>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 11th of April 2016

>>> Up
*ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC
*MEDIASET RAISED TO BUY AT HSBC
*SCHRODERS RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT JEFFERIES

>>> Down
*AGGREKO CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*ARC RESOURCES CUT TO MARKET PERFORM VS OUTPERFORM AT BMO
*ASHMORE CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT JEFFERIES
*DIRECT LINE CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*FRESNILLO CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC
*GEMALTO CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*PORSCHE CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*YARA CUT TO REDUCE VS HOLD AT HSBC

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*AUTONATION RATED NEW HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*BHP BILLITON RATED NEUTRAL AT NOMURA
*FRESENIUS SE RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN
*VTG REINITIATED BUY AT BANKHAUS LAMPE, PT EU34

>>> Call

>>> Asian update

Asian Market Update: China CPI remains above 2% on higher food prices; World Bank cuts East Asia growth; Yen hits new 18-month high

***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA MAR CPI Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.4%E
- (CN) CHINA MAR PPI Y/Y: -4.3% V -4.6%E; 49th consecutive month of decline
- (CN) China Passenger Car Association (PCA): China Mar vehicle sales y/y: +7.8% y/y at 1.92M units
- (JP) JAPAN FEB MACHINE ORDERS M/M: -9.2% V -12.0%E; Y/Y: -0.7% V -2.4%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB HOME LOANS M/M: 1.5% V 2.0%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAR RETAIL CREDIT CARD SPENDING M/M: 0.1% V 0.3%E; TOTAL: 0.4% V -0.1% PRIOR

***Index Snapshot (as of 04:00 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.9%, S&P/ASX -0.2%, Kospi -0.1%, Shanghai Composite +1.8%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Jun S&P500 -0.1% at 2,039

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Jun gold +0.8% at $1,235/oz, May crude oil +0.5% at $39.90/brl, May copper +0.5% at $2.10/lb
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,455 tonnes from 10,411 tonnes prior; Highest since Dec 2014
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.8 tonnes to 817.8 tonnes
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.4649 V 6.4733 PRIOR; strongest Yuan setting since Apr 1st
- (IQ) Iraq's crude oil output in March rose to 4.55M bpd from 4.46M bpd in Feb; Record high

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Asian equity markets are mixed, as China benefited from bullish calls out of Morgan Stanley and local broker Guotai Junan Securities, while Nikkei225 was led lower by new 18-month high in the Yen. Investors have also shrugged the mixed China inflation data which fell short of consensus but still matched multi-month highs of 2.3% in CPI - strength that was once again primarily the function of higher food prices. In commodities, WTI popped above the $40 level for the first time in 2 weeks, and gold also rallied on weaker USD. USD/JPY fell as low as 107.60 amid growing impatience with Abenomics, down some 70pips from the highs. AUD/USD and NZD/USD traded in about a 30pip range above 0.7530 and 0.6790 respectively.

- China March CPI was above 2% for the 2nd straight month, but missed consensus by a decimal, as m/m level fell -0.4% v +1.6% prior. Non-food CPI remained at 1.0%, while the food component spiked up even more to 7.6% v 7.3% prior. Note that going into the report, NDRC said pork prices are expected to remain high but will not rise sharply this year. China PPI inflation data were also revealing, printing the smallest decline in 14 months and also rising on m/m basis for the first time since Jan 2014. After the release, ANZ economists said the latest inflation figures should result in less aggressive monetary easing by PBoC as deflationary pressure wanes. Likewise, UBS said easing momentum has peaked in the near term, taking into account ongoing rebound in property sales and prices. More positive rhetoric also came from an official with China State Council Development Research Center, anticipating the economic growth to bottom later this year, though former PBOC adviser Yu Yongding kept up his proactive policy recommendations with a call for a 15% devaluation in CNY and more fiscal stimulus.

- Separately, the World Bank affirmed China 2016 GDP target at 6.7% but still forecast a gradual slowdown, stating the recent improvement in data does not necessary signify a rebound. World Bank also cut its outlook for developing East Asia Pacific 2016 GDP to 6.3% from 6.4% and 2017 GDP to 6.2% from 6.3%. Recall late last month, ADB also cut its developing Asia 2016 GDP to 5.7% from 6.0% and sets 2017 at 5.7%.

- Institutional investors have been turning increasingly bearish on Japan since the January swoon - BlackRock has reportedly joined Citigroup, Credit Suisse, and AMP Capital in expressing doubts over Abenomics. Reports citing a survey by Merrill Lynch showing overweight positions on Japanese stocks also fell for a third straight month in March as investors sold a net of ¥5T since 2nd week of Jan - the longest bearish streak since 1998. Recent splintering within the BOJ was also underscored by some critical comments from the retired BOJ member Shirai, who said there was little room to cut negative rates further and that buying more assets could only be effective for another couple years. Recall Shirai had been one of the more dovish members last year, but dissented to the decision to go negative on excess reserves. Japan cabinet has also maintained its defensive tone on the adverse moves in FX, as govt spokesman Suga reiterated that recent FX moves are one-sided and speculative, adding that policymakers are closely watching FX market and will take steps as needed to rein in excessive volatility.

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- FB: Expected to announce a $1B investment in live video feed sharing technology this week - UK press
- YHOO: Daily Mail thought to be in talks with private equity firms about making a joint bid for Yahoo - financial press

Notable movers on news:
- AAD.AU: Number of buyout firms said to have expressed interest and working on potential offers for Ardent Leisure Group - Australian press; +4.4%
- ANZ.AU: Follow Up: Thought to have hired Goldman Sachs for its sale of China bank stake - Australian press; +0.3%
- MQA.AU: Said to have hired Nomura to find a buyer for its 26% stake in Thames Water; Auction may result in about £3B for Macquarie - UK press; -0.8%
- BHP.AU: CEO Mackenzie: No plans to spinoff petroleum business; commodities may be close bottom - Australian press; -3.1%
- DOW.AU: CFO Kevin Fletcher has passed away; Names Deputy CFO Michael Ferguson acting CFO; -3.4%
- AWC.AU: UBS Cuts AWC.AU to Neutral from Buy; -5.5%

>>> What to look at this Week End - 9th & 10th of April 2016

Weekly Update
Dow-1.21% S&P-1.21% NAsdaq-1.30% Russell-1.82% Brazil-0.53% Nikkei-2.12% Hang Seng-1.96% Shanghai-0.63% EuroStoxx-1.40% Dax-1.76% Cac-0.44% Ibex-2.03% MIB-1.53% SMI +1.68%
US equity markets drifted lower this week in low-volume trading. With little weighty US or global economic data on the calendar, trading sentiment was knocked around by the vagaries of the oil market and the continuing weaker dollar trend. Traders scanned the ECB and Fed minutes in vain for more direction on the institutions' monetary policy views. Interest rates declined globally with US Treasury yields falling to one month lows. Banking stocks continued to face strong headwinds with several managements outlining the difficult environment financial institutions still face. Meanwhile, the US government worked hard to crush several high-profile merger deals. Next week looks pretty light of data as well, although the slow-moving spring quarter earnings season is rapidly approaching. For the week, the S&P500 slipped 1.2%, the DJIA lost 1.2%, and Nasdaq fell 1.3%.

Macro :
ECB Can’t Create Growth in Europe, Carmignac Tells FuW
The Yen’s Puzzling Surge, Explained in One Morgan Stanley Theory
Musk’s Reusable-Rocket Dream Comes True With Drone-Ship Landing
Portugal’s Costa Wants Creation of Vehicle for NPLs, TSF Says

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Boeing Delegation to Visit Iran to Discuss Airline Cooperation
- AIR FP : Airbus Says France, Germany Halt Export Credit Amid U.K. Probe
- ANTO LN : Antofagasta CEO Sees Copper Market in Surplus to 2019: S. Times
- BARC LN : Barclays Branches Used as Collection Points for Amazon: Mail
- BMW GY : BMW to Recall Some Imported BMW 7 Series Models in China: Xinhua
- BOSCH : Bosch Senses Weakening Diesel Demand, CFO Tells Boersen-Zeitung
- CBK SM : CaixaBank, Dos Santos Reach Agreement on BPI, Noticias Says
- CA FP : +ve article in Barron's
- DGE LN : Diageo Chairman Humer Preparing to Step Down, Sunday Times Says
- ENEL IM : Enel looks to conclude talks over buying stake in Metroweb in two-three weeks - Il Sole 24 Ore
- HMSN LN : London Planning Officials Don’t Recommend Hammerson Housing Plan - FT - http://on.ft.com/1SGnK4r
- LSE LN : Deutsche Börse-LSE tie-up hits opposition because of Brexit - FT - http://on.ft.com/1USZAJZ
- RCS IM : RCS receives all-share public offer from Cairo Communications, offfered 0.12 shares
- SAP GY : SAP 1Q Prelim. Non-IFRS Rev., Oper. Profit Trail Ests.
- SIE GY : Siemens Signs MOU for 2,200mw Power Plant Project in U.A.E.
- TSLA US : Could announces updates to Model S car as soon as next week, a new front face similar to the new Model X, LED headlights, and more luxury features, a price increase of Model S - http://cnet.co/1YnfdYb
- GLE FP : SocGen Confirms Offices Searched by Investigators Last Week
- SREN VX : Car gadgets expected to crunch insurers FT - http://on.ft.com/1qH1nWn
- VATT SS : Vattenfall will most probably sell German brown coal business to EPH - Sueddeutsche Zeitung
- VIV FP : Universal Music, Sony, Warner Seek New YouTube Agreements: FT
- VOD LN : Vodafone Germany Abolishes Europe Roaming Fees: Rheinische Post
- VOW3 GY : Ex-Volkswagen CEO Winterkorn Still Gets Paid Salary, Bonus: FAS
- VOW3 GY : VW CEO Mueller to Propose 30% Bonus Cut for Exec. Board: BamS

NY Post : Look to Wall Street to find out who our next president will be

Look to Wall Street to find out who our next president will be

Next week is primary week in the capital of the world, New York.

All of the candidates are here, but they are staying far away from Wall Street because none dares to acknowledge the economic models that have an almost perfect record predicting presidential political outcomes.

Today, most of Wall Street’s predictive models call for a GOP victory in November, based on the anemic gross domestic product growth.

Interestingly, the primary modalities of predictive analysis are each done differently, but the major ones all do have at least one common thread: economic growth.

Ray Fair, economics professor at Yale and author of “Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,” has one of the leading economic models predicting elections, and has been doing it the longest — since 1978.

The model he uses has the enviable record of correctly forecasting all but three presidential races since 1916. One instance when it was incorrect was in 2012, when Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney.

Fair’s model relies on three primary points of analysis: the per capita growth rate of gross domestic product in the three quarters before an election, inflation over the entire presidential term, and the number of quarters during the presidential term in which growth per capita exceeded 3.2 percent.

Moody’s has the Dems in the lead in the fall. But it seems to be an outlier with obviously flawed reason, in my opinion.

The Moody’s report — which came out last week from economist Dan White — for the first time ever weighs the sitting president’s approval rating, even though neither he nor his veep are up for election.

Strangely, the economists over at Moody’s — whose model hasn’t missed an election since it was created in 1980 — chose to tinker with success by adding a volatile variable that sometimes can be personality-driven and completely devoid of economics.

But, hey, Moody’s will get its report card come November.

FT : Apple cash move will not end EU tax probe

Apple cash move will not end EU tax probe

The European Union’s competition commissioner has said that its probe into Apple’s tax deals with Ireland would continue even if the company moved some of its $200bn overseas cash pile back to the US.
Apple’s stated intention to repatriate a substantial portion of its overseas cash could prove crucial as it tries to fend off the EU’s long-running investigation into its alleged sweetheart tax deals with the Irish government.

Support has been growing in Washington for proposals to overhaul the taxation of American companies’ overseas profits, with presidential candidates including Donald Trump advocating a one-off mandatory levy at a reduced rate to encourage executives to bring the money home.
However, on a visit to Washington last week, Margrethe Vestager, the EU competition commissioner overseeing a probe into Apple’s Irish tax arrangements, said that moving its offshore cash around now would change nothing.
“Whether or not Apple wants to repatriate part of their unrepatriated profits is purely up to Apple and is of no concern [to] our case work,” she told reporters after meetings with the Obama administration and lawmakers in the US capital.
Apple’s accounts show that it has earmarked about half of its overseas cash for repatriation to the US. In October’s annual report, Apple estimated a deferred tax liability of $30bn related to a cumulative total of $91.5bn in foreign earnings. As a result, Apple’s advocates in Washington argue that European governments have no rights to those funds.
Ms Vestager travelled to Washington last week with tensions running high between the EU and the Obama administration. Jack Lew, the US Treasury secretary, had previously lashed out at the EU for conducting an unjust crusade against tax avoidance that singled out US companies.
The EU commissioner insisted that she was not targeting American businesses but indicated that her meetings with Mr Lew and senior senators had not resolved the fundamental points of disagreement. “I think it’s very much the same,” she said.
In a statement last week, a spokesperson for Mr Lew said that during their meeting, he had “expressed his concern that the European Commission is retroactively applying a sweeping new state aid theory with an outsized impact on US companies”, while noting that both sides of the Atlantic held a “shared objective of preventing the continued erosion of the corporate tax base”.

The scale of that alleged erosion is a matter of intense speculation. Asked about how much Apple may owe if the EU rules against Ireland, Ms Vestager said: “I have no magic numbers . . . The case is not done yet and therefore it is still very early days because only when we finalise our investigation will we know.”
With the probe now close to entering its third year, she blamed its apparently slow progress on the discovery of “new information” and said it was difficult to predict when it would be concluded.
Assessing the root cause of the heated debate between the two sides, she said: “Obviously it looks different from different sides of the Atlantic. We do something that we usually do, that we have done a number of times. And seen from here [in the US] it’s a novelty. It’s not seen in the US way of doing things.”
She added that having face-to-face meetings with her US counterparts was preferable to what the two sides had been doing: exchanging letters and waging war in the media. “One of the things that I would like to do is engage even more in order not to leave questions unanswered. We may disagree, but that shouldn’t be on the basis of things not being clear,” she said.

FT : Car gadgets expected to crunch insurers

Car gadgets expected to crunch insurers

A wave of gadgets is set to wipe $20bn off car insurance prices globally over the next five years.
Growing use of collision warning systems, blind spot information and sophisticated parking assistance will be so successful in cutting accidents that insurers will have little choice but to lower their rates, according to research from Swiss Re and Here, a mapping company.

The companies argue that if there was widespread use of the most advanced systems, accidents on motorways could almost halve and incidents on other roads could fall 28 per cent.
“The systems support the driver. Most accidents happen because the driver is not aware of a situation or is not concentrating on driving,” says Bernd Fastenrath of Here. “These systems help to prevent accidents by changing lane, for example.”
“For insurers there will be lower costs for claims on accidents but there will also be a reduction in premiums for cars with these assistance systems.”
At the moment parking assistance is the most commonly used of these so-called Advanced Driver Assistance Systems. But over the next five years other features including lane departure warnings, traffic sign recognition and automated headlight systems (that switch from high beam to low beam when another car is approaching) are expected to become more common.
Swiss Re and Here expect that there will be an average of 1.7 of these features per car by 2020 with most growth coming in North America and Europe.
“First the features come into the premium cars, but they are slowly dropping into high volume vehicles,” says Mr Fastenrath, adding that eventually some of these features will come as standard.
The automated systems will be combined with growing connectivity via either embedded telematics devices or smartphones that will enable drivers to receive real time weather and traffic information. Swiss Re and Here say that by 2020 more than two-thirds of cars sold worldwide will have some sort of embedded connectivity.

“Safety messages about obstacles on the road, traffic conditions and weather conditions mean that drivers and cars can adjust to those conditions earlier,” says Mr Fastenrath.
The predictions come amid growing concern in the industry about the impact of self-driving cars. In a report issued last month, Moody’s warned that fully driverless cars could have a big impact on profits.
It said: “It will be several decades before self-driving cars are widely adopted. In our projection, a majority of cars could be self-driving around 2045, and are likely to become nearly universal about 2055.
“Accident frequency will fall sharply over time, and will ultimately translate into significantly lower premiums and, consequently, lower profits for auto insurers.”
Car insurance is a big chunk of the overall property and casualty insurance market. According to Swiss Re and Here, motor policies account for 58 per cent of all P&C insurance premiums in emerging markets (where the market is growing strongly) and 38 per cent in more mature developed markets.

FT : Deutsche Börse-LSE tie-up hits opposition

Deutsche Börse-LSE tie-up hits opposition

Opposition is growing in Germany to Deutsche Börse’s planned $20bn merger with London Stock Exchange, amid mounting concern about the consequences for the merged entity if Britain votes to leave the European Union.
“It’s a problem if the headquarters of the holding company will be outside the eurozone and, if Brexit happens, outside the EU,” said Ulrich Caspar, a member of parliament in the German state of Hesse, where Frankfurt is located. “The terms are detrimental to the development of Frankfurt as a financial centre.”

The deal, unveiled in February, would create one of the world’s largest exchange operators in terms of total income, and one of the biggest for equities listings. It would also risk manage more derivatives trades than any other such entity in the world.
Deutsche Börse’s shareholders would own 54.4 per cent of the combined group, and LSE investors the remainder. The merged company would be headed by Deutsche Börse’s chief executive Carsten Kengeter, but be based in London.
Many in Germany want it to be headquartered in Frankfurt instead, to reflect Deutsche Börse’s larger market capitalisation, as well as the city’s status as home to the European Central Bank and centre of the European single currency’s settlement, clearing and payments.
There is also a fear in Germany that while London is currently one of the world’s big financial hubs, it could forfeit that status if, as a result of the June referendum, Britain quits the EU, leaving the merged company stranded.
“The danger for Frankfurt  . . . is that the headquarters for both stock exchanges will no longer be in an international financial centre, but in a city whose significance worldwide will be declining,” said Clemens Reif, another Hesse lawmaker. He, like Mr Caspar, is a member of Germany’s governing Christian Democrats, which are also the ruling party in Hesse.
However, some big institutional investors based in London disagree. They say that London will remain one of the world’s leading financial centres regardless of whether the UK remains in or outside the EU.
One portfolio manager at a big UK institution said: “Frankfurt is not going to challenge London as a financial hub. The world’s biggest banks, law firms, accountants and trading houses are in London. The company would be better off headquartered in London. The Brexit vote is an irrelevance.”
The issue of Frankfurt’s status could prove decisive for regional authorities who will have a big say over whether the deal goes through. Deutsche Börse’s is overseen by the state of Hesse’s stock exchange regulator, which will assess the tie-up.
Hesse’s economics ministry said in February that the regulator could block the proposed merger if it impaired Frankfurt’s ability to operate a stock exchange and further develop the business.
Last month, Hesse’s prime minister, Volker Bouffier, said the regulator needed to establish whether Hesse could continue to supervise the stock exchange if the holding company were headquartered in London, adding that it would be “desirable” for the group to be based in Frankfurt.
Mr Kengeter has sought to reassure the German authorities, saying last month that Deutsche Börse’s was in “very detailed” discussions with the Hesse government, and the two sides were “agreed that we want to promote Frankfurt as a financial centre”.

FT : Italy pushes for €5bn bank rescue fund

Italy pushes for €5bn bank rescue fund

Italy is rushing to cobble together an industry-led rescue to address mounting concerns over the solidity of a banking sector whose woes pose a risk to the wider eurozone economy.
Finance minister Pier Carlo Padoan has called a meeting in Rome on Monday with executives from Italy’s largest financial institutions to agree final details of a “last resort” bailout plan.

Yet on the eve of that gathering, concerns remain as to whether the plan — said to be worth about €5bn — will be sufficient to ringfence the weakest of Italy’s large banks, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, from contagion, according to people involved in the talks.
Italian bank shares have lost almost half their value so far this year amid investor worries over a €360bn pile of non-performing loans — equivalent to about a fifth of GDP. Lenders’ profitability has been hit by a crippling three-year recession.
The plan being worked on, which could be officially announced as soon as Monday evening, recalls the Sareb bad bank created in 2012 by the Spanish government to deal with financial crisis in its smaller cajas banks, say people involved.
Although the details remain under discussion, it foresees the establishment of a private vehicle that will solicit upwards of €5bn — mostly from Italy’s banks, insurers and assets managers — to mop up shares in distressed lenders. A second vehicle will seek to buy non-performing loans at market prices.
“It is a backstop fund,” said one person involved in the talks.
The Italian government can provide only limited financial backing due to EU state aid rules and because it is already struggling under a public debt load that amounts to 132.5 per cent to GDP.
The bailout marks the latest and most wide-reaching attempt by Italy to shore up confidence having already sponsored the rescue of four small banks last year and passed a law intended to speed up the sale of bad loans. Both earlier measures failed to eradicate market concerns.
Mr Padoan argued the industry had the wherewithal to address its problem. “The Italian banks are able to resolve their critical issues themselves,” he told reporters at an industry meeting in northern Italy on Saturday.
But people involved in the talks question whether the plan would have the financial scope to provide a buffer of last resort for Monte dei Paschi di Siena. Italy’s third-largest bank was the worst performer in the 2014 European stress tests, with about €170bn in assets and about €50bn in bad loans. It is considered by many bankers to be the major risk to Italian financial stability and regarded as too big to fail.
“Monte Paschi is the elephant in the room,” says one of Italy’s top bankers.
Monte Paschi is already trading at zero compared with its tangible equity value if its bad debt disposal is taken into account at current prices, says Johan De Mulder of Bernstein Research. By comparison, when Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008 it was trading at about 20 per cent of its tangible equity.
In pushing for the plan, Matteo Renzi, Italy’s premier, is responding to mounting worries that the country’s banking sector — which suffers from overcapacity, weak profitable and poor governance — could pose a risk to wider European banking stability.
Berenberg analyst Eion Mullany argued that the “Italian banking sector is at a pivotal moment in its history”.
“We worry that a bail-in of an Italian bank may cause a chain reaction with ripple effects felt across the European banking system,” Mr Mullany added, referring to the possibility of bondholders and depositors in Italian banks being forced to participate in a rescue.
While concerns about Italian banks have been widespread for years, what has triggered the rush for a systemic solution is a €2bn capital call by regional bank Banca Popolare di Vicenza which is due to begin on April 18 and is wholly underwritten by UniCredit, Italy’s biggest bank by assets and its only globally significant financial institution.
ECB banking supervisors have demanded Popolare di Vicenza raise €1.75bn to plug a hole uncovered by European regulators related to a financial mis-selling scandal.
The capital call is expected to price at a discount of more than 90 per cent to the unlisted bank’s theoretical price, according to people familiar with the matter. Nonetheless, amid weak market demand UniCredit looks set to be left holding some of the shares. This, in turn, could prompt UniCredit, which had core capital ratio of 10.6 per cent at the end of 2015, being forced to undertake a cash call itself, turning a local issue into a more systemic one.

>>> Brazilian Billionaire Jorge Paulo Lemann Cashes in on Energy Bets

Billionaire Jorge Paulo Lemann‘s 3G Capital made some major changes in its equity portfolio during the final quarter of 2015 and is reaping rich dividends this year. The equity portfolio of the fund saw a quarterly turnover of 112% during the October-December period and sported stakes in several energy companies at the end of 2015. Most of those stakes were initiated in the fourth quarter, including four of the fund’s top five stock picks, which were all from the energy space. The small rebound in oil and natural gas prices, which ensued a turnaround in the energy sector during the first quarter has translated well for 3G’s equity portfolio this year. Analysis done by Insider Monkey of the fund’s 13F holdings in companies worth at least $1 billion shows that the 35 long positions held by the fund delivered a weighted average return of 7.9% during the first quarter. Since the fund’s major holdings are the ones which have contributed the most to its gains during the quarter, in this post, we are going to take analyze how 3G’s top five stock picks at the end of 2015 performed individually during the first quarter.

{https://www.holdingschannel.com/all/stocks-held-by-3g-capital-partners-lp/}

TIME WARNER CABLE INC 1,544,837 -11,347 $286,706
SPDR S&P 500 ETF TR (SPY) $148,463
Call 10,000 +10,000 $148,463
SUNCOR ENERGY INC NEW 3,000,000 +3,000,000 $77,403
CHEVRON CORP NEW 700,000 +400,000 $62,972
DIAMONDBACK ENERGY INC 800,000 +800,000 $53,520
YUM BRANDS INC 625,000 +625,000 $45,656
SANTANDER CONSUMER USA HDG I 2,500,000 +442,858 $39,625
EQT CORP 750,000 +750,000 $39,098
STEEL DYNAMICS INC 2,000,000 UNCH $35,740
CSX CORP 1,350,000 -110,054 $35,033
AERCAP HOLDINGS NV 800,000 -211,143 $34,528
AVIS BUDGET GROUP 925,000 +109,424 $33,568
BERRY PLASTICS GROUP INC 900,000 +200,000 $32,562
NUCOR CORP 800,000 +800,000 $32,240
SEALED AIR CORP NEW 722,036 +255,269 $32,203
MARATHON PETE CORP 600,000 -400,000 $31,104
SILVER WHEATON CORP 2,500,000 -500,000 $31,050
MICROSOFT CORP 550,000 -438,034 $30,514
LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES N 350,000 +100,000 $30,415
CIMAREX ENERGY CO 300,000 +300,000 $26,814
SELECT SECTOR SPDR TR (XLU) $25,982
Call 8,000 +8,000 $25,982
CANADIAN PAC RY LTD 200,000 +200,000 $25,520
RSP PERMIAN INC 1,000,000 +1,000,000 $24,390
TWENTY FIRST CENTY FOX INC 811,019 -136,005 $22,027
ROYAL GOLD INC 600,000 +350,000 $21,882
TWENTY FIRST CENTY FOX INC 773,128 -134,695 $21,052
PARSLEY ENERGY INC 1,000,000 +1,000,000 $18,450
POTASH CORP SASK INC 1,000,000 +1,000,000 $17,120
ENBRIDGE INC 500,000 +500,000 $16,620
BAKER HUGHES INC 350,000 +350,000 $16,153
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC 105,721 +105,721 $15,912
REALOGY HLDGS CORP 418,668 +418,668 $15,353
KINDER MORGAN INC DEL $15,099
KMI 1,000,000 +500,000 $14,920
Call 15,000 +15,000 $179
CITIGROUP INC 254,298 -116,342 $13,160
BHP BILLITON LTD 500,000 +500,000 $12,880
CHENIERE ENERGY PTNRS LP HLD 700,000 +700,000 $12,180
WHITING PETE CORP NEW 1,000,000 +1,000,000 $9,440
EXXON MOBIL CORP $8,009
XOM 1,000,000 +1,000,000 $77,950
Put 10,000 +10,000 $69,941
HOLLYFRONTIER CORP $5,712
Call 15,000 +5,000 $5,712
SOUTHERN COPPER CORP $2,530
Call 20,000 +20,000 $2,530
VALERO ENERGY CORP NEW $1,764
Call 10,000 +10,000 $1,764
PEABODY ENERGY CORP $500
SDCV 4 10,000,000 +10,000,000 $500
SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) $260
Call 10,000 UNCH $260
HESS CORP $1
Call 2,500 +2,500 $1
CONOCOPHILLIPS 20,000 +20,000 $-30,013
Put 10,000 +10,000 $46,690
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO

$0 (exited)
Put 0 -15,000 $0
CF INDS HLDGS INC

$0 (exited)
CF 0 -300,000 $0
C&J ENERGY SVCS LTD

$0 (exited)
CJES 0 -500,000 $0
CORELOGIC INC

$0 (exited)
CLGX 0 -458,237 $0
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES INC

$0 (exited)
CLR 0 -1,000,000 $0
CANADIAN NAT RES LTD

$0 (exited)
CNQ 0 -1,000,000 $0
CABOT OIL & GAS CORP

$0 (exited)
COG 0 -1,500,000 $0
GREEN PLAINS INC

$0 (exited)
GPRE 0 -250,000 $0
HALLIBURTON CO

$0 (exited)
HAL 0 -200,000 $0
LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC

$0 (exited)
LBTYA 0 -100,000 $0
LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC

$0 (exited)
LBTYK 0 -100,000 $0
CHENIERE ENERGY INC

$0 (exited)
LNG 0 -100,000 $0
MONSANTO CO NEW

$0 (exited)
MON 0 -189,783 $0
NEWFIELD EXPL CO

$0 (exited)
NFX 0 -700,000 $0
PLATFORM SPECIALTY PRODS COR

$0 (exited)
PAH 0 -2,250,143 $0
PRICELINE GRP INC

$0 (exited)
PCLN 0 -22,483 $0
PDC ENERGY INC

$0 (exited)
PDCE 0 -300,000 $0
PEABODY ENERGY CORP

$0 (exited)
SDCV 4 0 -10,000,000 $0
PIONEER NAT RES CO

$0 (exited)
PXD 0 -300,000 $0
RELIANCE STEEL & ALUMIUM CO

$0 (exited)
RS 0 -500,000 $0
SCHLUMBERGER LTD

$0 (exited)
SLB 0 -400,000 $0
SUNEDISON INC

$0 (exited)
SUNE 0 -800,000 $0
WILLIAMS COS INC DEL 0 -700,000 $0 (exited)
WMB 0 -700,000 $0