FT : EU regulators revolt over fund performance forecasts

EU regulators revolt over fund performance forecasts
Rare spat between Brussels and EU financial watchdogs piles pressure on policymakers to review controversial Priips rules

EU regulators have staged an unusual rebellion against Brussels lawmakers over reforms to consumer protection rules, marking the latest escalation in a long-running dispute centred on fund performance disclosures.

The EU’s banking, securities markets and insurance watchdogs said on Tuesday they had failed to reach an agreement on a compromise solution aimed at rectifying problems with the maligned regulations, known as Priips.

Priips, which came into force in 2018, introduced a requirement for providers of investment products to publish projections of their future performance in different market conditions. These forecasts have been decried as unreliable, with many funds generating wildly over-optimistic figures, such as the 523,000,000,000 per cent annualised return forecast by one provider.

In an attempt to fix the problems, the European Commission asked the EU’s three regulatory authorities to propose solutions. But the process has been fraught with conflict, with the commission and the regulators disagreeing about how far the reforms should go.

An earlier proposal by the regulators to allow funds to publish historical scenarios based on past performance data was rejected by the commission on the grounds it went against the original objective of the Priips legislation.

The regulators said in a letter on Tuesday they were “not in a position to formally submit” a final proposal, which would allow past performance data to be used but not to supplant future performance forecasts, because it failed to win the backing of all three authority boards. The securities market regulator and banking regulator supported the proposals, but some members of the board of the European insurance watchdog dissented.

Despite some opposition within its ranks, the regulators said in the letter that the final proposal represented a “balanced and proportionate” compromise.

The revolt is the first time that EU regulators have failed to endorse their own advice and will pile further pressure on the commission to look again at the controversial Priips rules. Despite a backlash from asset managers and investor groups, the commission has largely defended the regulations and resisted calls for a more comprehensive overhaul.

Julie Patterson, asset management regulatory change leader at KPMG, said the regulators’ mutiny represented “new procedural territory” and demonstrated how divisive the Priips rules had been for policymakers.

The chairs of the three regulators said they shared the dissenting board members’ view that past performance should be included in the main body of investor disclosure documents rather than in a separate publication.

“[Past performance] is key information to inform retail investors about the risk-reward profile of certain types of Priips,” the chairs said, adding that a more onerous legislative overhaul was necessary to enable this.

Sheila Nicoll, head of public policy at Schroders, said it was unclear whether the revolt by the regulators would force a rethink by the commission.

Ms Nicoll, who was part of an expert group that last month called for Brussels to overhaul Priips, said that despite the watchdogs’ “best efforts to engage with consumer groups and with practitioners, they have been constrained from the start”. The disagreement over the compromise solution added “another mess to what is already a very messy situation”, she said.

The commission could not immediately be reached for comment.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • OGI -6.6%, CETV -1.8%, NVS -1.5%, CCK -1.3%, CIT -1%, CBSH -0.8%

Other news:

  • ACAD -10.7% (Phase 3 study did not achieve statistical significance on primary endpoint; also announces FDA acceptance of sNDA filing for NUPLAZID)
  • CTSO -9.9% (stock offering; also guides Q2 revs slightly above consensus; REFRESH 2-AKI trial may restart this qtr)
  • KNSA -7% (commences $100 mln stock offering)
  • PIRS -5.8% (discloses partial clinical hold on phase 1 studies of PRS-343)
  • QIWI -2.5% (announces offering by selling stockholders)
  • VXX -2.4% (trading lower with futures up in pre-mkt)

Analyst comments:

  • MDRX -3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman)
  • IHRT -2.1% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
  • BHP -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup)
  • OC -0.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at The Benchmark Company)

>>> US Gapping up


Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:

  • HIBB +24.5% (says JulQ comps expected to exceed +70%; digital comps +200%), OMI +14.6% (guidance update), SBNY +6.1%, IBM +5.3% (largest EPS beat in past 4 qtrs, strong revenue upside as well), NUVA +5.2% (guides Q2 revs well ahead of consensus ests), CMA +4.4%, CDNS +4.1%, GPK +3.9%, MUSA +3.5%, UBS +3.2%, LMT +2.9%, PM +2.6%, BXS +2%, KO +2%, SNV +1.8%, LLNW +1.3%, STLD +1%, LOGI +1%

M&A news:

  • NBEV +69% (to acquire ARIIX)
  • RTIX +8.2% (closes on sale of OEM business, will change name and ticker)
  • SYNA +5.5% (to acquire DisplayLink for $305 mln)
  • DXC +1.3% (to sell healthcare software provider for $525 mln)
  • EBAY +1.2% (divests its Classifieds Group to Adevinta for $9.2 bln in cash and stock deal)

Select ETFs showing strength:

  • XLE +1.8%, IWM +1.2%, XLF +1.2%, QQQ +0.9%, DIA +0.9%, SPY +0.8%

Other news:

  • LXRX +44.3% (announces top-line results from four Phase 3 sotagliflozin studies in type 2 diabeites)
  • IFRX +16.7% (to enter Phase III development of IFX-1 in severe COVID-19 induced pneumonia)
  • OPK +15.4% (Opko Health disclosed as a guest on the CNBC program, "Mad Money", that BioReference (OPK unit) had reached an agreement in principle with the NFL to provide COVID-19 testing for the NFL)
  • FHB +8.8% (to join S&P SmallCap 600)
  • DKS +5.8% (in sympathy with strong comps from HIBB)
  • NVAX +3.7% (will present progress of NVX-CoV2373 on Tues morning)
  • PSTI +2.9% (issues shareholder letter from CEO)
  • CWH +2.7% (increases dividend)
  • MYOK +1% (MyoKardia and Fulcrum Therapeutics (FULC) announce multi-target collaboration to discover novel targeted therapies for genetic cardiomyopathies)

Analyst comments:

  • AAOI +9.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham)
  • NIO +6.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at CICC)
  • CDE +5.7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity)
  • DVN +5.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler)
  • HAL +5.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities)
  • PE +4.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler)
  • BNTX +4.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities)
  • ACI +4.1% (initiated with a Buy at Goldman, among others)
  • CIEN +3.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham)
  • FANG +3.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler)
  • LRCX +2.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley FBR)
  • SRE +1.9% (upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets)
  • AMN +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at SunTrust)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

  • Gapping up:
    • NBEV +82.2%, HIBB +22.3%, OPK +17.2%, FHB +8.8%, RTIX +8.2%, SBNY +6.1%, DKS +6%, IBM +5.4%, NUVA +5.2%, NVAX +4.6%, SYNA +4.5%, SYF +4.5%, GPK +3.9%, CDNS +3.8%, UBS +3.7%, VNO +3.4%, EBAY +2.4%, LMT +2%, BXS +2%, STLD +1.8%, XLE +1.4%, LLNW +1.4%, IWM +1.3%, XLF +1.3%, LOGI +1.2%, CIT +1.2%, DXC +1%, QQQ +1%, GNW +0.9%, DIA +0.9%, SPY +0.8%
  • Gapping down:
    • CTSO -14.2%, PIRS -11.3%, ACAD -9.9%, KNSA -7%, OPCH -4.8%, OGI -3.3%, QIWI -2.9%, EBS -2.6%, ULTA -2.5%, VXX -2.3%, CETV -1.8%, CCK -1.3%, ZION -0.9%, NVS -0.8%, CBSH -0.8%, VALE -0.7%

FT : M&A banks: deal or no deal

M&A banks: deal or no deal
Without blockbuster deals producing multimillion-dollar fees, senior bankers look very expensive

Many companies, even troubled ones, have managed to raise cash with relative ease during the coronavirus pandemic. Yet when it comes to spending the money, buying other companies has not been a priority. Last week, Wall Street banks reported earnings that showed a jump in overall investment banking revenue. The bulk of those fees came from selling stocks and debt, not advising on M&A deals. Advisory revenue for the first half of 2020 fell between 5 per cent and 11 per cent across JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

Just how painful this year will be for deals is going to become more clear this week, as independent banks that only offer advice provide their outlooks along with second-quarter results.

Because deal fees are paid upon closing there is a lag between market conditions and bank revenues and profits. A slump in 2020 will largely be felt in 2021. Wall Street estimates for the two largest US independent banks, Evercore and Lazard, show analysts have lowered revenue expectations for 2021 by 14 per cent each since the end of 2019. 

Lazard has a large asset management business that can generate steady revenue. But without a flurry of blockbuster deals producing multimillion-dollar fees, senior bankers start to look very expensive.

Two small rivals may have a better chance of performing well. Shares of PJT Partners and Houlihan Lokey are up at least 15 per cent this year. The former has a large private equity fundraising unit along with a significant practice advising distressed companies. It is in its growth phase. Houlihan Lokey also focuses on troubled companies but sticks to unglamorous middle-market private company deals that are more resilient through economic cycles.

The question that remains is what happens if the underlying economy picks up steam in 2021. Will Corporate America be bold enough to resume buying and selling assets? Forward earnings estimates have fallen much more sharply than stock prices. Average price-to-earnings ratios have jumped more than 50 per cent so far in 2020. A rebound in dealmaking appears to be priced in — even if it is premature.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 21st of July 2020 - V2(+)

>>> Up
* Adyen Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF (+)
* Babcock Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 347 pence
* DWS Raised to Buy at Commerzbank; PT 40 euros (+)
* Fresnillo Raised to Buy at Citi
* Hays Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 153 pence
* HelloFresh PT Raised to 61 euros from 47 euros at Deutsche Bank
* Knorr-Bremse Raised to Hold at MainFirst; PT 95 euros
* Premier Oil Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 50 pence
* Topdanmark Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 278 kroner

>>> Down
* Almirall Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT 12 euros (+)
* Antofagasta Cut to Neutral at Citi
* Banco Santander Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT 2 euros (+)
* Boliden Cut to Sell at Citi
* Carnival Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $15.30
* Carnival Plc Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 1,040 pence
* Evolution Gaming Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities
* Forterra Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 194 pence
* Kion Cut to Hold at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 74 euros (+)
* Neste Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse; PT 30.50 euros (+)
* Nornickel GDRs Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $22

>>> Initiation
* Antofagasta Rated New Neutral at CIBC; PT 1,100 pence
* AT&S Rated New Buy at Commerzbank; PT 21 euros (+)
* CM Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT 18 euros
* Seeing Machines Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 7 pence
* Silence Therapeutics Rated New Buy at Investec; PT 620 pence (+)

>>> Call
* Cellnex 2Q Results Reassure, Focus on New Deal Plans: Goldman (+)
* Europe Midcap Miners’ Ebitda Ests. Raised, 2Q to Be Trough: Citi
* GVC Stock Will Be Pressured by Widened U.K. Tax Probe: Berenberg
* Kuehne + Nagel Shares May Climb on ‘Strong’ 2Q Beat, Citi Says (+)
* Lindt’s 1H Results Are Better Than Expected, Vontobel Says (+)
* Premier Oil Raised by Peel Hunt on Debt Outlook, BP Acquisitions
* Ted Baker’s Update Shows Strategic Progress: Liberum (+)