>>> What to look at today - 23rd of September 2016

Dow +0.54% S&P +0.65% Nasdaq +0.84% Russell +1.48%
US Market closed higher. The FOMC lowered its median projections for the fed funds rate to 0.6% for 2016, 1.1% for 2017, and 1.9% for 2018. The implied probability of a rate hike at the December meeting registers at 58.4% after beginning the week at 55.0%. The broader market finished in the upper end of today's trading range as all eleven sectors settled in the green. The heavily-weighted industrial (+0.8%), consumer discretionary (+0.8%), and health care (+0.8%) sectors finished behind consumer staples (+0.9%), telecom services (+1.1%), and real estate (+1.9%). On the flipside, the financial sector (+0.3%) rounded out the leaderboard. Volume were below average with 833mil shares. US After Hours MIFI +32.8% on sale of broadband business, restructuring; IMPV +14% on report of acquisition interest; TWTR -2% on downgrade, FB -1.5% after having overestimated video metric for 2y(WSJ). Nikkei returns from holiday with a down day amid catch-up to Yen bid on BOJ policy change, Japan PMI surprises to the upside with first expansion in 7 months; Output up for 2nd month and Employment rises to 4-month highs. Oil pares gains on diminished prospects of Algiers agreement for any supply shift.

Nikkei -0.27% Hang Seng -0.10% CSI -0.39% Shanghai -0.18%

Eur$ 1.1197 CNH 6.6757 CNY 6.6699 JPY 100.92 GBP 1.3046 CHF 0.9701 RUB$ 63.8775 WTI$ 45.80 (-1.12%)

S&P -0.03% EuroStoxx -0.13% FTSE -0.10% Dax +0.05% SMI -0.10%

Macro :
- Airbnb Raises $850m at $30b Valuation: CNBC, Citing Dow Jones
- Renzi Says Referendum May Take Place on Nov 27 Or Dec 4: Ansa
- S&P 500 Doesn’t Have Much Short-Term Upside: JPM’s Kolanovic
- Germany’s Schaeuble Plans to Phase Out Solidarity Tax: WiWo

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Airbus Sees Next 15 Years as ‘Era of Great Opportunity’: Leahy
- AMUN FP : Amundi makes most attractive offer for Pioneer
- CABK SM : CaixaBank to Sell Shares at EU2.24/Shr, Confidencial Reports
- CBK GY : Commerzbank to Cut Business Units From 4 to 3: Boersen Zeitung
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Woes Said to Spark Concern Among German Lawmakers
- DB1 GY : CBOE Holdings Said in Talks to Buy Exchange Operator Bats Global
- DTE GY : Deutsche Telekom Reorganizes Managing Board in Germany
- EDF FP : EDF’s Enedis Needs EU3b for 2017-20 Investments, Figaro Says
- RF FP : Eurazeo Sells 6% of Moncler at EU15.34 a Share
- FINGB SS : Fingerprint Cards sees its shares rise on the back of Chinese takeover offer
- MONC IM : Eurazeo Unit to Sell 15m Shares of Moncler S.p.A. ,Shares to Be Priced at EU15.34 in Placing, Terms Show
- NOVN VX : Novartis Reports Positive Top Line Results in Zykadia Trial
- UG FP : Peugeot Responding to Partnership Approach From Proton: Reuters
- POLY LN : *FODINA, STAROAK SELL 13M SHARES EACH IN POLYMETAL AT 975P/SHR
- RB/ LN : Reckitt, Indivior Face Antitrust Lawsuit From Pennsylvania AG
- RWE GY : Innogy Shares to be Sold as High as 36 Euros Per Share, RWE Says
- SAF FP : Advent Said to Lead Bids for Morpho With $2.7 Billion Offer
- SAN FP : Sanofi Says Dengue Vaccine Use Expanding, Read-Through to Zika
- TRI FP : Trigano FY Rev. Rises to EU1.32b; Sees Further Growth This Year
- UCG IM : UniCredit Dilution Priced In, Added to Conviction Buy at Goldman
- VALENTINO IPO : Valentino looks at 2017 listing on Italian Stock Exchange, Valentino closed 2015 with revenues of EUR 1bn and an EBITDA of EUR 87.5m. The report said that the results should show a slight increase in 2016.
- VIE FP : Caisse des Depots to Sell 22.5m Shares of Veolia Environnement
- VIV FP : Vivendi looks to make new proposal for Mediaset Premium by 27 September
- VOW3 GY : Lower Saxony’s Weil Expects VW Scandal to Drag On: Handelsblatt

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 23rd of September 2016

>>> Up
*AIR FRANCE-KLM RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT MACQUARIE
*FERRAGAMO RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
*FORUM ENERGY RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*HOLOGIC RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*ING RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT RBC
*JIMMY CHOO RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT BOFAML
*MERLIN PROPERTIES RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT MIRABAUD
*PERSIMMON RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT LIBERUM
*UNICREDIT ADDED TO CONVICTION BUY LIST AT GOLDMAN

>>> Down
*ENQUEST CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*HELLA CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT HSBC
*LENTA CUT TO SELL AT RENAISSANCE CAPITAL
*LPKF CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*MOLESKINE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*ASOS RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*BANCO POPULAR RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES
*BANKIA RATED NEW HOLD AT JEFFERIES; PT EU0.75
*BANKINTER RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES; PT EU5.25
*BBVA RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES; PT EU7
*BCP RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES; PT EU0.02
*CAIXABANK RATED NEW HOLD AT JEFFERIES; PT EU2.8
*INGEVITY RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES
*INTESA RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES; PT EU2.6
*MAIRE TECNIMONT REINITIATED BUY AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX; PT EU2.7
*MEDGENICS RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES
*SABADELL RATED NEW HOLD AT JEFFERIES; PT EU1.3
*SANTANDER RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES; PT EU3.55
*SUNRISE COMMUNICATIONS RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT RBC; PT CHF85
*UNICREDIT RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES
*VERSUM MATERIALS RATED NEW HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*YOOX NET-A-PORTER RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE

>>> Call
>> Stock
*UNICREDIT ADDED TO CONVICTION BUY LIST AT GOLDMAN

>>> Valentino looks at 2017 listing on Italian Stock Exchange

Valentino looks at 2017 listing on Italian Stock Exchange

Valentino, an Italian fashion house, is considering a 2017 listing on the Italian Stock Exchange, the Italian-language Carlo Festa blog reported. The report cited unspecified rumours claiming that Qatar-based sovereign wealth fund Mayhoola had also been considering the London and Paris exchanges but had finally decided to opt for the Milan bourse.
The report noted that Valentino closed 2015 with revenues of EUR 1bn and an EBITDA of EUR 87.5m. The report said that the results should show a slight increase in 2016.

>>> Amundi makes most attractive offer for Pioneer

Amundi makes most attractive offer for Pioneer

Amundi, the French asset management company, has made the most attractive offer for Pioneer, the asset management arm of listed Italian banking group Unicredit, Italian-language daily Il Messaggero reported. The unsourced report noted that Amundi's non-binding offer was one of those selected at a Unicredit board meeting held yesterday 22 September.
The other offers shortlisted were from a consortium made up of Poste Italiane, Italian Treasury holding CdP and listed Italian asset management group Anima, French insurer AXA, Italian insurer Generali and German insurer Allianz, the report noted.
Amundi is being advised by Goldman Sachs, the report added.
As previously reported, Pioneer is valued at EUR 3bn.

>>> Vivendi looks to make new proposal for Mediaset Premium by 27 September

Vivendi looks to make new proposal for Mediaset Premium by 27 September – report
Vivendi is looking to draw up a new proposal for Mediaset Premium by 27 September, Italian-language daily Il Corriere della Sera reported. The report cited sources close to the dossier who said that Vivendi wants a proposal ready on that date because the Mediaset board is meeting to discuss its dispute with Vivendi over its failure to abide by an agreement earlier in the year to acquire pay-TV operator Mediaset Premium.
The report said that listed UK broadcaster Sky is considering a bid for Mediaset Premium if negotiations between Vivendi and Mediaset break down completely. The report said that only informal contacts between the two sides' legal advisors have been made so far and that direct contacts between the two parties can only take place after 30 September, the last day that Vivendi and Mediaset can reach an agreement on Mediaset Premium.
As previously reported, Mediaset's owner Fininvest is asking Vivendi for damages of EUR 570m for its failure to purchase Mediaset Premium.

>>> Fingerprint Cards sees its shares rise on the back of Chinese takeover offer

Fingerprint Cards sees its shares rise on the back of Chinese takeover offer – report
Fingerprint Cards, the Swedish IT security software company, has seen its share increase on the back of potential Chinese takeover offer, according to Arvopaperi.
The Finnish-language piece cited a newswire report from Bloomberg that said the company’s share increase by nearly 4% earlier this week.
The item said that interest in the shares was due to merger offer made by a Chinese company. The item said that the offer was made earlier in the summer; It did not give any further details.

WSJ : Facebook Overestimated Key Video Metric for Two Years

Facebook Overestimated Key Video Metric for Two Years
Social network miscalculated the average time users spent watching videos on its platform

Big ad buyers and marketers are upset with Facebook Inc. after learning the tech giant vastly overestimated average viewing time for video ads on its platform for two years, according to people familiar with the situation.
Several weeks ago, Facebook disclosed in a post on its “Advertiser Help Center” that its metric for the average time users spent watching videos was artificially inflated because it was only factoring in video views of more than three seconds. The company said it was introducing a new metric to fix the problem.
Some ad agency executives who were also informed by Facebook about the change started digging deeper, prompting Facebook to give them a more detailed account, one of the people familiar with the situation said.

Ad buying agency Publicis Media was told by Facebook that the earlier counting method likely overestimated average time spent watching videos by between 60% and 80%, according to a late August letter Publicis Media sent to clients that was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

A spokeswoman for Publicis Media, a division of Publicis Groupe SA, referred calls to Facebook. Publicis was responsible for purchasing roughly $77 billion in ads on behalf of marketers around the world in 2015, according to estimates from research firm RECMA.
GroupM, the ad buying unit of WPP Plc, also was notified of the discrepancy by Facebook, another person familiar with the matter said.
“We recently discovered an error in the way we calculate one of our video metrics,” Facebook said in a statement. “This error has been fixed, it did not impact billing, and we have notified our partners both through our product dashboards and via sales and publisher outreach. We also renamed the metric to make it clearer what we measure. This metric is one of many our partners use to assess their video campaigns.”
The news is an embarrassment for Facebook, which has been touting the rapid growth of video consumption across its platform in recent years.
Due to the miscalculated data, marketers may have misjudged the performance of video advertising they have purchased from Facebook over the past two years. It also may have impacted their decisions about how much to spend on Facebook video versus other video ad sellers such as Google’s YouTube, Twitter, and even TV networks.
Media companies and publishers are affected, too, since they’ve been given inaccurate data about the consumption of their video content across the social network. Many use that information to help determine the types of content they post.
For the past two years Facebook only counted video views of more than three seconds when calculating its “Average Duration of Video Viewed” metric. Video views of under three seconds were not factored in, thereby inflating the average. Facebook’s new metric, “Average Watch Time”, will reflect video views of any duration. That will replace the earlier metric.

In its note to clients, Publicis said the change was an attempt to obfuscate Facebook’s earlier miscalculations.
“In an effort to distance themselves from the incorrect metrics, Facebook is deprecating [the old metrics] and introducing ‘new’ metrics in September. Essentially, they’re coming up with new names for what they were meant to measure in the first place,” the memo said.
The miscounting could also fuel concerns among advertisers and media companies about the so-called “walled gardens” that companies including Facebook and Google are often described as operating. Both companies keep a tight grip on data, and only allow limited third-party tracking firms to plug into their systems.
Keith Weed, chief marketing officer of Unilever, said in an interview last year, tech companies that don’t let third parties measure their platforms is equivalent to “letting them mark their own homework.”
The Publicis note said, “This once again illuminates the absolute need to have 3rd party tagging and verification on Facebook’s platform. Two years of reporting inflated performance numbers is unacceptable.”

>>> Asian Update

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: Japan manufacturing PMI returns to expansion as cabinet officials resume jawboning against Yen strength

***Top US session headlines***
- (US) AUG EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.33M V 5.45ME
- (US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 252K V 261KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.11M V 2.14ME (lowest initial jobless claims since April)
- Reportedly no breakthrough reached at OPEC meeting in Vienna ahead of meeting in Algeria next week - press
- (US) TREASURY $11B 10-YEAR TIPS REOPENING DRAW 0.052%; BID TO COVER 2.59 V 2.27 PRIOR AND 2.38 AVG OVER THE LAST 4 (highest BTC since May 2014)
- YHOO: Confirms certain data from 500M user accounts was stolen, including hashed passwords, names and email addresses

***Asia Notes/Observations***
- Volatility is compressed for the 2nd day and US yield curve flattens as markets process FOMC ripple and settle on 50-50 chance of December hike.
- Nikkei returns from holiday with a down day amid catch-up to Yen bid on BOJ policy change
- Oil pares gains on diminished prospects of Algiers agreement for any supply shift
- NZD still under pressure in the extended wake of more dovish than expected RBNZ; other USD majors in narrow ranges
- Japan PMI surprises to the upside with first expansion in 7 months; Output up for 2nd month and Employment rises to 4-month highs
- Japan Fin Min acknowledges not much impact anticipated from latest BOJ move; Cabinet Sec Suga warns govt watching market moves and Yen direction following BOJ and FOMC
- North Korea Army spokesperson threatens to strike Guam and Seoul if US flies its B-1B bombers over Korea

***US markets on close: Dow +0.5%, S&P500 +0.7%, Nasdaq +0.8%***
- Best Sector in S&P500: Consumer Discretionary
- Worst Sector in S&P500: Basic Materials
- Biggest gainers: WY +5.7%, RIG +5.6%, DISCA +4.8%, FTR +4.8%, RCL +4.6%
- Biggest losers: EQR -2.5%, SWN -2.3%, LVLT -2.1%, KSS -1.9%, PXD -1.8%

***VIX 12.0 (-1.3pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 0.77% (-1bp), 10-yr 1.63% (-4bp), 30-yr 2.35% (-4bp)***

***US movers afterhours***
- MIFI +29.8%; Pact to Sell Mobile Broadband Unit
- BATS +28.5%; CBOE reportedly in discussions to acquire BATS Global - press
- IMPV +16.4%; Said to Draw Acquisition Interest
- AIR +4.8%; 1Q EPS Cont. Operations, Sales Beat Ests.
- FB -1.4%; Said to have overestimated video ads' viewing time by as much as 60-80% for 2 years - financial press
- ENPH -21.0%; Will Cut 11% of Workforce, Offer Stock

***After extended session***
- GM: Chevrolet to begin offering all-new Equinox SUV model in China - financial press

***Equity Futures (23:30ET): S&P e-mini flat, Dax flat, FTSE100 -0.1%***

***FX / Commodities (23:30ET): ***
- EUR 1.1195-1.1210; JPY 100.70-101.25; AUD 0.7630-0.7650, NZD 0.7275-0.7315
- Gold -0.2% at 1,338; Oil -1.1% at $45.81/brl; Copper -0.2% at $2.19/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 6.5 tonnes to 950.9 tonnes; Highest since Sept 7th

**** Asian Equity Markets (23:30ET) ****
- Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng +0.1%, ASX +0.7%, Shanghai -0.1%, Kospi +0.1%

***Key economic data: ***
- (JP) JAPAN SEPT PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 50.3 V 49.5 PRIOR; first expansion in 7 months
- (HK) Macau Aug visitor arrivals: 2.88M, +3.1% y/y

***Speakers / Press***
China:
- (CN) Former China vice housing minister Qiu Baoxing warns about risk of overheating property sector - Chinese press
- (CN) Moody's: China developers will have stable margins in 2016 v 2015
- (CN) China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) official: No basis for long term Yuan depreciation - financial press

Japan:
- (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Will continue to watch market moves, fx moves are very sensitive
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Reiterates Govt and BOJ need to work together on many issues; deflation is the main problem for the economy
- (JP) Japan Business Federation (Keidanren) chief Sakakibara met with China's Commerce Ministry, urging more transparent antitrust process - Nikkei

***Asia movers***
- China Unicom 762.HK +5.0%; Raised at Goldman Sachs
- Iluka Resources ILU.AU +4.8%; raised to buy from neutral at UBS
- Qube Holdings QUB.AU +4.6%; upgraded to outperform at Macquarie
- Warehouse Groupd WHS.NZ +1.4%: Reports FY16 adj net NZ$64.1M v NZ$57.1M y/y, Rev NZ$2.95B v NZ$2.78B y/y
- Gold miners trade lower on gold prices; Newcrest NCM.AU -2.8%, Evolution Mining EVN.AU -2.6%
- Wynn Macau -3.7%, MGM China -3.0% cut at Credit Suisse
- Dentsu 4324.JP -4.6%: Confirms issues with improper accounting in internet ads, apologizes to customers
- Charter Hall CHC.AU -6.6%; Halt lifted after Gandel Group block sale
- Whitehaven Coal WHC.AU -8.5%; Annual report, CEO pay hike

>>> After Hours Summary: MIFI +32.8% on sale of broadband business,



After Hours Summary: MIFI +32.8% on sale of broadband business, restructuring; IMPV +14% on report of acquisition interest; TWTR -2% on downgrade

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: AIR +3.3% 

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: MIFI +32.8% (to sell mobile broadband business for $50 mln in cash to T.C.L. Industries Holdings, to restructure into public holding company), BATS +24% (reports suggest CBOE is in talks to acquire BATS), IMPV +14% (shares spiking on reports of interest from potential acquirers), GLUU +4.1% (extends agreement with Kim Kardashian West), JACK +1.1% ( announces completion of an amendment to its existing senior credit facility and announces additional $300 mln share repurchase program ), LNTH +0.9% (anounces that new data from a sub-analysis of its first Phase 3 study of flurpiridaz F 18 for myocardial perfusion imaging in patients undergoing exercise stress testing will be presented at the 21st Annual Scientific Session of the ASNC), VNDA +0.2% (stock spiked 7% after Reuters reported suggesting co is mulling a sale),

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: N/A

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: IPCI -15.3% (responds to recent trading activity, says not aware of any corporate developments that would cause the recent movement in the Company's share price), TWTR -2.3% (downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets; tgt to $14), HOMB -1.9% (announces a secondary underwritten public offering of 2.65 mln shares of its common stock by the co's Chairman, John Allison), PLNT -0.8% (announces an 8 mln share secondary offering of class a common stock by selling stockholders),