FT The Big Read : Powering electric cars: the race to mine lithium in America’s

Powering electric cars: the race to mine lithium in America’s backyard
The experience of one mining company in rural North Carolina suggests the road ahead will be hard to navigate
At his small red brick farmhouse home near the Catawba river in the rural Piedmont region of North Carolina, Brian Harper is caught up in the dilemma facing America’s big push towards a future powered by green energy.

Running in a band beneath the soil close to Harper’s land lies America’s biggest deposit of spodumene ore, a mineral that when processed into lithium is crucial to building rechargeable batteries of the kind used in electric vehicles.

Seeing the business opportunity in this fast-growing area, Piedmont Lithium, a mining company originally incorporated in Australia, began knocking on the doors of the old houses surrounding a roughly 3,000-acre site several years ago, offering to buy up land so that it could start drilling a large pit mine to extract the mineral.

With the International Energy Agency projecting a boom in demand that vastly exceeds planned supply in coming years, Piedmont found no difficulty pledging future sales of lithium to Tesla, America’s poster-child electric car company, even before they secured all of the necessary mining permits.

But while it has successfully bought up some parcels of land, Piedmont Lithium has run into staunch opposition from many of its potential new neighbours, including Harper, who runs a small business making cogs and gears for industrial machinery just a little down the road from the proposed new mine.


Piedmont Lithium’s offices in Belmont, Gaston County. The company has run into staunch opposition from many of its potential new neighbours near its proposed mine © Ernest Scheyder/Reuters
“When they start blasting and the floor is shaking, there’s no way my machinery will be able to function properly,” says Harper. In keeping with almost every home on the rural country roads running around and through the proposed mine site, Harper has a small picket sign in his front garden displaying a red stop sign and in large font, struck through with a red line: “Gaston County Pit Mine”.

Others spoken to by the Financial Times argue that a hard rock mine of the size that Piedmont proposes would cause light, noise and dust pollution, as well as contaminate their water supply with poisonous runoff materials.

Many of the houses surrounding the site of the proposed mine are not connected to a municipal water system, and instead extract their drinking water from wells, compounding worries that any accidental runoff or contamination of groundwater from the mine would poison their water sources.

Piedmont Lithium says the company has “several” noise and dust mitigation plans in place, including limiting the number of trucks being used. It pledged to keep hazardous water out of surface water creeks, streams and the groundwater, and to monitor water quantity and quality in local wells. “If we become aware of any issue with local wells, it will be corrected,” the company says.

Piedmont has argued in public meetings that its new mine, which would be accompanied by a processing plant, would bring new jobs to the area.

But the company’s plan to launch one of the first big new lithium mines in decades, and only the second operational lithium mine in the US at present, has already fallen behind schedule. Construction was meant to be under way by 2020. As of May 2022, it has yet to apply for all of the permits it needs to break ground.

The US electric vehicle battery industry is central to President Joe Biden’s plans to create a greener, more innovative economy, and his administration is determined to expand domestic mining of the minerals on which green technologies rely. At the end of March, it invoked the Korean-war era Defense Production Act to free up more money to be used to assist in the domestic mining of lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and manganese.

But lithium represents perhaps the greatest opportunity for the US. The International Energy Agency named lithium as the mineral for which there was the fastest growing demand as the world transitions from oil and gas to a green energy grid. If the world is to meet the global climate targets set as part of the Paris Agreement, at least 40 times as much lithium will be needed by 2040 compared with today.

The US holds about 8mn tonnes of lithium, according to the US Geological Survey, putting it in the top five most lithium-rich countries in the world. Yet it mines and processes only 1 per cent of global output. Much of the rest comes from China, Chile and Australia.

As the US attempts to surge ahead in the global race to build batteries that will power the green transition, Washington is encouraging companies such as Piedmont to break ground on more mining projects across the continental United States. But it also wants to ensure state regulators, environmental activists and local communities are not left behind in the rush.

America in the race
The explosion in the electric vehicle market has set off a “battery arms race”, according to Simon Moores, chief executive of consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, which specialises in data on lithium ion batteries.

Battery manufacturers will be trying to source the raw minerals needed to make batteries, including cobalt, nickel, graphite and lithium. Yet while scientists are having early success developing batteries that do not need cobalt or nickel to function, there are so far no leads on eliminating lithium. According to Moores, “lithium is the one that terrifies the industry”.

The IEA says more than 80 per cent of the world’s lithium is mined in Australia, Chile and China, which alone controls more than half of the world’s processing and refining. The US has a single open lithium mine, in Nevada, and imports the majority of its supply from Argentina and Chile.



The US’s willingness to allow its manufacturing to take place overseas has attracted criticism. “America has, I would say, at the altar of the big fossil fuel companies, given up being technologically innovative when it comes to energy,” says Emily Hersh, an analyst at consultancy DBDC Group, and the chief executive of a company undertaking a lithium brine exploration project in Nevada.

“We outsource everything for slightly lower costs,” says Hersh. “We have punted the supply chains behind the technology we use and love to cheaper jurisdictions, or jurisdictions without stringent environmental policy, so that we can get them cheaper and faster.”

In 2018, then-president Donald Trump issued an executive order aimed at breaking the US dependence on minerals from abroad, especially from China, declaring a “national emergency” that would theoretically open up funding for domestic mining and processing.

The supply shortages of the Covid-19 pandemic prompted Washington to pay even closer attention to the security of its critical imports. After Biden took over the White House, in early 2021, he ordered a further review of critical supply chains for a whole host of imports deemed important to national security, including minerals, pharmaceuticals and computer chips.

Later that summer, the US Department of Energy released a blueprint specifically aimed at reviving the US’s battery supply chain, including securing access to the raw minerals needed to make batteries by incentivising “safe, equitable and sustainable” domestic mining, and investing in processes to recycle dead batteries to re-use the minerals they hold.

The DoE noted that China dominates the supply chain for the manufacturing of lithium batteries, including the processing of minerals. Biden’s infrastructure bill has made billions of dollars available to help boost American processing of minerals needed for batteries.

While there is only one operational lithium mine in the US at present, a number of companies are pressing to get mining projects operational. Lithium Americas is planning a mine at Thacker Pass in Northern Nevada, while Australia-based Ioneer USA Corp also wants to build a large mine in southern Nevada, about 530km north of Los Angeles. Several other companies are proposing projects that would extract lithium from geothermal brine, including one at California’s largest lake in Salton Sea.

In Washington, both Democrats and Republican lawmakers have said they would support updating the federal law dated from 1872 that governs mining on American public lands. Lawmakers variously want to boost US mining capacity and insert more robust environmental protections. While that law does not apply to the Gaston County mine, which is being earmarked for privately owned land, it would affect the vast majority of potential mines in Nevada.

The explicit support for hard rock mining has attracted criticism from environmentalists, who argue that the government should focus its efforts on recycling initiatives.

Lauren Pagel, policy director at Earthworks, an environmental advocacy group, says the US must get “serious about responsible sourcing of clean energy minerals”.

Earthworks has said the growing demand for minerals should be addressed by better recycling initiatives, and that it should update the country’s mining laws to make sure they protect the environment and surrounding watersheds. “The clean energy transition cannot be built on dirty mining,” she says.

White House officials have said triggering the Domestic Production Act would not allow mining companies to bypass or expedite any permitting or environmental review processes.

Digging a hole
In North Carolina, Piedmont is still trying to get past stage one. The company first began acquiring land for its proposed mine in 2016, and has been carrying out some initial drilling to establish the presence and quality of the potential lithium.

By mid-June 2020, the company said it owned or had agreements on approximately 2,126 acres of property and associated mineral rights in the area. That September, Piedmont announced it had struck a five-year deal with Tesla and was set to supply the carmaker with spodumene concentrate, the material that would be extracted from the mine and processed into lithium. Late that year, it announced it would redomicile itself from Australia to the US.


In an SEC filing, Piedmont said the deal would see Tesla receive about 53,000 tonnes of the material a year for five years, with the first deliveries beginning between July 2022 and July 2023.

But Piedmont has yet to obtain permits to begin mining. The permitting process for hard rock mining on private lands involves getting permission and passing environmental checks made by state regulators, as well as obtaining local county land-use permits in Gaston County.

The company’s ambitious proposals have sent local officials in Gaston County scrambling to update their decades-old mining regulations, which did not envision a mine of the type and size that Piedmont wants to build. As they reviewed and updated their rules, they put a moratorium on new mining.

“We basically needed to get our house in order,” says Chad Brown, a Gaston County commissioner who will be one of those considering a permit application from Piedmont, who said regulations were tightened to make sure that the mining did not occur at unsociable hours, for example.

In August 2021, Piedmont said it would have to delay its first shipments from its proposed mine to Tesla. In a statement to the FT, the company says it is continuing to work diligently with state mining officials towards the finalisation of its state mining permit, and providing regular updates to Gaston County commissioners as it prepares to apply for the mining permissions that the county oversees.

But people who live and work near the mine say the company has not been as communicative with them about their concerns. Brian Harper says that although the mine would destroy his business, he has not been directly contacted by Piedmont Lithium. He has raised his concerns with them in multiple public meetings, he says.

Piedmont says it had “noted Mr Harper’s concern” and “discussed . . . the best course of study about whether the project will have any impact on his business” with its engineers.

“We are committed to being a good neighbour, a good steward of the environment and a good employer, and we will reach out to Mr Harper — and all our neighbours — to have further conversations as we move forward,” the company says.

Just a few minutes’ drive down the road from Brian Harper, Eric Carpenter’s family owns about five acres of land, including the home of his 85-year-old mother. “My family is not interested in selling to Piedmont,” says Carpenter. “They’re telling us: ‘sell, or we’ll mine around you’.”

Piedmont says this comment did not “reflect our mission or values”.

The Carpenter family, along with others, name the potential pollution of their water sources as a top concern. Eric Carpenter has written to his local politicians to request a moratorium on large mining projects until the 1971 state law governing mining in North Carolina can be updated, but was not able to secure any moratorium.

Lisa Stroup, a biologist who has worked for another minerals company, FMC Lithium, has written pages of detailed notes to North Carolina state authorities in response to Piedmont Lithium’s permit application and lab testing to express concerns about the sample sizes and potential for toxic mining waste.

“One of the big frustrations I have, one that makes me very fearful, is that the state is not giving this careful consideration,” says Stroup. “We are in a community that is already overburdened. People have said to me that if they’re made to tap into municipal water — I can’t afford it so I’m gonna have to just drink the water.”

Piedmont says its lab testing and other studies are part of a “rigorous permitting process” and are being conducted by experienced and well-regarded scientists, hydrogeologists, engineers, and other experts in accordance with best practices and the standards set by the state and federal authorities.

Brown and other county commissioners who hold the fate of Piedmont Lithium’s local permits in their hands have been sceptical about the company’s approach so far.

But Brown says that he hopes to be “as middle of the road as I can”. “I want to give them due diligence and hear what they say, and also answer the questions of the naysayers,” he says.

“If it’s just about money, [the mine] is the greatest thing, because it brings jobs and brings money and brings glorious things,” Brown says. “But it’s not just that, it has to do with the environment, the quality of life for the people who are surrounding it.”

FT : Stellantis chief warns of battery shortages as carmakers switch to electric

Stellantis chief warns of battery shortages as carmakers switch to electric
Carlos Tavares says supply challenges will feed into bigger problem of keeping electric vehicles affordable

The head of Stellantis has warned that carmakers will struggle to get hold of enough batteries in the next three to four years as they race to roll out electric vehicles, leaving some manufacturers by the wayside as supply bottlenecks pile up.

Carlos Tavares told the Financial Times’ Future of the Car conference on Tuesday that car manufacturers may not be able to build their own battery plants fast enough to avoid shortages in the medium term.

“We will have around 2025 or 2026 a short supply of batteries,” he said. “And if there is no short supply of batteries then there will be a significant dependence of the western world vis-à-vis Asia.”

The battery shortages would add to other problems such as growing concerns over how and where raw materials were extracted, he added.

Tavares said the battery supply challenges would feed into the bigger problem of keeping cars affordable in the switch to electric models, which would be an issue for manufacturers’ margins in a “Darwinian period for the industry”.

“Those not able to transform will be in trouble,” he said.

Volkswagen boss Herbert Diess said at the Future of the Car summit on Monday that his company was unlikely to be able to go faster in pushing out electric cars because of supply constraints on batteries and the slow roll out of charging stations.

The German group plans to derive 50 to 60 per cent of car sales from electric models in 2030, from under a quarter now.

“Could it happen faster? We could accelerate a bit more maybe but not a lot,” said Diess, who also called for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine during the summit.

Stellantis, formed last year through the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot maker PSA, and other European manufacturers have been investing in battery production ventures in the region, but many are not fully up and running unlike those in markets such as South Korea.

The carmaker has ambitious plans to become one of the leading producers of battery powered vehicles as it hopes to challenge Tesla and Elon Musk, who is due to take part in the FT’s Future of the Car conference at 6pm GMT on Tuesday.

Tavares wants Stellantis to sell 5mn battery powered vehicles by 2030, up from just under 400,000 last year, and is aiming for an all-electric approach in Europe by then.

The sourcing of raw materials, including those needed to make lighter frames for cars weighed down by batteries, would create problems down the line too, said Tavares.

“Everyone is going to pour EV vehicles on the market,” he said. “Where is the charging infrastructure? Where are the geopolitical risks of sourcing those raw materials? Who is looking at the full picture of this transformation?”

Renault chief executive Luca de Meo also warned about the effect on jobs from new regulations on climate change and the electric shift at the FT’s car summit on Monday.

He said European regulations could cost up to 70,000 jobs in France as the rules, which impose stricter limits on carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions from petrol and diesel cars, vans, trucks and buses, could make vehicles more expensive and hit demand.

FT : Tiger Global hit by $17bn losses in tech rout

Tiger Global hit by $17bn losses in tech rout
Hedge fund suffers ‘breathtaking’ drop as speculative stocks sink from pandemic peaks

Tiger Global has been hit by losses of about $17bn during this year’s technology stock sell-off, marking one of the biggest dollar declines for a hedge fund in history.

The run of poor performance means the firm — one of the world’s biggest hedge funds and a big investor in high-growth, speculative companies whose shares have tumbled since their pandemic peaks — has in four months erased about two-thirds of its gains since its launch in 2001, according to calculations by LCH Investments.

“The magnitude of the loss is breathtaking, especially for a fund with ‘hedge’ in its name,” said Andrew Beer, managing member at investment firm Dynamic Beta. “This shows how even the most talented and plugged-in tech investors failed to see the train coming down the tracks.”

The losses were estimated by LCH, a fund of hedge funds run by the Edmond de Rothschild Group, which is an authority on dollar gains and losses made by hedge funds for their clients and which compiles an annual list of the world’s top money managers.

Tiger declined to comment. Investors who put money into the fund at launch have made more than 20 times their initial investment, said a person familiar with the fund.

Still, the losses eclipse some of the $4tn hedge fund industry’s biggest drops of recent years. These include the $12.1bn lost by investment group Bridgewater in 2020 during the market tumult caused by the coronavirus pandemic, or Melvin Capital’s loss of approximately $7bn during the GameStop retail trading frenzy at the start of last year.

New York-based Tiger, which recently managed about $90bn in assets, was founded 21 years ago by Chase Coleman, a so-called “Tiger cub” who worked at legendary investor Julian Robertson’s hedge fund Tiger Management.

Coleman’s fund has in the past made huge gains for investors, helped by punchy bets on tech stocks. By the start of 2021 he was ranked by LCH as the 14th best-performing hedge fund manager of all time, having made $10.4bn of gains, or a return of 48 per cent, for investors the previous year and a total of $26.5bn since launch.

But his fund has been badly knocked during the recent sell-off in speculative assets, as the Federal Reserve’s move to raise interest rates to curb inflation has damped the appeal of high-growth companies whose investment cases are often predicated on the promise of earnings far out into the future.

The fund lost 43.7 per cent in the first four months of this year, the Financial Times reported earlier this month, more than double the 21 per cent decline posted by Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite share gauge.

Tiger’s dollar losses, which are for its hedge fund rather than its private equity business, do not include the impact of a tech sell-off late last year, which left Tiger down 7 per cent for the whole of 2021.

>>> US Research Calls

Research Calls

  • Upgrades:
    • Autoliv (ALV) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt lowered to $90
    • Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $6
    • EOG Resources (EOG) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James; tgt $170
    • Genuine Parts (GPC) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt $133
    • Graphic Packaging (GPK) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $26
    • Healthcare Trust of America (HTA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Berenberg; tgt lowered to $34
    • LivePerson (LPSN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ROTH Capital; tgt $25
    • Maxar Technologies (MAXR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity; tgt lowered to $38
    • Prestige Consumer (PBH) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $70
    • Progressive (PGR) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies; tgt raised to $106
    • RingCentral (RNG) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer; tgt $100
    • Swedish Match (SWMAY) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan
    • Xenia Hotels (XHR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley Securities; tgt $22
  • Downgrades:
    • Affirm (AFRM) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Stephens; tgt lowered to $17
    • Altria (MO) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein; tgt lowered to $53
    • Atara Biotherapeutics (ATRA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $8
    • Boise Cascade (BCC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at The Benchmark Company
    • DBV Technologies (DBVT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $1.50
    • Edison (EIX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho; tgt lowered to $72
    • Essex Property (ESS) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $310
    • GoodRx (GDRX) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt lowered to $12
    • GoodRx (GDRX) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
    • GoodRx (GDRX) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at SVB Leerink; tgt lowered to $10
    • GoodRx (GDRX) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $8
    • Healthcare Realty (HR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg; tgt lowered to $32
    • Kaleyra (KLR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Craig Hallum; tgt lowered to $6.50
    • Methanex (MEOH) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $48
    • Palantir Technologies (PLTR) downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $6
    • Telus (TU) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt $26
    • Upstart (UPST) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $44
    • Upstart (UPST) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $50
    • Upstart (UPST) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Stephens; tgt lowered to $28
    • Viatris (VTRS) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt $10
  • Others:
    • Agree Realty (ADC) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $81
    • Athira Pharma (ATHA) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $33
    • Axon (AXON) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $169
    • Beazer Homes (BZH) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley Securities; tgt $23
    • California Resources Corp (CRC) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $60
    • Denbury (DEN) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $83
    • Ford Motor (F) initiated with a Hold at Berenberg; tgt $17
    • Getty Realty Corp. (GTY) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $32
    • General Motors (GM) initiated with a Buy at Berenberg; tgt $55
    • Global Net Lease (GNL) initiated with a Mkt Perform at JMP Securities
    • O'Reilly Auto (ORLY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $730
    • Roblox (RBLX) initiated with a Neutral at Wedbush; tgt $28
    • Satellogic (SATL) initiated with an Underweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $5
    • Spirit Realty Capital (SRC) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $54
    • Stellantis (STLA) initiated with a Buy at Berenberg
    • Tesla (TSLA) initiated with a Hold at Berenberg; tgt $900
    • Tyler Tech (TYL) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $408
    • W.P. Carey (WPC) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $87

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • UPST -53.6%, GDRX -40.7%, PTON -27.7%, BHC -27.1%, AVYA -27%, NVAX -24.4%, EYE -19.6%, CARG -15%, DBD -12.8%, XRAY -12.5%, GRPN -12.3%, DM -12.3%, PLUG -7.9%, DDD -7.6%, RCUS -7%, TDUP -6.1%, TASK -4%, IAC -3.6%, PRA -3.5%, YMAB -3.2%, MASS -3.2%, PLTK -3.1%, MAXR -2.9%, LMND -2.4%, MPLN -1.9%, NCMI -1.6%, SEAT -1.6%, REYN -1.4%, LCII -1.1%

Other news:

  • AFRM -14% (in sympathy with weak earnings report from UPST)
  • OVV -2.9% (increases dividend plans to double shareholder returns reports earnings)
  • KRUS -2.1% (CFO to retire)
  • INN -1.7% (files mixed securities shelf offering)

Analyst comments:

  • VTRS -1.9% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler)
  • MEOH -1.4% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler)
  • TU -0.9% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • VRM +33.3% (also CEO Paul Hennessy steps down; Tom Shortt appointed as CEO), SWAV +14.6%, CLOV +14.5% (also files for $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering), ITCI +11.6%, MESA +8.3%, FGEN +8.3%, AZEK +7%, UNVR +6.7%, BLDR +6.6%, XPO +6.3%, BLI +6.3%, LPSN +5.9%, CRNC +5.8%, AMC +5.6%, IGT +5.6%, HRTX +5.3%, FROG +5.3%, RNG +5% (also names new CFO), EVRI +5%, ROVR +4.8%, DFH +4.8%, FSK +4.7% (also increases distribution payout), IIVI +4.6%, BLUE +4.5%, ASX +4.4%, LI +4.3%, HI +4%, OPRT +3.8%, SONY +3.7%, SDC +3.3%, HL +3.1%, MGY +3%, HIMS +3%, MCHP +2.9% (also increases dividend), ALGM +2.8% (also CEO to retire), TREX +2.8%, AMWL +2.6%, IFF +2.6%, H +2.6%, MBUU +2.5%, MRC +2.3%, ARMK +2.3% (plans to separate uniform services into publicly traded company), NVEI +2.3%, CRSP +2%, TSM +2%, NXST +2%, PLNT +1.8%, BLNK +1.4%, SWX +1.4%, ZNGA +1.2%, SU +1%

Other news:

  • BHVN +70.3% (Biohaven Pharmaceutical and Pfizer (PFE) announce that the companies have entered into a definitive agreement under which Pfizer will acquire Biohaven)
  • NVVE +10.2% (NVVE and CENN announce alliance to offer electrification solution for commercial fleets)
  • SNCR +5.9% (signs multi-year agreement with Brightspeed)
  • VERV +4.9% (outlines its global development strategy for its lead gene editing candidate VERVE-101 and reported financial results for the first quarter ended March 31 2022)
  • CENN +4.7% (NVVE and CENN announce alliance to offer electrification solution for commercial fleets)
  • OTIS +3.7% (completes squeeze out provision to acquire remaining interest in Zardoya Otis)
  • SFIX +2.6% (D. E. Shaw increases passive stake to 5%)
  • CVNA +2.6% (announces the $2.2 bln acquisition of ADESA's U.S. physical auction business from KAR Global (KAR))
  • ARIS +2.3% (announces water mgmt agreement with Chevron USA)
  • ARMK +2.3% (plans to separate uniform services into publicly traded company)
  • MULN +1.9% (announces an update on Mullen's solid-state polymer battery testing with the Battery Innovation Center in Indiana)
  • MTCH +1.8% (MTCH sues GOOG over alleged unlawful billing mandates)
  • BRSP +1.6% (authorizes new $100 mln share repurchase program)
  • BIIB +1.5% (Biogen and Eisai complete rolling submission to the FDA for biologics license application of Lecanemab)
  • FSLY +1.1% (postpones Investor Day)

Analyst comments:

  • ALV +4.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS)
  • CLNE +3.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James)
  • PBH +3.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies)
  • GPK +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

  • Gapping up:
    • VRM +31.5%, CLOV +15.8%, SWAV +13%, LPSN +12%, CENN +9.5%, ASX +9.4%, BLUE +9.3%, FGEN +8.3%, BLDR +8.1%, MRC +7.7%, FROG +7.1%, UNVR +6.7%, RNG +6.3%, BLI +6.3%, SNCR +5.9%, LI +5.2%, HRTX +5%, EVRI +5%, ROVR +4.8%, AMWL +4%, HI +4%, XPO +3.8%, OTIS +3.7%, AMC +3.5%, MCHP +3.3%, SPG +3.2%, MGY +3%, MULN +2.8%, ALGM +2.8%, TREX +2.8%, MTCH +2.6%, MESA +2.6%, IFF +2.6%, BRSP +2.5%, BIIB +2.4%, HIMS +2.4%, HL +2.4%, ARIS +2.3%, CRSP +1.9%, TSM +1.9%, GOOG +1.7%, VVV +1.5%, TINV +1.3%, SDC +1.3%, SONY +1.3%, DHT +1.2%, OPRT +1%, FSK +1%
  • Gapping down:
    • UPST -48.5%, GDRX -40.1%, NVAX -20.7%, CARG -18.7%, GRPN -14.4%, AFRM -12.2%, DDD -8.1%, RCUS -7%, PLUG -5.7%, EYE -4.7%, IAC -3.6%, TASK -3.6%, PRA -3.5%, YMAB -3.2%, QSI -2.9%, XPER -2.9%, PUBM -2.6%, KRUS -2.1%, MPLN -1.9%, OVV -1.7%, INN -1.7%, NCMI -1.6%, MAXR -1.2%, ANGI -1.1%

FT : Could TV shows based on games be better than films?

Could TV shows based on games be better than films?
An underwhelming new Halo series may be a harbinger for the many adaptations in the pipeline — but there is hope

Longtime Halo protagonist Master Chief is a charmless hero. This is a character defined by limitless reserves of strength and gruffness, whose moniker is two tough-sounding titles grafted together (eventually he is given a real human name, which is — wait for it — John). Players have never even seen his face: the amber visor of his helmet stays resolutely closed.

Given that Halo is a game about blasting aliens with laser guns, this has never been a problem. Chief’s blankness allows players to project themselves more easily into his reinforced boots. Yet it was a hurdle for the new Halo TV adaptation on Paramount Plus. Games can have interesting characters and plots, but they don’t necessarily depend on them. Not so with television. Paramount, under the guidance of executive producer Steven Spielberg, needed to make changes.

First, they decided Chief had to show his face — a gormless Pablo Schreiber, much beefed-up from his days as “Pornstache” in the Netflix prison comedy-drama Orange is the New Black. Then they crunched 16 games’ worth of sci-fi pabulum into a semi-coherent narrative that pits humans against aliens and involves much wooden dialogue.

To the writing team’s credit, they do inject some moral ambiguity into the world by picking at threads only glancingly mentioned in the games (such as Master Chief’s origins as a child soldier, biologically enhanced in a lab at 14). They also cram in endless references to the games, including energy swords, first-person views from inside Chief’s helmet and aliens with invisibility camo. The overall result is distinctly mediocre TV, with entertaining fight scenes and effective, if predictable, plot twists, but little nuance or originality. It’s unlikely to appeal to anyone outside Halo’s gamer fan base. But with gamers numbering almost 3bn worldwide, that might be enough to make the show a success. A second season has already been greenlit.

Halo is just one of a host of games being turned into series as streaming platforms voraciously buy up valuable sci-fi and fantasy IPs, particularly those that bring substantial pre-existing audiences with younger demographics. On the way are lavish adaptations of zombie masterpiece The Last of Us for HBO, with Chernobyl writer Craig Mazin attached, as well as shows based on narrative games Life is Strange and Disco Elysium, coming to Amazon. Dozens more are in various stages of production, including fresh iterations of Resident Evil, Tomb Raider and Assassin’s Creed as well as Splinter Cell and Fallout.

We already know from decades of dreadful film adaptations that games can be tricky to adapt. Do they have a better chance on the small screen?

What film directors seem to miss when adapting games for cinema is that games do not revolve around stories we are told but worlds we inhabit. They need to ask what it means for this story to be watched rather than played, and how it might have to change accordingly. In that respect, TV may prove a more natural fit. The length of a series creates space for the sprawling storytelling style of games and their myriad characters. This breathing room should also allow showrunners to capitalise on the abundant lore and environmental detail of modern games, which assist in the trendy pursuit of “world-building”.

Two TV shows that offer hope for the form are both animations. The first is Castlevania, a vampire story based on a series of hit 1990s games, which has become a surprise hit on Netflix since launching in 2017. It is sharply written with mature themes and thoughtful plotting and paved the way for last year’s Arcane. Another Netflix show, Arcane digs into the origin stories of two heroes from the online battle arena game League of Legends using striking animation that blends hand-painted textures with 3D graphics. Unlike other adaptations, Arcane forgoes fussy plot exposition in favour of character-driven drama and plays loosely with its source material, focusing on the complex relationship between two women and including action only where it meaningfully impacts the narrative.

Both have charmed audiences far beyond the world of gamers. Arcane has even earned a place in IMDB’s list of the highest-rated 25 TV shows of all time, in the company of The Wire, Breaking Bad and Ken Burns’s docu-series The Vietnam War. It is the first truly great gaming adaptation but, judging by the sheer quantity of series to come, it is unlikely to be the last.

FT : El Bagholder strikes again

El Bagholder strikes again
El Salvador’s president is frittering more of his country’s money away

We all complain about politicians. But spare a thought for the people of El Salvador, whose laser-eyed crypto bro president is day-trading an already troubled country into even deeper penury.

Here is Nayib Bukele’s latest. A reminder, this is the president of one of the world’s poorest countries, not a spotty Reddit trader who took shrooms while watching Michael Saylor videos and decided to embrace the “cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom”.

The story of El Salvador’s pivot to bitcoin has been well told many times before — car crashes always attract rubbernecking, and it’s not often you can see the accident before it happens — but we were curious over how bad its P&L was now.

Having spent a few unhappy hours trawling through Bukele’s Twitter account, we think we’ve found all the official purchases, for a total of 2,280 bitcoin since the first announced 200 on September 6 2021, the day before bitcoin officially became legal tender in El Salvador. A day later, “El Hodlador” said he had already bought another 200.

In some cases Bukele announced the average purchase price. In the others FT Alphaville simply took the price on the day of announcement as a reasonable proxy for the cost. Bitcoin purchases totaling 150 coins were not announced on Twitter, but just announced as part of El Salvador’s stash. And obviously we don’t know what the country actually holds itself at the moment, and how much might have “leaked”.

But taking the announcements at face value, and with the mentioned assumptions, We found that El Salvador has spent about $101.5mn on its 2,280 bitcoin. Despite Bukele comically bragging about already turning a profit on yesterday’s purchases, its crypto trove is at pixel time worth $72.6mn

A country with GDP per capita of $3,799, reserves of under $4bn (only equivalent to three months of imports, typically seen as a danger level) and government debts of over $13bn (about 85 per cent of GDP) has lost about $28.9mn on its crypto punts over the past half year.

Here’s a chart showing the grim trajectory of the world’s first sovereign bitcoin bagholder.

Of course, bitcoin bros will shout that the bitcoin acquired by El Salvador will prove a bargain when the cryptocurrency eclipses gold and even the US dollar. It seems that Bukele remains popular domestically, though mostly thanks for taming violence. (That already seems to be reversing after a truce between gangs and the government unravelled).

The IMF has already made its views clear. The market’s view of El Salvador’s bitcoin huffing is also pretty unequivocal: A country that was probably bankrupt is now almost certainly bankrupt.

El Salvador’s mooted “bitcoin bond” looks DOA. But here is the price of its $800mn bond that comes due next January. Despite maturing in less than a year, it’s trading at 76.9 cents on the dollar. That makes for a yield of over 50 per cent.

UPDATE: We were planning to also highlight the timely work of our colleague Ethan Wu over on Unhedged, but the tragicomedy of the situation distracted us.

In today’s Unhedged, Ethan explored an interesting paper on El Salvador’s bitcoin experiment, and the results have been predictably underwhelming.

The typical Chivo user was a young, high school-educated man with access to the internet and the formal financial system — undermining Bukele’s claims the tech would boost financial inclusion. The most common reason for using Chivo was cashing out the $30 bonus; 61 per cent of users abandoned the app immediately after.

Even among Chivo users who did take remittances, most did so in dollars, not bitcoin. Likewise, some businesses, about 20 per cent, do accept bitcoin. But these are mostly bigger firms, and nearly all convert to dollars immediately after making bitcoin sales.