Asian Mid-session Update: China speculated to cut 2015 GDP target; Australia to miss budget forecast in next week's MYEFO
***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA NOV RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 11.7% (1st sequential increase in 6 months) V 11.5%E; RETAIL SALES YTD Y/Y: 12.0% V 12.0%E
- (CN) CHINA NOV INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 7.2% (3-month low and 2nd worst level in 5 years) V 7.5%E; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YTD Y/Y: % V 8.3%E
- (CN) CHINA NOV YTD FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 15.8% V 15.8%E; 13-year low
- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT CREDIT CARD BALANCES: A$49.6B v A$49.4B PRIOR; CREDIT CARD PURCHASES: A$24.4B v A$23.9B PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND DEC ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 126.5 V 121.8 PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV BUSINESS MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.2 V 58.9 PRIOR; 4-month low
- (KR) South Korea Sept Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) 122.2, +0.2% m/m v +0.7% prior
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.50%, AS EXPECTED
***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +1.3%, S&P/ASX -0.1%, Kospi +0.3%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng +0.1%, Dec S&P500 -0.2% at 2,027
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold flat at $1,225, Jan crude oil -1.3% at $59.19/brl, Mar copper +0.3% at $2.92/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 1.0 tonnes to 725.8 tonnes; Highest level since Nov 7th; 3rd straight increase
- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Dec 10th: $4.49T v $4.49T prior; M1 y/y change: 8.9% v 8.8% w/w; M2 y/y change: 6.0% v 5.8% w/w
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 2.75% 2024 Bonds; avg yield: 2.918%; bid-to-cover: 2.58x
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥450B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥450B in 3-5yr JGB, ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point 6.1184 v 6.1153 prior setting (first weaker setting since Dec 5th)
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Shanghai Composite opened higher and traded up as much as 1%, but approaches the final hour of trade down marginally. November economic figures are mixed to negative - most notably, industrial production missed consensus by 0.3pct to mark the 2nd worst y/y rate of growth in 5 years. Silver lining in the industrial output is that power generation rose sequentially for the first time in 4 months. Fixed Asset investment is in line with consensus but still at a 13-year low, while retail sales showed a modest improvement. AUD/USD was little changed on China data release, trading at the top of its 40-pip range above $0.8270. Earlier in the session, local press speculated the govt will cuts its 2015 GDP target, having completed the Economic Work Council meeting. The extent of the cut will be unveiled at the next party plenum in March. Note that China lending data also remains on tap, with press reports anticipating a CNY650-700B range v CNY655Be.
- Australia mid-year economic and fiscal outlook (MYEFO) will be formally released on Monday, Dec 15th. Speaking ahead of that announcement, Treasurer Hockey warned that the budget deficit will be larger than expected and return to surplus take longer than expected. Hockey noted the underperformance was due to commodity price decline being larger than anticipated, even though fundamentally the economy is still strong and in a positive trajectory.
- US Pres Obama worked with the Republican majority in the House to push through the $1.1T govt spending bill, avoiding a potential shutdown and sending the legislation to the Senate. Most Democrats were concerned the bill eases bank regulations, even though 57 voted with the Majority in a close 219-206 vote.
***Equities***
US markets:
- ADBE: Reports Q4 $0.36 v $0.30e, R$1.07B v $1.06Be; To Acquire Fotolia for $800M in cash; acquisition not reflected in guidance; +8.1% afterhours
- EOX: Announces COO Change; Lowers 2015 CAPEX guidance to $62-81M from $210-240M; +5.5% afterhours
- PNM: New Mexico Utility unit files for electric rate increase, comprehensive rate restructuring; To raise customer bill by 7.7% on average; +1.2% afterhours
- ZQK: Reports Q4 -$0.29 v -$0.11e, R$400.7M v $427Me; -1.4% afterhours
- UTX: Guides initial FY15 EPS $7.00-7.20 v $7.32e, R$66-67B v $67.5Be; Affirms FY14 guidance - slides ahead of investor/analyst meeting; -1.5% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: SMS Management & Technology SMX.AU +4.2% (affirms guidance); DeNA 2432.JP +7.7% (analyst action)
- Industrials: China Railway Group 601390.CN +5.4%, China Communications Construction 601800.CN +2.0%, China Railway Erju 600528.CN +10.0% (China to accelerate transportation reforms); Boart Longyear BLY.AU -5.4% (FY14 guidance); Tsugami Corp 6101.JP +1.5% (to buyback shares); Nidec 6594.JP +4.0% (to acquire assets in Germany and China)
- Healthcare: Newtree Group 1323.HK -4.1% (H1 results)