Closing Market Summary: Consumer Staples and Health Care Weigh on AveragesThe major averages ended Tuesday on a lower note, erasing yesterday's gains. Today's trade featured a hotter-than-expected reading of April CPI (+0.4%; consensus +0.3%), hawkish commentary from FOMC members, a breach of the 50-day simple moving average (2056.90) in the S&P 500 (-0.9%), and the underperformance of consumer discretionary (-1.2%), health care (-1.1%), and technology (-1.1%). The Nasdaq Composite (-1.3%) ended behind both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.0%) and the benchmark index (-0.9%).
Today's session began on a lower note as investors looked to the possible rate hike implications stemming from a hotter-than-expected reading of inflation in April. Meanwhile, Home Depot (HD 132.00, -3.34) came under pressure despite reporting above-consensus quarterly results. Additionally, the market maintained a negative bias after disclosures that George Soros placed bearish bets on the broader market by doubling his put position on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY 204.85, -1.92) and boosting his holdings in gold.
The S&P 500 (-0.9%) tested and briefly defended support near its 50-day simple moving average (2056.90) in the late morning, but was unable to do so again when that level was re-tested in the afternoon. As a result, the major averages extended their losses through the final hour. Nine sectors ended in the red with consumer staples (-1.9%), utilities (-1.7%), consumer discretionary (-1.2%), and health care (-1.1%) rounding out the leaderboard.
In the consumer staples sector (-1.9%), Kraft Heinz (KHC 82.16, -3.71) displayed relative weakness, losing 4.3%. Meanwhile, Hormel Foods (HRL 38.80, -1.44) ended lower by 3.6% ahead of tomorrow morning's earnings report. The broader sector trimmed its May gain to 0.3%, trailing only technology (-1.1%; month-to-date +0.4%) over that time.
Drug manufacturers displayed relative weakness in the health care space (-1.1%) as the sub-group moved lower in sympathy with AbbVie (ABBV 60.25, -2.20). The company fell 3.5% after receiving a negative ruling regarding its patent on a dosing regimen involving its rheumatoid arthritis medication. Conversely, Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX 29.08, +2.03) gained 7.5% after Citron's Andrew Left confirmed that he has opened a long position in the stock.
In the consumer discretionary space (-1.2%), Home Depot declined 2.5% despite topping analysts' estimates for the quarter. Fellow home improvement name Lowe's (LOW 76.07, -0.93) slipped 1.2% ahead of tomorrow morning's quarterly report.
Interest rate-sensitive real estate investment trusts (REITs) underperformed in the financial sector (-0.7%). The sub-group was pressured by the hotter-than-expected CPI reading and hawkish commentary from FOMC members. San Francisco Fed President Williams, Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, and Dallas Fed President Kaplan each said that an interest rate hike may be warranted sooner than the market currently anticipates one. For the June Fed meeting, the likelihood of a rate increase, as measured by the fed funds futures market, jumped to 15.0% from yesterday's 3.8% estimate.
The U.S. Dollar Index (94.52, -0.01) ended slightly lower as the euro and the yen ended flat against the greenback. The dollar/yen pair finished higher by 0.1% at 109.09 while the euro ended at 1.1316 against the dollar. Separately, pound sterling gained 0.4% against the dollar (1.4462).
The Treasury complex ended on a mixed note with the yield on the 10-yr note ending higher by one basis point at 1.76%.
Today's participation was above the recent averages as more than 1.02 billion shares changed hands on the NYSE floor.
Today's economic data included April Core CPI, April Housing Starts, April Building Permits, April Industrial Production, and April Capacity Utilization:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April produced a headline surprise, with total CPI rising 0.4% month-over-month (consensus +0.3%) and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increasing 0.2% as expected.
- The seasonally adjusted all items increase was broad-based, with the indexes for food, energy, and all items less food and energy rising in April.
- The move, though, was powered by a 3.4% increase in the index for energy, which featured an 8.1% jump in the gasoline index.
- A 0.3% increase in the shelter index and a 0.3% increase in the medical care services index were big drivers of the 0.2% increase in core CPI; however, those increases were mitigated somewhat by a 0.3% decline in the indexes for new vehicles, used cars and trucks, and apparel.
- Over the last 12 months, CPI is up 1.1% on an unadjusted basis versus 0.9% in March. Core CPI is up 2.1% versus a 2.2% increase seen in March.
- It's possible the Fed could use the uptrend in CPI as a basis for raising the fed funds rate in June, although we suspect the fed funds futures market still isn't going to be buying into that notion.
- Housing starts increased 6.6% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.172 million units (consensus 1.135 mln). The starts rate for March was revised up to 1.099 million from 1.089 million.
- Building permits increased 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.116 million (consensus 1.130 mln). Permits for March were revised down to 1.077 million from 1.086 million.
- Total housing starts are 1.7% below the April 2015 rate while total building permits are 5.3% below the April 2015 estimate.
- Single-family starts increased 3.3% in April to 778,000, led by a 12.8% gain in the Midwest and a 9.0% increase in the South. Both the Northeast (-1.8%) and the West (-14.1%) saw a drop in single-family starts.
- The rise in permits was driven by an 8.0% increase in permits for multi-family units, although permits for single-family units increased 1.5%.
- The number of homes under construction increased to 999,000 from 994,000 in March. This will be a positive input for Q2 GDP forecasts.
- After a string of largely disappointing data, the Industrial Production report for April proved to be a positive surprise as production increased at a faster than expected rate of 0.7% (consensus 0.2%).
- Capacity utilization also surprised to the upside, coming in at 75.4% (consensus 75.0%).
- The April reading represented the first increase in three months while the previous month's reading was revised down to -0.9% from -0.6%. On a year-over-year basis, industrial production is down 1.1%.
- Most notably, the utilities index spiked 5.8% while the final products index increased 1.0% on the back of a 1.2% growth in consumer goods.
- The only category that registered a decline in April was mining. The mining index fell 2.3% and is now down 13.4% year-over-year. The decline in mining was not enough to offset the spike in utilities, leading to a 0.3% uptick in manufacturing output.
- Looking at capacity utilization, total industry capacity grew 1.0% year-over-year with utilities showing the largest sequential increase (up 420 basis points to 78.6%). Mining capacity utilization declined to 72.5% from 74.0%, which represents a new record low.
Tomorrow's economic data will be limited to the 7:00 ET release of the weekly MBA Mortgage Index; however, the the Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes from the April 27 meeting at 14:00 ET.
- Nasdaq Composite -5.8% YTD
- Russell 2000 -3.0% YTD
- S&P 500 +0.2% YTD
- Dow Jones +0.6% YTD
Flood of Foreign Cash Flattens Yield Curve
Why a popular market gauge of U.S. economic health has become more ambiguous
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A wave of money fleeing low or negative interest rates overseas is helping to push down long-term Treasury yields, hobbling a popular market gauge of U.S. economic health.
The “yield curve,” measuring the premium investors receive for the risk of holding 10-year U.S. government debt, rather than two-year notes, on Tuesday declined to 0.94 percentage point, the lowest since December 2007. A year ago, the gap was 1.65 points.
The curve now is said to be flattening, a condition that bears scrutiny because it could lead to a situation in which short-term rates exceed long-term ones. That happened in the U.S. in June 2007, shortly before the financial crisis, and in December 2000, ahead of the 2001 downturn.
Yet some traders and portfolio managers caution that the yield curve’s predictive value may have fallen victim to the age of easy money, in which the flow of cash around the world dwarfs the economic trends that market indicators have long been taken to illuminate.
While many U.S. investors doubt the 10-year Treasury is a bargain at its recent yield of 1.75%, investors in Europe, Japan and elsewhere have been large buyers because yields available in their home countries are even lower. The pool of negative-yield bonds hit $9 trillion this month.
The U.S. yield curve is "distorted because of negative interest rates abroad,’’ said Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank Securities.
The failure of U.S. yields to increase in recent months, even as the recession scare early in the year ebbed, has struck many investors as a sign of foreign capital’s impact.
The 10-year yield has ticked lower this month, although U.S. retail sales and consumer-sentiment data showed strength and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecasting service predicted that second-quarter U.S. economic growth would hit 2.5%. Stronger data is typically associated with higher bond yields because faster economic growth tends to push up inflation.
Craig Brothers, a portfolio manager at Bel Air Investment Advisors, still keeps measures of the yield curve prominently displayed on his Bloomberg terminal. But he looks at it less as an indicator of the economy than as a measure of where investors are putting money.
“The bond market had better predictive powers in the past than it does now,” said Mr. Brothers, who manages $3 billion of mostly municipal bonds in Los Angeles.
Other factors play a role, too. The yield curve tends to flatten early in a Federal Reserve tightening cycle, as short-term yields rise in response to prospective rate increases while long-term yields rise more slowly, alongside the gathering pace of economic activity.
About half of the flattening over the past year is because of an increase in the two-year rate, reflecting expectations for Fed rate increases this year. Two-year Treasury debt closed Tuesday at a yield of 0.823%, up from 0.55% a year earlier.
Momentum also plays a role. Bond trading increasingly is driven by hedge funds and principal trading firms using superfast computers. One popular strategy, known as trend following, can lead to a cycle in which bond purchases drive down yields, begetting further purchases that further drive down yields and so on.
Traders say that while this process can push yields down further than economic considerations would seem to demand, the resulting gap is vulnerable to sudden reversals.
"The flattening yield-curve trade is crowded,’’ said Stanley Sun, interest rates strategist at Nomura Securities International in New York.
Another underrated factor: diminished supply of Treasurys as improving U.S. economic health reduces government-funding needs. In April 2016, net issuance of Treasury notes and bonds was negative for the first time since 2008, according to Mr. Slok at Deutsche Bank Securities.
History underlines how difficult it can be to get a handle on the swirling dynamics of this market.
A decade ago, the U.S. was running larger and larger current-account deficits and many government bonds were being purchased by China, which at the time was using U.S. Treasury purchases to help hold down the value of its currency, the yuan, and make its exports more competitive on global markets.
This arrangement fueled fears that the U.S. would be vulnerable to a financing crisis if China began selling its holdings, an argument that bearish bond investors contended would vindicate bets against Treasury debt.
Those concerns came to naught in the financial meltdown of 2008, which instead ignited a powerful rally in prices of safe bonds.
Eight years later, China is selling its Treasurys, but few expect yields to spike imminently, reflecting in part the deflationary concerns driving the economic slowdown in the world’s most-populous nation. Meanwhile private investors have stepped into the breach.
On a net basis, foreign central banks sold $302 billion U.S. Treasury notes and bonds over the 12 months through March this year, according to Deutsche Bank Securities. Foreign private investors bought a net $317 billion.
Don Ellenberger, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Federated Investors, says long-term bond yields will likely remain low as the world struggles to adjust to soft growth, even without a U.S. recession.
“My thought is that we are going to continue to see the curve flatten, but it is going to be a slow grind over a longer period of time,” he said.
Canyon Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: new position in SUNE; increased position in YHOO; closed position in FCX, VSLR
Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:
- New positions in: PNC (~0.1 mln shares), SUNE (49,360)
- Increased positions in: YHOO (to ~11.1 mln shares from ~2.3 mln shares)
- Decreased positions in: CZR (to ~3 mln shares from ~5 mln shares), CDK (to ~0.3 mln from ~1.1 mln), CMCS.A (to ~3.3 mln from ~6.9 mln), MDT (to ~0.8 mln from ~1.5 mln), SC (to ~2.3 mln from ~3.7 mln), SCTY (to 49378 from ~1.3 mln)
- Closed positions in: FCX (from ~1.6 mln shares), IBN (from ~5.8 mln), SNOW (from ~0.6 mln), VSLR (from ~7.6 mln), GLBL (from ~0.7 mln), BID (from ~1.2 mln)
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