4% to 4.5%.

One hot area in the $4 trillion muni market is the high-yield sector. Returns in 2024 were in the double digits for funds like First Eagle High Yield Municipal, against less than 2% for the $41 billion iShares National Muni Bond ETF.

John Miller, who heads the First Eagle fund, says the average yield on high-yield munis fell to about 5.5% from 6% over the past 12 months. High-yield state tobacco bonds, he says, have been hurt by sharp declines in smoking. He favors debt from issuers such as Brightline, which has built a passenger railroad in between Miami and Orlando, Fla. It recently issued a 10% tax-exempt bond.

For more risk-averse investors, funds like the $77 billion Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt now yield about 3.3%.

Cash
Treasury bills—U.S. government securities maturing in a year or less—are an excellent place to stash cash and offer an alternative to money-market funds and certificates of deposit. They are one of Warren Buffett’s favorite investments, with Berkshire Hathaway
holding over $200 billion. T-bills, which track changes in short rates administered by the Federal Reserve, now yield about 4.25%.

Investors had been expecting that T-bill yields would fall sharply in 2025, but with the Fed potentially on hold for the next few months, they could stay high for longer than expected. Like other Treasuries, they can be bought via the Treasury’s website, brokers, and liquid ETFs. Two of the most popular are the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond and SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETFs, both now yielding 4.4%.

Preferred Stocks
Considering the rise in long Treasury yields in 2024, preferred stock performed well. This year might not be as easy.

Preferred stock typically has no maturity date, making the securities often act like super-long bonds. Last year’s rising T-bond yields should have been problematic—the market got crunched in 2022, when Treasury rates surged—but the iShares Preferred & Income Securities ETF, the largest dedicated to the class, returned 7% in 2024. Like junk bonds, the yield gap between preferreds and Treasuries tightened in 2024, particularly on $25 par preferreds popular with retail investors due to the liquidity of New York Stock Exchange listings.

Banks are the largest preferred issuers, and $25 par issues from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley yield in the 5.5% to 6% range, about a point more than 30-year Treasuries. Better values are in $1,000 preferreds, which trade over the counter like bonds and are harder for retail investors to access. Citigroup, for instance, has a 6.75% issue trading around par, or its original offering price of 100 cents on the dollar. Preferred dividends generally are taxed favorably, like on common stocks.

The iShares preferred ETF holds many $25 par issues, while the First Trust Institutional Preferred Securities & Income ETF focuses on the $1,000 market. Both yield about 6%.

BofA analyst Michael Youngworth tells Barron’s that the lack of new issues bolstered the market in 2024. Supply constraints could loosen in 2025, however, as banks issue preferreds to align with potentially less onerous international capital rules.

>>> Weekly Market Update: New Year, same market

Volatility rose amid relatively thin year-end trading this week. US stock markets opened 2025 pulling back further from the selling seeing in late December. The NASDAQ remained heavy as traders rotated away from some of 2024’s equity darlings into fixed income and other areas. The US dollar remained strong with the Euro dipping below 1.03 for first time since late 2022. Equity price action improved into Friday as US Treasury yields stabilized after the December ISM manufacturing and prices paid topped estimates. Also on Friday, Republicans in the House passed their first test of their ability to govern, reelecting Mike Johnson as Speaker of the House in the second round of voting. Natural gas prices surged early in the week ahead of a polar vortex forecasted to hit the eastern half of the US, but prices backed off later on into weekly inventory readings. Separately, China economic readings remained disappointing. Chinese 10 and 30-year bond yields fell to fresh record lows along with the Yuan while PBOC officials vowed to cut both bank reserves and rates in 2025 as part of a “policy overhaul”. Stocks slid in the first part of the week, leading to a 0.5% decline in S&P and Nasdaq, while the DJIA fell 0.6% over the four day week.

On Monday Boeing shares dove as much as 5% following Sunday’s crash of a 737 in which a landing gear issue may have been a contributing factor. Tesla reported record Q4 delivery numbers, but they still fell far short of expectations, and annual deliveries fell for first time since 2011 and came in below Wall Street estimates, weighing on shares. The US Surgeon General reportedly plans on adding a cancer warning to alcohol labels resulting pockets of discretionary weakness on Friday. In M&A news, the Nippon/US Steel deal was officially blocked by the White House after CFIUS was unable to reach a consensus decision. Also Getty and Shutterstock saw share surge on a report that they are contemplating a merger.


MON 12-30
(AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: v 83.9 prior [last reading from 2 weeks ago]
(BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
(CH) Swiss weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 445.7B v 456.5B prior
(CN) CHINA DEC MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 50.1 V 50.2E (3rd month of expansion)
(ES) SPAIN DEC PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.8% V 2.6%E (highest since July)
(EU) European Economic Schedule for Mon, Dec 30th 2024
(EU) European Economic Schedule for Mon, Dec 30th 2024
(IL) Israel reportedly preparing to fight on a new front against Houthi militants in Yemen; Israeli official says Houthis “are more technologically advanced than perceived by many” and should not be “underrated” - WaPo (update)
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Dec 21st 523.9K total units, +7.8% y/y (update)
(US) Citi End-Dec Economic Surprise Index drops to 3.2 v 30.0 m/m (lowest since Sept and down from 43.3 just five weeks ago)
(US) US Treasury: Notified on Dec 8th that workstations were hacked in cyberattack by China – press
(US) US Treasury: Notified on Dec 8th that workstations were hacked in cyberattack by China – press
(US) DEC DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: 3.4 V -3.0E
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Dec 21st 523.9K total units, +7.8% y/y (update)
(US) NOV PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 2.2% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 5.6% v 7.9%E
ATHR Files to sell 1.8M IPO shares at $4.00-5.00/shr – filing
IONQ IonQ and Oak Ridge National Laboratory unveil novel approach to scalable Quantum computing, note step forward in scaling quantum computing systems for practical commercial applications; Enables near-optimal and optimal solutions for complex combinatorial optimization problems on IonQ's commercially available hardware; IonQ and ORNL were able to reduce the number of two-qubit gates by over 85% for a 28 qubit problem compared to a QAOA (Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm) solution

TUES 12-31
(RU) Russian gas exports via Ukraine to halt on Jan 1st, as expected [Transit nomination point at Sudzha, Ukraine, received no nominations as of 3:00pm GMT; Usually receives next-day nominations of ~42M cubic meters]
BABA Alibaba Cloud cuts LLM prices by >80% to ¥0.0015 per 1,000 tokens (lowest rate in industry)
MAERSKB.DK Exec: Sees no progress on US port strike talks; Urges removal of cargo - press interview
X Reportedly Nippon Steel offered new proposal to White House on US Steel deal; To give US veto over US steel capacity cuts, in last ditch attempt to have deal approved – press

WEDS 1-1
(CN) CHINA DEC CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 50.5 V 51.7E (3rd month of expansion)
(SG) SINGAPORE Q4 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: +0.1% V -0.8%E; Y/Y: 4.3% V 3.8%E
(US) Follow up: US Treasury Sanctions Office also reportedly hacked by China [timing of the hack is not certain] - Washington Post

THRS 1-2
(CN) China PBOC said to plan "policy overhaul" as pressure mounts on economy; cites comments from the PBOC; Would prioritise focus on adjusting interest rates over 'quantitative objectives' for loan growth, aligning with the Western central banks - FT
(CN) China Securities Regulator (CSRC) denies earlier rumors and vows to fight against stock market rumors – press
(US) Outgoing Pres Biden discussed plans to strike Iran nuclear sites if Tehran sped nuclear goals to develop bomb – press
(EU) ECB's Stournaras (Greece): Sees rates falling to ~2% around autumn 2025 - press interview [**Note: implies four 25bps rate cuts v current deposit rate of 3.00%]
(IT) ITALY DEC MANUFACTURING PMI: 46.2 V 45.0E (9th month of contraction); Notes the pace of job shedding was the second-fastest since July 2020
(US) DOE CRUDE: -1.18M V -2.4ME; GASOLINE: +7.72M V -0.3ME; DISTILLATE: +6.41M V +0.1ME
(US) DEC FINAL S&P MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.4 V 48.3E
(US) Reportedly leaders from a US dockworkers’ union and the group that represents their employers are set to resume contract talks on next Tue, Jan 7th - press [**Note: in early Oct, United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) agreed to suspend strike and extend contract until Jan 15th 2025]
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 211K V 221KE (8-month low); CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.844M V 1.89ME
CART Announces multi-year partnership with Samsung that uses AI to replenish groceries
CEG Reaches >$1B deal with US govt to supply power to agencies; $840M for electricity supplies and $172M for energy services from April 2025
FUL Reports prelim FY24 adj $3.84 v $4.17e, Rev $3.57B v $3.58Be, cuts EBITDA $594M (prior $610-620M); Negative inflection seen late in Q4
STARLINK.IPO China's Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co, reportedly beats Starlink to hi-res space-ground laser transmission at 6G standard; China's commercial satellite company sets 100Gbps speed record; 10 times faster than its previous feat less than a year earlier – SCMP
TSLA Reports Q4 deliveries 495.6K v 512Ke, 462.9K q/q, (484.5K y/y); production 459.4K v 505Ke, -2.2% y/y (record deliveries)

FRI 1-3
(US) Two US House Republicans switch votes to support Speaker Johnson, giving him enough votes to retain the position in the 119th Congress
(US) DEC ISM MANUFACTURING: 49.3 V 48.2E
(US) WEEKLY EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: -116 BCF VS. -123 BCF TO -125 BCF INDICATED RANGE
(US) Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast forecasting Dec US CPI Y/Y (to be out on Jan 15th) to accelerate again to 2.9% from 2.7%; Then, forecasting Jan US CPI Y/Y (to be out next month) to stay roughly unchanged from Dec forecast at 2.9%
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q4 GDP forecast from 2.6% to 2.4%
(US) Citi Early Jan Economic Surprise Index drops to -0.5 v +30.0 m/m (lowest since early autumn and down from 43.3 just five weeks ago)
(DE) GERMANY DEC UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +10.0K V +15.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 6.1% V 6.2%E
(US) US Surgeon General calls for cancer warnings on alcohol labels
MSFT Expects to spend $80B on AI data centers in 2025 - blog post
GETY Getty said to explore merger with Shutterstock - press