TechCrunch : Here are the 5 finalists of Startup Battlefield at Disrupt 2022

Here are the 5 finalists of Startup Battlefield at Disrupt 2022

During the last two days, 20 startups pitched their companies as part of TechCrunch’s Startup Battlefield at Disrupt 2022. These 20 companies were selected as the best of the brand-new Startup Battlefield 200 and competed for a chance to take home Battlefield Cup and $100,000.
TechCrunch editors and expert judges winnowed them down to the following five finalists who will be presenting in front of a whole new panel of judges on the last day of Disrupt, October 20, 2022:
Advanced Ionics
Advanced Ionics is striving to drive down the price of green hydrogen by slashing how much electricity is needed for electrolysis by as much as 50%. That’s an admirable goal, because despite all the talk of hydrogen as a “fuel of the future,” the industry is still filthy for the most part — driving climate chaos via pollution-spewing production methods. Most of the hydrogen gas that humans produce is “grey“; a classification that means the producers rely on methane (or worse, burning coal) to isolate the element for use in fertilizer and as fuel. But as awareness of climate change and interest in hydrogen-powered freight grows, so too has demand for an environmentally friendlier alternative. In contrast to the grey stuff, “green” hydrogen taps renewable energy and electrolysis to separate water into hydrogen and oxygen. It’s a superior production method as far as the climate is concerned, but it is also costly because it demands a ton of clean energy.

AppMap
Boston-based AppMap wants to stop bad code from ever making it into production. The open source dynamic runtime code analysis tool, which the startup claims is the first of its kind, was built on the simple idea that developers should be able to see the behavior of software as they write it so they can prevent problems when the software runs. Unlike static analysis tools that don’t show runtime information, AppMap — which was built from the ground up over a three-year period — runs within the code editor to show developers which components are communicating with which components, at what throughput and latency, at what network speed and whether there are any errors between them, enabling developers to get actionable insights and make improvements quicker than before.

Intropic Materials
Plastics are great for so many things, but they stay around for an awfully long time. Intropic leaps to the rescue with a set of enzymes that can be added to plastics at the very beginning of their life cycle, before it is even turned into products. The additives the company makes have been proof-of-concept tested and it wants to upend how plastics are made and disposed of. Intropic’s additives make many of the most commonly used plastics biodegradable in normal commercial composting. The enzymes are added to the pellets or powders that are used in the normal course of plastic production. This gives plastics new, biodegradable capabilities without changing the manufacturing processes used to create plastic products. At the end of the lifecycle, when it’s time to get rid of the material, the products can be composted into their component parts.

Minerva Lithium
Minerva Lithium has produced Nano Mosaic, a coordinated polymer framework that looks a bit like black gravel and extracts critical materials from brine in just three days. Minerva says that it can extract one metric ton of lithium using just 30,000 gallons of water, and it can do it in three days. Evaporative brine processing needs to evaporate 500,000 gallons of water to get to the same amount of lithium. Just one gram of this absorbent material has a surface area equal to that of a soccer pitch, which should give you an idea of just how little you’d need to extract a large amount of minerals.

Swap Robotics
Swap Robotics manufactures electric grass-cutting and snow removal robots and detailed onstage how it’s making sustainable outdoor work equipment. For the next few years, 95% of the startup’s focus will be on facilitating robots that cut grass and vegetation on 1,000+ acre utility-scale solar farms. The company’s secondary focus is sidewalk snow plowing. The team decided it would be their missiona to create a solution that could sustainably cut grass in a controlled environment. Swap Robotics was aware that solar vegetation cutting comes with its challenges, as it requires a unique type of cutting deck that is able to get underneath solar panels, and recognized that a robotic solution could address the problem.

FT : Misadventures in bondland

Misadventures in bondland
Active investing is HARD guys

Bill Gross’s typically acerbic views on the lack of returns from Total Return bond funds like the one he used to manage at Pimco got us thinking about one one-time rival of the “Bond King”: Michael Hasenstab.

Franklin Templeton’s Hasenstab made his name through massive (and we mean massive) bets on struggling counties like Ireland, Hungary, Ukraine, Argentina and Ghana, utterly eschewing the confines of indices or traditional bond fund styles. As he wrote in the FT back in 2014:

 . . . while equity investors have long recognized the need to go global and add to returns and better diversity risks, fixed income investors are still at the initial stages of internationalizing their portfolios. So while there is much talk about “the great rotation” from fixed income to equity or vice-versa, we actually think the more interesting rotation is from traditional core fixed income to unconstrained global. This is especially true since the ability to generate positive returns in core fixed income markets is pretty limited given historically low rates.

Some of these wagers worked out (he made a killing in Ireland and Hungary, and managed to eke out a profit from Ukraine despite the 2014 invasion), and others did not (Argentina turned out to be a nightmare).

But what really hurt him in recent years — and deflated the size of his Global Bond Fund from a peak of $73bn less than a decade ago to just $5.8bn today — was a mammoth bet against US Treasuries, and developed market bonds in general.

For a few years, the Templeton Global Bond Fund even had negative duration — in practice, it would make money if interest rates went up. Instead, the bond market kept humming, and Hasenstab’s flagship fund wilted. Here you can see how TPINX’s net asset value has waxed and waned over Hasenstab’s two-decade reign


You’d think a sour view of developed bond markets would have served him well in 2022, with duration clobbered by rising interest rates. Finally, years after saying investors should flee the illusory safety of high-grade sovereign debt, Hasenstab should be vindicated? Right?

Unfortunately, the market gods are cruel.

Because of the long string of bad results, Hasenstab in 2020 closed out his Treasury short, and last year committed to keeping the Templeton Global Bond Fund’s duration at least in positive territory. Whoops.

At pixel time, Morningstar says the fund’s effective duration is 1.79 years, so it still exceptionally low compared to most of its peers. As the Morningstar snapshot below shows, this has kept the fund’s losses a little contained at 14.2 per cent so far in 2022, compared to the 18.7 per cent average loss of similar bond funds, and a savage 22 per cent drawdown for their benchmark.

But lets face it, merely losing 14 per cent isn’t exactly great either.


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This is not to cast shade on Hasenstab, who is one of the more cerebral and genuinely thought-provoking bond fund managers this FTAV writer has met.

But this shows once again — if anyone needed reminding — just how hard it is to run money. Often you can even get the basic thesis right, and still lose money by being too early (or tarnish an entire career if you’re far too early) And given how fickle markets are, you just know that as soon as you’re forced to close down a position, it’s going to come good right afterwards.

On the plus side, there’s a ton of the kind of turbulent sovereign debt market that first made Hasenstab’s name over a decade ago emerging again right now. And if the dollar’s strength fades, then TPINX’s big bets on local-currency debt in Asia and parts of Latin America could do well.

Hasenstab and his co-manager Calvin Ho wrote earlier this month that these have been “battle tested” in previous crises, and are in much better shape than the developed world.

Many emerging markets have periodically dealt with high or double digit inflation, sharply rising interest rates and falling exchange rates over the past few decades. Emerging markets that have suffered through the various crises have often learned from the pain of the past, leading them to a path where their corporations can manage foreign exchange denominated debt, governments can manage fiscal policy and central banks can manage monetary policy appropriately, allowing them to weather such developments in a relatively sanguine way. In fact, some emerging markets were so proactive with monetary policy tightening when inflation pressures began building last year that they are already at or near the end of those cycles. By contrast, developed countries have enjoyed a long period of stability with low inflation, until the past year. In general, they haven’t seen any significant inflation since the 1970s or early 1980s, and navigating policy around these rates and their effect on expectations is proving tricky.

We will see.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 20th of October 2022 V2(+)

>>> Up
* ASML Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 550 euros
* ASML ADRs Raised to Buy at Fubon; PT $500
* Atlas Copco Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 130 kronor
* Axactor ASA Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 7.20 kroner
* Bellway Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 2,167 pence
* Brunello Cucinelli Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 62 euros
* Getinge Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 260 kronor
* Kinnevik Raised to Hold at Nordea
* Moneysupermarket Raised to Buy at Liberum; PT 215 pence (+)
* Oracle Raised to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $70
* Royal Unibrew Raised to Buy at Handelsbanken
* Saipem Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 1 euro
* Stratec Raised to Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 97 euros (+)

>>> Down
* Antofagasta Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 1,125 pence
* Atlantic Sapphire ASA Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 6 kroner
* Auto Trader PT Cut to 418 pence from 498 pence at Credit Suisse (+)
* Bechtle Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 51 euros
* Berkeley Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 3,807 pence
* Calliditas Therapeutics Cut to Hold at SEB Equities (+)
* Eutelsat Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader
* Fluidra Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 13.85 euros
* MotorK Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 2.70 euros
* Royal Unibrew Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 400 kroner

>>> Initiation
* Believe Rated New Buy at Redburn (+)
* Bilfinger Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 38 euros
* Desert Control Rated New Buy at Fearnley; PT 39 kroner (+)
* Jenoptik Rated New Outperform at Exane; PT 27 euros
* Lululemon Rated New Market Perform at CICC; PT $320.87
* Mapfre Rated New Hold at Berenberg

>>> Call
* ABB Posts Strong Orders, Citi Sees Guidance Boosting Consensus (+)
* Antofagasta Cut to Hold at Peel Amid Operating and Tax Headwinds (+)
* Axfood Profit Beats Estimates; Cuts Valuation of Mathem
* Brunello Cucinelli Raised at Jefferies Following Guidance Uplift
* Credit Suisse 2022 Loss Estimate Raised to CHF2.9b at Oddo (+)
* Goldman Says Emerging Equities Ripe for More Earnings Downgrades
* Mapfre New Hold at Berenberg, Exposed to Inflationary Trends
* Pernod Ricard Shares to React Positively to 1Q Sales Beat: MS (+)
* Saipem Raised to Buy at Jefferies After $4.5b Contract Win (+)
* Schindler Posts ‘Relatively Solid Performance’, Says Citi (+)
* Verallia Surprises Positively on Revenue Growth, Jefferies Says
* Volvo 3Q Ebit Miss in Focus, Market Guidance Positive: RBC (+)
* Zur Rose Cut at Jefferies on Likely More E-Prescription Delays

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Swedish Match (SWMC TH) +2.6%
    • Philip Morris Boosts Offer for Swedish Match to $15.8 Billion
  • Nordea Bank (04Q TH) +2%
    • Nordea Bank 3Q Net Interest Income Beats Estimates
  • Bechtle (BC8 TH) +1.9%
    • Bechtle Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 51 euros
  • Italgas (I10 TH) +1.6%
  • Stora Enso (ENUR TH) +1.4%
  • Rio Tinto (RIO1 TH) +1.2%
  • Imperial Brands (ITB TH) +1.2%
  • Deutsche Boerse (DB1 TH) +1.2%
  • Equinor (DNQ TH) +0.8%
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) +0.4%
  • Daimler Truck (DTG TH) -0.8%
  • Wacker Chemie (WCH TH) -1.1%
  • Continental (CON TH) -1.2%
  • Oxford Nanopore (4R0 TH) -2.1%
  • BE Semiconductor (BSI TH) -2.5%
    • BE Semiconductor 3Q Gross Margin Beats Estimates
  • Norsk Hydro (NOH1 TH) -2.7%
  • Ericsson (ERCB TH) -4.2%
    • Ericsson 3Q Adjusted Operating Profit Misses Estimates
  • Nokia (NOA3 TH) -5.2%
    • Nokia 3Q Net Sales Beats Estimates
  • Nel (D7G TH) -5.2%
    • Nel 3Q Operating Loss NOK260M, Est. Loss NOK209.3M
  • Akzo Nobel (AKU1 TH) -5.3%
    • Akzo Suspends 2023 Earnings Target Over Economic Headwinds

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Deutsche Boerse (DB1 TH) +1.7%
    • Deutsche Boerse Boosts FY Net Revenue Forecast
  • Fresenius SE (FRE TH) +0.9%
  • BASF (BAS TH) -0.6%
  • Daimler Truck (DTG TH) -0.8%
MDAX:
  • Bechtle (BC8 TH) +2.4%
    • Bechtle Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 51 euros
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) -0.8%
  • TeamViewer (TMV TH) -0.8%
SDAX:
  • Bilfinger (GBF TH) +1.1%
    • Bilfinger Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 38 euros
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +1%
  • About You (YOU TH) -0.9%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 20th of October 2022

>>> Up
* ASML Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 550 euros
* ASML ADRs Raised to Buy at Fubon; PT $500
* Atlas Copco Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 130 kronor
* Axactor ASA Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 7.20 kroner
* Bellway Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 2,167 pence
* Brunello Cucinelli Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 62 euros
* Getinge Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 260 kronor
* Kinnevik Raised to Hold at Nordea
* Oracle Raised to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $70
* Royal Unibrew Raised to Buy at Handelsbanken
* Saipem Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 1 euro

>>> Down
* Antofagasta Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 1,125 pence
* Atlantic Sapphire ASA Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 6 kroner
* Bechtle Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 51 euros
* Berkeley Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 3,807 pence
* Eutelsat Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader
* Fluidra Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 13.85 euros
* MotorK Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 2.70 euros
* Royal Unibrew Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 400 kroner

>>> Initiation
* Bilfinger Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 38 euros
* Jenoptik Rated New Outperform at Exane; PT 27 euros
* Lululemon Rated New Market Perform at CICC; PT $320.87
* Mapfre Rated New Hold at Berenberg

>>> Call
* Axfood Profit Beats Estimates; Cuts Valuation of Mathem
* Brunello Cucinelli Raised at Jefferies Following Guidance Uplift
* Goldman Says Emerging Equities Ripe for More Earnings Downgrades
* Mapfre New Hold at Berenberg, Exposed to Inflationary Trends
* Verallia Surprises Positively on Revenue Growth, Jefferies Says
* Zur Rose Cut at Jefferies on Likely More E-Prescription Delays

>>> What to look at today - 20th of October 2022

Stocks slumped in Asia and bond yields spiked higher amid concern that strong inflation and hawkish monetary policy will further slow the global economy. Shares dropped in Japan, Australia and China, with Hong Kong’s equity benchmark headed for the lowest close since 2009.  Fears over slowing growth and rising Covid cases in China are adding to worries of investors amid the twice-a-decade party congress in Beijing. The offshore yuan traded around a fresh record low while an index of US-listed Chinese companies slumped more than 7% on Wednesday to the lowest in nine years. Meanwhile in Japan, the 10-year yield again pushed above the 0.25% upper limit of the central bank’s target range, triggering it to announce unscheduled bond purchases to rein it back in. Adding to the challenge for policy makers, the yen traded at levels last seen in 1990 and remained within a whisker of the key mark of 150 versus the greenback. This has traders on guard for potential government intervention to shore up the currency. Government bond yields jumped more than 10 basis points in Australia and New Zealand, as US Treasury yields held near recent highs. The policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield was near the highest since 2007.  This in turn was supporting the dollar, which was higher against its major counterparts and emerging-market currencies in Asia.  The Philippine peso dropped to a record low against the greenback while in South Korea credit strains prompted authorities to revive a $1.1 billion bond stabilization fund. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its Nov. 1-2 meeting -- its fourth straight increase of that size -- as central bankers seek to cool the hottest inflation in four decades.  US equity futures fell in Asia after stocks on Wednesday halted a back-to-back rally, making any calls for a bottom look elusive. Not even bright earnings spots like Netflix Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc. were able to enthuse investors about more gains in the S&P 500. A late day rout in Tesla Inc. on disappointing sales could further weigh on sentiment. oil held gains as the market shrugged off measures from US President Joe Biden to tame rising energy prices that have fueled inflation. Gold dipped to hold at a three-week low. US After Hours IBM +3% higher on earnings; AA -7.7%, WDFC -5.7%, TSLA -3.7% lower on earnings; ALL -9.3% on Q3 catastrophe losses.

Nikkei -1,16% Hang Seng -2,42% CSI-0,71% Shanghai -0,39% Shenzen -0,44%

Eur$ 0,9776 CNH 7,2345 CNY 7,2254 JPY 149,92 GBP 1,1220 CHF 1,0050 RUB 61,3807 TRY 18,5891 WTI$ 86,20 +0,80% Gold 1,623,80 +2% BTC 19,175 ETH 1,290

S&P -0,10% Nasdaq -0,44% EuroStoxx -0,21% FTSE -0,05% Dax -0,24% SMI

Macro :
- UK Treasury to Transfer £11 Billion to BOE to Cover QE Losses
- Goldman Says Emerging Equities Ripe for More Earnings Downgrades

Keep an eye on :
- ABBN SW : ABB 3Q Operating Ebita Beats Estimates
- AKZA NA : Akzo Nobel 3Q Adjusted Operating Income Misses Estimates
- AA US : Alcoa Drops 10% Postmarket on Ebitda Miss: Snapshot
- ALLFG NA : Allfunds Assets Under Administration EU1.29T
- ALMA FH : Alma Media 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- AOX GY : Alstria Office Prelim 9M FFO I About EU86M
- ATEA NO : Atea 3Q Ebit Misses Estimates
- ADX SM : Audax Seeks Bondholder Waiver for Corporate Deal: Confidencial
- BARN SW : Barry Callebaut’s Wieze Chocolate Plant Back to Normal Capacity
- BESI NA : BE Semiconductor 3Q Gross Margin Beats Estimates
- BOL SS : Boliden 3Q Adjusted Operating Profit Misses Estimates
- CNE LN : Capricorn Energy Holder Irenic Urges Board to Drop NewMed Deal
- COTN SW : Comet 3Q Net Sales CHF164.8M
- DB1 GY : Deutsche Boerse Boosts FY Net Revenue Forecast
- DNB NO : DNB Bank 3Q Net Income Misses Estimates
- EDEN FP : Edenred Boosts FY Ebitda Forecast, Beats Estimates
- ELUXB SS : Electrolux, Whirlpool, SEB Tested by Waning Appliances Demand
- EQT SS : EQT, Tillman lining up rival bids for Brookfield’s stake in French towers firm TDF, sources say
- ERICB SS : Ericsson 3Q Adjusted Operating Profit Misses Estimates
- FABG SS : Fabege 9M Rental Income SEK2.25B Vs. SEK2.14B Y/y
- FNAC FP : Fnac Darty 3Q Like-for-Like Sales -1.3%
- GAM SW : GAM Holding Investment MGMT AUM CHF24.2B
- GET FP : Getlink 3Q Revenue EU466.1M Vs. EU223.1M Y/y
- GRNG SS : Granges 3Q Adjusted Operating Profit Meets Estimates
- RMS FP : Hermes 3Q Sales at Constant Exchange Rates Beats Estimates
- HOLMB SS : Holmen 3Q Adjusted Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- IFCN SW : Inficon 3Q Sales $143.8M Vs. $122.2M Y/y
- LI FP : Klepierre 9M Revenue EU1.10B Vs. EU942.7M Y/y
- META US : Meta Executive Behind Instagram, WhatsApp Acquisitions Leaves
- MPCC NO : MPC Container Ships Offering of 44.3m Shares by Holder Prices
- NEL NO : Nel 3Q Operating Loss NOK260M, Est. Loss NOK209.3M
- NOKIA FH : Nokia 3Q Net Sales Beats Ests.; Adj. Oper Profit Misses
- NDA SS : Nordea Bank 3Q Net Interest Income Beats Estimates
- NDA SS : Nordea Posts Higher Lending Income, Improved Cost Outlook (1)
- NOD NO : Nordic Semiconductor 3Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- RI FP : Pernod Ricard 1Q Organic Sales Beats Estimates, Plans €500M to €750M Buyback This Year
- SPM IM : Saipem Awarded Contract by Qatargas Worth $4.5b
- DIM FP : Sartorius Stedim Biotech Cut to Sell at Intron Health
- SCHP SW : Schindler Narrows FY Revenue Forecast
- SIP BB : Sipef 9M Palm Oil Output 302,322 Metric Tons Vs. 291,668 Y/y
- SLIGR NA : Sligro 3Q Sales EU652M Vs. EU556M Y/y
- SO FP : Somfy 3Q Sales EU361M Vs. EU348M Y/y
- SWMA SS : Philip Morris Increases Offer for Swedish Match to SEK116/shr
- TE FP : Technip Energies 9M Adjusted Revenue Beats Estimates
- TEL2B SS : Tele2 3Q Adjusted Ebitda SEK2.97B
- TEL NO : Telenor Grameenphone 3Q Operating Profit Rises to NOK1.78B
- TEL NO : Telenor Digi 3Q Operating Profit NOK944M vs NOK993M Year Earlier
- TSLA US : Musk Says Tesla Is Likely to Do a Meaningful Share Buyback
- TIETO FH : TietoEVRY Prelim 3Q Adjusted Operating Margin 14.2%
- TWTR US : Elon Musk Says He’s ‘Obviously Overpaying’ for Twitter
- UCG IM : UniCredit Selling Bad Loan Portfolio of About €1.5b: MF
- VRLA FP : Verallia Sees FY Adj Ebitda Above EU820M, Saw EU750M to EU800M
- VOLVB SS : *VOLVO 3Q ADJ. OPER PROFIT SEK11.87B, EST. SEK11.99B
- ROSE SW : Zur Rose Narrows FY Adjusted Ebitda Loss Forecast

Le Figaro : Le gouvernement occulte la gravité du choc extérieur

Le gouvernement occulte la gravité du choc extérieur subi par la France

DÉCRYPTAGE - L'économie française doit supporter une surcharge d'environ 100 milliards d'euros sur sa facture d'énergie et de matières premières, ce qui paradoxalement n'apparaît pas dans les chiffres de la croissance en 2022 et 2023.

La France est-elle réellement confrontée à une crise économique alors que son PIB devrait-avoir progressé de 2,7% en 2022 -à ce stade de l'année, c'est pratiquement acquis- et à nouveau de 1% en 2023 ? Bien sûr l'inflation des prix à la consommation - 5,6% sur les douze derniers mois – est un problème qui menace le pouvoir d'achat de tous ceux dont les revenus ne progressent pas à ce rythme, soit la quasi-totalité des gens, mais l'activité économique continue de progresser. N'est-ce pas l'essentiel, tant que cela dure ?

Tel est le projet général rassurant que le gouvernement cherche à accréditer sans toutefois parvenir à convaincre. La raison en est que ce scénario présente une très grosse lacune. Alors que dans les débats publics on ne parle que de hausses du pétrole et du gaz importés, le formidable choc énergétique et alimentaire auquel doit faire face le pays n'apparaît nullement dans les chiffrages macro-économiques du gouvernement. Paradoxal mais vrai : le rapport économique social et financier 2023 établi par le ministre de l'Économie et des Finances, censé synthétiser la stratégie économique du pays en 2022 et en 2023, est totalement déficient à cet égard. La seule indication d'un choc extérieur figure incidemment dans un tableau annexe concernant les comptes extérieurs : on y apprend que le solde extérieur «énergie» qui était déficitaire de 44 milliards d'euros en 2021 aura été négatif de 106 milliards cette année , et que le déficit devrait légèrement refluer à 103 milliards en 2023. Il n'est même pas fait état des différentes sources d'énergies que recouvrent ces chiffres et moins encore du renchérissement des autres matières premières.

Crise de l'énergie : «Quand les prix s'emballent, les États doivent intervenir», déclare Bruno Le Maire : http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/crise-de-l-energie-quand-les-prix-s-emballent-les-etats-doivent-intervenir-declare-bruno-le-maire-20221019

C'est regrettable, car ces chocs extérieurs sont au cœur de tous les défis économiques actuels, lesquels ne sauraient se résumer à la seule analyse du sacro-saint PIB. Ces trois lettres, P, I, B, sont d'ailleurs tellement rabâchées qu'on ne prend même plus la peine d' en donner le sens. Le Produit intérieur brut, faut-il le rappeler, mesure tout ce qui est produit sur le territoire national, autrement dit, c'est la somme de toutes les valeurs ajoutées réalisées en France par l'ensemble des acteurs quels qu'ils soient (entreprises, travailleurs indépendants, professions libérales, administrations, etc). Il est d'usage de présenter l'évolution en PIB en volume (hors inflation ), même s'il n'est pas inutile d'en rappeler la valeur nominale, 2501 milliards d'euros en 2021 et 2642 milliards en 2022 selon les estimations de Bercy.

À VOIR AUSSI - 49.3 utilisé par Élisabeth Borne: le RN déposera sa motion de censure jeudi, selon Jean-Philippe Tanguy

«Dégradation des termes de l'échange»

Or la présentation en termes de PIB, pour être pertinente en soi, occulte complètement un phénomène aujourd'hui essentiel, ce que les économistes appellent de façon un peu technique «la dégradation des termes de l'échange». Plus simplement, il s'agit de comparer les prix des importations de la Maison France et de ses entreprises (pétrole, gaz, entre autres) qui augmentent très fortement, alors que simultanément les prix de nos exportations progressent peu ou pas du tout. Il en résulte un appauvrissement manifeste pour la France dans sa totalité que ne mesure nullement son PIB.

Trois économistes de l'Insee, Victor Amoureux, Nicolas Carnot et Thomas Laurent, proposent donc de calculer un « revenu intérieur réel » de façon à « mesurer le pouvoir d'achat de la nation ». Dans leur étude publiée sur le blog de l'Insee, le trio explique que la différence entre PIB et « revenu intérieur réel » est la conséquence de l'évolution des « termes de l'échange » . Ils rappellent qu'en 1974 - première année du choc pétrolier- le PIB avait augmenté de 4,3% (la France restait alors sur sa lancée de forte croissance des « trente glorieuses »), alors que le « revenu intérieur réel », n'avait progressé que de 1,5%. En 1975 ce fut l'inverse, le PIB se contracta de 1% (l'économie était en récession), alors que « le revenu intérieur réel » fut quasi –stable (les termes de l'échanges s'étaient un peu améliorés en notre faveur).

L'inflation ralentit en septembre à 5,6%, selon les données provisoires de l'Insee : http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/l-inflation-ralentit-en-septembre-a-5-6-selon-une-estimation-provisoire-20220930

« Sans atteindre ces niveaux (de 1974), les termes de l'échange se dégradent aussi nettement en 2022 » notent les trois économistes de l'Insee qui n'avancent pas d'évaluation chiffrée du phénomène actuel : leur objet est de fournir une méthode nouvelle et non pas d'analyser la conjoncture présente.

Quelle est l'ampleur du choc extérieur en 2022 et donc l'appauvrissement de la « Maison France » ? Il dépasse en tout cas la simple dégradation de la facture énergétique stricto sensu que Bercy évalue à 62 milliards d'euros (l'équivalent de 2, 5% du PIB). Pour sa part, Denis Ferrand, le directeur général de l'institut de conjoncture Rexecode a calculé la ponction que représentent les hausses de prix de tous les produits bruts énergétiques, industriels et alimentaires, consommés en France ; il parvient à une somme équivalente à 4% du PIB , une centaine de milliards d'euros, qu'il compare à une ponction 5% du PIB au moment du premier choc pétrolier de 1974-75 et de 4% pour le deuxième de 1979-80.

La notion de « revenu intérieur réel de la nation » -autrement dit son pouvoir d'achat – ne vise pas à remplacer le PIB mais à le compléter soulignent les experts de l'Insee. La production et le revenu sont en effet deux choses différentes. Le PIB –la production globale - a peut-être augmenté de 2,7% en 2022, mais il a fallu payer beaucoup plus cher les importations nécessaires à la réalisation de ce PIB, et pour cette raison « le revenu intérieur réel du pays », a été amputé d'autant. De l'ordre de 4% du PIB l'on en croit les calculs de Rexecode.

À VOIR AUSSI - 49.3 utilisé par Élisabeth Borne: «Inutile de rajouter du chaos au chaos» en votant une motion de censure, selon Olivier Marleix

Des problématiques identiques

Ce qui se passe au niveau de la nation ne devrait pas surprendre les Français tellement préoccupés par leur pouvoir d'achat individuel mangé par l'inflation. Les problématiques sont fondamentalement identiques au niveau des personnes et à l'échelle de la nation. Dans un cas comme dans l'autre l'écart entre production et revenu est comblé par des déficits. Celui de l'État subventionne le renchérissement des consommations d'énergie des Français…. en espérant que les entreprises prennent le relais en augmentant les salaires. Mais ces dernières sont confrontées pour la plupart à une augmentation de leurs coûts et à la pression de la concurrence ce qui réduit leur marge de manœuvre !

Au niveau de la nation , c'est le déficit extérieur qui vient compenser sinon financer la baisse du revenu réel. Faute pour les entreprises françaises d'augmenter leurs prix à l'exportation , ce qui permettrait en effet de rééquilibrer les termes de l'échange. C'est hélas plus facile à dire qu'à faire : confrontée à l'inflation de ses coûts, une entreprise peut difficilement faire jouer un « mécanisme d'échelle mobile » comme les salariés le souhaiteraient pour eux-mêmes!

Il est en tout cas dommage que le Ministère de l'Économie et des Finances n'ait pas développé ce problème essentiel du « revenu intérieur réel de la nation » mis à mal par les chocs extérieurs. Un tel exercice élémentaire de pédagogie lui aurait-il permis de justifier sa stratégie économique et d'éviter ainsi « le passage en force du 49.3 » pour faire admettre son projet de budget 2023 ?

(ZH) Regulation Is Coming And Bitcoin Will Benefit

Regulation Is Coming And Bitcoin Will Benefit

CFTC and SEC regulation for bitcoin is inevitable. While some people are against it, regulatory clarity will help bitcoin adoption and boost the price...

The continued discussion about the need for a comprehensive U.S. regulatory framework to identify opportunities and risks within the rapidly growing Bitcoin sector has caught the attention of the wider public.
Rostin Behnam, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said recently that proper regulation of the cryptocurrency space could have significant positive effects on market growth, particularly for bitcoin.
“Growth might occur if we have a well-regulated space,” Behnam said during his appearance at New York University School of Law.
Behnam also said, “Bitcoin might double in price if there’s a CFTC-regulated market,” which made headlines around the globe. His comments aren’t surprising given that he has emphasized the need for regulatory clarity in the Bitcoin market several times before.

THE CFTC AND SEC MUST WORK TOGETHER
Earlier this year, representatives of the Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees the CFTC, proposed a new bill that would make the CFTC the primary regulator of the digital assets industry and strengthen its control over cryptocurrency spot markets. The bill would also require trading companies to register with the CFTC. Behnam voiced his support for the bipartisan bill, which would also allow the CFTC to charge fees on regulatory entities and reinforce its financial power.
“We are [currently] appropriated money by Congress, and it has put us in a position where we feel like we’re constantly on edge about how much money we will be appropriated,” Behnam added during the NYU School of Law event. “We are still feeling the wounds and scars from about five or six years of flat funding.”
Behnam added that its modest financial budget and other headwinds have also prevented the agency from putting up a proper fight against crime involving bitcoin and other digital assets. Because the CFTC has no jurisdiction, the agency lacks traditional surveillance services and market oversight solutions to appropriately oversee trading platforms and other intermediaries, Behnam further noted.
These remarks come roughly a month after the former CFTC chairman, Timothy Massad, called for the CFTC and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to come together and address the current crypto regulatory gaps by establishing a self-regulatory organization (SRO).
Massad argued that neither CFTC nor the SEC has the necessary power to regulate bitcoin and other digital assets. At the moment, there is a significant gap when it comes to regulating what he called “the cash market for crypto assets.” This includes bitcoin trading activities on exchanges like Coinbase or Kraken. While the U.S. Congress has attempted to address this issue through several bills, Massad believes that the solution lies in an SRO.
Earlier this month, SEC Chair Gary Gensler said that he supports the idea of handing the CFTC the role of top non-securities cryptocurrency regulator, though Congress shouldn’t overlook the SEC if that happens. He stressed that it’s important to make sure that securities laws regulating the $100 trillion capital markets must not be undermined as these laws have made capital markets the envy of the world.
At the moment, the CFTC is responsible only for regulating cryptocurrency derivatives, though many in Washington and the bitcoin-centered industry seem to support the idea of handing the reins of cryptocurrency regulation to the agency.

WHO WILL BENEFIT FROM REGULATION?
The idea that a well-established regulatory framework could lure more institutional investors and boost bitcoin market adoption is a stance prompted by many within the industry. Behnam also argued that digital asset firms see significant potential “for institutional inflows that will only occur if there’s a regulatory structure around these markets.”
Behnam added that Bitcoin projects “thrive on regulatory certainty” and the organization hopes to have more clarity in the near future that will allow these companies to continue delivering innovative products that change people’s lives. Again, this stance is not surprising as Behnam has consistently argued for the need to provide market participants with regulatory clarity — something that many in the industry have argued is lacking.
Finally, putting bitcoin under the supervision of the CFTC could put the entire securities discussion to bed. This increased clarity and visibility could then pave the way for more institutional players — who insist on having a clear framework regulating digital assets — to increase their exposure to bitcoin.
However, while many are calling for more regulatory clarity, some analysts believe that a comprehensive regulatory framework could hurt some of the biggest businesses in the U.S., including Coinbase. Wells Fargo analysts initiated research coverage on Coinbase at an underweight rating, citing, among other factors, the risk of a more restrictive government stance toward digital assets.
A tougher regulatory environment as well as continued macro headwinds, could materially impact Coinbase’s volumes and revenue in 2023, analysts wrote in the initiation note.
“Regulation in particular will be a challenge for COIN, for example, note the recent discussion coming from the SEC about ‘cryptos as securities’ (e.g., for staked assets),” Wells Fargo analysts added.

BOTTOM LINE
For years, the CFTC and the SEC have squabbled for the role of top regulator of the cryptocurrency industry. Both have been reluctant to issue much in the way of formal guidance for Bitcoin companies, choosing instead to set a regulatory precedent through enforcement actions.
While some industry experts aren’t supportive of the creation of a comprehensive regulatory framework for Bitcoin, many continue to stress the importance of having more clarity in this area. While many Bitcoin natives are still against any regulation, the added clarity could further accelerate the evolution of the asset.