(EU) Monday Morning Papers Summary
LA REPUBBLICA
-Bucha's horror raises the level of European sanctions on Russia. The images have raised the EU’s disdain and could prompt, for the first time, a discussion about terminating natural gas imports from Russia altogether. The fifth package of sanctions is "on the way", announced the President of the European Council Charles Michel. The discussion was already underway and a round of consultations, including on the dispatch of other weapons and aid, will resume today. The EU is considering enforcing more restrictions on Russian banks, a ban on the entry of Russian ships in western ports and a ban of the supply of materials and technological equipment. But Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht from Berlin says it's time to start talking seriously about energy sanctions, including a stop to methane. The Italian government is more prudent, but if the EU examines the stop to supplies, assures Minister Luigi Di Maio, "it will not turn the other way".
FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG
-How did Turkey become a leading manufacturer of modern weapons technology? Out of necessity. President Erdogan proclaimed a "digital mobilization phase" - the Turkish armaments industry is already in the thick of it. In fact, Turkey, although an emerging country according to the classic definition, has an advanced digital technology and software sector, even if it invests only half the EU average in research and development with 1% of economic output. Nevertheless; the state-sponsored electric car Togg will be a rolling computer, the delivery service Getir, which is also active in Germany, would be inconceivable without smart algorithms, shopping platforms such as Hepsiburada and Tendyrol are valued billions of dollars and the state-owned Türk Telekom is launching a 5G system with Chinese help.
-Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, won yet another election: it was a victory so huge that you could even “see it from the moon and certainly from Brussels”. The Hungarian Prime Minister immediately used the clear electoral success he achieved on Sunday with his national-conservative party Fidesz to declare ‘war’ on the European institutions, against which he is very fond of campaigning. Fidesz, along with its close-knit Christian Democratic coalition partner KDNP, received more than 53% of the vote. Orbán could once again command a two-thirds majority in parliament thanks to the electoral law, which strongly promotes a majority.
HANDELSBLATT
-Europe must prepare for difficult economic times. The former head of the Bundesbank and outgoing president of the major Swiss bank UBS is concerned about the rapidly rising inflation: "What worries me the most economically at the moment is the very high inflation rate." In the USA, inflation could soon reach double-digit values. He still expects eight percent for the euro zone. In view of such inflation rates, he sees omissions on the part of the central banks: "It is incomprehensible that the European Central Bank, unlike the US Federal Reserve, is taking so much time with the monetary policy change," says Weber. "In my view, a more rapid tightening of monetary policy would be desirable."
-The war in the Ukraine ensures that the western states are pushing ahead with the transition of the energy supply to renewable energies. For private and professional investors, the focus is on an innovative investment concept, which investors can adopt to take advantage from the energy transition and other infrastructure projects: the European Long Term Investment Fund (ELTIF).
IL SOLE 24 ORE
-Saudi Arabia has opened to the possibility of allowing China to pay for oil in Yuan. Beijing and Moscow, even before the invasion of Ukraine, agree to honor the gas that will arrive from a new pipeline in euros. The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, also goes to China and India to agree on the means of payment (and currencies) for trade. This is just one of the pieces of the much larger geopolitical battle that the world is witnessing now.
-After 18 months of continuous price increases, the next electricity and gas bills will show a 10.2% cut for electricity and a 10% drop for gas. The decreases were announced by the Energy, Networks and the Environment Authority (ARERA), which indicated the new values ??in the latest quarterly update. "In an objectively extraordinary situation, with an ongoing conflict and unprecedented volatility on the energy markets – said ARERA president Stefano Besseghini – and….the Authority has decided to adopt extraordinary measures to support consumers".
-Germany cannot do without Russian gas, which is worth 55% of the country's gas needs, which drives the economy, supports employment, and feeds the giants of the manufacturing industry and families. This dependence will gradually be reduced until it is zeroed but will last, according to the latest predictions of the Minister of Economy Robert Habeck, at least until the end of 2023, indeed not, until the middle of 2024.
LES ECHOS
-Used-car sellers in France saw a spike in requests for alternatives to gasoline and diesel in March. In new construction, the number of 100% electric cars has almost doubled in one year, and Dacia is benefiting from the enthusiasm for LPG. 100% electric, hybrid, LPG or even super ethanol: in recent months, the increase in prices at the pump has prompted motorists to look more and more to engines that can reduce their fuel budget. The burst of inflation that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine has precipitated this runaway situation.
-Talks between Russia and Ukraine resume on Monday as both sides reported progress in talks over the weekend. As Ukrainians claim to have uncovered new evidence of war crimes, Moscow has called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators will resume talks, today, to try to find an agreement to end the conflict. On Saturday the Ukrainian side affirmed that Moscow had orally accepted all its positions “except with regard to the question of Crimea”. For its part, the Russians confirmed that Kiev has adopted a "more realistic" position to accept a neutral status for the country.
ABC
It took only three days after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine for the latter’s President Volodymyr Zelensky to make the following international appeal: "All those who want to join the defense of security in Europe and the world can come and be side by side with the Ukrainians against the invaders of the 21st century.” The Ukrainian Foreign Minister announced a few days ago that more than 20,000 fighters from 52 different nationalities had enrolled in what Zelensky called the International Legion for Territorial Defense of Ukraine. But according to several sources consulted by this newspaper, these figures must be taken with a grain of salt. “They are part of the propaganda inherent in any war.”
>>> Up
* Bayer Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 85 euros
* Danske Bank Raised to Market Perform at KBW; PT 130 kroner
* Just Group Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 125 pence
* Kingfisher Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 335 pence
* Logitech Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 107 Swiss francs
* Swedbank Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 170 kronor
>>> Down
* Swedbank Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 170 kronor
>>> Down
* Aviva Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 480 pence
* CareTech Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 725 pence
* CareTech Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 725 pence
* DNB Bank Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT 200 kroner
* Electrolux Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken
* Essity Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken
* Grand City Properties Cut to Underweight at Barclays
* H&M Cut to Neutral at Bryan Garnier; PT 190 kronor (+)
* PNE AG Cut to Hold at M.M. Warburg; PT 10.60 euros (+)
* Snam Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 4.50 euros
* Team17 Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 600 pence (+)
* Terna Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 8 euros
* Wartsila Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken
* Xpediator Cut to Hold at Panmure Gordon; PT 75 pence (+)
>>> Initiation
>>> Initiation
* ADP Reinstated Underweight at Barclays; PT 98 euros
* Aena Reinstated Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 145 euros
* Aena Reinstated Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 145 euros
* Air France-KLM Reinstated Equal-Weight at Barclays
* Embracer Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT 85 kronor
* *HEXAGON RATED NEW BUY AT BERENBERG, PT SEK155
* IAG Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT 210 pence
* EasyJet Reinstated Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 705 pence
* Enav Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT 4.90 euros
* Fraport Reinstated Underweight at Barclays; PT 54 euros
* Lufthansa Reinstated Underweight at Barclays; PT 5.20 euros
* Noratis Rated New Buy at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 30.20 euros (+)
* Ryanair Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT 17.60 euros
* Siemens Gamesa Reinstated Hold at Jefferies; PT 17.30 euros
* Stelrad Group Rated New Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 250 pence
* Zurich Airport Reinstated Overweight at Barclays
>>> Call
>>> Call
* Equities Risk-Reward Doesn’t Look Bearish, JPM Strategists Say
* RBC Says ‘Starts Are Bright’ for AB InBev’s Margins, Lifts PT (+)
* Bayer Upgraded on Asundexian, Strong Crop Science: Barclays
* Barclays Raises Just Group, Cuts Aviva on Bulk Annuities Outlook (+)
* H&M Cut to Neutral at Bryan Garnier Amid Russia Setback (+)
* Hexagon Gets New Buy at Berenberg on Top-Line Growth Potential
* Logitech Up to Buy at Goldman on Cheap Valuation, Strong Trends (+)
* Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says ‘Bear Market Rally’ in Stocks Over
* Nordex Guidance Even More Uncertain Post Cyberattack, Citi Says (+)
* Snam, Terna Cut at Citi Following Relative Stock Outperformance
* Swedbank Upgraded at Citi, Preferred to SEB on Gearing to Rates (+)
* Ocado Price Target Cut at Kepler Amid Uncertain Macro Outlook
* Ocado Price Target Cut at Kepler Amid Uncertain Macro Outlook
Hypebeast to List Shares in U.S. Through SPAC Merger
Tom Brady, Naomi Osaka, Tony Hawk and Jonah Hill are among the deal’s investors
Hypebeast Ltd. 150 +39.51% is bringing its stock to the U.S. through a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company that will value the lifestyle and culture company at more than $530 million after the investment, according to people familiar with the matter.
Part lifestyle website, part e-commerce company, Hypebeast will merge with Iron Spark I Inc., and the deal will include a $13.3 million private investment in public equity from celebrities that include football player Tom Brady, tennis star Naomi Osaka, professional skateboarder Tony Hawk and actor Jonah Hill, among others.
After the merger, the stock will be dual-listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange and Nasdaq Inc. Hypebeast, which started as a sneaker blog by now-Chief Executive Kevin Ma in 2005, has been listed in Hong Kong since 2016.
The deal comes during a lull in the SPAC market. Starting in mid-2020, blank-check companies surged in popularity. At times in 2021, more new listings happened through shell companies than traditional initial public offerings of stock. Over the past year, however, their popularity receded as regulators took a harder look at whether SPACs skirt investor protections. Last week, the Securities and Exchange Commission advanced rules that could make it harder for SPACs to raise money from investors and execute mergers.
So far this year, the value of SPAC mergers has exceeded $35 billion, compared with nearly $231 billion at this point last year, according to Dealogic.
SPACs tend to be popular alternatives to traditional IPOs in part because they allow early-stage companies to make projections about their growth and financials that aren’t allowed in traditional offerings.
Hypebeast differs from many companies going public via SPACs in that it is already profitable. For the six months ended in September, Hypebeast posted a net profit of roughly $8 million, according to a regulatory filing.
Surging price of battery materials complicates carmakers’ electric plans
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to halt slide in cost of manufacturing batteries
The car industry’s multibillion-dollar bet on electric vehicles was built on a single premise: that batteries would carry on getting cheaper.
In 2019, Volkswagen executives even brandished charts predicting a steady decline in battery costs, as they laid out their ambition to consign the combustion engine to history.
For years the industry was proved right: battery costs fell from $1,000 per KWH for the first models more than a decade ago to about $130 in 2021, paving the way to making them affordable for middle income families.
But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to halt the slide.
Prices of nickel, lithium and cobalt — key raw materials for battery manufacturing — were already rising because of global demand. But with Russia accounting for 11 per cent of the world’s nickel, and supply chains already stretched, the war has sent the cost of such commodities skyrocketing.
The price of these three metals required in a 60KWh battery, enough for a large family sport utility vehicle, has risen from $1,395 a year ago to more than $7,400 in early March, according to battery group Farasis Energy.
Battery companies, carmakers and suppliers are now grappling with the prospect that electric cars may be less profitable, or require cheaper materials, if they are to remain financially competitive.
“At the moment the raw material prices are a burden for our target to reduce battery costs,” said Audi chief financial officer Jürgen Rittersberger, whose brand has pledged to launch battery-only electric cars from 2026.
However, neither Rittersberger nor most of his fellow European car executives are yet raising the alarm about the impact of rising prices on the rollout of electric cars.
For a start, battery material prices are not rising in isolation — costs of aluminium, steel and copper that are also used in engine-powered models have risen since the invasion, too.
“We have to bear in mind that we need specific materials for batteries . . . but we also need, for example, rhodium, palladium and platinum for the [catalytic] converters in our [combustion engine] cars, so we have to expect that the cost in both cars will increase,” said Volkswagen’s chief financial officer Arno Antlitz.
BMW sustainability boss Thomas Becker said the Munich-based carmaker was also not concerned. “We have long term supply contracts with all battery cell suppliers. So I wouldn’t say that there was any imminent effect on the structure of supply,” he said.
“It would be premature to make any predictions about a longer lasting and structured impact on our supply chains at this point.”
In addition, the prospect of electric vehicle price rises comes as demand has surged for battery-powered cars, helped by the big increase in the cost of petrol.
More than 1.1mn battery-driven cars were sold in the first two months of the year, according to figures by Bernstein, an almost 90 per cent rise on the same period last year.
Interest has risen even faster since the invasion of Ukraine, as higher fuel prices increase consumer concerns about running costs.
“Demand [for EVs] has been staggering over the past few weeks,” said Kia’s UK boss Paul Philpot.
AutoTrader, the largest British online marketplace for cars, found that almost a quarter of searches in March were for electric cars, up from 15 per cent a month earlier.
The company’s commercial director Ian Plummer said fuel prices are consistently “the single biggest driver of consumer interest in EVs”.
But in the longer term, electric car prices may still rise, as battery material costs account for about a third of the EV vehicle prices paid by motorists, according to industry estimates.
Chang Jung-hoon, an analyst at Samsung Securities, calculated that a 10 per cent rise in nickel prices will lead to a 2.4 per cent rise in the cathode price. If the spot nickel price of $42,995 on March 7 translates directly into battery prices, the cathode will rise by 26 per cent and the price of the whole battery by 6 per cent.
Much depends on whether higher raw material prices feed into batteries and cars and, eventually, on to consumers.
SK On, one of the world’s largest producers of high-nickel batteries, is “actively hedging against price fluctuations of those metals but surging prices will definitely have a negative impact on our profitability,” head of procurement YJ Kim said.
LG Chem, another battery maker, said: “If the uncertainty continues in the long term, it will have a negative impact on the battery and EV industry as a whole, so we are closely watching the situation.”
Negotiations between carmakers and suppliers, notoriously robust at the best of times, will be key in determining who shoulders the higher prices.
Vitesco, a German auto supplier that makes powertrains, is assuming it can pass through about 80 per cent of higher costs on to manufacturers, finance officer Werner Volz said.
Analysts say manufacturers’ recent enthusiasm for battery cars may even wane as they realise they cannot make as much money from them as previously expected.
“Automakers are likely to shift to premium gasoline cars for higher profitability as their EV profitability is likely to get worse,” predicted Kim Young-woo, an analyst at SK Securities.
“So higher prices of nickel and other metals are likely to fuel concerns for both EV and battery makers because higher prices would dampen consumers’ appetite for EVs.”
VW still predicts its mass market rollout, as well as its collaboration with Ford, will help the company rein in electric vehicle costs.
Andy Palmer, chief executive of Hindujah-backed electric busmaker Switch Mobility who oversaw Nissan’s launch of the electric Leaf car in 2010, says the long-term trajectory of battery prices still heads downwards.
“Over time, I think we’ll continue to see some fall in the cost of batteries through technology change and economies of scale,” he said.
“When we started the production of Nissan Leaf, we were paying about $1,000 per kilowatt hour,” he added. “The price now is about a hundred dollars per kilowatt hour. So over time, you’re definitely seeing a reduction in the price of batteries, and that’s obviously driven by demand and supply.”
Even if prices do rise, sales of electric cars have a momentum that makes them almost unstoppable.
“EVs and batteries are related to the industry trend of regulating carbon emissions,” said Kim at SK On. “They cannot be simply approached from a profitability perspective.”
“Nickel’s price surge can have an impact on EV demand, but it is far-fetched to assume that EV demand will fall.”
‘It’s a radical change’: The prospect of Finland joining Nato draws nearer
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted decades of security thinking in Helsinki
Just four months ago, the idea of Finland joining Nato this year would have seemed far-fetched. Now, the prospect of Russia’s once-neutral neighbour applying to become a member of the western military alliance seems all but inevitable.
Vladimir Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, another non-Nato member that shares a border with Russia, has disrupted decades of security thinking in Helsinki, and for the first time led to a majority of Finns supporting Nato membership.
“All of a sudden, it seems the Finnish population have decided: there is only one option. It’s a radical change, a huge shift in momentum,” said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, leading researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
Carefully neutral throughout the cold war, Finland believes it chose sides when it joined the EU in 1995. But it also thought its security was best served outside a military alliance in order to foster good relations with Russia, with which it shares a 1,340km border. Heavy defence spending was meant to deter any Russian thoughts of invasion.
It had long been expected that Sweden, the other non-Nato Nordic country, would lead the way in the debate about future Nato membership and that Finnish politicians would have to work hard to convince the public of any benefits. But the opposite has happened: according to the latest poll, 62 per cent of Finns are in favour of joining.
Finland’s government is now preparing a white paper on the country’s security, including potential Nato membership, to be released this month. A parliamentary debate will follow, with some MPs pushing for a decision to be taken before a Nato summit in Madrid at the end of June.
One senior Finnish official said he had long wondered what it would take to shift his country’s Nato stance. Neither Russia’s 2008 war with Georgia, nor its 2014 annexation of Crimea changed public opinion in Finland, and support for Nato membership remained at about 20 per cent.
“A major conventional war in the middle of Europe by an aggressive Russia did it. The Finnish political elite have always thought Finland is best served by having a working, rational relationship with Russia . . . But seeing how Russia behaves now has changed people’s minds and means we can’t have a rational relationship,” he said.
Tytti Tuppurainen, Finland’s EU minister, said it was of “paramount importance” that the majority of Finns wanted to join Nato. “It is a call to us decision makers to swiftly analyse the situation and make decisions. We are ready for that.”
The conflict in Ukraine has shown what can happen to countries not covered by Nato’s collective defence pledge. But in Finland it has also revived memories of its 1939-40 winter war against the Soviet Union in which Finnish forces, largely alone, resisted a far larger army but lost territory in the process.
“We should never have to be alone again . . . In order to improve our security and guarantee our independence, we should join Nato. We still have a powerful and aggressive neighbour,” said Petteri Orpo, leader of the main opposition National Coalition party, a longtime supporter of membership.
But the position of the two largest government parties, the Social Democrats of prime minister Sanna Marin and the Centre party, will be crucial. Both have previously been divided over Nato. Marin said on Saturday that a decision on whether to join Nato should be taken “this spring”.
There are also concerns in Helsinki about Finland’s potential vulnerability in the period between voting to join Nato and actually becoming a member. “How long would it be and what would Finland’s security look like during that timeframe?” asked Orpo.
Last month Sauli Niinisto, Finland’s president, discussed Nato membership with the alliance’s secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, who has previously said any application would be processed quickly. But it would still take several months to be ratified by all 30 members and some Finnish officials worry that a Nato country could push for a delay for fear of provoking Russia.
Niinisto declined to comment when questioned by the Financial Times on whether he had asked US president Joe Biden for security guarantees when visiting Washington in March.
There is also debate over whether a Finnish application to Nato might be seen as a provocation to Russia rather than simply a response to Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine.
The senior official said: “Applying for membership carries awful risks for Finland, and for Nato. We have a very unpredictable, aggressive neighbour . . . I have always said that joining military alliances is something you do in quiet times, so that you do not import any instability into the organisation you join.”
Others argue that Finland, with its well-trained army and high level of preparedness, would be useful for Nato both in its defence of the Baltic states and the Arctic.
Foreign minister Pekka Haavisto said the whole European security order had been destabilised by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. “So many principles were broken, so many agreements violated. Everybody’s interests are to try to make decisions so they are not provoking anything or destabilising things. But, at the same time, you have to make your own decisions to improve security.”
The timing of a potential Nato bid by Finland is far from decided. Orpo worries that a drawn-out process would become more complicated if Sweden’s elections in September and US midterms in November muddied the waters.
Those advocating a swift request point to the lack of a real alternative. Niinisto said the point would be to further deepen ties with the US and Sweden. But Orpo and others said that Nato membership would mark the final step in Finland’s process of fully joining the west.
“For me, Nato membership is not just about the pro and cons, it’s a bigger question of our identity,” said Orpo. “We are a western country and have been a member of the EU for 25 years. In this sense, our place is in Nato as well.”
Enel chief blames EU energy policy for bloc’s reliance on gas imports
Head of world’s second-biggest utility says region should have tackled the problem long ago
The head of the world’s second-largest utility has hit out at the EU’s energy policy, saying the bloc should have “aggressively” addressed its dependence on imported gas long ago.
Francesco Starace, chief executive of Italy’s Enel, urged member states to switch rapidly to other energy sources in order to sever ties with Russia, after Vladimir Putin’s move to issue gas invoicing in roubles added to tensions over the war in Ukraine.
Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a decree last week demanding that nations deemed “unfriendly” must pay for gas deliveries in roubles from April, using an account in the Russian currency at Gazprombank, or face a halt in supplies.
Starace, who has been at the helm of state-controlled Enel since 2014, said European nations should have started worrying about their energy dependency from third countries years ago.
“This is Russia’s turn but let’s not forget what happened in Libya 10 years ago,” said the 67-year-old chief executive. “Where gas is coming into Europe from is a problem.”
He said the EU should have managed its “dependence on fossil fuels, namely gas, in a better and more aggressive way”.
Starace urged European nations to free themselves from “physical links” to other countries by building regasification plants and leasing floating ones to process seaborne liquefied natural gas, which would allow them to diversify supplies and cut ties to fixed pipelines.
He also called on them the accelerate the transition to other energy sources including renewables, while acknowledging this could not be done overnight.
“Burning gas to generate electricity is totally stupid . . . both from economic standpoint and from an environmental [one], gas is precious and it should be used where it is irreplaceable,” Starace said.
“Of course these things require some time, so you need to do things in the order of importance,” he added. “And clearly you have first to survive and then try to reduce your dependence.”
Enel, which has a market capitalisation of €62bn and is one of the world’s largest renewable energy producers, plans to stop using fossil fuels to generate electricity by 2040.
It signed an agreement with the European Commission last week to ramp up solar panel production in Sicily within the EU’s Innovation Fund framework.
The EU hopes to build its renewables capacity to 600 terawatt hours by 2030, a timeline that has run into criticism from businesses and politicians across Europe because of the potential impact on jobs and a rise in costs linked to the transition.
But for Starace, “the cost is when you buy gas, you burn it, and it’s finished . . . When you put your money into something that remains in your hands and keeps producing energy, that’s an investment.”
Gas, mostly Russian, currently makes up 40 per cent of Italy’s electricity generation mix.
Starace insisted he was “not demonising Russia”, saying the problem would be the same with “any other place”.
Enel has €300mn exposure to Russia, where it employs 1,500 people at its three large combined-cycle thermoelectric power plants using gas to produce electricity for the domestic network and provide heating to three large cities.
The Enel chief was one of a group of chief executives to enervate the Rome government in January by attending a video conference with Putin to discuss expanding business ties between the two countries.
Starace said he had not been expecting “this kind of escalation” at the time and that Enel was now looking at leaving the country. “If we can sell [to a Russian party], then we will exit,” he said.
“Otherwise I think it will be very difficult for us to continue anyway, to guarantee the functioning of these units in the proper way.”
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DAX:
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MDAX:
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SDAX:
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