>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 6th of October 2016

>>> Up
*AFRICA OIL RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*ASSA ABLOY RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*BASF RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*CRODA RAISED TO BUY VS SELL AT UBS
*FLSMIDTH RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*JOHN MENZIES RAISED TO ADD VS HOLD AT PEEL HUNT
*SCHNEIDER RAISED TO CL-BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*SYMRISE RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS

>>> Down
*ABERDEEN CUT TO UNDERPERFORM AT RBC
*AIR LIQUIDE CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*APPLUS SERVICES CUT TO ’NEUTRAL’ AT EXANE BNP PARIBAS
*BARLOWORLD CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT MACQUARIE
*DUERR RATED NEW SELL AT GOLDMAN, PT EU60
*FINECOBANK CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT MEDIOBANCA
*METSO CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*SMITH & NEPHEW CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*TESCO CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*ANDRITZ RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN, PT EU46
*DUERR RATED NEW SELL AT GOLDMAN, PT EU60
*ELECTROLUX RATED NEW CONVICTION BUY AT GOLDMAN; PT SEK280
*GEA RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN, PT EU52
*GKN RATED NEW ’BUY’ AT HSBC
*HOLMEN RATED NEW SELL AT DNB MARKETS, PT SEK290
*METSA BOARD RATED NEW BUY AT DNB MARKETS, PT EU5.90
*SUNRISE RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES; PT CHF88
*SWISSCOM RATED NEW HOLD AT JEFFERIES; PT CHF449

>>> Call
>> Stock
*ELECTROLUX RATED NEW CONVICTION BUY AT GOLDMAN; PT SEK280
*SCHNEIDER RAISED TO CL-BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
>> Sector
*EUROPE EX-U.K. RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERWEIGHT AT CITI
*EUROPEAN TELECOMS CUT TO NEUTRAL AT CITI
*EUROPEAN BANKS RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT CITI

>>> Italian 'good banks' may see renewed bids from private equity if talks with

Italian 'good banks' may see renewed bids from private equity if talks with UBI Banca falls through - report (translated)

Private equity firms could re-enter the race for four Italian “good banks” restructured in a government-backed bailout, Italian-language daily Il Sole 24 Ore reported.
The unsourced report said that Apollo [NYSE: APO] and Lone Star, which made offers for Banca Etruria, Banca Marche,CariFe and CariChieti in the summer, could return to the table if UBI Banca withdraws from the bidding.
The report said that other private equity firms could also become involved.
The report further noted that UBI Banca is interested in Banca Etruria, Banca Marche and CariChieti. The report said that UBI's stance on the dossier is likely to become clearer by next week.

Marianne : Air France : les inquiétantes tentatives de sabotage de salariés radi


Air France : les inquiétantes tentatives de sabotage de salariés radicalisés

La sécurité est-elle garantie sur les vols d’Air France ? "Le Canard Enchaîné" de ce mercredi 5 octobre rapporte que la compagnie aérienne fait face à une multitude d’incidents en lien avec la montée de l’islamisme radical au sein de ses effectifs.

"Allah Akbar" tagué sur les trappes de remplissage de kérosène d’une quarantaine d’appareils, des toboggans d’évacuation trafiqués dans un atelier de maintenance, des annonces de sécurité programmées en arabe... La compagnie Air France fait face à une multitude d’incidents dus à la montée de l’islamisme radical au sein de ses effectifs, révèle le Canard Enchaîné ce mercredi 5 octobre. Les faits signalés n’ont fait aucune victime mais auraient pu se révéler très dangereux aussi bien pour les passagers que pour le personnel…
En témoignent les "anomalies" constatées "à plusieurs reprises" sur certains avions dont le "moteur relais" censé contrôler les réacteurs depuis le cockpit présentait des "avaries". "Heureusement,explique le Palmipède, qu’au moment de la check list, l’alarme a fonctionné", et qu’à "chaque fois l’anomalie a été détectée."Après enquête, le suspect identifié parmi les employés du groupe par les services de renseignement, un Français converti, aurait pris la fuite au Yémen, se sentant surveillé.
Inquiétant, d’autant que sur le tarmac, l’individu aurait conservé "quelques amis." Deux d’entre eux sont d’ailleurs soupçonnés d’être à l’origine d'autres dommages volontairement causés, dans un atelier de maintenance, sur des toboggans d’évacuation. Et que l'on savait déjà que des agents radicalisés ont soigneusement noyauté, depuis des années, les syndicats de l'entreprise. "La radicalisation des musulmans pratiquant un islam rigoriste date de la fin des années 2000 avec la montée du communautarisme au sein même des syndicats", expliquait ainsi à , dans une longue enquête parue en janvier dernier, Jean-Claude Chapon, délégué syndicat central CFDT.

Le problème de la sécurité des sous-traitants
La sécurité est-elle alors garantie sur les vols d’Air France ? Ces divers incidents interrogent, malgré un dispositif de surveillance renforcé. Depuis le printemps, une trentaine d’agents du renseignement parisien ont en effet renforcé les équipes de la sécurité intérieure (DGSI) en poste à Roissy. Des dizaines de badges d’accès ont par ailleurs été retirés aux salariés de la plateforme aéroportuaire de Roissy, tous "passés au crible" par les services avant d’être embauché. Sur les 90.000 salariés des 900 entreprises qui gravitent autour de la compagnie, une dizaine de personnes seraient également actuellement sous surveillance.
Problème, les ateliers des sous-traitants d'Air France ne font pas l’objet des mêmes mesures de sécurité. Ainsi en est-il du site d’Air France Industries, basé à Villeneuve-le-Roi, dans le Val-de-Marne, chargé d’inspecter la qualité de certains équipements de sécurité. Sans badges d’accès requis, aucune enquête sur le profil et le passé judiciaire des salariés n’est dilligentée. "Nos personnels comme nos clients sont en sécurité absolue", assure toutefois la direction de la compagnie aérienne au Canard Enchaîné.

>>> Asian Update

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: Australia trade deficit narrows; Twitter suitors reportedly bow out; Fed's Fischer unfazed by risks to financial stability from low rates

***Notes/Observations***
- US stocks closed higher after two days of losses, helped by continued rebound in crude oil prices pushing toward the $50 mark. Energy names outperformed while REITs joined Utilities as most heavily sold - investors are heading for the exits on high-dividend defensive names given the rise in bond yields. More constructive US economic data has kept Fed funds probabilities of a 2016 hike above 60%.
- Twitter reversed its one day of gains, falling over 10% afterhours on Recode reports that Google, Apple, and Disney have no interest in making a bid. CRM has not been ruled out among the primary field of suitors, but would likely need financing. Bidding process expected to conclude on Oct 27.
- Australia Aug trade deficit narrowed to A$2B - smallest in 4 months, though terms of trade have been in the red for 28 straight months. Both exports and imports were flat and shipments to China fell to 4-month lows, but exports of iron ore hit 20-month highs and crude oil a 9-month high. AUD got a brief 10pip bounce on the release before coming under pressure. Volatility in FX majors was generally subdued with Friday's non-farm payrolls on the radar.
- Fed vice chair Fischer urged greater fiscal response to potential economic malaise associated with lower neutral interest rates; Does not believe that persistent low rates are a threat to financial stability and also sees US financial sector resilient to stress.
- In key Asia corporates, Samsung Electronics rallied after receiving a letter from Elliott Affiliates urging restructuring and greater capital return - company is set to report prelim Q3 results tomorrow. Fujitsu and Lenovo rallied on speculation of a tie-up in PC operations.

***Top US session headlines***
- (US) SEPT ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: 154K V 165KE
- (US) SEPT FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 52.3 V 51.9E (highest since April)
- (US) AUG FACTORY ORDERS: +0.2% V -0.2%E (and inventories rise for two consecutive months)
- (US) DOE CRUDE: -3M V +1.5ME; GASOLINE: -0.2M V +0ME; DISTILLATE: -2.4M V -1ME
- (US) Fed's Lacker (hawk, non-voter): there is a strong case to raise rates more rapidly

***US markets on close: Dow +0.6%, S&P500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.5%***
- Best Sector in S&P500: Basic Materials
- Worst Sector in S&P500: Utilities
- Biggest gainers: CHK +6.8%, RIG +5.9%, ENDP +5.1%, SIG +4.6%, FOSL +4.5%
- Biggest losers: CRM -5.8%, AYI -4.7%, AIV -4.0%, EXR -3.3%, AVB -3.2%

***VIX 12.99 (-0.4pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 0.84% (+1bp), 10-yr 1.72% (+3bp), 30-yr 2.44% (+3bp)***

***US movers afterhours***
- ZUMZ +13.3%: Reports Sep SSS +6.3% v -0.4%e; Raises Q3 $0.29-0.30 v $0.24e, R$216-217M v $210Me (prior $0.21-0.26, R$209-213)
- JD +5.5%: Wal-Mart discloses amended passive 10.8% stake (raised from 5.9% in June) - 13G/A filing
- LRCX -1.2%, KLAC -3.7%: Lam terminates proposed combination with KLA-Tencor
- YUM -2.2%: Reports Q3 $1.09 v $1.09e, R$3.32B v $3.52Be; Raises FY16 op profit growth guidance to at least 15% from 14% prior forecast
- RECN -3.1%: Reports Q1 $0.15 v $0.17e, R$143M v $143Me (2 est)
- TWTR -9.2%: Google does not plan to make an offer for Twitter; Apple bid also said to be unlikely - recode

***After extended session***
- TPC: Muddy Waters' Carson Block said to discuss shorting the company - financial press
- COST: Reports Sept SSS (ex-gas) +1% y/y; US SSS (ex-gas) 0% y/y
- TWTR: Follow Up: Disney also not planning to make an offer for Twitter - recode

***Equity Futures (00:00ET): S&P e-mini -0.1%, Dax flat, FTSE100 flat***

***FX / Commodities ranges (00:00ET):***
- EUR 1.12-1.1215; JPY 103.35-103.60; AUD 0.76-0.7620, NZD 0.7150-0.7180
- Gold -0.1% at 1,268/oz; Oil -0.7% at $49.50/brl; Copper flat at $2.17/lb

***Asian Equity Markets (00:00ET)***
- Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng +0.4%, ASX +0.5%, Shanghai closed, Kospi 0.3%

***Key economic data:***
- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG TRADE BALANCE (A$): -2.0B V -2.3BE (28th consecutive deficit; smallest deficit in 4 months)
- (NZ) New Zealand Sept ANZ Truckometer Heavy (heavy traffic) M/M: -1.4% v +6.8% prior

***Speakers / Press / Fixed Income***
China:
- (CN) Fitch: More China cities to take property curb measures
- (CN) Nomura: Unlikely that the latest property curbs in China will cause property bubble to burst - Chinese press
- (CN) HSBC expects PBOC to cut RRR by additional 50bps this year and 200bps in 2017 - financial press
- (CN) China box office revenue during Oct 1st-3rd fell to CNY774M, -10% y/y - China Daily

Japan:
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Ishihara: Time will come when we ask public for a sales-tax hike - TV interview
- JGB: Japan Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells ¥400B in 0.1% CPI-linked 10-yr JGB auction, bid-to-cover ratio 3.21x (3-year high) v 2.85x prior
- (JP) Japan investors sold net ¥636.8B in foreign bonds v bought ¥1.21T in prior week; Foreign investors bought net ¥251.7B in Japan stocks v sold ¥201.5B in Japan stocks in prior week

***Asia movers***
- Consumer discretionary: Modern Land China Co 1107.HK +2.7% (Sept result); Aeon Co 8267.JP -0.4% (H1 result); Hanon Systems 018880.KR -3.6% (strike at Hyundai Motor); ABC-MART 2670.JP -6.8% (H1 result)
- Financials: Times Property Holdings 1233.HK +0.4% (YTD result); Bank of Queensland BOQ.AU -2.5% (FY16 result); Mitsui Fudosan Co 8801.JP +1.2% (result speculation)
- Industrials: Fantasia Holdings Group Co. 1777.HK -0.9% (Sept result); China Cosco Holdings Co 1919.HK +5.6%, China Shipping Development 1138.HK +5.6% (merger speculation)
- Technology: Lenovo Group 992.HK +2.5%, Fujitsu 6702.JP +6.7% (Lenovo may buy PC operations form Fujitsu); Samsung Electronics 005930.KR +3.5% (Elliott proposals); Otsuka Corp 4768.JP +5.0% (Tier 1 firm raised to Buy)
- Materials: St Barbara SBM.AU -4.1% (Q1 result)
- Energy: Inpex Corp 1605.JP +3.7% (oil price rising)
- Healthcare: Askul Corp.2678.JP +3.2% (JPMorgan raised PT); Australian Pharma API.AU +4.8% (raises guidance); Estia Health EHE.AU -5.5% (guidance)

>>> US After Hours

After Hours Summary: ZUMZ +13% following SSS/guidance, semi/tech names higher following upside Dialog Semi sales... YUM -2.2% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance/SSS: ALQA +27.4% (also announced plans to acquire the business of Soluble Systems), ZUMZ +13% (reports September same store sales +6.3% vs -1.8% September last year and -1.5% last month; raising Q3 EPS and sales guidance above consensus)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: PHMD +21.7% (PhotoMedex to sell its consumer products business to ICTV Brands for $9.5 mln), SCYX +16.7% (announces complete results from two phase 2 Studies of Oral SCY-078 in patients with candida spp. infections; study results confirm overall antifungal activity of oral SCY-078 in patients with candida infections), JD +5.5% (Wal-Mart increases passive stake), SMTC +1.8% (Semtech confirms agreement with Comcast to deploy trial LoRaWAN network in the United States, deal provides warrant for Comcast to acquire up to $30 mln of common stock; co updates Q3 guidance as a result), MET +1.1% (confirms that Brighthouse Financial filed a Registration Statement on Form 10 with the SEC), AA +0.8% (completes 1:3 reverse stock split, shares to begin trading on split-adjusted basis tomorrow morning)

Semiconductor/tech names higher following upside Dialog Semi sales: AVGO +0.6%, NXPI +0.5%, QCOM +0.4%, AAPL +0.3% (higher on Dialog Semi upside sales guidance),

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: RECN -3.1% (also Anthony Cherbak announces his retirement as President and Chief Executive Officer due to health considerations), YUM -2.2%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: ALNY -42.3% (to discontinue Revusiran development, says decision does not impact Patisiran or any other RNAi therapeutic program in development), IDRA -11.9% (commences $50 mln common stock offering), MDCO -11.7% (updates on the ongoing ORION-1 study of PCSK9si; anticipates that top-line data from Day 180 follow-up for up to 200 patients will be presented at the Late-Breaking Clinical Trial Session), IONS -3.9% and ARWR -3.6% (ALNY sympathy), VRA -0.7% (lower on light volume following downgrade at KeyBanc)

>>> U Close Dow +0.62% S&P +0.43% Nasdaq +0.50% Russell +0.69%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Rebound as Rising Oil Boosts Risk Appetite

The stock market ended the midweek affair on a higher note as a rally in crude oil futures and financials (+1.5%) outweighed some lingering rate jitters. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.6%) finished ahead of the Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) and the S&P 500 (+0.4%).

Index futures climbed in pre-market action, receiving a boost after the release of a weaker-than-expected reading of the ADP National Employment Report for September. The report indicated the addition of 154,000 (consensus 171k) private sector payrolls in September, but it is worth remembering that the Employment Situation Report, which will be released on Friday, carries a lot more influence. The September Employment Situation Report will be released on Friday at 8:30 ET (consensus 176,000). The hiring landscape remains in focus as participants continue refining their rate hike expectations.

Interest rates edged higher, keeping a lid on the market after the ISM Services Index for September handily beat expectations. The index jumped to 57.1 (consensus 52.8) from 51.4 in August. The Treasury complex sold off in response as yields moved higher across the curve. The increase in interest rates pressured defensively-oriented real estate (-1.9%), telecom services (-1.8%), utilities (-0.3%), and consumer staples (-0.2%) for a second straight session.

A rally in crude oil also contributed to strength in growth-sensitive sectors. The energy component extended an early lead after the Department of Energy confirmed a positive reading from the American Petroleum Institute. The EIA reported that crude oil stockpiles declined by 2.97 million barrels (consensus: +2.56 million) while gasoline inventories rose by 0.22 million barrels (consensus: +0.70 million). WTI crude finished the day higher by 2.2% ($49.76/bbl; +$1.08). 

The benchmark index finished off its session high, testing technical resistance near the 2160 price level. Seven sectors settled in the green with financials (+1.5%), energy (+1.4%), and materials (+0.7%) leading the advance.

The heavily-weighted financial (+1.5%) sector topped the leaderboard as steepening in the yield curve improved the earnings potential for the group. The spread between the 2-yr yield and 10-yr yield expanded to 89 basis points. Money center banks and life insurance names outperformed as MetLife (MET 45.99, +1.12) and Wells Fargo (WFC 44.99, +1.24) gained 2.5% and 2.8%, respectively. The broader group has gained 1.4% this week, leading the remaining sectors on the weekly leaderboard. 

The high-beta chipmakers outperformed in the technology sector (+0.4%), evidenced by the 0.7% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Broadcom (AVGO 173.48, +4.43) gained 2.6% after receiving an "Outperform" designation at Bernstein. Micron (MU 17.70 -0.10) settled modestly lower as a disappointing gross interest margin masked a bottom-line beat. Separately, Twitter (TWTR 24.87, +1.35) gained 5.7% after reports indicated that the company could receive takeover bids as early as this week. Recall that Alphabet (GOOG 776.47, +0.04), Microsoft (MSFT 57.64, +0.40), Disney (DIS 92.45, +0.14), and Salesforce.com (CRM 68.42, -4.21) have previously been cited as potential suitors.

Retail names displayed relative strength in the consumer discretionary space (+0.4%) as the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 43.99, +0.58) gained 1.3%. In the group, apparel retailers led as Nordstrom (JWN 53.00, +1.35) and Gap (GPS 22.53, +0.75) moved higher by 2.6% and 3.4%, respectively. Conversely, discount retailers underperformed for a second session as Dollar Tree (DLTR 75.12, -1.31) weighed on the group. 

Treasuries finished near their worst levels as yields rose through the curve. The yield on the 2-yr note increased one basis point (0.83%) while the yield on the benchmark 10-yr note rose two basis points (1.70%).

Today's participation was above the recent average as more than 962 million shares changed hands on the NYSE floor.

Today's economic data included weekly MBA Mortgage Index, ADP Employment Report for September, August Trade Balance, Factory Orders for August, and ISM Services for September:

  • The MBA Mortgage Index indicated that mortgage applications rose 2.9% in the week ending October 1. This followed a 0.7% decline in the prior week.
  • ADP said an estimated 154,000 positions (consensus 171,000) were added to private sector payrolls in September, almost all of which came from the Service-providing sector (151,000).
    • Small businesses added 34,000 jobs, midsized businesses increased their payrolls by 56,000 positions, and large businesses added 64,000 jobs.
  • The Trade balance report for August showed a widening in the deficit to $40.7 billion (consensus -$39.1 billion) from $39.5 billion in July.
  • Factory orders increased 0.2% in August (consensus +0.1%) following a downwardly revised 1.4% increase (from 1.9%) in July. Total manufacturing shipments were unchanged after declining 0.4% in July.
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI increased to 57.1 in September (consensus 52.8) from 51.4 in August.
    • September marked the highest reading for the index since October 2015.

Tomorrow's economic data will be limited to September Challenger Job Cuts and weekly initial claims (consensus 258k), which will be released at 7:30 ET and 8:30 ET, respectively. 

  • Russell 2000: +9.9% YTD
  • Nasdaq: +6.2% YTD
  • S&P 500: +5.7% YTD
  • Dow Jones: +4.9% YTD

(BofA-ML) Exploring the Dark Side - Is It About Time for a Recession

The trend is your friend (until it points to a 2017 recession)

 

Our economists do not expect a recession in the coming year, forecasting slow and

steady growth in the US. But over seven years and more than 270% into this bull market,

one wonders how much longer this cycle can last. We have not yet found a model that

accurately forecast recessions, and even if we did, not all recessions result in bear

markets. But in examining some of some of our favorite indicators’ recent trends, we did

find evidence for an imminent recession. While the range of signals is wide, in aggregate

they do suggest that, if data were to continue to weaken in line with the recent pace,

history would point to a recession in the second half of 2017. Admittedly, other macro

indicators, such as consumer confidence and initial jobless claims, still point to healthy

growth. But historically, equity returns have been strongest prior to the peak in building

permit issuance growth (2012 in this cycle) and the probability of a bear market has

been high when the yield curve was inverted (not until 2018 based on the trend).

 

Who needs euphoria when you have complacency?

 

One ingredient seemingly missing from this bull market has been investor euphoria. Wall

Street sentiment is more bearish on stocks now than it was during the Financial Crisis, and

fund managers continue to sit on high cash levels. However, actual holdings data suggest

that positioning may not be so defensive. Large cap active managers have the highest

cyclical exposure since 2012 and their overall beta exposure is near cycle highs. Meanwhile,

equity funds (mostly passive) have seen over $100bn more inflows over the last five years

than during the same period ahead of the 2007 market peak. We also estimate that US

household equity exposure has risen to levels similar to where markets peaked in 2007. With

the stock market having returned roughly three times as much as bonds this cycle, much of

the increase in households’ equity allocation was likely the result of outperformance rather

than a big shift in preference for stocks. But whether deliberately or unwittingly, investors

have 50% more equity exposure than the 60-year average.

 

Selling too early at the end of a bull market can be painful

 

Even if we are in the later stages of this bull market, and despite our concerns regarding a

near-term market correction, we caution long-term oriented investors against reducing their

equity exposure too much. History would suggest that unless you can pinpoint the peaks and

troughs of the market to within 12-month timeframes, you would have been better off

staying invested. Some of the best returns often come at the end of bull markets, and these

gains are usually enough to offset the subsequent losses. So while today’s elevated

valuations suggest that we may have pulled forward part of the market’s future returns, our

3500 S&P 500 target for the year 2025 suggests that investors can still achieve mid-single

digit annual returns from stocks in the coming decade.

 

Buy Quality for the near term and the long term

 

But what types of equities you own is important, and we continue to recommend that

investors take advantage of the low quality rally to rotate into higher quality companies

with solid balance sheets. Not only are high quality stocks cheap, underowned and one

of the best hedges against rising volatility, but high quality stocks have never had

negative returns over any 10-year period in our history back to 1986 — even excluding

dividends (which have accounted for over 30% of the S&P 500’s total returns over the

last decade). History suggests that while high quality stocks often lag in late bull market

rallies, they usually make up for it when the cycle rolls over.