Moncler Spa - LFL beats but small EBIT miss due to one-offs
Q: How did the results compare vs expectations?
A: Adjusted EBIT of €59m was a €2m miss vs UBSe, impacted by higher than expected costs related
mainly to flagship stores not yet opened in H1 (€4m 1H16 vs €1m 1H15).
Q: What were the most noteworthy areas in the results?
A: H1 retail LFL +5% (UBSe +4%) was consistent across the two quarters and positive in all regions.
Inventory growth +2% reflects tighter management this year with a focus on ensuring full price sell-out.
FY17 store openings initially indicated at 9-11 (FY16 15).
Q: Has the company's outlook/guidance changed?
A: No, FY16 store and cost guidance remains consistent with prior indications.
Q: How would we expect investors to react?
A: Given we don't expect significant changes to FY16 estimates following this print we only expect a
limited reaction; September is the first important month for H2 Retail.
Anheuser-Busch InBev - 2Q16 preview: UBS and Consensus looking for 2Q organic EBITDA c6%
AB InBev reports 2Q earnings on 29th July at 6am UK/7am CET. We forecast Q2 organic sales +5.7%
(in line with consensus) and clean EBITDA of $4,057m (-1.3% below company compiled consensus
published today). At the normalized EPS line we forecast $1.07 (-9% yoy), in-line with consensus of
$1.08/share. See page 3 for our full detailed and divisional estimates vs consensus.
US vols & price/mix to improve sequentially, Mexico momentum to continue
We forecast US Shipments to Wholesalers flat in 2Q vs -1.2% in 1Q. For total North America,
consensus forecasts volumes -0.9% vs UBSe +1.2% driven by Canada. We expect US price/mix to
grow +1.9% organically, a 70bps acceleration on 1Q driven by positive mix (see our recent review of
the latest Nielsen data) and an easier comparative. For North America overall in 2Q, consensus
forecasts clean EBITDA +2.0% organically and reported margins +30bps yoy. We estimate North
America EBITDA to grow +4.4% organically yoy. In Mexico we forecast another strong quarter with
volume up 8%, in line with consensus. However we are below consensus on EBITDA given our
expectations of rising marketing costs as a % of sales and continued capacity constraints ahead of new
capacity coming in early 2017.
UBSe Brazil beer volumes +3% vs -10% in 1Q
We expect Brazil beer volumes to rebound to +3% vs -10% in 1Q, driven by an easier comparatives
and the absence of some technical which weighed on 1Q (weather, earlier Carnival). We note that
production data for Brazil shows industry volumes +3.2% in 2Q. See recent review of production and
weather trends by our LatAm team – better times are coming. For total LatAm North in 2Q, consensus
forecasts volumes +2.8%, price/mix +6.2% and organic EBITDA +9% (UBSe +6%).
Valuation: pro-forma P/E 19x 2018E, in line with Consumer Staples
AB InBev currently trades on a pro-forma PE of 19.3x 2018e, in line with the average of European
Consumer Staples.
Moncler reported H1 16 results after close on 27th July that came in +17% to
€346m Sales and adj EBITDA +10% to €78m, or in line and 3% below JPME
respectively. However, this included excess rent costs relating to upcoming
openings (€3m incremental) and ‘Retail excellence summit’ costs. Excl those,
adj EBITDA would have been +16% on our calcs, 2% higher than JPME. H1
is a small semester for Moncler arguably (80% of EBIT is derived in H2 for
this highly winter biased business) and the stock is up meaningfully YTD
(+21% vs sector -7%). But underlying costs better controlled than expected
and a valuation that remains undemanding for its growth profile make this
attractive still, in our view. Moncler trades on 18.1x CY16E earnings vs sector
on 17.3x on a faster growth profile. Some investors raise the risk of Private
Equity placing as Eurazeo last placed 5 days after a strong reporting (at €17.2)
and still has a 15.5% stake, an increasingly lower stake to swallow though.
Underlying cost base better controlled than expected. Excl the excess
burdens detailed above, we calculate adj EBITDA margin would have been
23.8% or ‘only’ -20bps yoy vs JPME -60bps. The good news stemmed from
G&A, still growing at a fast pace of +16% yoy, but lower than the expected
20s% and GM expansion (+140bps yoy, channel mix driven) converging
with the S&D costs compression (-140bps excl one offs) instead of
undershooting as it did in FY15. We also note that D&A slowed down
meaningfully, a further boost to EBIT. These augurs well. We slightly
raised, and not cut, our FY16E and 17E on the back of these numbers.
LFL came in better than expected at +5%, a strong achievement in light
of the significant comp base (+22% LFL in H1 15). Management stated that
there was no marked difference between Q1 and Q2 in the delivery of this
+5%, that all regions saw positive LFL and China was the best.
Moncler is the last high space growth story in our luxury goods sector
universe. Space growth was c17% in H1 16 incl 6 store openings in H1 and
9 to come in H2. There was some confusion on the call as to whether space
growth might be decelerating more than expected in FY17E with mentions
of ‘8-11 stores’. But this, we understand, refers to the stores already secured
while the target remains c15 stores (same as in FY16E) underpinning our
11% space growth in FY17E. And we believe Moncler has the management
talent in place to manage this fast opening pace.
CS:
Aalberts +2% 1H revs 1.27bln vs cons 1.3b
AB Inbev R SAB has told employees to stop working on integrating ops
Acerinox +3-5% Q2 EBITDA at €79m CSe €65m, guidance positive
Accor -3-5% H1 EBIT 8% below consensus
Anglos +4-5% Net Debt better, EBITDA 8% beat
Aperam +2% Q2 numbers and guidance inline, conf call upbeat
AstraZeneca M/P Q2 Rev $5.6b est $5.58b, guidance unchanged
BAE Systems +1-2% H1 Sales GBP 8.71bln, EPS 17.4p, no impact from Brexit yet
BHP Billiton UNCH BHP and Vale SA will book charges totaling more than $2b
BNP Paribas +2-3% Q2 Net at 2.56b consensus 2.21b, CET1 11.1% from 11%
Bodycote -1% Revs 291mln CS at 293.1mln, outlook slightly cautious
BATS M/P H1 rev 6.7b vs 6.65b cons, raises dividend
BT Group +1-2% No's slightly better, on track for full year
Bureau Veri M/P No's inline, weaker cash generation, guidance at low end
Carrefour +1% 1H recurring operating income beats estimates
Centrica +0.5% EPS 9.8p (cons. 9.3p), guidance maintained
Clariant UNCH H1 sales inline, confirms outlook
Compass Grp -1-2% FY expectations inline, but organic growth a little light
Countrywide -3% Co saying they will not meet last years EBITDA
Danone +1-2% Q2 LFL sales growth 4.1% est 3.7%, confirms targets
Diageo -1% Earnings 1% ahead of the market
Dialog Semi -10% Cuts 2016 Rev growth on smartphone demand
Domino Pizza +2-3% 4% ebit beat and UK lfl is +10.9%
Endesa +1% H1 EBITDA 4% ahead of cons, guidance for 2016 confirmed
Ericsson -1% Only parts of Sprint deal renewed
Euronext +3-5% 2Q revs 7% beat, EBITDA 15% beat
Gamesa +3-4% Raises 2016 EBIT guidance
GEA Group -1-2% Revenues 1% beat, 2% orders beat, confirms FY
Grenke +2-3% Net profit 10% ahead, guidance raised slightly
Henderson -1-2% AUM inline, EPS1 of 7.1p (CSe 7.6p)
Hochtief M/P H1 inline and guidance reiterated
Informa M/P H1 Rev GBP 648mln est GBP 644mln, confident on FY
Inchcape +1-2% Revs slightly ahead, new buyback announced
Intu +2-3% EPS 7.5 vs CS 6.8p, See's FY net rental growth 3-4% vs 2-3%
JCDecaux M/P 1H Rev. Matches Est; Says Strong Performance Across Co
Just Eat +3-5% UK orders in line, guidance raised. SI ~5.5%
Linde UNCH 2Q revs 4.3bln vs cons 4.32bln, reiterated guidance
Lloyds -1-2% Revenues and costs inline but impairments lower
Logitech +5-7% Q1 revs 10% beat, op income 46% beat, guidance raised
Maersk +1% CS upgrade to OUTPERFORM (Risk/reward skewed to upside)
Melrose M/P Brush performing inline, all about the recent acquisition
Merlin Ent -2-3% EBITDA 2% light, Legoland disappointing
Miners +1% Copper +0.80%, Brent -0.85%, Iron Ore +1.30%, China -0.51%
Moncler +2-3% H1 revenues 1% beat, H1 sales +17% on constant FX basis
Nat Express UNCH Revs 1.1bln cons 1.04bln, on track for FY
Neste Oil +5-7% Strong beat 282mn comparable ebit v 200mn consensus
Nexans +7-10% 20% EBIT beat, better cost savings
Nos +1% Revs +0.6% vs cons and EBITDA +1.8% vs cons
Nordex +3-5% H1 sales ahead €1.5bn vs cons €1.17b
Ontex +1-2% 2Q Revs 510.2m vs cons 503.8m
Red Elec M/P Numbers inline with market expectations
Repsol +1% Results in line with company collected consensus
RELX +2-3% GBP200mln of share buybacks in remainder of 2016
RentokiL -1-2% Pre-tax 3% ahead but they maintain FY
Renault +2-3% 8% earnings beat and strong on cash flow
Rolls-Royce +3-4% H1 Adj rev GBP 6.14b est GBP 6.12b, outlook unchanged
Royal Dutch -5% EBIT of $1.36bn vs consensus of $2.36bn
SAB Miller R Has told employees to stop working on integrating ops
Sanofi +0.5% Gets FDA approval for Adlyxin for type diabetes
Schneider +2-3% H1 EBITA 1% beat, Revs 3% miss, margins better
Siltronic +1-2% Q2 revenues and gross margin slightly better
Sky +1% Fy adj GBP 11.97bln est GBP 11.8bln. 808,000 new customers
S&N -1% Q2 Rev $1.19bln est $1.2bln.
Suez UNCH EBIT 4% beat, underlying numbers inline
Subsea +5-10% Solid margin performance, 50% EBITDA beat
Technip +2-3% Revs inline, 20% operating beat, guidance at top end
Telenet +1-2% Revs 1% ahead, EBITDA 2% beat
Telefonica M/P Q2 Rev EU 12.7bln est EU 12.6bln
Total +2-3% Solid beat, $2.2bn v $1.9bn cons
Thom Cook +2-3% No's inline, guiding for FY EBIT of £300m vs cons £309m
UCB +2-3% Revs inline, EBITDA €549m, cons €516m, maintain guidance
Veolia +0.5% EU3.3b contract with Sinopec to set up JV
Verbund M/P Adj EBITDA 450mn vs consnesus 448mn
Weir +1-2% Revs slightly light, margin beat, CEO stepping down
JPM:
AAL Op profit 26% ahead vs cons (prior to prodn to report) +3%
ACCOR FY16e guidance is 3% below consensus at the mid-point -2%
ADR moves BUD & SAB -2% vs EU close.
AZN Core EPS touch ahead vs cons. Quality suspect. Reits outlook +1%
BATS EBIT miss rather than EPS beat likely to be the focus -2%
BNP PBT 17% ahead vs cons.Quality suspect -driven by corp center/CIB+3%
BVI FP Rev set be at low end for FY -2%
CARREFOUR EBIT 3% beat vs cons due to better margins. 11% short base +3%
CENTRICA Fine. Weakness in US&more customer losses offset by cost cutting+2%
CLARIANT EBITDA 1% below consensus .. Guidance maintained unch
COMPASS Org growth& margins better vs JPMe.No more buyback => disappoint-2%
CSGN Capital better at 11.8% vs JPMe 11.4% +4%
DANONE Q2 LFL ahead, H1 EBIT 4% beat vs cons. Guidance unch +2%
DIAGEO Inline, within the mix US better vs cons unch
DIALOG Warning. FY guidance lowered to rev decline of ~15% -7%
EURONEXT EPS c10% ahead of cons +2%
HENDERSON Earnings in-line but focus expected on Q2 weaker net outflows -3%
INTU increased FY rental growth to 3-4% v 2-3% +1%
IPSEN Solid topline with lower opex and lower tax rate than exp +3%
ITRK/ SGS Neg read from BVI guidance -1%
JERONIMO Q2 sales/EBITDA beat cons by 3%/4%. LFL +7% vs JPM at +3% +2%
JUST EAT Revs/EBITDA ahead vs JPME. +4% increase in FY 16 EBITDA guid +5%
LINDE Top line miss offset by better margins unch
LLOYDS CT1 and interim DPS light vs cons. Outlook -2%
LOGITECH Q1 EPS 20c cons 12c, Op income $38m JPMe 31m +2%
MERLIN LFL miss vs cons. H2 outlook subdued -4%
MONCLER Adj EBITDA beats cons by 2%. Cost control better than exp +2%
NEXANS Adj EBIT beat consensus by 24%. All divisions ahead +4%
NOS EBITDA/Rev 1.8%/0.6% ahead vs cons. Capex inline. KPIs mixed +1%
ONTEX Broadly inline on top line & margins. EPS beat 0.89 vs JPMe0.82 +2%
R. ELECTRICA EBITDA 0.3% above JPMe, NI 00.7% below JPMe. unch
RELX H1 Org Rev growth +4% vs cons +3%. Rev +3% vs JPMe. +2%
RENAULT EBIT 15% ahead cons, group op profit 10% ahead of exp. +2%
RENTOKIL H1 PBT 3% ahead of company cons. +2%
ROLLS ROYCE H1 16 EPS of +4.2p vs cons -1.7p, big beat. +3%
SCHNEIDER Upgrades FY guidance after H1 margin beat vs cons. +2%
SCHRODERS Earnings beat reflects higher AUM due to FX benefit. +1%
SMITH & NEPH Guidance down for FY, H1 results lower end of cons. -3%
SOPHOS Q1 17 beats cons, significant cash generation. +4%
SUEZ Op miss vs JPMe & cons. Bottom line broadly inline. -1%
TECHNIP Q2 sales, margins, EBIT, cash beat vs cons,outlook cautious. +2%
TL5 Q2 revs inline JPMe/cons. NI beat vs JPMe/cons (+13%/10%). +1%
WEIR GROUP Stanton appointed CEO, FY guidance unchanged. +1%
Mainfirst:
*BNP-Net 2.56b(2.21),Rev 11.3b(11),CET1 11.1%,FIC +17%,Eqty -19%.....+3%
*CS-Net 170m(-178),Rev 5.47b(5.36),CET1 11.8%,AUM 1218.4bln..........+3.5%
*GAMESA-Ebit 230m(221),Raises Ebit guidance aT least 430m(405.5).....+4%
*IMERYS-H1 Rev 2.1b(2.13),Net 158.1m(163),OP 293m(289.5).............+1%
*ACCOR-Rev 2.6b(2.59),Ebit 239m(260),France -2.%,Paris-12%...........-3%
*MONCLER-Rev 346.5m(343.9),Ebitda 78.3m(79.1),Ebit 59m(58.4).........+2%
*TELEPERFORMANCE-H1 Rev 1.69b(1.69),Confirms 2016 Targets............U/C
*SAIPEM-Q2 Rev 2.44b(2.67),Sees FY Rev about 10.5b(10.74)............-1%
*LOGITECH-Sales 480m(433.8),Inc 38m(24.4),EPS 20c(12),SI 15%.........+4.5%
*TELEFONICA-Rev 12.7b(12.6),Net 693m(701),OIBDA 3.92b(3.9)...........U/C
*DIALOG SEMI-Sees 2016 Rev -15%(8),,Q3 Rev 290m-320m(303.4)..........-10%
*UCB-Rev 2.02b(2.04),Ebitda 549m(516),Net 300m(246),FY unch..........+1%
*CLARIANT-Sales 1.42b(1.44),Ebitda 215m(216.3),confirms o/lk.........-2%
*TECHNIP-NI 123.3m(141.1),Ebitda 324.4m(293.8),Raises FY view........+2%
*JC DECAUX-H1 Rev 1.62b(1.62),OG 3.4%(3.6),Q3 looks weak.............-2%
*SCHNEIDER ELEC-Upgrades FY targets,H1 NI 809m,Rev 11.8b(12.3).......+2%
*RED ELECTRICA-Ebitda 754.4m(752.8),Net 323.5m(323),Rev 968.2m(974)..+1%
*DANONE-H1 Op Inc 1.48b(1.43),Q2 LFL Sales Grth 4.1%(3.7),o/lk ok....+2%
*EURONEXT-Q2 Rev 132.3m(124.5),Ebitda 77.7m(66.83),EPS 71c(60).......+2%
*RENAULT-OP 1.54b(1.44),Rev 25.2b(24.9),FCF 381m,Reits f/casts.......+2%
*DB1-Rev 601m(605),Ebit 325.6m(312),Net 218.5m(182),FY confirmed.....U/C
*GEA-Q2 Sales 1.16b(1.17),Ebitda 145.2m(146),Ebitda Margin 12.6%.....-1.5%
*GRENKE-Net 27.1m(23.55),Raising FY Net 98-102m(93-98)...............+1.5%
*HOCHTIEF-Pft 140m(108),Rev 9.37b(10.8),Margin 5.9%,FY confirmed.....+2%
*LINDE-Rev 4.298b(4.2),Ebit 562m(544),PT 468m(460),Net 354m(323).....-1%
*SILTRONIC-Sales 229.6m(221),Ebit 6m(2),Ebitda 35.1m(34.6),o/l mixed.+3%
*TAKKT-Sales 280.4m(276),Ebit 41.1m(31.8),Ebitda 48.1m(39.5),FY ok...+0.5%
*WACKER CHEMIE-Finals Q2 1.39b(1.4),FCF 126m,outlook looks ok........+1%
*WIRECARD-Prelims Rev 240.2m(239),Ebitda 70.2m(70),Finals 17/8.......+1%
*TOTAL-Net Inc 2.2b(1.82),Keeps Div 61c,OP Inc upstream 1.13b........+1%
*ADIDAS-Rev 4.4b(4.42),Net Op +35%-39% had seen +25%.................+4%
ShoreCap:
CENTRICA - H1 Revs 13%,oper.pft -12% £853m,on track for 2016 targets........+1%
RYL DUTCH - CCS earnings -87%,bearish outlook on impacts for Q3.............-2%
JD SPORTS - sees FY PBT in upper half of range,buyback approved.............+1%
BODYCOTE - demand in industrial markets softer then expec,not seen improving-1%
DOMINO'S PIZZA - sales +17% LfL +10.9%,oper.pft +20.6%,well placed for H2...+2%
WEIR GRP - H1 ahead of expec,minerals unit strong,FY g'dance unch...........+2%
MERLIN - revs +5.3% LfL -1.1%,PBT +0.9%,cautious nr term outlook,FY inline..-2%
COMPASS - Q3 rev growth 5.2%.£700m rev gain from FX.Fy expectations unch....+1%
BAE - Sees eps about 5-10% higher than 2015.Divi 8.6p.......................+2%
LLOYDS - H1 ptp 4.16b(Est4.06b).Divi 0.85p.To close 2k branches.............+1%
ROLLS-ROYCE - H1 ptp 104m.sees '16 constant ccy revs marginally lower y/y...-1%
DIAGEO - Fy sales in line with estimates.Confident on fy targets............+1%
BATS - H1 pft 2.45b(est2.49b).Divi in line.Market share grew 30bps..........-1%
THOMAS COOK - Q3 in line.Now sees Fy adj ebit about £300m(Had seen 310-335).-4%
SPECTRIS - H1 lfl sales -3.4%.Sees overall 2016 outcome unchanged...........-2%
INCHCAPE - H1 sales +11%.Divi 7p.Plans 100m share buyback...................+2%
RENTOKIL - H1 ptp+14.4%.Divi +13.8%.Says fy expectations unchanged.........UNCH
BT - in line with f'casts Openreach proposals to continue, FY on track.....UNCH
ANGLOS - H1 sales a beat due to cost cutting , disposals £1.5bn agreed H2..UNCH
SCHRODERS - AUM £343bn divi maintained sees impact on investor demand.......-1%
JUST EAT - active users +45% is raising 2016 outlook........................+2%
SMITH & NEPHEW - all in line outlook statement positive.....................+1%
NATIONAL EXPRESS - in line US performing well...............................+1%
GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY: After an extensive round of marketing in the US, Europe and South Africa, we thought we would highlight where we see the ‘new’ consensus:
1) Clients are close to being as bearish on equities as we can remember;
2) Clients are warming up to emerging markets;
3) Clients see 'lower for longer' now being 'lower forever';
4) Capitulation on Europe;
5) Oil: upside risk;
6) Some clients see disruptive technologies as the key risk;
7) Japan – close to record foreign selling;
8) Clients felt a crisis is needed before looser fiscal policy happens;
9) China – largely off the radar screen.