>>> Time +5% in early, thin trading following NYPost report that the company has

Time +5% in early, thin trading following NYPost report that the company has rejected an $18.00/share takeover bid from Edgar Bronfman Jr.

NY POST : Time Inc. rejects buyout bid from billionaire Edgar Bronfman Jr.


Edgar Bronfman Jr. is making a bid to buy Time Inc., publisher of People, Time and Sports Illustrated, The Post has learned.

Bronfman, who is teaming up with Len Blavatnik’s Access Industries, recently submitted a bid to the board of the legendary magazine publisher to buy the company for $18 a share.

The price is an 18 percent premium over Time Inc.’s Friday closing price of $13.80 — and 34 cents over the company’s 52-week high of $17.66.

The Time Inc. board is said to have rejected the offer.

Also a part of the bidding group is Israeli businessman Ynon Kreiz, according to reliable industry sources.

The trio of executives have a long and friendly relationship. Kreiz is on the board of Warner Music Group, which is controlled by Access Industries.

In a friendly takeover, Access purchased WMG from Bronfman for $3.3 billion in May 2011.

Time Inc., founded 94 years ago on Monday, includes some of the most prestigious print brands in the business, including Time, People, In Style and Sports Illustrated.

The New York publisher has been working rapidly in recent years to re-position itself as a more broad-based digital media company — becoming less dependent on print advertising revenue.

But the trek has not been easy. Saddled with $1.5 billion in debt after the spinoff from Time Warner in June 2014, Time Inc. has been limited to relatively small add-on acquisitions in the digital sphere.

With print revenues still declining the company was originally hoping that 2016 would be the year that it finally started posting revenue gains — but in reporting third quarter results it told Wall Street that 2016 revenue would be, at best, flat or down slightly.

It has also been rapidly realigning its executive structure.

Joe Ripp, CEO since before the split, stepped down in September and was replaced by Rich Batista, an executive vice president with a long history in cable — and a short tenure at Time Inc.

Batista had been hired to run People and Entertainment Weekly with a mandate to quickly grow the titles’ digital revenue. He later added SI.

While the company pursued a massive makeover, Time Inc. attracted activist investors, including Jana Partners and, more recently, Leon Coppelman’s Omega Partners.

At the same time, rumors surfaced that Time Inc. was weighing some kind of alliance with Meredith Corp. No formal talks have taken place between the two companies since 2014, however, sources said.

If a bid is ultimately successful it would likely mark a major change in direction for a company that still derives the bulk of its revenue from print.

Kreiz is the chairman and chief executive of Maker Studios, which produces short form video for You Tube. It was sold to Disney for $500 million. Maker controls short form stars such as PewDiePie.

Time Inc. could not immediately be reached for comment.

Bronfman, a managing partner of Accretive LLC, a private equity firm, was said to be out of the country an unavailable for comment. Neither Blavatnik nor Kreiz could be reached for comment.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: HTBX +18.1%, TIME +5.1%, AG +3.1%, HMY +3.1%, AU +2.7%, AUY +2.4%, SLW +2.4%, ABX +2%, GGB +1.7%, GDX +1.6%, NVO +1.6%, PBR +1.5%, GOLD +1.4%, SWN +1.4%, SLV +1.3%, PAA +1.2%, COP +1.1%, VALE +1%, SPWR +0.9%, GLD +0.9%

Gapping down: CRIS -13.1%, YY -3.5%, SDRL -2.7%, DB -2.4%, LYG -2.4%, CLF -2.1%, RAD -1.9%, BCS -1.8%, AZN -1.8%, CS -1.8%, HSBC -1.8%, RDS.A -1.5%, CNHI -1.5%, STM -1.4%, MT -1.4%, C -1.3%, BHP -1.3%, BP -1.3%, UL -1.3%, GSK -1.2%, FCX -1.2%, RIO -1.1%, BAC -1.1%

FT : Saudi Arabia sets high bar for Opec supply deal

Saudi Arabia sets high bar for Opec supply deal
The group’s de facto leader pressures Iran and Iraq to accept larger share of cuts

Saudi Arabia has set a high bar for any oil supply deal ahead of Wednesday’s Opec meeting in Vienna, as it attempts to put pressure on regional rivals Iran and Iraq to accept a larger share of output cuts.

The oil production cartel is trying to reach an agreement to curb supplies for the first time since the financial crisis and put an end to a protracted two-year downturn in crude prices that has battered the economies of its members.

Saudi Arabia, the group’s de facto leader, has offered to cut 4.5 per cent from its production levels of around 10.5m b/d in October, according to two people familiar with its thinking.

But in turn, Iran must freeze its production at around 3.8m b/d, while all members must accept the use of third-party production figures published by Opec, the people said. On top of that there must also be participation from producers outside the group, such as Russia.

Iran, however, argues only those countries that have ramped up production over the past two years — Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies — should cut back now.

Saudi Arabia’s hardline stance risks a further drop in prices, which traders have warned could fall by almost a quarter should a deal to curb output not materialise after nine months of talks between the 14-member cartel.

Brent crude oil, the international marker, was trading down 45 cents at $46.80 a barrel on Monday, extending a 4 per cent slide on Friday as traders became more cautious about the prospect of a deal.

While some analysts see the tough Saudi line as brinkmanship ahead of the ministerial meeting, the world’s biggest oil exporter has appeared less desperate to clinch a deal in recent days.

“The market will reach balance in 2017 even if there is no intervention by Opec,” said Khalid Al Falih, Saudi Arabia’s powerful energy minister, on Sunday. “I think maintaining production at current levels is justifiable.”

Saudi Arabia also decided not to attend a meeting with non-Opec countries, which was scheduled for Monday, until the cartel itself had reached a deal.

Opec is meeting in Vienna to try finalise and preliminary deal agreed in Algiers two months ago that would reduce its production to between 32.5m and 33m barrels a day and help mop up a persistent supply glut. The stakes are high. A failure to reach a deal could see crude oil fall below $40 a barrel.

“One thing few, if any, analysts will disagree with is that if Opec does not come up with a credible agreement to cut production on Wednesday oil prices will end the year below $40 and be chasing down $30 early next year,” said David Hufton of PVM, a London-based oil brokerage.

Mr Hufton’s view echoed that of Torbjörn Törnqvist, chief executive of oil trader Gunvor Group, who told the Financial Times prices could drop by $10 a barrel without a deal.

How the production curbs will be distributed has dragged out between Opec members with no concrete agreement yet reached. A last-minute diplomatic push is still underway with Algeria and Venezuela seeking to bridge any differences. An output target of 32.5m b/d would require a supply cut of 1.3m b/d.

Iran, which is recovering from years of Western sanctions, believes the Algiers accord laid out the case for the country to be exempt from any production deal in the same manner as conflict-ridden Nigeria and Libya. It is targeting production of at least 4m b/d.

“Saudis seem to have reneged on earlier promises,” Iran said in its state-news agency Mehr on Sunday.

While Saudi Arabia believes Iran should be shown some flexibility, it still wants its fierce regional rival involved in any deal. As such, the Kingdom is supporting a proposal for Iran to take its highest production between 2002 and 2016 and reduce it by 4.5 per cent which would hit 3.8m b/d. To put that figure in context. Iran produced 3.72m/b of crude oil in October, according to secondary sources quotes by Opec.

Iran argues only those countries that have ramped up production over the past two years, since Saudi Arabia led Opec into a market share war with rivals, should cut back now.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers have accelerated output to record levels in the last two years.

“Iran had played no part in creating the overhang of supplies that have built up after November 2014, so why should we contribute to any production cut,” said one person familiar with Iran’s position.

Iraq, meanwhile, has reluctantly said it will be part of any deal but it has disputed the underlying figures from which any output curbs will be calculated.

But even if OPEC came to an agreement, Saudi Arabia has told OPEC members that any cut in production must be conditional on participation from producers outside the group, such as Russia, the people familiar with Saudi policy-making said.

Moscow has offered to freeze its output if OPEC reached a deal.

(MS) 2017 Global FX Outlook

Top 10 FX Trades
USD has entered its last leg within a secular bull market. We expect USD to be driven by widening rate and investment return differentials. USD strength should be front-loaded against low-yielding currencies, particularly JPY and KRW. Later
in the cycle we see USD strength broadening out with the help of rising US real rates, specifically hitting high-yielding currencies. Higher real rates should eventually tighten financial conditions, increasing the headwinds for the US economy and marking the turning point for USD after 1Q18.

1) Long USD/JPY
Yield differentials driving outflows from Japan and higher inflation expectations.
2) Long USD/KRW
Diverging growth and monetary policy to increase outflows from Korea.
3) Short EUR/GBP
No new negative UK news allows the undervalued GBP to recover.
4) Long USD/NOK
Norway government's slower fiscal support to make long NOK positions adjust.
5) Short AUD/CAD
Reflects the diverging US-China economic growth stories.
6) Short SGD/INR
Relative external sector dependence, China exposure and debt overhangs.
7) Long USD/CNH
RMB weakens from capital outflows and diverging monetary policy from the US.
8) Long BRL/COP
We expect reform momentum and high yields to cushion external risks
9) Long RUB/ZAR
Continued tight monetary policy should help RUB outperform
10) Long CHF/JPY
Yield differentials weaken JPY, while CHF is a good eurozone political risk hedge.