EU officials 'believe Britain will give up on Brexit if they make negotiations tough enough'Senior figures in the EU believe that Britain will give up on Brexit if they make negotiations as tough as possible, the Telegraph understands.British officials are fighting to stop Europe adopting a no-compromise position in talks in the hope that the UK will change its mind about leaving the bloc.This belief is fuelling the hardline message on issues like freedom of movement that have emerged from Berlin, Paris and Brussels in recent weeks.More than five senior EU figures interviewed by the Telegraph this week expressed doubts that Britain would go through with Brexit when confronted by the “reality of the bureaucratic nightmare” and the “insane act of economic self-harm”, as they referred to Brexit.One senior British official involved in the set up for the coming negotiations said the EU elite “seem to think the game is to make us change our minds”.This stance has left officials fighting to explain to European leaders how “dangerous” a game they were playing, and how “unlikely” it was to succeed.Who are the Brexit ministers?Play! 01:33A second UK official source with knowledge of the talks added there was a danger that positions in the Brexit talks were already becoming “dangerously entrenched”, even before Theresa May invokes Article 50 that will open formal EU-UK "divorce" proceedings.The sense that battle-lines are hardening across Europe came as the 27 EU leaders prepared for a summit on Friday in the Slovakian capital, Bratislava, designed to demonstrate unity and a determination to forge ahead with a European future without Britain.The toughening mood was darkly hinted at by Donald Tusk, the European Council president, in a nine-point letter urging EU leaders to use the Bratislava summit to restore citizens' fading faith in the European Union.In a thinly veiled appeal to make sure Britain was left demonstrably worse-off by Brexit, Mr Tusk insisted that the 27 should resolutely “stick to the Treaty” on issues like free movement.“If we do so, there will be no room for doubt that it is a good thing to be a member of the Union,” he wrote.Tusk tells May to get on with Brexit: The ball's in your courtPlay! 01:31The EU’s choice of lead negotiators – the French finance expert Michel Barnier, for the European Commission and Guy Verhofstadt, the former Belgian prime minister and arch-ferderalist, for the Parliament – has also been taken as a clear sign of the EU’s determination to drive a hard bargain.The appointments were described on Thursday as "very, very tough" by Herman van Rumpuy, the former European Council president, who warned that negotiations would be “difficult” for Britain.In the European Parliament, which must ratify any Article 50 deal agreed by the EU 27, the mood against Britain was further soured this week by personal attacks on Mr Verhofstadt by former Ukip leader Nigel Farage and the Brexit secretary, David Davis.Mr Davis referred to his future interlocutor as “Satan” when addressing the Foreign Affairs select committee, while Mr Farage – long a thorn in the side of pro-EU MEPs – lambasted Mr Verhofstadt as a “fanatic” whose appointment amounted to “declaring war” in the coming talks.Nigel Farage calls EU's top Brexit negotiator a 'fanatic'Play! 01:27“Perhaps there was a time when this could not have got nasty,” said one source close to Mr Verhofstadt, “but when the Brexit minister calls the chief negotiator ‘Satan’ what response, really, does Britain expect?”Those sentiments were echoed by Burkhard Balz, a German MEP whose leading role on the European Parliament’s economic and monetary affairs committee makes him influential on financial services regulation, said Britain must not underestimate the determination of the rest of Europe to deprive the UK of its EU financial passporting rights and euro clearing.He also warned Europe would accept economic pain to defend its core principles and that the belief among Brexiters that the demands of German and French exporters could substantially soften terms was overblown.“This summer I travelled all over Germany, and the main reason was to talk about Brexit. Every time, in every place, the biggest round of applause was when I said the ‘the time of cherry-picking and rebates is over’. That is how the German people feel about the situation,” he told the Telegraph.
After Hours Summary: LPTH +10% and SANW +6% following earnings/guidance, CAR +5% on S&P 400 addition news... ORCL -3% following earnings/guidance, NVAX -84% on trial updates, DB -7% on potential hefty DoJ settlement amountAfter Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: LPTH +9.8%, SANW +6.1%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: DEPO +12.7% (potential sale exploration), SCOR +6.4% (light volume - will provide a company update in conference call on Friday, September 16 at 8:30am; determines that various prior financial statements should no longer be relied upon), CAR +5.3% (to join the S&P MidCap 400), AINV +3% (Apollo Investment expanded the stock repurchase program by $50 mln to $150 mln), OHGI +2.6% (enters into securities purchase agreement, agrees to sell an aggregate of 198,413 shares of common stock at $0.63/share), P +0.8% (ticking higher - Pandora Media and Warner Music Group announce direct licensing agreement), LULU +0.5% (light volume - initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: ORCL -3%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: NVAX -84.1% (announces topline RSV F vaccine data from two clinical trials in older adults; topline data from the Resolve Phase 3 trial did not meet pre-specified efficacy objectives), CAPR -15.1% (to offer shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering; size not disclosed), MGT -9.9% (following investor presentation / call detailing goals for the next 3-6 months), DB -7.2% (Deutsche Bank confirms negotiations with DoJ regarding RMBS; expects negotiations will lead to an outcome similar to those of peer banks which have settled at materially lower amounts), SITO -2% (to offer and sell shares of common stock in an underwritten public offering), FOXA -0.9% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein)
Closing Market Summary: Stocks Rise on Negative Economic DataThe stock market ended the Thursday affair on a broadly higher note as participants dialed back rate hike expectations following a barrage of economic data. Today's rally also featured continued strength from top-weighted Apple (AAPL 115.57, +3.80), a rebound in crude oil futures, and another mixed performance from the Treasury complex. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.5%) settled ahead of the S&P 500 (+1.0%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.0%).
The major averages shook weakness in the opening hour of trade as a weaker-than-expected reading of the Retail Sales Report for August stymied rate hike expectations for the coming months. The report indicated that retail sales declined 0.3% (consensus -0.1%) in August while retail sales excluding autos fell 0.1% (consensus +0.3%). Softening in discretionary spending will likely negatively impact third quarter GDP forecasts.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August also appeared to ease fears regarding a sooner-than-expected fed funds rate hike. The report showed that the PPI was flat in August (consensus +0.1%) while core PPI rose an in-line 0.1% over that time. The reading signaled some firming in inflation at the producer level, but also that inflation rates continue to tread below the Fed's target. On a side note, the Consumer Price Index (consensus +0.1%) is slated to cross the wires at 8:30 ET tomorrow.
Equities rallied throughout the session, reveling in diminished rate hike odds. The fed funds futures market estimates the odds of a rate hike at the September meeting at 12.0%, falling from 15.0% in the previous session. The implied probability of a rate hike at the December meeting fell to 46.2% from 52.9%. Additionally, the Bank of England failed to rock the boat when it opted to maintain its monetary policy stance. It is worth noting, however, that the central bank indicated that further easing could be on the way.
The S&P 500 (+1.0%) settled near its session high, testing resistance near the 2150 price level. All ten sectors ended in the green with telecom services (+1.1%), health care (+1.1%), energy (+1.1%), and technology (+1.7%) leading the advance. Conversely, materials (+0.6%) and financials (+0.7%) ended at the bottom of the leaderboard.
The heavily-weighted technology sector (+1.7%), outperformed as Dow component Apple (AAPL 115.57, +3.80) extended its recent winning streak. The stock rallied 3.4% after the company confirmed that it sold out of first run models of the iPhone 7 plus. Credit Suisse also increased its iPhone 7 sales estimates and restated its "Outperform" designation on the stock. Separately, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+2.3%) outperformed as iPhone supplier Skyworks (SWKS 77.02, +4.62) rallied 6.4%. The price-weighted index sports a week-to-date gain of 4.4%.
Biotechnology settled ahead of the health care group (+1.1%), evidenced by the 1.5% gain in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 290.15, +4.22). In the ETF, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX 93.10, +2.98) led after Stifel raised its price target on the stock to $109 from $105. Meanwhile, Mylan Labs (MYL 41.49, +0.65) trimmed its month-to-date loss to 2.1%. The broader sector has jumped 1.1% this week, which compares to a gain of 0.9% in the benchmark index.
In the financial sector (+0.7%), Wells Fargo (WFC 46.15, -0.37) underperformed following yesterday's report that Federal prosecutors in California and New York are investigating the bank's sales practices. Conversely, MetLife (MET 44.50, +0.72) jumped 1.6% amid continued steepening in the yield curve. The broader sector erased a modest year-to-date loss and now sports a gain of 0.1% over that time.
Treasuries ended on a mixed note with the short end of the curve demonstrating relative strength. The yield on the 2-yr note fell two basis points to 0.74% while the yield on the 10-yr note finished flat at 1.70%. The spread between the 2-yr and 10-yr note expanded to 96 basis points from 89 on Friday.
Today's participation was above the recent average as more than 819 million shares changed hands on the NYSE floor.
Today's economic data included weekly initial claims, retail sales for August, PPI for August, the Philadelphia Fed Survey for September, the second quarter current account balance, Empire Manufacturing for September, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and Business Inventories for July:
- Jobless claims for the week ending September 10 were 260,000 (consensus 263,000), up 1,000 from the prior week and the 80th straight week they have been below 300,000.
- Continuing claims for the week ending September 3 were 2.143 million, also up 1,000 from the prior week.
- Total retail sales declined 0.3% in August (consensus -0.1%) after increasing a revised 0.1% (from 0.0%) in July.
- Excluding autos, retail sales declined 0.1% (consensus +0.3%) after declining a downwardly revised 0.4% (from -0.3%) in July.
- Total PPI was unchanged (consensus +0.1%) after declining 0.4% in July. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.1% (consensus +0.1%) after declining 0.3% in July.
- Producer pricing trends are improving, yet inflation rates still remain comfortably below the Fed's comfort level.
- The Philadelphia Fed Index checked in at 12.8 (consensus 0.0) versus 2.0 in August. That marked the first time since last August that the index has registered two consecutive positive readings.
- The current account deficit for the second quarter totaled $119.9 billion while the consensus expected the deficit to hit $122.8 billion. The first quarter deficit was revised to $131.8 billion from $124.7 billion.
- The Empire Manufacturing Survey was little changed at -2.0 in September (consensus 0.0) versus -4.2 in August. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 0.0.
- Industrial production declined 0.4% in August (consensus -0.3%), which wasn't a complete surprise, after increasing a downwardly revised 0.6% (from +0.7%) in July.
- The capacity utilization rate dropped to 75.5% (consensus 75.7%) from 75.9%.
- Total business inventories were unchanged in July (consensus +0.1%) following an unrevised 0.2% increase in June. Sales were down 0.2% after increasing 1.0% in June.
- Inventory-to-sales ratio for July held steady at 1.39
For more on these economic releases, be sure to visit Economic Calendar page.
Tomorrow's economic data will include CPI for August (consensus +0.1%) and the preliminary reading of the Michigan Sentiment Index for September (consensus 91.5), which will cross the wires at 8:30 ET and 10:00 ET, respectively. Separately, Net Long-Term TIC Flows for July will be released at 16:00 ET.
- Russell 2000: +7.9% YTD
- S&P 500: +5.1% YTD
- Nasdaq: +4.8% YTD
- Dow Jones: +4.5% YTD