>>> Yadkin sale may be on 2017 horizon, bankers say

Yadkin sale may be on 2017 horizon, bankers say
* Possible asking price is USD 30 a share
* Numerous potential buyers

Yadkin Financial (NYSE:YDKN), North Carolina’s largest community bank, may be in a position to sell once it integrates its recent acquisition of NewBridge Bancorp, said two industry bankers and an analyst.

Among reasons they cited are the bank's attractive North Carolina footprint, a shrinking number of area targets and a possible exit by its private equity investors.

The Raleigh-based institution reached USD 7.4bn of assets when its USD 450m stock deal with NewBridge closed on 1 March.

An industry banker noted Yadkin has now reached critical mass with its acquisitions and has been cutting costs. CEO Scott Custer, who has rolled up six banks during his tenure, is good at buying companies but may want to sell as those opportunities dry up, this banker said. Yadkin is also approaching USD 10bn in assets, where higher regulatory costs kick in, the banker added.

Stephen Scouten, an analyst with Sandler O’Neill, said he thinks Yadkin would sell if a suitor offered at least USD 30 a share. That price would reflect more than 2.2x times tangible book, a level recently seen in only a few Florida deals.

“Maybe they have to integrate NewBridge first and clean it up for someone to want to offer them the right price in their mind,” Scouten said. “It could be a 2017 event. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if you saw something between now and September before they do the (systems) conversion with NewBridge.“

Scouten noted that Yadkin has two private equity investors, Stone Point Capital and Lightyear Capital, who may be interested in an exit. Both invested in Piedmont Community Bank Holdings in September 2009 and received Yadkin shares in July 2014 when the two banks combined in a merger of equals, according to SEC filings.

Both firms have representatives on Yadkin’s board although each now has less than a 5% stake.

Yadkin’s top executives would see a large payday from a rabbi trust in the event of a “change in control.” The trust, set up in connection with the Piedmont deal, will otherwise vest at the end of 2018.

A second industry banker said it would be highly unusual for Yadkin to sell so soon after the NewBridge deal, which almost doubled the institution’s size.

Such a deal would raise red flags and most buyers would prefer to see Yadkin extract the synergies promised when the deal was announced, this banker said. A sale might eventually happen as Yadkin contemplates the USD 10bn asset mark, he said.

Jeff Davis, a managing director with Mercer Capital, agreed. While North Carolina’s thriving markets make Yadkin an appealing target, he said it’s more likely that Yadkin “let’s the dust settle” for a year with the NewBridge acquisition and then makes one more acquisition before selling itself.

Yadkin is an “acquirer of choice” for many community banks, who would take Yadkin stock in the hope of getting a “double dip” when Yadkin eventually sells, Davis said.

With top positions in North Carolina's top four metro markets, Custer recently said Yadkin is happy with its current situation. “I don’t know that we have to go do a lot more acquiring to realize the benefits of scale that we have today,” he said at the Gulf South Bank Conference in New Orleans on 3 May. He said Yadkin will probably spend the rest of 2016 “getting NewBridge right.”

Yadkin did not respond to subsequent requests for comment on the possibility of a sale.

The first banker said there are only a handful of buyers that would be able to pay the price Yadkin probably wants and have a multiple that would not be dilutive to their own shares. Bank of the Ozarks (NASDAQ:OZRK), United Community Banks (NASDAQ:UCBI) and IberiaBank (NASDAQ:IBKC) are potential contenders, the first banker said.

United has been actively acquiring in South Carolina and has a small North Carolina presence, and Yadkin would fit the focus outside of its home state of Georgia, the first banker said. Iberia, he added, has traditionally been a deep South bank and may want to increase its limited presence in the Carolinas.

In January, BNC Bancorp (NASDAQ:BNCN) CEO Rick Callicutt said he looked at a deal with Yadkin, which was slightly smaller than it at the time, but decided it was not the right transaction.

Scouten said he thinks buyers could include South Carolina-based South State (NASDAQ:SSB) and Memphis-based First Horizon National (NYSE:FHN), with Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB) a possibility as well.

Davis agreed that South State is a good candidate. He also said a possible merger with Charlotte, North Carolina-based Park Sterling (NASDAQ:PSTB), which is smaller than Yadkin, would be interesting. Such a combination would beef up the bank’s presence in Charlotte and add Richmond to the mix.

Yadkin used Keefe Bruyette & Woods as its financial advisor on NewBridge, while Skadden Arps Slate Meagher & Flom served as its lawyers.

>>> Jana Partners discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing

Jana Partners discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New stake in TMH, SRCL; Boosted stake in PFE; Trimmed stake in LGF; Liquidated stake in VRX, QCOM, AIG
Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:
  • New positions in: TMH (~5.9 mln shares), SRCL (~2.4 mln), HDS (~2.9 mln), GOOG (~0.6 mln)
  • Increased positions in: PFE (to ~13.5 mln shares from ~9.2 mln shares)
  • Decreased positions in: AGN (to ~0.4 mln shares from ~1.2 mln shares), LGF (to ~1.5 mln from ~8.5 mln)
  • Closed positions in: WMB (from ~3.8 mln shares), VRX (from ~1.6 mln), TWX (from ~2.7 mln), STRZA (from ~5.4 mln), QCOM (from ~9.2 mln), LBTYA (from ~5.9 mln) BAX (from ~5.7 mln) AIG (from ~4.3 mln)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
: MSTX +11.7%, SYN +7.7%, PAM +6.2%, SPIL +6%, EDIT +4.4%

M&A news: NSPH +69.2% (to be acquired by Luminex (LMNX) for $1.35/share in an all cash transaction valued at ~$58 mln), ANAC +54.3% (to be acquired by Pfizer (PFE) for $99.25/share), TPUB +22.7% (Gannett (GCI) increases all-cash offer to acquire Tribune Publishing (TPUB) to $15/share from $12.25/share), MRD +12% ( to be acquired by Range Resources (RRC) in an all-stock transaction valued at $4.4 bln), TEX +8.2% (confirms the sale of its Material Handling and Port Solutions Business to Konecranes)

Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: IAG +4%, HMY +3.6%, BBL +3.4%, GFI +3.1%, X +2.9%, RIO +2.5%, FCX +2.4%, RIG +2.2%, ABX +1.9%, AG +1.7%, GDX +1.6%, AA +1.3%

Select oil/gas related names showing strength: XCO +7.6%, CHK +3%, SDRL +2.8%, MRO +2.7%, BHP +2.6%, PBR +1.9%, RDS.A +1.3%, BP +1.1%

Other news: GSAT +16.3% (reports the FCC's chairman is learning in favor of approving Globalstar's TLPS), GLBL +8.4% (receives letter which purports to constitute a notice of default), SYN +7.7% (announces 'positive' topline results from second phase 2a clinical trial of SYN-004), INO +7.1% (testing of its synthetic vaccine for the Zika virus induced robust antibody and T cell responses in non-human primates), EDIT +4.4% (announces 3-year agreement with Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Therapeutics to pay up to $5 mln to to 'support' discovery & development of CRISPR; also reported earnings), DLR +2.5% (to replace Time Warner Cable (TWC) in the S&P 500), YHOO +1.7% (Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) Warren Buffett plans to support YHOO bid, according to Reuters), AAPL +1.6% (Warren Buffett discloses new 9.8 mln share stake in Berkshire's latest 13F filing), VRX +0.8% (announces 'enhanced rebate program' to reduce the price of Nitropress and Isuprel for all hospitals in the United States)

Analyst comments: JCP +3.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird)

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
: WTT -4.8%, MNGA -1.1%

M&A news: RRC -2.4% (Memorial Resource Development to be acquired by Range Resources (RRC) in an all-stock transaction valued at $4.4 bln)


Other news: BBEP -57.9% (commences Chapter 11; secures $75 mln in debtor-in-possession financing), TRVN -19.4% (failed to meet either the primary or secondary endpoints in the Phase 2b BLAST-AHF study in acute heart failure)

Analyst comments: WB -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), BITA -1.2% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley)

(FBR & Co) Specialty retail 1Q16 EPS expectations now low; opportunity for compa

Specialty retail 1Q16 EPS expectations now low; opportunity for companies with specific drivers; expect cautious 2Q/2016 guidance
FBR & Co is estimating on average 1Q16 EPS in line with the Street, but believe there could be some downside given a soft April. The focus will be on 2Q/2016 trends/guidance, given recent concerns about the overall retail environment. Heading into 1Q16 reports, they believe PLCE (down -16% despite defensive kids business/co initiatives), CHS (down -11% despite upside from cost-cutting in 2016), and ASNA (down -23% already pricing in weaker missy but Justice SSS turn should be a positive) represent the best upside opportunity, while LULU (down just -2.6%) represents the best downside opportunity.