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Une tranche nucléaire délivre en effet une marge opérationnelle voisine de 200 millions d’euros par an, et c’est donc au moins un impact de ce montant qu’il faudrait envisager sur les comptes, compte tenu de ce nouvel arrêt groupé.

A moins que des conditions météorologiques favorables, comme celles observées en ce moment, permettent d’en absorber l’impact. En tous cas EDF n’a pas prévu, à ce stade, de modifier ses prévisions de résultat financier sur l’exercice en cours.

Volkswagen is hoping for a first agreement with a US court to deal with the multi-billion dollar impact of diesel affair. The dispute with almost 500,000 motorists could be completed today.

Dusseldorf This Tuesday could for the Volkswagen Group will be an extremely important day in the company's history. A US federal court in San Francisco renegotiated a negotiated in summer compared Proposal for US motorists who had bought a diesel vehicle with manipulated emissions control. In this compromise procedure also environmental authorities and the US Department of Justice were involved.

For this Tuesday US Judge Charles Breyer has scheduled the final final hearing in this month-long comparison process. It is the decision-making power of the judge to terminate the procedure and to make legally. For Volkswagen , it would be extremely important, a first really completed procedures in the United States to be able to show in the diesel affair.

It would be a milestone for the Wolfsburg-based group, because the disputes mainly focus on the United States. The US courts are particularly feared in Europe keep the legal ramifications far limited.

The prospects are good that Volkswagen can at least reach a conclusion in this process. Already the end of June, as the details of this comparison were known, had Justice Breyer argued for a speedy end. He described the compromise agreement reached at the time as "fair, reasonable and sensible".

In detail it comes to compensation for affected almost 500,000 motorists in the US. Volkswagen presents ten billion dollars ready for aggrieved customers. In addition, the Wolfsburg have agreed to build another almost five billion dollars for environmental projects and for building a network of electric charging stations.

The real estate boom assumes more and more characteristics of a bubble. In Cologne, the prices for detached houses over ten percent rise, land prices in Munich by almost 17 percent. A form of housing grew more strongly for years.

Dusseldorf Rent brake, building permits on a 16-year high, more and more finished apartments - but the upward trend on the German real estate market seems all that hard to dampen. Rents and prices are rising in many places higher and higher, as if there were inherently only one direction.

The broker association IVD has evaluated the property prices in 370 German cities. One result: In none of the cities in the five size classes from 30 000 to more than 500 000 inhabitants, prices for apartments middle Wohnwert average climbed less than five percent. In cities with more than half a million inhabitants, the price increases were most severe. For existing homes had 2016 there nearly 9.5 percent more are paid for new construction 7.6 percent. What sounds dramatic, but is just a continuation of the trends from previous years. For existing homes, prices climbed from 2014 in 2015 to 7.5 percent and for new construction apartments by almost 7.7 percent.

For years, the prices for condominiums rising faster than for single-family homes. This has not changed this year. The understandable reason: apartments are in demand from both owner occupiers as from investors. Many people swing on the search for the right retirement from government bonds to concrete and stones around. You want to rent instead of interest cash and experiencing how the apartment values ​​rise quickly.

"The prices have increased more than in the past five years," says Jürgen M. Schick, president of the IVD. "The bigger the city, the higher the prices."

Figures from market research institute Empirica confirm this trend. The Institute has established indices for price developments of condominiums, single-family homes and rentals. The index for apartments increased in the third quarter of 2016 over the previous quarter by 2.2 percent, which. Family-by 1.8 percent and 0.9 percent, the rent But this also means that can not be buyers of condominiums from falling rental yields slow. Whether owner-occupier or owner - all have to live with the phenomenon that the residential property prices are rising faster than rents and income.

Meanwhile, experts warn against overheating. "The housing boom will increasingly features a bubble," says Ralph Solveen from Commerzbank. What is problematic, that charges are unhooked from other important factors. "Since 2010 prices are rising faster than rents, consumer prices and household income." And at the cheap money the ECB would be unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, says Solveen. But the interest rates on mortgage loans barely could fall, take on the risk of a correction in prices to rise further.

but not nationwide - Helaba expert Mitropoulos sees especially in big cities exaggerations. As a typical member of a bubble also lacks a fast growing real estate lending. The increase in prices can be explained in large part by the development of supply and demand. And it would be so fast to change anything as to the low interest rates. Thus, the market will gradually although correction vulnerable, but short-term relaxation is not likely in sight. "The difficult situation in the German housing market will continue for some time."

Although the prices for condominiums rise even faster than for detached houses, so the price increase for houses has accelerated this year. At most, the difference in inflation rates for the previous year in cities the size class is 250000-500000 inhabitants. There had in 2016 compared to 2015 around 6.4 percent are paid. A year earlier, the rate of increase was around four percent. "Due to the moderate price increases in previous years, now a catch-up effect is also here."

Each statistic is working with average values, but has its pitfalls. Statisticians describe like that. A man who sticks his head in the oven and at the same time puts the feet in the freezer, although perhaps a healthy average temperature, but no chance of survival for a longer time. How far diverge inflation rates even in large cities, show the individual values ​​collected by the IVD.

In Cologne and Bremen family houses were this year more expensive by around ten percent in Frankfurt increased by only 2.2 percent and in Essen by almost three percent. Like other surveys shows that the IVD that of all the most expensive city, Munich, mitmischt with a house price at average residential value of 840 000 euro even with the growth rates of 8.4 percent at the upper end.

Munich shoots even in the land prices for detached houses from the bird. In normal residential areas, the land cost 1350 euros per square meter, which is twice as much as in the next most expensive city, Stuttgart. On top of that the price of land in any city increased as much as in the Bavarian capital, namely by almost 17 percent.

All this of course has an impact on the rent. "It's the same procedure every quarter," said Reiner Braun, director of Empirica. For years, rents increased. In new buildings as they had climbed by almost 24 percent since 2004 on average. "There is no end in sight."

dampen the recent rise can obviously also not introduced one year ago Rent brake. It prescribes that the rent in municipalities with tight housing markets for new leases is to exceed "usual local reference rent" by no more than ten percent. But tenants in boom towns use only very occasionally its right of action, as recently, a survey of the German press agency at district courts in big cities. now affected by rising rents are all segments, says Brown. "There is a lack of housing any price range." The solution is simple: you must simply build more.

(i) A gradual recovery in the domestic construction sector (we forecast +2.7% over the next three years), which should underpin a modest recovery in Contracting EBIT margins (+60bp over four years, SGe). 

(ii) The controlling stake in an attractive domestic toll road (APRR), which should see sustained EBITDA growth, with related FCF and dividend generation (+5.1% and 3.5% CAGR 16-25e respectively), and refinancing optionality

(>€5.5bn of debt to mature in 2017-2021). 

(iii) Sustained recourse holding CF generation: We expect average holdco cash flow (pre-dividends) of €0.5bn over the next five years, resulting (ex new growth capex) in a holdco net cash position of €2.1bn in 2020e (vs €0.3bn at FY15). 

(iv) Net profit and DPS growth: We project 18.6% net profit CAGR 15-18e from operating growth at contracting & concessions and lower debt costs (refinancing). On dividends, we estimate a 10% CAGR 15-18e, and 12.5% CAGR 15-20e. We forecast DPS of €2 in 2018e (in line with consensus), a yield of 3% at the current share price. 

(v) Value: Our updated SOP model ouputs a 12m target price of €76.7 (55% concessions, 45% contracting), which with the 12m rollforward dividend of €1.5 p/share would imply a TSR (total shareholder return) of 17.7%.

REMY: Org Sales +7.4% vs 4.3%, strong growth in Americas (77.26)............+3%

William Hill: Amaya and William Hill will no longer pursue merger (310.99)..+2%

BELLWAY: PBT of £498m vs consensus of £469m, outlook statement +ve (2300)..+2%

LADBROKES: Digital rev growth +48% vs c.20%, Retail in line (140)...........+2%

POLY: 42% QOQ increase in gold-equivalent production (857.5)..............+1.5%

ASOS: FY constant currency revenue grew 26% vs cons of 24% (5380)...........+1%

ASTRAZENECA: successfully re-filed ZS-9 for hyperkalaemia w FDA (5024.24)...+1%

ENAGAS: 9m results in line,EBITDA €643mn vs BofAML €663mn (25.51).........-.50%

DANONE: 3Q16 Sales miss, Volumes -.7% vs +.4% cons, guide confirmed (62.54).-2%

BURBERRY: Revs in line, wholesale revs -14% cFX, we D/G to neutral (1465)...-2%

RYANNAIR: Cutting guide on FX, reduced FY Net Profit guide by 5% (11.55)..-2.5%

BUREAU VERITAS: Full year guide downgraded to slightly negative (17.85).....-3%

Kuehne&Nagel: Group EBIT c.-12% miss, Net Profit c.-9% miss (133.09)........-3%

CONTINENTAL AG: cut '16 outlook on antitrust cases in carpart unit (170.05).-3%

StreetAccount Summary - European pre-market trading update

StreetAccount notes that the pre-market levels mentioned are taken from various market sources

CS
Asos -3-4% FY inline, margin guidance may disappoint

Autos UNCH Ford To idle four factories due to slowing demand

Bellway +2-3% FY16 operating profit 492mln vs CS at 490mln

Bureau Veritas -3-4% Q3 light and 2016 revised slightly lower

Burberry -2 1H revs, 2Q retail comp sales in line with estimates

Com Hem +2% EBITDA 4% beat, Q3 revenue inline, divi to increase

Connect Grp +1% FY revs inline, adjusted profit 2% ahead

Continental -4-5% Cuts its 2016 profitability forecast

Danone -1% LFL sales growth 2.1% vs Est. 2.4%

Electrolux +1-2% September shipments of white goods climbed 6.9%

Hays +1-2% 1Q net fees increase YoY, Australia better

K&N -2% Q3 net 6% light, net sales 11% light

Ladbrokes +1-2% 3Q supportive of its full year expectations

Miners +0.5-1% Copper +0.40%, Brent +0.90%, Iron Ore +0.35%, China +0.50%

Oils +0.5% Brent +90bps to $51.8, WTI +1.15% to $50.25

Pernod +1% Positive read from Remy numbers

Remy +2-3% Q2 sales 3% ahead, organic growth 7.4% vs cons 4.3%

Royal Dutch -0.5% Boardroom clash complicates exit from partnership in Japan

Ryanair -3-5% Cuts FY17 net profit guidance 5%

Volkswagen UNCH US state of Missouri sued VW over diesel emissions

Will Hill +2-3% Amaya and William Hill will no longer pursue merger

Investec
* B VERITAS-weak Q3, cuts FY sales & margin ests.'unfavourable conditions'...-3%

* COM HEM-Q3 rev in line, ebitda 3% beat, lowers capex, big div increase.....+3%

* CONTI-cuts FY16 ebit guidance by 10% on warranty, antitrust charges........-3%

* DANONE-Q3 lfl +2.1%(est +2.4%), overall sales in line, confirms FY f/cast..-1%

* K&N-Q3 net misses by 9%, ebit also weak. Not seen any guidance change......-3%

* REMY-Q2 org sales +7.4% (est +4.3%), 'remarkable growth' in US.............+3%

* SGS-seen lower on read from BVI FP warning...............................-1.5%

* SONOVA-investor & analyst day today, will present new products.............+1%

Other

* AIRLINES-watch for read from RYANAIR cutting guidance.

* HALDEX-CEO resigns(joins Indutrade). Watch for impact on potential t/over.

* EU Co's reporting later/after close: GETINGE, ACCOR

* US Co's reporting (selected) : Omnicom,BlackRock,J&J,P Morris,GS,Intel,Yahoo!

* ASOS-FY.Rev i/l,Profit small beat. Margins stable.+ve o/look.d/g's likely.....-2%

* AVON RUBBER-Update. Trading in line, FY on track. Appoints new FD(ex CHG LN).unch

* BELLWAY-FY.Rev inline, PTP & Div ahead.LT outlook remains +ve.............+2-3%

* BURBERRY-Q2.#'s in line, cost savings on track. No chg to FY PTP views....unch

* CLINIGEN-Launches Japanese Business to strengthen Asian presence..........+1/2%

* CONNECT GRP-FY. #'s in line. Positive outlook stmtn........................+1/2%

* DIAGEO-Hosting Asia Pac conf.call at 13:00 today........................ .unch

* DIGITAL BARRIERS-Agrees new 2 yr. £10m revolving credit facility..........unch

* HAYS-Q1.Solid trading, UK weak (well flagged)+ve o/look(Americas&Aus)....+1-2%

* LADBROKES-Q3.Trading in line, FY on track. Coral deal close to completion...+2%

* MARSHALL MOTORS-Trading remains in line(stmnt after yday’s weakness,-7%)....+3%

* UTILITYWISE-FY. #'s & div a small beat. Names new CFO.....................+1-2%

* WILLIAM HILL-No longer pursuing all share merger with Amaya...............+1%

MainFirst
*CONTI-Sees Auto Grp Ebit Lower Y/Y,expects Q4 back above <9%........-3%

*K&N-Q3 Ebit 223m(252),Ebitda 270m(298),Conf call 2pm CET............-3%

*BASF-2 employees dead & 2 missing, prosecutors will investigate......U/C

*CBK-To cut 8,450 jobs in Germany out of a planned 9,600-B/Z.........+0.25%

*DANONE-Q3 l-f-l +2.1%(2.4),Sales 5.54b(5.55),Diary ++2.2%(2.5%).....-2%

*B/VERITAS-Q3 Sales 1.136b(1.14),Cuts 2016 Targets, Sale low end......-4%

*REMY-Q2 Sales 294.8m(284.2),L&S +10%(5%),Organic Sales 9.3%(6)......+3%

*LHA-not only interested in parts of Air Berlin but also Condor......+0.5%

*BURBERRY-Rev £1.16b(1.17),Retail £859m(858),Retail 2%(2)............-2%

*WILLIAM HILL-Will not pursue merger talks with Amaya................+2%

*RYANAIR-Cuts FY17 by 5%,Fares -10%(-9%),Load Factor 1% better.......-3%

MS

Pre-Open Indications:

ASC LN -1-2%

ASOS FY REV GBP 1.44B VS BLOOMBERG CONS GBP 1.44B,SEES MARGINS BROADLY STABLE

BN FP -1-2%

Q3 LFL 2.1% vs 2.2% CONS. MAINTAIN GUIDANCE BUT KEY IS THAT LOW END OF 3-5% OR IN LINE WITH CONS AT 3.4%. CALL AT 8AM MAY TELL US MORE RE Q4.

BRBY LN -2-3%

LFL +2% INLINE, BUT MISSES WHISPER NUMBERS & HIGH EXPECTATIONS GIVEN RUN & LVMH. FX BENEFIT LARGELY EXPECTED & PRICED IN.

BVI FP -3-5%

BUREAU VERITAS CUTS 2016 TARGETS,CITES UNFAVORABLE MARKETS,3Q SALES EU1.136B,DOWN LFL 1.0%HAD SEEN SALES UP AT LOW END OF +1%-3% RANGE

BWY LN +3%

BELLWAY FY PRETAX GBP497.9M VS BLOOMBERG ESTIMATES GBP 469.1M,OUTLOOK POSITIVE,SUPPORTED BY STRONG DEMAND

COMH SS +3/4%

COM HEM 3Q REV SK1.31 VS BLOOMBERG EST SK 1.31 BLN,3Q UNDERLYING EBITDA SK642 MLN VS BLOOMBERG EST 622 MLN,SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE DIVIDEND IN 2017 TO SK 4.0/SHR

CON GY -3%

CUTS GUIDANCE BY 12%, MOSTLY DUE TO ONE OFF ON WARRANTIES/ANTITRUST ISSUES DATING PRE-2010, THOUGH STILL UNCERTAINTY.. STOCK HAS DERATED INTO THIS

ELUXB SS +1-2%

SEPT AHAM6 DATA STRONG, +6.9%, YTD +3.6%. WILL BE TAKEN WELL DESPITE POTENTIAL Q MARK OVER PRICING

ENG SM +0.5%

WEAK NOS AT OPERATING LEVEL MAINLY DUE TO HIGHER OPEX, NET IN LINE, CONF CALL AT 09:00CET

EZJ LN -2-3%

NEGATIVE READACROSS FROM RYA WARNING, BUT PARTLY PRICED IN

HAS LN UNCH/+1%

HAYS REPORTS TOTAL GROWTH OF 3%

IAG LN -4-5%

NEGATIVE READACROSS FROM RYA WARNING AND ONLY AIRLINE NOT TO COMMENT YET ON CCY (REPORT OCT. 28)

POLY LN REST

REIT'S FY COST & VOLUME GUIDANCE, GOLD +40bps THIS MORN

RCO FP +3-5%

REMY COINTREAU 2Q SALES RISE ORGANIC 9.3% VS BLOOMBERG EST 6.0%,2Q SALES EU 294.8M VS BLOOMBERG CON EU284.2M

RYA ID -3-5%

LOWERING FY17 GUIDANCE BY 5%, CONSENSUS PARTLY MOVED ALREADY, VISIBILITY REMAINS POOR

Shore Cap
MOTOR INSURERS - ABI sees insurance premiums +10% in the past year.........UNCH

BELLWAY - record yr,revs +26.9% £2.24bn,profits +34.3%,oper.margin +160bps..+2%

BURBERRY - revs -4% £1.16bn,wholesale revs -14%,FY PBT expec remain unch....-1%

ASOS - revs +26% £1.44bn,profit +26% £722m,reads in line at best............-2%

DOTDIGITAL - turnover +26%,EBITDA +17%,sees rev growth in Q1 over 20%.....+tive

WILLIAM HILL - Op pft to be top end of range. Calls off Amaya merger.........+2%

RYANAIR - Cuts fy guidance 5%.Cites fall of sterling post Brexit referendum.-5%

HAYS - Q1 net fees +3%.Says new financial year has started well.............+2%

MARSHALL MOTOR - Reiterates outlook for FY..................................+1%

LADBROKES - Says Q3 supportive of its full year expectations................+1%

CONNECT - revs +1.7%,PBT +7.4%,strong cash generation, confident outlook.....+2%

ACCESSO TECH - signs three year LoQueue solution contract at Sydney park..+0.5%

RBC
ASOS -2% Pretax profit small miss, margins stable, travel & arrive

BELLWAY +3% FY pretax beat, operating profit ahead, raising dividend

BURBERRY -3% Q2 sales inline, Retail flat, travel & arrive

B.VERITAS -3% Q3 organic growth -1% v -0.6% expected, cutting FY targets

DANONE -2% Q3 LFL +2.1% v +2.4% expected, vol growth weak, medical better.

COINTREAU +3% Q2 beat, LFL +7.4% v +4.3% expected, spirits strong

CONTINENTAL -5% Warning on anti-trust/warranty issues, ADR (-3%), FY16 downgrade

ENAGAS -1% Q3'16 small miss with EBIT/EBITDA below, net income ahead

HAYS +2% Q1 net fee growth ahead +3% v +2% expected, Europe growth ahead

K & NAGEL -2% Q3 EBIT miss, Hanjin disruption, Air ahead, expect downgrades

HUGO BOSS -1% Weak read from BURBERRY after wholesale miss

POLYMETAL +1% Q3 production +4% on Svetloye ramp, guidance reiterated

RYANAIR -3% 2017 guidance cut but not as much as EASYJET, sterling headwinds

SKY -1% NETFLIX (+20%) strong after hours, overseas subscriber adds +'ve

WILLIAM H. +1% AMAYA and WILLIAM HILL merger end, buyback restart & +'ve earn.

Julius Baer
SMI +0.2%

ATLN +0.6%

KNIN -2.8%

KUDN +0.7%

SZU -2.7%

HELLA +1.7%

BN -2%

CRH +1.6%

EZY +1.8%

MHG +1.4%

RYA -3.5%

RKH +8.8%

RB/ +1.1%

On Consensus numbers the Sector is trading on peak multiples but the Street fails to model FX

properly. After adjusting for the Pound’s slide we now sit ahead of Consensus on most names; so

shouldn’t we be buyers of names where we’re most ahead of the Street? Not necessarily. We show

how the market has already priced most of the tailwind; we therefore try to look through these FX

driven differences and base recommendations on expected underlying trading performance.

Buy Humiliation, Sell Hubris: price relative of real assets (real estate, commodities, collectibles) to financial assets (stocks & bonds) at its lowest level since 1926; US stocks close to all-time highs versus US house prices; US bonds at all-time highs versus diamonds (Chart 1); 10-year rolling return from commodities lowest since 1933.

Peak Deflation: real assets positively correlated with inflation; stocks & bonds negatively correlated with inflation; central banks are withdrawing stimulus as deflation fears subside; real assets hedge against inflation & monetary tightening; real asset relative performance has 82% correlation to Fed funds rate since 1950.

War on Inequality: commodities, real estate & infrastructure are natural beneficiaries of a “War on Inequality” waged via fiscal stimulus.

Cheap Value: real estate (REITs 3.3%, timber 2.6%, agriculture 2.6%) & infrastructure (3.2%) are higher yielding assets than global stocks & bonds.

Positioning: Asset allocation to real assets is low but on the rise (just 8.2% of total ETF market cap is exposed to real assets; pension fund up from 9% to 24% past 15 years).

Beneficiaries: 9 ideas to gain exposure to the Real Asset theme…energy stocks, infrastructure, TIPS, timber, etc. See pages 8-9.

While the sales growth and margin accretion story are well-understood, we believe the

market underestimates the FCF generation potential going forward. We are 10% above

FCF 2016-2018e, and 15% above thereafter. We upgrade Thales to BUY (PT €92/share)

as we see: 1) attractive 11% EBIT CAGR profit growth 2016e-2018e; 2) defensive

profile with 65% of profits exposed to defence in the first year of a turning cycle; 3)

doubling of underlying FCF from 2015-2020e; 4) balance sheet optionality could

further unlock value. Thales trades attractively on 11.5x '17e EV/EBIT vs. average

European Industrial stocks trading on 14.5x, with higher growth and safer end markets.

On the back of our detailed analysis of cash flow and prepayments we forecast

underlying FCF to double from €0.7bn to €1.4bn by 2020e. After a 55% cash

conversion (FCF/EBIT) over the last 5 years, we estimate an average cash conversion of

67% over 2016-2021e vs. consensus 56% and management guidance >60%. We

expect the improvement to come from: 1) lower capex investments (start 2018e) post a

period of elevated investments, 2) no more cash outflows related to past provision, 3)

resilience in terms of prepayments vs. market expectations – we model €400m decline

in prepayments over next 3 years, while consensus implies higher declines.

Recent non-core asset disposals + further FCF improvement are incremental to an

already unlevered BS (-1.5x net cash/EBITDA ex pens). While share buybacks are difficult

to implement due to Thales' shareholder structure, we expect: 1) DPS pay-out ratio to

increase from 35% to 45% - dividend yield increasing from 1.9% to 3.3% (UBSe '19e

DPS 15% above cons); 2) any further bolt-on acquisitions could be earnings/value

accretive. A potential increase in DCNS stake could be perceived negatively by the

market, but we do not expect a decision before the French elections (May 2017e).

We upgrade our PT to €92/share (prior €75) to reflect: 1) higher mid-term profit growth

on the back of Indian Rafale order and FX transactional benefits starting 2018, 2)

higher cash conversion, 3) rolling forward our valuation. Our PT is based on a DCF

using cash conversion 89%, 5 year profit growth of 7.4% and a WACC of 9%,

implying a FV multiple of 14.3x EV/EBITA.