>>> What to look at today - 3rd of December 2024

Asian equities on Friday bucked the dour global stocks mood that dragged US shares lower for a fifth day. Electrical and electronic equipment stocks drove the South Korean benchmark as much as 2.3% higher. Shares in Australia and Hong Kong also rose, as did US equity futures, after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both fell on Thursday. Equity trading in Japan is closed for a holiday.  Chinese stocks traded in a tight range after the worst start to the year since 2016. The nation’s 10-year government bond yield slipped below 1.6% for the first time ever on Friday amid concerns about the state of the country’s economy.  The Friday moves are a sign the weakness in global equities over the past week may be starting to turn. Investors are preparing to implement asset-allocation strategies for the year ahead after a rocky end to 2024. The decline in US stocks accompanied a rally in the dollar, a popular haven, which set a fresh two-year high Thursday before sagging Friday. The yen rose after a third daily decline against the greenback in the prior session. US President-elect Donald Trump’s “policies especially on tariffs are inflationary in their very nature,” said Jung In Yun, chief executive officer of Fibonacci Asset Management Global, on Bloomberg Television. “Inflation being very sticky and refusing to come down means we could have the current state of mid-level interest rates for a prolonged period of time.” Treasuries were little changed for the week, though the benchmark 10-year yield is nearly 20 basis points above the level prior to Jerome Powell’s hawkish turn at the Dec. 18 Federal Reserve meeting. Big moves have proliferated across asset classes after Powell’s board expressed waning enthusiasm for interest-rate cuts. Trading in Treasuries in Asia is closed given the holiday in Japan. The yield on China’s bonds “could get closer to zero” than 1% before the end of the year, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said on Bloomberg Television, adding it seemed like Chinese policymakers are “running out of magic here” after multiple rounds of stimulus have failed to kick-start consumer spending. The Fed would find little to support rate cuts in economic data from Thursday. Initial applications for US unemployment fell to an eight-month low, reflecting relatively muted levels of job cuts in a labor market that has remained surprisingly resilient.  On the corporate earnings front, 2025 will be a “show-me year,” according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, who warned that the dominance of the Magnificent Seven — the big technology stocks responsible for the bulk of last year’s gains — was teetering.  US stocks have been straining to snap a losing streak that took some shine off the S&P 500’s best two-year run dating back to the late 1990s. The index has surged more than 50% since the start of 2023, driven by gains in the tech megacaps amid enthusiasm about the boost to profits from artificial intelligence. Investors will be watching the US House Speaker vote Friday to see if Mike Johnson will retain his position. Republican squabbling over his reelection could bode ill for Trump’s agenda, according to Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens report.  President Joe Biden has decided to block the sale of United States Steel Corp. to Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp., according to three people with knowledge of the matter, ending a $14.1 billion deal that has faced months of vocal opposition and raising questions over the future of a US industrial giant. Elsewhere in commodities, oil rose for a fifth day after an industry report on Thursday signaled US crude stockpiles continued to shrink. Gold was on track for its biggest weekly gain since November, as broad risk-off sentiment buoyed demand for haven assets. Bitcoin dropped for the first time in four days.  US After Hours Quiet after hours session; RGP +3.1%, LFCR +2.1% higher on earnings; BJRI +1.9% on cooperation agreement with activist investor.

Nikkei Closed Hang Seng +0.40% CSI -0.96% Shanghai -1.40% Shenzen -2.32%

Eur$ 1.0275 CNH 7.3319 CNY 7.2998 JPY 157.18 GBP 1.2403 CHF 0.9109 RUB 114.6616 TRY 35.3956 WTI$ 73.18 +0.07% Gold 2,660 +0.07% BTC 96,484 -0.66% ETH 3,441 -0.30%

S&P +0.25% Nasdaq +0.37% EuroStoxx -0.16% FTSE -0.10% Dax -0.06% SMI

Macro :
- Chinese Drone-Related Stocks Decline as US Considers Ban
- Buybacks Reach $1.3 Trillion in 2024, Second-Most Ever: Birinyi
- BofA Stock Indicator Is Notch Away From Flashing a ‘Sell’ Signal
- Biden to Block More Offshore Oil Drilling Before Trump Arrives
- Morgan Stanley’s Shalett Sees Big Tech’s Reign in Peril in 2025
- US Approves Possible $3.6b Military Sale to Japan
- Australia Uranium Stocks Jump on Kazakhstan Ops. Suspension (2)

Keep an eye on :
- DTE GY : Deutsche Telekom Says €2b Share Buyback to Begin on Jan. 3
- EL FP : China AI Glasses Makers’ Shares Jump Ahead of Tech Show in US
- PSH NA : Pershing Square Holdings Dec. Net Performance -0.2%
- PKTM AV : Pierer Seeks “Conditional Capital” Increase End January
- SCR FP : SCOR Finalizes the Sale of Stake in the Humensis Group
- TSLA US : Tesla Cybertruck Joins Short List of EVs Eligible for US Subsidy
- TLW LN : Tullow Oil Says Ghana Tax Arbitration Had Successful Outcome
- X US : Biden Decides to Block U.S. Steel Sale to Japanese Buyer
- VOD LN : Zegona Says Vodafone Spain, MasOrange Create Fiber Network Co.

>>> US After Hours Summary: Quiet after hours session; RGP +3.1%, LFCR +2.1% hig

After Hours Summary: Quiet after hours session; RGP +3.1%, LFCR +2.1% higher on earnings; BJRI +1.9% on cooperation agreement with activist investor

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: RGP +3.1%, LFCR +2.1%, APO +0.6% (estimates Q4 net investment income)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: BJRI +1.9% (enters into cooperation agreement with activist investor), KTOS +1.6% (Biden administration considering rule to limit or ban Chinese drones in US, according to Bloomberg), WGS +1.5% (names new COO), EH +1.3% (Biden administration considering rule to limit or ban Chinese drones in US, according to Bloomberg), AVAV +1% (Biden administration considering rule to limit or ban Chinese drones in US, according to Bloomberg), COR +0.7% (completes Retina Consultants acquisition, raises FY25 EPS guidance to reflect addition), OZK +0.5% (increases dividend), DTI +0.3% (stock offering by selling shareholders), NLY +0.2% (authorizes new $1.5 bln share repurchase program), JOBY +0.1% (Biden administration considering rule to limit or ban Chinese drones in US, according to Bloomberg), DCBO +0.1% (CFO to step down), AVA +0.1% (submits 2025 electric integrated resource plan)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: ASTL -2%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: GGAL -1.1% (ADS offering by selling shareholder), CVNA -0.7% (calls short allegations misleading and inaccurate, according to NY Post), ALG -0.3% (increases dividend), ITGR -0.2% (announces conversion period for convertible notes)

FT : UK heading for tax rises despite return to growth, economists say

UK heading for tax rises despite return to growth, economists say

The UK will return to growth this year but the upturn will not be strong enough to spare the Labour government from raising taxes again before the next election, according to an annual Financial Times poll of economists.

The survey of 96 leading economists found that, although the UK is likely to outperform France and Germany in 2025, previously announced increases in taxes on businesses and individuals could undermine jobs and the wider economy.

Most of the economists expected only a tepid rate of expansion this year, short of the 2 per cent rebound the Office for Budget Responsibility fiscal watchdog anticipated for 2025.

“Growth will undershoot the government and the OBR’s forecasts,” said Maxime Darmet, senior economist at Allianz Trade. “Therefore, tax receipts will probably undershoot as well.”

All but a handful of respondents said UK chancellor Rachel Reeves would end up increasing taxes again before the next general election, expected in 2029, despite her protestations that Britain would not have another big tax-raising Budget in this parliament.

Andrew Oswald, professor of economics and behavioural science at Warwick university, said there would be “a dawning realisation . . . that without income tax and VAT rises, we cannot make the damn sums work”.

Reeves, who took office warning that Labour had inherited “the worst set of circumstances since the second world war”, increased employers’ national insurance contributions by £25bn in her autumn Budget — a move set to take effect in April.

“The government has chosen to frighten business, which has hit confidence,” said Sir Howard Davies, professor of practice at the Paris Institute of Political Science (Sciences Po) and former director of the London School of Economics.

He added that, given the impact on confidence, the UK would remain “just outside the Champions League” in the G7 growth rankings.

Britain’s greater political stability and services-based economy meant it would fare better in 2025 than France and Germany, which may be hit harder by potential US tariffs threatened by president-elect Donald Trump, the survey found. However, most economists expected some negative impact from Trump’s policies on the UK.


The economists said UK growth would still lag behind the US as the temporary stimulus of higher government spending set out in the Budget faded and higher labour costs hit employers.

Wages will still be rising in real terms, making people somewhat better off, many economists said. However, they added that people would not feel much of an improvement because prices and borrowing costs were still high and the rising tax burden was fuelling anxiety over job security.

Fhaheen Khan, senior economist at the manufacturers’ trade group Make UK, said the increase in employers’ national insurance contributions would be “a heavy pill to swallow” for industries whose costs had been rising for years.

Stubborn inflation would also limit the scope for the Bank of England to cut interest rates and the UK would continue to suffer chronically weak investment and productivity, the survey found.

The FT’s survey closed before a series of data releases showed the scale of the challenge facing Reeves this year.

Growth went into reverse at the end of 2024, with GDP stalling over the third quarter and contracting in October. At the same time, price pressures have lingered and business sentiment has soured.


Most economists think a return to growth will be helped by a front-loaded increase in government spending and by consumers becoming more willing to spend their accumulated savings.

But forecasts compiled by Consensus Economics in December, before the latest figures, found the average prediction among economists was for GDP growth of just 1.3 per cent in 2025. Most of the FT survey respondents had similar expectations.

Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at the consultancy Oxford Economics, said the OBR had been “much too bullish on the potential for the public sector to drive growth” in reaching its forecast of a 2 per cent GDP increase for 2025.

Diane Coyle, professor of public policy at Cambridge university, added that returning the economy to the rate of growth it experienced before the 2008 financial crisis, would “require much more investment in public services and infrastructure than she [Reeves] has budgeted for”.

Other respondents described Labour’s current plans, which imply that growth in public service spending will slow sharply from 2026, as “implausible,” “unrealistically tight” and “not politically credible”.


Plugging the gap with extra public borrowing would be difficult, argued Paul Dales, at the consultancy Capital Economics, who said the UK was “close to the limits” of what the financial markets would tolerate.

The chancellor could choose to wait until later in the parliament to raise taxes, given the political cost of such a rapid U-turn.

Ray Barrell, emeritus professor at Brunel University, said any changes in 2025 were likely to be “subtle”, such as reforms to property taxation, or to tobacco and alcohol duties.

Ricardo Reis, professor of economics at the LSE, said that since money had been set aside for investment projects that had not yet been announced, “these could always be cancelled or postponed if there is a crisis”.

But some respondents said Reeves might choose to make unpopular changes sooner rather than later.  

“Most chancellors get the pain over early in parliament,” noted Jonathan Haskel, professor at Imperial College, London and a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

Slow growth is not the only reason the government’s spending plans will come under pressure in 2025.

Most survey respondents said they also expected inflation to linger above the BoE’s target throughout the year, so the central bank would take only “baby steps” to lower interest rates — which would keep the cost of servicing government higher than previous years.

Most economists did not see slightly above inflation as a major problem for the economy. The bigger issue, according to Bart van Ark, director of Manchester university’s Productivity Institute, was that “price levels are still perceived as high, even after a correction in real wages”.

Nick Bosanquet, former Imperial College professor now at the consultancy Aiming for Health Success, said “anxiety” about inflation meant “most households will be solvent . . . but with a lot of worries for the future”.

Bronwyn Curtis, chair of TwentyFour Income Fund, added: “The main positive impact [of strong wage growth] is in the past, and taxing the working population . . . will not make them feel better off.”

Higher taxes should eventually lead to better public services that will make households feel more secure, even if they are less able to spend, said Kate Barker, a former member of the BoE’s monetary policy committee.

Simon Wells and Liz Martins, economists at HSBC, said the labour market was “the biggest unknown” for 2025, pointing to corporate plans to deal with the impending rise in employment costs by cutting headcount, automating, moving jobs offshore, squeezing wages or raising prices.

“All of these are negative for UK workers,” they added. “So the question is how the pain will spread out.”

FT : China’s electric-vehicle leader BYD posts record sales in 2024

China’s electric-vehicle leader BYD posts record sales in 2024
Bigger companies beat targets as intense competition rocks world’s biggest car market

China’s best-selling car manufacturer BYD sold a record number of electric vehicles and hybrids globally last year, even as fierce competition took hold in its home market.

Tesla’s biggest rival sold 4.3mn EVs and hybrids in 2024, far more than the target of 3.6mn it set earlier, according to the company. “China’s champion, the world’s champion,” the company said in a social media post late on Wednesday.

BYD sold 1.76mn pure EVs last year, but not enough to oust Tesla as the world’s biggest-selling EV maker. The US company, run by Elon Musk, said on Thursday that it delivered 1.79mn cars last year.

Li Auto, China’s first profitable EV start-up, Stellantis-backed Leapmotor and smartphone maker Xiaomi also surpassed their targets, selling 500,000, 290,000 and 135,000 EVs respectively during 2024.

China is expected to sell more EVs, including pure battery-powered cars and plug-in hybrids, than vehicles with internal combustion engines for the first time in 2025, as a result of hundreds of billions of dollars in government subsidies over the past decade.

Carmakers have also been helped by a trade-in scheme launched last April that allowed consumers to receive Rmb20,000 ($2,740) for replacing an old gas-powered car with an EV.

But while some of the bigger names performed well, intense competition and a prolonged price war have put scores of players under pressure. Dozens of companies such as Xpeng and Nio fell short of their sales targets, even as they recorded growth.

“Competition in the market is very fierce,” said Yale Zhang, managing director at Shanghai-based consultancy Automotive Foresight. “The biggest companies are taking an increasingly large piece of the pie, while most of the smaller groups are struggling.”

Consolidation is already reshaping the world’s largest EV market. Once high-flying start-ups such as HiPhi and Baidu-backed Jidu have collapsed over the past year. Auto conglomerate Geely combined its sub-brands Zeekr and Lynk & Co in November to “streamline operations”. 

“The economies of scale matter more than ever to carmakers as the industry transitions to EVs,” added Zhang.

Analysts also pointed out that the entrance of tech groups such as Xiaomi and Huawei had deepened competition.

As of December 31, Xiaomi sold more than 135,000 units of its only model, the SU7 sedan, launched in late March, surpassing its goal of 130,000 cars. Founder Lei Jun said on Wednesday the group aimed to more than double that in 2025 by delivering 300,000 EVs.  

“The country’s EV market is huge, so even a niche segment could see considerable demand,” said Li Yanwei, a member of the China Automobile Dealers Association expert committee.

“Xiaomi’s SU7 sedan made a splash by capturing consumers’ demands for a personalised [car] with an attractive price tag.”

President Xi Jinping acknowledged the success of the industry in his New Year’s address. “[China’s] annual production volume of new energy vehicles exceeded 10mn units for the first time,” Xi said in a televised speech on Tuesday.

>>> US Close Dow -0.36% S&P -0.22% Nasdaq -0.16% Russell +0.07%

Closing Stock Market Summary
The stock market experienced some turbulence on the first session of the year. The major indices initially moved higher, bolstered by buy-the-dip trading after a soft close to 2024 and some rebalancing activity at the start of the year. Rising rates and mega cap losses drove the major indices lower around mid-day, though. The stock market ultimately closed off session lows and losses weren't very pronounced.

The S&P 500 which traded up as much as 0.9%, closed 0.2% lower. The Nasdaq Composite settled with a 0.2% decline after trading up as much as 1.1% at its intraday high. Small cap stocks outperformed their larger peers, leading the Russell 2000 to close 0.1% higher.

Apple (AAPL 243.85, -6.57, -2.6%) and Tesla (TSLA 379.28, -24.56, -6.1%) extended early declines as the major indices moved to session lows. Apple shares reacted to some cautious comments on iPhone demand from the analyst at UBS. Tesla's weakness followed its Q4 deliveries report, which put a cap on the company's first annual decline in deliveries. Microsoft (MSFT 418.58, -2.92, -0.7%) was another influential loser with no specific catalyst, turning lower after trading up as much as 1.1% at its intraday high.

Losses in the aforementioned names contributed to losses in their respective S&P 500 sectors. The consumer discretionary sector was the worst performer, dropping 1.3%, and the information technology sector logged a 0.2% gain.

Gains in its semiconductor-related components provided some offsetting support to the info tech sector. This price action also led the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) to settle 0.8% gain.

The energy sector was a winning standout, jumping 1.0% as commodity prices climbed. WTI crude oil futures settled 1.9% higher at $73.11/bbl and natural gas futures rose 1.6% to $3.15/mmbtu.

Treasuries settled with losses, which contributed to the downside bias in equity indices. The 2-yr yield settled one basis point higher at 4.25% after hitting 4.20% earlier and the 10-yr yield settled one basis point higher at 4.58% after hitting 4.51%.

Treasuries settled with losses. The 2-yr yield settled one basis point higher at 4.25% and the 10-yr yield settled one basis point higher at 4.58%.

The ongoing strength in the dollar, which can be a drag on earnings for multinational companies, was another contributing factor in the downside bias. The U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.9% to to 109.33, hitting its highest level since September 2022. This was largely at the expense of the euro (EUR/USD -1.0% to 1.0252), which keeps sinking on growth and policy rate divergences.
  • Russell 2000: +0.1% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -0.2% YTD
  • S&P 500: -0.2% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: -0.2% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.4% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:
  • Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 28 decreased by 9,000 to 211,000 (consensus 224,000) while continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 21 decreased by 52,000 to 1.844 million.
    • The key takeaway from the report is the low level of initial claims -- a leading indicator -- as that connotes a situation where employers are reluctant to let employees go, which goes hand-in-hand with an optimistic view of business prospects.
  • Total construction spending was unchanged month-over-month in November (consensus 0.2%) following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase (from 0.4%) in October. Total private construction was up 0.1% month-over-month while total public construction declined 0.1% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, total construction spending was up 3.0%.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that there wasn't much impulse for construction spending in November, particularly on the nonresidential side of things.
  • December S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - Final checked in at 49.4 versus the preliminary reading of 48.3 and the final November reading of 49.7. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0, so the December PMI represents activity contracting at a slightly faster pace than the prior month.
  • The MBA Mortgage Applications Index was down 21.9% from two weeks before with refinance applications down 36% and purchase applications down 13% (note: this data is usually released on a weekly basis, so the actuals, which aren't necessarily good, also aren't as bad as they appear at first blush)

Looking ahead to Friday, market participants receive the following economic data:
  • 10:00 ET: December ISM Manufacturing Index (consensus 48.5%; prior 48.4%)
  • 10:30 ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories (prior -93 bcf)

TechCrunch : Telegram rolls out third-party account verification, filters

Telegram rolls out third-party account verification, filters

Telegram has rolled out its first update of the year, adding a new account verification method powered by third-parties, new message search filters, and the ability to turn gifts into NFTs.

The chat app already had a program to verify public figures and organizations on the platform, and it has now launched a project to let already verified third-party authorities, such as food-quality regulators or educational consortiums, verify an account.

Accounts that are verified by a third party will have a new logo next to their names instead of a blue checkmark.

“This decentralized platform for additional verification will help prevent scams and reduce misinformation — with a unique proactive solution that sets a new safety standard for social platforms,” Telegram said in a blog post.

People or organizations that want to be authenticated will need to first undergo verification and complete an application to become eligible to receive the verified mark. Telegram said that entities can use its Bot API to assign or remove verification — somewhat akin to organizations buying verification on X and verifying their affiliated accounts. These affiliated accounts will have the organization’s logo on their profile once they are verified.

Telegram also launched a way to turn gifts into NFTs with custom backgrounds and icons. Users can send gifts by spending Telegram Stars, which you can buy through the app or through the Fragment site by connecting their TON crypto wallet.

Telegram said users would be able to trade these NFTs on different platforms. Notably, Telegram charges users to upgrade their gifts to collectibles to cover blockchain transaction costs.

Telegram has used cryptocurrencies for creator monetization as well as for payments on the platform for games and mini apps.

The company has also rolled out an emoji reaction feature for service messages, such as someone joining a group, and new search filters for private chats, group chats, and channels.

TechCrunch : CES 2025: What to expect from the year’s first and biggest tech sho

CES 2025: What to expect from the year’s first and biggest tech show

CES 2025 officially kicks off in Las Vegas on the morning of Tuesday, January 7 and runs through the end of the day on January 10. The “official” dates are specific to when the floor of the Las Vegas Convention Center is open to attendees, and ultimately belie the show’s true duration. A pair of press days kick off Sunday with a few smaller events leading up to a scrum of press conferences on January 6.

Press conferences
We’ll be watching the following with a close eye here are TechCrunch:

AMD (Monday at 11 a.m. PT/2 p.m. ET): AMD has its work cut out for it at CES 2025. Competitor Nvidia has been sucking the oxygen out of every room it graces, as the chipmaker remains at the forefront of the AI boom. So, how will AMD compete with Nvidia’s reported RTX 5000 announcement? The company should show off its own next-gen GPU. As part of an ongoing rebrand, the RDNA 4 cards could arrive as either the RX 8000 or RX 9000 series.

Toyota (Monday at 4 p.m. PT/7 p.m ET): We expect Chairman Akio Toyoda to go all in on Woven City, the carmarker’s “living laboratory.” Our automotive editor Kirsten Korosec adds: “Details are slim about exactly what will be revealed. TechCrunch, which was at the initial announcement in 2020, will be watching to see how startups will be incorporated into Woven City and whether Toyota followed through on its plans to build a fully connected ecosystem powered by hydrogen fuel cells.”

Samsung (Monday at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET): Samsung’s CES presser is always an odd duck. The Korean electronics giant generally keeps its powder dry when it comes to consumer electronics. After all, it’s expected to announce its latest flagship handset — the Galaxy S25 — toward the end of January. CES 2025 is going to continue the company’s tradition of TVs and appliances. There are also odds and ends like consumer robots that will most likely never see the light of day. Samsung has adopted the tagline “AI for All: Everyday, Everywhere” for the presentation.

Nvidia (Monday at 6:30 p.m. PT/9:30 p.m. ET): Nvidia will no doubt have the biggest CES 2025. After all, the company has pretty much the biggest everything nowadays. The chip giant is sporting a $3.4+ trillion market cap, due largely to its foundational position in the ongoing AI boom. Companies like OpenAI and Meta have purchased Nvidia processors by the boatload, and that’s unlikely to change in the new year. Founder and CEO Jensen Huang will help kick off CES 2025 “with his trademark leather jacket and an unwavering vision,” per Nvidia.

Notable keynotes from the following day include Twitter/X CEO Linda Yaccarino at 1:30 p.m. PT and Delta CEO Ed Bastian at 5 p.m. PT. The latter, notably, will take place at jam band hot spot the Sphere. Both will be available to stream at the official CES YouTube page.

Trends
The show’s hot topic will almost certainly be the only thing anyone in tech seems to talk about these days: AI. That’s nothing new for CES, of course. The category has been at the forefront for years now, with 2024’s show delivering some of the earliest generative-AI-powered consumer devices.

The Rabbit R1 was, perhaps, the most notable from last year’s show. The handheld generated a lot of buzz at the event, though as with other AI devices like Humane’s AI Pin, the product failed to live up to any expectations.

The subject won’t be limited to this manner of product, however. This year, any product that doesn’t mention AI in some form will be in a small minority. As mentioned above, Nvidia and AMD will be going head-to-head on the chip front. Nvidia will be a particular focus, as the chipmaker sets the stage pace for AI in 2025, including the release of the much anticipated GeForce RTX 50 GPU. The company will also touch on other key categories, including robotics and transportation.

AI will grace everything from cars to refrigerators this year. Some applications will prove genuinely useful, but many — if not most — will be a solution in search of a problem. This is always an important thing to keep in mind at an event like CES. It’s a huge show — last year’s event hosted 4,300 companies and nearly 140,000 attendees. There’s a lot of noise, and plenty of AI “applications” exist in attempt to rise above it.

Over the past decade, CES has transformed into one of the year’s top automotive shows. This has primarily been driven by automotive manufacturers’ bids to become bleeding-edge pioneers: Where better to showcase that than the year’s biggest consumer tech show? The 2021 addition of the Las Vegas Convention Center’s West Hall has facilitated that expansion.

Questions remain about whether CES can maintain its status as a major car show. Anecdotally, fewer large names appear to be participating in a meaningful way, including U.S. manufacturers like Ford. This is likely due, in part, to Detroit’s North American International Auto Show returning after a year off. That event is set to kick off January 10, overlapping with CES.

That’s not to say that there won’t be big headlines out of Vegas next week. In addition to Toyota’s participation, Sony’s press conference should once again feature Afeela, the company’s collaboration with Honda. Firms like Hyundai — which now owns Boston Dynamics — will likely showcase its focus on humanoid and other robotics.

Robotics have increasingly become a focus point for CES in recent years. I anticipate most transportation companies discussing the topic, from manufacturing to eVTOLs. The car industry has been the tip of the automated manufacturing spear for years, a fact accelerated by various employment and supply chain crises since the pandemic. Meanwhile, eVTOLs scored a major FAA win late last year.

CES continues to be a major launching pad for computer monitors. In fact, Samsung, ASUS, and MSI all announced the addition of “the world’s first” 27-inch 4K OLED monitors with 240Hz refresh rates. Smart appliances always get a lot of love at the show as well. LG has already revealed a bunch of news on that front. Samsung should follow suit at its press conferences on Monday.

After an extended lull, I anticipate a new wave of smart home devices. Between interoperability through the Matter standard, the explosion of generative AI platforms, and a second wind for smart assistants from Google, Amazon, and Apple, companies will be showcasing how these devices might excel where their predecessors failed.

After its latest hype cycle, extended reality still has a lot to prove. The Vision Pro hasn’t taken off as Apple had hoped, and competitors are struggling to compete with Meta’s ability to subsidize the cost of the Quest. Big names in the space like HTC and Magic Leap have largely pivoted to enterprise applications. Chipmakers like Qualcomm, however, are still very much focused on making a splash.

FT : Reinsurance costs fall as sector deploys record capital

Reinsurance costs fall as sector deploys record capital
Decrease follows two years of bumper profits for providers

The cost of property catastrophe reinsurance has fallen 8 per cent globally, reflecting reinsurers’ record supply of capital, according to research from Howden, the insurance broker.

The fall in rates on January 1 — the date when policies typically renew — follows two years of bumper profits for providers of reinsurance, which insurers buy to spread natural catastrophe-related losses claimed by homes and businesses. Industry experts have blamed elevated reinsurance costs for contributing to the affordability crisis faced by homeowners.

Rates in the US and Europe fell as much as 15 per cent for insurance accounts that did not suffer losses, Howden said on Thursday.

Dedicated reinsurance capital finished 2024 at a record high of $463bn, up 10 per cent year on year, according to Howden. That was driven by higher asset values and by the growth of catastrophe bonds, which allow institutional investors to take on risks not typically correlated with mainstream assets. The bonds involve insurers or other companies exposed to natural disasters paying investors a coupon to take on some of the risk.

Issuance of “cat bonds” hit a record high of $17.7bn last year, according to Artemis, which tracks the market. Altogether, alternative sources of capital, including cat bonds, account for $116bn of reinsurance capital, or about a quarter of the total; an “extraordinary” share, according to David Flandro, head of industry analysis at Howden’s reinsurance broking arm.

“The net result is that we now have more supply of dedicated capital than we do risk, as measured by premium. That’s why rates have come off a bit,” Flandro said.

None of this meant that risks had abated, Flandro added. Both the peaks and troughs of rates had trended higher, he said, reflecting an overall outlook in which “the world is getting riskier.”

Worldwide insured losses in property catastrophe reached an estimated $136bn in 2024, according to reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter, marking the fifth year running that losses have exceeded $100bn.


But primary insurers are retaining more of those losses, rather than passing them on to reinsurers.

Property reinsurance saw a “big reset” in January 2023, according to David Duffy, head of global clients at Guy Carpenter, when prices jumped and reinsurers renegotiated terms and conditions, trimming the amount of risk they were willing to absorb.

As a result, reinsurers have been less exposed to smaller perils — such as severe thunderstorms or tornadoes, which do not do as much damage individually as a big hurricane or earthquake — but where the combined impact is contributing to rising losses for primary insurers.

Meanwhile, even as prices for reinsurance have softened globally, regions with heavy losses as a result of extreme weather faced price increases for some types of reinsurance coverage of as much as 30 per cent, Guy Carpenter found. Canada had experienced its worst year for insured losses in recorded history, Duffy said, with two major floods, a wildfire, and a severe convective storm.