(Le Nouvel Obs) Scénario catastrophe : la Troisième Guerre mondiale a peut-être

Scénario catastrophe : la Troisième Guerre mondiale a peut-être commencé aujourd'hui

Deux évènements se sont produits, l'un à Moscou, l'autre dans le Golfe, qui pourraient être les déclics d'un affrontement généralisé.

L'Histoire retiendra peut-être, à Dieu ne plaise, que le troisième conflit mondial a débuté, à bas bruit, mercredi 30 septembre 2015.

En 1914, tout a commencé un 28 juin par l'assassinat à Sarajevo de l'archiduc d'Autriche. A l'époque, évidemment, personne n'avait imaginé que cet attentat, perpétré loin des grandes capitales, allait conduire à la boucherie de la Grande Guerre. C'est le jeu des alliances et l'irresponsabilité des "somnambules" qui gouvernaient alors les grandes puissances qui ont entraîné le monde vers l'abîme.

Pourquoi une comparaison avec aujourd'hui ? On a appris, ce 30 septembre, deux nouvelles apparemment peu graves mais qui, combinées, pourraient être la double étincelle d'une déflagration que beaucoup redoutent depuis quelque temps. De quoi s'agit-il ?

1 Iran-Arabie, le ton monte très vite

D'abord, l'Arabie saoudite aurait arraisonné aujourd'hui deux navires battant pavillon de son ennemi intime, l'Iran. Les bateaux étaient, semble-t-il, remplis d'armes à destination des rebelles outhistes du Yémen que Riyad combat militairement. Cet arraisonnement est à l'évidence un acte hostile, si ce n'est de guerre.

Il se produit dans une atmosphère particulièrement tendue entre les deux pôles de l'Islam. Téhéran a violemment reproché aux Saoud, gardiens autoproclamés des Lieux Saints, de ne pas assurer la sécurité de base des pèlerins à la Mecque. Une accusation gravissime en ces périodes d'affrontements entre Chiites et Sunnites.

2Poutine est entré en guerre en Syrie

Ce n'est pas tout. Ce mercredi 30 septembre, Vladimir Poutine a fait voter par son parlement fantoche une loi l'autorisant à mener une opération armée en Syrie. Son aviation a déjà commencé à bombarder à Homs. Or, on sait que, sur le terrain, les Russes seront alliés au régime de Bachar et, surtout, aux Iraniens. Tandis qu'en face, Occidentaux et pays sunnites du Golfe mènent leurs propres opérations.

Les deux coalitions, qui ont, sur plusieurs points, des objectifs totalement opposés, risquent de se retrouver face à face. Il semble, d'ailleurs, que les bombardements russes de ce jour aient déjà touché une position de rebelles soutenus par les Etats-Unis - une information qui n'est pas encore confirmée.

Hubris et bras de fer

Quoi qu'il en soit, la crainte est donc de voir le Kremlin, tout à son affirmation extérieure pour faire oublier la déroute économique interne, et Téhéran, pris par l'hubris qui a suivi l'accord nucléaire de juillet, de tester au maximum la volonté de l'autre camp. Et de voir les Saoudiens, effrayés par la montée de l'ennemi mortel chiite, entraîner ses alliés, dont la France, dans un bras de fer sans fin, qui pourrait gravement dégénérer.

Évidemment, ce scénario catastrophe n'est pas sûr. Il n'est pas écrit que les gouvernants actuels soient des "somnambules", qu'ils n'empêcheront pas le conflit militaire de s'étendre au delà de la Syrie et de l'Irak. Mais certains acteurs de cette partie sont tellement à cran qu'on ne peut l'exclure tout à fait.

>>> US Close Dow+1.47% S&P+1.91% Nasdaq+2.28% Russell+1.55%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks End Woeful Quarter on Higher Note

The stock market ended the midweek session on a higher note, but could not avoid its second consecutive monthly decline. The S&P 500 gained 1.9% on Wednesday, but surrendered 2.7% in September. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+2.3%) outperformed today, but lost 3.3% for the month.

The Wednesday session also marked the end of the third quarter, during which the S&P 500 fell 6.9% versus a 7.4% decline in the Nasdaq. The end of Q3 meant that quarter-end positioning and portfolio rebalancing likely played a part in today's advance.

Equity indices began the trading day with solid gains after index futures rallied alongside markets in Europe. The S&P 500 built on its opening spike, notching a session high just before 10:30 ET; however, that move was followed by a pullback into the middle of today's trading range, which occurred alongside rally in the yen that briefly dropped the dollar/yen pair below the 120.00 level.

The short-lived swoon in the dollar/yen pair was followed by a rebound into the 120.00 area while stocks climbed to new highs.

All ten sectors finished the day with gains, paced by a 2.7% spike in the consumer discretionary space. The cyclical sector held the lead throughout the session while four of the remaining nine groups added 2.0% or more. Notably, the health care sector (+2.1%) spent the day among the leaders with biotechnology underpinning the strength. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 303.33, +13.85) surged 4.8%, narrowing its September loss to 11.3%. For its part, the health care sector lost 5.8% in September.

Today's relative strength in biotechnology helped the Nasdaq spend the day ahead of the broader market. To be fair, the index received another helping hand from large cap tech names with the likes of Google (GOOGL 637.20, +14.59), Microsoft (MSFT 44.20, +0.76), and Facebook (FB 89.73, +3.06) gaining between 1.8% and 3.5%. Chipmakers also showed considerable strength with the PHLX Semiconductor Index surging 3.8% after EZchip (EZCH 25.16, +3.17) agreed to be acquired by Mellanox (MLNX 37.79, -2.00) for $25.50/share.

In other sector news, Western Digital (WDC 79.40, +10.53) surged 15.3% after Unisplendour made a $3.78 billion investment in WDC by acquiring newly issued shares at $92.50/share.

On the earnings front, Barracuda Networks (CUDA 15.58, -7.97) plunged 33.8% after cautious guidance overshadowed a one-cent beat.

Treasuries slumped overnight, but they began rallying around 7:00 ET with the move continuing into the afternoon. As a result, the 10-yr note reclaimed its overnight loss with the benchmark yield ending flat at 2.05%.

Today's participation was well above average as more than a billion shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data reported today included ADP Employment, Chicago PMI, and MBA Mortgage Index:

  • The ADP National Employment Report revealed that employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose by 200K in September, which was in line with the consensus
    • The August reading was revised down to 186,000 from 190,000
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Index fell 6.7% to follow last week's 13.9% spike
  • The Chicago PMI dropped to 48.7 in September from 54.4 in August while the Consensus expected a decline to 52.9
    • The reading highlights this year's volatility in the survey as monthly contractions (five times) have occurred more regularly than expansions (four times) so far in 2015
    • The Production Index dropped to 43.6 from 59.0 in August, representing the lowest reading since July 2009 and the biggest one-month decline since February

Tomorrow, weekly Initial Claims (consensus 270K) will be released at 8:30 ET while August Construction Spending (consensus 0.5%) and September ISM Index (consensus 50.6) will both be reported at 10:00 ET.

  • Nasdaq Composite -2.5% YTD
  • S&P 500 -6.8% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -8.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -8.6% YTD

FT : Big US hedge funds hit hard by Valeant sell-off

Big US hedge funds hit hard by Valeant sell-off

Three of the US’s biggest hedge funds have suffered billions of dollars in losses from their portfolios thanks to a sharp sell-off in the shares of Valeant Pharmaceuticals.
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square, Jeff Ubben’s ValueAct, and John Paulson’s Paulson & Co have been hit hard this week because of their concentrated bets on Valeant, with Mr Ackman holding 30 per cent of his fund in the pharmaceutical company’s shares.

Valeant shares fell a further 5 per cent on Tuesday, adding to a 16.5 per cent plunge on Monday, as investors took fright after Democrat politicians called for a subpoena to force the company to hand over documents relating to “massive price hikes” for its drugs.
One US-based investor in hedge funds said: “Large, focused bets on single companies can lead to huge returns for managers when they go well, but destroy years of gains when they go wrong. It is always a risky strategy no matter how much of an edge a hedge fund thinks it has”.
According to US regulatory filings Mr Ackman held $4.3bn of Valeant stock at the end of June, implying the 39 per cent fall in Valeant shares since their August peak has cost his Pershing Square fund as much as $1.6bn.
Pershing Square started building its Valeant position in the first quarter of this year, with the company’s shares priced roughly where they are now at that point.
As of the middle of last month Pershing Square was narrowly down for the year, losing 0.2 per cent, according to data compiled by HSBC before the sharp fall in Valeant shares.
Other hedge funds with large chunks of their portfolios invested in Valeant include the Tiger Cub fund Tiger Ratan, and Brave Warrior Advisors, both of which held over a fifth of their assets in its shares as of the most recent US filings.
Mr Ackman has been a vocal advocate of Valeant, whose takeover-fuelled growth has attracted criticism from some other hedge fund managers such as the short seller Jim Chanos, who has argued these deals mask a lack of organic growth. Mr Ackman has defended the company, comparing Valeant to Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.
Pershing Square was last year one of the best-performing large hedge funds in the world, gaining almost 40 per cent as it benefited from its large, concentrated bets on companies such as Allergan, which Mr Ackman had tried unsuccessfully to force to sell itself to Valeant.
Mr Ubben’s ValueAct accumulated its Valeant stake in 2006 at a far lower cost, meaning even with the recent sell-off it has made many times its initial investment. Mr Ubben joined Valeant’s board last year, and ValueAct has held a seat since 2007.
Paulson & Co had 2.6 per cent stake of the pharma company worth $2bn at the end of June, according to the most recent US filing.
A number of high-profile Wall Street hedge funds are suffering from their big focused bets on specific stocks going awry. David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital was down 14 per cent at the end of last month.

RTR - EMC executive says breaking up company would be wrong thing to do

EMC executive says breaking up company would be wrong thing to do / / http://reut.rs/1RfTxdF


EMC Corp (EMC.N), the data storage company targeted by activist hedge fund Elliott Management, should not be broken up because there are real revenue synergies that would be put at risk, one of its top executives said on Tuesday.

"We strongly believe breaking up is the wrong thing to do. We think having a better federation is the right way to create value," David Goulden, Chief Executive of EMC Information Infrastructure, the company's biggest division, told the Code/Enterprise Series conference in New York.

Elliott has been pressuring EMC to sell its stake in virtualization software maker VMware (VMW.N). A standstill agreement between Elliott and EMC was due to expire this month.

"We will continue to have an active dialogue with Elliott, as we do all of our shareholders," said Goulden.
EMC Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Joe Tucci is nearing retirement but has yet to specify the time of his departure. Commenting on the possibility of succeeding Tucci, Goulden said: "I love my job, it is the best one I have had. Beyond that, you will have to ask the board how they manage the process."

WSJ Blog - Tiger Cubs Target Royal Mail

A brace of U.S. hedge funds with links to legendary hedge fund manager Julian Robertson have built a short position in Royal Mail, the parcel deliverer part owned by the U.K. government.

Blue Ridge Capital, launched in 1996 by ‘Tiger Cub’ John Griffin, currently has a short of position worth around £34 million ($51.3 million) in Royal Mail. Blue Ridge first declared a short of 0.63% on Sept. 24. The following day it upped it to 0.75%. If a hedge fund has a short position of over 0.5% in a company’s stock, it has to declare it to the U.K. regulator.

Mr. Griffin is a protégé of Mr. Robertson, who founded Tiger Management, one of the earliest hedge funds, in 1980.

Alongside Blue Ridge is Emerging Sovereign Group, a New York-based hedge fund founded by a trio of former Morgan Stanley traders with seed capital from Mr. Robertson. The fund, majority owned by private equity giant Carlyle Group, has a short position in Royal Mail of 0.53%.

The fund declared the position on Sept. 14.
The short positions come at an interesting time for Royal Mail. The parcel deliverer hired Rothschild in June to advise the government on how to offload its then 30% stake.

At the time, Finance Minister George Osborne said there was “no reason” why the government needed to continue holding a minority stake in Royal Mail, and added a sale was timetabled for the end of the financial year.

Rothschild quickly orchestrated a 15% sell-down in mid-June at £5 a share.

Royal Mail’s share price is currently trading at £4.57, some 43.9% up from its controversial IPO price in 2013, but 9% below its June sell down price.

Although Royal Mail is being targeted by a brace of hedge funds, the company is backed by some high profile names.

Its largest investor, not including the U.K. government, is Woodford Investment Management, which has steadily built a 5% holding over the past year. Norges Bank Investment Management and the Singapore sovereign wealth fund are also major investors.

Royal Mail declined to comment. Blue Ridge could not be reached for comment. Carlyle did not respond to requests for comment.