>>> US Close : Dow-0,82% S&P-0,89% Nasdaq-0,80%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Begin 2014 on Lower Note

After gaining nearly 30.0% in 2013, the S&P 500 exhibited a bit of a hangover in its first session of 2014. The benchmark index fell 0.9% as all ten sectors registered losses. Stocks were pressured from the opening bell as cautious action in Europe weighed on the early sentiment. In all likelihood, the slide caught a number of participants off guard given the understanding that the first few days of a new year are known to have a favorable bias with inflows into IRA accounts,bonus money being put to work, and new money coming off the sidelines. That did not happen today as sellers maintained control throughout the trading day.

Three cyclical sectors—energy (-1.3%), industrials (-1.3%), and technology (-1.1%)—slipped behind the broader market at the open and their underperformance weighed for the remainder of the session.

The energy sector followed in the lead of crude oil as the energy component tumbled 3.0% to $95.49/bbl. Meanwhile, industrials were pressured by defense contractors and transports. The PHLX Defense Index lost 1.3% while The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.5%. Elsewhere, the technology sector struggled to gain traction as its largest component, Apple (AAPL 553.13, -7.89), weighed after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to ‘Market Perform' from ‘Outperform.' Chipmakers also lagged, sending the PHLX Semiconductor Index lower by 1.4%. Even though three large sectors pressured the broader market throughout the day, there was some relative strength in other heavily-weighted groups. On that note, consumer discretionary (-0.5%), financials (-0.6%), and health care (-0.6%) outperformed. Notably, the financial sector owed some its outperformance to Bank of America (BAC 16.10, +0.53), which gained 3.4% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to ‘Buy' from ‘Neutral.' JPMorgan Chase (JPM 58.21, +0.11) also bucked the downtrend, climbing 0.2%. Treasuries rallied throughout the day as the benchmark 10-yr yield slid from 3.04% to 2.99%. Trading volume was on the light side as just over 610 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Today's economic data was limited to three reports, but neither had much of a trading impact: o Weekly initial claims dipped to 339,000 from an upwardly revised 341,000 (from 338,000) while the consensus estimate was pegged at 333,000. Notably, there was no indication from the Department of Labor that seasonal adjustments continued creating difficulties.

o Construction spending in November rose 1.0% while the consensus expected an increase of 0.8%. The November gain followed an upwardly revised 0.9% increase (from 0.8%) in October. Total private construction, paced by a 1.9% increase in residential spending, was up 2.2% and led the overall advance. Nonresidential private spending jumped 2.7%, paced by gains in the commercial (+4.7%), office (+4.6%), power (+3.3%), and manufacturing (+1.2%) spaces. o The December ISM Index checked in at 57.0, which was pretty much in-line with the consensus estimate of 56.9. The December reading was the second highest reading for the year, trailing only the 57.3 reading seen in November. o There is no economic data on tomorrow's schedule.

(Globe & Mail) David Rosenberg on 2014: Why it's going to feel like 10 years ago


Rosenberg sees better times
Economist David Rosenberg expects a better 2014 than the “write-off for the economy” that was last year, though that doesn’t necessarily translate to the markets.

The chief economist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates believes 2014 will be a "surprise year" for the U.S. economy, similar to 1984, 1994 and 2004.

“In a nutshell, I feel like 2014 is going to feel a lot like 2004 and 1994 when the economy surprised to the high side after a prolonged period of unsatisfactory post-recession growth, as reparation of highly leveraged balance sheets delayed, but in the end did not derail, a vigorous expansion,” he said of the U.S. economy.

“That by no means guarantees a stellar year for the markets because as we saw in 2013 with a softer year for the economy and as for the markets, multiple expansion premised on Fed-induced liquidity can act as a very powerful antidote,” the chief economist at Mr. Rosenberg said in a recent 2014 forecast.

Mr. Rosenberg’s main point for this year is that the economy is “not at all suffering from secular stagnation,” but rather has gone through “a balance sheet adjustment process of epic proportions.”

He cited the periods after the dot-com bust and the recession of the early 1990s, and how things improved.

“The consensus view heading into 2004 was that the economy was never going to recover – what a surprise it then was to see the opposite and the Fed embarking on a tightening program in June of that year,” he said, referring to the tech meltdown that preceded it.

“Go back further to the banking sector financial repair that held back the recovery in 1992-93,” he added.

“Again, terms like ‘structural headwinds,’ ‘jobless recovery’ and ‘credit crunch’ abounded. Then look at what happened in 1994.”

(Makor) Technical Research - Euro Stoxx 50 Index - 2Jan13

Technical Research - Euro Stoxx Index (3,091)

Quick Overview: The Index did make a new cycle high this morning but since then has moved into negative territory. Assuming we close below 3,107 we will get a false break above a cycle high which is a negative development in our view. Even though the day isn't over yet we feel that the risk/reward is attractive. Short Term Strategy: Short from market price, target 2,990 and place a stop on a daily close above 3,135. Good Luck! Support: 3,075, 3,034, 2,990 & 2,919 Resistances: 3,107-3,127 [cid:image001.jpg@01CF07D1.6B8FA8D0]

Summary of Trading Positions - European Indices: Position

Entry Date

Index

Entry Level

Target

S/L Level

Exit Date

Exit Level

P/L

Seller

5/12/2013

SX5E Index

2991

2872

2940

17/12/2013

2,969

0.74%

Seller

10/12/2013

DAX Index

9151

8770

9226

19/12/2013

9,335

-2.01%

Seller

18/12/2013

SX5E Index

2972

2872

3015

19/12/2013

3,031

-1.99%

Seller

2/1/2013

CAC Index

4263

4143

4313

0.13%

Seller

2/1/2014

SX5E Index

3091

2990

3135

0.00%

Total Average Return

-0.61%

Summary of Trading Positions - European Equities: Position

Entry Date

Index

Entry Level

Target

S/L Level

Exit Date

Exit Level

P/L

Buyer

27/11/2013

BCP PL Equity

0.12

0.18

0.11

27/12/2013

0.18

50.00%

Seller

17/12/2013

VIV FP Equity

18.63

16.40

19.36

-1.13%

Buyer

18/12/2013

EOAN GY Equity

13.00

14.14

12.80

1.73%

Seller

18/12/2013

GLE FP Equity

39.78

36.20

41.13

24/12/2013

41.5

-4.32%

Buyer

18/12/2013

HEN3 GY Equity

80.76

83.92

80.50

27/12/2013

83.92

3.91%

Buyer

17/12/2013

BARC LN Equity

254

269

247

27/12/2013

269

5.91%

Total Average Return

9.35%

Summary of Trading Positions - US Indices: Position

Entry Date

Index

Entry Level

Target

S/L Level

Exit Date

Exit Level

P/L

Seller

5/12/2013

SPX Index

1793

1746

1814

18/12/2013

1,810

-0.95%

Total Average Return

-0.95%

>>> US Gapping down


Gapping down

Select Brazil related names showing weakness, attributed to weaker real as central bank pulls back on stimulus: GFA -8.6%, OIBR -4.4%, SBS -4.1%, VIV -4%, BBD -3.6%, PBR -2.8%, EWZ -2.7%, ERJ -2.6%, VALE -2.4%.

Select EU Banks stocks trading lower: DB -2.7%, SAN -2.5%, UBS -1.3%, LYG -1.3%, HSBC -0.9%.

Other news: GYRO -8.7% (trading ex-dividend as of Dec 31), DRYS -7.4% (intends to resume sales under its previously announced $200 million program of at the market issuances of its common shares), TKC -5.7% (may face TRY527.7 mln tax fine, according to reports), UNXL -5.1% (COO resigned effective December 31, 2013), CBMX -1.3% (files to sell 81,910 shares by the selling stockholders in S-3 filing), NOK -0.7% (HTC plans to appeal NOK patent ruling, according to reports).

Analyst comments: ADI -2.8% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman and downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), AMRS -2.5% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Cowen), NXPI -2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), ONNN -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), ANF -1.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), ARO -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), AAPL -1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), ALTR -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman).

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up

M&A news: WPCS +20.6% (announces several new developments; looks to find a buyer for the 60% interest in its China-based joint venture), CEDU +2.3% (enters into definitive merger agreement for going private transaction for $7 per ADS), YGE +2.2% (entered an agreement to establish a joint venture with Shuozhou Coal Power), .

Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SLV +3%, AU +2.9%, HMY +2%, GG +1.9%, GDX +1.8%, NEM +1.6%, GFI +1.6%, SLW +1.5%, KGC +1.4%, GLD +1.3%, ABX +1%.

Other news: PLUG +22.6% (announces it has met order targets set for the fourth quarter of 2013), HSOL +4.3% (to supply 11.5 MW to Ikaros Solar), ARIA +3.4% (seeing continued strength;confirmed will present at J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Jan 14), ORMP +2.9% (Sabby Management discloses 8.29% passive stake in 13G filing), EMITF +2.5% (announces court's approval of arrangement), USG +1.5% (Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) discloses 30.5% active stake in amended 13D filing).

Analyst comments: URBN +4.8% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), MCP +4.4% (target raised to $8 at DA Davidson), AEO +2.8% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), XLNX +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), X +0.8% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc Capital Mkts), BAC +0.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)

>>> iShares Brazil ETF trading lower by 2.7%...Weaker Real....

iShares Brazil ETF trading lower by 2.7% -- may be attributed to weaker real as central bank pulls back on stimulus

Original Message From: LAURENT CHEKROUN () At: 1/02 13:56:44
Brazil Real Falls to Four-Month Low as Intervention Scaled Back
Brazil’s real dropped to a level weaker than 2.4 per dollar for the first time in four months as the central bank began scaled-back support for the currency.
The real depreciated 1.9 percent to 2.4074 per U.S. dollar at 10:11 a.m. in Sao Paulo, the biggest decline among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Swap rates maturing in January 2016 rose nine basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 11.71 percent.
Brazil sold $199 million of currency swaps today under a program announced Dec. 18 to auction $200 million each trading day until at least June 30. The central bank offered $500 million four days a week in 2013.
“The central bank’s intervention is now lighter and should have less of an impact on the market,” Marcelo Schmitt, fixed-income director at Sulamerica Investimentos in Sao Paulo, said in a phone interview.

>>> Brazil Real Falls to Four-Month Low as Intervention Scaled Back

Brazil Real Falls to Four-Month Low as Intervention Scaled Back
Brazil’s real dropped to a level weaker than 2.4 per dollar for the first time in four months as the central bank began scaled-back support for the currency.
The real depreciated 1.9 percent to 2.4074 per U.S. dollar at 10:11 a.m. in Sao Paulo, the biggest decline among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Swap rates maturing in January 2016 rose nine basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 11.71 percent.
Brazil sold $199 million of currency swaps today under a program announced Dec. 18 to auction $200 million each trading day until at least June 30. The central bank offered $500 million four days a week in 2013.
“The central bank’s intervention is now lighter and should have less of an impact on the market,” Marcelo Schmitt, fixed-income director at Sulamerica Investimentos in Sao Paulo, said in a phone interview.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: WPCS +8.8%, HSOL +7.2%, MCP +3.4%, ORMP +2.7%, NEM +2.7%, KGC +2.7%, SLV +2.6%, EMITF +2.5%, CEDU +2.3%, AEO +2.1%, YGE +2%, HMY +2%, HMY +2%, SLW +1.9%, GDX +1.8%, AU +1.7%, GFI +1.6%, GG +1.3%, ABX +1.2%, GLD +1.1%

Gapping down: GYRO -7.9%, TKC -6.4%, DRYS -6%, DRYS -6%, SGEN -3.8%, BBD -3.8%, OIBR -3.8%, SAN -2.8%, DB -2.5%, LYG -1.5%, CBMX -1.3%, UBS -1.3%, HSBC -1.1%, NOK -1%