>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 4th of November 2022

>>> Up
* Barry Callebaut Raised to Add at Baader Helvea
* Basic-Fit Raised to Hold at Berenberg; PT 26 euros
* Digital Workforce Services Raised to Buy at Inderes
* Kahoot Raised to Buy at SpareBank; PT 22 kroner
* Scatec Raised to Buy at SpareBank; PT 100 kroner
* Telefonica Deutschland Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Verbund Raised to Hold at Stifel; PT 78 euros
* Vopak Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 23 euros

>>> Down
* British Land Cut to Hold at Liberum; PT 355 pence
* CaixaBank Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT 4.10 euros
* Caverion Cut to Hold at Inderes; PT 7 euros
* Kahoot Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 23 kroner
* Polar Capital Cut to Hold at Numis; PT 450 pence
* Sainsbury Cut to Neutral at Exane; PT 210 pence

>>> Initiation
* Darktrace Rated New Buy at Numis; PT 520 pence
* IAG Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

>>> Call
* Barry Callebaut Upgraded by Baader With Most Negatives Priced In
* Kion’s Weak Cash Flow Guide Worries, Citi Sees 2023 Improvement

>>> What to look at today - 4th of November 2022

Global stocks trimmed a weekly loss as Chinese tech shares rebounded more than 10%, helping offset some of the drag on markets caused by Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. US and European equity futures rose and a gauge of Asian shares headed for the biggest weekly jump since July. The gains in Chinese stocks came as investors continued to speculate on the possibility of Beijing rolling back its Covid-Zero policy. News that US audit officials were ahead of schedule in on-site inspections of Chinese companies also supported sentiment.  Treasury yields were steady ahead of a US jobs report. A key segment of the curve on Thursday reached an extreme of inversion not seen since the 1980s. Such curve inversions have a track record of preceding economic downturns, which is adding to market jitters before jobs data later Friday. Swaps that reference future Fed meetings indicate an expected peak rate above 5.15% around mid-2023.  Japanese shares were the biggest drag in Asia as investors in Tokyo played catchup after Thursday’s holiday.  The dollar weakened against all major currencies and the offshore yuan jumped more than 1%. Japanese shares were the biggest drag in Asia as investors in Tokyo played catchup after Thursday’s holiday. 
The dollar weakened against all major currencies and the offshore yuan jumped more than 1%. oil rose as investors weighed a tightening outlook for energy supply against persistent concerns over a global economic slowdown. Gold climbed. US After Hours SQ +14.1%, DASH +10%, MCHP +9.3%, OLED +8.9%, MNST +5.4%, EXPE +3.3% higher on earnings; TEAM -21.7%, TWLO -18%, CVNA -10.2%, PYPL -9.2% lower on earnings; APLS -16.8% drops on NDA amendment

Nikkei -1.68% Hang Seng +6.30% CSI +3.37% Shanghai +2.46% Shenzen +2.77%

Eur$ 0.9783 CNH 7.2547 CNY 7.2491 JPY 147.89 GBP 1.1229 CHF 1.0092 RUB 62.3244 TRY 18.6090 WTI 90 +2.05% Gold 1,648.25 +1.15% BTC 20,596.50 +1.76% ETC 1,581.05 +2.6271
S&P +0.46% Nasdaq +0.75% EuroStoxx +0.72% FTSE +0.63% Dax +0.49% SMI

Macro :


Keep an eye on :
- AKER NO : Aker 3Q Net Asset Value per Share NOK929 Vs. NOK968 Q/Q
- AKTIA FH : Aktia Bank 3Q Adjusted EPS EU0.28
- ANDR AV : Andritz 3Q Revenue Beats Est., Confirms 2022 Growth Target (1)
- ANTIN FP : Antin Assets Under Management EU29.0B Vs. EU22.4B Q/Q
- BCP PL : Caixa Geral CFO Sees Under 1% of Clients With ‘Vulnerabilities’
- BMPS IM : Paschi Nears Full Rights Offer Subscription in Key Revamp Step
- COIN US : Coinbase 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates: Snapshot
- CTT PL : CTT 9M Net Income EU28.3M Vs. EU26.3M Y/y
- DBV FP : DBV Technologies Reports 3Q, Updates on Peanut Allergy Study
- EDF FP : EDF Cuts Nuclear-Output Outlook Again Following Workers' Strikes
- FGR FP : Eiffage 3Q Like-for-Like Sales +7.1%
- ENEL IM : Enel Cuts FY Adjusted Net Forecast, Misses Estimates
- ENEL IM : Enel Sets Aside About €9 Billion for Margin Calls on Gas Prices
- EBS AV : Erste 3Q Net Income Beats Est., Details 2023 Goals, Strategy (1)
- ENX FP : Euronext 3Q Adjusted Ebitda EU199.9M Vs. EU209.1M Y/y
- FINGB SS : Fingerprint Cards Says Christian Fredrikson Steps Down as CEO
- FNTN GY : Freenet Narrows FY Ebitda Forecast
- GLPG NA : Galapagos Boosts FY Jyseleca Sales Forecast
- GBLB BB : GBL FY Dividend per Share Forecast Misses Estimates
- G1A GY : GEA Group Boosts FY Organic Revenue Forecast
- GMAB DC : Genmab Boosts FY Revenue Forecast
- DEC FP : JCDecaux Sees 4Q Organic Adjusted Revenue About +3%
- KER FP : *KERING IN ADVANCED TALKS TO BUY TOM FORD: DJ
- KRN GY : Krones 3Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- LDO IM : Leonardo 3Q Ebita Beats Estimates
- NEOEN FP : Neoen Boosts FY Ebitda Forecast, Beats Estimates
- NESN SW : Nestlé Recalls TOLL HOUSE Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough Tubs in US
- PIHLIS FH : Pihlajalinna 3Q EPS Misses Estimates
- PIRC M : Pirelli Boosts FY Revenue Forecast
- RCH LN : National World Confirms It’s Weighing an Offer for UK’s Reach
- SCYR SM : Sacyr Taps Santander, JPMorgan, SocGen for Investors: EL Confi
- SAMPO FH : Sampo Bows to Investor Pressure With Dual Listing: ECM Watch
- SANN SW : Santhera Calls EGM to Seek Approval for Further Financing
- SIFG NA : SIF 3Q Adjusted Ebitda EU7.8M Vs. EU7.8M Y/y
- GLE FP : SocGen's €1.3 Billion FICC, Equities Haul Shows Quality: React
- TEF SM : Telefonica 3Q Oibda Beats Estimates
- TEP FP : Teleperformance Sees FY Adjusted Ebita Margin About 15.5%
- TEN IM : Tenaris 3Q Net Sales Beats Estimates
- UN01 GY : Germany, Egypt to Strengthen Green Hydrogen, LNG Partnership
- UPONOR FH : Uponor 3Q Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- VLK NA : Van Lanschot Kempen 3Q Total Client Assets EU115.3B
- VNA GY : Vonovia 9M Total Segment Revenue EU4.62B Vs. EU3.52B Y/y
- X-ELIO Ren. Energy SM : KKR Mandates Nomura, Citi for X-Elio Stake Sale: Expansion

WSJ : Gucci Owner Kering in Advanced Talks to Acquire Tom Ford

Gucci Owner Kering in Advanced Talks to Acquire Tom Ford
French company has been competing for closely held Tom Ford with rivals including Estée Lauder

French luxury giant Kering SA KER -0.61% is in advanced discussions to buy fashion brand Tom Ford, according to people familiar with the matter.

Kering has been competing for closely held Tom Ford with rivals including Estée Lauder EL 2.01% Cos., but the French company appears to be the front-runner now and a deal could be reached soon, according to the people.

There are no guarantees of an agreement, the people cautioned, and another party could still prevail.

The Wall Street Journal reported in August that Estée Lauder was in talks to acquire Tom Ford, in a deal that could have been worth $3 billion or more and could represent the cosmetics giant’s largest-ever acquisition. It is possible the price has come down though, given the perilous market environment underscored by Estée Lauder’s underwhelming results and forecast issued on Wednesday.

Kering, whose brands include Gucci, Saint Laurent and Balenciaga, has ridden somewhat of a postpandemic boom thanks to its well-heeled customer base. Those shoppers have been more resilient amid inflationary pressures and continue splurging on pricey handbags, watches and clothing.

Last month, Kering posted a higher-than-expected rise in sales, boosted in part by U.S. tourists spending freely in Paris and other European capitals. The company has a market value of nearly €60 billion (about the same in U.S. dollars), so Tom Ford wouldn’t represent an overly large bite.

Tom Ford is best-known for its menswear, though it also sells womenswear and accessories as well as a fast-growing, high-end line of cosmetics and fragrances.

The Journal had previously reported that Estée Lauder was especially interested in Tom Ford’s beauty business, with which it has a longstanding licensing deal. But a deal with Kering could make more strategic sense given its expertise in high-end fashion and accessories.

Tom Ford could use help growing its women’s accessories business, one of the people said.

Other luxury-fashion giants have also shown resiliency despite global economic uncertainty. Also last month, Hermès International SCA, the French maker of $10,000 handbags, said it expects to increase its prices by around 5% to 10% after reporting sales that easily topped analyst estimates.

And LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE posted third-quarter revenue of €19.76 billion, beating expectations. The fashion conglomerate said it was confident in the continuation of its current sales growth, despite what it described as an uncertain geopolitical and economic backdrop.

This week Estée Lauder reported its organic sales dropped 5% in the latest quarter, hurt by Covid-19 lockdowns in China and a slowdown in orders from U.S. retailers. The New York beauty company, with brands from Clinique to M.A.C., also lowered its outlook for the current fiscal year.

WSJ : Tiger Global Halts New Chinese Equities Investments

Tiger Global Halts New Chinese Equities Investments
Longtime China investor seeks more clarity before putting more money in Chinese equities

Longtime China investor Tiger Global Management has hit pause on investing in Chinese equities, said people familiar with the matter, as the firm reassesses its exposure to the world’s second-largest economy after President Xi Jinping cemented his control over the country.

Tiger executives, including founder Charles “ Chase” Coleman, have told others that Mr. Xi’s reelection and his stacking of the Communist Party’s leadership with loyalists at the recent party Congress could increase geopolitical tensions and means the country’s Zero-Covid policy will likely continue, the people said.

China’s determination to stamp out Covid-19 outbreaks with lockdowns and other restrictions has been a major drag on its economic growth. Concerns about what Beijing might attempt to do with Taiwan, a democratically self-ruled island, also increased after the Chinese Communist Party recently amended its charter to include the phrase “firmly oppose Taiwan independence” and elevated a military commander familiar with Taiwan.

Covid-19 lockdowns, corruption crackdowns and more have put China’s economy on a potential crash course. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains how China’s economic downturn could harm the U.S. and the rest of the world. Illustration: David Fang
Tiger had been shrinking its exposure to Chinese equities, concentrating on a smaller set of companies it knew well and believed in, said people familiar with the move. High valuations in early 2021 also played a role, one of the people said.


Tiger further shrank its hedge fund’s China exposure to the mid-single digits heading into the congress, some of the people said, avoiding some of the carnage that hit Chinese equities as a result of it. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell 6.4% on Oct. 24, the biggest one-day decline since the 2008 global financial crisis. Chinese companies’ American depositary receipts plunged, with the five biggest U.S.-listed Chinese companies as of Oct. 21 losing $52.17 billion in market value in one day.

Tiger refrained from buying into the steep selloff, with executives telling clients they are spending more time on opportunities in India and the South Pacific.

Investors have been scaling back their China exposure as a series of regulatory crackdowns on internet-platform companies and for-profit education businesses inflicted heavy losses on many funds and highlighted the perils of investing in an authoritarian state. But the recent congress has caused even longtime China bulls to rethink their exposure.

Tiger wants more clarity about issues such as how vigorously China will pursue growth and whether the country will invade Taiwan before investing fresh dollars in Chinese equities, said people familiar with the firm. Some could come from the Politburo central committee economic work conference in December, which sets the tone for the coming year’s economic agenda and usually is chaired by Mr. Xi.

Mr. Coleman and others also have said Mr. Xi would have to stimulate the economy to some degree, said people familiar with the conversations.

An early believer in China, Tiger made billions by investing in China-focused versions of U.S. internet companies, helping to make its reputation as a savvy tech investor. It invested in three publicly traded China internet companies in 2002 and closed its first private-equity fund, a $75.8 million vehicle, in 2004. One of that fund’s first investments was in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. , which went public in 2014 in a blockbuster New York IPO.

The firm’s most successful bet in China was a $200 million investment in e-commerce giant JD.com, which returned $5 billion. Tiger also was an early investor in Didi Global Inc. and artificial-intelligence company SenseTime Group Inc., and had exited both companies not long after the IPO lockup periods ended, according to people familiar with the investments.

Losing bets include those in apartment provider Danke Apartment and tutoring company Zuoyebang, according to a recent Tiger document.

Tiger still retains significant exposure to China through several private-equity funds, said people familiar with the firm, but has dramatically slowed down in making new investments in private companies since Beijing intensified its regulatory crackdown on internet platforms last summer. Its biggest private investments in China are TikTok parent Bytedance Ltd. and fast-fashion retailer Shein.

Tiger’s hedge fund has been one of the worst performers in the industry recently, erasing years of gains in months and prompting the firm to cut fees earlier this year. The hedge fund lost 7% last year and has retreated 52% this year through September. Its long-only fund has fared worse. Tiger’s Chinese equities exposure has contributed to the losses, said people familiar with the firm, though to a lesser extent percentage-wise than the rest of the portfolios. Tiger managed roughly $60 billion firmwide as of Sept. 30.

Tiger was a net seller of Chinese equities for the year ended June 30, one of the people said, but Tiger also bought Chinese equities as the market was falling, a buy-the-dip strategy that previously had proved profitable. Tiger partner Edward Lei, who focused on Tiger’s public investments in China for almost a decade, left in June and is trying to raise money for his own global hedge fund.

Some of the people familiar with Tiger said JD.com and food-delivery company Meituan comprise the bulk of Tiger’s remaining exposure to China in its hedge fund.

>>> US After Hours Summary: Busy earnings session; SQ +14.1%, DASH +10%, MCHP +9

After Hours Summary: Busy earnings session; SQ +14.1%, DASH +10%, MCHP +9.3%, OLED +8.9%, MNST +5.4%, EXPE +3.3% higher on earnings; TEAM -21.7%, TWLO -18%, CVNA -10.2%, PYPL -9.2% lower on earnings; APLS -16.8% drops on NDA amendment

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: CUTR +23.4%, TMDX +19.7%, SQ +14.1%, PODD +10.4%, DASH +10%, VIR +9.9%, MCHP +9.3% (also increases dividend), OLED +8.9%, IHRT +7%, BE +6.9%, EXAS +6.7%, PGNY +6.6%, MNST +5.4% (also authorizes new $500 mln share repurchase program), UPLD +5.2%, COLD +5%, CGNX +4.6% (also increases dividend), ALHC +4.5%, STEM +4.1%, CDXS +4%, MELI +4%, MP +4%, COIN +3.9%, LYV +3.4%, EXPE +3.3%, MODG +3.2%, CTVA +3.1%, FATE +3.1%, BECN +2.2%, SBUX +1.9%, SPCE +1.9%, CRSR +1.7%, AOSL +1.5%, MNTV +1.4%, DBX +0.8%, MSI +0.8%, DOUG +0.7%, TPIC +0.7%, KWR +0.5%, OEC +0.5%, SDGR +0.4%, DRH +0.2%, DXC +0.2%, RMAX +0.2%, AEE +0.1%, AES +0.1%, AL +0.1%, ATSG +0.1%, CODI +0.1%, FRT +0.1%, HMN +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: RKLB +4% (selected by Inmarsat as partner to develop L-band radio for NASA), UVV +2.1% (authorizes new $100 mln share repurchase program), ERF +1.7% (increases dividend, reports earnings), NKLA +1.4% (files for 43,229,689 share offering by selling stockholders), ALGN +1% (ALGN and DM announce strategic collaboration to supply iTero Element Flex intraoral scanners to Desktop Labs), HCAT +0.1% (Point72 increases passive stake to 5.1% from 2.2%), IGMS +0.1% (files $400 mln mixed securities shelf offering), CAT +0.1% (awarded a maximum $1.28 bln 5-year U.S. Defense Logistics Agency contract), ARKK +0.1% (Cathie Wood looking to sell Twitter shares according to NY Post)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: FNKO -22.6%, SEM -21.9% (also authorizes new $1 bln share repurchase program), TEAM -21.7%, TWLO -18%, CYRX -17.9%, VIAV -14%, NET -13.9%, DH -13.2%, APPN -13%, TRUP -11.4% (also to acquire PetExpert), CDNA -10.6%, CVNA -10.2%, FRG -9.8%, HRT -9.6%, USM -9.4%, PYPL -9.2%, GSAT -8.8% (also files mixed securities shelf offering), YELP -7.8% (also authorizes $250 mln increase to stock repurchase program), KTOS -7.4% (also wins MACH-TB contract to increase US hypersonic flight tests), MED -7.3%, CE -6.8%, RKT -6.8% (also approves renewal and extension of $1 bln repurchase program), BIGC -5.7%, LASR -5.5%, GDDY -5.2%, ADPT -4.9%, ILMN -4.7%, PEN -4.5%, TMST -4.4%, LUNG -4%, WBD -3.9%, FND -3.7%, CORT -3.6%, CTRA -3.6%, SGMO -3.6%, SPT -3.5%, VTR -3.3%, SYNA -3.1%, BOOM -3%, GDYN -2.8%, BILL -2.5% (also to acquire Finmark), OTEX -2.5%, AMN -2.4%, GH -2.3%, EOG -2.2%, ED -2.1%, LGF.A -2.1%, DNLI -1.9%, CYTK -1.6%, STEP -1.6%, SWKS -1.6%, OPEN -1.5%, PLYA -1.4%, LPRO -1.2%, ALKT -1%, CABO -1%, FOXF -1%, LPI -1%, AVB -0.9%, WW -0.9%, IOVA -0.4%, WPM -0.3%, AMGN -0.2%, SPXC -0.2%, MTD -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: APLS -16.8% (provides update on intravitreal pegcetacoplan NDA, will amend NDA, which will extend review period by three mos), GWH -5.3% (files $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering), ISEE -4.5% (submits first part of NDA for Avacincaptad Pegol), KRP -4.2% (to acquire mineral and royalty interests held by Hatch Royalty for $290 mln; also commences 5 mln share offering), LUNG -4% (files $200 mln mixed securities shelf offering), DM -3.2% (ALGN and DM announce strategic collaboration to supply iTero Element Flex intraoral scanners to Desktop Labs), PI -2.7% (files mixed securities shelf offering), NGM -1.8% (presents findings from CATALINA Phase 2 trial of NGM621), VICI -1.7% (stock offering), AAPL -0.8% (paused hiring for many jobs outside of R&D in escalation of cost cuts, according to Bloomberg), EL -0.4% (preparing formal bid for luxury retailer Tom Ford according to WWD), TEVA -0.1% (CEO will step down when his contract expires next year, according to WSJ)

FT : Orsted: headwinds buffet renewables

Orsted: headwinds buffet renewables
Supply bottlenecks and rising interest rates raise questions about speed at which growth materialises

By rights, renewable energy companies should have the wind behind them. Fossil fuels need to be phased out of the energy mix. Renewable power should take up the slack. Yet industry leader Orsted, whose wind business posted disappointing third-quarter results, has lost almost half of its value over the past two years, while MSCI’s world oil index has more than doubled.

Lex has enthused over renewable investment, but that has been a bad call in recent years. Unfortunately, renewables stocks came into the current cycle priced for breakneck growth. The long-term secular growth potential remains. But supply bottlenecks and rising interest rates raise questions about the speed at which this materialises. Plus increasing competition has capped profitability.

Supply chain snafus have not helped. Vessels required to install wind farms are running short. The cost of turbines is up 10 to 25 per cent according to Mediobanca Research. Also, growing one’s renewables footprint requires a lot of investment, just when interest rates are rising. Orsted’s net debt should rise from less than 2 times ebitda this year to 3.4 in 2025, on Bernstein estimates. Debt cost of 3.3 per cent this past period is up from 2.6 per cent in the second quarter.


Market disappointment with persistent bad news, including low wind speeds, has exerted its toll. Wind stocks have de-rated sharply. Orsted, on an enterprise value of 11 times ebitda, sits at roughly a third of its valuation peak of early 2021. At least it makes money. Vestas has swung into loss.


The good news is that industry tailwinds remain in place. The US government has backed renewable energy with this year’s Inflation Reduction Act. Europe will need to offer more of a push too if it really does want to replace Russian gas. Oil and gas companies, which face a strategic bind with bags of cash, may snap up players which get into trouble.

Unfortunately, until the reality of growth catches up with breezy hopes, wind power shares will continue to flounder.

FT : David Montgomery considers potential Reach purchase

David Montgomery considers potential Reach purchase
Media investment firm National World in early stages of exploring offer for national and regional newspaper group

UK newspaper veteran David Montgomery is exploring a bid to buy Reach, the country’s largest local news publisher and owner of the Mirror and Express titles.

Montgomery’s company National World, which last year made a swoop on the UK’s third largest local news publisher JPI Media for £10mn, said late on Thursday that it was in “the early stages of exploring a possible offer” for Reach, adding that it had not yet approached its board.

The UK’s local newspaper industry has long struggled to make money from online readers, while declining print circulation has pushed down revenues. Reach has in recent years pursued an aggressive acquisition strategy, arguing that scale is the way to make online news pay.

A successful bid for Reach would once again put Montgomery at the helm of a sizeable chunk of Britain’s local news market and further consolidate a sector that has struggled to find a sustainable business model based on digital advertising.

Reach’s share price has slumped nearly 70 per cent in the past year on concerns about the outlook for advertising spending, soaring newsprint costs and a deteriorating UK economic backdrop. But the company still has a market capitalisation of £328mn, roughly six times higher than National World.

Montgomery, who ran the predecessor to Reach in the 1990s, led a consolidation of local press titles in 2012 with the creation of Local World, which he sold three years later to Reach, then known as Trinity Mirror, in a £187mn deal.

Other ventures have been less successful. The launch of Local World followed Montgomery’s exit from Mecom, a pan-European media group he set up in 2005. A string of acquisitions meant its debt ballooned to €680mn before investors fled and it crashed out of the FTSE 250 alongside Johnston Press.

When National World last year purchased JPI, it estimated that the group would make £17mn in digital revenue in the year ending January 2021, out of total revenue of £85mn. Revenues last year reached £86mn but digital made up only £12.9mn.

Montgomery also weighed a bid for the Telegraph newspapers in 2019. He listed National World that year, seeking to carve out a stake in British news.

Reach, which declined to comment, reported revenue of £615.8mn with an operating profit of £79.3mn in 2021.

Journalists at Reach went on strike in September after talks with management over pay collapsed, although they later accepted a revised salary offer.

Challenges : Comment Nissan veut reprendre le pouvoir sur Renault dans l'Allianc

Comment Nissan veut reprendre le pouvoir sur Renault dans l'Alliance

Nissan et Renault sont en pleine négociation pour recalibrer leurs participations croisées. Cela n’aurait pas d'influence sur les synergies de l’Alliance, mais permettrait au constructeur japonais de retrouver une certaine indépendance. Le pouvoir français serait affaibli au sein du conseil d’administration. Les relations se sont dégradées entre les deux partenaires.


L’Alliance Renault-Nissan, qui est désormais un partenariat triangulaire depuis que Mitsubishi est entré dans la danse en 2016, tient la route depuis plus de vingt ans. Mais, alors que le constructeur français s’était porté au chevet d’un Nissan au bord de la faillite en 1999, la situation a changé. Désormais, Nissan a renoué avec les profits, avec 1,6 milliard de bénéfice net sur son exercice annuel 2021-2022 (1er avril-31 mars). Fort de cette santé financière revigorée, le constructeur japonais semble de moins en moins supporter le poids de Renault dans son capital, qui s’élève à 43,4%. A mots couverts, une source interne haut placée chez Nissan concède que cette participation est la pierre d'achoppement de l'Alliance, vue du côté japonais. Car cette part accorde à Renault le pouvoir de bloquer certaines décisions capitales. Nissan, pour sa part, n'a que 15% de Renault, mais... sans droits de vote! Et, pour tout compliquer, l'Etat français détient 15% de Renault!

La prise de contrôle de Renault a été considérée comme une humiliation, mais, à l'époque, nécessité faisait loi. Depuis, le sentiment de fierté semble plus que jamais exacerbé. "Nissan est le seul constructeur à disposer d’une empreinte mondiale. Renault et Mitsubishi se concentrent sur des marchés régionaux", souligne sans pitié notre source. Voilà pourquoi Nissan est en pleine négociation pour que Renault accepte de diminuer sa part à son capital. En somme, le constructeur japonais aspire à redevenir maître de sa propre destinée. Les relations se sont dégradées entre les deux partenaires ces derniers temps. On se croirait revenu dans les temps conflictuels qui ont suivi l'arrestation de Carlos Ghosn, double patron de Renault et Nissan, en novembre 2018.

Une participation dans Renault Ampere encore incertaine
Les négociations ne pourront se faire sans contrepartie. Les contours de l’accord dont rêverait Nissan restent flous, notamment en termes de participation de Renault à son capital. Mais on évoque une participation du constructeur japonais dans Renault Ampere, la future entité du constructeur au losange dédiée aux véhicules électriques. Mais rien n’est fait à ce niveau. "Lorsqu’on investit dans une société, c’est en espérant un retour sur investissement. Nissan investit chaque année dans de nombreuses sociétés. Renault Ampere est un investissement possible parmi tant d’autres. Ce qui est certain aujourd’hui, c’est que Nissan ne peut s’engager dans une société sans connaître sa valorisation. Et Renault Ampere est encore à l’état de projet ", souligne-t-on chez Nissan.

Interrogé par Challenges, Renault s'est refusé ce jeudi à tout commentaire. Le groupe tricolore se borne à affirmer que la journée investisseurs de Renault, prévue mardi prochain, sera réservée à des annonces purement Renault. Une communication ultérieure devrait avoir lieu, toutefois, sur l'Alliance. Mais, visiblement, les âpres discussions ne sont pas terminées.

En affichant cette timidité face à une participation croisée, Nissan lâcherait-il son partenaire de vingt ans? En termes technologiques, non. "Les investissements financiers sont une chose, les partenariats stratégiques en sont une autre. L’Alliance fonctionne depuis plus de vingt ans pour partager des technologies et mettre en place des économies d’échelle. Le même principe est instauré avec Mitsubishi. Cela permet de partager certaines spécificités de certains marchés, comme les kei cars (mini-citadines) au Japon et les technologies d’électrification en Europe."

Nissan conservera pour lui ses technologies les plus sensibles
Ces partages de technologies n’empêchent pas certaines incohérences concernant les produits. Sur le segment des SUV compacts, les Renault Austral, Nissan Qashqai et Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross sont ainsi proposés en version hybride (rechargeable ou non)… mais ils disposent chacun de mécaniques radicalement différentes. Ce qui est compréhensible pour le Mitsubishi, de conception plus ancienne, l’est beaucoup moins pour les Renault et Nissan, qui partagent de plus la même plateforme CMF-CD. La raison? Nissan tient à sa technologie e-Power, qui consiste en un moteur thermique fonctionnant comme groupe électrogène alors qu’un moteur électrique entraîne les roues. Ce dispositif breveté par le constructeur japonais est un véritable carton sur son marché domestique, au point que la Note e-Power a longtemps trusté la tête des ventes, devant Toyota, pourtant un champion de l’hybride. Nissan a trouvé pertinent de proposer également le e-Power en Europe, mais couve jalousement sa technologie, interdite à son partenaire Renault… Du coup l'Austral a une technologie hybride qui n'a rien à voir. Drôles de synergies! Ce qui n’empêche pas le japonais d’utiliser, lui, l’hybride E-Tech français pour son petit SUV Juke hybride!

L’Alliance ne sera pas révolutionnée dans son principe, quelles que soient les issues des négociations concernant les participations au capital. Nissan continuera à picorer les technologies de ses partenaires pour répondre aux besoins de certains marchés, mais il fera toujours cavalier seul sur certaines autres technologies, surtout les plus cruciales. Il en est ainsi des futures batteries solides, sur lesquelles le constructeur japonais engage des recherches importantes. "Développer les batteries de la molécule jusqu’au produit fini, ce n’est pas la même chose que nouer un partenariat avec une société spécialisée", lâche notre source. Ainsi, Nissan pourrait être un des premiers, à l’horizon 2028, à proposer ce type de batterie à la densité énergétique plus élevée et capable de charger bien plus vite. Mais son partenaire Renault n’y aura pas le droit. Le comble. Luca De Meo confiait au magazine britannique Autocar en octobre dernier qu’il trouvait cette technologie trop coûteuse. Est-ce une vraie raison ou une manière de se désintéresser d’un projet qui lui échappe? Difficile à dire, mais ce qui est certain, c’est que Nissan compte conserver pour lui ses avantages concurrentiels. Alliance ou pas, le japonais retrouve son indépendance et son orgueil à peine ses comptes redressés.