(BofA-ML) Flow Show - Equity Exodus : $7.4bil Outflows

>>> Asset Class Flows
- Equities: $7.4bn outflows (5 straight weeks) ($4.8bn mutual fund outflows and $2.7bn ETF outflows)
- Bonds: $3.5bn inflows (inflows in 10 of past 11 weeks)
- Precious metals: $1.0bn inflows (inflows in 17 of past 18 weeks)
- Money-markets: $10.9bn inflows (largest in 13 weeks)

>>> Equity Flows
- Europe: $3.9bn outflows (14 straight weeks = longest streak since Feb’08)
- EM: $2.3bn outflows (largest in 16 weeks)
- Japan: ekes out $88mn inflows (ends 8 straight weeks of outflows)
- US: $2.2bn outflows (outflows in 4 of past 5 weeks)
- By sector, 12 straight weeks of REITs inflows ($0.8bn); 4 straight weeks of tech outflows ($0.2bn); first outflows from financials in 4 weeks ($0.4bn)

>>> Fixed Income Flows
- $3.2bn inflows to IG bond funds (10 straight weeks)
- $1.5bn outflows from HY bond funds (2 straight weeks)
- $1.2bn inflows to Munis (34 straight weeks)
- $0.3bn inflows to TIPS (13 straight weeks)
- $0.2bn inflows to EM debt funds (12 straight weeks)
- $0.9bn outflows from Govt/Tsy funds (12 straight weeks)

(BofA-ML) Nokia : Its always darkest before dawn – up to Buy

Its always darkest before dawn – up to Buy

Expectations reset, synergy optionality + cash returns
Following multiple earnings resets (IPR, Networks margins) the share price has
underperformed ytd and seems to bake in negligible value for potential ALU deal
synergies and licensing/Technologies. Our analysis suggests that Networks margins
should trough in 1H16, and we view management’s 7% margin floor for 2016 as
conservative. Our bear/base/bull scenario analysis suggests limited/10% downside but
40% to 100% upside potential on a 1-2 year view should management deliver on the
ALU integration. Add in >7% expected cash returns p.a. with room for more, and we
believe it is time to Buy Nokia again.

1H margin trough, higher synergies drive EPS recovery
Management has become a ‘victim’ of its own conservativism issuing ‘only’ a 7% margin
floor for this year. Our analysis suggests guidance is conservative as 1Q is the seasonal
low-point and cost savings and a likely improvement in high-margin US spending should
become tailwinds into 2H. Our refreshed synergy analysis suggests cost savings upside
potential to E1.6bn by 2019E, which could drive a 2.7x recovery in EPS by then.

>7% cash returns; potential QE beneficiary
With 30% of market cap in net cash we expect >7% in annual cash returns including the
E1.5bn share buyback starting in mid-June. By 2018 up to 17% of market cap could be
‘excess cash’ additionally returned to shareholders, in our view. Nokia may also benefit
from the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Program (CSPP) with potentially 3-5% EPS
increases from refinancing at low yields.

Synergies & Technologies ‘for free’; 7% FCF yield
We estimate the current share price only gives Nokia credit for pre-synergies Networks
margins (E3.1/share) and net cash (E1.4/share). We believe this implies investors are
potentially getting Technologies and synergies ‘for free’. Our bear/base/bull scenario
analysis suggests limited/10% downside (all cost savings neutralised) but 40% to 100%
upside potential on a 12-24mth view in the event that management delivers on the ALU
i ntegration. On a 7% 2017E FCF yield and 6x EV/EBITDA, multiples also look attractive.


>>> ACS applies brakes to merger with Hochtief

ACS applies brakes to merger with Hochtief

Spanish construction and energy group ACS has applied the brakes to the merger process with its German construction unit Hochtief due to the disparities of the companies’ respective stock value, Expansion reported.

The Spanish-language business paper cited sources close to ACS as saying that a merger now would be detrimental to the Spanish shareholders.

ACS is ready to postpone the merger until 2017, Expansion said. Hochtief stock closed yesterday (12 May) at EUR 111.70, down 1.5% on the previous day, while ACS stock closed at EUR 27.10, down 1.3%.

ACS holds a 66.5% stake in Hochtief. The German company reported 1Q16 net profit of EUR 63m.

Expansion

FT : The Weinstein Company hires bankers to sell stake in TV unit

The Weinstein Company hires bankers to sell stake in TV unit

The Weinstein Company has hired Moelis & Co, the advisory firm, to sell a strategic stake in its television business as demand for content increases from new players such as Netflix and Amazon.

TWC, which was founded by Harvey and Bob Weinstein, was in talks with ITV last year to sell the division, which makes Project Runway as well as scripted series such as Scream, for MTV, and War & Peace, which it co-produced with the BBC.
Allen & Co advised on a sale but the talks did not lead to a deal. Harvey Weinstein, TWC’s co-chairman, told the Financial Times that increasing demand for quality television had convinced the company to retain control of the division and seek strategic investors instead.

He compared the growth potential to the early days of Miramax, the independent studio he founded with his brother that helped revolutionise independent film, releasing hits such as Pulp Fiction, The English Patient and Good Will Hunting.

“We have the ability to create something in the world of television that is as big as Miramax was in film,” he said.

“The game plan is to bring in two or three strategic investors,” he added. “We want partners who can help us grow in new markets.”

Bob Weinstein added: “There are so many outlets right now that need quality product.”

TWC declined to comment on its financial performance but a person familiar with the matter said its annual earnings had risen 20 per cent since the ITV discussions to about $50m, giving the unit an approximate value of $650m.

TWC has 15 scripted shows and five non-scripted shows on air and an additional 25-30 in development. It is producing a series based on a book by The Godfather author Mario Puzo, which will star Sylvester Stallone, and is making a non-scripted show for NBC about technology investors called The Incubator and starring Silicon Valley entrepreneur Jason Calacanis.
Bob Weinstein said the company was mining its library of intellectual property to develop television programming, such as an animated series for children based on its Spy Kids movie series.

The sale process comes amid increasing investor interest in content production. John Malone, the cable investor who controls Liberty Media and Liberty Global, recently doubled his stake in Lions Gate Entertainment, with Discovery Communications also investing in the studio.

Mr Malone also holds a stake in Discovery which, together with Liberty Global acquired All3Media, an independent television production group, in 2014 and recently bought Sam Mendes’ Neal Street Productions, which is known for UK series such as Call the Midwife.

ITV has also been on the acquisition trail, buying companies such as Leftfield Entertainment, the producer of non-scripted shows such as Pawn Stars, and Talpa, which makes The Voice.

>>> EDF could be bypassed for Hinkley Point project under Chinese government’s ‘

EDF could be bypassed for Hinkley Point project under Chinese government’s ‘plan B’; EDF adds GBP 2.7bn contingency provision to Hinkley budget


The Chinese government is working on a confidential proposal to bypass the French energy group Electricite de France [EPA:EDF] for the construction of the Hinkley Point nuclear power plant in the UK, The Times reported.

The government is working on an alternative proposal to build two nuclear plants without EDF’s participation in the event that the current GBP 21bn (EUR 26.65bn) deal collapses, the item said.

The report cited former UK energy minister David Howell, who said in the UK parliament’s upper chamber the House of Lords that China also has an alternative plan to build a couple of smaller nuclear plants without the involvement of EDF, and more quickly than the plans proposed at the moment.

As previously reported, EDF and the Chinese engineering group China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) have proposed a GBP 18bn construction plan for Hinkley Point.

EDF has delayed making a final investment decision regarding Hinkley Point several times and recently indicated that the decision would be made in September, the article noted.

Howell later told the newspaper that his assertion was based on his deduction of the views of informed experts. Howell has also held private meetings with delegations from China, he item said.

Howell is president of the British Institute of Energy Economics and chairs Windsor Energy Group, the item noted.

The government at first informed Howell that it was aware of the Chinese proposal but later indicated that their representative in the House of Lords had heard incorrectly, the report added. The newspaper went on to quote a spokesperson for the UK Department of Energy who said there are no plans for “the Chinese” to construct a nuclear reactor at Hinkley Point.

EDF owns the Hinkley Point site and therefore any project would require the French group’s approval, the article said. If EDF was unable to make a final decision on investment in Hinkley Point, it could theoretically be compelled to allow another developer to take over the project on the site, according to the report.

Separately, EDF on Thursday issued a statement to the effect that contingency provisions could add GBP 2.7bn to the existing forecast GBP 18bn cost of the Hinkley Point project. EDF added that it does not expect to incur costs of more than GBP 18bn and that the additional 15% provision by itself and CGN is merely normal practice for construction projects.

The Times

>>> Street Pre-Market indications

ML
+ MSCI:ABN NA, HA GY, PST IM, HOT GY, DCC LN, HIK LN, 1COV GY, MHG NO, FGR FP
- MSCI:SPD LN, SUN SW, BP IM, BCP PL. All inline with our ests...............
* MICRO FOCUS - Wizard selling 24.1m shrs @ 1505p; Numis/CS/Barc/Jeff........
FERRAGAMO - Q1 EBIT 9% ahead on FX & tight cost control. We take EPS up 5%+2%
NOKIA - We UPGRADE to Buy, PO NOK6, 7% networks margin floor conservative.+1%
TELE COLUMBUS - Inline, confirms guidance. Revs inline (+5% yony).........+1%
YNAP - Inline with 15% constant currency rev growth. FY guidance confirmed+1%
ACS - Inline with EBITDA ex-Hochtief proving resilient (adjusted +3%).....+1%
BOUYGUES - Inline on better telcos & construction. EBIT touch lower.......+1%
SALZGITTER - Results broadly inline with co confirming FY guidance........u/c
D.WOHNEN - 1Q PBT €100.6m v €44.2m loss yr ago. No increase to guidance...u/c
AUSTRIAN POST - Rev €592m v c.€595m; EBIT €51.1m v €51.2m cons. FY reit...u/c
EDF - Moody's downgrades to A2 from A1. Outlook changed to Negative.......u/c
ROYAL DUTCH - Shuts Gulf of Mexico platform after offshore oil spill......-1%
UK MINERS - Copper +0.5%, Iron Ore -0.5% & BHP OZ -2.9%, RIO OZ -3.3%...-1-2%
BVI - Org growth marginally worse -0.6% v -0.4% cons. Marine sees slowdown-2%
EUROPRIS - EBITDA NOK44m v NOK 65m. Q1 Sales of NOK 1,016m v NOK 1,036m...-2%
EUTELSAT - We DOWNGRADE to Underperform post profit warning, PO to EUR 22.-6%
MainFirst Pre Mkt Indications....
*BAYER-Seen divesting assets in MON deal(We think JV/Alliance).....-0.5%
*UBISOFT-Rev €624.9m(603.25),FY Rev €1.394b(1.387),Confirms FY17...+2%
*BOUYGUES-Sales 6.534b(6.548),Confirms full year outlook...........+2%
*EUTELSAT-Q3 Rev €383m(387.5),Cuts FY Sales guidance...............-5%
*BILFINGER-PORR interesting in Bilfingers construction Assets......+0.25%
*EURONEXT-In talks to buy 20% of Euroccp for EU14mm................-0.5%
*D/WOHNEN-Ebitda 159.2m(144),FFO 100.6m(93.3),NI 97.3m(85).........+2%
*ACS-No's Q1 Net €220m(212),Ebitda €597m(597),Sales €7.92b(7.84)...U/C
*B/VERITAS-Rev €1.06b(1.08),Org Rev 2 improve in H2,Eco volatile...-0.5%
*YOOK-Net Rev €446.2m(€453m),2m orders,2.5m active customers.......-1%
*BAUER-Sales 383.2m(312),Ebit 4.8m(3.4),Confirms FY Rev,Ebit & Net.+2%
*DT EUROSHOP-Rev 51m(50.7),Net 24.9m(26),FFO 58c(57),o/l lite......+0.5%
*GFK-Sales 360.5m(362),EBIT 27.7m(25.23),sees modest grth in 16....+0.5%
*SIXT-Rev 537.5m(513),PTP 31.1m,EPS 37c,Confirms FY16 targets......+0.5%
*STABILUS-Rev 180.9m(177),Ebit 25.2m(23.7),margin 13.9%(13.4)......+1%
*TALANX-Prems 8.99b(9.35),Ebit 573m(523),NI 222m(191),FY ok........+1.5%
*TEL COLUMBUS-Rev 1116.1m(122),Ebitda 56.5m(55.6),o/lk confirmed...-2%
*FERRAGAMO-Rev 321m(324),OP 49m(45.2),Ebitda 64m(60.2),€/Asia wk...+3%
*PRO7-Makes additional provs for tax payments in Q2,payments €40m..-1%
*HAPAG LLOYD-Q1 Vols better,Rev €1.93b(1.84),outlook unchanged.....+1%
*SALZGITTER-Sales €1.87b(1.98),PT €3.1b,Confirms outlook...........+1%
CS Calls :
Bilfinger +1% Porr interested in Bilfinger’s building construction assets
Bouygues +1% Revs inline, telco performace solid
Bureau Veri -1% Q1 sales 2% light, org growth light, outlook reiterated
Deut Wohnen UNCH FFO 100.9mn vs. 94mn cons. FY16 outlook confirmed
Euronext +1-2% Investor day, 2019 targets look better than consensus
Eutelsat -10%+ Q3 Miss and Guidance downgrade
Ferragamo +1-2% Q1 organic sales down -2%, EBITDA strong
Inmarsat -2% Negative read from Eutelsat's numbers
Miners UNCH Copper +0.55%, Brent +1.50%, Iron Ore -0.40%, China -0.20%
Royal Dutch -2% An estimated 2.1k barrels of crude leaked in Gulf of Mexico
Salzgitter UNCH Numbers inline with pre-release, reiterate outlook
Talanx +1-2% Numbers slightly better, FY16 outlook confirmed
Tele Columbus M/P Q1 revs slightly light, confirms guidance
Ubisoft +1% Revs 1.394b vs cons 1.387b, confirms 2017

>>> What to look at today - 13th of May 2016

Dow+0.05% S&P-0.02% Nasdaq-0.49% Russell-0.58% VIX 14.41
US Market closed near the flat line after a weak start, rebound was fueled a rebound in oil, vacillating price action in the dollar, a healthy dose of Fed speak, Seven sectors finished in the green with telecom services (+0.7%), materials (+0.5%), and consumer staples (+0.5%) leading the pack. Conversely, health care (-0.6%), technology (-0.4%) and consumer discretionary (-0.3%) finished with the only losses. Volume were above average at 923mil shares. US After Hours SHAK +6%, PBR +1%, DDS-6% following earnings/guidance; TTPH -24% following guidance from FDA. Asian equity markets are tracking the losses on Wall St, where less dovish Fed-speak from Rosengren and Mester underscored the notion that markets are underpricing expectations of further FOMC tightening this year. USD rallied and commodities fell on those remarks. Rosengren endorsed more hikes, stating that early Q2 data is consistent with inflation closer to 2% target. Mester also noted that inflation is rising toward desired levels. BOJ Gov Kuroda delivered a speech for Research Institute of Japan, defending negative rate policy, calling for more time to allow easing to work itself through the economy, but also reiterating the door remains open to more measures. Kuroda did note that risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside and export recovery has paused, but also pointed to 3rd straight year of higher wages, momentum of non-manufacturing, and expectations of improving domestic demand.

Nikkei -1.4% Hang Seng -1.10% CSI -0.19% Shanghai -0.08%

Eur$ 1.1375 CNH 6.5455 CNY 6.5206 JPY 108.78 GBP 1.4439 CHF 0.9715 RUB 64.9396 WTI 46.38 (-0.69%)

S&P -0.32% EuroStoxx -0.50% Dax -0.52% SMI -0.20%

Macro :
- Two Fed Officials Make Their Cases for Interest-Rate Increase
- BOJ will act decisively using its 'ample' tools: Kuroda http://reut.rs/2236nS2
- Gundlach Sees 50% Odds of Fed Move as Treasury Volatility Falls
- Treasurers Worry Draghi’s Bazooka May Chase Away Their Investors
- Auto Sector : EU28 April Car Registrations Rise 9.1% Y/y to 1.274m Units

Keep an eye on :
- ABG SM : Abengoa 1Q Ebitda Drops 85% to EU48M as Activity Slows
- ABI BB : AB InBev, AmBev Agree to Exchange Some LatAm Businesses
- ACS SM : ACS 1Q Net Rises 6.3% to EU220M; Ebitda Falls to EU597M
- ATC NA : Altice to Deliver Commitments in Countries it Operates: Combes
- ATCOA SS : Atlas Copco Sees Mining Margin Improvement by End Year: Barclays
- AAPL US : Apple Backs Didi With $1 Billion in Blow to Uber in China
- POST AV : Austrian Post 1Q Rev, Profit Fall; Sees EU2b FY Rev, Stable Ebit
- B5A GY : Bauer 1Q Ebit Rises, Confirms Full Year Forecast From April
- BC8 GY : Bechtle 1Q Sales Rise 13%, Profit Up 22%; Confirms Outlook
- BMW GY : Brilliance-3.5% in HK
- BOL FP : Bollore 1Q Reported Revenue Rose 9% to EU2.41B
- EN FP : Bouygues 1Q Rev. Matches Ests.; Confirms Full-Year Outlook
- BVI FP : Bureau Veritas 1Q Rev. Falls to EU1.06b, FY Outlook Unchanged
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank to Cut 30,000 Investment Banking Clients: FAZ
- DWNI GY : Deutsche Wohnen 1Q FFO I Improved by 25% to EU0.30/Shr
- EDF FP : EDF: Cost of Hinkley Point Project Won’t Exceed GBP18b
- EDF FP : EDF Credit Rating Cut to A2 From A1 by Moody’; Outlook Negative
- ENI IM : Eni CEO Sees Balance Between Oil Supply and Demand by Yr End
- RF FP : Eurazeo in 1-For-20 Reverse Stock Split
- ENX FP : Euronext in Talks to Acquire 20% of Euroccp for EU14m, Targets Ebitda Margin to Reach 61%-63% by 2019
- ETL FP : Eutelesat Cuts FY Sales Growth Guidance, Plans Strategic Review
- SFER IM : Ferragamo 1Q Ebitda Beats Ests., Names Eraldo Poletto CEO
- FIA1S FH : Finnair should be prepared for M&A; state not to reduce its ownership
- FUM1V FH : Fortum Interested in Buying Ekokem, Kauppalehti Reports
- GFK GY : GfK 1Q Net More Than Doubles; Sees Modest Organic Growth in 2016
- GLEN LN : Glencore, Vitol Near Deal to Buy Iranian Crude: WSJ -- > -3.4% in HK
- PARRO FP : Parrot Reports 1Q Net Loss EU39.1m After Reorganizing for Drones, Resuming Share Buy Back
- P IM : Pirelli Posts 1Q Sales of EU1.4b, Oper Profit of EU215.5m
- PFD LN : FCA Said to Probe Premier Foods Share Price Fluctuation: Sky
- RNO FP : Nissan +4.8% Mitsubishi -4.7%
- RWE GY : RWE Plans to Cut 700 Jobs at Dortmund Subsidiary Westnetz: WAZ
- SAZ GY : Salzgitter Confirms FY Forecast, 1Q Pretax Falls Y/y
- SAN FP : Sanofi Files for HSR Notification Regarding Medivation Deal
- SHA GY : Schaeffler 1Q Net Income EU253m, Up 52% Y/y
- SHP LN : Shire Drops as Funds Sell Baxalta for Baxter Exchange Offer
- SIX2 GY : Sixt 1Q Sales Rise 16%; Pretax Gains 11%; Net Income Drops 16%
- SOI FP : Soitec Starts EU75m Rights Offer
- SON PL : Sonae Buys 50% Stake in Portuguese Clothing Company Salsa
- TLX GY : Talanx 1Q Premiums Decline on FX, Confirms FY Forecast
- TEVA IT : MSCI Says It May Use Teva ADRs If Tel Aviv Volumes Don’t Recover
- TOM2 NA : TomTom CEO Reports Increase in Company Shares Options: Filing
- UBI FP : Total U.S. Video Game Sales, Software Drop Y/y in April: NPD
- UCG IM : UniCredit Capital Target Looking a Bit Less Safe, Barclay Says
- UNI IM : Unipol Targets 2016-2018 Consolidated Net EU1.5b-EU1.7b
- US IM : UnipolSai Sees 2016-2018 Total Consol Net Profits EU1.4b–EU1.6b
- DFG FP : Lyon and Nice airports receive four and three indicative offers respectively
- VIV FP : Canal+ Gets EU97m/Year French Rugby Contract, Les Echos Says
- VIV FP : Total U.S. Video Game Sales, Software Drop Y/y in April: NPD
- VOLVB SS : Volvo CEO Sees ‘Good Opportunities’ in China in Long Term: DI
- YOOX IM : Yoox Net-A-Porter 1Q Rev. Up 14.5% Constant FX

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 13th of May 2016

>>> Up
*CARRIZO OIL & GAS INC RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*DIA RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT EXANE, PT EU5 VS EU4.5
*DRILLISCH RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT ODDO
*ENERGEN RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*FINCANTIERI RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
*LAREDO PETROLEUM INC RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*NYRSTAR RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*UBI RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*ZUMTOBEL RAISED TO BUY VS REDUCE AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX

>>> Down
*EUTELSAT CUT TO REDUCE AT HSBC
*EUTELSAT CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*RSA INSURANCE CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE
*SKANSKA CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT PARETO
*SMITHS GROUP CUT TO HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*TEXTURA CORP CUT TO MARKET PERFORM AT JMP SECURITIES
*UBS CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT SOCIETE GENERALE

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*BRENNTAG REMOVED FROM CONVICTION BUY LIST AT GOLDMAN; STILL BUY
*FIGEAC-AERO RATED NEW BUY AT ODDO
*STORA ENSO ADDED TO CONVICTION SELL LIST AT GOLDMAN
*UPM-KYMMENE EXITS CONVICTION SELL LIST AT GOLDMAN; STILL SELL
*MATTIOLI WOODS RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT MACQUARIE; PT 807P
*VOLKSWAGEN RATED HOLD VS UNDER REVIEW AT BANKHAUS LAMPE

>>> Call
>> Stock
*MYLAN REMOVED FROM CONVICTION BUY LIST AT GOLDMAN; STILL BUY
*ALLERGAN ADDED TO CONVICTION BUY LIST AT GOLDMAN