- Ambu (547A TH) +3.2%
- Babcock (BW3 TH) +1.9%
- Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +1.7%
- Novo Nordisk (NOV TH) +1.6%
- Anglo American (NGL0 TH) +1.3%
- IAG (INR TH) -1%
- Legrand (LRC TH) -1%
- RENK Group (R3NK TH) -1.3%
- Carnival Plc (POH1 TH) -1.5%
- Bavarian Nordic (BV3 TH) -1.8%
- Ferrovial (8ZQ TH) -5.7%
MDAX:
- RENK Group (R3NK TH) -1.6%
SDAX:
- Mutares (MUX TH) +1.5%
Equity-index futures for the US fell while gold hit a record for a second day as the looming government shutdown in the US cast doubt on the release of economic data key to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. Contracts for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index fell 0.4% after a stopgap funding bill to avoid the closure failed. The dollar steadied after three days of losses while while gold rose above $3,875 an ounce. Asian shares fell 0.4% with China and Hong Kong closed for a holiday. Treasuries were mostly flat with the yield on the 10-year at 4.15%.
The US government hurtled toward a shutdown as Congressional Democrats and President Donald Trump dug on a confrontation over health-care spending. The president raised the stakes in the fight, saying his administration may permanently fire “a lot” of federal workers in the event of a shutdown. Investor focus is squarely on the looming shutdown, which threatens to delay key economic reports used to gauge the Fed’s path on rate cuts. While most standoffs have ended in last-minute deals, past episodes have caused enough disruption in the federal bureaucracy to force Wall Street to weigh the potential fallout for US markets. The latest deadlock over spending threatens to paralyze many US government operations for the first time in nearly seven years, causing the suspension of services for Americans and paychecks for federal workers. Traders are concerned that the shutdown would delay the release of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economic data over the past month has shown that the labor market is slowing down while inflation is relatively under control — though still above the Fed’s 2% target. The shutdown will likely end when enough Democrats accede to a short-term funding bill that allows for health care negotiations and sets up another deadline later this fall, said Sarah Bianchi, a strategist at Evercore ISI, in a note late Tuesday. Traders have also been hearing from a handful of Fed speakers. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the most recent round of tariffs may be causing businesses in his district to again pause decision-making in order to see where the levies settle. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said policymakers should be cautious in considering additional interest-rate reductions while inflation remains above target and the labor market relatively balanced. US After Hours NKE +4.2% higher on earnings; LAC +30.9% on Bloomberg report US plans to take stake.
Nikkei -0.86% Hang Seng Closed CSI Closed Shanghai Closed Shenzen Closed
Eur$ 1.1757 CNH 7.1342 CNY 7.1214 JPY 147.58 GBP 1.3462 CHF 0.7945 RUB 82.8542 TRY 41.5853 WTI$ 62.55 +0.29% Gold 3,863.85 +0.13% BTC 114,308 -0.29% ETH 4,140 -1.32%
S&P -0.47% Nasdaq -0.52% EuroStoxx +0.05% FTSE +0.05% Dax -0.11% SMI +0.58%
Macro :
- Government Heads for Shutdown as Rival Votes Fail in Senate, Congress is set to miss 12:01 a.m. deadline to fund federal agencies - WSJ
- After Hours Summary: NKE +4.2% higher on earnings; LAC +30.9% on Bloomberg report US plans to take stake
- Gulf sovereign wealth funds defy lower oil prices to top global investment - FT
- James Anderson warns Nvidia’s $100bn OpenAI bet echoes dotcom bubble
- French Sept. New Car Registrations Rise 1%: PFA Association
Keep an eye on :
Keep an eye on :
- CFC GY : Aconnic Begins Restructuring Process in Switzerland
- AZQ US : BlackRock’s GIP Nears $38b Takeover of Utility Group AES: FT
- GOOGL US : *ALPHABET SHARES POST BEST QUARTER SINCE 2005 WITH 38% ADVANCE
- AMGN US : Biocon Settles Bone Drugs Patent Case With Amgen, to Sell in US
- ANTIN FP : Antin Infrastructure Takes Majority Stake in Swiftair Group
- APAM NA : Aperam Confirms 3Q 2025 Adj. EBITDA Outlook
- AAPL US : Apple Sued by EEOC for Religious Discrimination and Retaliation
- AAPL US : Apple Denies Harming Musk’s xAI by Teaming Up With OpenAI
- ARCAD NA : MPA Wins $665m Extension for Hudson Tunnel Delivery
- ARCAD NA : Arcadis Announces €175M Share Buyback Program
- ALCAR FP : Carmat Liquidation ‘Extremely Probable’ After Bid Lapses
- BN FP : Lifeway to Make Board Changes in Agreement With Danone
- DOCU US : Docusign Shares Plunge as OpenAI Launches DocuGPT Product
- ENTA US : Enanta Offering of 6.5m Shares Prices at $10/Share
- FLY US : *FIREFLY FALLS 21%, MOST SINCE AUG IPO, AFTER ROCKET TEST MISHAP
- GLB ID : Glanbia Holder Tirlan Co-Operative Society OfferNOVN SWs Shares
- GLB ID : Glanbia Holder Tirlan Co-Operative Society OfferNOVN SWs Shares
- GGDB IM : HongShan Made Non Binding Offer for Golden Goose: Repubblica
- INTUM SS : Intrum CEO Buys SEK980,000 of Shares in Swedish Debt Collector
- KKR US : KKR Makes Deeper Inroads Into Abu Dhabi With Gas Pipelines Deal
- LAR CN : Lithium Americas Confirms US Pact, Deal W/ GM on Nevada Project
- NANO FP : Nanobiotix : Au 30 juin, la trésorerie et les équivalents de trésorerie étaient de 28,8 millions d'euros
- NKE US : Nike 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates, Nike Rises as Turnaround Plans ‘Bearing Fruit’: Street Wrap
- 7201 JP : Nissan to Reboot Xterra SUV as a Hybrid, Freezes Plans for US EV
- 7201 JP : *Nissan Japan Sales Fell 20.0% on Year in Sep
- NOVN SW : Novartis Gets FDA Nod for Rhapsido
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk Investors Eye Alzheimer’s Trial for Glimmer of Hope
- NVDA US : How long can Nvidia stay ahead of Chinese competition? - FT
- OXY US : *BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY NEAR $10B DEAL FOR OCCIDENTAL'S OXYCHEM: WSJ
- OKLO US : Oklo, TRISO-X, Others Tapped for Nuclear Fuel Line Project
- PHAEMA NA : Pharming Group’s Leniolisib Gets FDA Priority Review for APDS
- 1913 HK : Prada : Prada Group Secures EU Approval for 1.25 Billion-euro Versace Acquisition, Deal Set to Close in 2025 - WWD
- QCOM US : Qualcomm Says Arm’s Last Remaining Legal Claim Rejected by Court
- REGN SW : *TRUMP PRAISES REGENERON COVID THERAPY
- RNO FP : French Sept. New Car Registrations Rise 1%: PFA Association
- SAB SM : Sabadell Board Rejects BBVA’s Improved $20 Billion Takeover Bid
- SAB SM : Sabadell Board Rejects BBVA’s Improved $20 Billion Takeover Bid
- SIKA SW : Sika Purchases Danish Mortar Manufacturer Marlon
- STAN LN : 1MDB Liquidators Lose Bid to Sue StanChart, BSI in Singapore: BT
- STLA IM : Stellantis to Pause Some Output at Two Plants in France: Echos
- 2330 TT : Taiwan Rejects US Request to Make Half Its Chips Locally: CNA
- TE FP : Technip Energies Gets 2 Services Contracts for Spain Project
- HO FP : Thales to Pay Interim Cash Dividend of €0.95/Share
- UCG IM : UniCredit Takes New Steps to Shrink Russia Business: Kommersant
- VK FP : Vallourec Gets Order With Petrobras for Submagnético Free Flow
- VAR NO : Var Energi Boosts Ownership in Ekofisk PPF Project
- VACN SW : VAT Path to Midterm View Faces Market, FX Hurdle: Equity Outlook
- VAHN SW : Vaudoise rachète Ecofin Investment Consulting
- VWS DC : Vestas Reports Three Orders in Italy for Total of 94 MW
- VWS DC : Vestas Wins New Orders in Northern and Central Europe
- VZ US : Geotab Buys Verizon Connect Telematics Unit in Europe, Australia
- ZG US : FTC Sues to Unwind Zillow-Redfin Rental Listing Partnership
- ZTS US : Zoetis Gets FDA Conditional Ok for New World Screwworm Treatment
>>> Up
* Ackermans PT Raised to 289 euros from 239 euros at Berenberg
* Autodesk Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $388
* Autostore Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 12 kroner
* Banco BBVA Argentina SA ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $17
* InterContinental Hotels Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Banco BBVA Argentina SA ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $17
* InterContinental Hotels Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* ITM Power PT Raised to 115 pence from 60 pence at Jefferies
* KGHM Raised to Buy at Erste Group; PT 185.90 zloty
* Legrand PT Raised to 165 euros from 147 euros at Citi
* Note Raised to Hold at Nordea
* Phoenix Group Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA
>>> Down
* AT&T Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $30
* Marvell Technology Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $85
* Nova Ljubljanska Cut to Accumulate at Erste Group; PT 200 euros
* Pihlajalinna Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 17.50 euros
* Pihlajalinna Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 17.50 euros
* Viasat Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $23
>>> Initiation
>>> Initiation
* ABB ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $58
* AQ Group Rated New Buy at SpareBank; PT 230 kronor
* ASML ADRs Rated New Buy at William O'Neil
* ASML Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil
* Bausch + Lomb Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT C$22.28
* Elastic Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $90
* Saab Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil
>>> Call
* IHG Earns Upgrade From Morgan Stanley, But Accor Still Favored
* Saab Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil
>>> Call
* IHG Earns Upgrade From Morgan Stanley, But Accor Still Favored
AI capex and the US economy
We have written a few times recently about the common if somewhat shapeless worry that if the AI boom were to turn into a bust, it would take the US economy into recession. A recent X post from the Harvard economist Jason Furman gives the worry more of a shape. He wrote:
Investment in information processing equipment & software is four per cent of GDP. But it was responsible for 92 per cent of GDP growth in the first half of this year. GDP excluding these categories grew at a 0.1 per cent annual rate in the first half.
Here are his charts:
We walked through Furman’s numbers and they look right. For a sense of scale, here is tech spending and AI superscaler capex as a percentage of nominal GDP (note Furman’s numbers are in real terms):
Unhedged has made two optimistic counterpoints to the dreary AI bust/recession hypothesis. First, the tax law that comes into effect next year allows investment projects to be fully depreciated in the first year. If this tax break could spark a wider capital spending boom, that could pick up where AI leaves off. Next, the build-up in tech investment as a share of the economy has been more gradual than the upwards bursts in spending during the housing or telecom bubbles. It might be part boom and part permanent secular change.
Dario Perkins of TS Lombard, arguing in a recent note that “AI is NOT the thing that is keeping the US economy out of recession,” makes similar points, and adds several other sharp ones. A lot of the equipment going into data centres is imported, he notes, so there will be offsetting negative contributions to GDP elsewhere in the national accounts. And recessions, Perkins argues, are not defined by GDP; they “are a very distinct process that takes place in the labour market. We have not seen that dynamic in 2025, and that has nothing whatsoever to do with AI capital spending. Big tech capex is NOT the reason the US labour has stayed afloat.”
Unhedged is quite sympathetic to these views — but also with another, more bearish point Perkins makes. If the returns on massive AI investments turn out to be low, that could cause a serious stock market correction. In other words, the mechanism by which an AI bust could cause a recession is not through suddenly lower growth (the national income statement, as it were) but through asset writedowns (the national balance sheet).
Perkins thinks we don’t need to worry about the AI bubble in asset values quite yet, however, because AI assets are not highly leveraged:
Leveraged bubbles (which typically involve property markets) are far deadlier than unleveraged bubbles (in stock markets, tulips, Bitcoin etc). The reason is simple. Falling asset prices will damage balance sheets, and if debt (which is fixed in nominal terms) has increased a lot, that can trigger a painful dynamic of asset fire sales and forced deleveraging . . . there is not (yet) a lot of leverage in the current AI capex bubble
We hope this is right, but we are not totally confident. It is true that the big tech companies are mostly financing their AI investments out of free cash flow. At the same time, we hear a lot about private debt investment in data centres, and we have deep respect for the financial system’s ability to conceal leverage in unexpected places, especially when it is in the grip of a “next big thing” narrative. “The AI bubble could become more dangerous if it continued to inflate,” Perkins warns. We think there might be quite a lot of air in it already.
How long can Nvidia stay ahead of Chinese competition?
The country has been a critical market for the AI chipmaker but the company is entangled in geopolitical tensions and is watching the rise of new rivals
--> Nvidia continues to dominate the AI chip market with unmatched hardware-software integration, driving record sales despite U.S.-China tensions. China’s accelerated push for domestic alternatives, led by Huawei, poses the most significant long-term risk. While geopolitical headwinds may erode market share in China, Nvidia’s diversification into robotics, autonomous driving, and advanced manufacturing provides new growth avenues. The stock remains a high-opportunity play, but with elevated geopolitical risk.
Full Article attached
JPMorgan takes on Hargreaves Lansdown in the UK with ‘DIY’ investment push
US group aims to be a ‘major player’ in Britain by encouraging retail investors to buy and sell shares directly
JPMorgan Chase is gearing up to launch its own “DIY” investment service in the UK, moving into a market led by Hargreaves Lansdown, amid a push to get more British savers to invest.
The US banking group plans to roll out a service next year that will allow investors to buy and sell shares, bonds, funds and other assets directly.
The move forms part of a broader push into Britain’s consumer investment market through the launch of JPMorgan Personal Investing in November.
The new service, which will target consumers under the JPMorgan brand for the first time in the UK, will offer financial planning tools and advice, as well as the “DIY” investment site next year.
The move comes as the UK government and regulators attempt to encourage savers to invest, boosting both retirement outcomes and the domestic stock market. Britons have an estimated £600bn of excess cash.
James McManus, chief investment officer of JPMorgan Personal Investing, told the Financial Times that the lender aimed to become a “major player” in the UK market.
The new venture will include the existing Nutmeg business, the wealth manager it acquired in 2021 offering low-cost funds run by managers and financial advisers, but ditch the Nutmeg brand.
The service will include new features from next month such as a “wealth planner”, providing customers with digital tools to help them invest, and tailored suggestions for how they could move closer to their financial goals.
It will also offer relationship managers for customers with more than £250,000 to invest to provide them with financial advice.
JPMorgan Personal Investing will be available through an app as well as Chase, the digital retail bank it launched in 2021 as part of its broader strategy to grow in the UK market. It will manage the £8.5bn of customer assets that sat with Nutmeg, having grown the wealth manager’s assets from £3.5bn since acquiring the business.
The DIY brokerage will mark a significant push into Britain’s retail investment industry, which is dominated by Hargreaves Lansdown and Interactive Investor.
Hargreaves Lansdown has more than £150bn of customers’ assets under administration and 28 per cent of the market, followed by Interactive Investor on about 13 per cent, according to consultancy firm Platforum.
The Financial Conduct Authority earlier this year announced sweeping changes to allow companies to provide individuals with generic investment support without having to meet all the costly restrictions involved in offering personalised financial advice. The move paves the way for more entrants into the retail investment market.
Nutmeg’s fee income in 2024 amounted to £39.3mn, while operating costs were £81.1mn. “For Nutmeg, confirmation of this year’s losses means collective losses of £230mn since year end of 2011,” said consultancy The Lang Cat.
James Anderson warns Nvidia’s $100bn OpenAI bet echoes dotcom bubble
Former Baillie Gifford tech investor says recent jump in AI valuations is ‘disconcerting’
One of Britain’s best-known tech investors has warned of a “disconcerting” rise in artificial intelligence valuations, saying Nvidia’s planned $100bn investment in OpenAI brought uncomfortable echoes of the dotcom bubble.
James Anderson’s early bets on Nvidia, Tesla and Amazon turned Edinburgh-based Baillie Gifford into an unlikely star of tech investing. He returned to full-time investing in 2023 with the backing of Italy’s billionaire Agnelli family, and now runs the $1.1bn Lingotto Innovation Strategy with New York-based Morgan Samet.
Until recently, Nvidia was its biggest holding but that position has been overtaken by the Chinese battery maker CATL. Lingotto trimmed its position in the Silicon Valley chipmaker earlier in the year, while CATL’s stock has surged after it listed in Hong Kong in May.
“Up until the last couple of months or so . . . what surprised me in one sense is that there wasn’t really much sign of a bubble” in AI, Anderson said. But that changed as OpenAI’s valuation surged from $157bn to $500bn in less than a year and its main rival Anthropic almost tripled in value to $170bn over the past six months.
“I think one needs to be honest that those sudden increases [in valuation] that people were willing to place on OpenAI, Anthropic and the like were disconcerting,” he told the Financial Times this week. “That scale of jump and the pace with which it happened did bother me.”
Anderson said he remained a “huge admirer” of Nvidia but said the chipmaker’s planned $100bn investment into OpenAI, which is also one of the biggest buyers of its AI systems, presented “more reason to be concerned there than before”.
Critics of the deal have pointed to its circular structure and uncertainties over how the huge data centres envisaged by OpenAI’s Sam Altman would be financed or powered.
“I have to say the words ‘vendor financing’ do not carry nice reflections to somebody of my age,” he said, referring to the dotcom-era practice of telecoms equipment makers borrowing heavily to help their telco customers to finance the build-out of internet fibre.
“It’s not quite like what many of the telecom suppliers were up to in 1999-2000 but it has certain rhymes to it,” he added. “I don’t think it makes me feel entirely comfortable from that point of view.”
Lingotto Investment Management, which was set up by the Agnelli family’s holding company Exor, will announce at Italian Tech Week on Wednesday that the firm has appointed tech experts to a new innovation council as it pushes further into early-stage tech investing.
Among the members will be Dylan Field, chief executive of design software group Figma, Kim Branson, head of AI at drugmaker GSK, and venture capitalist Mike Volpi.
Samet said Lingotto Innovation would now be investing in start-ups from seed stage until after they go public.
“With the AI innovation super cycle, as well as advances in the physical economy, you need to go earlier to be able to figure out what’s coming down the pipe,” she said, adding that she was particularly bullish on the opportunities in autonomous vehicles and AI in healthcare.
Anderson, Samet and Volpi are among those speaking at Italian Tech Week in Turin, where John Elkann, Exor’s chief executive and chair of Stellantis, will also be on stage with Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.
Anderson’s caution on Nvidia marks a stark turnaround from his comments last year, when he said “the most optimistic outcome . . . could lead to a market cap of double-digit trillions” for the chipmaker, which is now worth $4.4tn.
In what he characterised as “personal views”, Anderson also warned that the Trump administration’s efforts to decouple from China and cut investment in renewables could lead to disastrous consequences for its energy and automotive sectors.
“If I’m going to America in 10 years’ time, it’s going to be a bit like going to Cuba,” he said, “in that you’ll have one very advanced sector [tech] but you’ll also have an automobile industry that resembles 30 years ago and you’ll have an energy system that is completely unreliable and outclassed by what’s going on in the world”.
Europe will lose out to China in e-trucks without EU action, warns industry
Heavy vehicle makers have struggled with slow uptake of electric lorries due to lack of infrastructure investment
Europe will fall behind China in the electrification of trucks if Brussels does not take urgent action to support the transition, industry has warned.
Carmakers have become increasingly vocal in their calls for the European Commission to reconsider a ban on petrol engines starting in 2035.
But truck manufacturers have struggled with an even slower uptake of electric lorries due to the lack of investment in charging infrastructure and electricity grids despite EU regulations for a 45 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030, compared to 2019 levels.
That would be followed by a ban on almost all new diesel trucks by 2040.
Electric trucks accounted for 3.6 per cent of new EU registrations in the first half of this year, compared with 93.6 per cent for diesel trucks, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. A 38 per cent share will be needed to hit the target.
“That’s an industrial challenge unheard of. Not even China is moving at that speed,” said Christian Levin, chief executive of German truckmaker Traton, which is majority owned by Volkswagen.
Nevertheless, electric trucks’ penetration rate in China has jumped to about 24 per cent, from as low as 4 per cent two years earlier, with battery giant CATL predicting that half of all new trucks sold in the country will be electric-powered by 2028.
Levin said Chinese rivals would increasingly benefit from being able to scale up in their home market.
Agustín Delgado, chief technology officer of Spanish energy group Iberdrola said: “What could happen in the end is that trucks coming from China . . . will go down in cost faster than the trucks being built in Europe . . . because they are building much more than us.”
He added that Europe still had time to stay competitive in the electric truck space but warned it “needed to move forward” quickly to build out the entire ecosystem.
Having previously lumped carmakers and truckmakers together, the commission has established a “task force” to expedite the work on charging infrastructure and grid capacity to enable a faster rollout of electric trucks.
Truckmakers along with operators of infrastructure and grids as well as Amazon will meet with Brussels on Wednesday to call for urgent action.
For logistics companies and other truck users, the purchase of battery-run vehicles needs to make economic sense since most businesses operate on thin margins.
According to the International Energy Agency, battery-run trucks in Europe and the US are likely to reach parity on the total cost of ownership compared to diesel trucks for long-haul operations by 2030, whereas China has already achieved that.
Although Amazon signed one of the biggest deals in the industry, ordering 200 electric trucks from Daimler earlier this year, factors including vehicle range, charging, grid network and energy prices need to be aligned for further investment.
“We are confident that we can use the 200 trucks in an economically viable sense, but we are also seeing limitations to quickly go further,” said Andreas Marschner, Amazon’s vice-president who leads global infrastructure development.
Anja van Niersen, CEO of Milence — a joint venture between Daimler Truck, Traton and Volvo Group — to build out the public charging infrastructure for electric trucks, stressed that the industry already has the technology, the products as well as the willingness to expand the infrastructure.
But investments in charging and grids vary country by country while permits to build out the grids often take years.
Chris Heron, secretary-general of E-Mobility Europe added: “Every part of the industry is investing heavily. What’s missing is policy alignment.”