RTRS - NUCLEAR COMMISSION SOURCES SAY IT IS CLEAR THAT COMPANIES MUST PAY MORE THAN CURRENT PROVISIONS, DECISION DUE ON APRIL 27
--> JPM +3.15% 130k Shares traded so far
JPMorgan Chase from Slideshow Presentations
- Wholesale Credit Costs (the build for Ol & Gas) were an approx $0.13 drag on the earnings.
- RoE was 9% compared to 9% in Q4 and 11% in prior year.
- NIM was up 7 bps q/q.
- NII was up $723 mln y/y; increase primarily driven by the impact of higher short-term rates and loan balances, partially offset by the absence this quarter of the ~$178mm benefit in Treasury/CIO in 4Q15.
- Firmwide total credit reserves $15.0 bln.
- Markets & Investor Services revenue
- Markets revenue of $5.2B, down 11% YoY
- Fixed Income Markets down 13% YoY, reflecting an increase in the Rates business which was more than offset by lower performance across other asset classes
- Equity Markets down 5% YoY.
- Markets revenue of $5.2B, down 11% YoY
Guidance
-
Firmwide
- Expect 2016 net interest income to be up ~$2B+ YoY
- Expect 2016 noninterest revenue to be ~$50B, market dependent
- Expect 2016 adjusted expense to be $56B+/-
- Expect 2016 net charge-offs to be =$4.75B, with the YoY increase driven by both loan growth and Oil & Gas.
-
C&CB
- Expect Mortgage Banking net charge-offs to be ~$60mm per quarter in 2016
- Expect Card net charge-off rate for 2016 of 2.50%+/-
-
Commercial Banking
- Expect 2Q16 revenue to be up modestly QoQ
- Expect 2Q16 expense to be ~$725mm.
-
C&IB
- Expect Securities Services revenue to be ~$875mm per quarter for the remainder of 2016, market dependent.
-
Asset Mgmt
- Expect 2Q16 revenue to be =$3B, market dependent
*RCS MEDIAGROUP: CAIRO OFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LOW VS SHR PRICE
The market may be too complacent about bullish headline risk at the Doha meeting, even though the fundamental impact is likely limited. Bearish catalysts are more likely to come from poor compliance, producer hedging and the macro, not the meeting itself.
* Key items to watch:
1) Commentary - primarily Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran - will be most important.
2) Who will participate and allowances for Iran.
3) How are production caps set (Jan or Feb, production or exports, submitted figures or actual) and the timing for implementation. 4) Enforcement mechanisms.
5) Are production caps monthly or annual to account for production seasonality?
6) Next steps and setting expectations for the June 2 OPEC meeting.
* Plenty of reasons for skepticism about impact:
According to Rapidan, the "freeze" is more about talking up prices and politics than action.
Other issues:
1) Producers submitted higher numbers to JODI for Jan/Feb than current production.
2) Several members announced efforts to grow.
3) Iran has not agreed to a cap and will be one of the few producers to grow in 2016.
4) At best, this is a higher quota and compliance with quotas has been poor.
* Market may be underestimating near-term headline risk. Oil remains a
technical and headline driven market. Consensus is right to be dismissive of
the fundamental impact of a freeze, but we continue to see prices react to
headlines and the rising probability of a deal, even if it's known. A deal not
only seems likely - as leaks and prior announcements have suggested- but
confirmation of the deal, greater clarity about the freeze or hints of further
OPEC action could reinforce the bullish sentiment. That said, any upside should
be limited at current price levels by producer hedging. The bull case would
involve Iran agreeing to any cap and OPEC committing to more action in June.
The bear case is that the deal falls apart (low odds in our view), but we would
still expect positive spin and a commitment to continue talks.
* Positioning is not the concern it was for the OPEC meeting. Unlike the
Dec-15 OPEC meeting, we have not seen a large increase in near-dated OTM
call buying even though call skew has risen. Rather, put open interest has risen
more as oil has rallied. Thus, the risk that unwinding these calls will put
downside pressure on the market, as it did in Dec, is lower.
* Our concerns focus on subsequent headlines and potential
disappointment after a deal is in place. Given positioning, we don't see the
meeting as a bearish catalyst. However, premature rallies typically do not end
well, and subsequent weeks offer more risk. More likely bearish catalysts
include signs of rising production, even if seasonal, or disappointment at the
June OPEC meeting. Higher prices could also slow demand and non-OPEC
declines, while encouraging more hedging/selling pressure - even from large
sovereign producers. Lastly, a return of USD strength, disappointing GDP (esp
EM) or potential product oversupply are 2H16 risks.
RTRS - GERMANY'S LEADING ECONOMIC INSTITUTES LOWER 2016 GROWTH FORECAST FOR GERMANY TO AROUND 1.6 PCT FROM 1.8 PCT PREVIOUSLY-SOURCES
RTRS - GERMANY'S LEADING ECONOMIC INSTITUTES SEE GERMAN GROWTH OF AROUND 1.5 PCT IN 2017-SOURCES
Competitive pressure from so-called mobile virtual network operators “is less than we see” from telecom network operators who control infrastructure, EU’s chief merger official Carles Esteva Mosso says.
- “We do not have a magic number” of network operators to ensure competition and deals that reduce number from four to three aren’t necessarily problematic
- Says EU opposed Danish mobile merger because officials didn’t see “a commitment to a fourth network operator, which we thought necessary”
- EU relies on questionnaires and internal company documents as evidence
- When companies mention “market repair” it can mean a deal is “probably going to lead to higher prices”
- Regulators rely on number portability data that shows where customers switch to and which co.s are closer rivals or more aggressive.
- EU worked with U.K. regulator CMA on customer survey in Hutchison/O2 deal
- EU will have “much more guidance on how commission interprets these markets” after U.K. and Italy deal reviews
- EU’s deputy director general for mergers speaks at Brussels conference)
I thought this study was interesting and could be one of the element of the strategy of Vivendi move in the game industry but I don't see any mentionned of software names in this report...Worth having a look as this numbers look really bid
* European Technology Perspectives — We see wide implications, but believe that hardware/semiconductors will drive the market near term. Over time, we see applications software companies benefiting the most as the new VR/AR interface increases the value of the enterprise apps. Meanwhile, on the IT services side, we see opportunity in terms of technical expertise needs.
>>> European Technology Stock Implications
– ARM should benefit from need for advanced compute in AR — An important feature of AR devices is mobility, making power-efficient computational ability a critical determinant. We see ARM as being well positioned to emerge as the
architecture of choice, and see upside particularly from graphics IP adoption.
– STM is exposed via its broad portfolio — including both optical and nonoptical sensors, microcontrollers, and power semiconductors. In particular, we highlight the firm’s microcontroller wins so far as well as discuss potential via
non-optical sensor products on the MEMS side.
– IFX’s market leadership in power semiconductors makes it well positioned
— Like STM, we see IFX also benefiting through sensors (such as its 3D image sensor that is used in GOOG Project Tango), but more importantly, going forward, we see IFX further benefiting through rising adoption of power
semiconductors to drive energy efficiency, particularly for AR headsets.
>>> European Media Perspectives — We see the provision of compelling, immersive content as a pre-condition for widespread take up of VR in particular, and for some of the companies within our coverage, this represents a big opportunity. We also see VR/AR being an interesting new channel for marketers.
>>> European Media Stock Implications — Looking at the stocks, Sky (Buy) has done more than most to position itself as a leading potential content partner over time, although P7S1 (Neutral) is also in the space. On the advertising side, we see the agencies (WPP/Publicis, both Buy) as the biggest potential beneficiaries.
Premier Foods notes no offer statement by McCormick; considers enhancing longer-term prospects by agreement signed with Nissin Foods
The Board of Premier Foods plc ("Premier Foods" or the "Company") notes the announcement by McCormick & Company, Inc ("McCormick") confirming that it does not intend to make an offer for the Company.
Premier Foods and its advisers have engaged extensively with McCormick to provide it with the information requested. The Board appreciates the open and constructive spirit in which the engagement with McCormick was conducted.
The Board sees a strong future for an independent Premier Foods, and believes that the foundations have been laid for significant growth and shareholder value creation.
Premier Foods has a valuable portfolio of market leading brands, extensive distribution across key retail channels, a well-invested manufacturing base and strong operational cash flows. Additionally the Company plans to accelerate its growth by executing its recently announced new strategic initiatives to leverage the Company's existing capabilities, infrastructure and brand equity so as to expand into new formats, channels and markets.
The Board also considers that the Company's longer-term prospects will be enhanced by the Co-Operation Agreement it has signed with Nissin Foods Holdings Co., Ltd. which will expand Premier Foods' range of growth opportunities
A new, compelling story still undervalued by the market – very good entry points
* Update The group is due to release its Q1 16 sales on Friday 15 April. In France, we
expect LFL sales growth of -1.0% for hypermarkets excluding the petrol/calendar effect,
reflecting a slight deterioration vs Q4 15 (-0.7%) due to tough comps. Outside France, the
group should benefit from firm sales trends in Spain and Italy (SGe respectively 2.5% and
3.0%), while Brazil should remain very resilient (SGe +9.0%). Although the road to recovery
should be long, we expect China to see a slight improvement.
* SG view Following the publication of FY15 results, we have cut our EBIT forecasts by
c.6% on average for 2016-18e. This is mainly driven by more unfavourable forex
assumptions (in particular for Argentina and China) and more caution on Asia due to
difficulties in China (where management sees growing losses in 2016e vs 2015). That said,
we continue to see a compelling story that is still undervalued by the market, with: 1) The
start of a promising new phase. The group is already preparing to accelerate the rollout of
its multi-format strategy (store openings and tactical acquisitions). 2) An acceleration in
organic growth and plenty of potential margin leverage. 3) A likely jump in FCF. 4) An
attractive valuation with a 2017e P/E ratio of 12.7x vs 15.7x for the sector average.
* How we value the stock We have cut our TP from €38 to €35 to reflect our estimates cut.
Our TP is the average of a DCF (€36 vs €37.2, WACC of 8.3% vs 8.0%, unchanged
perpetuity growth of 1.5%, unchanged norm. EBIT margin of 4.0%) and a discounted SOP
* Events, catalysts & risks to price target, rating & recommendation Q1 16 sales on 15
April 2016. Risks to price target, rating & recommendation: Execution setbacks on Dia
France’s integration and difficulties improving profitability (SGe DIA EBIT, -€60m 2016e, €0m
2017e); fiercer price competition in France, driven by Leclerc and/or Auchan; further
deterioration in Brazil (14% of group sales in 2015 – all else equal, a 100bp erosion in the
EBIT margin in Brazil reduces total group EBIT by c.5%); failed turnaround in China (7% of
total group sales).