TheChek News Flow

Congress is set to miss 12:01 a.m. deadline to fund federal agencies

The federal government was poised for a shutdown after Senate Republicans and Democrats rejected opposing funding proposals.

A shutdown could lead to mass firings of federal workers, in addition to furloughs for hundreds of thousands of employees.

Democrats are demanding restoration of hundreds of billions of dollars in healthcare funding, including enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies.

WASHINGTON—The federal government was on course to shut down early Wednesday, after Senate Republicans and Democrats rejected rival proposals that would have prevented the first lapse in funding since President Trump’s first term.

Trump issued new threats to Democrats on Tuesday while also signaling he could be open for more discussions regarding their demands for healthcare funding. Disagreements among Republicans on healthcare policy and pressure on Democrats from the party’s left flank ended any hopes for dealmaking, with funding running out at 12:01 a.m. A meeting Monday at the White House involving Trump and congressional leaders of both parties yielded no agreement.

A shutdown would push the U.S. into uncharted territory. White House officials, who have been eager to cut the government workforce, said they would use a lapse in funding to carry out mass firings of federal workers, on top of the typical furloughs of hundreds of thousands of employees.

Late Tuesday, Democratic senators again rejected a Republican measure extending government funding for seven weeks, while Republicans rejected Democrats’ proposal. Both measures had failed previously. While Republicans have a 53-47 Senate majority, 60 votes are needed to advance any bill.

Shortly after the failed votes Tuesday night, White House budget director Russell Vought said federal employees should report to their next shift to “execute their plans for an orderly shutdown.”

Trump said earlier that the country was doing well and “the last thing we want to do is shut it down.” But he warned he could use a lapse in funding to flex his executive powers at Democrats’ expense. “We can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible, that are bad for them and irreversible by them,” he said, pointing to possible workforce and program cuts.

Early in the day, Democrats leaned on Trump to rally Republicans behind some sort of deal, while questioning whether he was taking the situation seriously, after he posted a late-night AI-generated video mocking Democrats.

“It’s only the president who can do this. We know he runs the show here,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) said Tuesday on the Senate floor. Still, he said, “we have less than a day to figure this out and Donald Trump is busy tweeting deepfakes.”

Schumer later said Trump’s threats about cuts to jobs and services show he was admitting “that he is using Americans as political pawns.”

The Congressional Budget Office estimated Tuesday that about 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed in a shutdown. All government workers typically get back pay, though contractors might not.

The president has largely avoided engaging publicly on Democrats’ demands, instead defaulting to talking points casting Democrats as holding out for benefits for immigrants who entered the country illegally. In his comments to reporters Tuesday, Trump said of Democrats: “We had a good discussion, and we’re going to see what happens. We’re going to see what happens.”

Regarding healthcare, he said he suggested changes to “make Obamacare much better” but said Republicans can’t allow Democrats to “charge tremendous amounts of money for healthcare for people that aren’t even citizens.”

Sen. Patty Murray (D., Wash.) said that rather than defending their positions on the merits, “it seems like the only sentence that Republicans can form these days consists of a noun, verb and ‘illegal immigrant.’ ”

Schumer, who in March agreed to vote with Republicans to keep the government open despite sharp opposition from many Democrats, has vowed this time to hold the line. The GOP bill failed Tuesday evening on a vote of 55 in favor, 45 against, short of the 60 required.

One Republican, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, voted against the bill. Three members of the Democratic caucus voted with Republicans: Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Angus King of Maine.

“I want to stand up to Donald Trump, but to me, handing him more power is not standing up to him—it’s just the opposite,” said King, who added that he feared mass firings or program cuts. Cortez Masto said a shutdown would hurt Nevada families and hand even more power to the “reckless” Trump administration.

Democrats want to restore hundreds of billions of dollars in healthcare funding. They are focusing in particular on enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies that expire this year but also demanding that cuts to Medicaid be restored. Their effort, which proposed funding the government through Oct. 31, failed in a party line Senate vote, with 47 in favor and 53 opposed.

Republicans reiterated that the House passed the GOP plan to fund the government through Nov. 21 and said Senate Democrats were being unreasonable for holding out for healthcare spending now—rather than discussing the matter after passing the short-term patch.

“The president is ready to sign it,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) said in a floor speech. “Senate Democrats are standing in the way.”

Sen. John Barrasso (R., Wyo.) said Schumer was bowing to the left wing of his party. “The American people should not suffer the cost and the consequences of a Schumer shutdown because he is politically toxic in his own party,” he said.

The Trump administration has broad latitude to determine which workers are essential or nonessential during a lapse in funding. A shutdown would restrict a range of government operations, though critical services would continue, and Americans would continue to get Social Security payments and mail deliveries.

Democrats have brushed off the threats of firings, saying that Trump officials have already laid off swaths of the federal workforce since January.

Talks on Monday between Trump and congressional leaders failed to produce a bipartisan path forward. Some Republicans are eager to work with Democrats to save the enhanced ACA subsidies, which were first passed in 2021 by Democrats during the Covid-19 pandemic, while others say they are bad policy.

“We’re not trying to chop the traditional ACA subsidies, we’re just letting this other one sunset,” said Sen. Roger Marshall (R., Kan.).

If the enhanced ACA subsidies expire, millions of Obamacare enrollees could see their health-insurance bills rise, often by hundreds of dollars or more a year.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) canceled votes this week in an effort to box in Democrats. But House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.) ordered Democrats to come to Capitol Hill to be ready to act quickly in the unlikely event that a bipartisan deal came together, as well as to show the public they were at work while Republicans weren’t.

“We’re on duty. They’re on vacation,” Jeffries said as Democrats crowded behind him on the House steps. “They’re on vacation because they’d rather shut the government down than protect the healthcare of the American people. That’s unfathomable.”

People increasingly turn to do-it-yourself healthcare amid long waits for medical appointments and a rise in self-care options

Healthcare is fast becoming a do-it-yourself project for patients.

With a shortage of doctors, long wait times for appointments and an increasing prevalence of chronic diseases such as diabetes earlier in adulthood, patients are taking a more active role in managing their own health.

Similar to the way workers who once depended on employers to oversee their retirement pensions were handed the reins with 401(k) plans, patients are shouldering responsibility for diagnosing their own symptoms, tracking their own medical data and even ordering their own lab tests.

The challenges aren’t unlike those of managing one’s own financial portfolio: vetting sources of information, evaluating new products and making informed decisions about complex topics. In today’s fast-evolving healthcare landscape, AI and other new technologies and services are emerging to help patients find and act on medical information.

The DIY health trend brings risks like relying on diagnostic and treatment information that hasn’t been reviewed by a clinician, says Dr. Tom Delbanco, a professor at Harvard Medical School whose focus is primary care. But he sees significant benefits. “The evidence shows that the more a patient gets involved in their own care, the better the outcomes,” he says. “In the future, primary-care doctors could act more as expert consultants rather than paternalistic bosses to patients.” Here are some of the most important developments shaping the new patient paradigm—and precautions that come with using them.

Companies that process lab tests for doctors, like Labcorp and Quest Diagnostics, have been expanding the range of tests they offer directly to consumers. Quest, for instance, offers more than 150 tests ranging from a $29 complete blood count, which helps identify anemia and other blood disorders, to specific blood tests for micronutrient deficiencies and tests for several sexually transmitted diseases. The tests aren’t covered by insurance, but some may be eligible for special accounts using pretax money to pay for health costs.

Quest says among its most popular tests is a $385 comprehensive health profile that analyzes more than 75 markers including those related to heart, kidney and liver health, as well as diabetes risk. It includes an evaluation taking in family history, lifestyle, and wellness behaviors, and creates a health-risk score ranging from 1 to 100.

Most blood tests involve blood drawing at a Quest service center, but consumers can also pay $79 for an in-home appointment from a mobile phlebotomist in some markets.

The company is responding to demand by patients who want to be more involved in their care and control their own data, says Quest Chief Medical Officer Dr. Yuri Fesko. Quest contracts with physicians who must review and approve orders; they are also available to consult on the results. With a shortage of both primary-care doctors and specialists, Fesko says, the consumer-ordered tests can help identify those most in need of follow-up and identify red flags early. Both Labcorp and Quest encourage patients to follow up with their own physician to review results and determine any next steps.

More companies are offering wellness plans and supplements directly to consumers based on data from blood tests, DNA analysis and data from wearable devices. A 2023 study of 21 companies that offer direct-to-consumer tests cautioned that the trend raises ethical issues, including the use of personal data and the potential lack of follow-up for abnormal results.

Anna Wexler, an author of the study and assistant professor of medical ethics and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, says consumers should stick to tests that have been shown to give reliable results. Tests that claim to estimate biological age, identify food sensitivities, and predict fertility, for example, often don’t meet validated clinical standards and may mislead consumers or lead them to buy products that they don’t need, she says.

Technology is growing beyond the already-popular use of smartphones or smartwatches to track steps per day, sleep quality or heart health. Roughly two-thirds of respondents in a recent survey of 1,653 adults by the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania said they used such apps to track health information. Patients with atrial fibrillation can now monitor their heart rhythm with a do-it-yourself electrocardiogram on devices that interface with a smartphone app and range from $79 to $129.

New devices can screen for sleep apnea, measure blood pressure without arm cuffs and detect early signs of illness. In development are “smart mirrors” that use sensors, displays and software to monitor changes in appearance, mood or vital signs while patients are brushing their teeth and getting ready for the day.

Data privacy is a concern. In one study by U.K. researchers, participants with health conditions like multiple sclerosis and stroke said they would be interested in a smart mirror that would help them manage their symptoms and offer support—if they had control over who used the data.

Devices are becoming better at not only tracking symptoms but predicting their onset. For patients with respiratory diseases like asthma, researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology used AI to develop a wearable patch with a seismometer microchip that can detect tiny vibrations or wheezing sounds that could signal the need for treatment. Studies by the Georgia Tech group, including one published in March in the journal Nature, showed it to be highly accurate. Such patches could be used for home monitoring by transmitting data to the patient’s doctor, the researchers said. A spinoff from the university is commercializing the patch with federal funding.

A special home phototherapy device to treat psoriasis is as effective as going to a doctor’s office for the therapy, according to research funded by the National Psoriasis Foundation. Patients also used the treatment more consistently and had fewer indirect costs such as travel and time off from work. Some insurers are already covering the home treatment, and the foundation is supporting expanded coverage.

The AI chatbot

Both patients and caregivers are turning to ChatGPT and other AI chatbots for help diagnosing symptoms, managing chronic diseases, getting advice on exercise and nutrition and researching treatment for serious or rare diseases.

“AI doesn’t care how many questions you ask it, it can provide expertise and translate the medical jargon, and your time is not up after 15 or 20 minutes,” says Laura Adams, a senior adviser to the National Academy of Medicine and co-author of a recent report on the use of AI health tools.

Consumers don’t always find AI health information reliable, leading some healthcare providers to develop their own AI tools for their patient portals. And a report published in the New England Journal of Medicine’s NEJM AI in December warned of “an urgent need to assist patients with using these new technologies as safely and effectively as possible,” citing concerns about misinformation, lack of regulation, data-privacy risks, and insufficient research on the actual benefits and harms of patient use of AI.

However, Adams notes, “Patients are saying, ‘Look, if I have to wait six weeks to see a specialist to get answers about this, that is a safety risk for me as well.’”

Hugo Campos, who lives with an implanted cardiac device and has served on health-related federal advisory boards as a patient advocate, says he uses AI extensively to research health issues. He advises patients to formulate clear questions, provide all the relevant context about their conditions and request different possible diagnoses rather than a single answer.

“[AI] is not a one-and-done answer machine,” Campos says. “It’s a partner and a tool for helping advance your ability to comprehend things and think critically through a complex problem.”

Some patient advocates and medical experts predict AI chatbots will evolve into more sophisticated healthcare agents, coaching behavior, organizing data and even working with clinicians to monitor patients.

AI is also being explored for use in online patient communities to help members better analyze their own data, find the right care and collaborate more effectively. “AI is going to be at the center of how the next generation of online communities work,” says Gilles Frydman, a digital-health expert and a founder of online patient communities Smart Patients and the Association of Cancer Online Resources.

Economic uncertainty has taken a toll on wealthy buyers and sellers

Luxury homeowners who kept buying and selling real estate even as the overall housing market contracted in recent years are slowing their roll.

The number of luxury-home sales nationwide dropped 0.7% during the three months ended Aug. 31, compared with the same period last year, according to data from real-estate brokerage Redfin, which said luxury sales nationwide dropped to the lowest level for that period since it began tracking the market in 2013.

Price growth also slowed. During the three months ended Aug. 31, the median sale price for luxury properties—defined as the top 5% of the market—increased 3.9% year over year to $1.25 million, according to Redfin. But that is down from a 6.1% year-over-year price jump for the three months ended Aug. 31, 2024.

“The luxury market seems to be weaker than the rest of the housing market right now—which is already pretty weak,” said Chen Zhao, head of economics research at Redfin, citing a 0.6% drop in nonluxury sales during the period, compared with the luxury market’s 0.7% drop. “It kind of speaks to the economic uncertainty of the moment and some of the volatility we’ve experienced.”

For the past few years, luxury homeowners, who are less impacted by interest rates, have propped up the housing market with discretionary purchases. Following the tariff shock of early April, however, buyers and sellers across the spectrum saw dramatic swings in household wealth that took a toll on spring and summer purchasing.

“This injected a substantial hesitancy to make large financial decisions among many prospective luxury-home buyers and sellers,” said Patrick Carlisle, Compass’s chief market analyst in the San Francisco Bay Area, where August home sales above $5 million dropped 13% from August 2024.

“Buyers are being cautious about their investments,” said Kim Bedwell of Briggs Freeman Sotheby’s International Realty in Dallas, who said there are more $5 million-plus homes on the market in the city’s affluent suburbs than she has seen in a while.

Luxury prices, which became “overinflated” during Covid, are returning to prepandemic norms, said Bedwell. In August, she sold a roughly 13,600-square-foot home in Westlake, a suburb of Dallas-Fort Worth, that was last asking $10.995 million, down from the original asking price of $12.5 million in January. (Texas is a nondisclosure state, so sale prices are not public.) Buyers in the $2.5 million-plus range are not rate sensitive, said Bedwell, “but they’re also not willing to overpay.”

Nationally, Redfin found the number of luxury listings is on the upswing. During the three months ended Aug. 31, inventory rose 9.5% year over year to the highest level—for that time period—since 2020, Redfin data show. Nonluxury inventory rose 13.4% year over year.

Zhao said the market is experiencing a “bounceback effect” because inventory dried up during the Covid-era boom, and owners were holding on to properties because they had nowhere else to go. More recently, she said, life circumstances—such as relocation for a job, birth of a new baby, a divorce or death—could have forced some sellers off the sidelines. Others feel uneasy about the economy, and want to gain liquidity by selling real estate. “You’ll get very disparate stories when you hone in on individual markets,” she said. “There’s no such thing as a national luxury market.”

Where sales increased

Despite the national drop in luxury sales, for example, luxury home sales have increased in markets such as Indianapolis, Ind., where sales rose 19.1% year over year, and Fort Worth, where sales were up 14% year over year. The median luxury sale price in Indianapolis was flat while listings rose 16.1% year over year; in Fort Worth, the median luxury sale price rose 0.2% year over year while listings jumped 25.7% over the same period.

“Our luxury market is the busiest it’s been,” said longtime Indianapolis real-estate agent Bif Ward of the F.C. Tucker Co., citing the popularity of places such as Carmel, about 20 miles north of Indianapolis, which has been dubbed the internet’s favorite small city.

Even properties at the very top of the luxury market—asking $10 million or more—are selling faster than they ever did, according to agents in the area. An estate in Carmel owned by the late Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay sold for $11.75 million in September, closing just two months after it was listed for $12 million. Ward said one of her clients planned to fly in to see the property three days after it hit the market, but it was already under contract by then so they never came.

Where low inventory is hobbling deals

In Miami, low inventory has had a chilling effect on the luxury market, contributing to the market’s decline in sales, local real-estate agents said. Although the median luxury sale price rose 9.8% year over year to $4.2 million during the three months ended Aug. 31, sales dropped 19.4% year over year, Redfin data show.

The Corcoran Group’s Julian Johnston recently had plans to meet with two prospective buyers from California, each looking to spend $20 million to $40 million. He only had about a dozen properties to show them that met their criteria, he said.

Prices for available properties are climbing. Last year, Johnston sold a roughly 8,300-square-foot waterfront property for $23.9 million. The owner is fielding so many offers that Johnston is getting ready to list it for $32 million.

Where inventory is rising

Several cities are tracking closely with the national trend of higher inventory. In Fort Worth, luxury listings rose 25.7% year over year, while listings were up 25.4% in Tampa, Fla., and 20.5% in San Antonio.

In Tampa, the luxury market was impacted by last year’s Hurricane Helene, which damaged some waterfront homes, said local real-estate agent Toni Everett. Luxury sales during the three months ended Aug. 31 dropped 9.4% year over year while the median luxury sale price dipped 5.5%, according to Redfin.

Everett said one of her clients listed a waterfront home for $6.125 million before Helene made landfall in September 2024; she cut the price to $5.65 million but is only getting offers between $3.5 million to $4.5 million.

Following the Federal Reserve’s September interest-rate cut, agents predict increased sales activity. Fort Worth real-estate agent John Zimmerman of Compass said his buyers are scrambling to make deals before inventory drops again and prices escalate. Recently, he listed a $4.999 million spec home in the Colonial neighborhood that fetched a full-price offer within two days.

Decision could hasten decline of investment funds with higher fee structures and lower transparency

A long-awaited ruling by US regulators could pave the way for a dramatic shake-up of the nation’s $34tn fund industry, accelerating a decade-long exodus from mutual funds.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has granted Dimensional Fund Advisors, the largest issuer of actively managed exchange traded funds in the US, the right to add ETF share classes to its mutual funds.

The decision, two years after Dimensional first filed for permission, is the first time the SEC has allowed any other asset manager to follow the lead set by Vanguard, the world’s second-largest asset manager, which patented the “ETF-as-a-share-class” concept in the US in 2001, even though the patent expired in 2023.

The ruling is expected to open the door to an avalanche of new ETF share classes of mutual funds, given that almost 80 other fund managers, including BlackRock and Fidelity, have also applied to the SEC for permission.

But the move could also hasten the decline of mutual funds, which have traditionally had higher fees than ETFs and price only once a day. ETFs, which trade on exchanges, price throughout the trading day and are also more transparent, as they disclose their full underlying investments.

The “ETF-as-a-share-class” structure allows an asset manager to operate a mutual fund and a sister ETF as essentially the same vehicle, generating superior tax efficiency and economies of scale.

While the change might seem technical, the repercussions could be far- reaching: a potential explosion in ETF launches and the withering of the venerable US mutual fund industry, which has haemorrhaged $2tn of money from equity funds alone over the past 10 years but still holds $25tn on behalf of 116mn individual investors, according to the Investment Company Institute, a trade body.

“Investment advisers and brokers are going to need to think about how they are going to justify mutual fund share classes or ETF share classes if they are both available,” said Jennifer Klass, a partner at law firm K&L Gates.

“It’s not entirely clear how you would justify using a mutual fund share class if an ETF share class is available, when you look at the fees charged, the tax efficiency and the liquidity of the share class,” she added.

Gerard O’Reilly, co-chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Dimensional, said it was “a possibility” that every mutual fund manager in the US might launch sister ETFs.

“It wouldn’t surprise me at all if other managers consider the same approach,” O’Reilly said. “They want to have the flexibility to convert their existing mutual funds into ETF share classes.”

The ETF-as-a-share-class model potentially allows investors to benefit from a quirk in the US tax system.

Mutual fund investors are often hit with an annual capital gains tax bill even if they remain invested, as the fund itself may have to pay tax if it has sold out of any profitable positions, either due to portfolio rebalancing or to meet redemption requests.

However, ETFs largely avoid these charges due to their “in-kind” structure that allows them to pass their winning positions to market makers without triggering a tax charge.

Mutual fund investors will be able to switch to sister ETFs without incurring capital gains tax, giving them access to ETFs’ greater flexibility and liquidity. The development could also provide some benefits to mutual funds.

“This is a good thing for investors, allowing them to have access to the same strategy in either format,” said Deborah Fuhr, founder of consultancy ETFGI.

Household energy supplier makes disclosure after failing to meet industry regulator’s capital adequacy targets

Ovo Group has warned of “material uncertainty” over its ability to continue as a going concern, raising questions over the future of one of the UK’s largest household energy suppliers. 

The company said in its latest accounts that, while it is forecast to have sufficient liquidity in the period to September 2026, there were questions over the timing and extent of a capitalisation plan to meet new regulatory requirements. 

“Certain elements [of the plan] are outside of the control of the group,” Ovo added. “This creates a material uncertainty which may cast a significant doubt on the group’s . . . ability to continue as a going concern.”

Going concern warnings alert the market that, in a worst-case scenario, a company may not be able to meet its liabilities and could face insolvency.

Ovo’s accounts also show that it breached some of its covenants with lenders last year, although no action was taken against it and the facilities were fully repaid. It also took advantage of an extended payment facility with a key supplier. 

Ovo, whose UK household energy division has roughly 4mn customers, said it was a “fully funded entity backed by long-standing shareholders”.

Last week Ovo confirmed it was one of three energy companies that are not yet meeting new capital buffer targets set by Ofgem, the industry regulator.

Octopus Energy, now Britain’s largest household energy supplier, is also not hitting the targets, together with another company that has not been identified.

Ovo and Octopus were both set up to challenge the dominance of the former Big Six energy suppliers such as British Gas and EDF, and have grown rapidly over the past decade. 

“Capital adequacy requirements are new, and all suppliers are working with them for the first time,” an Ovo spokesperson said. “This is not a reflection on our ability to serve our customers or on performance this year and we will continue to focus on bringing innovation and long-term investment to the sector.”

Ofgem established its capital buffer targets after 30 energy suppliers collapsed in 2021 and 2022 when they were unable to withstand a surge in wholesale prices driven by an increase in demand after the Covid pandemic.

Ovo’s newly published accounts, for the year ending December 31 2024, show that it recorded an operating loss of £108mn.

That compared with a profit of £1.1bn in 2023, with much of the swing to the loss in 2024 caused by changes in the value of Ovo’s energy trading contracts.   

After repaying £400mn to lenders in January, Ovo said it has a new £60mn loan from hedge fund Cheyne Capital Management, with interest payable at 12 per cent “plus variable rate”, on a compound basis.

In a press release accompanying the accounts, Ovo said it had showed a “year of progress” in which it extended the reach of its software platform, Kaluza, to millions of customers around the world. 

“We’re putting power back into the hands of customers and accelerating the transition to clean, affordable energy,” said David Buttress, chief executive of Ovo’s household energy division.

Gulf sovereign wealth funds defy lower oil prices to top global investment

Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala is biggest spender as Middle East state-owned investors account for 40% of flows

Sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East are set to outspend global peers for a fourth conservative year with 40 per cent of all flows, despite lower oil prices and Saudi Arabia increasingly focusing on domestic investments. 

State-owned investors across the Middle East and north Africa region

spent $56.3bn in the first nine months of this year, a similar level to the same period in 2024, according to estimates by Global SWF, a research consultancy specialising in sovereign investors.

The report comes days after a consortium backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund signed a $55bn deal to take video games maker Electronic Arts private, highlighting the continued financial clout of the kingdom and other state-owned investment entities in the wider region.

Sustained investment by Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, the vast majority in the Gulf, comes even as Brent crude prices have fallen to an average $69.93 per barrel this year, down from $81.82 in the first nine months of 2024, prompting speculation that it may constrain governments’ spending.

Gulf sovereign wealth funds have topped spending on overseas investments since 2022 — when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine led to a surge in energy prices — and the Global SWF data shows that their finances have remained strong even as oil prices have eased.

Diego López, managing director and founder of Global SWF, said the findings showed that lower oil prices were not affecting countries equally and that the majority had healthy finances.

“Four out of the six GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] countries are still in surplus,” he said. “Money is still flowing to the sovereign wealth funds, they have to put it to work . . . that is one of the reasons that they keep being quite aggressive in the marketplace.”

Global SWF’s estimates are extrapolated from publicly available information as Gulf sovereign wealth funds generally do not report quarterly data and some, such as Abu Dhabi and Qatar’s investment authorities, do not reveal the size of their assets or many of their deals.

The outlay by Gulf sovereign wealth funds has come even as the regional heavyweight, Saudi Arabia’s $925bn PIF, has said it intends to concentrate on domestic investments, with just a fifth of its investments deployed abroad.

López said that even with 80 per cent of the PIF’s portfolio allocated domestically, that would still leave about $200bn to be deployed in other countries, meaning that “they’re still a very active investor overseas”.

Abu Dhabi’s state-owned investment company Mubadala was the most active spender in the nine months to the end of September with $17.4bn, according to Global SWF’s estimates. The emirate’s sovereign wealth fund, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, came second with $9.6bn, while Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund spent $7.6bn.

Mubadala, which invests in both developed and emerging markets, is “doing everything, everywhere, all at the same time”, López said. The $330bn Abu Dhabi investor previously reported that it had increased investments by a third in 2024 to $32.4bn.

ADIA, Mubadala and Qatar Investment Authority all declined to comment on Global SWF’s figures. 

Nike thumps expectations despite 31% fall in earnings

Sportswear company takes financial hit from Donald Trump’s tariffs

Nike reported revenue and profits that surpassed expectations, showing its turnaround efforts are beginning to take hold even as the shoe and sportswear company warned of a $1.5bn hit from US tariffs.

Shares rose 4 per cent in after-hours trading after Nike reported revenue of $11.7bn in the quarter that ended in August, up 1 per cent year on year and beating the consensus estimate of $11bn.

Net profit was $727mn, down 31 per cent year on year but almost double estimates from analysts polled by Visible Alpha.

The world’s largest athletic goods company has faltered in recent years under pressures including the rise of competing brands such as On and Hoka, the after-effects of a move into direct-to-consumer sales as well as the costs of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.

Nike chief executive Elliott Hill returned from retirement last year to attempt a turnaround. Revenues were driven by a 7 per cent rise in its wholesale business supplying third-party stores such as Foot Locker. The company has sought to rebuild relationships with retailers and refocus on core product lines such as performance running shoes after drifting into casual wear.

“Nike’s journey back to greatness has only just begun,” Hill said on a call with analysts.

Tariffs on imports from manufacturing centres in China and south-east Asia have increased costs for shoe companies such as Nike. Factories in Vietnam, now subject to a 20 per cent tariff, made more than half of the group’s footwear last year and almost a third of its apparel.

Based on the latest levies, Matthew Friend, chief financial officer, raised his estimate of the annual cost of tariffs to about $1.5bn, up 50 per cent from the $1bn forecast three months ago and equal to about 3 per cent of Nike’s $46.3bn in revenue last year. The company has been shifting sites of production to help manage tariff costs.

Nike’s revenues rose in every region but greater China, where they dropped 10 per cent to $1.5bn. Operating profit in China fell 25 per cent to $377mn.

Hill said the market was facing “structural challenges”, but “we believe in the long-term opportunity in China” with the promise of sales of running, training, basketball and football shoes and gear.

Nike’s gross profit margin declined from 45.4 per cent to 42.2 per cent year on year, “primarily due to lower average selling price, reflecting higher discounts and channel mix, as well as higher tariffs in North America”, it said.

Hill said his team took a lesson from England’s close football victory over Spain in the 2025 Uefa Women’s European Championship, which he said he watched in person.

“That is a team that knows what it takes to make a comeback. We were all inspired here at Nike,” Hill added.

Global Infrastructure Partners in talks to acquire energy group that supplies power to data centres

BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners is nearing a $38bn deal to buy utility group AES in what would be one of the largest infrastructure takeovers of all time, said people briefed on the matter.

GIP, a pioneer of specialised infrastructure takeovers, is poised to acquire AES within the coming days, the people said. GIP owns stakes in London’s Gatwick airport and large pipeline networks in the US and Middle East.

The deal will value AES at around $38bn including its large debts, said two people briefed on the matter. They added that talks were at an advanced stage, but could still fail to yield a deal.

GIP declined to comment. AES did not immediately respond to requests seeking comment.

AES, one of the largest publicly traded utilities in the US, owns and operates power plants across the country and in 13 other nations.

It has invested heavily in recent years in renewable energy grids, which play a crucial role in supplying power to data centres owned by technology giants such as Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet.

Shares in AES have traded down more than 30 per cent over the past year. Investors have cooled on the company because of its focus on renewable energy as US President Donald Trump has withdrawn green energy tax credits.

AES carries $29bn in debt, including more than $5bn at its parent company. Its market capitalisation stands at $9.4bn, implying an enterprise value of more than $38bn.

As the energy needed for artificial intelligence fuels an uptick in power demand, large infrastructure funds have seized on the need for more data centre capacity. Companies such as Meta and Oracle are also working on their own debt-financed data centre projects.

BlackRock acquired GIP last year for $12.5bn and now manages nearly $200bn in assets worldwide, making it one of the largest specialised infrastructure investment groups globally.

GIP has a history with the utility sector. Last year, it struck a $6.2bn deal to take public utility company Allete private.

Bloomberg in July reported AES was considering a sale after fielding takeover interest from the likes of GIP and Brookfield.

The European Commission has cleared Prada's acquisition of Versace’s parent company, Givi Holding, citing no competition concerns.

MILAN — The Prada Group has received the European Commission’s green light to acquire Versace.

On Tuesday, the EU cleared Prada’s purchase of Versace’s parent Givi Holding Srl stating that it “would not raise competition concerns, given the companies’ limited market positions resulting from the proposed transaction.”

The operation, in accordance with EU regulations on concentration, pertains mainly to the design, production and distribution of luxury goods.

Prada, which also controls the Miu Miu, Car Shoe and Church’s brands, has said its Versace acquisition would close in the second half of 2025.

In April, the Prada Group revealed the acquisition of Versace from Capri Holdings for an enterprise value of 1.25 billion euros, shortly after Donatella Versace was named chief brand ambassador and left the creative director role after almost three decades at the helm of the brand.

She was succeeded by Miu Miu alum Dario Vitale, who unveiled his first collection for the brand last Friday, receiving positive reviews from retailers for his colorful and audacious designs that he said embraced Gianni Versace’s legacy. Donatella Versace did not attend Vitale’s debut.

Upon the news of the deal, Lorenzo Bertelli, head of CSR at Prada Group, said that “a lot of people may think that Versace is far away from the aesthetics of our existing brand portfolio, but I believe this is exactly a strength for our group, because there are no overlaps in terms of creativity and in terms of customers.” For this reason, the acquisition “is super important to really reach new audiences and to express a different kind of message,” adding he was confident in the “huge potential” of Versace.

In the first half, Prada Group revenues rose 8 percent to 2.74 billion euros. Chief financial officer Andrea Bonini at the time said Versace was expected to achieve revenues of $810 million in 2024 with an operating profit margin forecast to be high-single-digit negative. The brand operates through a global network of 227 stores. The Versace business was not included in Capri Holdings’ first-quarter sales as it is being categorized as a discontinued operation.