ValueAct discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New ADS Stake, Liquidated HAL stake
Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:
- New positions in: ADS (~0.5 mln shares)
- Decreased positions in: ADBE (to ~6k shares from ~14 mln shares), AGU (to ~3.2 mln from ~10 mln), MSI (to ~8.2 mln from ~17.6 mln), MSCI (to ~4.1 mln from ~6.3 mln)
- Closed positions in: HAL (from ~16.5 mln shares)
Paulson discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: new position in ATVI, BEAV, ODP; closed position in ABBV
Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:
- New positions in: ATVI (~3.1 mln shares), ACAS (~4 mln), ALXN (~0.2 mln), BEAV (~3 mln), BXLT (~0.1 mln), ODP (~7.8 mln)
- Increased positions in: AKRX (to ~9.3 mln shares from ~2.9 mln shares), ENDP (to ~9.5 mln from ~3.3 mln), DVAX (to ~0.2 mln from ~0.1 mln), DWRE (to ~0.3 mln from ~0.1 mln), ETSY (to ~1.5 mln from ~0.4 mln), PFE (to ~1.4 mln from ~0.6 mln)
- Decreased positions in: AU (to ~15.2 mln shares from ~22.9 mln shares), HOT (to ~5.5 mln from ~11.6 mln), TWC (to ~1.8 mln from ~5.9 mln)
- Closed positions in: ABBV (from ~0.1 mln shares), GMED (from ~0.1 mln), OUT (from ~4.3 mln), PMC (from ~0.5 mln)
Budget : l'Etat actionnaire face à un besoin de financement historique
L'Etat doit mobiliser environ 7 milliards d'euros pour venir en aide au secteur de l'énergie.
Le commissaire aux participations de l'Etat, Martin Vial, explique aux « Echos » comment il pense trouver les ressources.
C'est l'année de tous les dangers pour l'Etat actionnaire. L'Agence des participations de l'Etat (APE) va devoir mobiliser environ 7 milliards d'euros pour venir en aide au secteur de l'énergie. Près de 4 milliards d'euros seront nécessaires pour financer la recapitalisation d' Areva, un montant qui pourra évoluer en fonction de la participation d'un partenaire étranger au tour de table. Il faudra en outre débloquer 3 milliards pour l'augmentation de capital d' EDF, sachant que les deux opérations devraient avoir lieu fin 2016 ou début 2017. En plus de ces interventions se pose la question d'un transfert de la participation de la Bpi dans Orange (9,6 % valorisés 3,8 milliards) que la banque publique ne pourra plus conserver du fait des contraintes réglementaires.
« La situation actuelle est singulière mais pas inédite, et nous sommes là pour y faire face », assure le commissaire aux participations de l'Etat, Martin Vial, visiblement imperturbable. La dernière intervention de cette ampleur remonte à 2002, lors du sauvetage de France Télécom après le rachat d'Orange, qui avait nécessité de débloquer en urgence 9 milliards d'euros d'argent public. Pendant la crise du secteur automobile, l'Etat est également venu en aide à Renault et à PSA, mais par le biais d'un prêt de 6 milliards d'euros et non de fonds propres.
Pour régler la facture de l'énergie, l'Agence des participations de l'Etat promet des cessions. Car le compte d'affectation spéciale, qui retrace les flux d'investissements et de sortie, ne peut pas être en déficit. Et l'APE exclut pour l'instant toute contribution du budget général. Tout au plus pourra-t-elle puiser dans une réserve de 2,4 milliards d'euros accumulée au fil des opérations les années passées.
Exercice d'équilibriste
C'est donc à un véritable exercice d'équilibriste que l'Etat actionnaire doit se livrer, d'autant que son portefeuille coté a vu sa valorisation tomber à 60 milliards d'euros, contre plus de 80 milliards il y a un an. La privatisation des aéroports de Nice et de Lyon est engagée. Leur valorisation est estimée entre 2,5 et 3 milliards d'euros, un montant que l'APE ne souhaite pas commenter. Pour le reste du portefeuille, l'équation n'est pas évidente. Dans certaines entreprises, l'Etat ne peut pas légalement descendre en dessous d'un certain seuil (70 % chez EDF, 50 % chez ADP et 33 % chez Engie). « A ma connaissance, le gouvernement n'envisage pas de faire évoluer ces seuils législatifs », indique Martin Vial. L'Etat souhaite par ailleurs conserver sa participation dans Orange. Il a toujours dit qu'il céderait les titres acquis chez Renault en 2015 pour sécuriser les droits de vote doubles, mais le titre n'a toujours pas retrouvé le niveau de l'époque. Finalement, la participation que l'Etat pourrait le mieux valoriser est PSA : les 800 millions investis en 2014 valent aujourd'hui plus de 1,5 milliard. Sauf que l'Etat perdrait toute capacité d'influence si le constructeur participait à la consolidation du secteur. Un nouveau dilemme en perspective.
Asian Market Update: AUD rallies as RBA minutes show central bank on the fence about last cut; Abe defers decision on sales tax hike
***Economic Data***
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q2 2-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATION SURVEY Q/Q: 1.64% V 1.63% PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA APR NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES M/M: -2.5% v 2.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: +2.4% v 4.2% PRIOR
- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 115.1 v 113.9 prior
- (SG) SINGAPORE APR ELECTRONIC EXPORTS Y/Y: -7.4% V -5.8%E; NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS M/M: 4.5% v 4.4%E; Y/Y: -7.9% V -8.4%E
***Index Snapshot (as of 04:00 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.9%, S&P/ASX +0.7%, Kospi -0.1%, Shanghai Composite -0.4%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Jun S&P500 flat at 2,061
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- June gold +0.4% at $1,279/oz, June crude oil +1.0% at $48.19/brl, Jul copper +0.2% at $2.09/lb
- (CA) Alberta, Canada fire officials: Wildfire burning 15-20km south of Oil Sand facilities - financial press
- JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.18T in 0.1% (0.1% prior) 5-year JGBs; Avg yield: -0.225% v -0.226% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.15x v 4.36x prior
- (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.5200 V 6.5343 PRIOR; First stronger Yuan setting in 3 days
- (CN) PBOC to inject CNY50B in 7-day reverse repos
***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Asian equity markets march higher for the 2nd straight session, tracking the rally on Wall St and continued strength in the oil patch. WTI is up another 1% in electronic session to top $48/brl with Canadian wildfires reported to draw as close at 20km from the Oil Sands facilities, forcing evacuation of large number of workers while adding to supply concerns. In FX majors, AUD/USD is most active with an 80pip spike after less dovish than expected RBA meeting minutes. GBP/USD also saw a notable 90pip jump toward $1.45, with the latest Telegraph poll showing a widening support for UK to remain in the EU at 55% vs 40% in favor of Brexit. USD/JPY traded in a 20pips range around ¥109.
- After this month's surprise rate cut to record low 1.75% due to low inflation and slower global growth, RBA meeting minutes revealed the decision to be a very close call, as members also considered awaiting more data before acting. Minutes indicated that there has not been a material change in the outlook for economic activity or the unemployment rate, but the outlook for inflation had been revised lower. RBA was also optimistic that China policy support would address that economy's slowdown. The yield on Australia's 3-year bond rose over 3bps to a 1-week low, AUD/USD spiked up above $0.7360, and S&P/ASX slightly pared its opening gains.
- Also of note down under, New Zealand's 2-year inflation expectations remained around the 22-year low just above 1.63%, but 1-year expectations rose to 1.22% v 1.09% prior. Still, NZD/USD came in 25pips on the release toward $0.68, as RBNZ survey also revised its forecast for end of quarter 90-day bill rate to 2.27% v 2.62% prior - a material decline suggesting expectations for more easing.
- Japan govt also straddled both sides of the fence regarding recent Nikkei speculation about a delay to the sales tax hike. Econ Min Ishihara noted the rumors were not true, and no special instructions from PM Abe were received. To that end, Abe said the decision would be made at a appropriate time after consultation with experts, though he was still leaning in favor of the increase unless there is a "serious event" in the economy.
- Among notable Chinese press reports, Stats Bureau official said industrial economy and fixed asset investment growth will be stable. Separately, govt was reportedly planning to announce new rules on stock trading halts as soon as next week, making it difficult for companies to pose as though M&A activity is in the works only to drive up the stock price.
***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- AYA: Reports Q1 $0.43 v $0.36e, R$288.7M v $277Me; review of strategic alternatives remains ongoing; +11.0% afterhours
- A: Reports Q2 $0.44 v $0.39e, R$1.02B v $989Me; +3.6% afterhours
- P: Shareholder Corvex Management held talks with company and 3rd parties about strategic options - financial press; +3.5% afterhours
- WNRL: Announces 3.8M offering of common units (15% of shares outstanding); -5.8% afterhours
- RLYP: Discusses Veltassa prescription trends - filing; -6.6% afterhours
- CLX: Raises dividend 4% to $0.80 from $0.77 (implied yield 2.4%)
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Air China 753.HK +2.0% (Apr result); Lotte Confectionery 004990.KR -89.4% (stock split); Dentsu 4324.JP -0.7% (Q1 result, cuts guidance); Morinaga Milk Industry Co. 2264.JP +0.5% (FY15/16 result); Dulux Group DLX.AU -2.6% (H1 result)
- Financials: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group 8306.JP +1.1% (FY15/16 result, share buyback); Sony Financial 8729.JP -4.4% (FY15/16 result); Mitsubishi UFJ Lease & Finance Co 8593.JP -0.4% (FY15/16 result); OzForex Group OFX.AU -3.5% (FY16 result); ANZ Bank ANZ.AU +0.7% (job cut speculation)
- Industrials: Japan Steel Works 5631.JP -7.0% (FY15/16 result); Hyundai Merchant 011200.KR +6.6% (Q1 result)
- Technology: Kyocera Corp 6971.JP -0.1% (merger speculation)
- Energy: Infigen Energy IFN.AU +2.6% (to explore strategic options)
- Materials: Posco 005490.KR -2.9% (Nippon Steel to sell stake in Posco)
After Hours Summary: GALT +19% following 'positive' interim clinical data; LC -8% after disclosing receipt of a grand jury subpoena from the DOJAfter Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: KGJI +9%, AYA +5.9%, A +3.6%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: GALT +19.2% (announces 'positive' interim results from Phase 2a clinical trial with GR-MD-02), P +4.2% (Corvex Management discloses 9.95% active stake; issues letter to shareholders), VRX +2.2% (updates on regulator matters; continues to expect to make the Canadian Required Filings on or before June 10, 2016)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: AEGR -13.4%, VOXX -7.9%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: LC -8.1% (discloses in 10Q receipt of a grand jury subpoena from the DOJ), RLYP -6.5% (discloses new patient starts, outpatient prescriptions and units sold to hospitals/other institutions for April for Veltassa), WNRL -5.8% (announces 3.75 mln registered underwritten public offering of common units), BETR -4.5% (commences 10 mln common stock offering by selling stockholders), WWE -3.7% (Vincent K. McMahon 2013 Irrev. Trust sells 2,191,894 shares in block trade), STOR-3.1% (commences 9.5 mln common stock follw-on offering), WBA -1.8% (CNBC'c David Faber: 'Goldman selling 6m shares of $WBA at $77.65 for top ten holder. 1.5% discount to close.'), BECN -1.5% (commences ~8.5 mln common stock offering by selling stockholder CD&R Roadhouse Holdings, L.P., an entity affiliated with Clayton, Dubilier & Rice)
With Buffett Betting Big, Is Apple’s Stock a Buy?
With Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway buying $1 billion in stock, see what the charts recommend.
What a difference a weekend made. Apple (ticker: AAPL) suffered a technical breakdown last Thursday but jumped Monday. The problem is that a one-day rebound in the context of a 30% decline since last July does not make for a reversal. The stock may be ready for a technical bounce but the trend is still down.
News that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) took a billion dollar stake in Apple sent shares up more than 3% Monday to put it marginally back above former chart support. (The Wall Street Journal reports that Buffett himself did not select the stock - one of his lieutenants did.)
On the opposite side, investor Carl Icahn recently disclosed that he trimmed his stake in February, coincidently near the time Buffett bought. Interestingly, Apple’s price is now about where it was at that time.
The chart below shows Apple dropping below support in the $92.15 area last week (see Chart 1). We can trace that level back to the early 2016 lows, the bottom of the flash crash last summer and the April 2012 peak (Apple traded at $93.79 Monday afternoon). It also shows a drop below the 50% retracement level of the big rally from April 2013 through the February 2015 high, based on daily close data.
It is not unusual to see stocks bounce off these levels and also off Fibonacci retracement levels, although the latter is a bit of a controversial topic among technical analysts. However, Apple shows that it did respect the important 38.2% retracement level last summer with a significant upside bounce. And earlier this year, it found its footing at the 50% mark to enjoy another upside bounce.
Therefore, given the new excitement surrounding the stock thanks to Mr. Buffett, it would not be a surprise to see it bounce again here. After all, momentum indicators such as the relative strength index (RSI) are indeed at oversold levels. Even the relative performance chart vs. the Standard & Poor’s 500 appears to have fallen too far, too fast arguably leaving it in need of a bit of a rebound, too.
But if we look at the trend from a very significant bearish reversal made in July 2015 after the company disappointed on earnings we will see it is rather solid to the downside. That leaves plenty of bouncing room once again without putting it in jeopardy.
However, there are a few other technical resistance levels a little closer overhead that could prevent that bounce from completing. One is the 50-day average, now in the $103-area. The second and likely more important is the gap left on the chart April 27 after Apple once again disappointed on the earnings front.
A gap is an area on the chart where there is no trading due to extreme imbalances in supply and demand during the off-hours period. Price cannot smoothly move and must jump from one level to the next to bring trading back into equilibrium.
More importantly, the gap serves as a resistance level as investors who did not sell immediately after the gap get their second chance as prices come back up to that level.
In a related story, the day after the gap, Icahn dumped the remainder of his Apple shares.
Unless Apple stock follows through on Monday’s gains and can move through the gap and the 50-day average it will remain very “heavy” with good odds it will make a new low. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2013-2015 rally in the $85.40 area is a good place to look for buyers to come back in.
The bottom line is that despite the news concerning investing titans, earnings have disappointed more than once and the major trend is still to the downside. This is a big ship and it will take a good deal of effort to turn it around, which on the charts means a longer period of healing and base building.
Lone Pine discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: new positions in AGN, BXLT, MNST; closed positions in TAP, VRX
Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:
- New positions in: AGN (~1.8 mln shares), BXLT (~10.6 mln), COMM (~0.9 mln), MNST (~1.1 mln), PYPL (~10.4 mln), YUM (~1.5 mln)
- Increased positions in: NOC (to ~3.2 mln shares from ~2.1 mln shares)
- Decreased positions in: PXD (to ~1.3 mln shares from ~2.4 mln shares), V (to ~7.5 mln from ~12.8 mln)
- Closed positions in: HBI (from ~9.3 mln shares), TAP (from ~2.4 mln), VRX (from ~5.8 mln), WMB (from ~28.9 mln)
Highfields Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Initiates new positions in MAR, PFE, & BXLT; increases positions in HTZ, WMB, & VER; closes positions in MSFT, YHOO, & PYPL
Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:
- New positions in: MAR (~6.9 mln shares), PFE (~5.9 mln), BXLT (~3.9 mln), PEP (~2 mln), CL (~1.9 mln)
- Increased positions in: HTZ (to ~10 mln shares from ~7.1 mln shares), WMB (to ~18.9 mln from ~6.9 mln), VER (to ~11.5 mln from ~6.5 mln), WBA (to ~4.4 mln from ~1.6 mln), IAC (to ~5.1 mln from ~2.6 mln)
- Decreased positions in: MCD (to ~4.8 mln shares from ~11.9 mln shares), DD (to ~8.7 mln from ~12.6 mln), APC (to ~1.1 mln from ~3.8 mln), YPF (to ~0.1 mln from ~2.6 mln), HOT (to ~2.3 mln from ~4.5 mln)
- Closed positions in: MSFT (from ~12.8 mln shares), YHOO (from ~7.2 mln), PYPL (from ~3.6 mln), SPGI (from ~2.8 mln), ENB (from ~2.3 mln)
Pershing Square discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing (Recall that most of these are well known by now)
Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:
- New positions in: NOMD (~33.3 mln shares)
- Increased positions in: VRX (to ~21.6 mln shares from ~16.6 mln shares)
- Decreased positions in: APD (to ~7.6 mln shares from ~20.5 mln shares), MDLZ (to ~22.9 mln from ~43.4 mln)