>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 30th of January 201

>>> Up
*DCC Raised to Buy at Goldman, PT 7400p
*LEG Immobilien Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
*Metro Raised to Buy at Oddo & Cie, PT EU38
*National Grid Raised to Outperform at RBC, PT 1050p
*Robert Walters Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse, PT 435p
*SKF Raised to Buy at Liberum, PT SEK215
*Software AG Raised to Buy at HSBC, PT EU38
*Synthomer Raised to Buy at Berenberg, PT 505p
*United Utilities Raised to Sector Perform at RBC, PT 1000p

>>> Down
*Aggreko Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank, PT 1050p
*Air Products Cut to Neutral at Baird, PT $140
*Barclays Cut to Sell at Berenberg, PT 200p
*Beiersdorf Cut to Hold at Liberum
*BT Cut to Add at AlphaValue
*Diageo Cut to Sell at Liberum
*Drax Cut to Underperform at RBC, PT 320p
*Endesa Cut to Underperform at RBC, PT EU19.50
*Engie Cut to Sector Perform at RBC, PT EU12.50
*EON Cut to Underperform at RBC, PT EU7
*Henkel Cut to Sell at Liberum
*Himax Technologies Cut to Neutral at Baird, PT $4
*Iberdrola Cut to Sector Perform at RBC, PT EU6.50
*Italgas Cut to Sector Perform at RBC, PT EU4
*Neste Cut to Sell at Goldman
*Nestle Cut to Sell at Liberum
*Norsk Hydro Cut to Sell at ABG Sundal, PT NOK45
*Snam Cut to Sector Perform at RBC, PT EU4
*Swedish Match Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan, PT SEK277
*Telefonica Deutschland Cut to Hold at HSBC, PT EU4.10
*Vopak Cut to Sell at Goldman, PT EU40

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*ABN Amro Rated New Outperform at Credit Suisse, PT EU26
*ASML Rated New Buy at ABN Amro Bank, PT EU135
*ING Rated New Neutral at Credit Suisse, PT EU14
*Phoenix Re-initiated Buy at Deutsche Bank, PT 835p
*SAP Rated New Hold at Evercore ISI, PT EU80
*Schmolz + Bickenbach Rated New Neutral at Credit Suisse
*TechnipFMC Rated New Neutral at Macquarie, PT EU32
*Viacom Resumed Overweight at Morgan Stanley, PT $50

>>> Call
>> Stock
*RUBIS ADDED TO CONVICTION BUY LIST AT GOLDMAN

>>> Asian Update

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: Trump's executive order on immigration sparks protests and investor caution


***Friday US markets on close: Dow flat, S&P500 -0.1%, Nasdaq +0.1%***
- Best Sector in S&P500: Healthcare
- Worst Sector in S&P500: Basic Materials
- Biggest gainers: WYNN +7.9; BCR +5.2%; GD +4.4%
- Biggest losers: RHI -7.3%; GPS -5.4%; AAL -5.3%
- At the close: VIX 10.6 (-0.1pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.21% (-1bps), 10-yr 2.48% (-3bps), 30-yr 3.06% (-3bps)

***Weekend US/EU Corporate Headlines***
- XXIA: Keysight Technologies said to be close to finalizing acquisition of Ixia for over $1.6B - press
- CSX: Said to be in settlement talks with former CP CEO Hunter Harrison and activist investor Mantle Ridge; May result in Harrison being named CEO - press
- DHT: Receives non-binding proposal from Frontline Ltd at $5.09/shr; Adopts One-Year shareholder rights plan
- VRX: CVC and Advent buyout firms said to be interested in certain Valeant assets, which could yield as much as $1B in a sale - press
- FIT: To announce job cuts of 5-10% of workforce while reporting Q4 results that are below expectations - press

***Politics***
- (US) Pres Trump: Immigration order is not a "Muslim ban"
- (DE) German chancellor Merkel: Told US pres Trump that the fight against terrorism does not justify Muslim travel ban - press
- (FR) According to the latest survey by Le Figaro, frontrunner Fillon has 21-22% approval rating ahead of first round of elections in April, while centrist Macron has 20-21%
- (JP) Japan cabinet approval rating remains unchanged at 61% - Yomiuri
- (US) State of California considering options to suspend financial transfers to Washington following threats from Trump administration to withhold funds from sanctuary cities - US press

***Key economic data:***
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND DEC TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): -41M (6TH STRAIGHT DEFICIT, smallest deficit in 6 months) V -98ME; 12-MONTH TRADE BALANCE: -3.20B V -3.20BE
- (JP) JAPAN DEC RETAIL SALES M/M: -1.7% (biggest decline in 10 months) V -0.5%E; RETAIL TRADE Y/Y: 0.6% (2nd straight increase) V 1.7%E

***Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press***
- Despite the Lunar New Year holiday in much of Asia, there was pronounced weakness in equity indices of Japan and Australia as well as safe haven bid for Treasuries and JPY. Investors are closely watching the fallout from US President Trump's immigration decree banning travel to the US by citizens of Iraq, Syria, Iran, Sudan, Libya, Somalia or Yemen, as well as a 120-day suspension of the US refugee program. The move sparked protests at airports across the US and words of disapproval from European leaders. Another US press report indicated the Trump administration may be headed for a showdown over money transfers with the State of California if it decides to pull funding from "sanctuary cities".
- New Zealand put out its 6th straight trade deficit, though this was also its smallest in 6 months, with both exports and imports rising more than expected. Shipments to China were up 13%, while exports to Australia and US down in high single digits. Analysts noted the strong trade is not unusual this time of year given the external demand for agricultural products.
- Ahead of tomorrow's BOJ decision, a Nikkei report speculated that the central bank will heed improving trade and consumption data with an increase in its accompanying projections for growth. Today's retail trade data for Japan were mixed, with 2nd straight annualized increase but also the biggest sequential decline in 10 months.

Japan:
- (JP) BOJ expected to upgrade its GDP forecasts in this week's policy meeting - Nikkei
- (JP) BOJ adviser Kawai: BoJ to avoid raising rates until inflation rises to about 2%

Australia/New Zealand:
- (AU) Macquarie: Australia H1 corporate earnings growth to show "broad improvement" - press
- (AU) NAB chief economist maintaining forecast for RBA to cut rates twice this year - Australian press
- (NZ) JPMorgan: Latest narrowing of trade deficit is normal since agricultural exports rise into year-end - press
- (NZ) RBNZ: Dec mortgage lending slowed to NZ$5.86B v NZ$6.00B y/y and NZ$6.35B m/m

***Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:00ET)***
- Nikkei -0.6%, Hang Seng closed, Shanghai Composite closed, ASX200 -0.9%, Kospi closed
- Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.3%; Nasdaq -0.3%, Dax -0.3%, FTSE100 -0.2%

***FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:00ET)***
- EUR 1.0705-1.0740; JPY 114.25-114.95; AUD 0.7550-0.7560; NZD 0.7260-0.7275; GBP 1.2560-1.2600
- Feb Gold +0.4% at 1,196/oz; Mar Crude Oil -0.4% at $52.96/brl; Mar Copper -0.2% at $2.69/lb
- SLV iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,444 tonnes from 10,420 tonnes prior; first rise since Dec 2016
- (SA) Saudi Aramco said to consider investment of as much as $5B in renewable energy to diversify away from crude oil production - press
- (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.09T v ¥2.3T indicated in 2-yr 0.1% JGBs; Avg yield: -0.173 v -0.157% prior; bid to cover: 5.19 (highest since May) v 4.51x prior

***Asia equities / Notables / movers***
- Consumer discretionary: 4185.JP JSR Corp -3.3% (9-month result speculation); 9201.JP Japan Airlines Corp -0.6% (9-month result speculation); 6770.JP Alps Electric Co +2.5% (9-month result); 7278.JP Exedy Corp -5.9% (9-month result)
- Consumer staples: WCB.AU Warrnambool Cheese & Butter +23.8% (acquisition); WOW.AU Woolworths Limited -0.9% (Morningstar cuts rating)
- Financials: QBE.AU QBE Insurance Group +1.4% (not in discussion with any buyer); SRV.AU Servcorp Ltd -19.5% (adjusts guidance); 3003.JP Hulic Co +4.5% (FY16 result); 8316.JP Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group -1.9% (9-month result)
- Industrials: AJX.AU Alexium International Group +2.2% (Q3 result); 7729.JP Tokyo Seimitsu -1.2% (9-month result speculation); 7211.JP Mitsubishi Motors -0.6% (outlook speculation)
- Technology: ACX.AU Aconex -41.9% (cuts guidance); 6502.JP Toshiba Corporation -4.7% (some trust banks are preparing a lawsuit); 6816.JP Alpine Electronics +4.9% (9-month result); 8036.JP Hitachi High-Technologies +5.1% (9-month result)
- Materials: ORE.AU Orocobre -6.1% (Q4 result); PRU.AU Perseus Mining -5.0% (Q4 result); BDR.AU Beadell Resources +1.7% (Q4 result); OZL.AU OZ Minerals -0.8% (Q4 result); 5727.JP Toho Titanium +10.6% (9-month result); 4063.JP Shin-Etsu Chemical Co -1.1% (9-month result)

NY Post : Ex-DreamWorks boss raises almost $600M for investment startup

Jeffrey Katzenberg is not a fan of vowels.

The former Tinseltown studio boss is starting an investment fund called WndrCo LLC, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Thursday.

The 66-year-old entertainment-sector heavyweight has already raised nearly $600 million for the fund, which is expected to search for acquisitions in the digital media and tech industries.

The Post first reported Katzenberg’s plans for a venture capital fund on July 23. Katzenberg’s new corporate digs are listed at 9355 Wilshire Boulevard.

The filings suggest that two executives will be joining Katzenberg in his latest venture — Ann Daly, the former president at his former company, DreamWorks Animation, and Sujay Jaswa, who was a chief financial officer at Dropbox.

Jaswa is also a former senior adviser to JPMorgan Chase and joined Katzenberg in August, according to his LinkedIn page.

The filing suggests the fund won’t accept outside investments of less than $25 million. The filing also says the firm has already booked $591.5 million in the fund.

Forbes said Katzenberg’s net worth was $900 million after he sold DreamWorks Animation — creator of the Shrek character — to Comcast for $3.8 billion in 2016.

Katzenberg is believed to have pocketed $391 million in proceeds from the deal.

While running DreamWorks Animation, Katzenberg launched a digital content company aimed at youngsters, called AwesomenessTV.

Verizon paid $159 million for a 24.5 percent stake. Hearst holds a similar stake.

That firm is now part of Comcast, though DreamWorks New Media counts Katzenberg as chairman.

He collects 7 percent of AwesomenessTV’s profits in perpetuity.

Katzenberg might be eager to put his digital media learnings to work in the market. He was a longtime director of gaming company Zynga.

With all that money already raised, perhaps Katzenberg can buy a few vowels for his fund’s name.

NY Post : Len Blavatnik seeks Warner Bros. bid amid AT&T, Time Warner merger

Len Blavatnik seeks Warner Bros. bid amid AT&T, Time Warner merger

Is billionaire Len Blavatnik ready to buy a movie studio?

The Ukrainian-born entrepreneur, who sprung $3.3 billion for Warner Music in 2011, is musing to friends that he’d like to grab a Hollywood studio.

Our On the Money spies speculate that Len has his sights on putting the band back together with his company’s former sibling, Warner Bros. Entertainment.

Of course AT&T has first dibs on Warner — the studio behind “Suicide Squad,” starring Margot Robbie — given the telecom’s $85 billion offer for Time Warner, but that doesn’t stop movie moguls who might be angling for a breakup.

Blavatnik has been a quiet investor in both movie and TV projects through his AI Film label, and recently backed a TV production joint venture with BBC Worldwide.

Blavatnik, worth $16.7 billion, has coveted a studio for some time, sources say, but whether he will pull the trigger is anyone’s guess.

“It’s Oscar time. It’s when everyone covets owning a studio,” a source told On the Money.

FT : New UK property trust targets bond-like income

New UK property trust targets bond-like income
LXi Reit taps shift in investor demand for security over capital growth

A new real estate investment trust preparing for a London listing will buy properties with ultra-long leases to tap into investor appetite for bond-like returns.

LXi Reit, whose board includes senior figures in the UK property industry, will this week announce plans for a £200m flotation in February, according to a person familiar with the plans. The trust will be able to issue up to 200m additional shares through a placing programme in its first year.

It is the latest in a series of flotations and equity raises tapping into demand for steady income in a low-yield environment, particularly among pension funds and insurance companies which need to match long-term liabilities.

The shift in investor focus from growth to income has been further boosted by fears that capital growth in the current property cycle is drawing to an end, according to analysts.

The new investment trust, run by the private equity real estate firm Osprey Equity Partners, will buy properties with 20- or 30-year inflation-protected leases, such as hotels, industrial properties and retail sites.

This profile is similar to that of Secure Income Reit, a fund whose management company is chaired by Nick Leslau, the well-known property investor.

Shares in Secure Income Reit, which owns assets including 55 Travelodge hotels and the theme parks Alton Towers and Thorpe Park, have outperformed all other London-listed property stocks over the past year, with a rise of 19.4 per cent, according to Canaccord Genuity figures. By contrast, developers, especially those with exposure to London, experienced falls as large as 26 per cent.

Secure Income now has a market capitalisation of almost £720m after raising £140m in a heavily oversubscribed placing last October.

Another property fund focused on long leases, Impact Healthcare Reit, is planning a £180m flotation in March and will invest in residential care homes. Civitas Social Housing, the first Reit investing in social homes, was oversubscribed ahead of its £350m float in November, also targeting long-term inflation-linked yields.

Analysts at the investment bank Stifel said earlier this month that investors had shifted away from seeking growth, including harnessing rises in land values, and towards income from the property sector.

“The disparity between the two really became apparent post the EU referendum as investors sought out security and income over capital growth,” they said.

Major insurers, including Standard Life and M&G, run unlisted income real estate funds but until recently this sector has been difficult to access through the public markets.

LXi will target a dividend yield of at least 5 per cent a year. Its board will be chaired by Stephen Hubbard, who also chairs the UK division of CBRE, the world’s largest firm of property advisers.

>>> What to look at this Week End - 28th & 29th of January 2017

Weekly Performance
Dow +1.34% S&P +1.03% Nasdaq +1.90% Russell +1.39% Mexico +2.35% (+5.79% in $) BRazil +3.26% (+4.36% in $) Nikkei +1.72% Hang Seng +2.07% CSI +1.76% Shanghai +1.87% EuroStoxx +0.12% FTSE -0.19% (+1.26% in $) CAC -0.22% Dax+1.58% Ibex +1.32% MIB -0.77% SMI +1.26%
US stock markets reached new all-time highs this week when the Dow broke the psychological barrier of 20K while digesting the opening salvos of a Trump administration. Investors quickly saw he means business regarding several of his campaign promises. A flurry of executive orders began with the reopening of the Keystone and Dakota pipelines, touting it as a move to create jobs. By Friday, a formal meeting with Mexico in Washington had been cancelled after the Administration warned of a potential 20% border tax if Mexico was unwilling to renegotiate NAFTA or discuss reimbursement for the construction of a boarder wall. The Peso came under pressure yet again, and worries of a looming trade war were creeping higher. Some of that was assuaged on Friday after President Trump and Mexico President Pena Nieto spoke by phone and each called it a productive conversation. Overall, stock markets seemed to pay little attention to global trade concerns outside of the US retailing sector, which lagged notably. The volatility index meandered lower, to levels not seen since 2014 and trading volumes were muted in a sign of investor complacency despite a steady flow of geopolitical and corporate headlines. For the week the Dow rose 1.3%, the S&P added 1% and the NASDAQ finished up just under 2%.

Macro :
- Multinational Firms Pull EU144b From Belgium Since 2011: De Tijd
- Rothschild & Co. Co-CEO Says M&A Pipeline Above Yr-Ago: Investir
- Brazil Govt Preparing ’Mega-Auction’ of Pre-Salt Areas: Estadao
- Bank of China Weighs Dublin Move on Brexit: Sunday Independent
- FT : Markets enjoying a sugar high that will not last (Lawrence Summers) - http://on.ft.com/2k68fKD
- FT : Profit warnings from UK companies forecast to rise in 2017, Report by EY suggests 2016 figures ‘flattered to deceive’ - http://on.ft.com/2kIhj7G 
- Generic-Drug Price Pressure Doesn't Worsen Yet Remains in 2017

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Germany Plans to Buy EU1B of Lockheed Martin Planes: Spiegel
- ALV GY : Allianz Said to Weigh Offering AUD15/Share for QBE: Handelsblatt (12.33 on Friday -
- BMPS IM : Paschi Reviewing Options on NPLs in New Business Plan: Falciai
- BT/A LN : BT Italy False Accounting Was Going On for 10 Years: Telegraph
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank CEO Cryan Says EU Needs to Change: Welt
- ENGI FP : Engie Gets Financing to Build $1.2b Saudi Arabia Power Plant
- FCCN LN : Under Armour in Talks to Buy French Connection Store: Telegraph
- G IM : Intesa Chmn: Generali Not on Agenda of Bank Meetings Next Week
- MC FP : LVMH’s Biver Considering Retirement in 7 Years: NZZ am Sonntag
- MGGT LN : Elliott Sells Stake in Meggitt After Failing to Find Buyer for Aerospace Supplier
- ORA FP : FT Article interview of Arcep Director on Risk of content investment - in your inbox
- CFR VX : Montblanc Is Developing New ‘Smart’ Watch Straps, CEO Tells SoZ
- RDSA NA : Shell, Total Plan Battery Charging Points at Gas Stations: FT
- TSCO LN : Tesco's bid for Booker faces lengthy investigation by UK competition regulator
- SNAP IPO : Snap Said to Publicly File for IPO Late Next Week: Recode - http://bit.ly/2kcONOp
- FP FP : Shell, Total Plan Battery Charging Points at Gas Stations: FT
- VOW3 GY : VW Recalls 342,867 Audi A5, Q5, A4 Allroad, A6 on Coolant Pumps
- VOW3 GY : VW Recalls 234,054 MY2011-2017 Audi Q5 for Air-Bag Inflator
- VOW3 GY : Luxembourg’s Pension Fund Said to Blacklist Volkswagen: FT
- VOW3 GY : VW Dealer Says 20% of U.S. Diesel Sell-Back Customers Buying VWs

>>> Tesco's bid for Booker faces lengthy investigation by UK competition regulat

Tesco's bid for Booker faces lengthy investigation by UK competition regulator - reports

Tesco’s [LON:TSCO] GBP 3.9bn (EUR 4.57bn) takeover bid for the UK-based wholesaler Booker Group [LON:BOK] faces lengthy scrutiny from the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), The Sunday Times reported.
Competitors said the proposed takeover would give Tesco a market share of 20% at a minimum in convenience stores and would increase its total market share in groceries to higher than 30%.
The item went on to quote Ocado [LON:OCDO] chairman Stuart Rose, who said the CMA will carefully scrutinise the deal, adding that it would mean Tesco will effectively be a supplier to small shopkeepers.
Another senior figure in the sector said standalone retailers will try to delay and derail the deal, with the assistance of the Association of Convenience Stores, the article continued.
Some parties have urged the CMA to consider the wider implications of the deal, which will lead to Tesco supplying the catering sector, the report said.
Tesco chief executive Dave Lewis and Booker CEO Charles Wilson said they had received advice saying CMA will not be overly concerned due to the franchise status of 5,500 Booker convenience stores, the item continued. It is thought that the advice was provided by lawyers at Freshfields, according to the report.
The article noted Tesco in a previous deal, its acquisition of the convenience store chain T&S Stores in 2002, successfully argued that convenience stores and supermarkets were in different categories.
Separately, the newspaper said Lewis has promised that the takeover will yield cost savings of GBP 175m per year inside three years.
The Sunday Telegraph quoted Lewis, who said his main concern with regards to antitrust issues was that large consumer goods companies would be worried that the enlarged group would be able put pressure on them on price.
Booker supplies some convenience stores including Londis and Budgens that are competitors with Tesco’s small outlets, the item noted.
Lewis said the enlarged group will try to resist price increases by the major consumer brands, according to the report.
A Mail on Sunday report quoted a senior retail figure who said that Lewis said CMA might require Tesco to guarantee that consumers will benefit from the price savings.
The deal would give Tesco an additional 2% share of the UK grocery market, according to analysts cited by the report. That CMA may consider that increased share to be too much, the item added.
Lewis said the takeover would not increase number of stores under the Tesco brand and argued that the deal does not pose a threat to suppliers. The CEO claimed that food producers and suppliers had already endorsed the deal, without identifying those parties.
One executive at a rival grocery company said suppliers would have concerns about the implications of the deal for their profits. Most of the additional profit to come from the takeover would be derived from suppliers, the executive said, adding that the enlarged group could have a market share of more than 50% on some consumer brands.
Separately, the report said the Grocery Code Adjudicator, a regulator established after the last regulatory inquiry into the UK supermarket sector, does not have jurisdiction over wholesalers such as Booker.
The item went on to cite supermarket sources who said the adjudicator’s role would need to be larger. A source said reducing buying costs is the driving force behind the merger, and therefore it would not be too much for the CMA to ask that consumers should see some of the benefits.
However, the report went on to cite sources familiar with the CMA’s remit, who said enforcement of pricing controls may be difficult. The CMA would not comment, the report said.
The newspaper went on to cite an analyst who said bringing together Lewis and Charles Wilson, Booker’s well respected chief executive, is a positive aspect of the proposed deal. The analyst predicted longer-term cost efficiencies of GBP 600m annually.
Separately, an analytical report in The Sunday Times said Tesco non-executive Richard Cousins resigned in December due to his opposition to the Booker deal. Cousins said Tesco needs to simplify its business rather than make it more complex, according to the report.
Tesco said on Friday, 27 January that the Booker deal was the reason for Cousins’ resignation from the board, but did not give further details, according to The Mail on Sunday item.
Booker shares gained 29.2p to close at 212.3p on Friday, 27 January, giving the company a market capitalisation of GBP 3.77bn.

FT : Markets enjoying a sugar high that will not last (Lawrence Summers)

Last week, the Trump rally continued as the Dow crossed 20,000 and the president issued a celebratory tweet. How much does this mean? To what extent is it a vindication of the economic policy approaches pursued by the new administration? Will the post-election rally continue? No one knows these answer and market timing is a fool’s game but I remain persuaded that markets and the economy are most likely enjoying a sugar high that will not last a year.

First, Dow 20,000 is a meaningless benchmark and crossing it means little. It is numerology not analysis to focus on round numbers. The Dow is an odd and arbitrary index that weights companies by their share price not their market value. It is highly limited in who is included, with Goldman Sachs accounting for over 20 per cent of the gain in the 30-stock index since election day.

Second, as Bob Rubin constantly reminded his colleagues in the Clinton administration, “markets go up, markets go down” and it is a mistake to judge policy on immediate market reactions rather than concentrating on fundamentals. The observation that the best post-election pre-inauguration performance of the stock market in the last 100 years occurred during Herbert Hoover’s transition underscores this point, as does the market’s poor performance during the Roosevelt and Obama transitions.

Third, there are indicators in markets of possible trouble ahead. While financial stocks have been very strong over the last several months, insider sales have soared.

Despite what most observers see as a highly uncertain environment, market expectations of near-term volatility are near record lows, suggesting scope for sudden disillusionment. Rapid inflows into mutual funds could easily go into reverse.

Fourth, the fundamental basis for a big market rally is very unclear. If “pro-business policies” were key over time it would not be the case that Democrat administrations have consistently seen stronger markets than Republican ones over the last 70 years. Recall also that nearly half of S&P 500 revenue is earned abroad and will not be enhanced by new US domestic policies but may be hurt by new nationalist measures. It is far from clear that corporate tax reform on the scale envisioned by the new administration will be passed this year and even the hallmark 1986 Act had only modest stock market impacts. The impact of regulatory changes will be felt only in some sectors and may be offset by new populist measures such as restrictions on pharmaceutical pricing.

Fifth, and most important, new governments with authoritarian tendencies have historically brought about bull markets even before they led to disaster. Governments with much stronger authoritarian tendencies than anything plausible in the US, like those of Hitler or Mussolini, nonetheless saw strong markets in their early years.

I am not sure which is more difficult: predicting what President Donald Trump will do next or timing the market. Either way, after the events of the last week it is much easier to imagine downside than upside scenarios.

FT : Profit warnings from UK companies forecast to rise in 2017

Profit warnings from UK companies forecast to rise in 2017
Report by EY suggests 2016 figures ‘flattered to deceive’

Profit warnings by UK listed companies tailed off towards the end of 2016, reflecting relative economic stability after the Brexit vote, but 2017 could be much tougher for British groups, according to a report by EY, the accounting firm.

Quoted British companies issued 73 profit warnings in the last three months of 2016 compared with 100 during the same period in 2015, said the EY report.

With Britons having voted in a referendum in June last year to leave the EU, the number of warnings in the second half of 2016 “reflects relative stability in both the UK and global economy”, added EY.

Alan Hudson, EY’s head of restructuring in the UK, said: “The headline numbers show the UK economy weathering the initial impact of the Brexit vote remarkably well.” However, he added: “We expect 2017 to be . . . much tougher.”

Since the start of 2017 there has already been a marked uptick in companies prompting analysts to rein in earnings forecasts.

These include BT, Pearson, Next, Bovis Homes, Premier Foods and Lamprell. “There have been 21 profit warnings in the first 25 days of January this year compared with 15 in the first 25 days of 2016,” said EY.

The fall-off in profit warnings in the last quarter of 2016 compared with the corresponding period in 2015 “flattered to deceive”, said Mr Hudson.

Warnings at the end of 2015 jumped following the collapse in the oil price. The overall figures in 2016 also masked a stark divergence between midsized companies in the FTSE 250 and the 100 largest companies in the FTSE 100.

The number of profit warnings from FTSE 100 companies fell from 16 in the first half of 2016 to seven in the second half. By contrast, the number of warnings by FTSE 250 companies rose from 23 in the first half to 31 in the second half.

According to EY, the fourth quarter of 2016 marked a three-year high in the number of warnings from midsized FTSE 250 companies.

In part, this was because of rising costs, as a result of sterling’s weakness against other currencies since the Brexit referendum.

Many companies are struggling with uncertainty over pricing, and 27 per cent of the profit warnings by UK companies in the fourth quarter of 2016 were linked to cancellations and contract delays. None of these pressures are easing off, said EY.

Retailers and support services companies issued more profit warnings than groups in other sectors last year.

There was a sharp rise in repeat warnings. Half of the companies that issued warnings during the fourth quarter of 2016 had done so before last year.

Essentra, Cobham and Mitie have issued several warnings in the past year.

(TechCrunch) Apple has allegedly begun removing Iranian iOS apps from the App st

Apple has allegedly begun removing Iranian iOS apps from the App store

Reports coming out of Iran suggest that Apple has allegedly started removing iOS apps originating from the country’s startups and developers. Prior to this, Apple had, in a limited manner, opened up its App Store to Iranians in September 2016 and appeared to be gradually lifting some of the limitations, periodically, since then.

According to credible tech news site Techrasa, the biggest Iranian e-commerce service, Digikala, which has millions of users, had its app removed from the App Store just a few days ago.

While there is no official App Store available for the territory of Iran, many companies registered their apps as being outside of Iran to be able to get onto the store.

Digikala uses the Shaparak payment system which is completely isolated from international systems, so would in theory not contravene Apple’s T&Cs.

In addition, several banks in Iran have apps for the iOS platform which are often side-loaded onto phones.

Iranians are ‘gadget-mad’, with an estimated 40M smartphones in the country, of which there are an estimated 6M iPhones. The population is around 82 million, with an average age of under 30 years old. Reportedly, around 100,000 iPhones are smuggled into the country every month. Obviously this leads to an equally large market for after-sale services and accessories. In other words, if Apple could fully engage with the market, they would find it a highly lucrative one.

However the Iranian Transactions and Sanctions Regulations issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury puts blocks on this market. According to Techrasa, Apple has sent the following to Iranian startups attempting to upload apps:

“Unfortunately, there is no App Store available for the territory of Iran. Additionally, apps facilitating transactions for businesses or entities based in Iran may not comply with the Iranian Transactions Sanctions Regulations (31CFR Part 560) when hosted on the App Store. For these reasons, we are unable to accept your application at this time. We encourage you to resubmit your application once international trade laws are revised to allow this functionality.”

TechCrunch has reached out to Apple for comment and will update this post if we get a response.