(BArCap) European Earnings Catch-Up with U.S. Not Priced In

Investors are pricing in view that current gap in profitability “persists to perpetuity,” which is too pessimistic, Barclays equity strategists including Dennis Jose write in note.
  • European earnings are still languishing near prior-cycle lows, at a time when U.S. cos. have managed to grow earnings to prior highs
  • Disconnect has seen European equities underperform U.S. by 44% since 2008
  • Lack of earnings growth due to profitability issues, not lack of growth in real GDP, revenues, which have broadly recovered to prior-cycle highs
  • Profit margins still languishing near cyclical lows, with return on equity lowest seen relative to U.S. in 41 years
    • Differences in sector weights do not fully explain this gap
  • Pricing and productivity now improving in Europe
    • European cos. are stabilizing pricing, aggressively cutting labor costs, suggesting margin expansion; while data suggests U.S. margin contraction

(SG) Telecom Italia : With EBITDA remaining under pressure, management steps up

With EBITDA remaining under pressure, management steps up cost-cutting efforts

Conference call on Monday 16 May at 8.30 AM UK Time. Dial-in: +39 06 33486868.

* Main surprises The group’s revenue and EBITDA remained under pressure in Q1 16, down 12.1% and 15.7 yoy respectively (-5.6% and -11.3% organically), coming in 1.9% and 4.7% below consensus estimates. In the domestic segment, revenue growth was in line with the rate recorded in Q4 15 (-2.3% yoy). Importantly, growth in service revenues deteriorated (-2.3% vs -1.1% in Q4 15), compensated for by higher growth in product sales. The deterioration was driven by fixed revenue (-4.3% yoy in Q1 16 vs -3.1% in Q4 15, negatively impacted by lines erosion), whereas in mobile TI recorded a marginal improvement (+0.6% yoy growth vs +0.1% in Q4 15). Domestic EBITDA fell 9.3% yoy (coming 2.8% below consensus). Even when adjusted for labour restructuring costs (€67m), EBITDA fell 5.2% yoy, making it a challenge to fulfil management’s EBITDA stabilisation target for 2016. The aim of stepping up cost savings is a welcome development with (new) management targeting a €0.8m run rate savings in both opex and capex in Italy by 2018 (vs €0.4m and €0.2m previously). However, as financial targets remain unchanged (with “net debt/EBITDA ratio to reduce below 3.0x”), investors may ask whether higher cost savings are earmarked to compensate for increasing top-line pressure or will be re-invested to support future revenues.
* Potential impact on SG & market forecast Neutral/Negative to market forecast.
* Potential impact on share price/recommendation Neutral/Negative to share price – Our target price of €1.10 is based on a SOTP (with a WACC of 6.0%). Risks to our TP, rating and recommendation: On the upside – 1) consolidation in domestic mobile would help the pricing environment and lift our domestic EBITDA projection (we are currently estimating flat growth during the 2016-18 period). On the downside – 1) any intensification in domestic competition, which would jeopardise the stabilisation seen in our estimates; 2) enduring weakness in Brazilian macros may impact fulfilment of management’s targets for TIM Brasil.

(SG) Telecom Italia : With EBITDA remaining under pressure, management steps up

With EBITDA remaining under pressure, management steps up cost-cutting efforts

Conference call on Monday 16 May at 8.30 AM UK Time. Dial-in: +39 06 33486868.

* Main surprises The group’s revenue and EBITDA remained under pressure in Q1 16, down 12.1% and 15.7 yoy respectively (-5.6% and -11.3% organically), coming in 1.9% and 4.7% below consensus estimates. In the domestic segment, revenue growth was in line with the rate recorded in Q4 15 (-2.3% yoy). Importantly, growth in service revenues deteriorated (-2.3% vs -1.1% in Q4 15), compensated for by higher growth in product sales. The deterioration was driven by fixed revenue (-4.3% yoy in Q1 16 vs -3.1% in Q4 15, negatively impacted by lines erosion), whereas in mobile TI recorded a marginal improvement (+0.6% yoy growth vs +0.1% in Q4 15). Domestic EBITDA fell 9.3% yoy (coming 2.8% below consensus). Even when adjusted for labour restructuring costs (€67m), EBITDA fell 5.2% yoy, making it a challenge to fulfil management’s EBITDA stabilisation target for 2016. The aim of stepping up cost savings is a welcome development with (new) management targeting a €0.8m run rate savings in both opex and capex in Italy by 2018 (vs €0.4m and €0.2m previously). However, as financial targets remain unchanged (with “net debt/EBITDA ratio to reduce below 3.0x”), investors may ask whether higher cost savings are earmarked to compensate for increasing top-line pressure or will be re-invested to support future revenues.
* Potential impact on SG & market forecast Neutral/Negative to market forecast.
* Potential impact on share price/recommendation Neutral/Negative to share price – Our target price of €1.10 is based on a SOTP (with a WACC of 6.0%). Risks to our TP, rating and recommendation: On the upside – 1) consolidation in domestic mobile would help the pricing environment and lift our domestic EBITDA projection (we are currently estimating flat growth during the 2016-18 period). On the downside – 1) any intensification in domestic competition, which would jeopardise the stabilisation seen in our estimates; 2) enduring weakness in Brazilian macros may impact fulfilment of management’s targets for TIM Brasil.

(SG) Risk Premium : Hunt for yield favours developed equities and emerging bonds

Hunt for yield favours developed equities and emerging bonds
In this monthly report, we outline our proprietary risk premium for 27 developed and 23 emerging markets in the Americas, Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia and New Zealand.
* What returns should investors expect from financial assets? The key question in the current market environment is what return investors should expect over the medium to long term from equity and government bonds. With this report and our proprietary risk premium tools, we provide a framework for estimating potential return over the next ten years (see page 3).
* Expect sub-par equity and bond market return globally. We use our proprietary cost of capital (equity) to gauge equity market return. Our analysis suggests that the current cost of capital is below the historical average for most countries (see page 3). This indicates that the equity return going forward should be below average and in the single-digits for most developed countries.
* Equities still offer better value than government bonds, especially in developed markets. Thanks to low bond yields, despite a lower cost of capital, the equity risk premium remains attractive in most developed countries. With dividend yields higher than bond yields in most developed countries, long-term investors should prefer equity over government bonds (see page 4).
* Hunt for yield favours developed equity and emerging bonds. Within developed equity markets, the euro area, the UK and Canada offer a higher cost of capital. Within emerging markets, India offers good combination of high return and stable currency. Government bonds offer better value in Brazil, South Africa and Russia.

FT : Britain passes historic milestone with first days of coal-free power

Britain passes historic milestone with first days of coal-free power

It was a historic moment — the first time the UK’s electricity was supplied without burning any coal.

The milestone was passed last week — on seven separate occasions, in fact — when Britain was powered without recourse to coal for the first time since the country’s first steam-driven public power station opened in 1882. From Monday May 9 to the following Sunday lunchtime, the UK was at “zero coal” almost one-third of the time.
Falling power prices have made it increasingly uneconomical to run coal-fired power stations, especially when high winds or sunshine boost renewable generators.

Amber Rudd, the energy secretary, announced in a speech last year that she wanted an end to coal power in the UK by 2025, as part of the country’s commitment to cutting carbon emissions. That date may have to come forward.

Simon Evans, policy editor of the Carbon Brief website, said: “This is not the end for UK coal power, but it is a significant moment. The UK was the first country to build a public coal-fired power station. Now it is going to be one of the first to close them all down.”

Centralised energy supply in the UK was built on coal. Thomas Edison’s coal-fuelled power plant, completed in 1882 at Holborn Viaduct, was the first public power station of any size. Its 27-tonne generator was enough to light 1,000 lamps and was soon expanded to power 3,000.

For the next century, coal remained the dominant source of fuel. When British electricity was privatised in 1990, coal power still made up about 80 per cent of supplies — not least because gas was kept back as a material from which to make petrochemicals.

In the past 25 years, however, cheap and abundant gas has supplanted coal as the most significant form of thermal generation, while renewables have provided additional electricity.

Dieter Helm, professor of energy policy at Oxford university, said: “Since 1990 three things have happened: nuclear has made no progress, gas has become a big fuel source and renewables have come along.”
More recently, the decline of British coal power has accelerated for two reasons.

The first is that the tumbling oil price has brought down wholesale energy prices with it, leading some companies to shut down plants they no longer deemed worth maintaining.

Analysis by Aurora Energy Research suggests coal power stations need a wholesale power price of around £40 per megawatt hour to make them worth running. Last week, the average price was just £29 per MWh.

In March, two of Britain’s biggest coal power stations — Longannet in Scotland and Ferrybridge in West Yorkshire — closed altogether.

The second reason is that Ms Rudd told the industry last year that she would ensure Britain’s last coal-fired boiler would shut by 2025. Having been informed there is no long-term future for coal, those in charge of generation appear to have cut back on maintenance work, leading to occasional breakdowns.

Last week National Grid, which runs the UK’s electricity network, had to issue an emergency request for more power after several coal-fired power stations encountered problems.

Dave Jones, an analyst at Sandbag, the climate change think-tank, said: “Having zero coal in the UK is a historic moment in the transition to clean electricity. The fall has come quickly — as recently as 2012, 40 per cent of electricity came from coal.”

Although ministers want an end to coal power, this accelerated timetable has prompted concerns about the security of supplies.
Prof Helm said: “It is not unusual outside Britain to see coal playing no role in electricity supply — it happens in Germany regularly. But it does tell us that coal is going to collapse in this country faster than thought.”

The margin of potential supply above peak demand has fallen to its lowest level in decades, hitting just 1.2 per cent during this winter before last-resort measures were brought in.

The emergency request issued by the grid last week was the second the National Grid has made in the past year. Before that, it had only issued one since 2009.

In April, the Grid gave two lucrative services contracts to coal-fuelled plants. These helped ease the economic squeeze but critics said they also revealed the Grid’s “blind panic” over electricity supplies in the short term.

In the longer term, with concerns mounting about whether a new nuclear plant will be built at Hinkley Point by 2025 as planned, some are suggesting the Grid might need to do more to encourage coal operators to stay online.

Peter Atherton, an analyst at Jefferies, said: “The UK government wants to phase coal generation out by 2025. But looking at the situation today, the bigger challenge will be keeping coal plants on the system to protect security of supply.”

>>> Telecom Italia - After mkt hours announced Q1results: revs Euro 4.48 bn, EBI

After mkt hours announced Q1results: revs Euro 4.48 bn, EBITDA Euro 1.8 bn, Net profit Euro 55 mn, NFP Euro (27.27 bn).
Company announced that the target of cost reduction in Italy over the 2015-2018 period was increased from Euro 0.6 bn (which EUR 0.4Bn opex and EUR 0.2Bn capex) to EUR 1.6Bn (of which EUR 0.8Bn opex and EUR 0.8Bn capex). Previous target of a domestic EBITDA stabilisation at organic level in 2016 was confirmed. 2018 coverage targets were confirmed for both NGN (from 45% to ~84% - further coverage subject to Public policy) and LTE (from 92% to 98%).
Il Sole reports that talks to buy Metroweb in exchange for a stake in TI Sparkle will not likely succeed. Suggested that TI could now sell a minority stake of TI Sparkle on the mkt. Article adds that the current situation of Tim Brazil makes it more difficult to sell and the objective is to make the unit more efficient to sell at a later date

>>> What to look at today - 16th of May 2016

Asian equity markets are marginally in the green in spite of selling pressure in the US on Friday and subsequent weekend release of disappointing China retail, industrial output, and fixed asset investment on Saturday. After opening lower, Shanghai Composite is up slightly in the afternoon session as PBoC released a statement assuring that disappointing New Loans and Money Supply figures out on Friday will be reversed. Risk-on was also more visible among FX majors. After falling below 108.50, USD/JPY rallied to 108.90. China retail sales fell to an 11-month lows and industrial output was much lower than expected at 6.0%, as the key power generation component returned to negative at -1.7% v +4.0% prior. China, rail stocks are firmer after reports that regulators could reduce requirements for city-size urban rail transit to facilitate infrastructure investment. In Japan, Sentiment was also bolstered by renewed speculation about the delay of Japan sales tax increase in a Nikkei report on Friday, even though cabinet spokesperson Suga has once again played down those rumors. Energy stood out in the commodity space as June WTI crude oil spiked up 1.5% to $47/brl, matching Friday's highs. Traders are monitoring political upheaval in Venezuela as well as oil delta sabotage in Nigeria impacting supply.

Nikkei +0.19% Hang Seng +1.05% CSI +0.20% Shanghai +0.21%

Eur$ 1.1310 CNH 6.5511 CNY 6.5261 JPY 108.74 GBP 1.4358 CHF 0.9764 RUB$ 64.9395 WTI$ 46.83 +1.34%
S&P +0.09% EuroStoxx -0.25% Daxclosed SMI Closed FTSE -0.27%

Macro :
- France 2016 Economic Growth May Exceed EU Forecast: Moscovici
- Italy’s Four Rescued Banks Received Non-Binding Bids
- Germany’s Minimum Wage to Rise 3.2% in 2017: Bild
- Greece Needs Economic Stability, Dombrovskis Tells Kathimerini
- Over 300 Business Leaders Call for Brexit in Letter: Telegraph

Keep an eye on :
- ADS GY : Adidas’s Landau Says Co. Aims for ‘2-Digit’ Profit Margin: FAS
- AI FP : FTC Requires Air Liquide, Airgas to Divest Assets for Approval
- AAPL US : Uber China Rival Didi Said to Consider New York IPO in 2017
- DBK GY : Germany Clears Deutsche Bank Employees in Libor Scandal: Spiegel
- EDF FP : EDF Faces Bugey Nuclear Plant Probe After Swiss Complaint: AFP
- EDF FP : Electricite De France Cut to A by S&P; Outlook Negative
- EDF FP : China General Nuclear Denies Sole Plans for Hinkley Point: Rtrs
- GFS LN : G4S Plans to Operate Mobile Banking Units in U.K., Europe: FT
- KNEBV FH : Kone Wins Order for 33 Elevators, 21 Escalators in China
- KCR1V FH : Terex Said in Talks to Sell Unit to Konecranes as Chinese Circle
- MC FP : LVMH’s TAG Heuer to Open Silicon Valley Office: Le Temps
- NESN VX : Nestle Nutrition does not rule out acquisitions
- NOVN VX : Novartis: Ultibro Breezhaler Shown Superior to Corticosteroid
- PRS SM : Prisa Says Price Set for DTS Sale to Telefonica at EU724.6M
- RCS IM : Bonomi May Be Studying RCS MediaGroup Bid: Sole 24 Ore
- RR/ LN : U.K. to Ask Rolls-Royce to Cut Fees in Jet Contract: Telegraph
- RYA LN : +ve article in the BArron's
- SAN FP : Facebook Said to Start Talks With Music Labels on Licensing: NYP
- SRS IM : Italian Refiner Saras Signs Crude-Supply Deal With Iran
- TEF SM : O2 CEO Dunne Exploring GBP8.5b Management Buyout: Telegraph
- TSCO LN : Tesco CEO Says Online Retailer Tax Advantage a Problem: Observer
- TEVA IT : Novartis, Mylan, Cinven, Apollo Global interested in Teva drug portfolio in Iceland, Britain and Ireland - Price tage could be up to $2bil - Ha'aretz
- TNTE NA : FedEx now owns 88.4% of TNT Express shares, announced both companies in a joint press release.
- UBSN VX : UBS Names New Co-Heads of Americas Financial Institutions Group
- VIV FP : Uber China Rival Didi Said to Consider New York IPO in 2017
- VOW3 GY : Volkswagen Pays Contract Employees EU3,950 in Profit Sharing
- VOW3 GY : Volkswagen to Halt Brazil Production on Lack of Seats: Estado
- VOW3 GY : Norway Fund Says Will Seek to Join Class Action Against VW

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & DOwngrades - 16th of May 2016

>>> Up
*ANTOFAGASTA RAISED TO SECTOR PERFORM VS UNDERPERFORM AT RBC
*DIA RAISED TO EQUAL WEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*HUNTING RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN

>>> Down
*DAILY MAIL CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*DEUTSCHE BANK CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT BERENBERG
*DRAX GROUP CUT TO UNDERPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN
*EUTELSAT CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUAL WEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*EUTELSAT CUT TO ADD VS BUY AT ALPHAVALUE
*KUKA CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*PHOSAGRO CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*PICK N PAY STORES CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*ALDERMORE RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT CITI; PT 210P
*CBRE GROUP INC RATED NEW MARKET PERFORM AT KEEFE BRUYETTE
*JONES LANG LASALLE RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT KEEFE BRUYETTE
*METRO BANK RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT CITI; PT 2,120P
*SHAWBROOK RATED NEW BUY AT CITI; PT 340P

>>> Call

>>> Novartis, Mylan, Cinven, Apollo Global interested in Teva drug portfolio in

Novartis, Mylan, Cinven, Apollo Global interested in Teva drug portfolio in Iceland, Britain and Ireland

Novartis and Mylan, as well as the private equity firms Cinven and Apollo Global Management, are interested in the drug portfolio of Teva in Iceland, Britain and Ireland, according to a report in Ha'aretz.

The report, based on unidentified sources, said that Cinven and Apollo may bid up to USD 2bn for the portfolio.

The report said that the European Commission is said to have a preference for a buyer experienced in the market for generic drugs in Europe to take over the portfolios.

Teva has been looking to divest assets to get an approval to buy the generics operation of Allergan. EU regulatory authorities had given a conditional approval for Teva to buy the business, so long as it sold a substantial part of its Irish and UK business, the report added.

Ha'aretz