Re/code.net : McLaren or not, Apple needs a carmaker partner

McLaren or not, Apple needs a carmaker partner
The iPhone maker needs someone to help it in the fast-moving autonomous vehicle arena.

Apple is clearly grappling with two key questions as it turns its eye to the car market.
Just what role does it see itself playing? And how much auto industry know-how does it need?
The build-or-buy question could be a piece of the recent “reset” Apple has had within its stealth auto operation.
The company has hired a large number of people with car experience, especially on the electric car front. But it has also held talks with a number of luxury carmakers as early as a year ago, several sources confirmed. And according to a report Wednesday from the Financial Times, British carmakerMcLaren is among those manufacturers with which Apple has been having discussions.

McLaren officially denied the reports that Apple is considering acquiring the carmaker, though the Financial Times wrote that they stand by their story.

It can be helpful to look at how Apple has entered new areas in the past, as it did with the iPod (music) and the iPhone (cellular). In both cases, it hired a bunch of people with subject knowledge, but also partnered more extensively at the beginning as it got up to speed.
With the original iPod, it didn’t have its own operating system or chips or desktop software, relying on others to provide each of those key components. Much of that first iPod’s guts came from a company called PortalPlayer, while the key differentiating component — a smaller-sized hard drive — came from Toshiba. Apple did have the foresight to basically lock up supply so that rivals were stuck using larger drives meant for notebook computers.

With phones, Apple had a short-lived and ill-fated partnership with Motorola that led to a disappointing product, the ROKR, but gave Apple some useful knowledge. It also partnered tightly with a single carrier, Cingular (now AT&T).
But while moving from PCs into music and phones were big leaps for Apple, getting into the car business is way, way more complex.
Software may well come to define the car experience. But building a car involves so many things beyond software. Sure, you have to drop-test a cellphone and pass FCC radiation standards. But with cars, the safety and manufacturing issues automakers may face have very real and often dangerous implications.
Just this month, there have been 45 recalls of vehicles made by incumbent automakers. Even Tesla — which has had trouble meeting its production deadlines due to manufacturing delays — had to recall 2,700 Model X cars in April due to a faulty hinge that could cause its seats to collapse inward.
Apple ideally needs three things from whichever company it either buys or works with. It needs a company that knows how to manufacture cars; whose ideas and skills for the future outweigh its focus on its legacy gas-based car business; and, perhaps toughest of all, who’s willing to work with Apple, a company well known for not always being the greatest of partners.
Finding a car company that meets all these criteria is no easy task and explains why Apple has been willing to look far and wide, perhaps going so far as a tony British maker of race cars.
At first blush, McLaren appears to provide less than other carmakers of what Apple needs most, as it isn’t a manufacturing giant. The company hand-crafts its luxury sports cars and Formula 1 racers.
However, it’s worth remembering that Tesla, too, started at the high end and worked its way down. The company started with a $105,000 Roadster and only produced a total of 2,500 of the cars.
But even Tesla had to turn to a partner to jump-start its foray into electric vehicle production. Then-CEO and co-founder of Tesla Martin Eberhard admitted that neither he nor his co-founder Marc Tarpenning, nor the company’s chairman Elon Musk, had a background in automotive engineering.That’s why Tesla turned to supercar manufacturer Lotus Cars.
Tesla’s relationship with Lotus was threefold: Tesla licensed safety and structure technology from Lotus and contracted Lotus Engineering to help design and engineer the car, and Lotus Cars was the contract manufacturer for the Tesla Roadster.
While McLaren may not be able to necessarily fulfill Apple’s manufacturing needs, the company does know a thing or two about car engines, something you don’t get by designing iPhones and Macs.
It’s also important to remember that of the tech companies that are making moves into the automotive space, Musk himself said Apple would be the most direct competitor to Tesla. The company has also seen an influx of former Tesla engineers, to which Musk responded by calling Apple the “Tesla graveyard.”
It stands to reason, then, that Apple’s car project, dubbed “Project Titan,” may begin with a high-end, low-volume “supercar.” With an asset like McLaren, it’s certainly possible.

>>> What to look at today - 22nd of September 2016

Dow+0.90% S&P+1,09% Nasdaq +1.03% Russell +1.36%
US market closed higher after long awaited FOMC Meeting. EIA reported that crude oil stockpiles declined by 6.20 million barrels (consensus: +3.35 million) while gasoline stockpiles fell by 3.20 million barrels (consensus: -0.57 million). The benchmark index gained lockstep with crude oil, but was unable to clear technical resistance near the 2150/2153 price level. The broader market retraced the bulk of its opening gain by midday. The energy component settled higher by 2.6% ($45.22/bbl; +$1.17). The FOMC opted to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50%. However, three committee members dissented, indicating that they supported an interest rate hike at the September meeting. Additionally, the committee lowered rate hike expectations going forward, estimating one rate hike in 2016, two to three in 2017, and three in 2018. All eleven sectors ended in the green with telecom services (+1.3%), materials (+1.5%), utilities (+2.1%), and energy (+2.1%) leading the advance. financial space (+0.7%) finished behind the broader market as participants continued to adjust rate hike expectations for the year. The fed funds futures market indicates that the implied probability of a rate hike at the November meeting has declined to 14.5% (from 22.0%) while the probability of a rate hike at the December meeting rose to 63.4% (from 59.2%). Volume were in line with 873mil shares. US After Hours OCRX +23% on trial update, NVAX +9% continued strength/insider buy disclosure... MLHR -10%, JBL -4%, BBBY -1% following earnings/guidance. Asian Markets aret rading higher following move in the US. Japan closed today.

Nikkei Closed Hang Seng +0.91% CSI +0.84% Shanghai +0.68%

Eur$ 1.1197 CNH 6.6767 CNY 6.6689 JPY 100.24 GBP 1.3052 CHF 0.9732 RUB 63.84 WTI$ 45.78 (+0.97%)

S&P -0.07% EuroStoxx +0.54% Dax +0.56% SMI +0.54%

Macro :
- Divided Fed Holds Fire, Signals 2016 Rate Increase Still Likely
- Yellen Rebuffs Pressure to Hike as Fed Gives Economy Room to Run
- Cohen’s Point72 Goes on Biggest Ever Hiring Spree in Asia (1)


Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : WTO Expected to Rule Against EU on Airbus Subsidies - WSJ
- AREVA FP : Areva’s Finland Atomic Plant to Operate in 2018, Figaro Says
- BGN IM : Banca Generali in Talks to Buy UniCredit’s FinecoBank: Reuters
- CABK SM : CaixaBanks Makes Compulsory EU1.134/Shr Bid for Banco BPI
- AM FP : French Defense Minister Le Drian to Visit India on Friday
- DB1 GY : German Regional Stock Exchanges Evaluating Merger, FAZ Reports
- EDF FP : EDF Cut to A- from A by S&P on Hinkley Point Project Risks
- EDF FP : EDF Sees 2016 Ebitda Target EU16.3b-EU16.6b, Saw EU16.3b-EU16.8b
- ERICB SS : Ericsson Said Planning to Shut Down Production in Sweden: SVD
- GILD US : Gilead Stops Phase 2/3 Trial for Patients W/ Ulcerative Colitis
- KCR1V FH : said it has tens of interested parties in Stahl, its crane systems, according to Kauppalehti Online.
- LHA GY : Verdi Calls on Eurowings Cabin Crew to Strike Thursday
- MBWS FP : Marie Brizard 1H Rev., Ebitda Falls, Sees 2016 Ebitda ~EU20m
- MYL US : Mylan Says Profit Will Be ‘Considerably’ Less on Generic EpiPen
- COX FP : Nicox 1H Net Loss Widens to EU24.2m; R&D Shift to Cut Costs
- RBI AV : Raiffeisen Postpones Merger Evaluation Results Until Early Oct.
- RKET GY :
- SHP LN : Shire Hemophilia Drugs Restricted in UNH Formulary: Bernstein
- TGYM IM : Technogym CEO Confident on Growth Potential, Market Share Gain
- TUI GY : TUI Joins Air France in Studying Low-Cost, Long-Haul: Tribune
- UTDI GY : United Internet to Offer Users Power Contracts: Sueddeutsche Z.
- VZ US : Verizon Said to Be in Advanced Talks to Buy Vessel: Recode
- VOW3 GY : EU Says VW Commits to ‘EU-Wide Action Plan’ for Consumers
- VOW3 GY : VW’s Seat Stops Sale of Some Ateca Models on Emissions, FAZ Says

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 22nd of September 2

>>> Up
*GLENCORE RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT LIBERUM
*HOLMEN RAISED TO BUY AT NORDEA
*INFINEON RAISED TO ’OUTPERFORM’ AT MAIN FIRST BANK AG
*JERONIMO MARTINS RAISED TO REDUCE VS SELL AT ALPHAVALUE
*PRYSMIAN SPA RAISED TO BUY AT HSBC
*TELECOM ITALIA RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE

>>> Down
*ACACIA MINING CUT TO REDUCE VS HOLD AT PEEL HUNT
*CENTRICA CUT TO UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES
*PEARSON CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE
*SUBSEA 7 CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT MACQUARIE

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*AEGEAN AIRLINES RATED NEW BUY AT HSBC; PT EU8
*BBA AVIATION RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS; PT 280P
*CHURCHILL DOWNS RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*DENTSPLY SIRONA RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*DEUTSCHE BANK RATED HOLD AT HSBC, PT EU14; WAS RESTRICTED
*DUNELM GROUP RATED NEW BUY AT HSBC
*INTRALINKS HOLDINGS RATED NEW MARKET OUTPERFORM AT JMP
*NETLIST RATED NEW BUY AT B. RILEY
*STAFFLINE RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*SWEDISH MATCH RATED NEW HOLD AT BERENBERG, PT SEK312
*TARGOVAX RATED NEW BUY AT ARCTIC SECURITIES

>>> Call

>>> Golan Telecom sale talks at advanced stage, two parties interested

Golan Telecom sale talks at advanced stage, two parties interested

Golan Telecom, the Israeli telecommunications company, is at an advanced stage in talks to be sold to either a consortium that comprises the businessperson Gil Sharon and Elco Holdings; or to 018 Xfone, according to a report in Globes.
The report noted that Cellcom Israel, which has a network sharing agreement with Golan, and is owed money by Golan, announced that it is holding talks with both groups for a network sharing deal which will have an annual value of ILS 220m to ILS 250m (USD 66m).
The report claimed, based on unidentified sources, that the Sharon-Elco consortium is willing to sign an agreement sooner than its competitor, and as such may have a higher chance of winning the deal, since Golan owners are seeking to reach an agreement as soon as possible.
Cellcom noted that it cannot guarantee whether any deal for network sharing would be approved by the regulatory authorities.

>>> Asian Update

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: Equity rally restored as investors digest FOMC hold and BOJ regime change; RBNZ also stands pat with a dovish outlook

***Top US session headlines***
- FOMC HOLDS TARGET RATE RANGE AT 0.25-0.50%: AS EXPECTED; NEAR-TERM RISKS APPEAR ROUGHLY BALANCED; STRONGER CASE FOR HIKE BUT WAITING FOR MORE EVIDENCE; Vote 7-3: 3 dissents in favor of hike (George, Mester, Rosengren)
- OECD cuts 2017 global outlook, cuts 2017 global GDP from 3.0% to 2.9%; slow progress to open global markets to trade has added to slowdown
- DOE CRUDE: -6.2M V +3.5ME; GASOLINE: -3.2M V -0.5ME; DISTILLATE: +2.2M V 0ME

***Asia Notes/Observations***
- New Zealand central bank stands pat and reiterates further easing down the line despite more neutral expectations in the wake of higher dairy prices and better exports; Notes sustained weakness in headline inflation despite stable expectations; Reiterates call for decline in exchange rate; NZD most active decliner on the comments among FX majors.
- Oil price and energy sector rises on large draw in DOE inventories, post-FOMC dollar weakness. Gold and miners spike.
- Japan markets closed; USD/JPY remains under pressure just above ¥100 handle; Bernanke says BOJ has retained commitment to reach inflation target but muddled the message by maintaining JGB purchase target.
- Incoming RBA Gov Lowe speaks to House Economics Committee; maintains policy flexibility

***US markets on close: Dow +0.9%, S&P500 +1.1%, Nasdaq +1.0%***
- Best Sector in S&P500: Basic Materials
- Worst Sector in S&P500: Healthcare
- Biggest gainers: NEM +7.6%, ADBE +7.1%, FDX +6.9%, FCX +5.9%, APA +5.9%
- Biggest losers: NAVI -3.7%, NFLX -3.4%, KMX -2.0%, FTR -1.9%, WFC -1.6%

***VIX 13.30 (-2.6pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 0.78% (flat), 10-yr 1.67% (-2bp), 30-yr 2.40% (-3bp)***

***US movers afterhours***
- RHT +6.6%; Reports Q2 $0.55 v $0.54e, R$600M v $591Me; Raises FY17 $2.23-2.25 v $2.22e, R$2.42-2.44B v $2.40Be (prior $2.19-2.23, R$2.38-2.42B)
- BBBY +0.4%; Reports Q2 $1.11 v $1.17e, R$2.99B v $3.06Be
- JBL -4.8%; Reports Q4 $0.20 v $0.24e, R$4.43B v $4.38Be; to realign global capacity and administrative support infrastructure
- ALOG -5.0%; Reports Q4 $1.02 v $1.28 y/y, R$138.1M v $154.5M y/y
- MLHR -9.8%; Reports Q1 $0.60 v $0.62e, R$598.6M v $614Me; Guides Q2 $0.52-0.56 v $0.59e, R$580-600M v $601Me

***After extended session***
- MSFT: Exec: Sees huge potential in China rising cloud market - China Daily

***Equity Futures (00:00ET): S&P e-mini flat, Dax flat, FTSE100 +0.2%***

***FX / Commodities ranges (00:00ET): ***
- EUR 1.1185-1.12; JPY 100.10-100.50; AUD 0.7610-0.7650, NZD 0.7325-0.7370
- Gold +0.4% at 1,337; Oil +0.9% at $45.75 / brl; Copper +0.4% at $2.17/lb

**** Asian Equity Markets (00:00ET) ****
- Nikkei closed, Hang Seng +1.2%, ASX +0.8%, Shanghai +0.8%, Kospi +1.2%

***Key economic data: ***
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) LEAVES OFFICIAL CASH RATE UNCHANGED AT 2.00%; AS EXPECTED
- (TW) Taiwan Aug Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.0%e

***Speakers / Press / Key Themes***
China:
- Shanghai Composite extending gains above 3,050; near 2-week high
- PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.6513 V 6.6738 PRIOR (strongest Yuan setting since Aug 26th)
- Property Consultancy DTZ/Cushman & Wakefield: Shanghai real estate investment market likely to maintain double-digit growth in transaction value this year - Chinese press

Japan:
- Former Fed Chairman Bernanke: While BOJ did not take new measures, the new policy framework is good news since it includes commitment to ending deflation

Australia / New Zealand:
- RBA Gov Lowe: inflation to remain low for some time; Economy continue to be supported by low rates; Drag from the fall in mining investment will come to an end; Mining investment still has some way to fall, about 75% done; Increase in established home prices has stabilized; Business conditions have improved; Pockets of spare capacity in China economy, but do not want to overstate the problems.
- RBA Assistant Gov Kent: China is trying to balance growth with deleveraging; concern in China is on the quality of debt
- ANZ and ASB economists see RBNZ cutting rates again to 1.75% in November - NZ press

***Asia movers***
- Financials: Jinke Properties Group Co 000656.CN +10.0% (Sunac's subscription of shares); Premier Investments PMV.AU -3.9% (FY16 result); OzForex Group OFX.AU -5.4% (Macquarie cuts to Neutral); Vanke 000002.CN +5.6% (China property market sentiment)
- Industrials: Hanjin Shipping Co 117930.KR +29.6% (Korean Air approves financial aid); Nufarm NUF.AU +2.6% (acquisition speculation)
- Materials: Saracen Mineral SAR.AU +9.3%, Resolute Mining RSG.AU +6.1%, Newcrest Mining NCM.AU +6.6%; Northern Star NST.AU +6.1%, Evolution Mining EVN.AU +5.8% (gold rises)
- Energy: China Shenhua Energy Co 1088.HK +3.1% (to increase output)

>>> US After Hours Summary: OCRX +23% on trial update, NVAX +9% contin


After Hours Summary: OCRX +23% on trial update, NVAX +9% continued strength/insider buy disclosure... MLHR -10%, JBL -4%, BBBY -1% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance:N/A

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: OCRX +22.5% (completes enrollment in STOP-ALF, a Phase 2a clinical trial to evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of Ornithine Phenylacetate in patients with Acute Liver Failure), AQXP +10.1% (Baker Bros increases active stake to 45.1%), URRE +9.6% (to acquire certain placer mining claims comprising the Sal Rica lithium brine project from Mesa Exploration), NVAX +8.8% (Director disclosed purchase of 100K shares, worth total of $144.9K; also follows today's 30%+ move higher), GALT +4.6% (continued strength following 35% move higher), IRBT +2.8% (light volume - awarded $23 mln US Navy contract modification), KDMN +2.1% (doses first patient in a Phase 2 clinical trial of KD025 for the treatment of chronic graft-versus-host disease; also initiates placebo-controlled Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating KD025 in Psoriasis), SRPT +1.1% (announces a $225 mln underwritten public offering of common stock), ADMP +0.6% (Adamis Pharma higher on light volume as Mylan CEO appears before Congress), SFLY +0.5% (modestly higher in after hours - attributed to Robert W. Baird suggesting today's move is overreaction to the new competing Amazon product)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: MLHR -9.9%, JBL -3.9% (also details restructuring plan, sees approximately $195 mln in pre-tax restructuring and other related costs), ALOG -3.3% (ticking lower), BBBY -1.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: CPK -2% (light volume; files common stock shelf offering for an undisclosed amount; commences underwritten public offering of common stock with an aggregate value not to exceed $52 mln)

>>> US Close Dow+0.90% S&P+1,09%


Closing Market Summary: Nasdaq Closes at Record High Following Fed Decision

The stock market ended the midweek affair broadly higher as participants responded to the latest policy statements from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. The S&P 500 (+1.1%) finished slightly ahead of the Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.9%).

The broader market began the day on a higher note as a leg higher in crude oil and an accommodative policy decision from the Bank of Japan boosted risk appetite. The central banked opted to maintain its key policy rate (-0.10%) while shifting away from a monetary base target. Instead the central bank will establish interest rate controls designed to steepen the yield curve through quantitative and qualitative easing flows. The foreign exchange market appeared disappointed with the plan as the yen strengthened throughout the session. The dollar/yen pair finished lower by 1.2% (100.52).

Equity indices extended their gains in the opening hour as participants pored over weekly inventory data from the Department of Energy. The EIA reported that crude oil stockpiles declined by 6.20 million barrels (consensus: +3.35 million) while gasoline stockpiles fell by 3.20 million barrels (consensus: -0.57 million). The benchmark index gained lockstep with crude oil, but was unable to clear technical resistance near the 2150/2153 price level. The broader market retraced the bulk of its opening gain by midday. The energy component settled higher by 2.6% ($45.22/bbl; +$1.17).

The major averages recovered in the final hour of trade, notching new session highs as participants mulled over the latest policy statement from the FOMC and commentary from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The FOMC opted to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50%. However, three committee members dissented, indicating that they supported an interest rate hike at the September meeting. Additionally, the committee lowered rate hike expectations going forward, estimating one rate hike in 2016, two to three in 2017, and three in 2018.

The benchmark index finished near its best level of the day, climbing above technical resistance near the 2160 price level. All eleven sectors ended in the green with telecom services (+1.3%), materials (+1.5%), utilities (+2.1%), and energy (+2.1%) leading the advance.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (+1.8%) finished ahead of the broader market as FedEx (FDX 173.86, +11.21) led the index. The stock jumped 6.9% after reporting a top- and bottom-line beat and increasing its full-year earnings outlook. On the flipside, airline names rounded out the group after American Airlines (AAL 34.67, -0.48) was downgraded to "Market Perform" from "Outperform" at Raymond James. The broader U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS 22.38, +0.02) inched higher by 0.1%.

In the influential technology sector (+1.1%), the high-beta chipmakers outperformed, evidenced by the 1.4% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Meanwhile, Adobe Systems (ADBE 107.78, +7.16) notched a new all-time high (108.22) after beating top- and bottom-line estimates for the quarter and issuing above-consensus fourth-quarter guidance. Conversely, top-weighted Apple (AAPL 113.55, -0.02) finished behind the broader sector. 

Health care providers outperformed in the health care sector (+1.0%) as Anthem (ANTM 128.59, +2.83) rallied 2.3%. The stock rebounded after being removed from the US 1 List at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch in the prior session. Separately, biotechnology extended its recent winning streak as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 297.53, +1.83) advanced 0.6%. This follows yesterday's 1.4% gain. 

The financial space (+0.7%) finished behind the broader market as participants continued to adjust rate hike expectations for the year. The fed funds futures market indicates that the implied probability of a rate hike at the November meeting has declined to 14.5% (from 22.0%) while the probability of a rate hike at the December meeting rose to 63.4% (from 59.2%). In the group, Wells Fargo (WFC 45.83, -0.73) fell 1.6% after being downgraded to "Neutral" from "Overweight" at JP Morgan.

Treasuries ended on a mixed note with the long end of the curve outperforming. The yield on the 2-yr note finished flat (0.77%) while the yield on the 10-yr note declined four basis points (1.65%).

Today's participation was roughly in-line with the recent average as more than 873 million shares changed hands on the NYSE floor.

Today's economic data was limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Index: 

  • The MBA Mortgage Index indicated that mortgage applications declined 7.3% in the week ending September 17. This followed a 4.2% gain in the prior week.

Tomorrow's economic data will include weekly initial claims (consensus 262k) and the FHFA Housing Price Index for July, which will cross the wires at 8:30 ET and 9:00 ET, respectively. Separately, Existing Home Sales for August (consensus 5.50 million) will be released at 10:00 ET. 

  • Russell 2000: +9.6% YTD
  • S&P 500: +5.8% YTD
  • Nasdaq: +5.8% YTD
  • Dow Jones +5.0% YTD 

>>> FOMC : Flash analysis

Whatever your anticipations may have been, that has to be one of the dullest Fed meeting ever… In other words, hawks and doves may be equally disappointed and/or plain disoriented on that one!
The main points of (dis?)interest are as follows:
Ø “The committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives” even though three members were in favor of a hike (a quite unusual level of dissent actually)
Ø “ Near term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced”
Ø Downgrading of 2016 forecasts for both growth (from 2% to 1.8%) and inflation (from 1.4% to 1.3%)
Ø “Investment spending has been quite weak for some time”
Ø “PCE inflation still short of 2% objective”
Ø New dot plot implies a 25bps hike in 2016 and two hikes in 2017 (against three previously). Also note more dispersion in the dot-plot
Ø More interestingly possibly, no meaningful mention was made of international developments

In a nutshell, the message is that, first, rates should be hiked by 25bps (no less but no more) in December and, second, that, even though dissenters are clearly gaining clout within the FOMC, the pace of liftoff will remain as cautious as can be… Should be rather good news for risk assets overall IN THE VERY SHORT TERM; and in that regard the fact that Janet Yellen said that “asset values are not out of line with historical norms” may not be purely coincidental!
In the longer run, though, the question any investor should ask oneself at this stage is: if hiking rates by 25bps to 0.75% is sooo challenging, what is the real UNDERLYING health of the U.S. economy?... Also, those, including ourselves, who anticipated meaningful curve steepening ahead may have to tone down their expectations a bit now. Therefore expect to see sellers on bounces on financials before too long.
But, meanwhile, indebted and leveraged sectors, commodity stocks in general and oil-related assets in particular (plus, and that is not a paradox, the most “boring” stocks) should logically see some kind of relief-buying, at least in the short term then again. We therefore maintain our overall “buy on dips” stance while clearly tweaking the sector bias as outlined above.
Finally, if we try to take a bit more distance with short term market vagaries, it is interesting to note that Janet Yellen said at one stage: “I do have concerns for the scope of monetary policy”. Well, we do share that concern; maybe not for the same reasons though…