TheChek News Flow

New U.S. case involves a Chicago woman who traveled to China last month and returned to the U.S. on Jan. 13

Health authorities said Friday a second person in the U.S. has been infected by the respiratory virus that emerged in central China last month and has been spreading since to other countries.

The case involves a woman in her 60s from Chicago who had traveled to Wuhan in late December and returned to the U.S. on Jan. 13, said Allison Arwady, Chicago’s health commissioner. The woman has been isolated in a hospital, and is doing well, Dr. Arwady said.

Hers is the second case to be confirmed in the U.S., after health authorities reported the hospitalization of a Washington State man in his 30s who had traveled to the central Chinese city where the outbreak started.

Officials at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said they expected the virus, which emerged last month in a meat and seafood market in the Chinese city Wuhan, would spread to more people in the U.S. and elsewhere around the world.

The CDC said it has been investigating whether 63 patients from 22 states have been infected with the China virus. Only the two have tested positive for the virus so far, while eleven were negative.

The Wuhan virus belongs to a family of respiratory viruses that can be spread by coughing, kissing or making contact with saliva. Often, these coronaviruses simply cause common colds. But others have been more serious, even deadly.

In the U.S., authorities have been screening international travelers arriving at five major airports for fevers and other symptoms of an infection, while alerting hospitals to take measures to screen people who have traveled to Wuhan and control infections.

The Chicago woman who was infected didn’t show symptoms until a few days after returning to the U.S. from China, Dr. Arwady said. After learning about the woman’s trip, her doctor took steps to prevent further spread, including sending the woman to a hospital with infection control.

Health authorities are monitoring the woman’s close contacts, who haven’t shown any signs of infections, Dr. Arwady said.

Dr. Arwady expressed doubt the woman transmitted the virus since she didn’t have symptoms while flying—and after returning to the U.S., didn’t take public transportation or attend any large gatherings, In addition, she did not have long, close contact with anyone outside her home, Dr. Arwady added.

Europe’s economy remained a global weak spot as 2020 got under way, with its services sector losing momentum even as factories saw export orders begin to stabilize after a long and deep decline.

Signs of continued sluggishness in Europe will dent hopes that the global economy will stage a modest rebound this year as some of the uncertainties around the rules governing global trade lift, following a cease-fire agreement between the U.S. and China, and the U.K. due to leave the European Union next week in an orderly fashion.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that the global economy grew at the weakest pace since the financial crisis during 2019, but expects to see a slight pickup this year. Other economists share that view.

“We see a meaningful recovery,” said Chetan Ahya, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, who expects global economic growth to pick up steadily to 3.5% by early 2021 from 2.9% at the end of last year.

Europe was one of the global economy’s weak spots during 2019, with the IMF estimating that growth slowed to a six-year low as exports faltered and the manufacturing sector contracted.

By contrast, recent data show the U.S. economy remains on a solid footing, clocking a 2.1% annualized growth rate in the third quarter. The unemployment rate was 3.5% in December, a fifty-year low.

Data firm IHS Markit’s surveys of purchasing managers at businesses around the eurozone pointed to continued weakness in activity during January, according to figures released Friday. The composite Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, was unchanged at 50.9. A reading above 50.0 points to an increase in activity, while a reading below that level points to a decline.

The currency area’s manufacturing sector continued to contract, but more slowly than in previous months, while new orders were only slightly down on the previous month.

Figures released by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Friday showed world trade flows were 1.6% lower in November than a year earlier. That means it’s almost certain that 2019 was the weakest year for trade since the financial crisis.

In Europe, Germany has been hardest hit by the slowdown in overseas demand since the start of 2018, but the surveys indicated that new export orders fell only slightly in January, and less sharply than for 15 months. Its PMI rose to a five-month high, but other parts of the currency area were close to stagnation.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum’s meeting in Davos, Switzerland, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said recent developments will help underpin “a very stable economic development.”

“We are happy with the reduction in trade tensions,” he said. “It will have an effect on our export-oriented industries.”

Germany has been urged to go beyond its announced budget plans to boost growth, but Mr. Scholtz indicated that’s unlikely to happen, describing current policy as “very expansionary.”

The trade truce between the U.S. and China may help revive trade flows this year, but it isn’t clear how much that will benefit Europe. Under the deal, China has committed to buy an additional $200 billion in U.S. goods across 2020 and 2021. It may meet that target by cutting its purchases from other countries.

“The distribution of the benefits and costs as a result of trade diversion remains to be seen,” said Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank’s president, who was speaking on the same panel as Mr. Scholtz in Davos. “It’s not an all-win situation. “

The outlook for trade with the U.S. is also uncertain, with President Trump threatening to place tariffs on imports of automobiles if the European Union doesn’t agree to a new deal that is more favorable to American exporters.

The ECB Thursday concluded that rising protectionism still threatens to slow the eurozone’s economy, making it unlikely that it will soon consider a rise in its key interest rate.

By contrast, the surveys pointed to a rebound in the U.K. economy, which slowed in 2019 as businesses cut back on investment spending in the face of uncertainty about when and under what terms the country would leave the EU

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s victory in a December election opened the way for the U.K. to leave the bloc on Jan. 31 and under agreed terms, although businesses still don’t know what the rules governing trade will be from 2021.

The U.K.’s composite PMI jumped to 52.4 from 49.3 in December, reaching its highest level in almost 18 months and making a cut in the Bank of England’s key interest rate less likely when policy makers announce their decision on January 30.

A survey of Japanese purchasing managers carried a similar message to that from Germany, which is also one of the world’s leading exporters. The composite PMI rose to 51.1 from 48.6 in December, signaling a return to growth after a weak end to 2019. There were signs of a revival in export orders for manufactured goods, and the manufacturing PMI hit a five-month high.

In Davos, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he expects the economy to record another year of growth in the 1% to 1.5% range.

“Business investment has been quite robust,” he said. “We expect this strength will continue for some time.”