TheChek News Flow

Iberdrola spoke to rivals in recent months about potential combination amid challenging market conditions

The owner of Scottish Power has sounded out rivals about a possible deal with its UK retail business as the sector grapples with high consumer debts and the rapid rise of Octopus Energy.

Iberdrola, the Spanish energy group, had spoken to several companies in the sector about a combination with Scottish Power as it reacts to the challenges facing the retail market, according to people familiar with the matter. 

The talks, which have taken place since the start of the year, excluded Scottish Power’s networks and power generation businesses but no formal deal process was conducted and no partner had been found, they added.

Options reviewed included potential combinations that could have seen Iberdrola sharing control of the business, some of the people said. Scottish Power said it “does not comment on market speculation”.

Questions over the future of its UK household supply division, which has about 4.4mn gas and electricity customers, follow a major reshaping of the energy market over the past decade.

Challenger brand Octopus Energy this year overtook British Gas as the country’s largest household energy supplier, leaving others questioning whether and how to bulk up their operations to help them compete.

Senior people in the industry said any deal could attract scrutiny from Ofgem, the regulator, if it risked reducing the number of players in the market and increasing prices for households. 

Thirty smaller providers collapsed in late 2021 and early 2022 after being caught between surging wholesale energy prices and government-mandated price caps, which limited their ability to pass on costs to customers.

Shell exited the market in 2023, citing poor returns, just six years after entering it as part of its efforts to diversify from fossil fuels.

Consumer debts to energy companies have hit a record £4.4bn as bills remain hundreds of pounds higher than before the energy crisis, even though gas prices have eased. 

Iberdrola chair Ignacio Galan has been bullish on the UK, praising “predictability and stability” in the country and saying the UK and the US would receive almost two-thirds of €58bn in planned investment by Iberdrola over the next three years.

But the investment would be focused on electricity networks and the retail unit was “irrelevant” in terms of what it would receive, Galan told the Financial Times last month.

Scottish Power’s UK retail unit produced net profits of £182mn in 2024 on revenue of £4.7bn, according to accounts published this month. 

Andrew Ward, chief executive of Scottish Power’s UK retail business, told MPs on Wednesday: “If you look at the customer business . . . I lost money three out of the [past] five years. Over the five years, I have made £50mn, which is less than £10 per customer. It is not a high profit part of the energy system.”

One odd thing about AI equipment is that it’s very expensive to buy and very cheap to rent.

Want an Nvidia B200 GPU accelerator? Buying one on its release in late 2024 would’ve probably cost around $500,000, which is before all the costs associated with plugging it in and switching it on. Yet by early 2025, the same hardware could be rented for around $3.20 an hour. By last month, the B200’s floor price had fallen to $2.80 per hour.

Nvidia upgrades its chip architecture every other year, so there’s an opportunity for the best-funded data centre operators to lock in customers with knockdown prices on anything that’s not cutting edge. From the outside, the steady decline in GPU rental rates resembles the kind of predatory price war the tech industry relies upon: burn money until all your competitors are dead.

The evidence, however, is more complicated. How complicated? Well . . . 

The above chart uses price data collected by RBC Capital Markets. Sure enough, it shows average GPU pricing has been weak. For Nvidia’s H200 and H100 chips, per-hour rates down 29 per cent and 22 per cent respectively in the year to date.

What might be less obvious is that among the hyperscalers — Amazon’s AWS, Microsoft’s Azure, Google and Oracle — prices have hardly budged. What results is an ever-widening gap between rates charged by the big-four and a growing number of smaller rivals.

Here’s the same RBC data organised to show relative pricing across all GPUs, which shows how much it’s new entrants driving average rates lower. Meanwhile, for a hyperscaler customers, this month’s bill per GPU will almost always be the same as last month’s bill:

Price wars in the real world often involve small companies undercutting big ones, but it’s an upside-down version of how tech usually works. Why? We don’t know, but here’s a guess.

GPU-as-service customers have historically been AI start-ups and research institutions wanting to train new models, meaning they need lots of computing power for a relatively short period. They may already be customers of the hyperscalers, so staying with the same host may have continuity, efficiency and security benefits that justify the premium.

The second type of customer is the regular corporate that wants a website chatbots, a summarisation tools or similar AI widgets. Only very big and/or paranoid organisations want to manage the required infrastructure, so everyone else might in the past have used a GPU in the cloud. Now, however, they’re much more likely to build chatbots etc using a ready-made LLM like OpenAI or Anthropic and pay by the token rather than by the hour.

Who’s left? Mostly it’s the dregs. Industrial slop farms. Impoverished academics. Wannabe quant hedge funds. Virtual waifu developers. Hobbyists who’d rather not use anything too off-the-shelf because they want to generate grubby videos or do crimes. Costs have been sunk in pursuit of any customer and these are all that’s left.

Can a GPU-as-a-service company break even on that type of customer? Here’s a very simplified toy model. One entry-level Nvidia A100 cost $199,000 on its release in 2020. Based on a chip’s approximately five-year useful life and 100 per cent uptime, it would need to be generating about $4 an hour to break even.

The average price for an A100 in 2020 was $2.40 an hour. That’s now fallen to about $1.65 per hour — but the average is being skewed by hyperscalers continuing to charge more than $4 when their competitors go as low as $0.40. It’s a toy model that ignores all sorts of important stuff (loss-leader pricing, bundling, cross-selling, loyalty penalties, resale of spare capacity) but it still might offer a reasonable measure by which to judge whose pricing is rational.

Based on all of the above, here are five possible conclusions:

1 A lot of pandemic-era Nvidia GPUs will be heading towards Cash Converters having never washed their face.

2 The customers attracted by low AI compute costs have yet to show much ability, willingness or inclination to pay more.

3 The hyperscalers don’t believe these customers are worth competing for, so have chosen to wait for the discount end of the market to die of insolvency.

4 The inevitable data-centre shakeout will kill lots of AI start-ups that can’t afford to pay what compute actually costs.

5 We might be overestimating the size of the GPU market if the middle-ground — meaning regular companies that want OpenAI and Anthropic to make their chatbots, summarisation tools and similar AI widgets — turns out to be worth less than $3tn.

So enjoy your virtual waifu while you can. She’s not long for this world.

Ce programme de drones était mené en coopération avec l’Allemagne, l’Espagne et l’Italie.

En pleine période d’incertitude du programme SCAF (Système de combat aérien du futur), la France a également un souci avec un autre programme. Face à ses retards, à ses surcoûts et à son manque de performance, elle a en effet décidé de se retirer du programme européen Eurodrone dont Airbus assure la maîtrise d’œuvre appuyé par l’italien Leonardo et le français Dassault Aviation, même si la nouvelle ministre des armées ne leur a pas encore notifié officiellement la décision. Les gens d’Airbus sont fébriles sur ce programme et en particulier depuis le mois de septembre. Ce partenariat mené en coopération avec l’Allemagne, l’Espagne et l’Italie est un projet lancé en 2015 pour répondre aux besoins opérationnels en drones de surveillance et de reconnaissance. Las, il avait les ailes apparemment trop grandes pour l’industriel qui a vu son calendrier exploser. Il a pris quatre ans de retard par rapport à l’agenda initial. Et l’entrée en service n’est plus attendue au mieux avant 2030.

Malgré son retrait d’Eurodrone, la France se réserve toutefois la possibilité de procéder à des achats de systèmes issus de ce programme. Elle a toutefois décidé de plutôt consolider sa filière drones Reaper, pourtant américaine, et de donner sa chance à des PME et ETI engagées dans un programme de drones rustiques alternatifs.

Un choix qui peut sembler paradoxal puisque depuis quelques années, la France avait décidé de ne plus recourir à des matériels américains. Non seulement ils coûtent cher à acquérir et à entretenir, mais de surcroît ils génèrent une emprise technico-opérationnelle américaine sur les forces armées françaises. C’est pour cette question de souveraineté que la France a retiré du service ses avions radar E-3F Awacs et ses cargos C-130H comme l’a révélé l’Informé.

L’échec d’Eurodrone est loin d’être le premier sur la demi-douzaine de programmes de drones auxquels la France participe. Les Systèmes de drones tactiques légers (SDTL) ont quasiment tous connu un ou plusieurs soucis lors de leurs premiers vols. Tandis que Safran avec le Système de drone tactique (SDT), Thales avec le Maritime Mine Counter Measures (MMCM) et le Système de mini-drone de renseignement (MDR) sont allés de Charybde en Scylla. Capa-X, Flexrotor et VSR700 semblent toutefois offrir de meilleurs espoirs à Airbus. Ce que la France a toutefois apporté au programme Eurodrone pourra être récupéré sur les programmes de drones rustiques alternatifs.

Le cabinet de la ministre des armées n’avait pas répondu à nos questions avant notre publication.

D’Angelo was a singular singer who reached the heights of soul, funk and R&B

The multi-instrumentalist, who has died at 51, wrote, sang and produced songs of rare musicality and a hip-hop sensibility

In a nod to the divine messengers of his Pentecostal upbringing and the genius of Michelangelo, Michael Eugene Archer turned himself into D’Angelo in the 1990s. He was “the last pure African American artist left”, according to Questlove of hip-hop group The Roots, a close collaborator, speaking in 2014. Idealism became corrupted into perfectionism, a debilitating temptation, like others to which he was prone. But he brought out the best of himself in the three studio albums that he leaves behind following his death from cancer aged 51.

D’Angelo’s recordings were sporadic but they occupy the highest reaches of soul, funk and R&B music. His 1995 debut Brown Sugar kick-started the so-called “neo soul” movement, a back-to-the-source act of renewal in the long fade-out of the analogue era. His crowning achievement was Voodoo in 2000, which struck the sweet chord of artistic acclaim and platinum sales. Black Messiah emerged 14 long years later amid reports of addiction problems and creative block. It showed his powers were undimmed, transposing previous eras of Black American music and civil rights struggle to the 2010s.

Marvin Gaye turned up recurrently in his dreams. He idolised James Brown and claimed Voodoo was made to attract Prince’s attention for a link-up that, alas, never took place. Black Messiah’s messaging and groove evoked Sly and the Family Stone’s There’s a Riot Goin’ On. To D’Angelo, these forebears were “Yodas”, wise teachers from whom he learnt his craft. He established himself as their successor, unlike the inferior mimicry of the retro acts whose numbers proliferated around him.

Like Prince, he was a multi-instrumentalist who wrote, sang and produced his songs. Unlike his hero, this prodigiousness contributed to the vice of perfectionism. But the idealist in D’Angelo understood that music should be more than the sum of its painstakingly applied parts. 

At a time when sounds were getting cleaner and more compressed, he brought a grainy sensibility to his recordings. His songs have a jazzy sense of spontaneity. They are able to embrace imperfection, as with the woozy rhythms running through Voodoo. His vocals went from high-tenor charm on Brown Sugar’s “Me and Those Dreamin’ Eyes of Mine” to the smoky patter of Voodoo’s “Devil’s Pie”. He combined a soul singer’s musicality with the verbal culture of hip-hop. “All rap is street soul,” he reckoned.

At his peak, D’Angelo held various opposing forces in equilibrium. He was an auteur who was open to working closely with others, such as J Dilla, the innovative rap beatmaker who shaped Voodoo’s wayward groove. He co-founded collective the Soulquarians and shared a significant professional and romantic relationship with singer Angie Stone.

He chafed at the sex symbol status that he gained after a smouldering shirtless appearance in the video for “Untitled (How Does It Feel)” in 2000. But there was a degree of idealism here too. His physique — which he rued losing after slipping into alcoholism in later life — was an MTV version of the perfect masculinity of a Michelangelo statue. Sex isn’t merely sex in his songs. “You need the comfort of my loving to bring out the best in you,” he sings in Black Messiah’s “Ain’t That Easy”, before turning the line around: “I need the comfort of your loving to bring out the best in me.”

Nommé en septembre, l’ancien patron de Renault imprime déjà sa marque au sein du groupe de luxe. Et inquiète ses troupes.

Arrivé chez Kering mi-septembre, l’ex-directeur général de Renault Luca de Meo fait déjà trembler ses équipes. Elles observent d’un œil inquiet ce qui se passe du côté de la direction des ressources humaines, un des premiers chantiers du patron. Début septembre, les habitués du monde feutré du luxe ont eu la surprise de voir débarquer un spécialiste du recrutement d’ingénieurs dans un milieu davantage habitué aux paillettes et aux parfums. Il s’agit de Thomas Cuntz. Cet ancien de Renault a été nommé vice-président responsable du développement des talents et de l’engagement, quelques jours avant l’arrivée officielle de Luca de Meo, qui l’a évidemment choisi.

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Cuntz est un pur produit Renault, où il a passé 23 ans et est devenu très proche de Luca de Meo. Au sein du constructeur, il était surnommé « Iznogoud » par beaucoup. Si la nomination a suscité l’étonnement chez son ancien employeur, elle est logiquement source de stress chez Kering. Selon nos informations, Thomas Cuntz n’est pas parti de son plein gré de Renault. Il en a été remercié. Et ce à l’été 2024. Ce qu’il a omis de préciser sur son profil LinkedIn selon lequel il serait passé directement de la marque au losange à Kering.

Les interrogations fusent sur les motifs de cette éviction. Certes, chez Renault la valse des dirigeants était incessante, mais plutôt à la demande de Luca de Meo. Ce qui n’est pas le cas ici, puisque ce dernier vient de le rappeler à ses côtés.  « Luca de Meo est quelqu’un d’affable et d’un commerce très agréable, mais il a besoin de managers musclés autour de lui pour faire exécuter ses ordres », assure un de ses ex-collègues de Renault.

Chez Kering, l’ambiance aux RH est donc en train de changer de façon radicale. D’autant que le nouveau venu répète à l’envi que la DRH du groupe ne va plus rester longtemps. Membre du comité exécutif et directrice des ressources humaines depuis neuf ans, Béatrice Lazat serait sur la sellette et sous pression. Et, comme chez Renault où Luca de Meo n’a eu de cesse de nommer des Italiens, de Flavio Briatore en F1 à Antonino Labate chez Alpine en passant par Gianluca De Ficchy chez Mobilize, un recrutement transalpin pourrait se profiler. Le DRH de Gucci, Francesco Falai, sera-t-il promu ? Il aurait en tout cas l’oreille du patron sur les sujets RH du groupe.

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Au-delà de la valse des noms, le nouveau dirigeant de Kering a aussi rapidement montré qu’il entendait changer de méthode. Début septembre, lors d’un meeting réunissant quelque 200 dirigeants de la société, il a demandé deux choses à ses troupes. D’une part, de ne pas lui envoyer de mails, parce qu’il ne les lit pas, et de fonctionner plutôt avec WhatsApp. D’autre part, il leur a aussi suggéré d’arrêter de dire du mal des uns et des autres. Et, comme chez Renault, où il avait dès son premier jour épargné à chaque membre de l’équipe dirigeante de se présenter - assurant qu’il connaissait tout d’eux -, le nouveau leader de Kering a vite fait comprendre qu’il n’était pas là pour écouter, mais pour trancher. Ce qu’il a immédiatement fait en imposant Francesca Bellettini, ex-directrice générale adjointe de Kering, à la tête de Gucci.

Luca de Meo est aujourd’hui un homme craint.  Même si sa stratégie qu’il a déroulée dans une feuille de route, comme l’a précisé La Lettre, n’est pas encore des plus limpides. Une certitude toutefois : il semble suivre à la lettre les recommandations de François-Henri Pinault, le président du groupe qui avait pourtant promis de prendre du champ après la nomination d’un nouveau directeur général. Contactés, Thomas Cuntz et Béatrice Lazat n’ont pas répondu à l’Informé.

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