>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 23rd of January 2022 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Beazley PT Raised to 600 pence from 490 pence at Berenberg
* Close Brothers Raised to Buy at Investec; PT 1,430 pence (+)
* EasyJet Raised to Outperform at Davy
* Lufthansa Raised to Outperform at Davy (+)
* Mips Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 1,150 kronor
* Nobia Raised to Buy at Carnegie; PT 60 kronor
* Renault Raised to Outperform at Exane; PT 52 euros
* Richemont PT Raised to 178 Swiss francs at Citi
* Sage Raised to Buy at Redburn
* Salzgitter PT Raised to 45 euros at Baader Helvea (+)
* Siemens Gamesa Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 20 euros
* Sobi Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 220 kronor
* Swatch Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 360 Swiss francs
* Swedish Match Raised to Buy at Handelsbanken; PT 87 kronor
* Swiss Re Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse
* Topdanmark Raised to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 392 kroner
* UBS Group Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 18 Swiss francs

>>> Down
* AB Foods Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 2,250 pence
* Ahold Delhaize Cut to Underperform at Exane; PT 27 euros
* Barratt Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 644 pence
* Berkeley Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 4,703 pence
* Chevron Cut to Hold at Finam Investment; PT $137.50
* Credit Suisse Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 9 Swiss francs
* Datagroup Cut to Hold at M.M. Warburg; PT 95 euros (+)
* EDF Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT 8.50 euros
* Freeport Cut to Hold at Finam Investment; PT $46
* Halma Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 2,120 pence
* Hannover Re Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT 185 euros
* J D Wetherspoon Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader(Earlier)
* National Grid Cut to Neutral at Citi
* Netflix Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $415
* Nobia Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 55 kronor
* NN Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 54 euros
* Siemens Energy Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 20 euros
* UCB Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 95 euros

>>> Initiation
* BHG Group Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 115 kronor
* Bico Group Rated New Buy at Handelsbanken; PT 375 kronor
* Daimler Truck Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT 41 euros (+)
* Datrix Rated New Buy at Alantra Equities; PT 5.40 euros (+)
* Endeavour Mining Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 2,773.99 pence (+)
* Public Policy Holding Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 192 pence (+)
* Yara Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 575 kroner

>>> Call
* Barratt, Bellway and Berkeley Cut at Jefferies on Cladding Risk
* EDF Cut at Bernstein on Risk of Extended Nuclear Plant Outages
* Ferrexpo Downgraded to Hold at Peel Hunt on Ukrainian Tensions
* National Grid Now Fairly Valued, Citi Downgrades to Neutral
* Philips 4Q Misses Estimates, 1H Outlook Disappointing: Bernstein (+)
* QinetiQ Growth Opportunities Earn New Buy Rating From Jefferies
* Renault Raised to Outperform at Exane, Sees EPS Upgrades Coming
* Schindler CEO Exit ‘Unlikely to Inspire Confidence’: Vontobel (+)
* Swiss Re Raised at Credit Suisse, Hannover Re Cut to Neutral (+)
* Unilever Activist Will Probably Push for Split, Jefferies Says (+)

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Unilever (UNVB TH) +2.4%
    • Activist Hedge Fund Trian Builds Stake in Unilever: FT (1)
  • Siemens Gamesa (GTQ1 TH) +1.9%
  • Alstom (AOMD TH) +1.2%
  • Vestas (VWSB TH) +1%
  • Rio Tinto (RIO1 TH) +1%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +0.9%
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) -1.9%
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) -2%
  • OMV (OMV TH) -2%
  • ArcelorMittal (ARRD TH) -2.1%
  • ASML (ASME TH) -2.2%
  • Nokia (NOA3 TH) -2.3%
  • Eurofins Scientific (ESF0 TH) -2.3%
  • EQT (6EQ TH) -2.4%
  • BT (BTQ TH) -3%
  • Ahold Delhaize (AHOG TH) -3.6%
    • Ahold Delhaize Cut to Underperform at Exane; PT 27 euros

(ZH) After Three Weeks Of Absence, Stock Buybacks Are Back... As Is VWAP Dip-Buy

After Three Weeks Of Absence, Stock Buybacks Are Back... As Is VWAP Dip-Buying

After peaking on Jan 4, stocks have been a one-way train lower and while traders have had little problem to digest the stated reason behind the market's weakness, namely the Fed's growing hawkishness, there has been some confusion as to the circularity of cause and event, and whether we haven't merely seen a lot of narrative goalseeking ("blame the Fed') in the past three weeks to explain the lack of even modest dip-buying.
However, we now may have an explanation for not only the late day market swoons but also for the market's broader weakness, and it has little to do with the Fed (which everyone knows won't let markets crash).
The reason for the market's odd behavior is simple - buybacks, or rather lack thereof, because as Goldman reminded us earlier today (see here) so far in 2022, there has been no corporate buyback activity (with the exception of small activity in 5b29-1 plans).
That's right: as Goldman's Scott Ribner writes, US corporates - the largest purchaser of stocks in 2021 - has been out of the market for 2022, which is why there has been no VWAP-style buying of the dip.
But on Friday, the blackout period ended, and buyback restart again on Monday... and now with much lower prices. Some more details from Goldman (full report available to pro subscribers):
Corporates return to the market on Monday (1/24/22) for the first time in 2022 with the nimble ability to now buy into weakness. US corporates are the largest buyer of the equity market in 2022, with +$975 Billion of demand, the best year on record.
This is roughly $245B per quarter (next blackout is March 14th). ~$245B / 45 days blackout adjusted. This is $5.5B per day during this stretch. 8% of the S&P is currently in the open window. This matters for the index level, as much as not being in the market, also mattered.
So between a whopping $5.5BN in daily purchases by price-indiscriminate buyers (whose only limitation is how much money they can raise in the corporate bond market and then immediately flip to use the proceeds to buy back stock) and some $3.3 trillion in option expirations which mean that the negative gamma dealer overhang is now gone (as well as over a dozen other reasons why we are due for a major relief rally), don't be surprised if this extremely illiquid market...
... rips to the upside tomorrow when the latest iteration of shorts panics and scrambles to cover ahead of the buyback.

WSJ : U.A.E. Intercepts Two Ballistic Missiles Over Capital as Gulf Tensions Esc

U.A.E. Intercepts Two Ballistic Missiles Over Capital as Gulf Tensions Escalate
A previous attack in Abu Dhabi by Yemen’s Houthi rebels killed three people and injured six others

DUBAI—The United Arab Emirates said it intercepted two ballistic missiles launched by the Houthi rebels in the most recent attack targeting its capital of Abu Dhabi that threatens to widen Yemen’s yearslong civil war across the region.

The U.A.E said early Monday that the attack resulted in no casualties but scattered shards of missiles across Abu Dhabi. Videos posted to social media Monday before dawn showed bright lights in the sky above the city, and residents reported hearing explosions.

The country is prepared to deal with threats and takes all necessary measures to protect itself, the U.A.E.’s Defense Ministry said in a statement on state news agency WAM.

The Iran-aligned Houthis didn’t immediately claim responsibility for the attack. They claimed one last week on the U.A.E. that killed three people and injured six others.

The Houthis have shown they are willing to attack the U.A.E., which has become the main hub for international business in the Middle East, and the assaults escalate tensions in the Persian Gulf. The U.A.E. and its allies are fighting a seven-year war in Yemen on the side of the country’s internationally recognized government against the Houthi rebels.

In Saudi Arabia, two residents suffered minor injuries after the Houthis fired a ballistic missile that fell in an industrial area of Jizan, a city in the south of the country, near the Yemeni border, Saudi state media reported Sunday.

Saudi Arabia, which is leading the coalition fighting the Houthis, has been attacked hundreds of times since the Saudis entered the war in 2015. But the Yemeni rebels in recent years have expanded their range, adding the U.A.E. as a target.

In response to the attack on the U.A.E., the Saudi-led coalition launched days of airstrikes on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen.

The coalition hit a prison in a town north of the capital city of Sana’a on Friday, killing dozens and injuring scores of others, the Houthis said. Around 200 people, including 70 who died, were transferred to hospitals, Doctors Without Borders, or MSF, said.

The Houthis, which are backed by Iran, said last week that they had targeted Abu Dhabi with ballistic and cruise missiles and drones because the Gulf state recently escalated violence in Yemen.

Earlier this month, Emirati-backed militants dealt the Houthis an unexpected defeat in the oil-rich province of Shabwa, and the U.A.E. has increased efforts recently in support of local anti-Houthi rebels in Yemen.

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +1.3%
    • Siemens Energy Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 20 euros
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -1.4%
  • Airbus (AIR TH) -1.4%
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) -1.4%
  • SAP (SAP TH) -1.6%
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) -2%
MDAX:
  • United Internet (UTDI TH) +2.3%
  • AUTO1 (AG1 TH) +0.9%
  • K+S (SDF TH) -1.6%
  • GEA Group (G1A TH) -1.6%
  • Varta (VAR1 TH) -2%
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) -2.2%
  • Hypoport SE (HYQ TH) -2.3%
SDAX:
  • SUSE (SUSE TH) +1.4%
  • Draegerwerk (DRW3 TH) +1%
  • Sixt (SIX2 TH) -1.9%
  • Eckert & Ziegler (EUZ TH) -2%
  • Nagarro SE (NA9 TH) -2.5%
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) -2.8%
  • PVA TePla (TPE TH) -4%

WSJ : Activist Investor to Call on Peloton to Fire Its CEO

Activist Investor to Call on Peloton to Fire Its CEO
Blackwells Capital to push stationary-bike maker to explore a sale, sources say

An activist investor wants Peloton Interactive Inc. to fire its chief executive and explore a sale after the stationary-bike maker’s stock plummeted more than 80% from its high, as growth slowed.

Blackwells Capital LLC has a significant stake of less than 5% in Peloton and is preparing to push the company’s board to fire CEO John Foley and pursue a sale, according to people familiar with the matter. The firm believes Peloton could be an attractive acquisition target for larger technology or fitness-oriented companies, the people said.

Once a pandemic darling as homebound customers ordered its exercise equipment that pairs with virtual classes, Peloton’s stock is trading below its September 2019 initial public offering price of $29 a share.

Peloton’s shares plunged 24% Thursday after a CNBC report that it was temporarily halting production of its products because of decreasing demand. Mr. Foley said in a subsequent letter to employees that Peloton is reviewing the size of its workforce and resetting production levels, as the company adapts to more seasonal demand for its equipment. He also said the report was incomplete.

Mr. Foley also said in a statement that day that the company is “taking significant corrective actions to improve our profitability outlook and optimize our costs” and would share more details with earnings Feb. 8. The company reported preliminary second-quarter revenue of $1.14 billion and said it ended the quarter with 2.77 million subscribers.

Earlier last week, Peloton disclosed on its website that it would start charging customers hundreds of dollars in delivery fees and setup charges for its bikes and treadmills. In August, Peloton cut the list price of its original bike by 20%.

Peloton share’s rebounded 12% Friday, closing at $27.06 and giving the company a market value of nearly $9 billion. At its high around a year ago, the New York company had a market value of $50 billion.

Blackwells argues that the company is weaker today than before the pandemic, the people said. The firm places much of the blame on Mr. Foley, who is also chairman, and believes Peloton would be better off as part of a larger company, they said.

While the fund isn’t a household name, Blackwells has run successful activist campaigns before, and analysts have said Peloton could be vulnerable to an investor challenge or takeover, given its recent woes. Blackwells, founded in 2016 by Jason Aintabi, previously agitated at Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corp. , a real-estate investment trust that agreed to a roughly $4 billion sale, and at another REIT, Colony Capital Inc., and Colony Credit. The multiyear Colony campaign resulted in former CEO Tom Barrack ‘s stepping down and a revamp of the business.

Still, it would take significant pressure from other shareholders to prompt change, given that Mr. Foley and other insiders have supervoting Class B shares. Those shares gave them control over 80% of Peloton’s voting power as of Sept. 30, according to a company proxy filing.

Blackwells is critical of Mr. Foley for a laundry list of actions, including what it says are inconsistent pricing and manufacturing strategies, the people said.

Mr. Foley, a former Barnes & Noble Inc. executive, and others co-founded the company in 2012 and began selling bikes in 2014.

Peloton has also been unfavorably featured recently in television shows, including in the Season 6 premiere of Showtime’s hedge-fund drama “Billions” released Friday. In that show and HBO’s Sex and the City reboot “And Just Like That…” main characters had heart attacks during or after Peloton workouts.

Peloton said in a statement posted on Twitter that it didn’t agree for the brand to be used on “Billions.”

“As the show itself points out, cardio-vascular exercise helps people lead long, happy lives,” the company said.

Le Figaro : Jean Imbert, le copiste futé du Plaza Athénée

Jean Imbert, le copiste futé du Plaza Athénée


Jean Imbert, chef au Plaza Athénée, Paris (8e). François Bouchon / Le Figaro
CRITIQUE GASTRONOMIQUE - L’ancien vainqueur de «Top Chef» ne fait pas l’unanimité. Contrairement au critique du Figaro Scope, emballé par sa partition classique dans le palace parisien, notre chroniqueur est perplexe après un dîner au 25 avenue Montaigne.

Jean Imbert est un malin. À 40 ans, il a lu Gouffé, Carême et Escoffier, comme tout le monde, mais lui se flatte d’y avoir puisé une révélation: après Mamie, le restaurant où il rendait hommage à sa grand-mère, voici en quelque sorte «Papis», au cœur du vénérable Plaza Athénée. Pour balayer l’héritage de l’ère Ducasse, sa «naturalité» céréales-légumes-poisson et sa codification maniaque de la haute gastronomie de l’épluchage des navets au pliage des serviettes, place au répertoire cocorico normé à une époque où qui n’avait pas la goutte à 50 ans avait raté sa vie.

S’il existait un titre de meilleur ouvrier de France catégorie réseaux sociaux, Jean Imbert serait un concurrent redoutable. Le jeune homme, moqué par une partie de l’establishment culinaire pour sa supposée inaptitude à un tel poste avant même qu’il ait noué son tablier au Plaza, a parfaitement communiqué depuis sa nomination en juin 2021. Tout en surjouant les Calimero, il a lancé un habile storytelling sur le thème «hommage aux pères fondateurs», de sorte que critiquer Imbert reviendrait à blasphémer la Sainte-Trinité des fourneaux.

C’est là qu’intervient la distinction entre l’artiste et le copiste. Quand Francis Bacon contemple le portrait du pape Innocent X par Vélasquez, il en tire une série de toiles stupéfiantes dans son style à lui. Quand Paul McCartney écoute Bach, il compose Blackbird, un chef-d’œuvre qui sonne Beatles. Quand le chefissime Arnaud Donckele (re)lit Escoffier, il s’en évade pour inventer des sauces modernes, légères, inédites.

Vous avez compris où nous voulons en venir: Jean Imbert n’a pas de style. Il a de l’énergie et des idées adaptées aux canons d’Instagram: recréer aux frais du propriétaire un cadre fastueux (plafond doré à la feuille, immense table de marbre, etc.) pour y servir une cuisine riche, surabondante, dans une vaisselle spectaculaire. La forme prime sur le fond, la mise en scène sur l’inventivité du chef médiatique distingué par GQ et Vanity Fair. Les convives sont anesthésiés par le décorum et une débauche de crème et de beurre. Nous mettons au défi quiconque de terminer les six assiettes qui composent le dessert (38 €) après avoir dégusté un menu composé de plats tels que la tarte chantilly truffée, le vol-au-vent, le veau Orloff, le pithiviers de Saint-Jacques, le canard à la bigarade, le bœuf Richelieu… Ce n’est plus de la générosité, mais du gavage. La chronique d’un gaspillage annoncé, aussi.

Le vol-au-vent de Jean Imbert, chef au Plaza Athénée, Paris (8e). Boby Allin
La salle semble cependant aux anges. L’arrivée du vainqueur de «Top Chef» en 2012 draine au Plaza une clientèle inhabituelle: moins de cravates, plus de baskets. On applaudit comme un seul homme quand, vers 22 heures, une voix de stentor accompagnée d’un grelot annonce: «Mesdames et Messieurs, la Pâtisserie!» - un rideau se lève et découvre l’équipe du sucré en plein ouvrage. «Au théâtre ce soir» ressuscité.

Un dîner qui laisse perplexe
En dépit de l’appréciation élogieuse d’Emmanuel Rubin (Figaro Scope du 19 janvier) , notre dîner nous a laissé non pas sur notre faim, mais perplexe. La langouste en Bellevue (118 €) est servie avec sa mayonnaise au corail, escortée d’une mosaïque de légumes baignant dans une sauce à l’estragon et d’une pince de homard joliment préparée (mais beaucoup trop froide). Ces trois éléments n’ont pas grand-chose à se dire: l’excès d’estragon jure avec le corail, les médaillons de crustacés pochés puis voilés d’une fine gelée (pas facile de les attraper soi-même sur la carapace d’apparat) manquent de caractère marin, les légumes sont fades.

La tarte sablée chantilly truffée (88 €) tient, en revanche, de la réussite: simplissime, douce comme le péché et agrémentée d’une salade de mâche vigoureusement assaisonnée (le seul légume vert à l’état naturel de la soirée). Le vol-au-vent (108 €) réunit tous les ingrédients classiques de la spécialité: ris de veau, rognons et crêtes-de-coq, écrevisses, champignons, quenelle de volaille. Cuisson impeccable - toutes le sont, Jean Imbert est épaulé par le très capé Jocelyn Herland. L’audace présumée réside dans le fait que la garniture arrive à découvert et que son chapeau feuilleté est déposé sous vos yeux. Cela n’apporte rien au goût et complique la vie du service. Est-ce bon? Oui, mais pas véritablement «signé» car l’audace n’est qu’artifice.

Des desserts préparés par Angelo Musa et Elisabeth Hot, nous déplorions tout à l’heure le caractère calorico-pantagruélique qui relève du gag (marquise au chocolat + glace au nougat + puits d’amour + ambassadeur + crêpe soufflée et flambée + fontainebleau pomme-livèche). Mais ils sont délicieux - oh, cet ambassadeur magnifiquement réhabilité!

Que restera-t-il de ce dîner? Rien. La cuisine de Jean Imbert, tarifée d’emblée à un niveau de multi-étoilé comme pour forcer la main au Michelin annoncé pour mars prochain, manque profondément d’âme et d’insolence, en un mot d’esprit: pour les authentiques créateurs d’émotions, le patrimoine est un tremplin, pas une fin en soi.

Mention spéciale, toutefois, pour le service jeune, virevoltant, précis et à bonne distance, supervisé par Denis Courtiade. Ce rescapé de l’équipe Ducasse, directeur de salle multirécompensé (pas par GQ ou Vanity Fair), reste passionné comme un gamin. La valeur sûre du Plaza, c’est lui.

Jean Imbert au Plaza Athénée. 25, avenue Montaigne (Paris 8e). Tél.: 01 53 67 65 00. Dîner du mar. au sam., déj. le sam. Compter 250 € à la carte, menu à 296 € (hors boisson).