TheChek News Flow

Six million jobs are at risk from US tariffs alone if duties stay at current levels, says one economist

China’s efforts to keep its urban unemployment rate at around 5.5 per cent face growing headwinds from external and internal pressures, as analysts warn of strains caused by the US trade war, weak global demand and lethargy in the property sector.

The number of jobs that could be lost as a direct consequence of US tariffs if duties remain at current levels is close to six million – around 1.3 per cent of China’s urban workforce, said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, in a report published Wednesday.

Net urban job losses of four million could push China’s urban jobless rate to above 6 per cent, from 5.2 per cent in March, he added.

As China grapples with sluggish economic growth, unemployment has been a persistent headache as policymakers work to stabilise the economy and restore public confidence.

The shock of US tariffs has almost certainly derailed the nascent recovery that China’s labour market began to see ahead of “Liberation Day”, said Evans-Pritchard, referring to US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2.

“Chinese policymakers will probably find ways to keep the published unemployment rate close to their target for this year, but this may mask broader weakness in the labour market as a downturn in exports reduces new hiring, increases underemployment and weighs on wage growth.”

In March, youth unemployment in China, excluding enrolled students, edged down to 16.5 per cent after rising for two consecutive months. But a record 12.22 million fresh graduates this year and the fragile global economy are expected to compound a labour market already weighed down by struggling industries, including a weakened real estate sector where job losses are mounting.

Income growth could subsequently slow by more than one percentage point this year, undermining official efforts to boost consumption, while the wave of automation sweeping China’s manufacturing sector will also widen unemployment, Evans-Pritchard added.

Last year, China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.1 per cent, and it set this year’s goal at “around 5.5 per cent” while acknowledging that certain groups are still under tremendous pressure in the job market.

Peng Peng, executive chairman of the Guangdong Society of Reform, a think tank connected to the provincial government, said mass lay-offs have yet to materialise – partly thanks to exporters front-loading shipments ahead of hefty US levies as well as domestic policy remedies.

“In the early stages of the trade war, many companies rushed to ship orders ahead of schedule, which actually boosted labour demand. Meanwhile, information from trade hubs like the Canton Fair and Yiwu suggests that alternative markets still exist.”

The effect of US tariffs has been partially contained by shifting exports to the domestic market, Peng said. More importantly, “there remains the possibility of a negotiated easing between China and the US, so the full impact may not become clear until the second half of the year”.

But companies had already been struggling before the trade war, he warned, and the employment environment had not been hopeful largely due to China’s slow economic recovery and the widening application of digitisation and AI.

The Italian Arav Group is expanding its portfolio with the Roberto Cavalli and Just Cavalli Junior lines.

Roberto Cavalli has inked a childrenswear licensing deal for six seasons.

The brand has signed a partnership with the Italian fashion group Arav for the production and distribution of the Roberto Cavalli Junior and Just Cavalli Junior collections. The deal is intended to enhance the brand’s presence in the childrenswear market and the first produced and distributed by Arav will be for the spring 2026 season.

Most recently, the brands were licensed to Italian manufacturer Gimel, a deal which was signed in 2017.

Both lines will remain under the creative direction of the brand, while Arav will manage production and distribution through the Cavalli flagships and a selective network of premium retailers such as Harrods in London, Galeries Lafayette in Doha and e-commerce platforms such as LuisaViaRoma, Mytheresa and Farfetch.

The Roberto Cavalli Junior line — which includes newborn, baby and junior segments — features floral and animalier prints, including the signature Cavalli cheetah print, embroideries, and light fabrics. Also, there are mixed silk chiffon dresses and rhinestone-embellished denim for girls and tuxedos, oversized bombers and nylon cargo pants for boys.

Styles of the Just Cavalli Junior collection, which is designed for boys and girls ages 4 to 14, include animalier motifs, bold graphics, vivid colors, and statement logos.

The Arav Group portfolio comprises brands that include apparel and accessories for men, women, and children including John Richmond, Silvian Heach, Marco Bologna, as well as licenses for Trussardi Junior.

Over $10 billion — that’s how much revenue Apple’s U.S. App Store raked in last year, according to a new analysis by app intelligence provider Appfigures.

The firm’s estimates indicate that U.S. App Store revenue from commissions more than doubled between 2020 and 2024. In 2020, Apple’s share of App Store commissions was approximately $4.76 billion, growing to over $10.1 billion by 2024.

Based on Appfigures’ data, U.S. App Store developers generated $33.68 billion in gross revenue from their apps and games using Apple’s payments system in 2024, and took home $23.57 billion after Apple’s cut.

Though Apple doesn’t typically break out its App Store revenue during earnings, it did publish a report in May 2023 where it said the App Store globally generated $104 billion in estimated billings for digital goods and services in 2022.

However, Appfigures’ analysis found the App Store made $61.5 billion globally in 2022, which grew to $91.3 billion in 2024. From this, Apple made more than $27.39 billion in commissions globally last year, Appfigures also said.

That leads to a discrepancy between Appfigures’ analysis and Apple’s own.

This can be explained by an important caveat found in Apple’s report. Under Apple’s chart, it states that its “billings and sales” figures are “not the same as App Store billings.” That’s important here.

When Apple wrote its report, the company was trying to show how big the App Store is and how key it is to the overall economy, so it merged App Store revenue with revenue generated outside the App Store to generate its total for the “Billings and Sales” category.

In the report, Apple calculated the portion of an app’s total revenue that is facilitated by the App Store, even if the purchase was made elsewhere. For instance, if a user buys a subscription to Hulu on the web, but then spends 60% of their time streaming Hulu on Apple devices, Apple credits itself with facilitating 60% of that user’s spend. (To determine usage, the report relied on third-party sources, like market research firms, to estimate how much usage occurred on smartphones versus tablets, desktops, or TVs.)

Apple also allows enterprises to distribute apps with in-app purchases, but these aren’t visible in the App Store.

“Grave Irreparable Harm?”

Examining the numbers around U.S. Apple App Store revenue is more relevant than ever in the wake of the recent court ruling that now prevents Apple from charging a 27% commission on transactions that take place outside the App Store.

Apple initially attempted to comply with the court’s injunction resulting from its antitrust battle with Fortnite maker Epic Games by making changes that wouldn’t harm App Store profits.

To do so, Apple last year gave developers a way to apply for an exception to its App Store rules so they could add web links inside their apps that directed customers to external purchases. However, Apple continued to charge a 27% commission on those purchases and dictated how the website links should appear. (This even included the use of “scare screens” to warn consumers of the dangers of making purchases outside the App Store.)

Last week, a judge ruled that Apple was in “willful violation” of the 2021 injunction by continuing to collect fees on purchases made outside apps and by creating new anticompetitive barriers.

This decision forced Apple to update its U.S. App Store rules, which now allow developers to link out to other ways for consumers to make purchases, without obstacles or commissions. Since then, several apps have taken advantage of the ability to introduce web payments, including Spotify, Amazon Kindle, and Patreon. One small game emulator called Delta is now supporting itself via Patreon memberships, too.

Apple is appealing the decision, arguing in its most recent filing that the ruling causes Apple “grave irreparable harm.”

“These restrictions, which will cost Apple substantial sums annually, are based on conduct that has never been adjudicated to be (and is not) unlawful,” Apple’s filing stated. “Rather, they were imposed to punish Apple for purported non-compliance with an earlier state-law injunction that is itself invalid.”

This argument won’t likely go over well with developers, as many believe Apple should have lowered commissions for everyone years ago, not just for small business developers.

Appfigures’ analysis also broke down U.S. App Store revenue by apps and games, which generated Apple approximately $6.28 billion and $3.83 billion, respectively, in 2024.

Together, these figures highlight how critical App Store revenue remains to Apple’s bottom line, and why it’s fighting so hard to retain control.

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Congress is asked to fund replacement of outdated radar, telecommunications systems and facilities

Key Points

The Trump administration can revamp the nation’s air-traffic control system in three to four years if Congress approves billions of dollars in funding, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Thursday.

The Transportation Department outlined a plan to replace antiquated radar, telecommunications equipment, surveillance systems, air-traffic control towers and other facilities. Duffy didn’t share details on the proposed overhaul’s cost, but said it would take “lots of billions.”

A coalition of industry and labor groups said a minimum of $31 billion in additional emergency funding should be appropriated over the next three years.

“The system we have here—it’s not worth saving. It’s too old,” said Duffy, adding that it has been neglected for decades.

Building a brand-new air-traffic control system is “going to take the help of the Congress to make that happen,” he said. “We need all of the money up front.”

Worries about the Federal Aviation Administration’s crumbling infrastructure, outdated technology and strained staffing have been percolating for years. Concern has grown acute in recent months after a series of close calls and other mishaps.

“The ancient infrastructure is buckling under the weight of more than a billion flying passengers a year,” said President Trump, who spoke at the press conference by phone.

In January, an Army helicopter collided with an American Airlines regional jet preparing to land at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, killing 67 people. The accident marked the end of a 15-year streak without a fatal U.S. airline passenger plane crash. Families of the victims of that crash were in the audience at Thursday’s announcement.

Last week, Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey was thrown into disarray after radar and radios went out for about 90 seconds. The incident—which wasn’t the first such outage—rattled controllers. Some sought short-term, trauma-related leave, exacerbating problems at the already thinly staffed Philadelphia facility that oversees Newark’s airspace.

At the press conference, Duffy pointed to equipment he said looked as though it came from the set of “Apollo 13” or the Smithsonian, rather than a modern tower. Unless aging systems are replaced, he said the problems at Newark could crop up around the country.

“If we don’t actually accomplish the mission that we’re announcing today…you’ll see Newarks in other parts of the country,” he said.

Duffy was joined by the chief executives of airline operators United, American, Delta, and JetBlue as well as other representatives of industry and labor groups. Lawmakers, including Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas), said at Thursday’s event that they would work to pull off the overhaul.

“Let’s get this done,” JetBlue CEO Joanna Geraghty said.

Last year, the Biden administration asked Congress for $8 billion in additional funding over five years to make improvements, such as replacing air-traffic control facilities and modernizing radar systems. Lawmakers didn’t act on the request.

A House spending bill this year has allocated $12.5 billion for upgrades.

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D., Ill.) said she was encouraged that the administration recognized the urgency of modernizing air-traffic control, but expressed skepticism in light of staffing cuts at the agency earlier this year. Controllers weren’t among those let go.

FAA officials have worked for years to manage increasingly complex airspace while swapping out older technology for better and newer options. Besides the daily rush of commercial-airline traffic, the agency oversees private rocket launches, sets rules for drone operations and is working to let futuristic air taxis begin flying.

The FAA and its contractors have struggled to carry out multiyear technology overhauls, which often involve systems, companies and varying congressional appropriations. On top of that, priorities typically shift under different elected leaders in Washington and political appointees.

The Trump administration on Thursday pointed to stagnant funding in a key FAA account that pays for sustaining and upgrading air-control infrastructure. It said the FAA has lost purchasing power because of inflation.

Staffing has been a persistent problem. The FAA is 3,000 controllers short of its target. Controllers have complained of fatigue from often having to work 10-hour days, six days a week.