CrunchBase : The Week’s 10 Biggest Funding Rounds: OpenAI Takes The Spotlight Wi

The Week’s 10 Biggest Funding Rounds: OpenAI Takes The Spotlight With Record-Setting $110B Round

It was going to be a fairly business as usual top 10 list this week until OpenAI decided to disrupt our Friday with news that it raised $110 billion in new funding. Yes, $110 billion. That is so much money, and so record-setting as a private company funding round, that it makes all those other $100 million and $200 million rounds we usually write about look very paltry by comparison.

That said, we did nonetheless see a number of these kinds of rounds, in sectors including semiconductors, AI, healthcare and biotech.

1. OpenAI, $110B, artificial intelligence: Generative AI giant OpenAI announced that it has raised $110 billion in new investment at a valuation of $730 billion pre-money, or $840 billion post-money. The deal includes $50 billion from Amazon, $30 billion from SoftBank, and $30 billion from Nvidia. San Francisco-based OpenAI says more investors are expected to join as the round progresses.

2. (tied) MatX, $500M, semiconductors: MatX, a startup that designs custom chips and hardware architectures to support large language models, secured $500 million in Series B funding as it prepares to scale manufacturing. Jane Street Capital and Situational Awareness led the financing for the Mountain View, California-based company.

2. (tied) Vero Networks, $500M, broadband: Boulder, Colorado-based Vero Networks, a fiber infrastructure and broadband internet provider, picked up $500 million in a growth funding round backed by Braemont Capital, Hamilton Lane and Delta-v Capital.

4. Shine Technologies, $240M, fusion: Janesville, Wisconsin-based Shine Technologies, a developer of fusion technologies with applications in the medicine and energy sectors, raised $240 million in equity funding led by NantWorks.

5. Revel, $150M, hardware testing tools: Revel, developer of a software platform for hardware test and control, closed on $150 million in Series B funding. Index Ventures led the financing for the Los Angeles-based company, which plans to expand its offerings across aerospace, defense, robotics and industrial sectors.

6. Honest Health, $140M, healthcare: Nashville, Tennessee-based Honest Health, a provider of tech-enabled tools for primary care providers, secured $140 million in a new financing led by NewSpring.

7. Slate Medicines, $130M, biotech: Slate Medicines, a startup working on therapeutics for headache disorders, announced its launch alongside $130 million in Series A financing. RA Capital Management, Forbion Capital Partners and Foresite Capital led the investment for the Raleigh, North Carolina-based company.

8. Ubicquia, $106M, smart infrastructure: Fort Lauderdale, Florida-based Ubicquia, provider of an analytics platform for smart lighting, grid monitoring and public safety applications, raised $106 million in Series D funding. 67 Capital and Marunouchi Innovation Partners led the financing for the 12-year-old company.

9. (tied) Basis, $100M, AI-enabled accounting: Basis, an AI agent platform for accountants, closed on $100 million in Series B funding at a $1.15 billion valuation. Accel led the round for the New York-based startup, along with Google Ventures, Lloyd Blankfein and Khosla Ventures.

9. (tied) Aalyria, $100M, satellite and network communication: Google spinout Aalyria, a developer of software that configures communications satellites to meet demand, secured $100 million in Series B funding. Battery Ventures and J2 Ventures led the financing for the Livermore, California-based company.

9. (tied) Viture, $100M, smart glasses: Viture, a San Francisco-based maker of extended reality (XR) smart glasses and accessories, says it raised $100 million in a financing led by Legend Capital.

>>> Pavel Durov & Telegram — Key Takeaways from FT Article sent earlier

Pavel Durov & Telegram — Key Takeaways
Durov, the 41-year-old sole owner of Telegram (1B+ users), was detained in France in August 2024 over the platform's failure to moderate criminal activity. He's under formal investigation on a dozen charges and barred from leaving France, though the travel ban was later relaxed. A trial isn't expected before year-end.

The bigger picture: His case has become a flashpoint for CEO accountability in Europe. France raided X's Paris offices this month, Spain is introducing personal liability laws for tech execs, and Russia has simultaneously opened its own criminal case against Durov for "aiding terrorism" — while pushing users toward a state-controlled messenger.

Business model concerns: Telegram runs with ~60 employees and is funded through $3B+ in corporate bonds. Nearly a third of its H1 2025 revenue (~$300M) came from Toncoin-related deals — a crypto deeply intertwined with the platform. Despite ~$400M operating profit in H1 2025, net losses were $222M due to Toncoin writedowns (the token is down ~80% from peak). Critics call the crypto-Telegram interdependence "a house of cards." A planned xAI/Grok integration ($300M deal) hasn't materialized.

Geopolitical tension: Durov denies ties to Moscow, but reports surfaced of 50+ trips to Russia between 2014–2021. He was in Baku overlapping with a Putin state visit just before his arrest. He's pivoted toward US libertarian audiences (Tucker Carlson, Lex Fridman) and cultivated relationships with Musk and French billionaire Xavier Niel.

Bottom line: Durov is squeezed from all sides — French prosecutors, Russian authorities, bondholders wanting an IPO, and critics questioning both Telegram's encryption claims and its crypto-dependent financials. His stance remains defiant: "I would rather die than become anyone's asset."

FT : Telegram, Pavel Durov and the shaky future for tech’s libertarian princelin

Telegram, Pavel Durov and the shaky future for tech’s libertarian princelings
The messaging app’s founder has become a poster boy for the backlash in Europe over CEO accountability — and a target for Russia

Pavel Durov, the billionaire boss of messaging app Telegram, steps off his plane in France and is swarmed by a Swat team of police officers. He pulls off his shirt to reveal a torso so sculpted that it momentarily confuses his opponents before they come to their senses, cuff him and march him off to a cell. “Privacy is over!” a faceless goon shouts, zapping him with an electric current. Durov awakes to find a chip implanted in his head and the task of breaking out of a high-security prison before him.

This is the plot of Total Glitch, a game hosted on Telegram that dramatises a fictitious French prison break by a hero who recovers from bouts of intense combat with ice baths and yoga. Durov, a 41-year-old wellness evangelist who in real life recovers from bouts of intense exercise with ice baths and yoga, says he had no role in the game’s development, but he has promoted it on his channel. “Only on Telegram could independent developers pull this off . . . and the results are wild,” he wrote last October in a Telegram post viewed more than five million times.

The scenario the game imagines is not entirely far-fetched. In August 2024, Durov, who was born in Russia but has French and United Arab Emirates citizenship, was detained by French police within minutes of stepping off a private jet at Paris-Le Bourget Airport. He was held over alleged failures to moderate criminal activity on Telegram, from drug trafficking to terrorism and the dissemination of child sexual abuse material. After four days in custody, he was released and placed under formal investigation on a dozen preliminary charges and barred from leaving France. A trial, which is unlikely to come before the end of the year, could determine whether Durov will be convicted and face fines, or even a long prison sentence.

One of the biggest messaging platforms in the world, with more than a billion users, Telegram is marketed as a safe haven for communication, as well as a one-stop shop for broadcasting, file sharing, shopping, gaming and more. But its claims to be ideologically and technologically unassailable from the prying eyes of authorities, combined with a hands-off approach to moderation, have made it the default channel for anyone operating at the margins of legality, according to critics. It’s where you might find gruesome videos of explosions and beheadings alongside semi-official communications from militaries and intelligence agencies.

The French charges against Durov have serious implications for every other social media platform and the liability of their top executives. “Arresting a CEO of a major platform over the actions of its users was not only unprecedented — it was legally and logically absurd,” Durov wrote in a Telegram post, a year after his brush with police.

Since then, European lawmakers have shown ever more interest in holding tech CEOs accountable for alleged abuses on their platforms. This month, French and European investigators raided the offices of Elon Musk’s X in Paris, as part of a wide-ranging investigation into its algorithms as well as the spread of AI-generated sexual abuse material. Spain is introducing laws to ban under-16s from social media and hold executives personally liable for hateful content. Last week, Russia stepped up its disruption of Telegram, throttling some features as part of an effort to force users on to a state-backed “national messenger” built for surveillance, and accusing Durov of pursuing his own self-interest while enabling terrorism and crimes against children.

For the libertarian tech titans of the US, and their political allies, Durov has become a martyr to European censorship. In the 18 months since he was released from custody, he has displayed increasing disdain for French authorities, accusing them of pressuring him to silence certain European conservative voices on Telegram and suggesting his detention was politically motivated. (French officials point to a strict separation between the judicial and political systems. The prosecutor’s office leading the investigation declined to comment for this story.) After the recent raid on Musk’s Paris office, Durov posted that France was “the only country in the world that is criminally persecuting all social networks that give people some degree of freedom… Don’t be mistaken: this is not a free country.” 

To some observers, the investigation looks like a responsible attempt to force a secretive leader to shed some light on the allegiances and inner workings of his multibillion-dollar empire. Unlike the bosses of rival platforms such as Meta or xAI, Durov wholly owns Telegram, funding it through a personal fortune estimated at $17bn, which comes from his ownership stake, as well as personal bitcoin investments. And although he has frequently dangled the idea of an initial public offering, it remains unclear if he is ready to loosen his grip. In early 2024, in an interview with the FT, he claimed to have rebuffed offers of equity investments that valued the company at more than $30bn. According to analysis of documents obtained by the FT, interviews with former insiders and publicly available information, he has tied Telegram’s revenue prospects in part to a niche cryptocurrency whose underlying technology was originally developed by his team, rather than relying on mainstream advertisers who might demand more disclosure.

As the months pass, the circle of people wanting answers from Durov is growing. Corporate bondholders, who he has tapped for more than $3bn, including a $1.7bn offering last May, are asking whether the company will ever make good on the plan to float on public markets, now further delayed by the investigation. Some had been attracted by an option to buy shares in any future flotation at a discount of as much as 20 per cent. One bondholder raised concerns that the company’s IPO promises represent an “investment trap”.

Durov is now caught between two fires. In the west, the scant information around Telegram and its owner has done little to quell speculation that Durov still has ties to Moscow, despite his repeated denials. In Russia, a criminal case was opened this week against him for “aiding terrorism” and allowing Telegram to become a tool of western intelligence. In response, Durov claimed that Russian authorities were “fabricating new pretexts to restrict Russia’s access to Telegram as they seek to suppress the right to privacy and free speech”. Amid the conflicting narratives, Durov’s critics argue, it is hard to believe in anything other than his singular ruthlessness. 

“Durov lives in a world of spin where he will decide on a story then grow a back-story and it will become the truth,” said Axel Neff, a Telegram co-founder who is now estranged from Durov. “He views himself as a man of the people. But how does one person become the sole shareholder of a company probably worth around $50bn? You’ve got to step on some people. To the victor, go the spoils.”

The “Mark Zuckerberg of Russia”, as Durov became known in his twenties after founding the country’s answer to Facebook, VKontakte, cast himself as an impish, anti-establishment folk hero from the start. Born in St Petersburg to a Ukrainian mother and Russian father who was a prominent professor of philology, Durov always intended to build “a one-man show and to do it alone, and that hasn’t changed”, said Nikolay Kononov, author of a 2025 book about Durov and Telegram, The Populist. “He’s a one-man state . . . the king of the outlaws.”

Durov seemed unafraid to publicly troll authorities, even while the Kremlin tightened its grip on the internet sector during the early 2000s. In 2011, in response to demands from Moscow that he shut down the accounts of Russian opposition leaders on VK, as the platform became known, Durov posted a picture of a “resistance dog” in a hoodie with its tongue out. When Russian police raided VK’s offices in 2013 over an alleged hit-and-run incident with a policeman, Durov posted, “When you run over a policeman, it is important to drive back and forth — so that all the pulp comes out.” Telegram has denied he had any involvement in the hit-and-run and called the accusation an attempt to discredit Durov during a period of corporate upheaval at VK.

It was in 2012, Durov has said, that he and his older brother, Nikolai, a maths prodigy, started developing Telegram as a “private tool” for the pair to communicate securely. In his telling, Durov left Russia in early 2014 after more pressure from Moscow to share Ukrainian user data with the government, selling his VK stake under duress to oligarchs. He eventually settled in Dubai.

Telegram ‘is more like a religion than a company to’ Durov

Shortly after his exit, Durov was sued by United Capital Partners, a Russian investment group that had bought a 48 per cent stake in VK. It argued he had “embezzled corporate funds, breached his fiduciary duties to shareholders and diverted corporate opportunities to himself” by setting up Telegram using VK resources. Durov was “attempting to present himself as a political dissident in order to divert attention from his serious legal challenges,” UCP said. Durov countersued in a US court, alleging UCP was trying to coerce and defraud him out of his ownership of Telegram. As part of a 2014 settlement, all parties agreed to drop their claims. But Durov got his prize: the reins of Telegram.

These days, there is no question of who is in control at Telegram. To work there is to join the cult of Pavel. The boss sports a custom-designed, all-black ensemble, inspired by Keanu Reeves’ character in The Matrix. He enjoys a lifestyle of ascetic ritual: at least 200 push-ups and 100 sit-ups each morning. No alcohol, tobacco or coffee.

Where Silicon Valley rivals such as Meta and X have thousands of staffers, Durov has around 60 full-time underlings. The identities of his staff are shrouded in secrecy. On its own LinkedIn page, the company states: “Telegram has a No LinkedIn policy. Accounts claiming to be past or present employees never worked at Telegram.” But, according to people familiar with the matter, many are young, brilliant software engineers plucked from relative obscurity by Durov and his brother from coding championships. These hires are paid lavishly. They spend summers working away from Dubai to escape the heat, once at a castle in Umbria.

“There is practically zero churn. They share the same values and believe in the mission of the company,” Durov told the FT, in the 2024 interview several months before his detainment in France. He claimed to be “deeply” involved in all Telegram’s processes. “It’s more like a religion than a company to him,” said one Dubai associate. When Durov missed the twice-weekly company meeting during his detention, it was one of only two times he had ever done so in 12 years, according to people familiar with the matter.

Dated mid-2025, previously unreported documents revealing Telegram’s leadership team support the claim that Durov’s top lieutenants have stuck around. Igor Diakonov, chief infrastructure officer and head of infrastructure management, joined in 2013. So did Mike Ravdonikas, who, as chief operations officer, runs Telegram’s external comms, regulatory affairs and moderation, as well as maintaining a website showcasing his own poetry. Durov’s three top engineering leaders also joined in 2013, all from VK. No executive has left since 2014, according to one person familiar with the matter.

While Durov is the public face of Telegram, the intellectual power is his brother Nikolai, according to multiple people who know the brothers. Those who know the chief scientist describe him as a mathematical savant: shy, dishevelled, often lost in his thoughts. As a student, he won prestigious maths competitions, before twice winning the International Collegiate Programming Contest, the Olympic Games of programming. (Neither French prosecutors nor Telegram would comment on a Politico report that there is a warrant out for Nikolai.)

“They are like two hemispheres of one brain,” said Kononov. “Nikolai is about tech inventions, and Pavel is about translating these into products, marketing and fulfilling his political dreams.” Neff agreed: “When you have someone like [Nikolai] in your back pocket, you can basically do anything in the tech world. Pavel generates the demand and the spotlight.”

With Nikolai at his side, Durov has made a roaring success out of Telegram. Surpassing one billion monthly users in March 2025, the platform has become a key communications channel for officials and the military, particularly in Russia, Ukraine and other eastern European countries, and a democratic lifeline during moments of civil unrest, from Hong Kong to Iran and Belarus.

Insiders say the app’s superpower has been rolling out product updates at breakneck speed, expanding beyond private messaging into a one-stop shop with public groups, broadcast channels, gaming, shopping and payments services. “What Durov is good at is lateral arbitrage — taking something that works in one market and launching it into a new market and improving on that,” said Neff.

In 2021, cyber security experts argued that despite Telegram’s promises of absolute privacy in its private messages (not even the company is supposed to be able to access them), its end-to-end encryption displayed cryptographic weaknesses. As the app broadened its services to include group-chat capabilities and broadcast channels, critics noted that users might mistakenly assume these features were also end-to-end encrypted by default, and that Telegram had failed to correct the record.

Last week, a Russian minister claimed that foreign intelligence services were able to see Telegram messages sent by Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. “Telegram’s not a private messenger,” Signal founder Moxie Marlinspike said on a podcast in February. “It’s the opposite.”

Telegram told the FT that its employees “cannot access” any user messages. Even those that are not fully end-to-end encrypted and instead stored in the cloud are protected because its decryption keys are split into parts and never kept in the same place as the data they protect, it has said. “No breaches of Telegram’s encryption have ever been found,” it said. “The Russian government’s allegation that our encryption has been compromised is a deliberate fabrication intended to justify outlawing Telegram and forcing citizens on to a state-controlled messaging platform engineered for mass surveillance and censorship.”

In 2018, Nikolai Durov developed Gram, Telegram’s own cryptocurrency and underlying blockchain, while Pavel raised $1.7bn in private sales of rights to Gram ahead of its launch. But the following year, the US Securities and Exchange Commission sued Telegram and blocked it from distributing the tokens, alleging Gram was an unregistered security. Telegram settled the case, paying an $18.5mn fine and agreeing to return $1.2bn to investors, including Silicon Valley venture capital firms such as Benchmark and Kleiner Perkins.

Gram’s underlying code was revived by the open-source community, with a cryptocurrency called Ton emerging as the most popular token. Durov still has close affiliations with the Ton community. Andrew Rogozov, a former VK executive and a Durov associate, was a founding member of The Ton Foundation, an open-source group driving Toncoin’s development. He now runs The Open Platform, a start-up that builds Toncoin tools for Telegram. Meanwhile, Durov has publicly championed the coin and integrated numerous Ton features into Telegram. Developers are encouraged to build games and experiences into the app that use the currency; advertising on Telegram is paid for using Toncoin; a Toncoin wallet has been built into the app for peer-to-peer and ecommerce payments; creators are able to sell and earn in the currency.

In 2025, Toncoin began to gain mainstream popularity. In March, VC firms invested more than $400mn in the currency, according to Durov, who cited top investor groups Sequoia Capital, Benchmark, Ribbit, Draper and Vy. Shaun Maguire, a Sequoia partner known for his pro-Trump stance, said in a statement that the open-source team working on Ton was “best in the world at the intersection of consumer product thinking and crypto infrastructure”. He added: “When you combine this with the global distribution of Telegram, we’re very excited to see where they go.” The coin has now been listed on major cryptocurrency exchanges such as Kraken, Gemini and Coinbase, as Durov makes inroads in Silicon Valley.

The Toncoin ecosystem has propped up what would otherwise be modest revenues and growth for Telegram, according to financial filings obtained by the FT. In theory, as demand for the crypto rises due to its integration on the platform, so does the price of Toncoin, which Telegram holds in plentiful supply. In the first half of 2025, nearly one-third of Telegram’s revenue, or $300mn, came from Toncoin-related deals, according to documents and people familiar with the matter. Premium subscription nearly doubled to $223mn sales in the first half of 2025, as the company added news features for power users, while advertising revenue ticked up only 5 per cent to $125mn over the period.

On a call with bondholders late last year, a transcript of which was seen by the FT, Telegram’s chief investment officer John Hyman said “the bulk” of crypto revenues were through a long-term contract with the Ton Foundation that would continue until 2029. “We see huge potential for Ton, for the position we still have in Ton,” said Hyman, a former Morgan Stanley banker who single-handedly oversees Telegram’s debt financing.

Yet the cryptomarket is notoriously volatile, and Toncoin’s price has been weighed down by wider market bearishness. Despite an operating profit of nearly $400mn in the first half of 2025, Telegram’s net losses were $222mn, compared with a $334mn net profit in the same period of 2024. One person familiar with the matter said this was because the company had to write down the value of its holdings of Toncoin, the price of which is down by about 80 per cent since its peak at $7.88 in July 2024.

“There’s very little organic demand [for Toncoin] outside of Telegram’s own internal mechanisms,” said Elies Campo, who helped work on Telegram’s growth, partnerships and business development between 2015 and 2020. “The circularity is the core problem . . . If either side weakens, the other follows.”

Last summer, Nasdaq-listed Verb Technologies, a marketing video software group, agreed to a $558mn investment from a vehicle run by Manuel Stotz, then president of the Ton Foundation. In return, Verb switched to become a digital assets treasury company holding Toncoin. Verb, since renamed Ton Strategy Co, has invested more than $700mn in the cryptocurrency. Announcing the deal, Stotz, who is now Ton Strategy’s executive chairman, described Durov as the “GOAT (“Greatest of All Time”) — in the domain of social media & product”, and posted a topless photo of the founder: “His proof-of-work [is], well, quite visible😁”

Telegram told the FT that its “long-term business model is not dependent on cryptocurrencies”, adding that its “main focus” is selling premium subscriptions, as well as advertising. The company called Campo’s analysis: “uneducated, unreliable and just plain wrong”.

Some bondholders remain bullish about Telegram’s business prospects. One told the FT that the platform had opportunities for swift revenue growth given it was highly undermonetised. Another added, “What makes these guys different is they are better in connecting the whole ecosystem to the messaging platform, and they seem more capable than other platforms in finding ways to monetise the ecosystem.”

Campo was not convinced: “Strip out the Ton sales and crypto deals and you have roughly $350mn in real product revenue” in the first half of 2025, he said. “It’s a house of cards . . . Pavel has navigated impossible situations before. The margin for error is just extremely thin.”

It was mid-May 2025, at the Cannes Film Festival, and Durov was attending a charity auction in the resplendent Hotel du Cap-Eden-Roc with his girlfriend, the glamorous crypto influencer and aspiring actress Yulia Vavilova. As the auctioneer reeled off the lots, Durov casually bid $400,000 to buy her a role in an upcoming Spike Lee movie. The auctioneer slammed down a gavel and the ballroom erupted into cheers of delight. Durov did not so much as flinch.

It was more than an extravagant romantic gesture. The theatrics served as a reminder to anyone watching — French authorities included — that nine months after his detainment Durov would not be cowed. Since the previous summer, he had been living in luxury lockdown in one of Paris’s palace hotels. Vavilova had posted pictures of five-star spas and horse riding near the palace of Versailles. That year “felt like a survival race straight out of Squid Game,” she wrote on Telegram, “while other moments were more like an enchanting Emily in Paris story.” The travel ban was relaxed in July 2025.

A Telegram bondholder put it differently. “He’s so rich that he feels he owns the world. In some ways, it’s true . . . Poor Pavel, he’s forced to live in some Parisian palace. I’m sure he’s enjoying it and living like Putin does in Russia.”

Durov has appeared “increasingly paranoid” since his detainment and “seems to mostly be talking to a very narrow circle of people”, said Aleksandra Urman, a researcher at the University of Zurich who has studied extremism on Telegram. She noted he had also strategically embraced American libertarians, granting video interviews to conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, and meeting in Paris with podcaster Lex Fridman. “He’s trying to pivot to a certain part of his western audience. In the west, he knows his main user groups have been extreme-right or right-wing groups. It lands well.” Telegram disputed this characterisation, adding that its users “don’t belong to a certain political party, what unites them is a belief in free speech”.

Durov is also close to Xavier Niel, the maverick French tech and telecoms billionaire who was among the first people Durov called after his detainment, according to people familiar with the matter. Niel has taken regular walks with Durov around Paris and advised him on how to navigate the French legal system. Niel, who spent a short stint in prison early in his career related to his early investments in sex shops in France, told the FT in November 2024: “When I went to prison, everyone disappeared on me. So when a friend runs into a problem in France, I’m not the kind of person who doesn’t pick up the phone.”

Durov has also courted Elon Musk, who associates say he long admired. In December 2024, Durov met Musk for lunch when the X boss was visiting Paris for the reopening of the Notre-Dame cathedral. Shortly after a second meeting in May, Durov announced a one-year deal with xAI to integrate the start-up’s controversial Grok chatbot into Telegram. Telegram was to receive $300mn from xAI, as well as half the revenue from xAI subscriptions sold via the messaging app, he wrote on X.

That partnership has not materialised. Instead, Telegram recently launched Cocoon, a “decentralised AI network” designed by Nikolai and others, whereby individual owners of the expensive GPU chips that power AI models rent them out to developers in return for Toncoin.

There have also been PR crises. In July 2024, a woman named Irina Bolgar told Forbes Russia that Durov was father to her three children, providing proof of his paternity. Days later, Durov posted on social media about his widespread sperm donation projects, saying it was possible he had “over 100 biological kids” and he planned to “open source” his DNA so that his children could find one another. In August that year, it emerged that Bolgar had filed a criminal lawsuit against Durov in a Swiss court in 2023 alleging he had been violent towards one of their children and had stopped supporting the family financially, according to court documents. Telegram rejected the allegations: “These events, which never occurred, were only ‘remembered’ by Ms Bolgar . . . as she was preparing to initiate legal proceedings for personal financial gain. The suspicious timing raises doubts about the credibility of these accusations.”

He’s so rich that he feels he owns the world. In some ways, it’s true . . . Poor Pavel

One of Durov’s preoccupations, as he has gone after western investment and audiences, has been distancing himself from his native country. In the past, Durov has refused to take sides on the Russia-Ukraine war or comment on Vladimir Putin: “Let’s not go there,” he told the FT in 2024. But he continues to deny any ties to Moscow. “A sad spectacle of a state afraid of its own people,” he said on Tuesday after the news of the Russian criminal investigation broke.

In the wake of the French investigation, conjecture about these ties has grown in the west. Upon his detainment in Paris, Moscow raced to offer Durov assistance, demanding consular access to him and suggesting the case was politically motivated. Independent Russian news website iStories reported it had obtained records of Durov having travelled in and out of Russia more than 50 times between 2014 and 2021.

Other critics noted that immediately before his detainment, Durov had been travelling around Central Asia with Vavilova, staying at the Four Seasons in Baku, Azerbaijan, where they drove racing cars, took helicopter rides and sharpened their marksmanship at shooting ranges. The trip appears to have overlapped with Putin’s state visit to Baku on August 18 and 19. The Kremlin has publicly denied there was any meeting between the pair.

Even so, said one European official, if Durov had “problems with Russia . . . I struggle with the messaging. Durov was in Baku, that’s practically Putin’s backyard”. Telegram said that Durov made infrequent trips to St Petersburg to visit family, which he posted about publicly on his Instagram account, noting he has not returned since the start of the war in Ukraine. The company rejected the idea of any meeting between Durov and Putin in Baku. It said: “Mr Durov was in a city of 2.4 million people outside of Russia, not at a backyard barbecue across from the Kremlin.”

Evaluations differ on the strength of the investigation against Durov. His allies believe the case against him is weak, the result of a net cast as wide as possible by French prosecutors who, they claim, lack expertise in digital platforms. “I have never seen so many accusations with so little legal precision,” one of Durov’s lawyers, Christophe Ingrain, told French magazine Le Point.

The prosecutors leading the investigation say they acted after receiving complaints about Telegram’s lack of responsiveness to requests from law enforcement in France and other European countries. Johanna Brousse, the magistrate who leads the cyber crimes division at the Paris prosecutor’s office, is a particularly formidable opponent. Her peers describe her as a determined campaigner unafraid to push boundaries to prosecute across borders and at the cutting edge of technology. “She’s like Joan of Arc . . . she’s impassioned about her work with a strong sense of the collective,” one said.

Durov’s patience with the French justice system seems to have worn thin. Last year, he accused top French intelligence officials of pressuring him to censor certain conservative Moldovan and Romanian accounts on Telegram ahead of fraught elections in each country. “I refused. We didn’t block protesters in Russia, Belarus, or Iran. We won’t start doing it in Europe,” he wrote on X.

In a rare public statement France’s intelligence agency DGSE said it “strongly refutes allegations that requests to ban accounts linked to any electoral process were made”. Instead, it had “been obliged, on several occasions” to contact Durov “to remind him firmly of his company’s responsibilities, and his own personal responsibilities, in terms of preventing terrorist and child pornography threats”.

In the coming weeks, Telegram is due to repay the principal on some of its bonds. Whether investors will be as forthcoming in the future as they have been in the past remains to be seen. For its part, Telegram insists on its independence in the near term. “Following next month’s bond payment, we will remain highly liquid, with cash on hand that materially exceeds our outstanding bond obligations,” it said. “Our balance sheet is strong, we are generating substantial cash flow, and we have neither the need nor the intention to seek external financing.”

One person familiar with Durov’s thinking claims the drawn out investigation has begun to weigh on him. “He feels all this is very unfair and misguided,” they said. Publicly, though, Durov has remained steadfast. “Up until this day we don’t understand what we did wrong . . . the investigation is ongoing and it’s been frustratingly slow,” he said, via video link to the Oslo Freedom Forum in May 2025. His appearance was introduced by a projected image of Durov dressed as a Greek deity, oiled chest barely covered by a white toga, with a goat slung over his shoulder.

Asked by the interviewer if he considered himself a hostage in France, or if French intelligence were trying to pressure him to “do what they want”, Durov was solemn. “I seem to be held to higher standards than most other platforms,” he replied. “I would rather die than become anyone’s asset”.

FT : JPMorgan cuts services for Citadel Securities in clash over roles

JPMorgan cuts services for Citadel Securities in clash over roles
Move underscores tensions between Wall Street banks and clients as businesses converge

JPMorgan Chase cut some trading functions it provided for Citadel Securities after the firm launched a service for clients that muscled in on the bank’s business, according to people familiar with the matter.

JPMorgan told Citadel Securities last year it would no longer offer the group so-called high-touch equity trading services, such as handling trades that are not done purely electronically and pitching research for trade ideas, the people said.

The move came after Citadel Securities announced plans for its own high-touch equity business that would compete with JPMorgan. To lead its effort, Citadel recruited the head of JPMorgan’s high-touch equities trading service, Elan Luger. 

Citadel Securities is a market-maker that matches buyers and sellers on trades. It was founded by Ken Griffin, who also runs the separate hedge fund firm Citadel.

JPMorgan is still offering prime brokerage services to Citadel Securities and so-called programmatic trading services. The bank’s relationship with Citadel is unaffected. 

The moves underscore the occasionally fraught relationship between banks and trading firms as their roles on Wall Street evolve. For a long time, banks viewed them as clients but are increasingly considering them competitors too as they expand into new areas. 

JPMorgan and Citadel Securities declined to comment.

Citadel Securities has grown into a market giant by electronically facilitating billions of trades, often acting as an unseen processor of order flows from retail investors. Banks have shied away from spending the huge sums of money required to maintain technology infrastructure for such vast trading volumes.

But Citadel Securities’ move into high-touch equities trading has put them more directly in competition with investment banks such as JPMorgan. 

For this, companies like JPMorgan and Citadel Securities seek to execute large, often complex trades for big asset managers and hedge funds such as BlackRock and Millennium Management. 

With the start of its new equities business, Citadel Securities had been sourcing block trades, or large tranches of a company’s shares, through investors looking to sell shares, rather than investment banks, a person familiar with the matter said.

JPMorgan co-head of commercial and investment banking Troy Rohrbaugh on Monday told a shareholder event that the bank has “a long track record” of relationships where they both compete and service firms such as Citadel Securities. 

“I feel very comfortable that we can hold our own and gain share,” Rohrbaugh said. “They may gain share as well but it will arguably, in our view, be at the expense of someone else.”

Miami-based Citadel Securities beta tested its offering for high-touch equity trading last year and formally launched the business at the start of 2026.

Equities trading has been a booming business for Wall Street in the past few years, benefiting from extreme bouts of market volatility around geopolitical and monetary policy swings.

JPMorgan’s reported equities trading revenue rose 33 per cent in 2025 to more than $13bn. Privately held Citadel Securities does not disclose financial results, but the FT reported last year that its profits jumped nearly 70 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 to $1.7bn.

Barron's : Activists Step Up Pressure on Struggling Stocks. Beware, Long-Term In

Activists Step Up Pressure on Struggling Stocks. Beware, Long-Term Investors.

  • Appaloosa’s David Tepper criticized Whirlpool’s stock issuance.
  • Activist campaigns reached an all-time high of 255 last year, fueled by M&A resurgence and equity market volatility.
  • A Harvard study found 60% of companies underperformed the market by nearly 10% after activist settlements.

Whirlpool stock continues to go down the drain, and David Tepper of Appaloosa Management, the company’s third-largest investor, isn’t happy. He’s joining the growing list of prominent activists pressuring underperforming companies to get their financial house in order.

Tepper sent a strongly worded letter to Whirlpool management on Wednesday, arguing that the company’s decision to issue more stock “resulted in a large, unnecessary dilution of shareholders.” Shares plunged 14% Tuesday on the news of Whirlpool’s $963 million offering, and have tumbled more than 30% over the past year.

Whirlpool isn’t the only major company that has come under attack from activist investors. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Tripadvisor are in the crosshairs of Paul Singer’s Elliott Management and Jeff Smith’s Starboard Value, respectively.

In fact, activist shareholders have been having a field day lately. According to a report from Barclays, there were 255 activist campaigns announced last year, a new all-time high.

“The resurgence of M&A and equity market volatility created favorable conditions for activism,” said Jim Rossman, global head of shareholder advisory for Barclays, in the report. KeyCorp, Barrick Mining, Lululemon, and Keurig Dr Pepper were also notable activist targets toward the end of 2025, he added.

But with the trend likely to continue this year, regular investors should be wary. After all, activists often target weaker companies in need of change.

Activist investors have also targeted underperforming stocks overseas. The CEOs of U.K.-based oil giant BP and British consumer products conglomerate Unilever were both forced out last year after pressure from Elliott and Nelson Peltz’s Trian, respectively. (Elliott was the most active activist, if you will, launching 18 campaigns last year, according to Barclays). And just this year, Japanese toilet maker Toto has come under pressure from activist firm Palliser Capital to focus more on its ceramics business, a key supplier of components to semiconductor equipment firms.

But investors may want to think twice before buying a stock that’s come under fire from activists. Researchers at the Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance pointed out in a report last April that stocks often trail the broader market once activists get what they want.

The Harvard team found that about 60% of the 634 companies they looked at between 2010 and the end of 2024 underperformed the market after activists settled with a company. And the average lag behind the market was nearly 10%.

“Companies targeted by activists may have fundamental issues that drew the activist in the first place and remain post-settlement,” the researchers said. “Another explanation is that settling with an activist and prioritizing their agenda in the boardroom is inherently disruptive, ultimately weighing down the company’s performance.”

The Harvard team added that “settlements do not generate benefits for investors with long-term investment horizons.” But there is one notable exception: when activists successfully pressure a company to sell itself. Those stocks outperformed the market by more than 15%.

Still, that’s a risky bet.

But what if an investor wants to follow the lead of activist investors? One possible approach is buying the stock when the agitator is first making noise and then selling if the target company finally gives in to an activist’s demands. Investors in Whirlpool, Norwegian, Tripadvisor, and other activist targets need to keep that in mind.

Barron's : Insider Trading Is Shaping Prediction Markets. Polymarket Sees an Edg

Insider Trading Is Shaping Prediction Markets. Polymarket Sees an Edge.
Polymarket’s social-media account has repeatedly identified signs of insider trading on its prediction-market platform. It isn’t clear what happens next.

On Dec. 16, a new anonymous account on prediction-market platform Polymarket made a $68,000 bet that Kevin Hassett would be nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair. An official Polymarket social-media account posted a screenshot of the trade, seeming to suggest it came from a person in the know: “Either @novice99 can read Trump’s mind, or they’re serving coffee at Hassett’s breakfast meetings.”

On a stock exchange, any evidence of insider trading would quickly draw the attention of corporate counsels and regulators. On prediction markets, it could be an unavoidable part of the business model.

Stand CEO Edward Ridgely, who designs software for prediction-market traders, says there are times when “insiders are obviously shaping the market.” He pointed to the spike in Polymarket odds that Taylor Swift would get engaged hours before the pop star’s official announcement.

In the end, Hassett didn’t get the nod for Fed chair. The Polymarket social-media account has made more than two dozen posts flagging other potential insider transactions happening on the company’s prediction market. The posts allow other Polymarket users to play along. About half of the bets paid off, Barron’s found.

Polymarket didn’t respond to questions about the social-media posts. “Having an edge to the market is a good thing,” Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan told 60 Minutes in November, in response to a question about inside information on the platform. Coplan said the company has focused on the ethics of insider transactions, before adding that it was “sort of an inevitability that this will happen, and there’s a lot of benefits from it.”

Both Polymarket and rival Kalshi tout the learnings that come from people putting money on future events. For the predictions to be accurate, or efficient, the platforms rely on a pool of traders to distill the wisdom of the crowd.

The prediction markets are under growing scrutiny as a steady drip of questionable trades make headlines. In early January, one trader made a $30,000 bet on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro hours before he was captured by U.S. forces, resulting in a $400,000 payout. The trade spurred U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres (D., N.Y.) to introduce a bill barring federal workers from prediction markets.

This month, an Israel Defense Force reservist was arrested and charged for allegedly trading on military operations through Polymarket. “In carrying out such bets, relying on secret and classified information, there is a real security risk to IDF activities and state security,” the Israel Police said in a statement.

How to handle inside information is already generating a schism in the prediction-market world. Kalshi’s rulebook explicitly bans “insiders” from trading on its markets; Polymarket’s rulebook does not.

This past week, Kalshi announced that it had suspended two accounts for suspicious trading: a former California gubernatorial candidate who bet on himself to win the 2026 governor race, and an employee of YouTube star MrBeast who traded event contracts related to his boss’ videos. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in a follow-up press release that both instances were potential violations of insider trading laws.

The California candidate didn’t respond to a request for comment, and the MrBeast employee couldn’t be reached.

The Coalition for Prediction Markets, a Washington, D.C.–based trade group, has recognized the potential damage from insider trading. In January, it took out a full-page ad in the Washington Post emphasizing that “regulated prediction markets (already) ban insider trading.”

Kalshi is a member of the coalition; Polymarket isn’t.

In January, a Polymarket trader with the username “HD2” bet nearly $100,000 that BlackRock executive Rick Rieder would be nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair. Polymarket Money, an X account run by Polymarket, posted a screenshot of the trader’s account. Polymarket’s own annotation emphasized that HD2 was new to the platform. “Who is @HD2?” Polymarket Money asked.

Market watchers say that accounts making large, first-time bets can be a signal of insider activity.

In another post, Polymarket Money said that a trader on its platform either “sees the future, or they’re writing the script.”

Since its first X post on Dec. 9, Polymarket Money has shared a total of 25 posts that identify possible signals of insider trading on Polymarket, Barron’s found. In each example, Polymarket Money posted a screenshot of a trade and asked followers what the trader might know.

Polymarket didn’t make executives available for comment, and it didn’t respond to questions about whether its system took additional steps to monitor the trades.

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The CFTC requires prediction-market operators to have trading surveillance systems on par with those at other licensed exchanges, like CME Group’s Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Eventus, which provides market-surveillance software, lists Polymarket as a client on its website.

Polymarket has said it complies with applicable laws, and CEO Shayne Coplan told The Wall Street Journal that “the moment there’s a suspected insider, it’s pointed out on X, and it’s visible on Polymarket immediately.”

Polymarket has a data-sharing partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of Barron’s.

Kalshi told Barron’s that if the HD2 trade were made on its platform, it would be flagged by their monitoring system.

Prediction markets sell event contracts, a financial instrument regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, whose insider trading rules are modeled after those of the Securities Exchange Commission, the stock market regulator.

The CFTC says it has “full authority to police illegal trading practices.” Those illegal practices include the “misappropriation of confidential information in breach of a pre-existing duty of trust and confidence to the source of the information.”

When it comes to stock trading, companies often have their policies in place to protect against the chance of insider trades.

“It is illegal to buy or sell shares in Walmart or our business partners based on important or sensitive inside information,” Walmart says in its employee code of conduct. There’s no mention of prediction markets.

It’s unclear how many companies have taken the step of explicitly banning employees from using work-related information to trade on prediction markets. Barron’s asked all 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average if they had issued new guidance around trading on prediction markets since their mainstream emergence last year. One declined to comment; 29, including Walmart, haven’t responded.

Not all trading by insiders is illegal. Company executives, for instance, can trade their stock according to certain rules and trading windows. Those trades are often closely watched by market participants seeking to track the so-called smart money.

Prediction-market traders are now doing the same thing. Some have made big money mimicking the trades of potential insiders with specialized software that can instantly copy the moves of any trader on Polymarket, which posts all of its transactions to the blockchain.

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Stand, Ridgely’s firm, has facilitated more than $200 million in trading volume across Polymarket and Kalshi.

As with most exchanges, trade monitoring largely falls on the prediction-market platforms, which are tasked with identifying suspicious patterns such as new accounts making large trades and quick withdrawals after a winning bet.

The CFTC steps in when the platforms refer cases for investigation, or when it deems surveillance systems to be insufficient. The agency’s capacity to regulate prediction markets and other exchanges has been curtailed over the past year, however.

Barron’s reported in early February that the regulator’s storied Chicago office had zero enforcement attorneys and progress on enforcement actions had been slowed by layoffs and attrition.

“Several employees left before my tenure, but we have appropriate resources throughout the country,” CFTC Chair Mike Selig recently told Barron’s.

The rapid ascent and large variety of prediction markets has presented new challenges to regulators and complicated the surveillance of suspicious trades.

Joe Schifano, head of regulatory affairs at Eventus, says his company’s surveillance tools take in all kinds of data to develop scenarios consistent with insider trading and manipulation. When a user makes a trade or a series of trades that line up with an established scenario, red flags go up.

Kalshi is constantly writing contracts with new language, says Nicole Kagan, who drafts many of those contracts for Kalshi.

The speed at which new contracts are listed along with their sheer number and variety—Kagan says Kalshi has “thousands”—makes it “theoretically impossible to create a scenario for surveilling each one that’s tailored to each contract,” says Dorothy DeWitt, the director of the CFTC’s division of market oversight from 2019 to 2021, when the regulator first granted a U.S. license to Kalshi.

Monitoring tools are built on decades of observing activity in commodities markets, DeWitt says. Prediction-market oversight doesn’t get the benefit of that history.

Asaf Meir, CEO of Solidus Labs, Kalshi’s monitoring partner, says the most sophisticated market abusers know that those limitations in surveillance systems exist, and are constantly testing the boundaries set by prediction markets. The role of the exchanges is to stay one step ahead, Meir says. “It’s a bit of a cat-and-mouse game.”

Prediction markets are raising new questions in an age-old debate around information and free markets. In fact, some see inside information as key to prediction markets’ accuracy, which has been touted in academic research.

“I think it’s actually incredibly important to have some form of insider information in these markets,” says Polygon Labs CEO Marc Boiron, whose firm operates the blockchain used by Polymarket. “When nobody has information that is actually useful to determine the outcome of that market, you’re just plain gambling.”

Still, Boiron and Kalshi emphasize the need for fair markets and insider-trading laws.

Robert DeNault, Kalshi’s head of enforcement, says insider trading can reduce market participation over the long term. “If a user can’t trust that they’re going to come onto our platform and not be in an unfair information asymmetry with another user, then they’re not going to keep using our platform,” he says.

A few traders who spoke to Barron’s believe they’ve been on the losing side of an insider trade. Kyle Baker once had positions on a Saturday Night Live mention market, betting on what words the host would say in their opening monologue. A few hours before the show went on the air, he saw a raft of new activity on Kalshi’s order book. The inside information? Potentially someone who watched the dress rehearsal of the show just a few hours earlier.

Barron's : Tech Giants Are Paying Up to Power AI. These Utilities Will Be Big Wi

Tech Giants Are Paying Up to Power AI. These Utilities Will Be Big Winners.
Electric companies are gaining the upper hand in deals with Alphabet, Amazon, and others.

No AI magic trick is quite as impressive as the one it’s doing in financial markets—giving some utilities an upper hand with tech giants that are 100 times their size. It’s a trick that investors can cash in on.

A handful of utilities are poised to profit from the rush of spending by big tech firms, locking in a decade or more of cash flows to provide power to data centers.

It’s all the result of a potent new dynamic in the U.S. market for electricity. Tech companies are desperate to plug in their AI data centers, each of which can use 50 to 100 times as much power as the Empire State Building to run and cool their servers. In the past, utilities would hook data centers right into the grid like any other customer, and charge them a standard rate. But a political backlash against the warehouses sparked by soaring electricity prices is making that option untenable. So, tech companies are being forced to pick up more of the tab, signing deals that make them pay up even if AI proves to be a bust.

The issue even made it into President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech on Tuesday. “We’re telling the major tech companies that they have the obligation to provide for their own power needs,” he said. The goal is that “no one’s prices will go up, and in many cases prices will go down for the community, and very substantially down,” he said.

The utilities that have already made deals with tech companies say that consumers will receive a kind of data-center dividend, $100 or more in annual savings on their electricity bills. But the utilities themselves may be even bigger winners, as they lock in years of cash flow.

It’s no secret by now that AI data centers use massive amounts of electricity, and they are only getting more power hungry. The data centers that are already under construction will need as much electricity as all of Italy, according to JLL, a commercial real estate and investment firm that tracks the industry and operates some data centers. The existing grid can supply some of that juice, but there’s a limit. Eight of America’s 13 regional electric grids are already at or below critical spare capacity levels, according to Goldman Sachs, raising the risk of blackouts if too many big customers plug in at once. As much as a quarter of expected data-center developments could end up short of electricity by 2028, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd.

Tech companies are going to extraordinary measures to get that electricity, including using converted jet engines as power turbines and making special deals with Bitcoin mining companies to divert the crypto power to AI. But even those won’t be enough, analysts say.

In general, it’s good to own a commodity that’s in short supply. Just look at Nvidia. Its chips have only gotten more valuable as demand has risen. But electricity is different. Utilities have an obligation to serve local customers at a reasonable price. Surging demand from other kinds of users can cause more problems than opportunities.

The biggest problem now is that electricity bills are on the rise as utilities build out the grid and add new generation to serve data centers. Average U.S. residential electricity bills are up more than 30% since 2020. In Virginia, known for its warehouse-filled “Data Center Alley,” costs for all users are up an average of 17% in just the past year. Bills may continue to increase. The Edison Electric Institute, a trade group that represents investor-owned electric companies, projects that its members will spend $1.1 trillion from 2025 to 2029 on capital projects, nearly double the annualized rate at which they were spending in the prior decade. Someone has to pay for all of that investment.

Americans are increasingly blaming data-center operators for their rising bills, because it’s expensive to build the power plants and transmission lines to serve them, and costs are often shared by everyone who uses the grid. At least a half-dozen state legislatures are debating bills that could stop new data centers from being built. The anxiety cuts across partisan lines. Sen. Bernie Sanders has called for a national moratorium on data centers, but they’ve also drawn fire from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who wrote on X that “there isn’t even close to enough grid capacity for these data centers. Consumers will see electricity rates spike—and to what end?”

Trump himself has started paying much more attention to electricity costs, which are shaping up as a political liability ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. He had promised in 2024 to cut electricity costs in half in the first year of his term. Instead, average bills rose 6.3%.

On its face, this kind of attention looks like bad news for utilities. Rising costs and decreasing reliability are a dangerous mix for an industry that isn’t particularly popular even in good times. But the political pushback against data centers has lately been falling more on the tech companies than on the utilities. Data centers have become “the villain,” Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith argues.

It isn’t hard to see why. Compared with such past buildouts as America’s railroads, data centers do little for local economies. They bring a fraction of the jobs to the towns where they’re built, and consume resources like power and water. More than $150 billion worth of data-center projects have been delayed or canceled since 2023 because of community pushback, according to Data Center Watch, a research firm backed by AI security company 10a Labs.


The tech giants are starting to realize this is a vulnerability. After previously fighting utility plans to make them pay more for power, tech executives have said this year that they’re prepared to take on more of the burden. In January, Microsoft President Brad Smith announced a “Community-First AI Infrastructure” plan meant to dampen the pushback. The first tenet of the plan is that “we’ll pay our way to ensure our data centers don’t increase your electricity prices.”

“Especially when tech companies are so profitable, we believe that it’s both unfair and politically unrealistic for our industry to ask the public to shoulder added electricity costs for AI,” he wrote.

Amazon.com and other tech giants made similar commitments to pay their own way. If the tech firms hold true to these pledges, the benefits will flow through to consumers. But they’ll also help utilities, whose earnings growth rates already are turning higher.

“If you’re at the utility, you’re able to benefit from this moment of political pressure that fell onto the hyperscalers,” said Rodney Rebello, a portfolio manager focusing on utilities at Reaves Asset Management. “They have to pay more. And now you can effectively run behind that.”

The utilities that are benefiting the most tend to be in unexpected places, outside the historical data-center growth areas like northern Virginia. In fact, 64% of data centers under construction are in so-called “frontier” markets, from the Midwest to the South, according to JLL. Tech companies are drawn to these markets by friendly regulations, available power, and tax breaks.

NiSource, a publicly traded electric and natural-gas utility that operates in Indiana and five other states, may be the best example of a utility that’s embracing the moment.

In 2024, the fast-moving world of data centers showed up at the doorstep of a sleepy NiSource subsidiary called Nipsco in northern Indiana. Nipsco serves about 500,000 electricity customers including a few industrial plants along Lake Michigan. All of its customers combined use about 2.4 gigawatts of power capacity, or as much as is provided by two to three large nuclear reactors. But two years ago, it started getting inquiries from data-center developers asking for much more power.

Added together, the prospective customers were likely to more than double the area’s power demand in just a few years. At the high end, the new customers could have added as much as eight gigawatts of new demand, says Nipsco President Vince Parisi. Tech companies were attracted to the area’s friendly regulatory environment, proximity to Chicago, abundant water supplies, and fiberoptic network.

That kind of sudden, enormous demand surge is a mixed blessing. Adding eight gigawatts of new demand to a 2.4 gigawatt system is like chaining an M1 Abrams tank to a Toyota Camry and expecting the two vehicles to drive calmly down the highway together. In theory, data-center deals could supercharge Nipsco’s earnings growth, with the company building large new power plants and earning regulated returns on the value of their infrastructure. But it could also leave Nipsco on the hook for billions of dollars in liabilities if the data-center developers walked away after the infrastructure was already built. When a power plant is abandoned, the financial burden tends to fall on consumer bills.

Nipsco didn’t want to turn these new customers away. So, it created a new subsidiary called GenCo, whose sole purpose would be to serve the biggest customers, keeping the impact away from their normal mom-and-pop customers.

In November, GenCo inked its first deal with Amazon, a plan to build 2.6 gigawatts worth of natural-gas power plants and 400 megawatts worth of battery storage—more than Nipsco’s entire existing system. Amazon’s data centers are expected to draw about 2.4 gigawatts worth of power, with the excess generation being sent to the rest of the grid. Amazon is expected to pay for the full cost of the generation, plus its share of transmission costs and other “shared system charges.”

The buildout is expected to cost nearly $7 billion, and the contract lasts 15 years—though Amazon will have an option to back out of part of it by 2029. Nipsco told regulators that it expects to be able to send $1 billion back to customers over the course of the contract, amounting to a discount on their bills of $7 to $9 a month.

Nipsco is in “active negotiations” with another one to three gigawatts worth of data-center customers “and then potentially behind that, there could be another three, as well,” Parisi said.

The deals won’t just help customers; they’ll also flow to the company’s bottom line. NiSource expects its adjusted earnings growth rate to accelerate to 8% to 9% from 2026 to 2033, above its prior growth rate of 6% to 8%. It’s a big reason Rebello likes the stock, which is a holding in the Virtus Reaves Utilities exchange-traded fund, which he co-manages. Dumoulin-Smith thinks it can get to $53, about 15% above current levels.


Other utilities are also in line to gain, and benefit customers.

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Louisiana’s Entergy, for instance, is building an enormous data-center campus for Meta Platforms in rural Louisiana, and working on one in Mississippi for Amazon. For the Louisiana center, Meta agreed to fund power plant equipment in advance. “For our residential customers, we estimate the data-center contracts in place today will generate approximately $5 billion in rate offsets from their fair share of contributions to fixed costs during the life of the contracts,” said Entergy CEO Andrew Marsh on a company earnings call. The company expects to grow earnings by over 8% annually through 2029.

Idacorp, owner of Idaho Power, has also been signing big data-center deals with companies like Meta, and is expanding its asset base faster than any other company in the industry, according to BTIG analyst Alex Kania, who rates the stock at Buy and expects it to rise another 10%. Idaho Power says its bills are 20% to 30% below the national average, “in part through the design of pricing and contractual provisions for new large load customers.”

To be sure, there’s some skepticism that these plans will work out in the way that utilities say they will. Some electricity experts and consumer advocates say the companies aren’t showing their math. Nipsco’s state regulatory filings list the Amazon power contract as “highly confidential.” Utilities often don’t detail how costs for added equipment like transmission lines will be paid for, argues Ari Peskoe, the director of the Electricity Law Initiative at the Harvard Law School Environmental and Energy Law Program.

Others note that the agreements between utilities and tech companies run for only 12 to 15 years, whereas power infrastructure like gas plants tends to last much longer. If tech companies don’t extend their contracts, utilities could be forced to find other ways to pay for that infrastructure. “You could sign a 15-year contract. But what does that mean for the other 45 or 55 years of the asset?” said Charles Hua, the executive director of PowerLines, a nonprofit focused on consumer energy issues.

Rebello said he believes that the tech companies are essentially paying for the full capital costs of the plants like the ones Nipsco is building, so the “leftover” costs after 15 years won’t be debilitating to existing users. Parisi of Nipsco said that’s an accurate assumption.

The other unknown here is how these agreements will affect the tech companies themselves over the long term. The five largest data-center players— Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle —are on track to spend $710 billion in capital expenses this year. Most of that money will go toward pricey equipment like Nvidia chips.

Electricity costs are a minor part of the capital budget, and shouldn’t make much of a dent on the companies’ balance sheets. But the longer-term electricity contracts that tech companies are now signing with utilities will become significant repeating costs in another section of their financial results: the income statement.

“The new generation is actually less than 10% of the total cost of what it is to get that data center up and running,” said Moody’s Ratings analyst John Medina, who covers infrastructure finance. “But from an operating cost, like two-thirds of the annual operating cost is the power.”

The tech companies don’t make it easy to track exactly how much they’re spending, said Moody’s Ratings analyst Raj Joshi, who covers tech. “You can’t even get to the actual businesses,” he said. “They lump hundreds of billions of dollars in single lines. The SEC doesn’t require them to disclose” the electricity costs.

There’s a back-of-the-envelope way to calculate the potential costs. Electricity produced by a plant with a gigawatt of power capacity costs roughly $1 billion a year, depending on the source and the location. Assuming tech companies will add 40 gigawatts by 2030—and assuming they contract for it directly and pay for all of it—they could collectively be adding about $40 billion in annual electricity-related costs, a small but still noticeable piece of their $700 billion or so in total expenses.

Joshi isn’t yet treating it as a major credit problem, but “it does introduce this additional element of risk,” he said.

Caroline Golin, who led Google’s energy-market development until last year, says that tech companies have been buying power for years but for much different purposes than they are today. Google itself was a pioneer in the electricity market, creating contracts that allowed it to buy renewable power in long-term deals. But the purpose of their power purchases was to shift their energy use to cleaner sources as part of decarbonization goals. It was possible to do so using their existing cash flows, rather than taking on debt.

“These energy teams, they were built to meet a climate goal,” she said. “They weren’t built to produce tens of gigawatts of capacity in a short amount of time. And now they’re going to have to.”

The new kind of power purchases they’re making are mission critical, much more expensive, and almost certainly dirtier from an environmental perspective, she said.

The tech companies have said they would offset their fossil fuel-generated power purchases with renewables like solar. If so, their costs for all kinds of power are certain to keep rising.

The path for utility profits in the data-center boom is becoming clearer. Tech companies are ready to foot more of the cost. The bill will eventually come due.

WSJ : Six Months, 9 Offers and $81 Billion. How Hollywood’s Nasty Takeover Was W

Six Months, 9 Offers and $81 Billion. How Hollywood’s Nasty Takeover Was Won.
Paramount’s David Ellison used his wealth and influence to get Warner

  • Paramount, led by David Ellison, won a bidding war to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $81 billion after Netflix withdrew its offer.
  • The acquisition gives the Ellison family control over a vast media empire including HBO, CNN, CBS News, and Warner Bros. studio.
  • Paramount’s stock price rose over 20% and Netflix’s surged nearly 14% on Friday following the announcement of the deal’s conclusion.

For six months, the son of one of the world’s richest men kept hearing the same unfamiliar word: No.

Even before he closed a deal to combine his company with a much bigger one, David Ellison was already plotting to do it again. Once his Skydance Media took control of Paramount PSKY 20.84%increase; green up pointing triangle, he turned his attention to a Hollywood icon, launching an audacious takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery WBD -2.19%decrease; red down pointing triangle that would give the Ellison family control of a sprawling media empire.

His first offer was swatted away. So were his second and third. By the time Ellison made his sixth offer, Warner Chief Executive Officer David Zaslav stopped responding to his texts. Even when Warner officially accepted a rival offer from Netflix NFLX 13.77%increase; green up pointing triangle, Ellison refused to take no for an answer.

As the battle dragged on, Ellison sweetened his offers, ratcheted up the pressure, took the hostile bid directly to shareholders, threatened a bruising proxy fight, brought in President Trump allies to lobby, and treated the existing term sheet like paper waiting to be shredded.

On the ninth offer, the wealth and influence of the Ellisons finally won.

The dramatic bidding war ended on Thursday night, after Paramount made its latest attempt to buy Warner for $81 billion—and Netflix walked away from the deal. Shortly after photographers snapped Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos leaving the White House, the company announced that it wouldn’t match Ellison’s latest offer, which was 63% higher than his first.

And once Netflix dropped its own $72 billion deal for Warner’s studios and HBO Max streaming business, the scion of software billionaire Larry Ellison was poised to become one of the most powerful people in a town that once derided him as a nepo-baby.

Ellison, 43 years old, as Paramount chief executive will now control much of our attention: the shows we watch, the news we consume and the screens we stare at all day long, with a family portfolio that will include HBO, CNN, CBS News, the historic Warner Bros. studio lot and crown jewels such as DC Comics and Harry Potter.

As much as Ellison and his team had been telling anyone who would listen that his business would ultimately prevail in buying a company five times its size, the reaction on Friday from Hollywood to Washington to Wall Street was astonishment.

Paramount’s stock price shot up over 20% on Friday. Netflix’s surged nearly 14%. Politicians howled at the prospect of so much media power being consolidated in the hands of a single family. Thousands of employees across three companies were left wondering what comes next at a time when the future of the entertainment business has rarely been so uncertain.

Even the CEO at the center of the action said he was surprised by the ending.

“We all thought it was going to be Netflix,” Zaslav told staffers in a companywide town hall, adding that the speed of the drama “feels a little whiplashy.”

The deal could take anywhere from six to 18 months to close. Ellison will need to cut a lot of costs to find $6 billion in savings to make the deal work. But that didn’t stop Paramount’s leadership from popping Champagne, which they drank out of paper cups, Thursday afternoon.

Only days earlier Paramount was preparing its next move if it didn’t win. It had a slate of director nominees lined up for a proxy fight and planned to submit them as soon as this past week if Warner refused to accept Paramount’s latest, sweetened offer, according to people familiar with the matter.

Late last Saturday night, Ellison called Zaslav with the structure of the deal that met Warner’s demands. The duo talked again on Sunday and Monday as they scrambled to get as much settled as possible for a Monday midnight deadline to stop talking, people familiar with the matter said. Ellison promised his father would contribute additional funding to satisfy lenders, if needed.

Meanwhile, Netflix executives were discussing standing down. Sarandos and fellow co-CEO Greg Peters had said they would be disciplined on price, and if Paramount was going to increase its offer to $31 a share plus add-ons, the company would likely bow out, said people familiar with the discussions.

Ellison began his quest in earnest with a September visit to Zaslav’s Beverly Hills home, once owned by legendary Paramount studio chief Robert Evans. Ellison proposed a $19-per-share cash-and-stock bid for the company and followed up with a formal letter.

Warner rejected the Ellison overture as inadequate, favoring Zaslav’s existing plan to split the media and entertainment empire in two—one company for the movie and TV studios and HBO Max, the other containing TV networks including CNN and Food Network.

Paramount made two more offers, at one point even offering Zaslav the opportunity to be co-chairman and co-CEO of the combined company with Ellison if a deal happened.

Unpersuaded, Warner in October announced a strategic review, effectively setting up an auction.

Netflix’s Sarandos had told associates that if Warner did go through with spinning off its cable networks, he wanted to make a play for the streaming and studio businesses, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Netflix executives internally have over the years discussed how M&A might help the company grow, which would be a departure from its long-held preference for building rather than buying, said people close to the discussions.

Before Ellison bought Paramount, Netflix had approached former Paramount controlling shareholder Shari Redstone about buying the company’s studio a number of times. But she didn’t want to sell, according to people familiar with the situation. The company had also discussed bidding for MGM, said people familiar with the discussions.

In November, Netflix offered to buy Warner’s studios and HBO Max streaming business. So did Comcast.

In December, Ellison lobbed in his sixth bid, saying Paramount had offered a package that covered all the issues Warner had raised, including the need for “strong cash value” and “speed to close.”

Soon after, Warner declared Netflix victorious. It agreed to sell the key assets for $27.75 a share, or $72 billion.

Three days later, Paramount announced it was taking a tender offer directly to shareholders.

As Ellison doubled down, Warner and Netflix signaled to the market that their deal was moving forward. Warner distributed photos of Zaslav walking the Warner Bros. studio lot in Burbank with Sarandos and Peters, smiling in front of the studio’s famed water tower. Paramount executives shared the photos among themselves, and some rolled their eyes over them, according to people close to the company.

Meanwhile, Ellison was making inroads in Washington. He offered assurance to Trump administration officials that if he bought Warner, he’d make sweeping changes to CNN, a common target of President Trump’s ire, The Wall Street Journal first reported.

Just days after going hostile, Ellison sat in President Trump’s box at the Kennedy Center honors. Paramount chief legal officer Makan Delrahim, the former Trump Justice Department antitrust head, oversaw a lobbying campaign that encouraged Republican lawmakers and administration officials to question Netflix’s bid. Delrahim himself ramped up the pressure, touting Paramount’s messaging online and engaging in the deal talks, including by holding meetings with investors.

For his part, Sarandos had been laying the groundwork for the Netflix deal for some time—going back and forth to D.C., said people familiar with the situation. Netflix had hired its own veteran of the first Trump administration, Clete Willems, who had a team of GOP advisers, including Kellyanne Conway and Brian Ballard.

Netflix was working with a deficit of political support from the start, because they could not rely on Democrats, Hollywood’s natural allies. Top Democrats such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) opposed the merger from the start.

In January, Ellison ramped up the pressure. Paramount threatened to run a proxy fight to secure seats on Warner’s board and filed a lawsuit seeking to force Warner to release more information about its deal with Netflix.

Netflix shareholders were steadily losing patience. The company had over $170 billion wiped off its market value since last September, when reports started to surface that it could be a potential bidder for Warner.


Senators from both major political parties grilled Sarandos at a February Judiciary Committee hearing, expressing concern about the market power of a Netflix-Warner tie-up. Sarandos said repeatedly that Netflix was committed to maintaining the Warner Bros. studio theatrical-movie business and planned to continue to operate itself and HBO Max as separate entities.

The tide began to shift in Paramount’s favor in mid-February. Paramount indicated to Warner that it would up its price to $31.

In a key move that helped get Warner’s attention, Paramount amended its proposal to add an unusual takeover provision, what it called a “ticking fee” of 25 cents a share, which it would pay to Warner shareholders for each quarter its deal hasn’t closed, starting January 2027. Paramount said it would pay the $2.8 billion termination fee Warner would owe Netflix if that deal collapsed.

Netflix agreed to allow Warner to discuss Paramount’s latest proposal during a seven-day negotiating period ending on Feb. 23, saying it would clear up the situation once and for all.

After the negotiating window ended, Warner’s board said it determined that Paramount’s newest offer could reasonably be expected to lead in a deal superior to its existing one with Netflix. In addition to raising the price to $31 a share, Paramount increased its regulatory termination fee to $7 billion and accelerated the ticking fee to start after Sept. 30 rather than next year.

In the days before Paramount’s revised bid was submitted, Netflix executives discussed walking away instead of continuing the bidding war, according to people close to the discussions.

Meanwhile, Sarandos forged on with plans to meet with officials in D.C., Thursday, including acting Assistant Attorney General Omeed Assefi.

Sarandos was preparing for a separate meeting with White House officials that day when he got a phone call.

It was Zaslav, and he had bad news for Sarandos. The Warner board had decided Paramount’s latest offer was superior.

Soon after receiving that call, Netflix announced that it was walking away.

On Friday, Paramount paid a breakup fee of $2.8 billion to Netflix.

WSJ : Nvidia Plans New Chip to Speed AI Processing, Shake Up Computing Market

Nvidia Plans New Chip to Speed AI Processing, Shake Up Computing Market
Under pressure from rivals, the chip giant is set to offer a new product focused on rapid processing of AI queries for ‘inference’ demand

  • Nvidia plans to unveil a new processor for AI inference computing, designed to help customers like OpenAI build faster, more efficient tools.
  • The new platform will incorporate a chip designed by startup Groq, with OpenAI agreeing to be one of its largest customers.
  • Nvidia is adapting to a market shift from AI model training to inference, where some see its flagship GPUs as less efficient than new specialized chips.

Nvidia NVDA -4.16%decrease; red down pointing triangle plans to unveil a new processor specially tailored to help OpenAI and other customers build faster, more efficient tools, a major shake-up to its business that is poised to reset the AI race.

The company is designing a new system for “inference” computing, a form of processing that allows AI models to respond to queries, according to people familiar with the plans. The new platform, set to be revealed at Nvidia’s GTC developer conference in San Jose next month, will incorporate a chip designed by the startup Groq, the people said.

Inference computing has been the subject of intense industry competition. Rivals Google and Amazon have designed chips that compete with Nvidia’s flagship systems. And the explosion of autonomous coding in the tech workforce has created demand for new chips that can more efficiently handle complex AI-related tasks.

OpenAI has agreed to become one of the largest customers of the new processor, some of the people said, representing a major win for Nvidia. The ChatGPT maker, which is one of Nvidia’s largest customers, has spent the past few months shopping for more efficient alternatives to Nvidia’s chips, and signed a deal with a chip startup last month that provides it with new options.

Earlier Friday, OpenAI alluded to the new processor when it announced it would sign up for a major purchase of “dedicated inference capacity” from Nvidia, alongside a $30 billion investment from the chip giant. It also signed a major new deal to use Amazon’s Trainium chips.

Nvidia has dominated the business of designing and selling GPUs—graphics processing units—a type of processor that can perform billions of simple tasks simultaneously. But for the first time since the start of the AI boom, it is confronting the limits of its flagship product. As the market shifts towards inference, Nvidia is feeling pressure from some customers to produce chips that can more efficiently power AI applications.

The company’s powerful Hopper, Blackwell and Rubin series GPUs are considered best-in-class for training gigantic AI models and command top prices. Most analysts estimate that Nvidia controls 90% or more of the GPU market.

Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang has long claimed that Nvidia’s GPUs are the market leader for both training and inference, and that such versatility was a key appeal of the product.

But over the past year, demand for advanced computing has shifted from training to inference as companies deploy AI agents and other tools that they hope will upend hundreds of industries and generate enormous profits from subscription fees. Agents are AI systems that act relatively autonomously to carry out tasks on behalf of users.

Many companies that build and operate AI agents find that GPUs are too costly, consume too much energy and aren’t as well-suited to actually running their models. With the meteoric rise of agentic AI, Nvidia is under pressure to develop inference chips that are less expensive and more energy-efficient.

Last month, OpenAI signed a multibillion-dollar computing partnership with Cerebras, which offers an inference-focused chip that its CEO Andrew Feldman says is faster than Nvidia’s GPUs. OpenAI entered into negotiations with Cerebras last fall after its engineers asked for a faster inference chip for agentic coding applications, The Journal previously reported.

Nvidia agreed to pay $20 billion late last year to license key technologies from Groq and hire its top leadership, including founder Jonathan Ross, in one of Silicon Valley’s largest-ever “acqui-hire” deals, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Groq designed chips that use a different architecture from Nvidia’s, called “language processing units,” which are highly efficient for inference functions. So far, however, Nvidia has kept mum about how it intends to use Groq’s technology.

AI inference computing is divided into two main tasks: pre-fill, or the process by which a model interprets a user prompt, and decode, by which the model generates a response, one word at a time. Pre-fill is usually the faster of the two processes, while decode tends to be especially slow, for larger AI models.

Coding applications have emerged as one of the most important—and profitable—uses of enterprise AI, with Anthropic’s Claude Code generally regarded as the market leader. But Anthropic relies primarily on chips designed by Amazon Web Services and Alphabet’s Google Cloud unit, rather than by Nvidia, to power its models.

One of Claude’s closest competitors, however, is OpenAI’s fast-growing Codex tool. The ChatGPT-maker plans to use the new Nvidia system to improve Codex, people familiar with the matter said.

Typically, Nvidia has paired its Vera chips, which are central processing units, or CPUs, with its Rubin GPUs in powerful data center servers, but some large customers have found that certain agentic AI workloads can be run more efficiently on CPUs alone.

This month, Nvidia announced an expanded partnership with Meta Platforms that included the first-ever significant CPU-only deployment to support Meta’s ad-targeting AI agents. The deal offered an early window into Nvidia’s strategy to look beyond the GPU to lock up pockets of the AI market.