(Citi) 2015 Strategy

CEEMEA Road Ahead 2015
Volatility to Continue But Flat Returns as a Region
* Macro — The region is likely to experience another year of sub-trend growth in
2015, with weak commodity prices & current account deficits featuring as common
challenges. Sanctions & uncertainty have prompted us to forecast a 1% contraction
in Russia, marking the sixth year of worsening GDP. In contrast, Poland’s growth of
+3.5% in 2015 is driven by robust domestic demand and a healthy labour market.
* Earnings — Consensus expects earnings growth of 10% in 2015, slightly weaker
than Latam and EM Asia, but still above DMs. At +15%, EPS growth in Turkey is
amongst the strongest, thanks to lower oil prices and moderating inflation. We
expect earnings downgrades in South Africa and Russia.
* Valuation & Market Target — Premium valuations in South Africa and Poland
contrast against the extreme discount of Russia. We see the best returns over the
next year coming from Turkey, our year-end target implies 15% upside. South Africa
sits as our key underweight, where we expect the local index to fall by 5%. As a
region, our CEEMEA year-end target implies flat prices, with this dropping to -5%
once we account for the US$ recovery that our economists forecast.
* Themes — The first US rate hike, combined with a US$ recovery, can be expected
to put pressure on South African and Turkish assets. South Africa also sits in a
vulnerable position given the slide in commodity prices (similarly with oil in Russia).
Given these challenges, we expect investors to maintain a preference for strong
yield & capital return stories. We also expect ‘quality’ to keep outperforming.

NYT : Some Accused of Insider Trading May Rethink Their Guilty Pleas

A ruling that tossed out the insider trading convictions of two hedge fund managers may have opened the door for others charged with wrongful trading to get their cases or pleas dismissed.

A federal judge in Manhattan, Andrew L. Carter Jr., on Thursday ordered the lawyers for the defendants in an unrelated insider trading case to come to court on Dec. 18 to discuss the implications of the ruling. The day before, a panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit overturned the convictions of the hedge fund managers Anthony Chiasson and Todd Newman.

Judge Carter said in his brief order that he wanted to discuss whether the appellate ruling affects a guilty plea by at least one of five defendants. In the case he is overseeing, five friends have been accused of receiving a secondhand tip about IBM’s plans to acquire SPSS for $1.2 billion in October 2009.

The move by the judge is a sign that the impact of the appellate court’s decision may have ramifications well beyond Mr. Chiasson and Mr. Newman. The ruling was notable because the appellate court significantly reined in prosecutors when pursuing cases of insider trading, especially against individuals who are far removed from the original source of an illegal stock tip.

Under the appeals court ruling, the government must also show more than just friendship between people sharing in inside information in order to establish a benefit — one of the elements of proving insider trading. The court said the person passing on a tip must receive something “of some consequence.”

In legal circles it is seen as likely that the ruling will mean that Michael Steinberg, a former portfolio manager at SAC Capital Advisors, will have his conviction overturned because he traded on the same information that did not constitute an illegal tip for Mr. Chiasson and Mr. Newman. Several others who pleaded guilty and testified as cooperating witnesses in the trials of Mr. Chiasson, Mr. Newman and Mr. Steinberg may also seek to withdraw their pleas, since they implicitly pleaded guilty to something that was not a crime, according to the appellate court ruling. (Mr. Steinberg remains free pending an appeal.)

Roland Riopelle, the lawyer for Danny Kuo, a former analyst who pleaded guilty to insider trading and cooperated with the government in its investigation of Mr. Chiasson and Mr. Newman, said he has contacted prosecutors in the wake of the appellate ruling.

Preet Bharara, the United States attorney for Manhattan, has said his office is considering appealing the appellate court’s decision. But at the same time, Mr. Bharara, in a statement issued after the decision, said he did not expect many convictions to be affected by the appellate ruling.

Still, the hearing ordered by Judge Carter may be only the first of a number of attempts by people charged with insider trading to raise new challenges to those charges or pleas they have entered.

Michael Kimelman, a former lawyer and trader convicted of insider trading and who served 21 months in a federal prison, said he was discussing with several lawyers whether to file a motion to seek to reopen his conviction. Mr. Kimelman said that like Mr. Chiasson and Mr. Newman he was not aware that he was trading on inside information when he bought shares of 3Com in September 2007.

Mr. Kimelman says he believes the jury in his trial was improperly instructed on the law. He noted that the judge in his case — Richard J. Sullivan of the Federal District Court in Manhattan — was the same judge who presided over the trials of Mr. Chiasson, Mr. Newman and Mr. Steinberg. That said, Mr. Kimelman, 43, acknowledged that it would be difficult to reopen his conviction three years later.

The appeals court ruling may also provide a path for defense lawyers to challenge, or even unwind, regulatory cases. Indeed, some lawyers have approached the Securities and Exchange Commission on the possibility of reopening closed and settled insider trading cases.

A lawyer for Filip Szymik, who recently settled accusations that he tipped a friend about a hedge fund’s secret plan to attack Herbalife, said he contacted the S.E.C. this week to raise the prospect of revisiting the settlement. The lawyer, Paul Ryan, declined to comment further.

The S.E.C. argued that in leaking the information Mr. Szymik “received a personal benefit by gifting confidential information to his friend.”

TechCrunch : The da Vinci 1.0 AiO Is The Future Of All-In-One 3D Printers

{http://tcrn.ch/1wioF43} have a look to the slide show, not very impressive...still far from a mass market product

As we enter the second half of this, the Decade of 3D Printing, we are coming to a crossroads. On one hand the Rebel open source RepRap crowd are clamoring to keep 3D printing free, man, while the Imperial forces of 3D Systems and Stratasys – along with countless imitators all attempting to commercialize 3D printing and create the first popular home printer – are locked in a race to the bottom in order to gain market share and users. The resulting dichotomy pits amazingly advanced DIY printers that sometimes explode into a gush of melted plastic and sadness with amazingly advanced proprietary printers that also sometimes explode into a gush of melted plastic and sadness. The XYZPrinting da Vinci 1.0 AiO is firmly on the latter side.

The AiO is a closed box that contains a full ABS 3D printing system as well as a laser 3D scanner. A turntable under the built platform spins objects slowly as a laser takes in their contours and the resulting objects can be printed directly from the scanning software. It is literally a 3D copier with true object-in/object-out systems. In short, it is a Star Trekian replicator – within reason.

First, lets’ take a moment to marvel at what this thing truly is. You can place an object into it and make a 3D copy of that object. If you really think about what that means you realize that we have moved from the age of bits into the age of atoms. While the AiO might not be the best 3D printer in the world it does bring 3D copying into your home or office. Let that sink in. A few years ago that was deemed impossible, the realm of science fiction. But no longer. But that’s not the most amazing thing. The most amazing thing about this printer is its $799 price tag. That’s right: $799 gets you a 7.8×7.8 x7.5 inch build envelope in ABS as well as a 3D scanner. A good color laser printer cost that much in 2013.

But how does it work? Everything about the AiO is adequate. The prints are surprisingly smooth and detailed. A 3D print test I ran (below) passed with flying colors and a Mario star tree topper I printed looked like it could come out of the Nintendo Store. There was no clean-up – the printer prints onto a heated glass surface that is pre-calibrated to ensure excellent prints – and the machine is nearly silent except for the muffled motion of the motor and a small fan. I had no complaints regarding the printing process either although the software was a bit buggy on the Mac.

The scanner was good but required planning. Scanning shiny objects is not recommended and even some detail is lost on matte objects. I scanned a few objects using the machine including a matte plaster gargoyle and a porcelain elephant. You can check the gargoyle out here but the elephant didn’t make the cut. A little lion statue, however, looked great except for some missing pixels around the head. The results, while not perfect, were just fine for printing. Like the photocopiers of old, the quality of the 3D copies that come out of this machine is lacking. I can only imagine what would happen if I printed a copy of a copy of a copy. Perhaps I’d create the first 3D zine?

Put these two amazing features together and you get something truly special. Be forewarned, however: the AiO is actually huge, probably twice as big as a Makerbot and a little bigger than a home laser printer. It’s also limited in a few important ways.

Screen Shot 2014-12-10 at 10.07.39 AM
When the AiO worked well it was miraculous. Objects printed onto the glass substrate without sticking and came up like magic. If you’re familiar with 3D printing, trying to dig a plastic part off of a stubborn plate is disturbing at worst and impossible at best. These objects seemed to just slide off like cookies off of a Teflon cookie sheet. When trying to print the gargoyle, for example, the failed spectacularly. Filament balled up into a smoky lump and started to stink. The plastic melted all over nozzle and the resulting clog required a lot of digging with small tweezers to clear. Because the entire machine is inside a closed box access to the print head is limited. This was a testament to the direction 3D printing is heading – all-in-one ease with proprietary consumables – as well as many of the pitfalls. Most hobbyists will bristle at having to deal with a hermetically sealed case and filament cartridge but, as HP and other printer makers well know, the money isn’t in the printer, it’s in the ink.

Therein lies the rub. The AiO uses a 1.75mm ABS filament but requires a special cartridge. This isn’t any ordinary box, however. Inside is a tiny EEPROM that tells the printer how much filament is left in the cartridge and, most important, prevents you from refilling the cartridge on your own. You can hack the cartridge to read “full” again. While the 600g cartridge costs a mere $30, it would still be nice to use your own filament if you have it. This requirement is the first inkling that we are entering an odd new world of DRM-protected 3D printing.

However, if you can accept the proprietary filament and/or are ready to refill the filament cartridges when (and let’s face it, this will probably happen) XYZPrinting stops making these cartridges or goes out of business, you might be in luck. You could also just wait for a more open 3D printer model that uses standard filament and offers slightly better scan quality, but for $799 you might be waiting for a while. In short the AiO is a fascinating, inexpensive, and impressive piece of technology that is well worth looking at if you’re into 3D printing and want to give it a try.

NYT : Mutual Fund Industry May Face New Rules

Mutual funds are intended to be mom-and-pop financial products whose investments can be sold off quickly. The funds were never meant to pile into markets where trades take weeks to complete.

Some mutual funds, however, have lately been making bets that might be hard to get out of, especially in difficult market conditions.

The stampede into investments that can be difficult to exit has regulators increasingly concerned. On Thursday, Mary Jo White, the chairwoman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, told a conference organized by The New York Times/DealBook that the agency was undertaking a comprehensive review of the mutual fund sector. One of the review’s major objectives is to assess whether some mutual funds are loading up on investments that would take too long to unwind.

“A fund that does not manage liquidity risk in its portfolio could have difficulty meeting redemptions if it came under stress,” Ms. White said.

On Wall Street, liquidity refers to the ease at which a trade can get done for a reasonable price. An illiquid market is one where trades may be infrequent or take a long time to complete. Mutual funds face caps on how many illiquid assets they can hold. The fear is that funds that hold hard-to-sell assets might get caught out in times of crisis. Crucially, the funds may not be able to unwind their bets at a quick enough pace to raise the cash that would be needed to make timely payments to withdrawing customers.

Ms. White also said Thursday that the agency was considering whether to update its liquidity standards for mutual funds. The current rules that govern mutual funds and illiquid assets, which are more than 20 years old, may need an overhaul after the funds have expanded into new investments and markets.

Certain types of mutual funds might come in for particular scrutiny in the review, like those that deploy hedge fund tactics in their investing.

But Ms. White’s remarks on liquidity may have significant consequences for a type of mutual fund that has soared in size since the financial crisis of 2008. These are funds that invest mostly in leveraged loans, the Wall Street name for bank loans to companies with low credit ratings.

As interest rates have fallen to record lows, the market for leveraged loans has swelled. The companies like to borrow cheaply with the loans, and investors like the debt because it often has higher yields than other types of investments. Mutual funds and exchanged-traded funds that bet primarily on leveraged loans now have $113 billion of assets, up from around $20 billion before the financial crisis of 2008, according to data from Lipper.

The leveraged loan mutual funds face a big headache when it comes to trading the debt. On average, investors in the debt have to wait two weeks — and sometimes a lot more — to actually collect the cash from selling the loans. For stocks and bonds, that process is usually completed in no more than three days.

“In a very stressed market environment, there exists the possibility that fund managers might not be able to receive the proceeds to pay off investors in their funds,” said Stephen Tu, an analyst with Moody’s Investors Service who covers mutual fund companies.

Prominent asset management firms, like Fidelity, Oppenheimer, Invesco and Eaton Vance, manage some of the largest leveraged loan funds. The fund firms are often upfront about the risks of the leveraged loan market. The public documents for their funds emphasize that the leveraged loan market can be illiquid. In addition, the funds may have access to credit lines that they can draw on to help finance customer withdrawals in stressed periods. And the fund companies also point out that leveraged loan funds have coped with sizable customer withdrawals this year.

Joseph Welsh, manager of the Oppenheimer Senior Floating Rate Fund, noted that funds for retail investors have had $24 billion of outflows since April. “It was all withdrawn totally orderly,” he said.

Still, the last few months have not been especially difficult for the debt markets or the wider economy. The leveraged loan funds were much smaller in 2008, the last time that markets crashed and dried up. And analysts like Mr. Tu of Moody’s wonder how the funds might now deal with an inundation of customer withdrawals.

A fund can place an order to sell a loan with a Wall Street firm immediately. But it takes much longer for the seller to collect the cash and transfer ownership of the loan — a crucial process known as “settlement” on Wall Street. In the median leveraged loan trade, settlement takes around 14 days, according to data from the Loan Syndications and Trading Association, an industry group.

One reason it takes so long is that the banks that originally arranged the loan have to register the change in ownership of the debt. And the banks sometimes go to the borrowing firm — which may not want certain investors holding its debt — to approve the change in ownership.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has long had qualms about mutual funds holding illiquid assets. A rule from 1992, for instance, says that mutual funds cannot have more than 15 percent of their holdings in illiquid assets. And the rule goes on to define illiquid assets as those that “may not be sold or disposed of in the ordinary course of business within seven days at approximately the value at which the mutual fund has valued the investment on its books.” Given that it can take far longer than seven days for a leveraged loan trade to settle, mutual funds would appear to face tight restrictions on how many loans they can hold.

But another commission regulation, from 1969, defines a sale in a way that has effectively made the loans’ long settlement periods a nonissue. This rule says that a sale takes place merely when the seller and buyer of an asset have a written contract for the transaction. As a result, when it comes to defining illiquidity, settlement doesn’t have to be complete. Instead, the seller merely has to have a written confirmation that the trade has been agreed to. “We consider sales happening on the trade date not on the settlement date,” Mr. Welsh, the fund manager at Oppenheimer, said.

But Mr. Tu contends that actually getting hold of cash through settlement is important in turbulent times. The exiting customers of a leveraged loan fund might want their money, but the fund might not be able to raise it in a timely manner in a market where settlement can take two weeks or more.

“The key thing really is the settlement,” he said.

And in a sign that the commission is thinking about the exact time it takes funds to pay their customers, Ms. White on Thursday said, “Of course, mutual funds must pay shareholders their redemption proceeds within seven days of any request.”

The mutual fund industry will now be waiting nervously for the results of the commission’s review.

Critics of leveraged loan funds say it makes sense to define an illiquid asset as any asset that does not complete settlement within seven days. If the agency were to adopt that definition after its review, many of the loan funds would most likely find that they had far more than 15 percent of their holdings in illiquid loans. And there may be precedent with the S.E.C. itself for that broader definition.

In a 1986 rule, the agency seemed to emphasize the need to actually receive timely payment in a definition of illiquid assets. It stated, “A security is considered illiquid if a fund cannot receive the amount at which it values the instrument within seven days.

>>> Danone confirms strategic priorities, says each core business, including nut

Danone confirms strategic priorities, says each core business, including nutrition, has role to play

Danone [EPA:BN] confirmed its 2014 targets including organic growth of over 4.5% and trading operating margin down less than 20 basis points like-for-like. Free cash-flow will be between EUR 1.3 and 1.4bn.

CEO Emmanuel Faber said: "When I was appointed in October, I shared with our 100,000 employees that there was no greater inspiration than our mission: bringing health through food to as many people as possible. As 2014 draws to an end, I want to re-emphasize that message and reiterate that each of our core businesses - Fresh Dairy Products, Waters, Early Life Nutrition and Medical Nutrition - has a role to play in living up to our mission and achieving the profitable, sustainable growth that is an integral part of our strategy."

Against this backdrop, Danone will continue to expand capacity rapidly and build development platforms in fast-growing regions, particularly Asia and Africa. Investments made for this purpose over the past two years have resulted in a higher use of debt than in the past, at a level that could imply a credit rating one notch lower, and that is appropriate for this current period of development given the company`s sound cash-flow outlook and debt structure.

To deploy this strategy and support the "Danone 2020" ambition, Emmanuel Faber has decided to strengthen his management team, announcing the following appointments that will take effect from January 1, 2015:

Gustavo Valle is appointed Executive Vice President Fresh Dairy Products. He is tasked with consolidating the division`s return to growth initiated by Thomas Kunz. After successfully leading the development of Danone`s Dairy business in Brazil and in the United States, Gustavo Valle was serving as Executive Vice President Europe.

Pierre-André Térisse is appointed Executive Vice President of the newly created Africa division. Over the past two years, Danone has consolidated existing positions and entered new markets on this continent, generating revenues of EUR1.2 billion. The company has set up this new multi-business structure to accelerate expansion in this strategic region. Since 2008, Pierre-André Térisse has served as the company`s CFO.

Cécile Cabanis is appointed to replace Pierre-André Térisse as CFO effective February 20, 2015. She joined Danone in 2004, and has served in a range of key positions in finance, including Corporate Finance Director, then head of Business Development. Since 2010, she has been Vice President Finance for the Fresh Dairy Products division.

The full announcement can be found here.

According to reports earlier in the week, on the agenda of Danone's board meeting on Thursday was the decision whether to proceed with a sale of the French group's medical nutrition unit to Germany-based Fresenius [FRA:FRE] or US-based Hospira [NYSE:HSP]. Danone was expected to push for a deal above EUR 3bn, and Fresenius -- which is bidding with Permira Advisers -- was the frontrunner, according to one report. As reported, Danone has been pondering whether to pursue an initial public offering for the unit while in talks regarding a sale. Both potential bidders have been named perviously in reports, in addition to Nestle and buyout firms.

WSJ : China Sets Up Fund to Bail Out Troubled Trust Firms

China Sets Up Fund to Bail Out Troubled Trust Firms
Fund Provides Safety Net As Risks Grow in China’s Shadow Banking Sector

BEIJING—China has set up a fund to bail out trust firms that run into trouble, putting a safety net under a major portion of the country’s fast-growing shadow banking sector which has played a big role in financing riskier areas of the economy.

The creation of the fund was announced by the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance on Friday, on the heels of a breakthrough deposit insurance scheme that will soon provide protection for bank deposits.

The regulators didn't say how big the trust fund would be but they said that all trust firms need to contribute, and that rules governing the fund were now in effect.

A new independent company would be formed to collect a fee from trust firms and manage the fund.

“Risks in the trust sector have emerged and they have been rising since the second half of 2013,” said the banking regulator in a separate statement on its website.

The regulator added that slower economic growth coupled with overcapacity problems in several key industries and a property slump have contributed to the rising risk.

China’s trust firms have expanded rapidly in the past few years, by taking money from investors and lending it out at higher interest rates than bank loans. They have become a key source of funding for small, private firms which typically have limited access to bank credit.

China’s trust assets reached 12.95 trillion yuan ($2.1 trillion) at the end of September, up 18.7% compared with the end of last year.

The People’s Bank of China last month announced a plan to insure deposits in the banking system which has long been assumed to have the backing of the state but has no explicit protection. Depositors at the nation’s banks will have insurance coverage for up to 500,000 yuan ($81,000) in a move that the central bank said would cover 99.7% of all depositors.

But regulators have been increasingly wary of the mounting risks from loans in the trust sector and have warned of the potential for bad debt.

Over the past two years, regulators have rolled out a number of regulations curbing business in the trust sector following several high-profile defaults on trust loans.

Under the new rules announced Friday, trust firms need to contribute 1% of their net assets to the fund and the payment will be adjusted annually based on the previous year’s assets. They also need to make additional contributions to the fund after they issue new trust products.

Trust companies can tap into the fund when they have a liquidity shortage, undergo bankruptcy proceedings, or are shut down on order by regulators, the statement said.

“The new rules will limit risks within the trust sector,” said Yin Xingmin, a trust expert and professor at Fudan University in Shanghai.

“It will prevent local governments and state companies from providing a ’cast iron’ guarantee for trust products that are unable to repay investors,” he said.

WSJ : Uber Gets Investment From Baidu

Uber Gets Investment From Baidu
Move by Chinese Internet Firm Could Help Uber’s Business in China

Chinese Internet giant Baidu Inc. will invest in ride-hailing app Uber Technologies Inc. in a move that will help the U.S. startup’s business in China, a person familiar with the matter said Friday.

Details of the investment amount weren’t immediately known.

Baidu said it is expected to announce an investment in a U.S. startup on Dec. 17, but didn’t provide further details.

For Baidu, the investment in Uber allows the Chinese Internet firm to better compete against rivals Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. in China’s rapidly growing market for transportation apps.

News of the investment was first reported by Chinese state media China National Radio.

Earlier this month, San Francisco-based Uber raised $1.2 billion in a new round of funding that valued the company at $41 billion.