WSJ : Richmond Fed’s Lacker Says October Rate Rise Possible

Richmond Fed’s Lacker Says October Rate Rise Possible
Believes policy makers could be convinced by Oct. 27-28 meeting that U.S. economy is strong enough to tolerate first rate increase in nearly a decade

The Federal Reserve could get enough new information by its late October policy meeting to spur officials to raise short-term interest rates then, Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

Mr. Lacker, who has tended to be skeptical of the Fed’s easy money policies, dissented at its September meeting because he wanted to raise rates then. He was outvoted by nine other officials on the central bank’s rate-setting committee who chose to hold rates steady until they had a better handle on the implications for the U.S. economy of market turbulence, a rising dollar and slow growth in China.

By the Oct. 27-28 meeting, Mr. Lacker said, the other officials could be convinced the U.S. economy is strong enough to tolerate a rate increase—the first in nearly a decade—despite these disturbances.

“I don’t see why not,” Mr. Lacker said. “We will have another labor market report. Presumably that will move us further toward labor market improvement.” The Labor Department will release September jobs data Friday.

Moreover, he added, the central bank will have more information on the strength of consumer spending. “It looks like consumers have continued to spend in August despite all of the turmoil and it seems like that is carrying over into September,” he said.

Strong consumer spending is central to his view that the Fed should move up its benchmark short-term rate, which has been near zero since December 2008.

Consumption has been up about 3.3% compared with a year earlier, an acceleration from spending growth below 2% in 2012 and early 2013. Mr. Lacker said that is an important sign of the economy’s underlying strength and the need for higher rates. Stronger consumer spending tends to be associated with higher inflation-adjusted interest rates, he noted. Rates now, when adjusted for inflation, are below zero.

“American consumers aren’t spooked. They’re not pulling back,” he said. “American businesses aren’t pulling back. We’re on track.”

Since the Fed’s policy meeting Sept. 16-17, officials including Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and New York Fed President William Dudley have warned they are likely to raise rates before year-end.

Still investors aren’t convinced the Fed will follow through. In futures markets traders attach just a 14% probability of a Fed move in October and a 41% probability of a move in December, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

“It could be they doubt our resolve,” Mr. Lacker said. “It should be that they don’t doubt our resolve.”

The Richmond Fed president said he is becoming worried the Fed is falling behind the curve. He likened the present moment to 1998. Back then the Fed cut rates in response to financial crises in Russia and Asia and waited several months before reversing those cuts. A technology bubble inflated and he said low rates might have played a role in fueling it. A prolonged period of low rates now could breed financial excess, he said.

“I do think that is a risk we need to take on board,” he said.

Mr. Lacker’s September dissent was his first this year. He said between July, when he agreed with the Fed’s decision to keep rates near zero, and September, he became more worried the central bank was falling behind the curve. He said he also worried the Fed could move too gradually once it gets started. If it waits too long or moves too gradually, he said, the Fed might need to move aggressively with quick rate increases down the road, which could end up destabilizing the financial system or the economy.

“I fear us getting stuck in a rut,” he said.

>>> Altice placed @ €17

Altice N.V. (Euronext: ATC, ATCB) today announces the successful placing of new Altice A and Altice B shares by way of an accelerated bookbuilding (the "Placing"). In total, the Placing comprised 69,997,600 Altice A shares (ticker: ATC NA) at a price of €17.00 per share and 24,825,602 Altice B shares (ticker: ATCB NA) at a price of €17.00 per share (together the "Placing Shares"), resulting in gross proceeds of approximately € 1.61 billion.

>>> the iPhone 6s and getting rid of roaming charges --> -ve Telco's

Apple's software king Eddy Cue on streaming battles, the iPhone 6s and getting rid of roaming charges

Jimi Famurewa meets the senior vice-president of Apple to talk about the company's shiny new launches

“Look, my mom is from Cuba, my dad is from Spain and I grew up in Miami,” says Eddy Cue with a playful smile. “So there’s maybe a little more flair in me than typical Silicon Valley types.”

Specifically, the senior vice-president of Apple, 51, is talking about his penchant for the extravagantly lined and patterned shirts that have made him the chief exponent of a dressing style internet wags are calling “Apple dad”. But you could apply that statement more generally to this 27-year-veteran of the Cupertino tech colossus. Cue, whether he’s discussing his Springsteen obsession or taking a few mid-interview selfies, is perhaps not what you’d expect from the dour tech executive. And he’s clearly not big on Zuckerbergian hoodies.

Cue’s flair and genial manner is in high demand at the moment. The day we meet in a penthouse-style room in Apple’s Hanover Street HQ (Boogie Nights shag-pile, tastefully adorned bookshelves), coincides with a frantically busy time for the company. The new iPhone 6s and 6s Plus handsets land in shops the next day (and will go on to sell in record global numbers — about 3,000 a minute), the iOS 9 system update has just launched (coinciding with an unfortunate malware attack on the App Store) and the revamped Apple Music Festival is well under way.

That final bit of activity, Apple’s autumn gig series in Camden featuring acts including Pharrell and Florence + The Machine, is the main reason for our chat today. The absence of The Boss on the line-up notwithstanding — “One of these years we’re gonna get him” — it’s fair to say Cue is pretty excited about the event. And its host city.

“The acts we get are really the best of the best,” he says, nodding to a nearby flatscreen that’s showing Ellie Goulding’s 2015 performance. “And you’re never going to see them in such a small, great venue like The Roundhouse. Also, the festival has gotten to be a much bigger thing globally. The London crowd is really good and I don’t think if you did this in New York or LA it would be as much of a global thing.”

International reach aside, the festival, which used to run under the iTunes banner, has clearly been engineered to provide a boost to Apple’s long-brewing music streaming service. Cue, who was the man Steve Jobs tasked with securing media partnerships for iTunes, has taken a lead role on Apple CEO Tim Cook’s Spotify-killer and spearheaded its march to more than 11 million users.

However, with the first batch of free three-month trials expiring this week, is he worried about subscribers drastically falling? “Ultimately, you never know until it happens,” he reasons. “But we’re pleased with the number of people who have tried. Everybody gets fixated on the short term but we’re in this for the long haul.”

This attitude seems to have been crystallised by those early years trying to convince the grand old superpowers of the record industry that the future of music was digital — “I have a lot of grey hairs because of that.”

Cue is, of course, a consummate salesman and conversation with him can occasionally feel like an extended appointment at the Genius Bar. He demos devices, wants to know if I’ve updated to iOS 9 and when I tell him in passing that my son is two years old, his mischievous response is, “Awesome. He’s ready for an iPad.”

There’s steel (or maybe brushed aluminium) behind the joking though. When I risk a ticking off/tranquilliser dart from the nearby publicist and stray off topic to ask about user complaints surrounding the iPhone’s undeletable apps, he’s friendly but firm. “A lot of our apps you can’t just delete because they’re embedded into the operating system,” he says.

Can customer feedback be something of a minefield? “There are things people can tell us and there are things they can’t,” he continues. “Both are really important but one of the dangers is to only do things people tell you to do. You would never do [new iPhone features] Live Photos or 3D Touch if you only listened to people. To innovate you have to look beyond. We used to say that we get paid to look around corners.”

In terms of Apple Music and its showpiece festival, Cue wants the view around the corner to remain obscured. “Will it be the same next year? I hope not. I hope we keep evolving and coming up with cool things.”

Our time comes to an end but Cue isn’t about to let me leave. He wants to show me footage of soulful warm-up act, Andra Day’s Apple Music Festival set and, in defiance of that publicist, walk me through how they’ve retooled Siri on the new iPhone (“I know I’m not allowed to talk about the phone but what the hell — he can’t fire me”).

He taps his phone and makes an offhand comment about “trying not to get roaming charges” while in London which, I note, proves how insanely expensive phone calls and data can be abroad. “It’s sad, it’s another problem,” says Cue. “We’re trying to fix it and we’re making a little bit of progress but you’ve got to convince a lot of people.” It sounds like an impossible task. But that, you would imagine, is where the famous flair will come in.

>>> K+S board offered incentives to come to negotiating table - FAZ

K+S board offered incentives to come to negotiating table - FAZ
Story
Potash, the Canadian potash group, has offered incentives to the board of German potash group K+S to come to the negotiating table, Frankfurter Allgemeine reported. The German daily said it had learned from Uwe Rathausky, Chief of Universal-Investment fund advisors Gané, that following consultation with institutional investors Potash sent the K+S management a list of concessions it is prepared to make. Potash would allow the K+S board members to keep their jobs and enjoy a pay raise. K+S would also gain two seats on the Potash executive committee, the report continued. Potash has also offered to establish an "Excellence Center" in Germany, and would also permit K+S keeping its current legal form for a period of five years.

Other incentives include the continuation of training programs and retaining Kassel as K+S's headquarters for five years, the report stated.

The German daily calculated the K+S board would be entitled to compensation amounting to EUR 13.4m in the event of a takeover.

Rathausky's information was confirmed by other sources who wished to remain anonymous. Both Potash and K+S declined to comment.

The Universal-Investment fund holds 0.4% in K+S and has urged K+S to meet the Potash management, the report stated.