The real estate madness continues
The real estate boom assumes more and more characteristics of a bubble. In Cologne, the prices for detached houses over ten percent rise, land prices in Munich by almost 17 percent. A form of housing grew more strongly for years.
Dusseldorf Rent brake, building permits on a 16-year high, more and more finished apartments - but the upward trend on the German real estate market seems all that hard to dampen. Rents and prices are rising in many places higher and higher, as if there were inherently only one direction.
The broker association IVD has evaluated the property prices in 370 German cities. One result: In none of the cities in the five size classes from 30 000 to more than 500 000 inhabitants, prices for apartments middle Wohnwert average climbed less than five percent. In cities with more than half a million inhabitants, the price increases were most severe. For existing homes had 2016 there nearly 9.5 percent more are paid for new construction 7.6 percent. What sounds dramatic, but is just a continuation of the trends from previous years. For existing homes, prices climbed from 2014 in 2015 to 7.5 percent and for new construction apartments by almost 7.7 percent.
For years, the prices for condominiums rising faster than for single-family homes. This has not changed this year. The understandable reason: apartments are in demand from both owner occupiers as from investors. Many people swing on the search for the right retirement from government bonds to concrete and stones around. You want to rent instead of interest cash and experiencing how the apartment values rise quickly.
"The prices have increased more than in the past five years," says Jürgen M. Schick, president of the IVD. "The bigger the city, the higher the prices."
Figures from market research institute Empirica confirm this trend. The Institute has established indices for price developments of condominiums, single-family homes and rentals. The index for apartments increased in the third quarter of 2016 over the previous quarter by 2.2 percent, which. Family-by 1.8 percent and 0.9 percent, the rent But this also means that can not be buyers of condominiums from falling rental yields slow. Whether owner-occupier or owner - all have to live with the phenomenon that the residential property prices are rising faster than rents and income.
Meanwhile, experts warn against overheating. "The housing boom will increasingly features a bubble," says Ralph Solveen from Commerzbank. What is problematic, that charges are unhooked from other important factors. "Since 2010 prices are rising faster than rents, consumer prices and household income." And at the cheap money the ECB would be unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, says Solveen. But the interest rates on mortgage loans barely could fall, take on the risk of a correction in prices to rise further.
but not nationwide - Helaba expert Mitropoulos sees especially in big cities exaggerations. As a typical member of a bubble also lacks a fast growing real estate lending. The increase in prices can be explained in large part by the development of supply and demand. And it would be so fast to change anything as to the low interest rates. Thus, the market will gradually although correction vulnerable, but short-term relaxation is not likely in sight. "The difficult situation in the German housing market will continue for some time."
Although the prices for condominiums rise even faster than for detached houses, so the price increase for houses has accelerated this year. At most, the difference in inflation rates for the previous year in cities the size class is 250000-500000 inhabitants. There had in 2016 compared to 2015 around 6.4 percent are paid. A year earlier, the rate of increase was around four percent. "Due to the moderate price increases in previous years, now a catch-up effect is also here."
Each statistic is working with average values, but has its pitfalls. Statisticians describe like that. A man who sticks his head in the oven and at the same time puts the feet in the freezer, although perhaps a healthy average temperature, but no chance of survival for a longer time. How far diverge inflation rates even in large cities, show the individual values collected by the IVD.
In Cologne and Bremen family houses were this year more expensive by around ten percent in Frankfurt increased by only 2.2 percent and in Essen by almost three percent. Like other surveys shows that the IVD that of all the most expensive city, Munich, mitmischt with a house price at average residential value of 840 000 euro even with the growth rates of 8.4 percent at the upper end.
Munich shoots even in the land prices for detached houses from the bird. In normal residential areas, the land cost 1350 euros per square meter, which is twice as much as in the next most expensive city, Stuttgart. On top of that the price of land in any city increased as much as in the Bavarian capital, namely by almost 17 percent.
All this of course has an impact on the rent. "It's the same procedure every quarter," said Reiner Braun, director of Empirica. For years, rents increased. In new buildings as they had climbed by almost 24 percent since 2004 on average. "There is no end in sight."
dampen the recent rise can obviously also not introduced one year ago Rent brake. It prescribes that the rent in municipalities with tight housing markets for new leases is to exceed "usual local reference rent" by no more than ten percent. But tenants in boom towns use only very occasionally its right of action, as recently, a survey of the German press agency at district courts in big cities. now affected by rising rents are all segments, says Brown. "There is a lack of housing any price range." The solution is simple: you must simply build more.