>>> Street Pre-Market

ML
BANCO POPOLARE: deal bw BP & BPM approved by respective EGMs (2.63).........+3%
BPM: deal bw BP and BPM approved by respective EGMs (.433)..................+3%
LADBROKES: conditional sale of 359 betting offices for £55m (140.5).........+1%
PEARSON: org growth -7%, US not improving (H1 -9%) (815.85).................-2%


CS
Aker Sol +1-2% Has won a small (c.$40m) MMO contract from Statoil
CGG +1% Sercel has sold 10,000 channels of its cable free system
EDP +1-2% Portuguese budget increases tariffs
H&M M/P September sales rise 1% vs forecasts of 1%
Marine Harv -1-2% Q3 inline, guidance for 4Q reduced
Miners -0.5% Copper +0.35%, Brent +0.80%, Iron Ore -0.25%, China +0.01%
Pearson -1-2% Reiterates 2016 guidance and 2018 goals
Rheinmetall +1-2% Merkel said that Germany will boost defence spending
Rob Walters +1% Q3 Gross Profit 3% ahead, UK Reseouce Solutions better
Roche +0.5% FDA approves Lucentis prefilled syringe
SSE +0.5% To sell 16.7% equity stake in Scotia Gas Networks for £621M
Total -2% Refining Margins at $25.5/t down from $35/t in prior qtr
Will Hill -1-2% Plans to continue merger talks despite opposition

FT : French plot revolt over new European rules for failing banks

French plot revolt over new European rules for failing banks
Paris fears its banks will be disproportionately hit by new European rules for failing banks

France is preparing to mount a campaign against the way Europe introduces rules making it easier to wind down failing banks, driven by fears in Paris that its lenders will be disproportionately targeted.

The European Commission is planning to publish proposals in the coming weeks. They seek to stop major banks being too-big-to-fail by forcing them to issue more debt that can be easily wiped out if they get into distress. It is estimated that banks will have to issue billions in new securities to meet the standard.

According to people briefed on the matter, France is preparing to fight the plans over what is says is their overly narrow scope. As drafted the rules would cover a total of 13 EU lenders, including France’s BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Crédit Agricole and Groupe BPCE, more than any other nation other than the UK.

Other banks set to be captured include Deutsche Bank in Germany, UniCredit in Italy and Banco Santander in Spain.

The logic behind the rules is that wiping out or converting the debt would give a boost to the bank’s crumbling financial position, protecting deposits and taxpayers and giving regulators time to act. At the same time, banks warn that they will incur serious costs, as investors will want an attractive return on the bonds to compensate them for the extra risks they are running.

The planned measures mirror an international deal struck in 2015 by banking regulators from the world’s major economies. That agreement foresees that the rule, known as total loss absorbing capacity, or TLAC, would cover banks identified as being systemically important to the global economy. The standard is set to fully apply from January 2022.

According to the latest data from the Financial Stability Board, the global regulatory group that drew up the rule, as many as 30 banks will have to comply with the standard internationally.

Despite the scope of the rules being decided at international level, EU officials have been debating for months whether to apply the standard to a wider set of institutions in Europe, on the basis that smaller lenders can also potentially pose a systemic risk.

The decision to stick with the global approach has infuriated France, according to diplomats, which argues that it should not become a prime target for EU regulation simply because it has a highly-consolidated banking sector.

Elke König, the chairwoman of the Single Resolution Board, the euro area agency tasked with handling failed banks in the future, has also suggested that a wider range of banks should be covered by the rule. She said there was a case to be made for applying TLAC “to a larger pool — it could be all significant banks.”

The clash has echoes of a French pushback over the past two years against EU plans for breaking up big banks, with Paris concerned then that it would become the prime target. Work on those proposals has ground to a halt because of splits within the European Parliament — including over how many banks should be covered.

It is also the latest furore among governments over how to strengthen the financial system, at a time when Europe is in the middle of a spat with the US over a different set of international discussions on banking reform.

According to diplomats, the scope of the proposal is set to be one of the major topics for discussion on the plans, which will need approval by the European Parliament and the Council — the EU institution which represents national governments — if they are to become law. Paris is one of several capitals to have identified it as an issue requiring further review.

Europe’s roll out of the TLAC rule has been complicated by the fact that, when the international standard was agreed, the EU was already rolling out its own set of rules, also aimed at ensuring that banks issue enough loss absorbing debt.

Whereas the EU standard, known as MREL, leaves it to national and euro area regulators to decide the amount of loss-absorbing securities each bank needs, TLAC is a fixed rule: by January 2022, banks should have outstanding subordinated debt, and other eligible securities, equivalent to 6.75 per cent of their total assets, and 18 per cent of their assets weighted for risk. The rule starts phasing in from 2019.

According to EU officials, the existence of the MREL rule reduces the case for extending TLAC to a wider group of banks, at a time when regulators need to act swiftly if Europe is to meet the international deadline for applying the standard.

FT - SSE sells SGN stake for £621m to Abu Dhabi wealth fund

FT - SSE sells SGN stake for £621m to Abu Dhabi wealth fund

SSE, the UK energy company, will dispose of a 16.7 per cent stake in SGN, the gas distribution company to the Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund for £621m.

In a statement on Monday, SSE said it was looking to complete the deal by the end of the month with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority which will be settled in cash. SSE will provide an update on what it will do with the proceeds early next month.

The company has been looking for ways to dispose of its 50 per cent stake in SGN, acquired in 2005. It will retain a 33 per cent stake following the deal with the Gulf state’s sovereign wealth fund.

Alistair Phillips-Davies, chief executive said:

The sale of a 16.7% stake confirms SSE’s ability to deliver value for shareholders through focused, timely disposals while at the same time retaining a diverse range of regulated and unregulated businesses in order to support long term dividend growth.

(CS) Global Phrama : 2017 Strategic conclusions


PharmaValues 2017 Strategic Conclusions 
■ Credit Suisse PharmaValues is a proprietary valuation tool for the Pharma and Biotech industry. It offers a product-by-product valuation for companies based on the Net Present Value (NPV) over the life-cycle of each drug in their portfolios. The long term track record of picking Major Pharma and Japanese stocks based on EV/NPV is strong with a seven-year market neutral return of 95%, and a 2016 YTD performance of +36%. 
■ 2017 Strategic Conclusions: In this Ideas Engine report, we compare 48 global therapeutics companies with 2016E aggregate pharmaceutical sales of $584bn, total sales of $745bn, and over $120bn of annual R&D. We set out detailed conclusions on valuation and six strategic metrics that we believe are key to long-term success in the Biopharmaceutical industry. 
■ Major Pharma: Lilly scores highest overall with AbbVie the highest scoring company on fundamentals ex-valuation. Sanofi is the highest scoring EU Major with Novartis scoring well strategically. Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk score poorly. Pfizer is weak across the board, AZN has a very high EV/NPV valuation and Novo is highly exposed to US price pressure. 
■ Specialty Pharma: Ipsen scores the highest even excluding valuation, with strong top line growth, a move to specialist products and no patent headwinds. Recordati scores the worst as this methodology cannot capture acquisitiondriven growth. Ignoring valuation, Orion remains the weakest strategically as partnered R&D will not be derisked until 2018+. 
■ Japan: KH Kirin scores the highest, trading at EV/NPV of 0.9 and Eisai scores the lowest. Just looking at strategic factors, Ono looks well set with long-term royalty income from BMY, with M Tanabe scoring poorly on all metrics despite rising royalty income from partner JNJ on Invokana. 
■ Biotech: Vertex scores the highest with a successful focus on cystic fibrosis. Amgen scores the lowest both strategically and including valuation.

(Exane) Beverages


The Booze Cruise, Q316
It’s time for the next edition of The Booze Cruise, a chart-heavy publication designed to enable
investors to get a better feel for near-term trends in the Beverages industry. How have things fared
in Q316?
Beer – a mixed bag
Warm weather should provide a boost to beer numbers in Q316, particularly in Europe, Russia and
China. The picture is less positive in the Americas (US volumes remain lacklustre, Mexican beer
production has slowed). We expect growth in Asia to remain strong (Vietnam) although expect
trends to remain soft in much of Africa (Nigeria, DRC). Overall, we expect beer volume growth of
+0.6% in the quarter and organic sales growth of +3.2%.
Spirits – solid trends
The US spirits industry remains in good health, although the distillers’ fortunes here are diverse.
Trends in Western Europe also appear robust and India should continue to be a good growth driver
(for now). Cognac shipments to Asia have improved this quarter. Trends in other emerging markets
may be more challenging (notably Brazil).
Company view
We expect ‘ok’ results at Carlsberg and ABInBev in the quarter, and expect good volume growth
at Heineken (weather boost). We expect solid growth at both Diageo and Pernod. We increase
our EPS estimates at Diageo by 10% following the recent GBP devaluation. We look for continued
good underlying momentum at Remy (although optically weakened by the exit from Champagne
distribution).

(Exane) Beverages


The Booze Cruise, Q316
It’s time for the next edition of The Booze Cruise, a chart-heavy publication designed to enable
investors to get a better feel for near-term trends in the Beverages industry. How have things fared
in Q316?
Beer – a mixed bag
Warm weather should provide a boost to beer numbers in Q316, particularly in Europe, Russia and
China. The picture is less positive in the Americas (US volumes remain lacklustre, Mexican beer
production has slowed). We expect growth in Asia to remain strong (Vietnam) although expect
trends to remain soft in much of Africa (Nigeria, DRC). Overall, we expect beer volume growth of
+0.6% in the quarter and organic sales growth of +3.2%.
Spirits – solid trends
The US spirits industry remains in good health, although the distillers’ fortunes here are diverse.
Trends in Western Europe also appear robust and India should continue to be a good growth driver
(for now). Cognac shipments to Asia have improved this quarter. Trends in other emerging markets
may be more challenging (notably Brazil).
Company view
We expect ‘ok’ results at Carlsberg and ABInBev in the quarter, and expect good volume growth
at Heineken (weather boost). We expect solid growth at both Diageo and Pernod. We increase
our EPS estimates at Diageo by 10% following the recent GBP devaluation. We look for continued
good underlying momentum at Remy (although optically weakened by the exit from Champagne
distribution).

>>> Constellation Brands poised to agree CAD 1bn sale of Canadian wine unit to O

Constellation Brands poised to agree CAD 1bn sale of Canadian wine unit to Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan - report

Constellation Brands [NYSE:STZ] could announce the sale of its Canadian wine operation later today, 17 October, The Wall Street Journal reported. According to individuals familiar with the transaction, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) is poised to agree the acquisition of the wine business for approximately CAD 1bn (USD 760m), the report said.
New York-based Constellation revealed earlier this year its IPO plans for the Canadian wine unit but started a sale process after being approached by OTPP and several wine producers in Canada, the sources said.
The wine business includes the Sumac Ridge and Jackson-Triggs brands, the report said.

>>> What to look at today - 17th of October 2016

Late on Friday, US Treasury released its semi-annual currency report without naming any country a manipulator and a toned down view of China. Last time in April, China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Germany, and Switzerland were singled out for "Monitoring List". China has since met the criteria related to trade surplus and a threshold of 3% on current account, while Japan, Korea, and Germany were also seen with sufficiently large current account and trade surplus. US Treasury still sees global growth remaining soft relative to recent historical averages, with expected modest increase in 2017. Weekend China press focused more on govt addressing the risks of rising debt levels among corporates and financials.At the BRICS summit in India, China Pres Xi expressed concern that global economy is going through a "treacherous recovery" due to both internal and external factors, adding that "BRICS countries have somewhat slowed down in economic growth and have faced a number of new challenges in development." BOJ Gov Kuroda warned that core CPI will remain at 0% or below for a while, even as financial system is maintaining stability and economy continues to recover moderately as a trend (standard BOJ assessment); Earlier, Nikkei speculated the BOJ may reduce its CPI forecast for FY17/18 to low 1.0-1.5% area from 1.7% prior when it unveils its update on growth and inflation in 2 weeks.

Nikkei +0.30% Hang Seng -0.57% CSI -0.11% Shanghai +0.01%

Eur$ 1.0984 CNH 6.7441 CNY 6.7330 JPY 104.22 GBP 1.2158 CHF 0.9895 RUB 62.9948 WTI$ 50.23 (-0.24%)

S&P -0.29% EuroStoxx -0.40% FTSE -0.17% Dax -0.27% SMI -0.33%

Macro :
- BOE’s Shafik Says GBP Fall May Push Up Inflation: Mercury
- Fed’s Dudley Sees Rate Increase This Year: Wall Street Journal
- Germany Exploring Mechanism to Limit Foreign Takeovers: WamS
- Hedge Funds Buy BrightHouse Debt in Restructuring Bet: Telegraph
- Boris Johnson Wrote Brexit Could Cause Economic Shock: Times
- 2 former traders at Izzy Englander's Millennium have reunited to launch a new hedge fund
- Fed’s Rosengren Says U.S. Economy Headed for Hot Labor Market

Keep an eye on :
- ADN LN : Crispin Odey Ends 3-Yr Short of Aberdeen Asset Mgmt: Telegraph
- AIR FP : Airbus in ‘Constructive Talks’ With Leonardo on MBDA: Il Sole
- AIR FP : Poland Mulls Making Helicopter w/ Ukraine: Macierewicz to WSieci
- AAPL US : U.S. Said to Ban All Samsung 7 Phones on Airline Flights
- AAPL US : Alitalia Bans Samsung Galaxy Note 7 From All Its Flights
- BAS GY : BASF Petronas Invests 2b Rgt in New Malaysia Plants: Bernama
- BIM FP : Biomerieux to Contest Lawsuit Over Lyme Disease Tests
- BP/ LN : BP to Decide on U.S. Wind Power Expansion This Yr: FT
- BPM IM : Approved meger-One newly issued Banco BPM share for each Banco Popolare share, One newly issued Banco BPM share for 6.386 BPM shares
- CABK SM : Caixabank Reviews Strategic Plan 2015-18: El Confidencial
- CBK GY : Commerzbank Mulls Listing ETF, Derivatives Unit: Euro Am Sonntag
- CON GY : Acquires auto supplier Konrad Hornschuch, has annual sales of approx €410M, has 1,800 employees and operates four manufacturing sites in German and the US.- no details
- COTY US : Coty Said to Be Near GBP400m-Plus Purchase of U.K.’s GHD: Sky
- DL NA : Delta Lloyd's largest shareholder Fubon (10%) might put in a bid - NRC.NL
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Is Asked to Change Business Model in U.S.: Welt
- ENG SM : Enagas Agrees to Boost Stake in Transportadora de Gas Del Peru
- GALP PL : Galp Chairman Americo Amorim Resigns; Replaced by Paula Amorim
- JMAT LN : +ve article in FT on battery division
- LDO IM : Airbus in ‘Constructive Talks’ With Leonardo on MBDA: Il Sole
- MC FP : Audemars Piguet Chairwoman Has Never Considered Sale: SZ
- NG/ LN : National Grid Said to Select Macquarie, Fosun as Canadians Drop
- UG FP : PSA Said to Cut 2,133 Jobs at French Sites, Franceinfo Says
- PMI IM : Popolare Milano Approves Merger With Banco
- RMG LN : Most Royal Mail Workers Reject Chance to Sell Shares: Sky
- SYNN VX : Sinochem Chairman Has Been Driving ChemChina Merger Talks: FT
- TWTR US : Salesforce CEO Benioff Says Twitter ’Not Right Fit’: FT
- UCG IM : UniCredit Said Near Partial Stake Sale of Bank Pekao: WSJ
- VIV FP : Vincent Bolloré Boosts Stake in Vivendi to More Than 20%
- VOW3 GY : VW Seeks 10% Cut in 2017 Indirect Overhead Costs: Automobilwoche
- VOW3 GY : Post-VW Scandal Move to Allow German Class-Actions Falters: SZ
- WHL LN : William Hill to Continue Merger Talks With Amaya: Telegraph
- ZURN VX : Zurich Could Be a Buy If Operations Are Simplified: Berenberg

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 17th of October 2016

>>> Up
*ENQUEST RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*KESKO RAISED TO HOLD AT NORDEA
*LUNDIN MINING RAISED TO HOLD AT NORDEA
*MEDICLINIC RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*PUBLICIS RAISED TO BUY AT PIVOTAL RESEARCH
*TELECOM ITALIA RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*UNITED UTILITIES RAISED TO BUY AT HSBC

>>> Down
*APERAM CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*DEBENHAMS CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*DUSTIN GROUP CUT TO HOLD AT NORDEA
*EVONIK INDUSTRIES CUT TO NEUTRAL AT MAIN FIRST BANK
*SOFTWARE AG CUT TO REDUCE AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
*VAT GROUP CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*AMEC FOSTER WHEELER RATED NEW MARKET PERFORM AT RAYMOND JAMES
*DIA RATED NEW BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK, PT EU6.20
*EUROPCAR RATED NEW BUY AT CITI, PT EU10.50
*PETROFAC RATED NEW STRONG BUY AT RAYMOND JAMES, PT 1200P
*WOOD GROUP RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT RAYMOND JAMES, PT 900P

>>> Call
>> Stock
*ENTERGY REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CONVICTION LIST, STAYS BUY