OpenAI’s Next Departure, Amazon’s New Product—and 16 Other Things We Think Will Happen in 2025
Our complete predictions for the year ahead.
Amazon Will Launch Its Own Version of Ozempic
A yearslong shortage of Ozempic and Wegovy has prompted direct-to-consumer health companies like Hims & Hers and Sesame to start selling their own versions of the popular weight-loss drugs. (They’re compounded drugs, or custom-made knockoffs of expensive brand-new drugs.) Amazon could be next as it looks to grow its pharmacy business: It already lists Ozempic and Wegovy on its site, but most doses have been out of stock for months as part of the broader shortage—creating an opening for Amazon to sell its own version.
One potential hurdle: The FDA could stop companies from selling knockoffs of Ozempic and Wegovy if it determines the name-brand versions are no longer in short supply. But President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the FDA has been an executive at Sesame, which some investors have interpreted as an indication Trump will be friendlier toward makers of compound drugs.
And even if Amazon doesn’t begin selling its own version of Ozempic, it’ll find some other way to resolve the shortage in 2025. There’s nothing more embarrassing for The Everything Store than one of the world’s most-discussed products remaining out of stock.—Theo Wayt
An AI Agent Will Cause Chaos for a Blue-Chip Company
AI agents—bots that can handle complex, multipart actions such as booking a travel itinerary or arranging a product return—are starting to gain real traction in the business operations of tech giants like Microsoft and Salesforce. They’re already using AI agents to handle customer service interactions, among other tasks, and the agents are poised for wider adoption this year as these companies and rivals like Google, OpenAI and Anthropic all race to get customers using the technology.
But AI agents are still rough around the edges, and it’s entirely likely that a publicly traded company will suffer a malfunction involving one that causes enough damage to its business to require notifying the SEC with an official filing. One scenario could involve a hacker using a vulnerability in agent software to access sensitive corporate data. Another possibility: An attacker could tamper with agents at a company that uses them to manage a supply chain, delaying a new product’s development.—Kevin McLaughlin
Marc Lore’s Wonder Will Acquire FreshDirect or Gopuff
As Marc Lore’s latest act continues to unfold, his restaurant-delivery startup, Wonder, will make a deeper push into groceries by buying FreshDirect or Gopuff. It could even pick up both.
Lately, Wonder has attracted attention by acquiring a range of businesses that complement its core restaurant-delivery business. In 2024, for instance, it agreed to buy Grubhub and completed the purchase of Relay, a New York–based app that matches gig workers with deliveries. A year earlier, it purchased Blue Apron, the meal-kit company.
Another serious indicator that Wonder plans to expand to grocery delivery is Lore’s hiring of Tony Hoggett in October. Hoggett, now Wonder’s chief operating officer, had been running Amazon’s grocery strategy since 2022.
Purchasing Gopuff would give Wonder a series of existing warehouses that could help a grocery-delivery business really get rolling. And Gopuff’s investors may be keen to sell, given that the company burned $400 million in 2023 amid flat-lined growth. Fresh Direct is in a similar position, and its CEO, Sloan Eddleston, has ties with Lore: Eddleston was an early executive at Wonder and consulted for the company when it bought Blue Apron.—Ann Gehan and Theo Wayt
Tim Cook Will Extend His Apple Tenure for Another Half-Decade
With the Apple CEO’s current major stock grants set to expire in 2025, new grants could be on the horizon and are expected to align with the terms of a new contract. In a recent Wired interview, Tim Cook, 64, recently said he finds it hard to imagine life without Apple, insisting he still loves the job. Former Apple executives also note that Cook’s life is deeply intertwined with the company, and he has few interests other than his job at Apple: That means he’ll commit to leading Apple for at least another five years, extending his tenure through 2030.
Meanwhile, Apple’s John Ternus and Craig Federighi—the company’s hardware and software chiefs, respectively—are anticipated to take on expanded roles or additional responsibilities. Both are seen as strong contenders to succeed Cook in the future due to their seniority and relatively young ages.—Wayne Ma
College Athletes Will Become University Employees
In April, we will likely get a final resolution in the landmark House v. NCAA class-action suit, whose sprawling terms have been under review in California for over four years. The suit brought by two college athletes could see the governing body and five major conferences settle 10 years of revenue-sharing claims totaling $2.8 billion.
That resolution paves the way toward universities directly paying college athletes, reshaping the entire $14 billion college sports industry with dire effects on higher ed and pro leagues. Having to share lucrative media rights, ticketing and other revenue with athletes will force university athletic departments to revisit their budgets and eliminate smaller sports. Such a shift could potentially scatter the talent pool for pro leagues like the NFL and NBA as young stars increase their earning power at college and stay in school.—Sara Germano
A Buyout Wave Will Hit Consumer Companies
Several unprofitable retail and consumer companies are languishing on the public markets after the 2021 IPO boom, including ThredUp, a secondhand apparel site, and Grove Collaborative, an online natural products retailer. (Those stocks fell roughly 40% and 25%, respectively, in 2024.)
These hard times will lead to a buyout wave in 2025. Private equity firms and other investors have been sitting on massive amounts of cash as dealmaking has remained slow, and they’ll want to snap up these once-hot brands for cheap. We’ve already seen signs of this type of action: In December, private equity firm Story3 reportedly made a takeover offer for Figs, a direct-to-consumer maker of hospital scrubs. Before the report came out, Figs shares had fallen more than 20% in 2024.
Buyers will likely want to target companies that have made headway on cutting their costs but have yet to achieve a return to consistent sales growth, like Olaplex or Peloton. For example, Peloton said it had reduced its operating expenses 30% from a year earlier in the September quarter, and after years of decline, its revenues appear to have plateaued.
For brands that aren’t profitable and that have also seen their sales decline dramatically, like Allbirds, selling to a brand licensing firm such as Authentic Brands Group might make the most sense. These licensing firms acquire the rights to a brand but use contract manufacturers and wholesalers to manage production and operations.—A.G.
AI Chatbot Companies Will Face Hundreds of Lawsuits
Purveyors of AI chatbot companions have seen a surge of user interest over the last several years, generating eye-popping valuations and, in the case of Character AI, lucrative quasi-acquisition deals with companies like Google.
But attention begets scrutiny, which in turn often begets litigation. In recent months, Character.ai has been hit with two high-profile lawsuits alleging that the company negligently designed its boundary-pushing companion chatbots and that they harm young users’ mental health and well-being.
Concerns over the potentially harmful effects of these chatbots on children will reach a fever pitch in 2025, resulting in the filing of hundreds of lawsuits against companies like Character.ai, Replika and PolyBuzz.
Similar to the wave of social media addiction lawsuits tech giants like Meta Platforms and ByteDance have recently faced, these chatbot suits will likely eventually be lumped together and decided in drawn-out megacases.—Paris Martineau
Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins Will Leave
Chuck Robbins hasn’t done a bad job in his nine-plus years helming venerable Cisco, which celebrated its 40th anniversary in early December. But Cisco is no longer the dominant force it once was. Sales have been declining, and one reason is that rival Arista Networks has been steadily eating into Cisco’s share of the market for networking switches—its largest single business—which connect PCs and servers in corporate networks.
On another front, Cisco still trails Palo Alto Networks in certain market segments, like network security devices. That’s a big reason why Robbins spent $28 billion to buy cybersecurity firm Splunk, the largest purchase in Cisco’s history. Even so, Robbins hasn’t managed to make Cisco meaningfully less reliant on networking hardware, despite moves like the Splunk purchase.
Analysts are expecting Cisco to start growing again in the new fiscal year, but they don’t see a boom ahead: They’re projecting growth of between 4% and 5% in the next two fiscal years, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Given the mounting pressure and his long tenure, Robbins, who joined Cisco in 1997 as a sales account manager, will step down in 2025. He’ll pick Gary Steele—Splunk’s top leader before Cisco promoted him in May to lead its sales and marketing teams—as his replacement.
What will Robbins do next? It wouldn’t be surprising if Robbins, a gregarious fellow, left the tech industry and got into politics, said two former Cisco executives who have worked with him.—K.M.
Josh Kushner Will Buy New York Magazine
In 2024, Josh Kushner made a number of eye-catching deals: He bought the rights to Life magazine, and his Thrive Capital invested in A24, the studio with a mantel full of Oscar gold from films like “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Clearly, Kushner has an interest in being more of a media mogul, and as a liberal New Yorker, I’m sure he deeply appreciates the high-quality journalism that New York magazine continues to publish. In fact, I bet it will be his next acquisition: The publication would be an irresistible trophy asset for someone like Kushner, and its parent company, Vox Media, isn’t in the best financial health, which will encourage Vox to sell off what I imagine is an expensive loss leader.—Abram Brown
OpenAI’s Chief Operating Officer, Brad Lightcap, Will Depart
2024 saw a series of big leadership changes at OpenAI. The startup hired a chief financial officer, Sarah Friar, Nextdoor’s former CEO, and a chief product officer, Kevin Weil, Facebook’s former vice president of product. At the same time, several folks exited, including Mira Murati, who had been the startup’s chief technology officer.
The revolving door at OpenAI will likely keep spinning in 2025 as the company looks to fill its leadership ranks with more experienced executives from public companies and later-stage startups. Here’s another departure I expect: Brad Lightcap, the chief operating officer who’s been at OpenAI since 2018. Until last year, Lightcap managed the startup’s finance and sales teams, but those organizations have since been taken over by Friar and Giancarlo Lionetti, OpenAI’s chief commercial officer, who also joined the company in 2024. More recently, Lightcap has been spending more time in the company’s research and product organizations.—Stephanie Palazzolo
Conservative-Favorite Industries Will Be Funding Hot Spots
As the era of woke investing recedes, sectors the political right has championed in recent years will attract more capital in 2025—and increasingly more of it from mainstream sources. Defense tech and cryptocurrency are a couple of the most obvious areas. Ed tech startups could see a boost, too, as more such firms work on creating schools and other tools for homeschooling and alternatives to public schools and traditional private institutions. Parts of biotech will likely see a boom, too, including ones interested in longevity research and fertility—with birth rates and procreation a top concern for Elon Musk and other tech leaders close to the administration.—Julia Black
Microsoft Will Stave Off the FTC’s Current Investigation
During the past four years, Microsoft has been a target for Lina Khan, the Joe Biden–appointed FTC chair, and she has recently been escalating a sprawling antitrust investigation into Microsoft that touches on everything from its software licensing practices to its AI deals. But Trump intends to replace Khan with Republican FTC commissioner Andrew Ferguson, who has said he would take a more business-friendly approach than Khan.
Yes, Ferguson has signaled a willingness to go after big tech companies, but mostly as a way to do battle in the culture wars. He has accused Google and Meta of censoring conservative opinions, for example, while he hasn’t targeted Microsoft as much. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s politically neutral stance and chummy relationship with senior Republicans in Washington are likely to make it an unappealing target for the FTC during the second Trump administration, increasing the likelihood that the current investigation will fizzle out without turning into a full-blown antitrust lawsuit.—Aaron Holmes
Trump Will Sign Online Child Safety Legislation Into Law
In 2025, lawmakers will pass the first comprehensive federal regulation the tech industry has seen in decades. This may or may not take the form of the Kids Online Safety and Privacy Act, a landmark piece of social media privacy and safety legislation that aims to protect children from online harm.
The bill has garnered bipartisan support, although it has spent the last few months in Congressional limbo: The Senate passed the legislation in July, but efforts to get it through the House of Representatives stalled out, thanks to lobbying efforts from Meta Platforms and other tech giants. Congress left Washington at the end of 2024 without passing the bill, but House Speaker Mike Johnson has said getting some form of child safety legislation passed will be a priority this year. Notably, some of President-elect Donald Trump’s closest confidants—including Elon Musk and Donald Trump Jr.—have also recently come out in its favor.
“We can protect free speech and our kids at the same time from Big Tech,” Trump Jr. wrote on X. “It’s time for House Republicans to pass the Kids Online Safety Act ASAP.”—P.M.
Alibaba Will Acquire One of China’s Top AI Startups
China’s crowded AI sector is due for a consolidation, which will prompt Alibaba Group to acquire Moonshot AI, one of the country’s largest startups in the space. The multibillion-dollar deal will transform the industry.
Beijing-based Moonshot is one of several Chinese AI unicorns developing AI models and applications in a fiercely competitive domestic market where U.S. players like OpenAI and Google are absent. Local tech giants and startups generate little revenue from their AI products due to an intense price war that ensures users pay almost nothing. Moonshot and other unicorns, such as MiniMax, Zhipu AI, Stepfun and Baichuan, are all trying to figure out how to survive. While Moonshot’s Kimi AI chatbot is one of the biggest in China, it is fighting an uphill battle against its larger rival: Doubao, the country’s most popular generative AI app, developed by ByteDance.
For Alibaba, acquiring Moonshot would be a way to step up its game in the market for consumer AI apps and better compete against ByteDance. Alibaba’s AI business has so far focused mainly on serving enterprise customers. While it also operates an AI chatbot app for Chinese consumers in China, that hasn’t gained popularity.
Alibaba already owns about 36% of Moonshot after having invested about $800 million in the startup in early 2024. By becoming a fully Alibaba-owned business, Moonshot could gain access to more capital, computing resources and user traffic through Alibaba’s popular shopping sites.—Juro Osawa
Nvidia Will Make Several Significant Acquisitions
Nvidia is already a giant, but CEO Jensen Huang won’t want to stop growing, and given the company’s soaring stock price, Nvidia could afford some purchases. So we’ll see Nvidia make at least two purchases in 2025. One could be a firm developing 3D-simulation software that would be a good fit for Nvidia’s Omniverse. That product, which has been a major focus for Huang, can create simulations of settings like factory floors that companies can use to train workers.
Nvidia also might acquire a cloud storage company to address a longstanding challenge in training AI models: the slow speed of transferring data into GPU memory. Nvidia several years ago developed a technology called GPU Direct to address this, which storage providers like Weka, Pure Storage, Vast Data and DDN have adopted. Buying one of these companies could help round out Nvidia’s storage capabilities.—K.M.
Microsoft Will Do a Deal With Anthropic
Two years ago it was inconceivable that Microsoft would begin doing business with OpenAI’s biggest competitor, given its own multibillion-dollar investment in OpenAI and the fact that Anthropic is backed by Microsoft rivals Google and Amazon. But we’ve seen hints that Microsoft is willing to work with Anthropic: Microsoft’s GitHub struck a deal with Anthropic in October to add its models to the popular GitHub Copilot code-writing tool.
Over the last year, Microsoft has made strides to diversify its AI business away from OpenAI, and a deal with Anthropic could add its models to Azure. That would give Microsoft’s developer customers access to the OpenAI archrival on Microsoft’s own cloud. The company currently hosts OpenAI’s models, as well as open models from Meta, Mistral AI, Cohere and other developers on Azure, but nothing from Anthropic…yet.—A.H.
Warner Bros. Discovery Will Rebrand Max
For companies like Warner Bros. Discovery, few things are more important than the fate of their streaming services—particularly in a TV-screen landscape crowded with more choices than a Walmart bin of discount DVDs. Despite CEO David Zaslav’s yearslong efforts, the beleaguered media conglomerates remains stalled in turnaround mode, and to better maximize its strategy, he’ll do a rebrand of the Max streaming service that puts Warner Bros. or its hallmark HBO brand out front.
Yes, the company has changed the name several times already, and the latest iteration, Max, was meant to underline the ostensibly deep catalog it could offer from both Warner Bros. and Discovery and theoretically broaden the streamer’s reach beyond adult prestige TV fare to include more family-friendly fare like Food Network and Animal Planet. But the streaming service rebrand will be part of Zaslav jettisoning some parts of his earlier strategy, and don’t be surprised to see him sell off some of Discovery, too. The Warner Bros. and HBO assets are just more valuable and an easier sell to potential subscribers.—A.B.