FT : H2O and the saga of its illiquid bonds

H2O and the saga of its illiquid bonds
Intervention by French regulator caps a testing 12 months for London-based asset manager

In a rare intervention, France’s financial regulator has forced H2O Asset Management to suspend a series of its funds because of their exposure to illiquid debt.

The move by the AMF late last week came more than a year after the Financial Times first revealed that London-based H2O, which for years posted some of the most consistently high returns in European fund management, had substantial investments in hard-to-sell assets, with uncertainties over their valuations.

The AMF has never taken such draconian action against a fund manager the size of H2O, which managed nearly €22bn of assets at the end of June. Below the FT examines how the saga reached this point.

What are H2O’s illiquid investments?
H2O’s investments in private debt and unlisted shares are all linked to one man: Lars Windhorst.

The German financier, who is an investor in Hertha Berlin football club, owns a network of mostly private companies backed by thinly traded bonds. But some institutional investors have blanched at the 43-year-old’s turbulent history.

Last year, the FT reported that H2O had no such qualms, however, revealing that the asset manager owned well over €1bn of hard-to-sell bonds linked to the entrepreneur. They were held across funds that allowed retail investors to withdraw their money daily.

Despite the furore, H2O’s chief executive Bruno Crastes stuck by Mr Windhorst, describing him as “very talented”.

Why has the regulator stepped in now?
While H2O weathered last year’s storm, the asset manager has come under renewed pressure after several of its flagship funds lost more than 50 per cent of their value during the March turmoil triggered by the pandemic.

The losses were not related to its investments in private debt, but the collapse in the value of its funds made it harder for the asset manager to comply with EU rules governing open-ended funds, which place a 10 per cent cap on illiquid assets.

To solve this issue, H2O struck a deal with Mr Windhorst at the end of April to buy back his businesses’ illiquid stocks and bonds. Yet months later the deal remains incomplete. H2O said the AMF’s intervention was “motivated by valuation uncertainties” around these investments.

The fund manager marked down the value of these bonds severely last year, and KPMG, the auditor of several H2O funds, subsequently flagged the “uncertainty” around these “valuation methods".

While the French regulator supervises many of H2O’s funds, given the asset manager is based in London, the group falls under the purview of the British markets watchdog. The Financial Conduct Authority told the FT that it had been “working closely” with the AMF and other overseas regulators, and remained “in regular discussions” with H2O.

What is the status of Windhorst’s buyback?
The agreement looked like it could end the questions over the illiquid investments that have dogged H2O. Yet last week the asset manager described progress on the deal as “very partial”.

One reason for this is the sheer scale of the transactions required. A new investment vehicle set up by Mr Windhorst will purchase about €2bn of securities for about €1bn, according to people familiar with the deal.

“You can’t settle over €2bn of bonds in one week,” one person involved in the buyback told the FT.

The financier is also relying on others to help fund the buyback. The new vehicle investment vehicle — Evergreen Funding — is backed with a €1.25bn bond that carries a hefty 12.5 per cent annual interest rate. Mr Windhorst has tapped his sprawling network of contacts and business associates to drum up funds.

They include Ulrich Marseille, a German entrepreneur and former business partner of US president Donald Trump, according to people familiar with the matter. Mr Marseille did not respond to a request for comment.

Mr Marseille is also a former legal adversary of Mr Windhorst, having pursued the then young entrepreneur through the courts for the best part of a decade over repayment of a loan in the 2000s.

Has H2O ‘gated’ its funds?
Mr Crastes vowed last year that he would “never gate” the firm’s funds, drawing a sharp contrast with other asset managers exposed to illiquid assets, such as the UK’s Woodford Investment Management or Switzerland’s GAM.

Last week, the French regulator asked H2O to “suspend all subscriptions and redemptions” on three of its funds. H2O decided to freeze withdrawals on four additional open-ended funds, saying it was in the “best interests” of their investors.

The AMF has only used these powers once before. In contrast, that 2014 case concerned a small asset management company, where the funds were all owned by members of a single family.

However, H2O has said that, technically speaking, it has not gated its funds.

“H2O has taken the approach of using a sidepocket, which is an entirely different tool to gating under the French framework for liquidity risk management,” the asset manager told the FT.

Under French law, gating refers to a specific mechanism used to manage a rush of redemption requests. Instead, H2O has temporarily halted its funds, while it creates new vehicles to hold the private bonds, a process it says should take about four weeks.

While investors cannot access their money for at least a month, in legal terms H2O has not gated these funds.

What does the regulator’s intervention mean for Natixis?
The AMF’s move comes at a turbulent time for Natixis, H2O’s parent company, which last month replaced its chief executive after a two-year term marked by doubts over the bank’s business model and risk management.

H2O was previously the star performer in Natixis’ stable of asset management affiliates, which have their own independent management and risk control processes.

Jean Raby, the head of asset management at Natixis, vouched for the quality of the Windhorst-linked bonds last year, assuring investors that they were “quite diversified”. And while Natixis launched an internal audit into the matter, it has refused to make its findings public.

The bank has said it supported the actions taken by H2O over its funds, while stating that the regulator’s action had “no financial impact on Natixis”.

Not everyone agrees. Matthew Clark, an equity analyst at Mediobanca, said: “I do not share their confidence.”

He estimated that H2O contributed about a fifth of the group’s underlying earnings and argued that the latest troubles could have a reputational impact on Natixis’ broader asset management business.

However, other analysts, including at Jefferies and UBS, have maintained “buy” ratings on Natixis shares, believing that if H2O successfully separates its illiquid investments into new funds, it could be positive for the French lender

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FT : Wirecard and me: Dan McCrum on exposing a criminal enterprise

Wirecard and me: Dan McCrum on exposing a criminal enterprise
Intimidation, surveillance and conspiracy theories: inside the FT’s five-year investigation of a billion-dollar fraud


January 30 2019: it was mid-afternoon on a grey Wednesday in London when a dozen or so anonymous Twitter bots burst into life. “McCrums a criminal . . . Dannyboy McCRIM is GOING TO JAIL!!” they sang.

As this stream of online abuse gathered pace, another more formal voice joined the chorus, that of Heike Pauls, a respected and widely followed equity research analyst at Germany’s Commerzbank. The following morning, a research note to the bank’s clients was published. It was titled “More fake news.”

“Yesterday, serial offender Dan McCrum, journalist at the otherwise renowned FT, published another negative article about Wirecard,” Pauls wrote. “As before, McCrum’s article followed a visible increase in short [selling] during the past few weeks. We believe that market manipulation looks obvious . . . ”

She went on to say: “We are actually more concerned about [the] obvious active participation of the FT in market manipulation than about the allegations to the company. We believe that regulators need to take a serious look at the situation.”

At first, I thought the note was a hoax but, astoundingly, it was real. It was the latest episode in a skirmish that was to last 18 months, leaving me under attack as German banks and regulators waved away evidence of corporate criminality to place me at the heart of a conspiracy theory. At times, it seemed like the world had gone mad.

Wirecard was a pioneering payments processor from Munich that handled credit and debit card payments. A stock market darling that promised to make cash obsolete, the company had grown over two decades to become a member of the Dax index and, in the eyes of retail investors, a fintech giant that was the country’s answer to Silicon Valley. Pauls put its target value at €28bn, double that of Deutsche Bank.

The charge of criminality from Commerzbank — the idea that I, as a reporter, was somehow in league with speculators trying to damage a company by sending the share price crashing, and that the FT was OK with that — did not come as a complete shock. For many years, Wirecard executives, along with its band of corporate cheerleaders, had routinely dismissed critics as “criminal short-sellers” who would profit if the company’s share price fell.

I’d investigated Wirecard since 2014, following a tip that something was awry with the accounts. Together with the FT’s investigations team editor Paul Murphy and in-house libel lawyer Nigel Hanson, we had learnt what to expect from scrutinising the company: furious online abuse, hacking, electronic eavesdropping, physical surveillance and some of London’s most expensive lawyers.

But in the end, it all came crashing down. A couple of years after the Twitter bots attacked me, Wirecard is a smouldering wreck. The ex-chief executive, Markus Braun, is in jail, awaiting trial along with other colleagues, while the company’s former chief operating officer, Jan Marsalek, is on the run. This is the tale of what it was like to unravel and expose the reality of a criminal enterprise that relied on a network of professional enablers to keep in motion one of the biggest corporate frauds of the modern era.

My Wirecard odyssey first went public in April 2015, when I wrote a series of posts on Alphaville, the FT’s financial blog. Entitled The House of Wirecard, the series asked a simple question: do the company’s numbers add up?

Ten months later, Matt Earl and Fraser Perring, two professional investors acting anonymously at the time, published what became known as the Zatarra Report, named for a pseudonym used by Alexandre Dumas’ Count of Monte Cristo. This was an incendiary 100-page compendium of evidence and allegations that for years Wirecard had duped the major card networks run by Visa and Mastercard in order to process online gambling payments for American customers, something very much frowned upon by the US authorities at the time.

My article on the report in February 2016 triggered a furious legal response from Wirecard’s lawyers and caused a sharp intake of breath among the FT’s own legal team, since Zatarra threw allegations of fraud and money laundering around with abandon.

It was amid this tumult that Paul Murphy, who at the time edited FT Alphaville, took an odd phone call. A stock market speculator and gossip who Murphy spoke to in private on a pretty regular basis — call him Bill — wanted to make an introduction. Was Murphy really sure about “the stuff on Wirecard” on FT Alphaville, he asked? Bill said he was in touch with someone who vehemently disagreed. His name was Jan Marsalek.

Marsalek, then just 36 years old, was the chief operating officer of Wirecard and the mastermind of its dirty-tricks operation. A suave dealmaker who lived half his life in private jets and luxury hotels, he thrived where the worlds of business, crime, politics and spycraft intersect, a solid gold credit card tucked in the pocket of his designer suit. We now know that he had a range of secret-service contacts in Russia and Austria, as well as deploying at least a dozen private investigators in multiple countries. Documents seen by the FT indicate Wirecard had a broad toolkit at its disposal, ranging from a cast of social-media sock-puppets spouting propaganda to physical surveillance to sophisticated eavesdropping kit used to mirror iPhones.

However he’d done it, Marsalek had identified one of Murphy’s regular sources — and hoped to use him to influence the FT’s reporting.

Murphy’s response to Bill was blunt. “We don’t offer a journalistic ear to people threatening to sue us,” he recalls saying. “If Marsalek wants to set the record straight, tell him to answer Dan’s questions.” But he was rattled. How and why would an executive running a multibillion-euro global payments processing business in Germany find Bill, the long-term owner of a big London nightclub, who spent his daylight hours punting on the market?

Within days, Marsalek tried a different route into the FT. Bryce Elder, an equities specialist on the paper, returned from a Mayfair lunch and sat down next to Murphy in the newsroom. “A strange thing just happened to me,” he said. “I was offered money to quietly remove the Wirecard posts from Alphaville. Of course, I told him where to go but he said there’s a takeover bid coming for Wirecard.”

The three of us pulled up the Wirecard share-price chart and associated trading volume. “There’s no bid coming for that company,” Murphy said. Wirecard’s stock price had been hammered after the Zatarra Report, falling by a third. The publicity had sent investors of all sizes back to read the House of Wirecard series and review earlier episodes where speculators raised suspicions about the company.

The evident strategy of Wirecard was to portray our journalism as reckless and ill-informed — and on this front its machinations were about to get even more creative.

In April 2016, rumours started to circulate among London stock market traders that the FT was about to report that Wirecard was in takeover talks, and that the newspaper would issue a correction and an apology for its past coverage. Elder, who keeps his ear close to this rumour mill, was quickly told the terms of the supposed bid: Wirecard would merge with its French rival Ingenico. He also received a name and number to contact for verification of the deal: Jan Marsalek.

Marsalek, who was in Moscow at the time, answered his call and confirmed the takeover: Wirecard had supposedly reached heads of agreement with Ingenico in a transaction designed to create a European payment-processing powerhouse. The price would be €60 per share, 70 per cent above the prevailing market price — a bid premium that would stun investors.

But as Marsalek spoke, calls were simultaneously going into Ingenico executives from our Paris office. The French were adamant: there were no talks, there was no deal, the story was fictitious. Ingenico even produced an on-the-record statement.

At the FT we were dumbfounded. A senior executive at a large publicly listed European company had brazenly tried to spoof our journalists into running a completely fabricated, highly price-sensitive story. This was simply outside of our experience and, while it cemented our conviction that something was up, it was also deeply intimidating. What other tactics would the company try, I wondered.

In December I found out, when screenshots of emails between me and a corporate investigator were posted online for all to see. More worryingly, they appeared along with a collection of doctored chat-message transcripts, presented as evidence that I was synchronising the publication of Wirecard-related content with various hedge funds.

Wirecard’s associates, helped by an Indian hacker team, had invented their own “whistleblower” who published this cache of supposed evidence as a file called Zatarra Leaks. It included hacked correspondence between hedge funds, clandestine surveillance photos of investors at their homes — and my emails. This was accompanied by a rabid conspiracy about London-based traders and corrupt journalists ganging up on an innocent German technology company.

Panicked, I replaced all my personal electronics and spent days setting elaborate passwords on every device. On the advice of Sam Jones, who covered the security services for the FT, I attached a timer to my WiFi router to turn it off at night and reduce the opportunity for attack.

A day later a furious missive arrived from Schillings, Wirecard’s media lawyers at the time. Had the FT’s (then) editor Lionel Barber seen the evidence that showed the whole Zatarra affair to be a criminal conspiracy? And was Dan McCrum being investigated by the FT for corruption?

Those were uncomfortable days. I had to hand over my correspondence to show that these “revelations” were in fact messages taken out of context or simply fabricated. But from Wirecard’s perspective, the smearing worked. The combination of fierce legal attack and planting a grain of doubt about my innocence made reporting on the company laborious. There was also a dispiriting sense that whatever the story, investors and regulators preferred Wirecard’s Kool-Aid. The company’s share price doubled in 2017. Braun, his billionaire status increasingly likely, celebrated Christmas by taking out a €150m loan from Deutsche Bank, secured against the value of his 7 per cent Wirecard stake.

In early 2018, Murphy was lunching with one of his regular “bid-gossip” contacts at Signor Sassi, a splashy Italian restaurant near Harrods, when Wirecard came up in conversation. “You know they will pay you good money to stop writing about them,” the market contact stated. Murphy smiled, dismissing the idea. “No, I’m serious, they will pay you proper money,” he insisted. “They will pay you $10m. Go and talk to Bill. He’ll help you.”

Intrigued by this latest twist, Murphy went to see Bill, who was surprised by the sum but explained that “Marsalek desperately wants to meet you. He will fly over from Munich at a moment’s notice. Why don’t we fix up a lunch?” “Let’s do it,” Murphy replied.

Our immediate assumption was that this was a trap — a sting to demonstrate an FT journalist could be bribed. If there was going to be a lunch with Marsalek, we had to monitor it covertly.

The meal in question was arranged with surprising speed — for February 16 2018 — and, ultimately, took place at a steak restaurant at 45 Park Lane, where the prices naturally limit the number of people dining on any given day. Along with Marsalek came Bill and his son, plus a mysterious character called Sina Taleb, who couldn’t quite explain why he was there. Nearby, presenting themselves as three “ladies who lunch”, were Cynthia O’Murchu and Sarah O’Connor from the FT investigations team, as well as Camilla Hodgson, then a trainee FT reporter. They discreetly videoed proceedings with a high-tech handbag, while Murphy was covertly mic’d up.

It was for naught: Marsalek didn’t offer Murphy $10m. It may be that a last-minute venue switch exposed our amateur surveillance, or he wanted Murphy to make the incriminating “ask”. Marsalek did voice his belief, based on what he claimed was his direct experience, that journalists could be easily bought. And he repeatedly pressed his line that, knowingly or otherwise, I was working with short-sellers to damage Wirecard stock.

What Marsalek also admitted to, albeit indirectly, was running a spying operation against us. (“Maybe friends of mine did it,” he said.) And he explained, almost candidly, why this was needed: a misinformed or malicious FT story represented an “existential threat” to Wirecard, which, like any financial institution, had to retain the trust of those it did business with. “If we lose our correspondent banking relationships, the business would go down almost overnight,” he said.

Wirecard didn’t know at the time but its fate was sealed later that year. In October 2018, I flew to Singapore to meet whistleblowers, along with my colleague Stefania Palma from our bureau there. We were stunned as they described amateurish plots to forge invoices and cook up money flows, and listened with rising excitement as we learnt there was a full paper trail, a pile of Wirecard internal documents said to be concrete evidence of fraud.

Back in London, given our knowledge of Wirecard’s surveillance capabilities, it was decided I would spend the next three months in a small windowless office by the FT’s main newsroom, working on a so-called air-gapped computer, off-grid. I pored over the documents, avoiding meetings. We’d got into the habit of not invoking “the company” by name — much like Voldemort in Harry Potter — just to be on the safe side. The whole project was codenamed “Ahab”, after Peter Spiegel, then the FT’s news editor, took inspiration from Moby-Dick and started referring to Wirecard as my white whale.

Top of the whistleblowers’ cache of documents was a report carried out for the company by an Asian law firm, Rajah & Tann. Called “Project Tiger” and authorised by a mid-level Wirecard lawyer in Munich at the request of his colleagues in Singapore, it revealed stark allegations that the books were cooked.

Roll forward to January 30 2019 and we were ready. Since the Zatarra affair, Wirecard’s share price had grown sevenfold, propelling the company into Germany’s prestigious Dax 30 index. The business was now worth more than €20bn and chief executive Markus Braun projected with total confidence that revenue would grow fivefold, to €10bn, by 2025. But I already knew the numbers were fake.

Questions focused on Wirecard’s book-cooking operation in Singapore went to the company at 6am London time, giving it seven hours to respond. I waited nervously, conscious that Wirecard might run to the courts to try and stop us, claiming that a story about an internal investigation undertaken by lawyers would be a breach of confidence.

At 12.30, Murphy slipped out of the FT HQ for a quick crab sandwich and glass of wine at Sweetings, an archaic lunch spot just across the river. But suddenly he was back and visibly alarmed. “We’ve got a leak! We’ve got a bloody leak!” he said to me.

At Sweetings, he’d taken a call from a market trader, who said he’d heard there was a Wirecard article coming at 1pm and wondered what we were reporting. We sat and rolled through the names of those who knew we were planning to publish that day: the two of us, Nigel the lawyer, Lionel the editor. That was it. The copy wasn’t even in our content-management system yet. There was no leak from the FT.

The penny dropped: any leak must have come from Wirecard. Alerted by our questions, it had spread the news through the London market and once again was about to accuse us of collaborating with market speculators. The evidence was in the reference by Murphy’s caller to publishing at 1pm. We were never going to publish at that time; 1pm was simply the deadline given for comment.

Right on cue, a letter arrived from Schillings: “Our client has been informed of large and unusual short positions being taken out this morning against it, in anticipation of the publication of damaging information or allegations about it which would negatively impact its share price, as previous Financial Times articles have done . . . The repeated pattern of collusion with market players and, particularly, the timing of the short positions being taken out coinciding with Mr McCrum’s approaches, is particularly suspicious . . . ”

We published our story that day and Wirecard’s share price crashed. In a series of articles over the coming months, I described how senior members of the company’s finance team were forging documents and constructing fake money flows, known as round-tripping. Palma flew to the Philippines to visit the supposed addresses of Wirecard business partners there. One doubled up as a tour-bus company; another was the residential address of a retired seaman who had never heard of Wirecard.

But rather than following up on our revelations, large sections of the German business press simply took Wirecard’s version of events (any accounting irregularities are minor and have been dealt with, McCrum is a criminal working with short-sellers) and proceeded to attack the FT repeatedly.

Even more worryingly, BaFin, Germany’s financial regulator, took a similar approach, apparently believing what company executives told them. In February, Wirecard handed over to them an unsigned witness statement from a convicted criminal who, if he wrote it, misspelled his own address. With this “evidence” that traders had been aware an FT story was coming on January 30 — again supposedly at 1pm — the regulator intervened to suspend short selling in Wirecard stock for two months in order to protect it from speculators.

In April, BaFin filed a criminal complaint against Palma and me, plus a string of traders and hedge funds I’d never spoken to. I had the strange sensation of watching colleagues report and edit a piece about our impending prosecution. “Are you sure you didn’t let anything slip?” one editor asked, attempting to tread the line between collegiality and duty. “Have you been arrested yet?” became the standard greeting as I crossed the newsroom.

At least I’d found out when the news broke. Palma was stuck in a Jakarta traffic jam when she glanced at her phone to discover emails discussing whether it was appropriate to name us as suspects in an FT article. “The idea that the financial regulator of one of the biggest markets in Europe was investigating was pretty nerve-racking. I couldn’t quite believe we were the ones being targeted,” she recalls.

Wirecard told anyone who would listen that it was suing the FT, while its Philippines partners also threatened legal action, falsely alleging that Palma and I tried to bribe local officials. A story appeared in the Manila Standard claiming that somehow the retired seaman was paid to lie to Palma when she turned up at his house unannounced.

On one level all this was just bizarre. As Fahmi Quadir, a New York short-seller, put it in a wide-ranging critique of the ban, the authorities created “a toxic environment where whistleblowers will avoid coming forward for fear of civil or criminal penalty for telling the truth. BaFin’s actions may set a dangerous precedent for market cosseting and capitulation to corporate influence.”

Following news of the short selling ban, the criminal investigation and the high-profile backing of Japanese conglomerate SoftBank with a $1bn investment that April, Wirecard’s share price staged a robust recovery. The company had seen off its critics once again. I went back into my bunker and our trove of documents. As I did so, Wirecard executives were working to make sure that when I returned they would be ready.

I’ve never met Nick Gold but Murphy has described him as a compulsive stock market gambler in his late forties who will trade on the slightest rumour, as well as a party animal regularly sighted at A-list hangouts. He’s also part owner of The Box, a rather notorious “ladies and bottles” club in Soho.

It would emerge later in the year that an elaborate (but, ultimately, incompetent) network of intelligence and security operatives engaged by Wirecard in London had targeted Gold in 2019. He was identified as the vulnerable character among a group of friends who were big in property, gambled on the stock market continuously and, crucially, had bet against Wirecard shares at one time or other.

Overseeing the surveillance effort was a maverick Libyan, Rami El Obeidi. He was briefly the head of foreign intelligence in the transitional government installed after the country’s leader Colonel Gaddafi was killed in 2011. He liked to be addressed as “The Doctor” and always stayed at the Dorchester when in London, meeting there with officials from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority to press a case that I was crookedly conspiring with short-sellers to bring Wirecard down.

It was “Dr Rami” who brought in an ex-special forces guy from Manchester called Greg Raynor to work the Wirecard case. He, in turn, reached out to an ex-MI5 counter-terrorism operative, Hayley Elvins, and together they assembled a collection of 28 private investigators to follow me, my colleagues and a baffling array of investors and hedge fund bosses, including Crispin Odey.

It was pretty clear by now that the FT had become a huge moneymaking machine for these black operations pressing back against our reporting. Arcanum Global, owned by Ron Wahid and advised by a string of former senior military, policing and intelligence leaders, had a £3.2m contract with Wirecard. Elsewhere Charlie Palmer, partner in the public relations arm of FTI Consulting, failed to get the Mail on Sunday to reprint nonsense written by newspapers in the Philippines.

Meanwhile, international law firm Herbert Smith Freehills jousted with the FT’s lawyers, and a daisy chain of investigations by Fieldfisher lawyers and consultants at Control Risks — based on information carefully provided by Wirecard — was used to reassure the audit team at EY about issues raised by the FT. By the time Wirecard collapsed, it was spending £120m a year on “advice”.

Observers of the Wirecard affair have tended to criticise the German establishment for the fact that this fraud ran for 20 years unchecked — poor auditing, zero regulatory oversight. And yet almost all the external professionals hired by the company to protect its reputation were based in London.

The fact that I can now name Wahid, Elvins, Raynor, Dr Rami and Palmer as being part of a supposedly clandestine operation against the FT speaks to their incompetence. However, someone among that group got something right when they focused on Nick Gold.

Bemused by Wirecard’s ability to shrug off the very serious allegations we raised during the first half of 2019, I went back to look for fresh evidence. Something was nagging at me. We’d reported that Wirecard outsourced huge amounts of payments processing to business partners and named a payments client mentioned in the files — LiveJasmin, an adult-entertainment empire built on live webcams.

LiveJasmin ignored our inquiries before we published but afterwards complained it had never heard of these partners. “We are linked directly to Wirecard because they are one of our acquirer banks. There is no other party involved in this and we do not have nor need any other party to process transactions,” a spokesperson said.

I went back to an Excel file headed “Customer Relationship Monitoring”, dated April 6 2018, with about 40 sheets of customer data. Clicking on the one labelled “Alam” — a Wirecard partner in Dubai — I ran my eyes down the list of customers. Some of the names looked odd. I knew from past research that some of the entities there could not have been doing business with Wirecard at the time because they no longer existed. And then it hit me: the whole list; the names, the revenue, the sales . . . it was all fake.

Several dozen phone calls later, we were in a position to send questions to Wirecard seeking comment. The stakes were high. It was mid-July and we were about to allege, in print, that a large part of the Wirecard business was fabricated.

A reply finally arrived, rejecting everything outright and asserting that I’d used a forged document to make these claims. But there was a sting in the tail. To quote from a Herbert Smith letter: “We are instructed to inform you that our client has recently obtained evidence in the form of an audio recording, which has been provided to the criminal authorities in the UK and Germany, showing that the publication foreshadowed by Mr McCrum’s email is intended to form part of a short selling strategy and that its forthcoming publication has already been communicated to short sellers.”
Here’s what happened. Nick Gold, the compulsive punter, was vacationing at his villa in Cannes when he bumped into an old friend, a football agent. This friend told Gold he knew of an investor who wanted to put £50m to work in the London stock market. Did Gold want an introduction?

A meeting was set up between a representative of the investor and Gold on July 17 2019, along with Gold’s business partner Jonathan Dennis. The pair were told the investor wanted a trade or strategy to execute immediately. But the representative was actually a private investigator. He recorded everything as Gold claimed advance knowledge of when the FT was publishing articles critical of Wirecard and that a new story, casting doubt on the existence of Wirecard revenues, was due that week.

Gold would later state he guessed that something was coming from a conversation with Murphy on an entirely different topic. He’d tried to interest Murphy in further information about Flutter, the betting group that was also an FT focus at the time — and Murphy had replied: “I can’t look at Flutter, I’m too busy with Wirecard right now.”

From my perspective, this was disastrous. The German press was running lurid stories about seemingly corrupt reporters, then the FT’s editor Lionel Barber decided to call in an external law firm, RPC, to investigate Murphy and me. This investigation would ultimately conclude there was no collusion with Gold or anyone else — but it took two months, during which nothing further could be run on Wirecard, which used the time to raise €1.4bn of new debt from investors.

Yet in hindsight the Gold affair was a blessing in disguise. Wirecard staked its reputation on a transparent lie and hardened our resolve to expose it. Through Herbert Smith, the company claimed the “Alam” spreadsheet itself was fabricated — but we were sure it was genuine. I had correspondence between members of the Wirecard finance team discussing the document.

By early October, Barber cleared a plan for one of the boldest pieces of journalism in the FT’s history. We would publish the Alam piece first drafted in July showing that half of Wirecard’s claimed business simply didn’t exist, and we would also publish the actual spreadsheet, providing everyone with very tangible evidence that Braun was lying, repeatedly. The choice would be clear: if the document with its fraudulent data was real, Wirecard’s profits were fake.

The piece went live on October 14 2019, sealing Braun’s fate together with that of his co-conspirators. It only took another eight months of dithering by the German authorities, amid a special audit from KPMG, to actually bring the business down.

In the end, the fraud was farcical in its simplicity. Due to announce results on June 18 this year, Wirecard instead said that €1.9bn was “missing”. Two pieces of paper, supposedly listing large sums held at banks in the Philippines, were forgeries. The tragedy was that it took so long for EY to check.

A whirlwind week followed. Braun was fired and arrested. Wirecard admitted that the billions weren’t missing, they were imaginary, then collapsed into insolvency. The ex-billionaire was soon joined in jail by other senior executives, although not Marsalek, who vanished as his lies unravelled and is still on the run. A reckoning began in Germany, where Commerzbank was among the institutions that had lent Wirecard €3.2bn.

For me, and for many of the long-term investigators of the group, it felt like a huge weight had lifted. My great white whale was gone at last.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 3rd of September 20

>>> Up
* Deutsche Post PT Raised to 48 euros at Bankhaus Metzler
* FedEx Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $280
* Integrated Diagnostics Raised to Buy at Arqaam Capital
* Publicis Raised to Buy at Oddo BHF; PT 38 euros
* Stora Enso Raised to Buy at BofA; PT 15 euros

>>> Down
* A.G. Barr PT Cut to 310 pence from 380 pence at Barclays
* British Land Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Land Sec. Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Merlin Properties Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Next Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 3,650 pence
* UPS Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT $130
* Wood Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT 270 pence

>>> Initiation
* Covivio Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* doValue SpA Rated New Outperform at Intermonte; PT 11.90 euros
* Intertrust Rated New Buy at KBC Securities; PT 20 euros

>>> Call
* Citi Upgrades Non-Financial Value Stocks on Falling Real Rates
* Deutsche Post, FedEx Top Parcel Delivery Picks at Berenberg
* Elekta Navigates Crisis, PT and Estimates Raised at Berenberg
* Next ‘Very Overvalued,’ Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
* Subsea 7’s Offshore Wind Exposure Undervalued, Citi Raises PT

>>> What to look a today - 3rd of September 2020

Asian stocks were mostly higher after their U.S. peers set fresh all-time highs, as investors assesed signs the record-breaking rally may be broadening into other sectors and away from technology. The dollar edged higher.
South Korean shares outperformed, along with those in Japan and Australia. Stocks in Hong Kong and China fluctuated. European futures climbed almost 1%. S&P 500 contracts dipped after the index climbed 1.5% to hit another record with utilities and materials stocks leading the charge and technology shares lagging. The euro extended this week’s declines amid further signals the European Central Bank is concerned with the strength of the currency. Oil steadied and gold slipped.
US After Hours MDB +9.9%, FIVE +6.6%, GWRE +3.8% up on earnings; PD -22.6%, ZUO -19.6%, SAIC -6.4%, RKT -6.2%, CRWD -6% lower on earnings

Nikkei +1.09% Hang Seng -0.54% CSI -0.16% Shanghai -0.24% Shenzen -0.29%

Eur$ 1.18 CNH 6.8426 CNY 6.8407 JPY 106.31 GBP 1.3295 CHF 0.9131 RUB 75.3435 WTI$ 41.43 -0.19%

S&P -0.25% Nasdaq -0.31% EuroStoxx +0.66% FTSE +0.36% Dax +0.57% SMI +0.10%

Macro :
- Robinhood Faces SEC Probe Related to Deals With High-Speed Traders -- Sources
- Fed’s Mester Says Downside Risks and Uncertainty Cloud Outlook
- U.S. Investor Bull-Bear Spread -11: AAII
- Art Basel in Miami Beach Canceled on Coronavirus (Sept. 2)
- FTSE MIB Index Review Results In No New Inclusions Or Exclusions
- FTSE Says B&M European Value Retail to Join FTSE 100 Index

Keep an eye on :
- ATC US : Altice USA’s Cogeco Offer Is ‘Fair as a First Bid’: Desjardins
- BCART BB : Biocartis First Half Idylla Installed Base 1,411
- EN FP : French 5G Bandwidth Auction to Start Sept. 29, Les Echos Reports
- CAP FP : Capgemini Sees FY Revenue In Constant Currency +12.5% to +14%
- CENER BB : Cenergy Holdings Wins Pipes Contract for Shell Colibri Project
- CMCX LN : CMC Markets Sees Earnings to Exceed Market Consensus
- CSGN SW : Credit Suisse Still Assessing Exact Scope of Brexit Banker Moves
- DOKA SW : dormakaba FY Ebitda Misses Lowest Est.; to Cut Up to 1,300 Jobs
- EDP PL : EDP Renovaveis Sells 80% Stake in U.S. Wind, Solar Portfolio
- HIK LN : Amarin Plummets After Patent Appeal Shows Key Drug Sales at Risk
- ILD FP : Iliad 1H Profit, Revenue Rose Despite Pandemic Hit
- ILD FP : French 5G Bandwidth Auction to Start Sept. 29, Les Echos Reports
- KTCG AV : Kapsch TrafficCom Expected to Eliminate 400 Jobs: Der Standard
- TL5 SM : Mediaset Espana Second Quarter Net Income EU21.1 Mln, -72% Y/y
- NEXT NO : Next Bio Says Turnaround Progressing Well; Won’t Give Guidance
- ORA FP : French 5G Bandwidth Auction to Start Sept. 29, Les Echos Reports
- RDSA LN : Shell Is More Bullish on LNG in the Near Term, RBC Capital Says
- RYA ID : Ryanair Could Close Some Italian Bases, CEO Tells Sole
- SIE GY : Siemens Healthineers Offering Prices 75m Shares at EU36.40/Share
- SIE GY : Siemens Healthineers Raises $3.2 Billion to Help Fund Varian Buy
- SSE LN : Ofgem Fines SSE GBP2.06m for Market Information Breaches
- TECH FP : Technicolor: Conditions for EU420m of New Financing Satisfied
- VAHN SW : Vaudoise First Half Net Income CHF60.9 Mln, -19% Y/y
- YAR NO : Yara Invests EU28 Mln in Uusikaupunki Facility in Finland

>>> US Close Dow +1.59% S&P +1.54% Nasdaq +0.98% Russell +0.87%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The S&P 500 rose 1.5% on Wednesday for its 22nd record close of the year, as the bull market found strong support from a wide range of equities. The Nasdaq Composite also set new records with a 1.0% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6%, and the Russell 2000 rose 0.9%. 

Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in positive territory, with gains ranging from 0.9% (information technology) to 3.1% (utilities). Only the energy sector (-0.4%) closed lower, largely due to the decline in oil prices ($41.54/bbl, -1.22, -2.9%).

Today was an impressive day not just because of the index gains, but because sentiment wasn't deterred by the profit taking in Apple (AAPL 131.40, -2.78, -2.1%), Tesla (TSLA 447.37, -27.68, -5.8%), and Zoom Video (ZM 423.56, -34.13, -7.5%).

There were no new macro catalysts to explain today's record-setting performance, so one could reasonably assume that a fear of missing out, momentum trading, coronavirus optimism, or the Fed might have continued to play key roles. On a related note, the Fed's Beige Book observed an improvement in activity for most Districts into August.

Street-high analyst calls were other positive factors. BoA Securities raised its price target on NVIDIA (NVDA 573.86, +21.02, +3.8%) to $650 from $600, Cowen raised its price target on Costco (COST 358.86, +7.48, +2.1%) to $410 from $370, and JP Morgan raised its price target on Peloton (PTON 91.06, +7.39, +8.8%) to $105 from $58.

Interestingly, optimism in the growth outlook might not have played a role in today's gains. For instance, the U.S. Treasury curve experienced some curve-flattening activity due to an uptick in longer-dated Treasuries. The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 0.13%, while the 10-yr yield declined two basis points to 0.65%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.4% to 92.67.

Some might have blamed the relatively underwhelming ADP Employment Change report, which estimated 428,000 jobs were added private-sector payrolls in August, versus the Briefing.com consensus of 1.210 million.

Reviewing Wednesday's economic data:

  • Factory orders in July increased 6.4% m/m (consensus 5.7%) following an upwardly revised 6.4% increase (from 6.2%) in June. This is the third straight monthly increase in factory orders following a 13.5% decline in April and an 11.0% decline in March.
    • The key takeaway from the report is the affirmation that business spending picked up in July, evidenced by a 1.9% increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft that was unchanged from the Advance Durable Goods Orders report.
  • The ADP Employment Change Report for August showed a slowdown from the pace of rehiring activity seen in May and June. To that end, it was estimated that 428,000 jobs were added to private-sector payrolls.
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index declined 2.0% following a 6.5% decline in the prior week. 

Looking ahead, investors will receive the weekly Initial and Continuing Claims report, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for August, the Trade Balance report for July, and the revised Q2 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs on Thursday.

  • Nasdaq Composite +34.4% YTD
  • S&P 500 +10.8% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -4.6% YTD

>>> US After Hours Summary: MDB +9.9%, FIVE +6.6%, GWRE +3.8% up o

After Hours Summary: MDB +9.9%, FIVE +6.6%, GWRE +3.8% up on earnings; PD -22.6%, ZUO -19.6%, SAIC -6.4%, RKT -6.2%, CRWD -6% lower on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: MDB +9.9%, FIVE +6.6%, GWRE +3.8%, PVH +3.3%, CPRT +2.1%, SPWH +1.4%, POR +0.8%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: AGTC +11.7% (to provide update on trial and data on Sep 9), STRO +10.9% (to discuss update on "promising" STRO-002 interim data), FLGT +9.3% (partners with NYC for back-to-school COVID-19 testing), NVAX +3.9% (announces publication of Phase 1 data for COVID-19 vaccine in NEJM), OSTK +1.2% (introduces zero trading fees), ALB +1.2% (selected by US Dept of Energy as partner for lithium research projects), SONO +1.2% (gets extension on exclusion of the co's core speaker products from tariffs through end of 2020), COST +0.9% (reports Q4 sales slightly better than consensus; Aug comps +14.5%), INCY +0.4% (announces publication of pivotal study results), COTY +0.3% (new CEO), UPS +0.3% (new collaboration with EBAY for expanded shipping options), NVS +0.3% (INCY announces publication of pivotal study results, NVS has rights to the drug), CRY +0.1% (acquires Ascyrus Medical), BE +0.1% (co and SK E&C announce 28-MW deployment of fuel cell technologies)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: PD -22.6%, ZUO -19.6%, SAIC -6.4%, RKT -6.2%, CRWD -6%, SMAR -5.4%, CLDR -2.9%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: AMC -4.7% (files for 30 mln share offering), TSLA -1.5% (Tesla competitor Lucid Motors shows good speed, according to TheVerge), LB -0.8% (S&P outlook revised to stable)

Ft : US corporate bond issuance hits $1.919tn in 2020, beating full-year record

US corporate bond issuance hits $1.919tn in 2020, beating full-year record
Companies have rushed to raise cash in a debt market boosted by the Fed

Companies have raised more debt in the US bond market this year than ever before, as a dash for cash during the coronavirus crisis took issuance past previous full-year totals with months left to go. 

A $2bn bond from Japanese bank Mizuho and a $2.5bn deal from junk-rated hospital operator Tenet Healthcare helped nudge overall US corporate bond issuance to $1.919tn so far this year, surpassing the previous annual record of $1.916tn set in 2017, according to data from Refinitiv. 

The surge marks a dramatic revival for the market since the coronavirus-induced rout in March, when prices slumped and yields soared, increasing businesses’ cost of borrowing to prohibitive levels and temporarily shutting down new issuance. 

“There has been a phenomenal amount of issuance,” said Peter Tchir, chief macro strategist at Academy Securities in New York. “It’s been the busiest summer I have ever seen. It’s felt like we have been setting issuance records month after month.”

The Federal Reserve’s historic interventions, including a pledge late in March to buy corporate bonds for the first time, sparked a swift recovery, pulling down borrowing costs and reopening the market. 

After an initial rush by top-rated companies to secure emergency funds, the bond binge has extended to lower-quality companies, as well as opportunistic deals from those looking to lock in cheaper funding. Investment-grade bond yields have reached record lows, dropping below 2 per cent for the first time ever in July.

However, the deluge of fundraising has raised concerns that companies are racking up debt even as earnings remain depressed. 


Many companies hardest hit by the pandemic have been pushed to secure bond deals against their assets. Airlines have pledged aircraft and flying routes, and cruise operators have offered ships and even an island in the Bahamas.

The wave of debt has been greeted by investment bankers, who saw their fees reach new records for the first half of the year, boosted by bumper bond deals for the likes of AT&T, Walt Disney and Ford.

Bankers remain hopeful for more to come, with an uptick in issuance expected in coming weeks as companies look to do deals before the US presidential election in November, which could cause greater volatility in the market.

Meghan Graper, head of the US investment grade syndicate at Barclays, said a “healthy backlog” of deals should land after the US Labor Day public holiday on September 7. “The majority of borrowers we are speaking to are looking to take advantage of the current dynamic and get in ahead of the election,” she said.