(BofA-ML)Flow Show : The Crowded & the Deserted (last of the year) Yearly updat

>>> A Week of Redemption
Weekly outflows from stocks ($8.5bn - largest in 7 weeks), bonds ($1.0bn – 1st outflow in 12 weeks), precious metals ($0.2bn)

* Weekly Fixed Income Flows
- 51 straight weeks of inflows to IG bond funds ($5.2bn) (Table 2)
- $3.8bn outflows from HY bond funds (largest in 18 weeks)
- $1.1bn outflows from EM debt funds (largest since Mar’14)
- 22 straight weeks of outflows from bank loan funds ($1.0bn)
- 14 straight weeks of outflows from TIPS ($0.1bn)

* Weekly Equity Flows
- EM: $1.7bn outflows (4 straight weeks of outflows) (Table 3)
- Europe: $1.6bn outflows (first outflows in 3 weeks)
- US: $6.0bn outflows (all via mutual funds); Japan: small $0.1bn inflows

* Winners & Losers in the 2014 Flow Show
YTD fund flows: Equities ($165bn), Fixed Income ($152bn), Money-markets (-$26bn) & Precious metals (-$7bn)

* Winners & Losers in the 2014 Flow Show
YTD fund flows: Equities ($165bn), Fixed Income ($152bn), Money-markets (-$26bn) & Precious metals (-$7bn)

* The Biggest Losers (the deserted trades heading into 2015): 
Emerging Markets (LatAm, EEMEA, local currency debt), TIPS, bank loans


>>> The Big 2014 Flow Trends:
* Into Quality, out of Junk: $168bn inflow to IG bond funds versus $23bn outflow from HY
* Into US, out of EM & Europe: $76bn inflows to US equity funds versus $15bn out of EM equity funds & $43bn outflow from Europe funds past 5 months
* Into Deflation, out of Inflation: inflows to government bonds (Chart 1), utilities, health care, out of TIPs, bank loans, energy-rich EEMEA/LatAm
* ETF’s over Mutual funds: $163bn inflows (8% AUM) to ETF’s vs just $2bn inflows
to mutual funds

(BofA-ML)Flow Show : The Crowded & the Deserted (last of the year) Yearly updat

>>> A Week of Redemption
Weekly outflows from stocks ($8.5bn - largest in 7 weeks), bonds ($1.0bn – 1st outflow in 12 weeks), precious metals ($0.2bn)

* Weekly Fixed Income Flows
- 51 straight weeks of inflows to IG bond funds ($5.2bn) (Table 2)
- $3.8bn outflows from HY bond funds (largest in 18 weeks)
- $1.1bn outflows from EM debt funds (largest since Mar’14)
- 22 straight weeks of outflows from bank loan funds ($1.0bn)
- 14 straight weeks of outflows from TIPS ($0.1bn)

* Weekly Equity Flows
- EM: $1.7bn outflows (4 straight weeks of outflows) (Table 3)
- Europe: $1.6bn outflows (first outflows in 3 weeks)
- US: $6.0bn outflows (all via mutual funds); Japan: small $0.1bn inflows

* Winners & Losers in the 2014 Flow Show
YTD fund flows: Equities ($165bn), Fixed Income ($152bn), Money-markets (-$26bn) & Precious metals (-$7bn)

* Winners & Losers in the 2014 Flow Show
YTD fund flows: Equities ($165bn), Fixed Income ($152bn), Money-markets (-$26bn) & Precious metals (-$7bn)

* The Biggest Losers (the deserted trades heading into 2015): 
Emerging Markets (LatAm, EEMEA, local currency debt), TIPS, bank loans


>>> The Big 2014 Flow Trends:
* Into Quality, out of Junk: $168bn inflow to IG bond funds versus $23bn outflow from HY
* Into US, out of EM & Europe: $76bn inflows to US equity funds versus $15bn out of EM equity funds & $43bn outflow from Europe funds past 5 months
* Into Deflation, out of Inflation: inflows to government bonds (Chart 1), utilities, health care, out of TIPs, bank loans, energy-rich EEMEA/LatAm
* ETF’s over Mutual funds: $163bn inflows (8% AUM) to ETF’s vs just $2bn inflows
to mutual funds

(BFW) Repsol Finalizing Talisman Bid Which May Exceed EU4B: Expansion


Repsol Finalizing Talisman Bid Which May Exceed EU4B: Expansion
2014-12-12 07:07:45.67 GMT


By Charles Penty
Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Repsol may offer ~C$6 p/shr for
Talisman Energy, Expansion newspaper reports, citing people in
the financial markets it doesn’t identify.
* For link to story, click on: Link

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>>> What to look at today - 12th of December 2014

US Market closed higher, but key indices slipped on an oil slick ahead of the close, oil closed -1,6% @ $60,02/bbl...since Monday market are driven by oil & greece performance...Volume were ahead of average @ 805mil shares...VIX @ 20,08% +8,36%...US After Hours ADBE +7.7%, EMKR +5.7%, SOFO -3.2%, UTX -1.8%, ZQK -1.4% following earnings/guidance... Obama worked with the Republican majority in the House to push through the $1.1T govt spending bill, avoiding a potential shutdown and sending the legislation to the Senate. Most Democrats were concerned the bill eases bank regulations, even though 57 voted with the Majority in a close 219-206 vote...Shanghai Composite opened higher and traded up as much as 1%, but approaches the final hour of trade down marginally. November economic figures are mixed to negative - most notably, industrial production missed consensus by 0.3pct to mark the 2nd worst y/y rate of growth in 5 years. Earlier in the session, local press speculated the govt will cuts its 2015 GDP target, having completed the Economic Work Council meeting. The extent of the cut will be unveiled at the next party plenum in March. Note that China lending data also remains on tap, with press reports anticipating a CNY650-700B range v CNY655Be...Nikkei +0.66% Hang Seng +0.05% Shanghai +0.63%

Eur$ 1.2391 S&P -0.41% EuroStoxx -1.24% Dax -1.33% SMI -0.85%

Macro :
- China Nov. Industrial Output Rises 7.2%; Est. 7.5%

Keep an eye on :
- AF FP : Air France Will Raise Transavia Europe With Pilots: Juniac
- AF FP : Air France-KLM’s Dutch Unit to Cut Management Layers, FD Reports
- ATC NA : Portugal Telecom Holders to Meet on Altice Deal Jan. 12
- AMS SM : Amadeus to Buy Back Shares for as Much as EU320 Million
- NDA GY : Aurubis 4Q Sales, Operating Pretax Rise; Net Drops
- BAYN GY : Bayer Plans MaterialScience Spinoff Instead of IPO: Platow Brief
- BOSS GY : Red & Black Lux to Place Up to 4.9m Shrs of Hugo Boss, priced @ €102, book closing @ 7:45 ldn time
- CPR IM : Campari's wine brands receive interest from China - Merger Market
- CBK GY : Commerzbank May Pay More Than $1b to Settle W/ U.S.: FT
- CON GY : Continental AG Required by U.S. to Sell Veyance Unit
- BN FP : Danone Names Cabanis as CFO, Confirms 2014 Targets
- FCA IM : Fiat Denies Intent to Move Ferrari Tax Residence Outside Italy
- IPN FP : Ipsen Phase 3 Ovarian Suppression Results Show Solid Efficacy
- KER FP : Gucci CEO, Creative Director Said to Exit Co.: N.Y. Post
- NOVN VX : Novartis Says Cosentyx Meets Endpoints in Psoriasis Phase IIIb
- RLIA SM : Realia shareholder Sareb may reach 12% stake and seek highest offer - Expansion
- SAF FP : Safran unit selected by Boeing to build titanium exhaust system for Boeing 777X
- SPM IM : Eni Says Assessment of Options for Stake in Saipem Put on Hold
- TEF SM : Telefonica Chairman Heads to London to Lobby for BT Deal:Reuters
- TIT IM : F2i CEO to Meet With Tel. Italia, Vodafone, Il Sole Says
- ZC FP : Zodiac Aerospace 1Q Lfl Rev. up 7.9%

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 12th of December 2014

>>> Up
*LAIRD RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*NETCARE RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*SPIRENT RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS

>>> Down
*ATRESMEDIA CORPORACION D CUT TO NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY AT CITI
*BASF CUT TO EEQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*BELGACOM CUT TO UNDERPERFORM FROM HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*BELLWAY CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY AT CITI
*CAT OIL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*MEDIASET ESPANA CUT TO NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*PERSIMMON CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY AT CITI
*STMICRO CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT UBS

>>> PT Changes


>>> Initiation
*FORTE RATED NEW BUY AT ING, PT PLN63.5
*OERLIKON RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT RBC, PT CHF15
*RECKITT BENCKISER RESUMED EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*SULZER RATED NEW SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC
*TUI AG RATED NEW BUY AT NOMURA, PT EU17.4

>>> Call
>> Stock
*NETCARE ADDED TO CEEMEA FOCUS LIST AT GOLDMAN

(BFW) F2i CEO to Meet With Tel. Italia, Vodafone, Il Sole Says


F2i CEO to Meet With Tel. Italia, Vodafone, Il Sole Says
2014-12-12 06:54:26.367 GMT


By Dan Liefgreen
Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Renato Ravanelli, CEO of
infrastructure fund F2i, wants to discuss industrial projects
and possible sale of stake in broadband carrier Metroweb., Il
Sole 24 Ore reports.
* Ravanelli aims to meet with Tel. Italia, Vodafone after
Christmas: Sole
* NOTE: Italy’s antitrust regulator said Nov. 25 an eventual
acquisition of Metroweb stake by Telecom Italia would be
scrutinized Link
* NOTE: F2i said Nov. 19 it received informal expressions of
interest in its stake in Metroweb

Link to Company News:{TIT IM <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{VOD LN <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{1260Z IM <Equity> CN <GO>}
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dliefgreen@bloomberg.net

>>> US After Hours : ADBE +7.7%, EMKR +5.7%, SOFO -3.2%, UT

After Hours Summary: ADBE +7.7%, EMKR +5.7%, SOFO -3.2%, UTX -1.8%, ZQK -1.4% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: ADBE
+7.7%, EMKR +5.7%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: EOX +5.5% (announced appointment of Mike Dickinson to the position of COO; reduced Q4 average production guidance to 3,300 BOEPD; lowered FY15 production and CapEx guidance), JAZZ +2.8% (initiated rolling NDA Submission for Defibrotide for the treatment of severe hepatic veno-occlusive disease), AHC +2.5% (announced special cash dividend of $2.25 per share), SEAS +1.9% (announced that David D'Allesandro was named interim CEO), FTR +1.2% (co's Board approved a 5% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.105 from $0.10 per share), FCE.A (Signature Global Asset Management discloses 5.16% passive stake in 13G filing)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: SOFO -3.2%, UTX -1.8%, ZQK -1.4%, XRT -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: AKR -1.9% (announced the sale of 3.4 mln shares to Citigroup), PVG -1.8% (announced a non-brokered private placement of ~12.8 mln shares), CPLP -1.7% (announed that it has secured time charter employment for the M/T 'Aias' and M/T 'Arionas'), SKYW -1.3% (reported combined November 2014 traffic For SkyWest Airlines and ExpressJet Airlines; 3.7% decrease in revenue passenger miles, available seat miles decreased 4.0%) 

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: China speculated to cut 2015 GDP target; Australia to miss budget forecast in next week's MYEFO

***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA NOV RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 11.7% (1st sequential increase in 6 months) V 11.5%E; RETAIL SALES YTD Y/Y: 12.0% V 12.0%E
- (CN) CHINA NOV INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 7.2% (3-month low and 2nd worst level in 5 years) V 7.5%E; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YTD Y/Y: % V 8.3%E
- (CN) CHINA NOV YTD FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 15.8% V 15.8%E; 13-year low
- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT CREDIT CARD BALANCES: A$49.6B v A$49.4B PRIOR; CREDIT CARD PURCHASES: A$24.4B v A$23.9B PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND DEC ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 126.5 V 121.8 PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV BUSINESS MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.2 V 58.9 PRIOR; 4-month low
- (KR) South Korea Sept Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) 122.2, +0.2% m/m v +0.7% prior
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.50%, AS EXPECTED

***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +1.3%, S&P/ASX -0.1%, Kospi +0.3%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng +0.1%, Dec S&P500 -0.2% at 2,027

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold flat at $1,225, Jan crude oil -1.3% at $59.19/brl, Mar copper +0.3% at $2.92/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 1.0 tonnes to 725.8 tonnes; Highest level since Nov 7th; 3rd straight increase
- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Dec 10th: $4.49T v $4.49T prior; M1 y/y change: 8.9% v 8.8% w/w; M2 y/y change: 6.0% v 5.8% w/w
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 2.75% 2024 Bonds; avg yield: 2.918%; bid-to-cover: 2.58x
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥450B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥450B in 3-5yr JGB, ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point 6.1184 v 6.1153 prior setting (first weaker setting since Dec 5th)

***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Shanghai Composite opened higher and traded up as much as 1%, but approaches the final hour of trade down marginally. November economic figures are mixed to negative - most notably, industrial production missed consensus by 0.3pct to mark the 2nd worst y/y rate of growth in 5 years. Silver lining in the industrial output is that power generation rose sequentially for the first time in 4 months. Fixed Asset investment is in line with consensus but still at a 13-year low, while retail sales showed a modest improvement. AUD/USD was little changed on China data release, trading at the top of its 40-pip range above $0.8270. Earlier in the session, local press speculated the govt will cuts its 2015 GDP target, having completed the Economic Work Council meeting. The extent of the cut will be unveiled at the next party plenum in March. Note that China lending data also remains on tap, with press reports anticipating a CNY650-700B range v CNY655Be.

- Australia mid-year economic and fiscal outlook (MYEFO) will be formally released on Monday, Dec 15th. Speaking ahead of that announcement, Treasurer Hockey warned that the budget deficit will be larger than expected and return to surplus take longer than expected. Hockey noted the underperformance was due to commodity price decline being larger than anticipated, even though fundamentally the economy is still strong and in a positive trajectory.

- US Pres Obama worked with the Republican majority in the House to push through the $1.1T govt spending bill, avoiding a potential shutdown and sending the legislation to the Senate. Most Democrats were concerned the bill eases bank regulations, even though 57 voted with the Majority in a close 219-206 vote.

***Equities***
US markets:
- ADBE: Reports Q4 $0.36 v $0.30e, R$1.07B v $1.06Be; To Acquire Fotolia for $800M in cash; acquisition not reflected in guidance; +8.1% afterhours
- EOX: Announces COO Change; Lowers 2015 CAPEX guidance to $62-81M from $210-240M; +5.5% afterhours
- PNM: New Mexico Utility unit files for electric rate increase, comprehensive rate restructuring; To raise customer bill by 7.7% on average; +1.2% afterhours
- ZQK: Reports Q4 -$0.29 v -$0.11e, R$400.7M v $427Me; -1.4% afterhours
- UTX: Guides initial FY15 EPS $7.00-7.20 v $7.32e, R$66-67B v $67.5Be; Affirms FY14 guidance - slides ahead of investor/analyst meeting; -1.5% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: SMS Management & Technology SMX.AU +4.2% (affirms guidance); DeNA 2432.JP +7.7% (analyst action)
- Industrials: China Railway Group 601390.CN +5.4%, China Communications Construction 601800.CN +2.0%, China Railway Erju 600528.CN +10.0% (China to accelerate transportation reforms); Boart Longyear BLY.AU -5.4% (FY14 guidance); Tsugami Corp 6101.JP +1.5% (to buyback shares); Nidec 6594.JP +4.0% (to acquire assets in Germany and China)
- Healthcare: Newtree Group 1323.HK -4.1% (H1 results)

(BFW) Red & Black Lux to Place Up to 4.9m Shrs of Hugo Boss


DBF 12/11 21:21 DGAP-Adhoc: HUGO BOSS AG: Red & Black Lux S.à r.l. plans to place up to 4.9 million shares of HUGO BOSS AG
BN 12/11 21:28 *RED & BLACK LUX S.À R.L. TO PLACE UP TO 4.9M SHRS OF HUGO BOSS
BN 12/11 21:27 *HUGO BOSS: FREE FLOAT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 66%
BN 12/11 21:25 *HUGO BOSS AG: RED & BLACK LUX S.À R.L. PLANS TO PLACE UP TO 4.9

Red & Black Lux to Place Up to 4.9m Shrs of Hugo Boss
2014-12-11 21:31:54.700 GMT


By Robin Stringer
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Red & Black to carry out accelerated
book building process representing 7% total shr cap Hugo Boss.
* Hugo Boss free float will increase to around 66% shr capital
* NOTE: Red & Black to date owned 39% Hugo Boss shrs
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>>> US Close Dow +0,36% S&P +0,45% Nasdaq +0,52% Russell +0,44%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Climb While Crude Oil Remains Pressured

The stock market rebounded from Wednesday's broad-based weakness, but the key indices slipped on an oil slick ahead of the close. The S&P 500 added 0.5% after being up as much as 1.5% intraday to narrow this week's decline to 1.9%.

The Thursday rebound likely included a short covering element as the key indices rallied through the first hour and respected narrow ranges into the afternoon. However, selling into the close pressured the indices from their highs.

Investors received a pre-market confidence boost from a better than expected Retail Sales report and a larger than expected decline in weekly initial claims. In turn, the data helped the Dollar Index (88.59, +0.33) rebound from three consecutive declines. However, the dollar strength wasn't entirely due to economic data as the greenback entered the morning with a solid overnight gain against the yen. The dollar/yen pair climbed to 119.00 (+1.1%), and retraced most of its decline from Wednesday.

The dollar strength acted as a drag on crude oil, which could not hold its overnight gain. Instead, the energy component spent the bulk of the day near its flat line before sliding to its morning low into the pit close to settle lower by 1.6% at $60.02/bbl.

Meanwhile, the energy sector (unch) spiked into the lead at the start, but could not remain in that spot through the late-afternoon decline in crude oil. Similarly, the broader market retreated during the final two hours as crude slid to a new low for the day.

Crude oil's inability to sustain a rebound brought up concerns about the prospect of margin calls, debt repayment capabilities, a global economic slowdown, and just about anything else one can dream up in a negative causality relationship. We're not saying all of that was valid, only that it was enough in the back of the market's mind to keep participants fixated on oil price dynamics as a market mover.

Outside of energy, three of the remaining five cyclical sectors ended in-line with or ahead of the broader market. The consumer discretionary sector (+0.7%) enjoyed broad support from homebuilders and retailers. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 24.90, +0.12) and SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 91.71, +1.17) gained 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively.

Elsewhere, the technology sector (+0.5%) was underpinned by large cap components like Facebook (FB 77.72, +1.54), Google (GOOGL 532.15, +4.11), and Microsoft (MSFT 47.15, +0.25). The trio gained between 0.5% and 2.0% while high-beta chipmakers also contributed to the advance with the PHLX Semiconductor Index adding 0.5%.

Also of note, the industrials (+0.5%) kept pace with the market which masked relative strength among transport stocks. The Dow Jones Transportation Average added 0.8%.

Over on the countercyclical side, consumer staples (+0.8%), telecom services (+0.6%), and utilities (+1.0%) settled ahead of the broader market while the health care sector (+0.3%) underperformed.

Treasuries slumped in the morning, but recovered the bulk of those losses during the afternoon. The 10-yr yield ticked up one basis point to 2.18%.

Participation was a little ahead of average with 805 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included initial claims, retail sales, import/export prices, and business inventories:
  • The initial claims level fell to 294,000 from an unrevised 297,000 while the consensus expected a decline to 295,000 
    • Over the past few months, the initial claims level has stabilized below 300,000. There is nothing in the data that suggests claims will move out of this range in the near term 
  • Retail sales increased 0.7% in November after increasing an upwardly revised 0.5% (from 0.3%) while the consensus expected an increase of 0.4% 
    • This month's retail sales report was set up for a positive surprise from the start. According to the November employment report, aggregate wages accelerated and increased 0.9% after increasing just 0.3% in October. With the savings rate already at elevated levels relative to current debt payment needs, there was no reason why households would hold on to a large portion of the income gain instead of spending it 
  • Export prices, excluding agriculture, decreased 1.2% in November after decreasing 0.9% in the prior reading 
    • Excluding oil, import prices ticked down 0.2%, which followed last month's 0.2% decline 
  • Business inventories increased 0.2% in October after increasing an unrevised 0.3% in September while the consensus expected an increase of 0.2% 
    • The changes in inventories for manufacturers (0.1%) and merchant wholesalers (0.4%) were known prior to the release. The only piece of new information was that retailer inventories increased 0.2% for a second consecutive month in October 
    • A 0.7% increase at both building materials dealers and clothing stores offset a 0.7% decline at furniture stores and a 0.5% decline at general merchandise stores
Tomorrow, November PPI (consensus -0.1%) will be released at 8:30 ET while the preliminary reading of the December Michigan Sentiment Survey will be reported at 9:55 ET (consensus 89.5).
  • Nasdaq Composite +12.7% YTD 
  • S&P 500 +10.1% YTD 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +6.2% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 +0.2% YTD